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NFL - Tampa Bay Buccaneers +11 to slash depleted New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +11 to slash depleted New Orleans Saints
Game Time: Sunday, November 22, 2009 01:00 PM ET
The Saints may be 9-0, but they are depleted in the secondary for this game and Bucs QB Josh Freeman seems capable if taking fullest advantage. Take the double-digit home dog.
The New Orleans Saints offense should move the ball well and score a good number of points vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers here, just as they always do, but the Saints are hurting in the secondary with three starters that may not play.
Jabari Greer is having a great season at one cornerback spot (two interceptions and 13 passes defended in eight games), but he's scheduled to miss his second consecutive game. Tracy Porter, with three picks and eight passes defended is probably out for at least two or three weeks and star safety Darren Sharper, with seven interceptions and 12 passes defended is questionable this week after missing last week's game.
Last week without Greer and Sharper the Saints allowed 7.0 yards per pass play to a horrible Rams' pass attack that would average only 5.0 yppp at home against an average pass defense, so there is no reason that rookie Josh Freeman won't have better than average success throwing the ball this week with at least two starters out in the Saints' secondary again.
Tampa Bay also runs the ball pretty well and my math model calls for 331 yards at 5.5 yards per play and 24 points for the Bucs against that depleted Saints' defense. I like Tampa Bay plus the points in this one, as the injuries in the secondary are not accurately reflected in the line.
New Orleans 30, Tampa Bay 24
Free Pick: Buccaneers +11 (-110)
© Copyright 2009. Reprinted with permission of the author.