Ted Sevransky

Kansas hasn’t gotten a lick of respect from the betting markets all year. In game after game the wise guys played against the Jayhawks; in game after game the wiseguys lost money.

That’s how the Jayhawks – The team that won the national title last year; the team that won the Big 12 this year; a public team if there ever was one – finished as the second-best major conference pointspread team in the country, a near impossible task.

Well the wiseguys are doing it again, and this time they have the TV talking heads agreeing with them. All the pundits are claiming that North Dakota State is going to give Kansas a tough game. We saw the Bison play Minnesota earlier this year and the crowd was half North Dakota State supporters. And there’s no question that NDSU will have plenty of fans making the relatively short trip to Minneapolis for this one.

But let’s not forget how well Kansas travels either. The Jayhawks played in Vegas last year and it was a virtual home game for them. The trip from Lawrence to Minneapolis isn’t that much further than the trip for North Dakota State supporters. Kansas is going to enjoy a raucous crowd of their own, every bit as vocal as the Bisons supporters.

North Dakota St. played one game against an NCAA tournament team this year – at Minnesota. They lost that game by 14. In their previous lined game, last year at Cal, they also lost by 14 against a .500 Cal squad. The Summit League was one of the weakest conferences in all of college basketball this year. Yes, the Bison have a starting five of seniors, but remember, these guys have never played in a game of this magnitude in their lives. They are not Kansas in terms of size, speed, poise or experience.

Sherron Collins in the backcourt and Cole Aldrich in the frontcourt have the potential to be impact players at the next level, far superior than anybody North Dakota State has faced this year. The only underrated, undervalued team on this floor is the cheaply priced favorite.

Free Pick: Kansas -9½ (-110)

For an opposing view, CLICK HERE

If you look at season-long numbers, it’s not hard to make a case for Cal here. The Bears have been real overachievers this season. They are the best 3-point shooting squad in the country, hitting 43% from beyond the arc as a team. I’ll give head coach Mike Montgomery all the credit in the world.

Remember, the Bears lost two NBA draft picks from a team that went 6-12 in the Pac-10 last year and lost in the first round of the NIT, but improved to 22 wins overall and 11-7 in conference play this year.

But Cal did not play their best basketball down the stretch. They lost four out of six entering the Big Dance, and won only twice in their final eight non-home games, with one of those wins coming against hapless Oregon. The Bears do not play much defense and they consistently get beaten on the boards; this is a team with limited size and depth inside.

A season-long look at Maryland leaves them squarely in the mediocre category, but the Terps have most assuredly played their best basketball of the season in recent weeks. Maryland will have the best player on the court, unselfish leader Greivis Vasquez, who lit up both North Carolina and Wake Forest in upset wins over the Tar Heels and Demon Deacons.

Maryland had problems with bigger teams all year long – they don’t have much interior size or depth either – but Cal isn’t capable of exploiting that weakness. I’ll take the team playing their best basketball now over the team that peaked a month or two ago.

Free Pick: Maryland +1½ (-110)

For an opposing view CLICK HERE

Entering tonight's MAC Tournament contest, Kent State played 15 games away from home this year. They lost 10 of those games outright. Three times they earned narrow victories, winning in overtime at St Louis, in overtime at the same Northern Illinois team they’ll face today, and by seven at Ball State.

Only twice in those 15 non-home games did the Golden Flashes beat anyone by this type of margin; with only one of those victories coming in MAC play. Six of their last seven victories overall came by seven points or less. Even for the superior team, this pointspread looks awfully high.

Northern Illinois has gotten better as the season has progressed, and they enter MAC Tournament play having won three of their last five and four out of seven. There was nothing fraudulent about the Huskies taking the Golden Flashes to overtime in the lone previous meeting between these two teams this year. Northern Illinois shot only 37% from the floor in that game, and they missed a whopping 18 free throws, yet they were still able to hang around for 45 full minutes.

Kent State didn’t own the paint, they didn’t get good offensive looks all evening long, and the Huskies defensive pressure forced 23 Golden Flashes turnovers. Expect this game to be more competitive than the betting marketplace expects.

Free Pick: Northern Illinois +12 (-110)

The Toronto Raptors snapped a seven-game losing streak at Chicago on Friday night with a 20-point road win against the Bulls, and they now look to make it two in a row vs. the Sacramento Kings.

