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Red Wings and Penguins one game away from Finals
Tuesday, May 26, 2009 04:29 PM ET
When both the Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins jumped out to 2-0 series leads, it looked like it was only a matter of time before they put their opponents away and met for the second straight year in the Stanley Cup finals. Now that reality looks even closer with both teams just one win away. Can Carolina or Chicago do anything to stop these well oiled machines, or will both of these series end without a hitch?
#4 Pittsburgh Penguins (3-0) vs. #6 Carolina Hurricanes (0-3)
Game 4, Tuesday, May 26, 7:30 PM
After looking very sloppy and still eking out a victory in game one, Pittsburgh put it all together in game two and delivered an impressive offensive assault, topping Carolina 7-4.
Game three was the game that I thought Carolina would take a stand and make a series of it again on their home ice. This was clearly not the case as the Penguins took the momentum of game two with them to Carolina, handily defeating them 6-2 in front of thousands of disappointed fans.
So what should we look for in game four? It is difficult to bet against a team like Carolina with their back against the wall considering their well-documented never say die attitude; but if they weren’t going to say die, wouldn’t they have shown a little bit more in game three? They appear to be completely outclassed in this series, as even Cam Ward who has been their backbone in the playoffs has been getting shelled. And as Pittsburgh proved in game one, they don’t need their best effort to beat this team, either.
As much as I would have had trouble believing Carolina would get swept if you’d told me before the series started, I don’t think +110 is enough to entice me to bet against it. I think Pittsburgh is well worth a wager at around -120, but I’m taking an even closer look at the puckline. Pittsburgh -1.5 is going off at about +225. Considering they won game two by three goals and game three by four goals, this seems like a great price to me. If Carolina is able to make some adjustments or use the motivation of not getting swept to keep this game close, there is a great chance that they win the game outright. But if Pittsburgh continues to dominate this series and takes an early two or three goal lead, maybe Carolina will finally feel overwhelmed and just fold. If Pittsburgh wins tonight, there’s a good chance it is by more than one goal.
The Pick: Pittsburgh -1.5 (+225)
#2 Detroit Red Wings (3-1) vs. #4 Chicago Blackhawks (1-3)
Game 5, Wednesday, May 27, 7:30 PM
Cristobal Huet is a good goaltender, but he blew the chance to instill some confidence in his team and make a series of it in game four when he gave up five goals through the first two periods of play. Detroit was just too overpowering, continuing to make the Blackhawks pay for their lax defense.
From a side and moneyline perspective, I really don’t see much of an angle in this game. Despite a few lopsided scores in games one and four, Chicago played them close in the first three games, tied at 2-2 in the third period in game one, losing in overtime in game two, and winning in overtime in game three. Against a team that has proven they can hang tough, I really don’t want to lay -240 on the moneyline or take only +125 on the puckline. On the flipside, I can’t really endorse taking the Blackhawks in Detroit, either.
If you’ve been reading my articles you already know what I’m going to say. Bet the over. Before the series started I preached how easy the over would be in this series, and it is 3-1 so far with seven goals being scored in all three. Why the books are continuing to give away free money and leave it at 5.5 instead of raising it to six is beyond me.
The Pick: Over 5.5, -130