The NBA Draft usually doesn’t have an immediate impact on the betting odds. There’s nothing usual about this Thursday night’s draft, however.
The Chicago Bulls have the first overall pick despite going into the draft lottery with a 1.7-percent chance of winning. All indications at press time were that the Bulls would select Derrick Rose, the point guard prodigy who led the Memphis Tigers to the brink of the NCAA men’s basketball title. Rose projects to be an instant upgrade over incumbent Kirk Hinrich, who is no slouch himself.
The Bulls are 40-1 on the futures market to win the 2009 NBA Finals. Last year’s squad was one of the preseason favorites to come out on top in the Eastern Conference before stumbling out of the gate, firing coach Scott Skiles and finishing 11th in the East at 33-49 (36-46 against the spread). The problem wasn’t Skiles, but a lack of cohesive talent and leadership on the floor. Rose will provide both in ample amounts.
The team he’ll lead will also look a lot different than the one that lost 10 of its first 12 games in 2007-08. As part of their deadline deal, the Bulls swapped a pair of underperforming players with huge contracts in Larry Hughes and Ben Wallace. Hughes’ slashing style is a better fit for the Bulls than it was in Cleveland, and removing Wallace from the team gave undervalued rookies Joakim Noah (15.54 PER) and Aaron Gray (14.02 PER) the chance to develop. Chicago could jump right back into the mix in the East once Rose joins forces with these young, talented players.
The Miami Heat are also due for an upgrade. They were last in the NBA last year at 15-67 (35-46-1 ATS), but they were also putting a D-League team on the court toward the end of the season. Dwyane Wade was shut down in early March. Shawn Marion followed soon after. Both are expected back and healthy after Marion decided not to opt out of the last year of his contract at $17.8 million.
They’re about to be joined by a considerable amount of talent. Reports at press time had the Heat shopping the No. 2 pick, looking to trade down to No. 4 or No. 5 and select a point guard of their own rather than take highly-rated power forward Michael Beasley from Kansas State. The most compelling offer has the cost-cutting Memphis Grizzlies (at No. 5) offering to trade up, with shooting guard Mike Miller (16.18 PER) and point guard Kyle Lowry (14.32 PER) going to Florida. The Heat would then wait for either O.J. Mayo or Jerryd Bayless to fall into their laps at No. 5. Both guards worked out for Miami to rave reviews.
How Miami decides to deal with the No. 2 pick will set the dominoes tumbling for the rest of the draft. This will surely not be the only major trade this week. The Toronto Raptors have already started the proceedings by sending point guard T.J. Ford to the Indiana Pacers as part of a package for forward-center Jermaine O’Neal. It’s a heck of a package for Indiana, as well: Ford, center Rasho Nesterovic, the No. 17 pick in this year’s draft, and a later pick to balance out the dollars for salary-cap purposes.
It’s a major gamble for Toronto, but a frontcourt combo of O’Neal (14.40 PER in injury-limited action) and Chris Bosh (23.88 PER) working with Jose Calderon (20.51 PER) at the point would make the Raptors a solid value pick at 25-1 to win the title. Indiana, meanwhile, would finally get a point guard it can trust in Ford (20.37 PER). The question for Ford, as it is with O’Neal, is health. But the opportunity to get anyone but Jamaal Tinsley (12.75 PER) on the floor is too good for the Pacers to pass up.
ESPN will broadcast the 2008 NBA Draft from Madison Square Garden in New York starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.