During this span, the Raptors were underdogs six times, facing Boston twice, along with Atlanta, Detroit and the improving Pacers on the road, as well as the Phoenix Suns at home. Even in defeat, the Raptors have remained competitive, losing only one of those games by more than seven points.

They took the Celtics to overtime. They came one shot away from upsetting Phoenix and Atlanta. While things have been rough in recent weeks, this is not a team that’s falling apart right now. Rather, they are a team that’s about to come together.

Toronto just completed a 10-game stretch without two key starters, center Jermaine O’Neal and point guard Jose Calderon. O’Neal returned to the court last Wednesday and Calderon joined him on Friday.

Calderon’s injury, in particular, has really hampered this team offensively. They were clearly sparked by his return on Friday. Head coach Jay Triano: “It’s completely different with him on the floor. He’s in control of the ball. He’s in control of the other players on the floor. He makes shots. He makes plays.”

When a struggling team returns home after a tough scheduling stretch and gets two key starters back in the lineup at the same time, it’s definitely a spot for us to seriously consider supporting them. Their opponents here are coming off a brutal two-point road loss in a wild, up-tempo game at Milwaukee last night to drop their record to 0-17 against the Eastern Conference and 3-19 on the road.

Expect a lethargic effort from the Kings and an inspired effort from the Raptors, leading to a double digit win for the home team tonight.

Free Pick: Raptors -9 (-110)

The Washington Wizards have been favored on eight different occasions so far this season. They’ve lost seven of those games in straight up fashion, consistently unable to beat weaker foes, even at home.

The Wizards have virtually no homecourt edge, playing in front of lethargic, half-empty crowds at the Verizon Center. They aren’t playing a lick of defense these days, ranked #27 out of 30 NBA teams in defensive field goal percentage allowed. They don’t rebound well, ranked #24 in the rebounding margin.

Offensively, without Gilbert Arenas or Deshawn Stevenson in the lineup, relying on newly acquired Mike James at the point, the Wiz are settling for perimeter jumpers, #26 in the league in shooting percentage. In their last six games, five of them losses, Washington has been held below 90 points on five occasions. During that span the Wizards are shooting a truly woeful 21% from three point land.

Washington lost to Charlotte when these two teams last met just before Christmas. They lost at home to the Bobcats in their last try here at the Verizon Center. And we can expect a strong showing here from Larry Brown’s squad, winless on their current road trip with a game at Detroit next – if the Bobcats are going to steal a win on this trip, Washington is the team they can do it against, and the team they’ll have the confidence to do it against. Take Charlotte.

Free Pick: Bobcats +3 (-110)

Things went from bad to worse for Tennessee immediately following Philip Fulmer’s resignation, effective at the end of the season. The Vols had been struggling mightily prior to Fulmer’s announcement – heck, if they weren’t doing so poorly, he wouldn’t have quit.

Then came the 13-7 home loss to Wyoming, as 25-point chalk, as embarrassing a performance as we’ve seen out of Tennessee since their wipeout loss to Maryland back in the 2002 Peach Bowl. The Wyoming game came at the end of a brutal stretch for the Vols. They hadn’t had a bye since Week 2; had just suffered embarrassing beat-down losses at the hands of Alabama and South Carolina; and saw their head coach, under tremendous fire, announce his resignation, effective at the end of the season. No wonder they came out flat!

Now the Vols are rested and ready to take on their in-state foe, in the midst of a far better season than Tennessee is having. The Vols have absolutely dominated this series, winning 24 of the last 25 meetings in straight up fashion; 67-9-2 since 1928. Tennessee can avoid the worst season in the history of the program with a win here, and they are in an ideal position to do it.

Fulmer, talking about the impact of the bye week said, "We had a chance to do some fundamental work while also physically and mentally getting some rest after nine straight football games."

Tennessee certainly got healthy over the bye. Key defensive cogs Dan Williams, Walter Fisher and Ellix Wilson are all expected to be at or near 100% this week. That’s bad news for the sluggish Vanderbilt offense, a unit held to 14 points or less for five straight weeks before last week’s dominant showing at Kentucky.

While Jonathan Crompton is expected to start at quarterback for the Vols, redshirt frosh BJ Coleman had a phenomenal performance in the JV game last weekend, and should see some snaps here, particularly if Crompton struggles again.

