Atlanta coach Bobby Petrino resigned this week to take the job at Arkansas and it’s tough to imagine things getting any worse for the Falcons. Most players on the Falcons could care less about losing Petrino, whose heavy doses of discipline didn’t play very well in the NFL. I’ll assume losing their coach will have no negative affect on the Falcons this week and it could actually lighten the mood of the team a bit.

Tampa Bay gets Jeff Garcia back at quarterback this week after missing most of the last three weeks, and it looks like Chris Redman will get another start at quarterback for the Falcons. Redman has put up better looking stats than Joey Harrington did (6.6 yards per pass play is good), but doing so against the Rams and mostly against the Saints’ horrible pass defense diminishes those good numbers significantly since an average quarterback would average 7.6 yppp throwing 43 passes at the Saints and 25 passes at the Rams’ defense. Redman’s compensated numbers are a bit better than Harrington’s, but his career 5.1 yppp average is no better than the team’s compensated average, so I won’t make any adjustments for Redman at this point.

My math model favors the Bucs by 14½ points with Garcia at quarterback for Tampa and Redman at quarterback for the Falcons. Tampa Bay is coming off a loss last week and Jon Gruden’s teams are 25-11-2 ATS as a favorite or pick after a loss, but the Buccaneers apply to a negative 30-94-1 ATS situation that is stronger than the team trend. I’ll lean with Atlanta plus the points. Tampa Bay-24, Atlanta-14

Free Pick: Falcons +13½ (-110)

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