This is an unusual comp play for me in that there is no clearly discernible strength vs weakness matchup. See, if you handicap for an living, you really want games where black matches up vs white – you don't want a lot of shades of grey – and a lot of "maybes."

Do I dislike Ben Sheets? Hardly. The Brewers are actually 7-3 his last 10 away from home - an extraordinary performance given the vast majority of pitchers are net losers away from home. And the guy's got a 2.88 ERA - which is like one-and-change 20 years ago.

So, why would I like the Cards as a dog here? Several reasons:

1. Todd Wellemeyer's home numbers are actually equal-to or better than Sheet's road-numbers – particularly that ultimate arbiter stat: most net profit won.
2. This is no ordinary game or ordinary series. I've done this a long time and can never remember an entire league where just 3 teams are playing better than .535-ball. And those 3 teams are locked in a virtual-tie in the Central Division: the Cubbies, the Brewers and the Cards. To make a broad generalization – but one that's often true – important series like this are often shaded toward the home-team for so many reasons, not the least of which is very large partisan crowds.
3. Managers often decide such series. I'm not a big fan of Ned Yost. Any guy who still brings in Eric Gagne - who makes my heart stop when I see him walk to the mound and I've bet the Brewers for large chunk of change - is not a good manager. But let's hope this no-more-than-a-spectral-image of his former Cy Young-self comes into this game - because his career ERA vs St Louis is a lovely 8.00 or so.

In the other dugout we have, in my estimation, the best manager in all of baseball, who knows when and how to make the right moves, and utilizes whatever talent he has available as optimally as I've seen.

You might guess I'm a big Tony La Russa fan.

Look for the Cards to come away with a win in the series finale as a +125 dog in this 8:15 p.m. matchup.

Free Pick: Cardinals +125