Vandy just notched their sixth win last week, clinching bowl eligibility for the first time since 1982. This sets up as a major flat spot for the Commodores, even against an in-state rival that has dominated them for decades. There’s no question that Tennessee has the more talented personnel on both sides of the football. This week, I expect to see the level of effort that corresponds with that talent base.

Free Pick: Tennessee +3 (-110)

The Jacksonville Jaguars looked great last week, beating up the Detroit Lions 38-14.

Prior to the game, the money poured in on the Lions, as the betting marketplace was convinced that Jack Del Rio’s squad was beset with internal turmoil. Rather than falling apart in Detroit, however, the Jaguars pulled together, earning their first win of the year by more than a touchdown.

This week, the betting marketplace seems to think that all of the Jaguars problems are solved. The money has poured in on Jacksonville, as bettors are looking for the Jags to end the Tennessee Titans perfect season.

Clearly, these bettors have paid no attention to recent history. Let’s start with this key fact - Jacksonville has no homefield edge whatsoever. The Jags are 0-fer the season against the spread at home, losing as a favorite in straight up fashion in three of their four home games.

Then, we must consider this fact that everybody looks great when they play the Lions. There’s a reason that Detroit is 0-9, looking at the NFL’s first winless season since 1976 square in the face. But we’ve seen a very dramatic pattern for teams after they face the NFL’s weakest team.

These teams have been overvalued in the betting marketplace after looking so good against Detroit, unable to step up in class against a “real” opponent. The numbers don’t lie. The first eight teams to beat Detroit went 0-8 against the spread in their next ballgame. That is an under-the-radar angle that is surely worth riding once again here.

Tennessee isn’t a “sexy” undefeated team like the Patriots (16-0 in the regular season) were last year or the Colts in 2005 (13-0 start) and 2006 (9-0 start). There’s no Peyton Manning or Tom Brady on Tennessee. The Titans don’t score 40 points against anybody, they don’t have a household name on the roster and they don’t even have any fantasy studs.

The Titans aren’t sexy, but they are efficient. All they do is win games, much like they did earlier in the Jeff Fisher era when the Titans were routinely earning a significant profit for their supporters on an annual basis.

In a game where a SU win should equal a pointspread cover, I’m quite comfortable backing the team that is finding ways to win, as opposed to the squad that has lost four different games by less than a touchdown in the last eight weeks.

Take Tennessee.

Free Pick: Titans -2½ (-110)

Last year when the Giants and Dolphins met at Wembley Stadium in London, the field conditions could not have been worse. Wembley was built for soccer, not professional football. The description of last year’s game was “a mud-caked slog through the unfriendly pitch at torn-up Wembley Stadium.”

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Dolphins kicker Jay Feely said, "The field was like ice." Both teams were jet-lagged and inconvenienced traveling overseas. It was not pretty football. We should expect more of the same in 2008.

If you’ve ever been to London in the Fall, you know already that it rains almost every day. The lookahead forecast for London on Sunday shows a likelihood of rain falling throughout the game, leaving the field in ‘quagmire’ conditions once again.

Yes, the Saints and Chargers both have explosive, high powered offenses. But let’s not forget that these two offenses combined to produce just 21 points in good conditions this past weekend. And each team’s defense has exceeded expectations in recent weeks as well. After a streak of five consecutive Overs to open the season, the Saints have now gone Under the total in each of the last two weeks, with the Chargers riding a three-game Under streak of their own.

In a game where staying healthy in ugly conditions is likely to be every bit as important as winning, look for both coaches to utilize conservative gameplans, leading to another low scoring affair. Take the Under.

Free Pick: Chargers-Saints Under 45½ (-110)

It’s not too difficult making a case against East Carolina as a favorite of more than a touchdown these days. The Pirates were the talk of the college football world in early September, after notching impressive upset wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia in their first two games of the season. Since that time, however, East Carolina has completely fallen apart, bad news for a senior laden team with their BCS busting dreams are now a thing of the past.

East Carolina’s defense carried them to those two early season upsets. That defense has not been the same since star linebacker Brandon Cotton got hurt against Tulane. East Carolina’s last two opponents have rushed AND passed for more than 200 yards against them. In their last three games, they’ve allowed 30, 41 and 35 points, despite coming up with a whopping eight takeaways during that span. Memphis gained nearly 500 yards of offense and 40 points last year against a better Pirates defense than the one they’ll face here.

