CFL Week 5 Betting Preview
Game Time: Sunday, July 27, 2008 07:00 PM ET
It's been nearly eight years since Montreal won a contest out west in British Columbia, and while the Alouettes may cover this spread, they won't top the Lions straight up on Sunday.
Calgary (-6) at Winnipeg (54½)
Thursday, July 24, 8:00 p.m. (ET)
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are going to shuffle the deck this week vs. the Calgary Stampeders and start ex-Boise State QB Ryan Dinwiddie. Kevin Glenn seems to be in a funk to start the 2008 campaign and one has to wonder if it’s the arm injury he suffered in the Eastern Final last year vs. Toronto setting him back, or the fact his favorite receiver Milt Stegall has been out of the line up the first four weeks of the season.
The Stampeders are coming off a 43-16 blowout win over Hamilton and are currently riding a two-game winning streak SU and ATS. The Stamps have seen their last two games go over the posted total and they’ve been averaging 32.3 points (23 points against) in their last three games.
Winnipeg is looking for their first win of the season and when a CFL team starts the year 0-4 on the season, they are 3-3 SU and 4-2-0 ATS in their fifth game of the year. The Under is 4-2-0 in this situation as well. As for the Blue Bombers, they need to establish a running game and if Charles Roberts can’t get going, then it’s time for Doug Berry to bring in a new running back to kick start this offense.
The Calgary Stampeders aren’t used to being a road favorite the last few years and it will be interesting to see how they respond in this situation, they are 0-5 SU and ATS as a road favorite the last two seasons and average 18.33 points (22.67 points against) in this role.
The Bombers gave the Lions a feisty test last weekend at BC Place and if they can play hard like they did last Friday, they should have a better outcome. However, starting an inexperience QB in this role might be too much of an experiment for the veterans on offense who might get impatient and look for Calgary to win a nail bitter.
Stampeders at Blue Bombers History: When Calgary travels to Winnipeg, they are 6-6-1 ATS, 7-6 SU and the O/U is 7-6-0 since 1996.
ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When Winnipeg plays as a home team, coming off scoring 18-20 points in their last game, the he Blue Bombers are 9-1 SU and 8-2-0 ATS in this spot since ’96.
Ron’s Forecast: Calgary 21 Winnipeg 21
Edmonton (-2½) at Hamilton (52)
Friday, July 25, 7:00 p.m.
If the Hamilton Tiger Cats are going to be successful this season, they will need Jesse Lumsden to stay healthy and in the lineup every week or else this season will be just another right off. The time has come where the Hamilton Tiger Cats need to fish or cut bait with Lumsden, because dressing him 40% of the time will not do the Tabbies any good in their rebuilding process.
Hamilton fans are starting to have a 'Love/Hate' relationship with their football team and how do you expect Charlie Taaffe to be successful if he can’t get any consistency with his starting players. However, the good news for Taaffe this weekend is Lumsden will be in the line up and what’s even better from a betting perspective, the Ticats are in their normal home underdog role. In fact, I didn’t like Hamilton as a -3½ point home favorite in Week 3 vs. Saskatchewan, but I can stomach them much easier this week as a +2½ point home dog vs. the Eskimos.
Edmonton is coming off a 35-31 loss to Toronto this past Sunday and they have one of the softest defenses in the league, so I expect Casey Printers and Company to have some success marching down the field. The key to this game for the Tiger Cats is to make sure Ricky Ray stays on the sideline, as he’s looking more and more like the gunslinger from previous season. The Eskimos are averaging 37.3 points on offense, but their defense is one of the worst in the league giving up 31.3 points per game.
The Over is 3-0 for both teams in their last three contests and the Eskimos are 0-3 SU and ATS as a road favorite the last two years. Even though it looks like the sky is falling right now for Hamilton fans, with Lumsden in the lineup this weekend, expect the offense to burn the Eskimos' defense on numerous occasions and look for a lot of 20+ yard plays against Danny Maciocia’s defense.
ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When any CFL team plays as a home underdog after a non-division game and coming off a 4-7 point road loss, the home dog (Hamilton) is 12-3-0 ATS in this role since ’96.
Eskimos at Tiger Cats History: When Edmonton travels to Hamilton, they are 4-8-0 ATS, 5-7 SU and the O/U is 7-5-0 since 1996.
