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Seahawks and Packers kick off next round
Thursday, April 24, 2008 12:53 PM ET
With many having already etched the Patriots on the Vince Lombardi Trophy, seven other teams are looking to upset the apple cart and spoil New England's perfect season. This week's Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs opens with the Seahawks in Green Bay to face the Packers and Mother Nature. Can Matt Hasselbeck and Seattle top Bret Favre and expected snow flurries?
We saw some tight battles during the NFL Wild Card round, but in the end, the favorites prevailed in three of the four matchups. The lines on both Tennessee-San Diego and Jacksonville-Pittsburgh proved to be tight, so whether you got paid or not in those games may boil down to where you did your shopping.
Favorites promise to take even more of the spotlight in the Divisional round, thanks to the power of the bye week. Teams with the extra time off are 25-16-1 against the spread since 1994, although they were famously swept off the board last year at 0-4 ATS.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-8, 40)
Saturday, Jan 12, 4:30 pm (ET) FOX
The Seahawks were down 14-13 to Washington in the fourth quarter before scoring the go-ahead touchdown and then returning two errant Todd Collins passes to paydirt. Seattle’s charmed season continues; this team is now 11-6 straight up and 10-7 ATS on the season, thanks mainly to the softest schedule in the entire NFL.
The Packers won’t be able to take Seattle lightly. Green Bay has also been able to live the high life at 13-3 SU and 12-3-1 ATS on the backs of the league’s also-rans. The Packers had the No. 29-ranked strength of schedule in retrospect. That helped Green Bay immensely as the season wore on and the defense grew tired; the over got paid in each of the last seven Packers contests. The posted total of 40 points is definitely in reach with Brett Favre and Matt Hasselbeck trading blows.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-13, 48)
Saturday, Jan 12, 8:00 pm (ET) CBS
The Jags had their Wild Card game over the Pittsburgh Steelers well in hand, then allowed three TDs in the fourth quarter before salvaging a 31-29 victory on a last-minute Josh Scobee figgie. That didn’t impress the books; Jacksonville was laying 11½ to 13 points to the mighty Patriots at the open. The defensive collapse also allowed the over to cash in for the seventh time in a row for in a Jaguars game.
That’s quite a big spread considering Jacksonville went 11-5 SU and ATS during the regular season coming out of the AFC South. New England’s undefeated record (at 10-6 ATS, including 1-5 ATS since Thanksgiving) was partially assisted by poor competition in the AFC East. The Patriots remain the best team in the NFL over the past 12 years, according to the efficiency experts at Football Outsiders. But the way New England geared down over the winter has to be a little nerve-wracking for fans and bettors alike. The total was 48 at press time and could dip during the week.
San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts (-9, 48)
Sunday, Jan 13, 1:00 pm (ET) CBS
The bye week won’t be more important to anyone than the Colts. Most of the offensive starters rode the pine in the season finale against the Titans, which Indy still almost won before bowing 16-10. Peyton Manning should have his full complement of players Sunday, including WR Marvin Harrison. Even factoring in the loss to Tennessee, the Colts finished with the No. 2 team in the league in efficiency and the No. 12 team in the past 12 years.
On the other side of the ball will be a Chargers team that was blanked by the Titans defense in the first half, but rallied late for an ugly 17-6 victory. Tight end and leading receiver Antonio Gates sprained his left big toe during the second quarter and had to be carted off the field. He’s listed as questionable for Sunday. The Chargers did just enough without him against Tennessee; they won’t be able to get away with that against Manning and the Colts offense.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7½, 47)
Sunday, Jan 13, 4:30 pm (ET) FOX
The smallest spread of the Divisional round goes to the Dallas Cowboys, who have dropped the cash in their last four games. This is the third time Dallas will face their divisional rivals from Jersey; the Cowboys swept the other two games SU and ATS with double-digit margins of victory. But the last time we saw Tony Romo in the playoffs, he was muffing the hold for the would-be winning field goal against Seattle.
Romo has his occasional yips as a sophomore pivot, but overall he’s been sensational this year with 36 TD throws drowning out his 19 interceptions. Eli Manning is capable of playing at that level, as he showed in the surprise 24-14 Wild Card upset of Tampa Bay (-3), but he’s also had seven games this year with passer ratings under 70 (Romo had three, including the meaningless season finale). His Giants are a wounded team that will find no surcease at the hands of the Cowboys; only another Manning miracle will do.