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NFL - New England Patriots -3 too strong for San Francisco 49ers
New England Patriots -3 too strong for San Francisco 49ers
Game Time: Sunday, October 5, 2008 04:15 PM ET
Given two weeks to prepare for this one and bounce back from their upset loss to the Fins, look for the New England Patriots to get back into form at the San Francisco 49ers.
The 2008 Patriots are far from the 2007 Patriots and this line certainly backs it up. The loss of Tom Brady has probably put an end to New England trying to get back to the Super Bowl but this is still an above average team from the AFC playing a below average team from the NFC.
This line will no doubt bring a lot of public action to the Patriots and that is why the units are relatively low here. I don’t like backing the public but there are too many factors favoring New England to pass it up.
The 49ers return home after getting beat pretty soundly in New Orleans. They were outgained 467-312 as the defense was exposed badly. Yes, a return back home is good but let’s not forget the lone home victory this season came against the lowly Lions. San Francisco is a team on the rise but rising in the NFC West is nothing to be too excited about. The 49ers have dropped their last six games against the number after allowing 30 points last time out.
The Patriots offense is far from what it was last season but with two weeks to prepare following an embarrassing loss, they could find their stride here. Against the struggling defense of San Francisco, that helps even more. The 49ers are 22nd in the NFL in total defense, allowing 335.8 ypg including 124.5 ypg on the ground which is 21st in the NFL. New England needs to establish the run to take some pressure off Matt Cassel who had a rough game against the Dolphins.
On the other side, the 49ers offense has been up and down but the offensive line remains a huge concern. New Orleans had just four sacks entering last week's game and it added six to its total. New England has just six sacks on the year, but its defensive line is good enough to penetrate this weak line. San Francisco quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan has been sacked a league-high 19 times. The 49ers will be looking to establish the run as well with Frank Gore. The Patriots are better against the run that what they showed last week.
The loss two weeks ago was a big one for New England and the line swing here is enormous. The Patriots fall into a solid situation based on that setback. Play on road teams that are coming off a loss by 14 or more points as a favorite, in weeks five through nine. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being +6.9 ppg.
New England bounces back on the west coast before heading home to face San Diego next week. Play New England for 1½ units.
Free Pick: Patriots -3 (-111)