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Steelers, Jaguars clash in key AFC match

Game Time: 12/16/2007 08:15 PM Steelers, Jaguars clash in key AFC match - NFL Matchups

By: | sbrforum.com

Heinz Field in Pittsburgh hosts Sunday's crucial AFC match between the Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars, and the weatherman says to look for a possible winter wonderland, as long as your wonderland includes a wintery mix of precipitation with wind thrown in for good measure.  Can the Jags continue their recent fine stretch or will the Steelers get back on track after their loss to the Pats?

There is truly never a dull moment in the NFL. Bobby Petrino has left Atlanta for Arkansas. Punter Todd Sauerbrun has been charged with assaulting a cabbie. And the Jets are being accused of spying on the Patriots before the Patriots spied on the Jets. Also, “Free Michael Vick.”

Steelers, Jaguars clash in key AFC match

What’s next, Janet Jackson at Super Bowl XLII?

Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (+1, 47½)
Thursday, Dec 13, 8:15 pm (ET) NFL Network
There’s no doubt the Broncos are getting better as QB Jay Cutler matures. This is a team that dropped the cash in its first five games before leveling off at 4-4 against the spread heading into Thursday night’s matchup.

As far as statheads are concerned, Cutler is now one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. He’s ninth in the league with 67.6 DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement) in passing situations, just ahead of Matt Hasselbeck and Ben Roethlisberger.

That Broncos offense has to be good, because their defense gives up a lot of points: 25.8 per game. As a consequence, the over is 11-2 for Denver. The Texans aren’t the type of team you would expect to take advantage of Denver’s weaknesses. Houston is 23rd in the league in efficiency; Denver is 14th.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3½, 36½)
Sunday, Dec 16, 1:00 pm (ET) CBS
This is about as evenly matched as it gets. Both teams are at 9-4, although the Jags are also 9-4 ATS while Pittsburgh is 7-6. Both teams have run-based offenses led by short-throwing QBs: Roethlisberger (7.82 yards per catch) for the Steelers, and David Garrard (7.71 yards) for the Jaguars. And both teams feature running backs that never seem to reach the end zone: Willie Parker (two TDs) and Fred Taylor (three TDs).

The main difference right now is that the Jaguars are hot. Two weeks ago, they nearly got their revenge against the Colts in Indianapolis as part of their current 5-0 ATS run (4-1 straight up).

The Steelers are 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five. And DE Aaron Smith is out for the season, although FS Troy Polamalu may return.

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-5½, 43)
Sunday, Dec 16, 1:00 pm (ET) CBS
It’s difficult to bet against either of these teams right now. The Browns have cashed in seven of their last eight games, while Buffalo is on a 7-2-1 ATS run. Both teams did much of their damage against poor opposition.

Cleveland, though, has performed at a higher level. Cleveland sits at No. 11 in the efficiency rankings with the No. 7 offense; Buffalo is in 17th and is in the rare position of having a special-teams disadvantage against the Browns and their premier kick returner, Josh Cribbs (30.98 yards per return)

Unlike Jacksonville-Pittsburgh, this matchup presents a clash of styles. Cleveland has by far the worse defense of the two, but the Browns are better at defending the run than the pass. And the air attack is conveniently one of Buffalo’s weaker attributes.

Cleveland’s Derek Anderson (26 TDs, 14 INTs), on the other hand, won’t have to worry about Bills FS George Wilson. The converted receiver is injured and will be replaced by Jim Leonhard, who does his best work on special teams. It’s not a good situation for Buffalo.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-4½, 36½)
Sunday, Dec 16, 8:15 pm (ET) NBC
A Sunday night in December at Giants Stadium. Perfect football weather: just below freezing at kick off with light rain possibly turning to snow. The forecast calls for ugly. The total for this contest has dropped like a stone from 40½ points at the open to 36½.

Todd Collins will once again start for Washington while Jason Campbell recuperates from a dislocated kneecap. This may be good news for ‘Skins supporters. Collins was crisp in his NFL return last week, throwing two TDs in a 24-16 win over the Bears. Collins also went pick-free, something that neither Campbell (12 TDs, 11 INTs) nor Giants QB Eli Manning (18 TDs, 17 INTs) can boast too often. He gives Washington a knockout punch opportunity against a suspect New York secondary.

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