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MLB - Minnesota Twins -125 stay hot vs. Texas Rangers
Minnesota Twins -125 stay hot vs. Texas Rangers
Game Time: Friday, July 18, 2008 08:10 PM ET
With the starting pitching matchup basically a wash and the Twins playing at home, Minnesota makes for the best play Friday night when they host the Texas Rangers.
On Friday's MLB card, one line jumped out at me as being modestly but solidly off a bit, and that is Minnesota at home priced as a favorite in the low -120s over visiting Texas.
The Twins, perhaps the AL version of the Mets, ended the first half on an impressive and extended tear, rising from a sub-.500 record to having the fifth-best record in the AL and winding up only a game and a half out of first place in the AL Central. While the Twins were no doubt overachieving a bit, they do still nonetheless have a good core of a team, with a quality bullpen to preserve close wins at home, and I expect that they will continue on as one of the better AL team for the rest of the year and challenge for a playoff spot.
The Rangers are a solid team in their own right with some nice positives to them, but they are still just a .500 team away from Rangers Ballpark, and they are at a notable disadvantage when they go on the road to face winning teams with capable bullpens such as the Twins.
The starting pitching matchup here is basically a wash. Both starters involved can be decent but are usually pretty hittable, but the Twins will probably gain a small edge from the lefty/righty situations here; the Twins fare a bit better when facing righties, as Texas starter Kevin Millwood is, while the Rangers struggle a bit against southpaws, one of whom they will be up against on Friday in Minnesota’s Glen Perkins.
Adding it all up, I see value on the side of Minnesota, a team that has played well (32-18) and profitably (+14.4 units) at home all year long, and is currently playing some good ball to boot. If this game is close in the later innings, Texas will face a tough challenge pulling out a close win when Minnesota’s bullpen gets involved. This is a short price to pay here for Minnesota in my opinion, so I’ll be going with the Twins -125 at home on Friday night.