Eli Manning and the New York Giants are sitting at 10/1 to successfully defend their Super Bowl title. Will Adam 'Previous Known As Pacman' Jones and the Dallas Cowboys spoil the Giants' repeat hopes?

The NFL betting season is officially underway. Futures are up for division and conference titles, the Super Bowl, and the over/under on regular-season wins for each team.

The speculative nature of these wagers increases the closer you get to the championship. It’s high-risk, high-reward stuff, but this is the right time to jump in. Training camps are a month away; baseball is still on the front page of the sports section, and the casual NFL bettor is not paying much attention right now.

The simplest strategy for betting the conference and Super Bowl futures is to narrow the field to teams with a reasonable chance of winning, then pick the one which is most undervalued in the market. The New England Patriots, for example, are the favorites to win the AFC at 3-2 and the Super Bowl at 5-2. They are not undervalued, not even after blowing last year’s perfect season by losing the championship to the New York Giants as 12½-point favorites.

The Giants, on the other hand, have some value at 4-1 to win the NFC and 10-1 to defend their title. This was one of the hottest teams in the latter stages of the 2007 season, going 7-2 straight up and 8-1 against the spread from December onward. The development of QB Eli Manning and the team’s new 4-3 defense under first-year coordinator Steve Spagnuolo provided the championship fuel; Spagnuolo signed a three-year contract to stay with Big Blue, arguably a more important offseason news item than the retirement of DE Michael Strahan.

From a value perspective, however, the Giants don’t have much room for growth. They’ve already risen from 5-1 (NFC) and 12-1 (Super Bowl) at the open; only the Dallas Cowboys (2-1, 9-2) have shorter betting odds in their conference. Dallas has also risen from 3-1 and 6-1, in part because of the partial lifting of CB Adam (no longer Pacman) Jones’ suspension. Not a lot of value left there for America’s Team.

The only competitive team in the NFC to see its odds shrink is the Green Bay Packers. They slipped from 11-4 and 7-1 following the retirement of QB Brett Favre to 5-1 and 12-1. This is a better opportunity for a speculative wager, based on the potential of new starting QB Aaron Rodgers. He’s had three years under Favre’s wing, and his 20-for-28 performance last year in spot duty was very encouraging for Packers supporters.

In the AFC, last year’s top clubs are all crowding behind the Patriots at the top of the odds list:

TEAM	AFC Odds	SB Odds
Colts	3/1	6/1
Jaguars	5/1	10/1
Chargers	5/1	10/1
Steelers	9/1	18/1

Any of these four would be a better value pick than New England, but the return on investment remains fairly low. Pittsburgh has the most value among this top tier of Super Bowl candidates; the Steelers were champions just two seasons ago, and the first year of the Mike Tomlin Era proved to be successful at 10-6 (8-8 ATS). The Steelers upgraded their running game by drafting Rashard Mendenhall in the first round, a wise move given the ineffectiveness of the Willie Parker-Najeh Davenport combo. Pittsburgh ranked 17th in the league in rushing efficiency last year.

None of the aforementioned teams would be as big a Super Bowl surprise as the 2007 Giants. For those looking to go deep, the AFC’s Cincinnati Bengals (18-1, 38-1) and the NFC’s Philadelphia Eagles (18-1, 45-1) have the most to offer. They both underperformed last year according to “Estimated Wins” as compiled by Football Outsiders; the 7-9 Bengals had 8½ Estimated Wins, while the 8-8 Eagles had 9½.

Philadelphia looks especially tasty after a strong draft and the offseason acquisitions of CB Asante Samuel and RB Lorenzo Booker. The health of QB Donovan McNabb is always a concern, but at these odds, a small investment could reap huge profits.

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