Since those two national TV wins to open the season, East Carolina hasn’t even sniffed a pointspread cover. They barely outlasted Tulane in a four point win over the Green Wave. Then, they lost outright as favorites against NC State, Houston and Virginia, dropping their record to 3-3. This is a banged up, unfocused .500 football team right now; a long, long way from realizing their BCS aspirations. I don’t think that Skip Holtz’s squad will recover from their recent dreadful performances this week.

Memphis outplayed Louisville on national TV last Thursday Night, but they came up short on the scoreboard in a seven point loss. Still, the Tigers came away from that game confident and focused after outgaining the Cardinals 481-299. QB Arkelon Hall threw for 350 yards in that ballgame, while running back Curtis Steele moved the chains on the ground. The four touchdowns that Memphis put up against a Big East defense was their lowest offensive output in the last month! This team can put up points in bunches, plain and simple, loaded with skill position talent.

The Tigers are 4-1 SU in their last five on the road in Conference USA play; the lone loss coming by a single point at Marshall. In fact, over the last few seasons, we’ve seen Memphis beat just about every quality team in this conference at their house: Houston, Southern Miss (twice), Tulane, Rice, and yes, East Carolina. We don’t need the outright win to cash our ticket here, but I wouldn’t be shocked if we get it Take Memphis.

Free Pick: Memphis +8 (-110)

Yes, the Redskins have won four straight games, including road upsets at Dallas and Philadelphia. But at no point in any of those four victories did the Redskins enjoy a two touchdown lead.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]The four victories were all decided in the fourth quarter, each coming by a touchdown or less. This is not an offense built for easy blowouts, nor does the obvious flat spot on their schedule following the two divisional road wins provide much fodder for the ‘blow out St Louis’ theory. And let’s not forget the absolute ineptitude of double digit favorites in the NFL this season. The league as a whole is a perfect 0-7 ATS when laying ten points or more.

Speaking of ‘whole league’ angles, let’s also not forget a key long term angle that supports a play on the Rams in this spot. Teams that are 0-4 SU or worse, coming off their bye week, as an underdog of six points or more are a truly phenomenal long term against the spread. They spend two weeks hearing about how much they stink – from friends, family, the local media – and then these winless teams off a bye tend to take out some of their frustrations upon their opponent. Throw in a coaching change in St Louis and we can clearly see that the Rams are poised for their single best showing of the season; a major step up for a team that has now lost eight consecutive games dating back to last year, the most recent seven defeats all coming by 17 points or more.

With Marc Bulger back behind center for Jim Haslett’s squad here, look for the Rams to be competitive throughout, just as winless Cinci was in Dallas last week. Take St Louis.

Free Pick: Rams +14 (-115)

Hurricane Ike might not have destroyed a city like Hurricane Katrina did two years ago, but it certainly has had a tremendous impact on every resident of Houston and the surrounding area.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Millions (literally) are still without power, and the distractions for any sports team are most certainly significant. To prove this, all we need to do is look at the results for every sports team from Houston since the hurricane hit.

In college football, we’ve seen the Houston Cougars lose straight up and ATS as a favorite twice. It’s the same story for the Rice Owls – 0-2 SU and ATS since the hurricane hit. The Houston Astros were within two games of the wild card berth before the hurricane hit, the hottest team in baseball. After the hurricane devastated their homes and families, the Astros lost five straight, getting only 16 hits in the process. That’s the fewest hits in any five-game span in the history of the franchise. They beat the lowly Pirates on Friday, but went back to their losing ways again on Saturday.

Houston Texans tight end Owen Daniels said “It was weird being away from football for three or four days and really having your focus be completely off of it. I couldn’t help but not think about football because I had to think about fixing my house and making sure my neighbors were alright. ….It’s a mess. I have big holes in my ceilings (and) the carpet’s ruined. I’d say I really don’t like (hurricanes).” A giant pine bashed into defensive end Mario Williams’ new home and the roof of his mother’s home in blew off. Wide receiver Andre Johnson added “It was bad, worse that what I thought it would be. It’s a devastating time.” Quarterback Matt Schaub surmised “It’s going to be very challenging for us.”

