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NCAAF - Navy drops anchor in South Bend and hangs with Fighting Irish
Navy drops anchor in South Bend and hangs with Fighting Irish
Game Time: Saturday, November 7, 2009 12:00 AM ET
The Midshipmen know how to play as road underdogs. Take the points and Navy this afternoon when they meet the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend.
I'm a big fan of Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen, as I've had him atop my last two Heisman Watch polls although everyone knows that Tim Tebow has already been awarded the 2009 Heisman.
Notre Dame had beaten Navy 43 consecutive times before the 2007 Midshipmen were able to win 46-44 at South Bend in three OTs (Clausen's freshman year, though he did not play in the game). Notre Dame bounced back last year with a 27-21 win over Navy in Baltimore and that final score is deceiving.
The Irish led 27-7 very late in the fourth quarter with Navy tacking on two TDs in the final two minutes and getting stopped on downs at the Notre Dame 31 after recovering a second straight onside kick. Clausen completed 15-of-18 passes in that game, but he was hardly a factor with just 110 yards passing as two of his three incompletions were intercepted.
This Saturday's game should be very interesting. The Irish are 22nd in the latest BCS standings and with nine wins (they are 6-2 with four games left) and a BCS ranking of at least 14, they become eligible for an at-large BCS bid (watch out Boise and TCU!).
Let's note that Notre Dame opened with a 35-0 home win over Nevada but have gone 0-6 ATS when favored since that game, as the team takes a 2-6 ATS record into this game (only other ATS win in '09 was covering in the team's home loss to USC).
Clausen is having a superb season (66.9% / 289.8 YPG through the air / 18-2 ratio) plus receiver Michael Floyd has recovered from his broken collarbone and should play this week. Floyd had 13 catches for 358 yards (27.5 YPC) and five TDs before getting hurt early in the third game of the season, against Michigan State. His return gives the Irish arguably the best one-two punch at wideout in the country, with Golden Tate owning 56 catches (16.6 YPC) and nine TDs.
However, Navy knows how to play as an underdog. Just ask Ohio State, which was lucky to escape with a 31-27 win in Columbus back on September vs the Midshipmen. Paul Johnson took over at Annapolis in 2002 and after a 2-10 first season, led Navy to five straight bowl appearances. Ken Niumatalolo continued that tradition last year and since the 2003 season (that's six-plus years), Navy is a remarkable 17-4 as road underdogs (81 percent ATS!).
Quarterback Ricky Dobbs is healthy enough to start and that's huge as he's the second-leading rusher for a team which averages 279.8 YPG on the ground (4.6 YPC) while scoring 30 TDs (Dobbs has 16 of those TDs). Navy's covered its last nine visits to South Bend and makes it an even 10 this Saturday. Take the points.
Free Pick: Navy +12½ (-110)