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NHL referee trends often overlooked by handicappers
Saturday, November 28, 2009 02:26 PM ET
Just as some MLB umps call a tighter strike zone and some NBA refs allow for more contact, the zebras on skates also affect the outcome of games in the NHL.
Handicapping tools in pro hockey are certainly similar to other sports. Studying home and road records, over/under trends, schedule advantages, offense and defense numbers and injuries are all important factors.
However, one handicapping tool that is often overlooked is checking the trends of the men who are calling the penalties. Yes, the referees blowing the whistle also have their own trends.
Some refs will call tight games, whistling almost every little infraction. This usually results in high-scoring affairs, as the participating teams are frequently on the power play.
Other referees subscribe to the “boys will be boys” philosophy, not calling anything but outright muggings. This usually results in low-scoring matches, as more holding and hooking infractions are overlooked.
Still other refs seem to favor the home team, while others go out of their way to make sure the visitors get a fair shake.
Some interesting referee trends that might help handicap the weekend action appear below.
When the goaltenders and referees are announced about 30 minutes prior to game time, handicappers would be wise to search for the name David Banfield.
Banfield has officiated just eight games this season, but the home team has won on seven occasions. Additionally, those games really haven’t been close. The home teams have won by an average of more than two goals per game (4.50 to 2.38).
Those wagering on the ‘total’ will also be interested to learn that the ‘over’ cashed in six of Banfield’s eight assignments, with the teams combining for an average of 6.88 goals.
Other refs who home teams enjoy seeing include Tom Kowal (12-11), Greg Kimmerly (11-10), Rob Martel (10-9) and Wes McCauley (12-10).
The ‘over’ has also cashed when the following refs are blowing the whistle; Kevin Pollack (15-7, 6.4 GPG), Steve Kozari (14-7, 6.2 GPG), Mike Leggo (13-7, 6.5 GPG), Rob Martel (11-8, 6.0 GPG).
Those thinking about wagering on the visiting team might add a few more units to their bet when they see Dennis LaRue listed as one of the zebras. Road teams are a sizzling 17-3 in LaRue’s 20 assignments, with the ‘under’ going 13-6-1.
Dean Morton is also visitor-friendly, with the road squad going 15-4 in his 19 starts as the lead official. Other refs who visiting teams enjoy seeing on the ice include Francios St. Laurent (16-6), Dave Jackson (16-6), Don Vanmassenhoven (14-5) and Kyle Rehman (9-1).
The ‘under’ is a popular wager when Greg Kimmerly has the zebra shirt, evidenced by the ‘under’ going 16-5 with just 4.57 combined goals scored. Other ‘under’ refs include Dennis LaRue (13-6, 5.20 GPG), Kelly Sutherland (13-7, 5.00 GPG) and Eric Furlatt (13-7, 5.38 GPG).
Through games of Thursday, Nov. 26, home favorites were cashing at a 58 percent rate, while road favorites were 38-21-2-6 for a 56 percent success rate. The ‘under’ had appeared 186 times (54 percent), compared to 157 for the ‘over.’