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NCAAF - Cincinnati Bearcats take on emotionally drained UConn Huskies
Cincinnati Bearcats take on emotionally drained UConn Huskies
Game Time: Friday, November 6, 2009 12:00 AM ET
The Cincinnati Bearcats might have the best all-around team in the nation and should have no trouble tovering the Connecticut Huskies who are worn out after two emotional games.
We expect to see one of the more frenzied atmospheres of the entire college season at Nippert Stadium on Saturday night, with a Cincinnati team in a legitimate quest for the BCS Championship game getting a most rare Prime Time outing on ABC to use as a showcase. And against a fragile opponent, we can call for a knockout to be delivered.
No offense in the nation has executed better than the Bearcats this season. They are eighth in total offense, fifth in scoring, and first in pass efficiency, and if anything have been even better without Tony Pike at QB.
Although Pike was putting up Heisman contender numbers before being injured, since then Zach Collaros has been simply off the charts – how about 74.6 percent completions in his 63 attempts, nine TD’s vs. only one INT, and 213 rushing yards, including two more scores? His 218.4 passer rating would lead the nation by a wide margin (Kellen Moore of Boise would be a distant second at 171.0), but he is 31 attempts short of qualifying.
And it is easy to keep piling up those numbers because there are weapons galore – led by Mardy Gilyard there are seven different receivers that have caught at least 10 passes; nine that have at least one TD reception; and the one-two RB combo of Isaiah Pead and Jacob Ramsey are averaging a crisp 6.2 per rush over 127 attempts. And bringing both top-notch talent and great designs make it that wonderful combination of High Yield/Low Risk, with only five turnovers in 511 snaps.
It is not just all offense, however. Brian Kelly’s defenders are ninth in the nation in scoring, rating first in tackles for loss and second in sacks. The special teams rate seventh in punt returns and 10th in kickoff returns. It is a special package all the way around, and we believe that in this setting we get the maximum out of that package.
That is bad news for an emotionally weary Connecticut team that has gone through one of the most draining cycles we have ever charted in recent weeks. The tragic loss of Jasper Howard was not just a devastating blow when it happened, but it compounds matters with several awkward practice weeks in a row, and then crushing late-game losses to West Virginia and Rutgers.
To make matters worse the Huskies then lost QB Cody Endres last week, and even though that takes them back to original starter Zach Frazer, there has been a major performance gap between the two. Endres had a far superior passer rating at 145.2 to 96.0, with Frazer completing only 48.3 percent of his attempts, with more than twice as many INT’s (7) as TD passes (3).
The Huskies had a chance to post dramatic wins vs. West Virginia and Rutgers that would have been a tribute to Howard, but they got away. That leaves them worn down without that adrenaline of recent weeks, creating an early “snap factor” against the punches that will be thrown at them, and with an inability to throw from behind to challenge the back door this one gets ugly.
Free Pick: Cincinnati -16½ (-110)