West Virginia Mountaineers -2 muzzle the UConn Huskies
Game Time: 01/06/2009 07:00 PM ET
After suffering through an 0-5 ATS run earlier this season, the Mountaineers have covered their last three. Take West Virginia at home over the Connecticut Huskies.
Morgantown will be the setting for tonight’s Big East clash between the host West Virginia Mountaineers and the visiting Connecticut Huskies. This will be their first meeting since last March in the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament when the Mountaineers came away with a 78-72 win.
West Virginia is 11-2 SU and 5-5 ATS this season including 6-0 SU and 2-1 ATS at home. They are averaging 79.7 points per game against teams that normally surrender 66.6 points per game. Their defense has been solid both on the road and at home, they are only allowing 47.7 points per game on 35.7% shooting to teams that average scoring 70.4 points per game. The Mountaineers suffered a loss back on December 9 to Davidson, 68-65, as a 2½-point favorites and since that time they have been outstanding winning five in a row and posting a 3-1 ATS record. The last two wins came on the road at Ohio State, and they blew them out 76-48, before traveling to Seton Hall and put a beat-down on the Pirates, 92-66.
Over those five games the Mountaineers averaged 81.4 points per game and only allowed 55.4 points per game on 38% shooting. The Mounties have defended the trey also allowing a mere 21.3% from behind the arc.
Connecticut is 12-1 SU and 5-4 ATS overall including 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS on the highway this season. The Huskies average 79.4 points per game on 48.4% from the field and they allow 69.6 points per game on 42.6% shooting to teams that normally score only 68.3 points per game. A small negative point differential for the Huskies “D” on the road this season. The Huskies suffered their first loss back on December 29 to the Georgetown Hoyas as a 6½-point home favorites, losing 74-63. They were able to bounce back in their next game as they hosted Rutgers and blew them out as a 21-point home favorite, 80-49.
The Huskies' big win over Rutgers triggers a negative situation; we know that when they are on the road after defeating a conference opponent in their last game by 10 or more points, they struggle against the spread posting a record of 21-37 ATS. If that big win came at home the Huskies are 3-14 ATS on the road in their next game. We also note that after Connecticut has a solid defensive outing allowing 60 points or less in their last game they are only 2-13 ATS on the road in their next game. Finally the Huskies are 1-10 ATS when playing on the road after two consecutive home games.
On the injury front we see that Huskies center Hasheem Thabeet is listed as probable for tonight’s game. That could be a huge loss for the Huskies if he cannot go. Thabeet is tied with guard Jerome Dyson and forward Jeff Adrien with 14 points per game to lead the team. He also leads the team with 10.5 rebounds per game and is a huge presence in the paint on the defensive end of the floor. For WVU only guard Joe Mazzulla is out of the lineup for this game.
Database research has uncovered several key situations that favor West Virginia in this contest. WVU is 40-21 ATS if they won their last game SU and are now playing at home. If they are installed as a favorite their record is 31-16 ATS and if it is a conference opponent that record improves to 7-1 ATS. We want to play on WVU when they are coming off a SU/ATS win in their last game and now face a conference foe and are installed as a favorite, 13-4 ATS and if the line range is pk to 3, they are a perfect 5-0 ATS. WVU is 18-5 ATS when playing only their second game in eight days over the last three seasons.
With significant fundamental, technical and situational support for the host we will make the Mountaineers our play for Tuesday.
Projected Final Score: Mountaineers-80 Huskies-71
Free Pick: West Virginia -2 (-110)