As the first Final Four with all top seeds approaches, I am getting excited from a fan’s perspective to watch the games but I’m not terribly excited from a gambler’s perspective about any of the lines offered.

I think the market has things set about right, as these two games have been studied and analyzed and written about ad nauseam. I will, however, be on the lookout for value with the halftime lines depending on how things transpire on the court.

In major event games such as these, where absolute elite teams are matched up against each other, halftime lines often have much better value than the full game lines for various reasons, some quite obvious, and some less so. The most obvious reason is the huge amount of general attention given to the full game lines by the market. These lines have been hanging longer than any other NCAA basketball games all year, and you can be sure that very few stones have been left unturned by the market movers, given the huge amount of action they can get down on any value they spot.

Further, the major factors that usually confer line value when they are significantly unequal or unclear – talent, momentum, and motivation – are all well known and maximized by this point in the season. By definition, no team comes into the Final Four with anything less than maximum motivation and on an impressive winning streak.

However, the halftime lines in these kinds of games are a completely different matter. Of course, as with all halftime lines, they are set quickly and in a strictly formulaic manner, without regard to any kind of intangibles or unique circumstances. And as these games are more likely than generic games to create those kinds of situations, their halftime lines can often be more exploitable than normal.

In the opening game, UCLA and Memphis, it should be apparent in the first half whether UCLA’s tough brand of defense is stifling Memphis or not. If it is, and UCLA goes into the break with a decent lead because of it, it is likely to continue into the second half. Tough defense predicated on a strategic system and gritty effort is not something that suffers much variance. If this is the case, the Bruins will be getting a good amount of points on the second half spread, and I will take them to cover in the second half.

If, however, Memphis is able to play their preferred style effectively against UCLA, but goes into the first half behind due to poor free throw shooting, their infamous Achilles’ heel, I will be looking very closely at taking the Tigers in the second half to turn it around and come away with a win and a second half cover.

The North Carolina/Kansas game presents even more uncertainty than the first game. No one seems to be quite sure exactly how good UNC is, with some knowledgeable people emphatically predicting a blowout and others equally forcefully predicting a Kansas upset. To my eyes, at this point, it seems a bit unclear. By the numbers, this game should be highly competitive. But the Tar Heels may well have explosive potential they have never fully accessed up to this point. After the first half however, the picture should be a lot clearer.

If the Tar Heels are running all over the Jayhawks and winning in a rout, they are not likely to let up in the second half. If there does in fact prove to be a talent discrepancy between these two teams, and UNC is up by double digits in the first half, they will be a second half underdog, and I think a good bet to cover.

But if Kansas has cooked up a scheme to contain UNC’s stars, playing competitively in the first half and go into the half down by six or seven (or less), I will be strongly looking at taking Kansas in the second half, expecting them to take the game down to the wire and cover a near pick ‘em second half spread.

These are just a few examples of possible scenarios that could present themselves at the half times of the Final Four games on Saturday night, and thinking about things in this way can uncover good betting opportunities in big time games that may not exist with the full game lines.