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NFL - NFL Betting Review Week 10: No home sweet home
NFL Betting Review Week 10: No home sweet home
Tuesday, November 11, 2008 08:57 AM ET
Home teams took it on the spread in Week 10 to continue a season-long losing skid. Among the 13 NFL tilts last week, visitors cashed in 10 of them pushing home teams to 63-79-2 ATS on the season. Among the travelers to pay out was Tennessee as the Titans rolled into Chicago as 1-point favorites and remained perfect on the season at 9-0 SU with a 21-14 win vs. Rex Grossman and the Bears.
Home-field advantage? There was no such thing in the NFL in Week 10. Home teams went 7-6 straight up and 3-10 against the spread, falling to 63-79-2 ATS on the season.
Away favorites were 3-0 last week to improve to 25-16 ATS, turning the biggest profit of the campaign at 61.0 percent among all NFL matchups. And the over went 8-5 to extend its record on the year to 74-64 (53.6 percent).
The fun started on Thursday night when the Denver Broncos (1-6-1 ATS at that point) went into Cleveland as 3-point underdogs and left as 34-30 winners. Broncos QB Jay Cutler erupted for three touchdown passes in the fourth quarter as Denver took advantage of a series of Browns miscues. Brady Quinn was 23-for-35 for 239 yards, two TDs and zero interceptions in a losing effort.
Playing at Ford Field didn’t seem to help Daunte Culpepper too much – which makes sense, given he only joined the Detroit Lions last week. Culpepper was 5-for-10 with an interception in three ineffective quarters against the Jacksonville Jaguars, then Drew Stanton came in and got sacked five times. Jacksonville won 38-14 as 5½-point road dogs to drop Detroit to 0-9 SU (3-6 ATS); the Jags stay alive in the AFC South at 4-5 SU (3-6 ATS).
While the Lions remain winless, the Tennessee Titans are still undefeated at 9-0 (8-1 ATS) after taking down the Chicago Bears 21-14 at Soldier Field. It was QB Kerry Collins winning it with his arm, throwing two TD passes against a Bears defense that held Tennessee (-1) to 20 yards rushing. Rex Grossman was 20-for-37 with one TD and one pick in a nondescript start for Chicago.
Even when home teams were winning, they weren’t getting paid. The Minnesota Vikings (-2½) needed a late TD run from Adrian Peterson to overcome the Green Bay Packers 28-27. Gus Frerotte tossed three interceptions for the Vikings, one of which Nick Collins returned 59 yards to the end zone. But the Minnesota defense scored a pair of safeties in the second quarter while keeping Aaron Rodgers from throwing any TD passes. Green Bay nonetheless improves to 6-3 ATS (4-5 SU). The Vikings are tied with Chicago atop the NFC North at 5-4 SU and 3-6 ATS.
As poor as the NFC North is, the NFC West is even worse. The only remotely good team is the Arizona Cardinals (6-3 SU and ATS), who beat the San Francisco 49ers 29-24 but failed to beat the betting odds as 9.5-point home faves. The Niners are stuck at 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS alongside the St. Louis Rams, who were drilled 47-3 by the Jets (-9½). The Seattle Seahawks are also 2-7, but less in debt at 4-5 ATS after their narrow 21-19 loss at Miami (-9).
Bill Parcells has to be loving this. After three straight wins, his Dolphins are 5-4 SU and ATS, just one game out of first place in the AFC East behind two of his former employers, the Jets and the New England Patriots (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS). The Pats beat Buffalo 20-10 to hold down Gillette Stadium as 3½-point home faves. All four teams have winning records, although the Bills are holding on by a thread at 5-4 (4-5 ATS) after losing three in a row.
Rounding out our parade of mediocrity, the San Diego Chargers had to stave off a 2-point conversion attempt to beat the Kansas City Chiefs 20-19 at Qualcomm Stadium. San Diego (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) was a 14½-point favorite against the worst team in the AFC West, but at least Kansas City is profitable at 1-8 SU and 5-4 ATS. The Chargers were booed by their own fans as they went into the dressing room down 13-6; LaDainian Tomlinson ran for just 78 yards on 22 carries against one of the worst rush defenses in the league. Switching defensive co-ordinators isn’t going to be enough in San Diego.