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Sacramento Monarchs +9 look for revenge at Seattle Storm on ESPN2
Game Time: Thursday, July 9, 2009 12:00 AM ET
Sacramento has already dropped two games to Seattle this year, and the Monarchs will be out to prove they can at least hang with the Storm in this ESPN2 matchup.
The Sacramento Monarchs opened the WNBA season back in June by being swept in two matchups against the Seattle Storm, losing both at home and on the road. Thursday night on ESPN2 the two teams will meet for the third time this season and I am taking the Monarchs as 9-point underdogs in this matchup when they visit Seattle in hopes of avenging those two defeats.
The Seattle Storm have not lost a home game all season and all four have been against Western Conference opponents. That makes it seem like we should just all look for another blowout by the Storm against a conference foe they have already beat twice this season, right? But sometimes you do not know which Seattle team is going to show up and I know the Monarchs are bound to be a lot more excited about this game then the Storm in it being a double revenge spot.
Prior to their most recent home win on Tuesday night against the San Antonio Silver Stars, the Storm lost two road games in Phoenix and Los Angeles with their defense giving up 93 and 82 points, respectively. Although this can be a team with some home-road disparity, those two road losses show signs of inconsistency – the type of inconsistency that will catch up to them at home in a big matchup sooner or later. Despite impressively outrebounding San Antonio 41 to 17 on Tuesday, did you know that the Storm average among the fewest amount of offensive rebounds per game in the WNBA at less than 9? In fact, only 14 of the 41 rebounds pulled down on Tuesday were offensive so do not let any big rebounding numbers fool you. Although the Storm could take tonight’s game a little too lightly anyway as they have been riding high at home, specifically not having second chance points will sooner or later make it hard for them to cover the spread when facing against the Monarchs. Sacramento even outrebounded Seattle in both of their matchups last month and although the Monarchs lost both games, I feel not getting their share of the rebounds will eat away at Seattle’s margin of victory at the Key Arena tonight.
Despite the Monarchs getting off to a rough start this season, they have pulled off two nice victories in a row and have built some nice momentum going into tonight’s game after losing six straight games prior to that. Sacramento’s defense has also come a long way since being lit up in Phoenix for 115 points by the Mercury last month as since then only twice in seven games have opponents scored more than 75 points against them. With the defense approaching mid-season form and consistently being one of the top rebounding teams in the league all year, I feel this will be a more fine-tuned Monarchs team compared to the one that the Storm faced at the beginning of the season.
Sacramento’s center, Rebekkah Brunson, just nailed her first double-double of the season on Tuesday night against the Chicago Sky and is sure to be on the floor more than the 15 and 18 minutes, respectively, that she was when up against Seattle in the first two games of the season. Forward DeMya Walker also did not start in either of those games and increased minutes from her can only help in tonight’s rematch. Walker looked sharp in the Monarchs victory over Chicago shooting 4 for 4 from the field on Tuesday and will part of the revamped starting five that Sacramento will have tonight compared to the start of the season.
Sacramento’s other starting forward, Nicole Powell, has been having a big season and leading the team in points, rebounds, and steals per game. Most amazingly, Powell has gone 30 for 30 at the free throw line this season not missing a single one! I feel this could be huge tonight in shots from the line as the Storm committed more personal fouls than the Monarchs in both earlier matchups this season. In fact, the Storm’s star forward Lauren Jackson had her hands full in those games and committed 5 fouls in one of them so look for Jackson to be in foul trouble at some point if the Monarchs go after her. Jackson even had her two lowest rebounding efforts of the season back then and had more turnovers than steals against the Monarchs in those games.
In general, conference matchups like this are all about making adjustments from prior meetings and I feel the Monarchs revamped starting lineup for this game will make a big difference. Last year, when these teams met for the third time that season it was in Seattle and the Monarchs lost a close 6 point game to the Storm. Brunson even got hurt early on but the team did not quit and outscored Seattle 22 to 10 in the 4th quarter. I feel that same heart showed itself last week in Minnesota when the Monarchs held one of the league’s top offenses in the Lynx to only 68 points and outscored them 23 to 16 in the 4th quarter then. So even if Sacramento falls behind against Seattle tonight, do not count them out from at least staying in it to cover the spread here down the stretch.
Pinnacle Sports opened the line for this game at 8.5 points and it was bet up to 9 quickly. As always, I do not fear the early action and you should not either. This line is actually higher than when the Storm was favored by 7 points against the Monarchs back in June and anyone backing the Storm is paying too much of a premium here. Especially with the Monarchs coming in winning two in a row, I thought the line would be more sharp here and that I might have to pass if it was too low. But instead we get a 9 point line and some great value thanks to too much emphasis by the bookies and public on the two losses Sacramento suffered at the start of the season to Seattle – which I feel you can draw a line through at this point for all of the reasons I have covered. Enjoy tonight’s game on ESPN2 and take the Sacramento Monarchs plus the points!
I will be back here on SBR this weekend with thoughts on Saturday’s Hollywood Gold Cup and then on Sunday with some picks for the WNBA doubleheader on NBA TV that day. Good luck until then!
Free Pick: Monarchs +9 (-110)