Given the track record of every other team from Houston, and the personal crisis of the Texans players over the past two weeks, this pointspread looks awfully low. And when we consider that the Tennessee Titans enjoyed two of their three highest scoring games last year in a pair of wins over the Texans, this one becomes a no-brainer.

Take the Titans.

Free Pick: Titans -4½ (-110)

Sometimes, there are very legitimate reasons to support some of the worst teams in college football. This is one of those times.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Yes, Army is ranked #120 out of 120 teams in my latest college football power ratings. Yes, the Cadets lost to Temple 35-7 and New Hampshire 28-10 in their first two ballgames, both right here at West Point. But if Army is going to win one game this year, it’ll be this Saturday – quite simply, this is their spot.

Head coach Stan Brock flipped out following the ugly loss to New Hampshire.  "I'm embarrassed. I'm ashamed – not that we lost to the University of New Hampshire, because they are a good football team, but by the way we did it.

"In the second half, when things started going bad, I think there's some guys [who] quit... I'm ashamed. I apologize to the United States Military, Corps of Cadets, anybody really who watched that game. That's not the way that these kids need to play this game."

Army has had two weeks to prep for Akron and their starting quarterback, Carson Williams, has been upgraded to 'probable,' while the Zips are caught in an ugly sandwich spot between a 17-point home loss to Ball State that opened their MAC campaign, and an in-state rivalry game against Cincinnati next week. The Zips struggled against Army last year, eking out an eight-point win at home. Their defensive front has been decimated with injuries, and frankly, I’m not expecting their best effort here to begin with.

With the betting marketplace seemingly in love with Akron, betting them up all week, this is one spot where a play on the worst team in college football makes perfect sense. Take Army.

Free Pick: Army +10 (-110)

The Seahawks offense is a complete disaster area right now, and the San Francisco 49ers are hardly an offensive juggernaut either.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]We’re talking about a West Coast attack in Seattle featuring a quarterback with a bad back throwing to a receiving corps that has been positively decimated with injuries. Bobby Engram, Deion Branch and Ben Obomanu were all out of action last week (and this week as well). Their lone remaining proven receiving threat, Nate Burleson, got hurt last week and is out for the year. That leaves Courtney Taylor, Jordan Kent and Logan Payne, a trio with nine career catches between them, to be the difference makers in this timing based offense.

To make matters even worse, the Seahawks have shown no signs of improving a subpar running game from last year. Their big free agent signee, RB Julius Jones, managed only 45 yards on the ground last week, 24 of them coming on a single carry. Starter Maurice Morris got hurt last week and won’t play this time around. The Seahawks offensive line was mediocre at best in their opener, with Hasselbeck taking five sacks and the runners consistently getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. This is not an offense poised to score points in bunches.

The 49ers offense isn’t exactly poised to light up the scoreboard either. JT O’Sullivan will be making only his second career start here, facing a talented and aggressive, blitz happy defense. It’s worth noting that O’Sullivan completed only 14 passes in his debut as the starter last week, with only four of those passes going to wide receivers downfield. In a hostile road environment expect a steady diet of Frank Gore runs to protect their inexperienced quarterback. This has all the makings of a very low scoring ballgame.

Take the Under.

Free Pick: 49ers, Seahawks Under 38 (-110)

Week 1 is always the lowest scoring week of the college football season, with offenses needing a bit of work against 'real' defenses before they can get into any kind of a rhythm. Historically, the biggest increase from scoring from week to week occurs between the first and second week of the season. For example, in 2007 scoring increased by more than eight points per game from Week 1 to Week 2, while Overs cashed at a 67% clip. There’s no shame in looking for solid Overs to bet this week.

Texas Tech put up 639 yards of offense in their opener last week, scoring 49 points, yet we’re getting quotes like these from the Red Raiders head coach Mike Leach: "We are a spotty team. I don't think that we played what I consider well more than three series in a row on either side of the ball."

Third year quarterback Graham Harrell said, "That was a pretty sloppy game and offensively we were pretty sloppy. We've got a long ways to go and a lot of room to get better."

I expect a focused, well-executed performance from an offense that scored 41 points per game last year, facing a slower, undersized Nevada defense that struggles to stop high octane attacks.

But don’t sell the Wolfpack’s offense short either. Head coach Chris Ault has found the perfect quarterback to run his pistol offense in sophomore Colin Kaepernick, the WAC Freshman of the Year last season. Eight starters return from an offense that scored 33 points per game last year, six points higher than that at home.

