CFL Week 6 Betting Preview
Thursday, July 31, 2008 09:35 AM ET
Using a QB-by-Committee, the Saskatchewan Roughriders have darted out to a perfect 5-0 start on the season. But making it 6-0 will be a tall order Saturday at the Calgary Stampeders.
Hamilton (52½) at Montreal (-10)
Thursday, July 31, 7:00 PM (ET)
The Alouettes are coming off a three-game losing streak and all three losses came from tough Western Division opponents. In fact, Montreal had a chance to win all three games, but found a way to lose them instead of putting their opponents away!
The good news for Montreal: They face a division opponent who is finding their old habits and the Tiger-Cats are 1-4 SU on the season. Casey Printers will be sitting this one out and Richie Williams will get the nod this Thursday night at Molson Percival Stadium. Hamilton is far from being road warriors with their 3-17 SU road record the last two years and they only manager 17.86 points per game.
Montreal has lost a bit of that dominance at home compared to seasons past, as they are 12-9 SU the last two years at home, and when they are a home favorite in this role, the Under is 12-5-0.
Ron’s forecast: Montreal 32 Hamilton 9
Tiger-Cats @ Alouettes History: Hamilton is 13-8-1 ATS, 6-16 SU and the O/U/P is 9-13-0.
ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When Hamilton plays on the road as an underdog before a division game and the total is 51½ to 54, the Under is 8-2-0 for the Tiger-Cats since ’96.
British Columbia (-2) at Edmonton (54)
Thursday, July 31, 10:00 PM (ET)
The Edmonton Eskimos have lost their top receiver of the season Jason Tucker to a neck injury, and the week prior they lost Fred Perry to a broken fibula and dislocated ankle. Losing Tucker will be a huge loss foro the Eskimos as he was Ricky Ray’s favorite receiver when throwing the long ball and he will be missed.
It’s tough to gage if the Eskimos are for real at 3-2 SU, because three of their five games were played vs. Eastern Division opponents and the East squads are 6-14 SU combined with not one of them having a winning record.
As for the Lions, they seem to have turned the corner and are enjoying a three-game winning streak. The Lions are coming off an impressive come from behind win last week over Montreal and are averaging 35 points per game in their last three outings. BC is 9-4 SU as a road favorite the last two years and the Under is 11-2-0 for the Lions in this role. Plus, when the Lions are on the road during Weeks 4-8, after a non-division game, they are 12-3-0 ATS in this spot since 1996.
Ron’s forecast: BC Lions 29 Edmonton 26
Lions @ Eskimos History: BC is 8-11-0 ATS, 8-11 SU and the O/U/P is 8-11-0.
ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When any CFL team plays as a road favorite after a non-conference game that was after a non-division game, coming off a game in which they scored 35 points or more and coming off a two-game homestand, the road team is 11-4 SU since ’96.
Winnipeg (49) at Toronto (-3½)
Friday, Aug 1, 7:00 PM (ET)
All it took for the Bombers to get their first win of the year was a second string QB from Boise State and a little luck in the dying seconds of a football game in Week 5!
Ryan Dinwiddie looked like a season veteran last week vs. Calgary as a 5½-point home underdog. Now the Bombers get their second test of the week vs. the Toronto Argonauts at the Rogers Centre, a place they haven’t done well at since 1996 as they are only 4-14-1 SU in Toronto and they’ll be facing an Argos team looking to bounce back after a heart-breaking loss in Saskatchewan last weekend. When the Winnipeg Blue Bombers are a road team vs. a division opponent and it’s between Week 4 and 8, they are 6-13 SU in this spot since 1996.
The Argos seem to have weathered the QB controversy storm, as Kerry Joseph is settling down calling his own plays and the Boatmen are gelling on offense with 28.3 points per game. However their defense, normally their strength, has been missing in action this season and owns the second-worst points against average at 30.8 this season. Plus the Argos don’t play well as a small home favorite since ‘96; when the Argonauts are a 3½-point or less home favorite, they are 12-11-1 SU and the Under is 16-8-0.
In a nutshell, because the Argos are a public favorite most of the time, they tend to get too much respect from the public and the books are smart enough to put a low number to make a quick buck.
Ron’s forecast: Winnipeg 27 Toronto 17
Blue Bombers @ Argonauts History: Winnipeg is 7-12-0 ATS, 4-14-1 SU and the O/U/P is 10-9-0.
ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When Toronto plays as a home favorite vs. a division opponent and are allowing 28 points or more, the Under is 11-2-0 since ’99.
Saskatchewan (54½) at Calgary (-6)
Saturday, Aug 2, 8:00 PM (ET)
The biggest surprise of the CFL season is no doubt the Saskatchewan Roughriders at 5-0. What’s more impressive is they’ve gone unbeaten using their QB by committee format.
Marcus Crandell returns to the starting rotation this week, as Darian Durant suffered some cracked ribs last week vs. Toronto and is out until late August. Plus they will be without the services of Canadian receiver Andy Fantuz who suffered a broken leg and he will be out 10 weeks.
If there was ever a “due factor” for the Roughriders, Week 6 would be the spot to play against the Green Riders in Calgary. To be honest, the Stampeders might have got caught looking ahead last week in Winnipeg, as they fell 32-28 in the dying seconds.
Furthermore, here’s an interesting angle for the Under: Whenever a team is facing a CFL team that is 5-0 on the season, they are 2-2 SU and ATS in the next game and the Under is a perfect 4-0-0.
Calgary has been tough to beat at home where they are 15-5-1 SU and 14-7-0 ATS the last two years at McMahon Stadium. Plus, when the Roughriders are a road team vs. a division opponent and the total is 54½ or more, the Under is 13-2-0.
Ron’s forecast: Calgary 32 Saskatchewan 17
Roughriders @ Stampeders History: Saskatchewan is 10-10-0 ATS, 6-14 SU and the O/U/P is 9-11-0.
ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When any CFL team plays as a home favorite before a division game, coming off one ATS loss and off a game in which they scored 28 points or less and allowing 32-35 points, the Under is 11-1-0 since ’96.