Squares everywhere are jumping on No. 5 Wisconsin as small road pups this Saturday. But those in the know understand Illinois is rightfully favored in this one at home.

Wisconsin is fifth in the country and the Badgers are getting points? That makes no sense, let’s hammer them. That is the comment from most squares in the country when they see this line and for a square, it is easy money.

Wisconsin is a dog for a reason and could possibly be the worst 5th-ranked team in the history of college football, sans Michigan in week one this season. The Badgers have barely gotten by the last two weeks with narrow wins against Iowa and Michigan St., both at home by the way.

Illinois is a team on the rise and its athleticism is proving be to too much for some teams. After defeating Penn St., the Illini are 2-0 in the Big Ten for the first time since 1991 which was coach John Mackovic's final team showing how long ago that really was. It was the first ranked opponent they have defeated since 1991 and they are now at 4-1, making dreams of a bowl bid sound like more than just wishful thinking. People are talking about letdown but this team wants more as one big win won’t get it done.

For the first time Illinois head coach Ron Zook is making sure his team stays grounded, reining in the excitement over the recent four-game winning streak. But he won't dampen a growing sense of confidence. The Illini are one bad play away from being undefeated right now as it cost them in their opener against Missouri and this team absolutely thinks it can contend in the Big Ten. A win over yet another ranked team will no doubt move them into the top 20 as they are currently ranked 28th in the AP poll.

Illinois had 216 yards rushing against Penn St., the fourth straight 200-yard rushing performance for an Illini team that is now ranked sixth in the country in rushing offense. That came against a Nittany Lions defense that was ranked sixth in the country in rushing yards allowed. Wisconsin comes into this game ranked 42nd in rushing defense and that defense was lit up last Saturday for 241 yards rushing by Michigan St. The Spartans came in ranked 31st in rushing defense.

As good as Illinois is running the ball, it is nearly as good at stopping the run. The Illini are 22nd in the country in rushing defense, allowing only 95.4 ypg on their 2.8 ypc average allowed is 16th in the nation. Wisconsin is a very good rushing team but when facing a defense like Illinois, it was shut down pretty good as Iowa held the Badgers to 138 yards rushing two games back. The Hawkeyes are 14th in rushing defense so comparing them with Illini is spot on.

Illinois is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning record and that jumps to 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage greater than 75 percent. Winning has been contagious as the good play tends to carry forward as the Illini are now 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a win in their previous game. Wisconsin is just 1-4 ATS in the same situation. This will be an upset in some minds but the fraudulent 5th rank team will show why they have no business being there.

Free Pick: Illinois (-2½) 1½ Units

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