Expect a wild shootout in Reno on Saturday Night, sending this game flying Over the total.

Free Pick: Texas Tech-Nevada Over 67 (-110)

This one is real simple. New England closed out the regular season last year with a 1-5 ATS mark, favored by double digits in every single game. Their only pointspread cover during that span came against a Steelers team that was talking trash all week, giving the Patriots that extra motivation that they needed.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]In the playoffs, New England went 0-3 ATS, all as double-digit favorites. In the preseason, the Pats went 0-4 ATS, failing to sniff a pointspread cover in any of their four games. We’re talking about a team that is vastly overvalued by the betting marketplace, in the midst of a 1-12 ATS slide; 1-8 as double digit chalk.

Tom Brady didn’t take a snap in the preseason, and he didn’t even rejoin practice until Wednesday. There are rumors swirling that Brady’s injury is far more serious than the Pats have indicated – potentially a fractured leg. His injury riddled offensive line is suspect at best. Key third down back Kevin Faulk is suspended, tight end Ben Watson has a bad knee and Donte Stallworth will be catching passes in Cleveland this year. This is not the same explosive offense that we saw last year. And with question marks all over their secondary, the backdoor should be wide open for Kansas City if the Pats somehow manage to pull away with a big lead.

The Chiefs might be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year, but let’s not forget head coach Herm Edwards' penchant for playing conservative football, keeping the games close. In Edwards' two seasons as the Kansas City head honcho, 13 of their 19 losses have come by 11 points or less. Look for that trend to continue here – the Pats have no business laying points in this range to even the weakest of foes here in Week 1. Take the Chiefs.

Free Pick: Chiefs +16 (-110)

The Kansas City Royals wrap up their series with the New York Yankees in the Bronx today.

It’s going to be in the mid 90’s on a humid day in New York City when the first pitch is thrown on Sunday, with the wind blowing out to center field. Clearly, those are ideal conditions for Over bettors. Umpire Phil Cuzzi has a decided ‘Over’ bent; 8-5 to the Over this year and 27-19 to the Over in the last two seasons. And with the Yankees and Royals combining to score 23 runs in a day game yesterday, there’s little reason to expect anything but another high scoring ballgame again today.

Yes, Joba Chamberlain has nasty stuff, and the Royals are not a good offensive team, ranked dead last in the AL in runs scored. But Chamberlain will be on a strict pitch count (no more than 75-80 pitches), and the Yankees middle relief behind him has been a problem area for New York all season. And frankly, it might not take more than a handful of runs from Kansas City to send this game Over the total.

Yes, Zack Grienke has been the Royals best pitcher for much of the season, and yes, he shut down the Bronx Bombers in his lone previous start against them back in April. But Grienke has been roughed up for 17 earned runs and 23 hits in his last three starts, including allowing four home runs in his last trip to the hill. The Royals bullpen behind him, too, is a major problem area after six relievers combined to throw 106 pitches in yesterday’s slugfest, and closer Joakim Soria won’t be available here after pitching in each of the first two games of this series. Meanwhile, the Yankees offense is starting to come alive, with a nine run outburst on Thursday preceding yesterday’s 12 run attack.

Take the Over today.

Free Pick: Royals, Yankees Over 9 (-110)

New Orleans is getting far too much credit from the linesmakers for a misleading home victory over the only team in the entire league that has no hope of making the playoffs.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Yes, the VooDoo beat Columbus by three touchdowns at home last week, where they are 6-1 this season. But the VooDoo and the Destroyers both scored nine touchdowns on 1 meaningful drives. The difference in the game were a pair of net recoveries on kickoffs for New Orleans (the ultimate ‘lucky’ play) and an interception return for touchdown with no time left on the clock in the first half. New Orleans is still only 1-3 SU in their last four games, and they are just 2-4 SU on the highway, yet they are priced in a pointspread range where they’ll likely need a straight up win to earn a pointspread cover here.

The New York Dragons are trending in the opposite direction right now. Since their 1-4 start, the Dragons are 6-2 SU. Their tremendous defense has held opponents under 50 points in seven of their last nine ballgames. Meanwhile, Hall-of-Fame quarterback Aaron Garcia guided the team to ten touchdowns and a field goal on their 11 meaningful possessions last week. In fact, this offense has averaged 62 points per game in their last four home games, scoring at least 56 each time.

