I'm playing the Under in the Florida Marlins/San Diego Padres game on Monday at Petco Park.

Ricky Nolasco of Florida has caught fire of late. He always had electric stuff. After struggling to harness it early on, things clicked into place five starts ago. In those last five appearances, Nolasco has an ERA of 1.96, with a sparkling 0.82 WHIP and a stunning 35-4 strikeout/walk ratio. Nobody's hitting him, and tonight he gets to face a horrible offense in a pitcher's paradise.

San Diego is throwing Greg Maddux. The future Hall-of-Famer has mastered the art of pitching in this park. His ERA is 2.45 at home this season, with a very strong 1.0 WHIP. This is very likely to be an extreme pitchers' duel that comes down to a late inning coin flip to determine the winner. Either pitcher could throw a shutout. Great pitching matchups have been ending 2-1 and 3-2 all season in this stadium. And, the oddsmakers still haven't adjusted enough.

Free Pick: Marlins-Padres Under 8 (-115)