Ron’s Forecast: Hamilton 29 Edmonton 23
Montreal (53) at BC Lions (-6½)
Friday, July 25, 10:00 p.m.
The last time the Montreal Alouettes won in BC was Aug 31, 2000. In fact, it was the same year the St. Louis Rams won the Super Bowl vs. Tennessee in what many described as the greatest finish of a championship game, when Rams defensive player (Mike Jones) tackled Titans receiver (Kevin Dyson) at the one-yard line to seal the deal.
The Alouettes are 0-9 SU vs. the BC Lions at BC Place in their last nine encounters, and that includes regular and playoff games. Actually, the last time Montreal won in BC, the Als won 35-25 and the line was a pick 'em with a total of 54½. If the Alouettes should falter the rest of the season, I would say looking back a few weeks ago vs. Winnipeg, where they let a 31-7 lead slip to a 31-24 comeback from the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, teams must have picked up something on that game, and for some reason they haven’t been the same since.
However, it’s only Week 5 and they have a big task at hand this weekend vs. Wally Buono and the Lions. Montreal is coming off a heartbreaking lost to the Saskatchewan Roughriders, a game they seem to be in control until Anthony Calvillo threw that interception deep in their offensive zone and never recovered after this point. In fact, on the next kickoff, Jason Armstead fumbled the football and this sealed the win for the Green Riders.
On a side note, Armstead was released the next day from the Alouettes for his two costly fumbles in the game, but one has to wonder had Calvillo not thrown that interception late in the game, would Armstead still have a job today?
The Lions are coming off a tough and emotional 27-18 win over the Winnipeg Lions, as the Lions celebrated Bob Ackles life after the game. The Lions are enjoying a two-game winning streak and averaging 28.3 points per game, while giving up 22.67 points in their last three contests. It’s just a matter of time before the Lions start averaging over 33 per game, but until they do, their defense will carry them in those close games.
ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When any CFL team plays as a road underdog with a total between 51½ to 54 versus a non-division opponent on Friday and coming off a game scoring 34 points or less, the Under is 17-4-1 for the road dog since ’96.
Alouettes at Lions History: When Montreal travels to BC, they are 5-9-0 ATS, 4-10 SU and the O/U is 8-6-0 since 1996.
Ron’s Forecast: BC Lions 26 Montreal 21
Toronto (54) at Saskatchewan (-4½)
Sunday, July 27, 7:00 p.m.
Kerry Joseph returns to his old stomping grounds this Sunday and the Boatmen are a +4½ point underdogs vs. the 4-0 Saskatchewan Roughriders. However, if Joseph is looking for his old #4 in the Green and White dressing room, seems there’s a new sheriff in town and his name is not Reggie Hammond, but Darian Durant.
Durant has shown great poise and maturity as the new signal caller for the Roughriders and it’s going to force head coach Ken Miller to make a wise and educated decision when Marcus Crandell is ready to come back. The Riders are coming off a exciting 41-33 win over the Montreal Alouettes this past Sunday and they are averaging 33.3 points per game.
The Argos are 2-2 SU on the season and their second win of the year came from a 109 yard drive last week vs. the hapless Eskimos defense. The Argonauts looked old on defense last week, as veterans like Mike O’Shea, Kenny Wheaton and Michael Fletcher were starting to look a bit slow. And when was the last time the Argos were involved in three straight games that went Over the posted total? You would have to go back to Week #9 of the 2003 season to find the answer and that fourth game went Under the total vs. Edmonton in an 18-15 loss. Plus, Toronto will be without their middle linebacker, as Kevin Eiben will be out a few weeks with a MCL tear.
The Argos are allowing 31.5 points a game and having your old defensive coordinator as your new head coach is one major reason why the Argos are allowing so many. Every team has an identity; right now I’m still trying to figure out what makes the Argos tick and what will be their bread and butter the remaining games of the season. If Kerry Joseph can get a reliable go-to receiver he can trust and the Argos defense can get their points allowed average down to 27 or lower per game, they could be the team to beat in the Eastern Division, as nobody really wants to win this division.
ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When Toronto is a 3½-6½ underdog coming off a home win as a favorite, the Argos are 3-7 SU and ATS since ’96.
Argonauts at Roughriders History: When Toronto travels to Saskatchewan, they are 6-6-0 ATS, 6-6 SU and the O/U is 8-4-0 since 1996.
Ron’s forecast: Saskatchewan 33 Toronto 17