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NFL - Packers & Bears highlight Week 11 NFL Betting
Packers & Bears highlight Week 11 NFL Betting
Saturday, November 15, 2008 07:43 AM ET
The NFL's 11th week got off to an excellent start Thursday night with Brett Favre and the New York Jets coming away from Foxboro with a 34-31 OT win over the New England Patriots. Now Favre's former mates in Green Bay look to throw the NFC North into a three-way deadlock when the Aaron Rodgers and the Packers host their longtime rivals the Chicago Bears at what should be a frosty Lambeau Field.
You can tell this is real football now. The New York Jets and the New England Patriots had a whale of a game Thursday night, with the Jets coming out on top 34-31 in overtime. The Patriots had won seven consecutive overtime games up to that point, but the coin flip went the other way and New England didn’t get the ball back.
New York is now a game ahead of the Pats in the AFC East at 7-3 (6-4 ATS). Looks like Brett Favre is in a pretty good spot right now.
Week 11 NFL matchups continue Sunday with the following three games part of the slate.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-4)
Sunday, Nov 16, 1:00 p.m. (ET) FOX
Favre’s former employers, on the other hand, are 4-5 SU and in third place in the NFC North, a game behind the Bears and Vikings. But we can blame bad luck for Green Bay’s predicament. According to the stat saviors at Football Outsiders, Green Bay is No. 7 in the league in efficiency and good for 5.5 Estimated Wins. Chicago is No. 14 in efficiency, also at 5.5 EW. The difference can be seen in their performance against the betting odds; the Packers are 6-3 ATS and the Bears are 4-4-1 ATS.
Making the switch to QB Aaron Rodgers certainly hasn’t hurt the Packers. Rodgers is playing like one of the elite pivots in the NFL with 13 touchdowns and just five interceptions for a passer rating of 93.3. That’s fifth in the league, ahead of Favre at 89.8 heading into Week 11. Green Bay’s rushing defense has been the team’s weakest link, and losing top LB Nick Barnett for the season will not help matters.
QB Kyle Orton (ankle) was treated gingerly in practice on Wednesday and Thursday and could be a game-time decision. The Packers have weathered some injuries and stayed very strong against the pass, so the Bears are asking for trouble if Rex Grossman starts again. He has a 3.7-percent career interception rate compared to Orton’s 2.7 percent.
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (-7)
Sunday, Nov 16, 1:00 p.m. (ET) CBS
While the tundra at Lambeau Field will be near-frozen, the weather is expected to be relatively nice in East Rutherford: partly cloudy, 50 degrees. In a way, it’ll be a disappointment to see these two smashmouth teams playing in anything other than extremely challenging conditions. This could be a Super Bowl preview; New York is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS; Baltimore is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS.
If you had Ravens QB Joe Flacco at 50-1 to win Rookie of the Year honors, you might be onto something. Flacco hasn’t thrown a single pick in his last four games, but he has thrown six of his seven TD passes on the season. None of those four teams was especially difficult – the Giants have the No. 8-ranked pass defense in the league, so they should be a stiffer challenge for the former Delaware Blue Hen.
New York’s best feature this year has been its rushing game. While QB Eli Manning (88.8 passer rating) has kept a steady hand on the tiller, the Giants tailbacks are easily first in the NFL with 5.2 rushing yards per attempt. They’re calling Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw “Earth, Wind and Fire.” Does that mean Manning gets to be Boney M.?
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+1½)
Sunday, Nov 16, 8:15 p.m. (ET) NBC
This is QB Tony Romo’s return to duty for Dallas, who went 1-2 SU and ATS in his absence. That’s enough for oddsmakers to favor the Cowboys on the road against a Washington team that is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in its last four. It wasn’t a particularly tough stretch of opponents for the ‘Skins, either: St. Louis (+12), Cleveland (+7) and Pittsburgh (+1) at home, and Detroit (+7) on the road.
As the underdog, Washington is 2-1 SU and ATS this year. All three games were on the road, including a 26-24 win in Week 4 against the Cowboys (-10.5). Dallas is just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS against the ‘Skins since Romo took over the QB job from Drew Bledsoe. But Washington may be without RB Clinton Portis (5.0 yards per carry). The Associated Press says Portis is “unlikely to play,” which leaves Ladell Betts (4.1 yards per carry) running with a knee brace against the No. 24-ranked rush defense in the league. We’ll see what happens Sunday night when a resistible force meets a moveable object.