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NCAAF - Stanford Cardinal catch Oregon Ducks stil hungover from USC win
Stanford Cardinal catch Oregon Ducks stil hungover from USC win
Game Time: Saturday, November 7, 2009 12:00 AM ET
Stanford can put points on the board, and that makes the Cardinal a very dangerous home underdog this afternoon when they host the Oregon Ducks.
Stanford is in a prime spot to pull the upset here. They are off a bye and face an Oregon team coming off their biggest win in years beating USC last Saturday.
That win by the Ducks gives them a very nice cushion in the race for the Rose Bowl as they are 5-0. Every other team, except Arizona, has at least two losses.
Many were calling last week's game a battle for the conference title and you know the players were looking at it as such. The Quacks played their best game of the season and ran all over USC.
Now we can look for the players to be told all week how great they are and start to believe it. No chance that Oregon can be fully focused on their game at Stanford this Saturday. That's a dangerous recipe when going on the road, vs. a solid opponent off a bye week.
The Cardinal are 4-0 at home and beating teams by an average score of 33-15. Included in those are two impressive wins vs. solid Pac 10 teams Washington and Arizona State. Stanford whipped Washington 34-14 and ASU 33-14.
This is a very solid team with a good rushing attack. Running back Toby Gerhart is a battering ram that has already put up 980 yards rushing and 13 TDs. He is averaging 5 YPC. Their QB Andrew Luck has been very efficient when needed throwing for over 1800 yards, nine TDs and just three interceptions.
This team can score points which makes them tough as an underdog. They have scored less than 24 points only once all season and they are averaging 32 PPG. Their defense has held opponents to 17 points or less in half their games this year. While we don't expect them to do that vs. Oregon, we do think they will do enough to allow their offense to keep this close throughout.
We spoke of Oregon's letdown potential here, however we have to add another twist to that scenario. Since getting beat at Boise St. to open the season, this team has played only two road games (this will however be their third road game in four outings). Those two games came at UCLA and at Washington.
They beat a struggling UCLA team only 24-10. However, 14 of those 24 points came on a 100-yard kickoff return and a 32-yard interception return. They outgained a pathetic Bruin offense by just 92 yards.
They also beat a tired Washington team that had been all over the country leading up to that with games at Stanford, at Notre Dame, home vs. Arizona and at Arizona State leading up to that one. Oregon won handily yet only outgained the Huskies by 21 yards. Turnovers played a key role in that one.
Oregon squeaked by Stanford at home last year. The Ducks were trailing late and punched in a TD with only six seconds remaining (plus the two-point coversion) to get the 35-28 win. The Cardinal will have that on their "rested" minds this Saturday. Stanford was a perfect 3-0 ATS as a home dog last year winning two of those game SU. Saturday they get a distracted Oregon team this week and we'll call for the upset.
Free Pick: Stanford +7½ (-110)