Northwestern is the wrong team in the wrong place here. Michigan State is an awesome 31-0 straight up vs Big Ten teams with losing records since 1997 (22-9 against the spread), 28-2 straight up in its last 30 games with the Wildcats and 34-1 straight up off a loss against all losing teams.

With the Spartans at a pocket filling 20-2-1 against the spread in their last 23 straight-up postseason wins, and never having failed to cover the spread off back-to-back losses vs losing teams under Tom Izzo, Northwestern is in trouble. It hurts the Purple Cats even more that they have averaged just 55 ppg in Big Ten tournaments and that Michigan State is a perfect 45-0 straight up when allowing less than 60 to a sub .550 team (34-11 against the spread). No mercy.

Prediction: Michigan St-74 Northwestern-50

Play: Michigan State -12