WASHINGTON IN A PATHETIC FUNK
In case you hadn’t noticed, Washington is having a hard time winning recently. I mean a real hard time.

They just got swept, at home, by San Francisco, one of the weakest teams in the league besides the Nationals themselves. And their offensive production is truly futile; other than an anomalous 10-run outburst in the second game of a doubleheader a few days ago, the Nats are struggling to score more than once a game.

Pittsburgh starter Paul Maholm, while not exactly dominant, can be effective, particularly against weaker lineups and at home. He did get hit hard by Washington the first time he faced them this year, which was somewhat of a surprise, although Maholm is not so good that a shelling is ever out of the question.

But he should fare better in this one and Tim Redding, starting on the other side for the Nats, is reverting pretty solidly back to his mean of sub-mediocrity, so the Pirates should be able to score a few and put themselves in good position to win.

This line has moved considerably since its opening in the -130s, and if it keeps moving, as I expect it will, the value will disappear. Still, until it gets into the -150s, I still think Pittsburgh is comfortably the right side in this one.

IFFY STARTING PITCHING IN CINCY
The St. Louis-Cincinnati game is an intriguing matchup in many respects. I am not at all convinced that Reds’ starter Homer Bailey is in any way ready to be in the majors, and his last start against Philly was worse than it may look at first glance with the 2.84 ERA attached to it. Still, Bailey may be no worse off than St. Louis starter Mitchell Boggs, who was pretty good in general in the minors this year, but not necessarily ready to handle Cincinnati’s assault of lefty sluggers at Great American Park.

If this game does turn into a shootout, the Reds should have the upper hand, and the line in the -120s the betting odds are giving them is probably a little low. I’ll be waiting for line movements and lineup announcements and looking to bet some combo of overs and run lines here.

OSWALT’S STRUGGLES REFLECTED IN LINE
Few people would have predicted that a Seth McClung/Roy Oswalt showdown in June in Houston would see the Astros as only a -130s range favorite, but that’s what we’ve got here. Which Oswalt will show up for this one – the 7 IP, 3 ER one, or the 6 IP, 6 ER one? Who knows, but if Oswalt is not in decline, he needs to start proving it soon.

Still, I think Houston is a bit underrated at this line. Oswalt remains a guy who has the capability of crafting quality starts, as borderline as they may be, and McClung is having problems coming up with the stamina needed to go deep into games as a starter. McClung is probably better suited to relief work, and the Astros’ lively bats could easily get to him for a big inning at some point in this game if he weakens a bit.

The Brewers’ lineup is still about average, and unless Oswalt has some kind of injury that is contributing to his struggles, he should be able to handle them reasonably effectively. If the game is close in the late innings, Houston should have a decided edge.

WANG TRYING TO RIGHT HIS SHIP
What’s wrong with Chien-Ming Wang? No one’s quite sure, although reports say it’s purely a mechanical issue, and one similar to those he has had in the past. So he’s been in the bullpen, watching video, etc. etc. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he fixed things overnight, but until he does, I have to assume the bad outings will continue.

Oakland starter Dana Eveland has been having problems of his own lately, and while he doesn’t have near the track record of Wang, he has also only been struggling for two starts now.

So to my eyes, the starting pitching matchup is a bit of a wash, which makes Oakland’s home dog line in the +110 range look somewhat attractive. Still, you get the sense that Wang is more likely to have a good start than Eveland here, so I will probably lay off this one considering all the major uncertainties involved.