Let’s take advantage of yet another bad pointspread in a season full of bad pointspreads from the linesmakers with a play on the Dragons as short home favorites here. Take New York.

Current Line: NY -1½; reduce wager size to half a unit at -3 or higher.

Free Pick: Dragons -1½ (-110)

It’s not hard to bet Aaron Laffey games under the total right now, even against good hitting teams like the Rangers. Yes, it’ll be a warm night in Texas, and yes we saw the Rangers and A’s combine to pound out 33 runs in the final two games of their series here over the weekend.

But let’s not forget about the strong winds blowing in from right field tonight. Nor should we fail to appreciate just how good Laffey has been – his 0.79 ERA for the month of May was the lowest of any starting pitcher in baseball, with five consecutive absolutely dominant outings. The Rangers haven’t hit lefties all year, hitting 39 points higher against righties than southpaws for the season, and an even sharper .248/.332 lefty/righty split in their last 10 games.

Meanwhile, Cleveland’s offensive woes continue to mar their season. They were held to three runs in their final two games at Kansas City over the weekend, helping the Royals break their extended losing streak. Those results are typical for the light hitting Indians on the road – they’ve averaged just 3.5 runs per game away from home for the entire season. Cleveland has been held to three runs or less nine times in their last eleven road games, making this total look a tad bit too high.

When we factor in the success of Rangers rookie Doug Mathis in his last outing, holding this same Indians lineup to a single run in six innings of work in 2-1 Texas victory, the Under here looks rock solid. Take the Under.

Free Pick: Indians-Rangers Under 10 (-110)

St Louis went from a World Series title to a 78-84 record last year. The drop off in '08 might be just as significant, if not more so, as the Cardinals look very much like one of the worst teams in the NL heading into the regular season.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Let’s not forget how the Cards started off 2007, getting outscored 20-2 in a three-game sweep at home at the hands of the New York Mets, part of a 1-7 start to the season at Busch Stadium. There’s little reason to expect this season to start any differently.

The Cardinals' offseason was nothing short of an unmitigated disaster. Among the departed are many of the key cogs in their 2006 World Series run: shortstop David Eckstein, third baseman Scott Rolen and center fielder Jim Edmonds among others, without acquiring adequate replacements. Make no mistake about it – this isn’t a mediocre team, it’s a bad team, not yet priced correctly by the betting marketplace.

Jeff Francis was the Rockies' undisputed ace last year, carrying the starting rotation for a good portion of the season before other guys stepped up in September to allow Colorado to go on their record-setting late season push into the playoffs. Francis won a career high 17 games last year, going 9-4 after the All-Star break and 2-1 in the playoffs.

Francis has completely shut down the Cardinals in six previous career starts against them: 4-1 with a 2.28 ERA. And with Luis Vizcaino signed to set up for closer Manny Corpas, six strong innings from Francis should be more than enough to earn the Rockies their first victory of the 2008 campaign. Take Colorado.

Free Pick: Rockies -106

In each of the last two years, Washington State has absolutely dominated their non-conference opposition. The Cougars reeled off 14 consecutive victories to start this season, 9-4 ATS during that run. That included SU and ATS road victories at NCAA tournament bound teams Gonzaga, Baylor and Boise State, not to mention a 15-point win at USC on the opening weekend of PAC-10 play.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Last year, the Cougars went 11-1 in early season non-conference action, and started the season by covering 10 of their first 15 lined games. Tony Bennett’s team runs an extraordinarily difficult offensive system to defend, particularly for opponents who haven’t seen it before, and their defense is as sticky as it gets. That’s why the Cougars' SU and ATS results tend to deteriorate down the stretch of the PAC-10 campaign – the other PAC-10 schools have seen it before, and they can prepare for it much better the second time around.

North Carolina has no such advantage. And we saw how good this Cougars team can be with a unique level of motivation and focus.  Following a sluggish first half against Winthrop on Thursday, Wassou went on an incredible 36-5 run to open up the second half, then carried that momentum forward with an absolutely dominant showing against the Fighting Irish, holding Notre Dame to a season-low 13 field goals.

The Tar Heels were able to control pace and tempo in each of their first two opening weekend games, hanging 113 on Mt St Mary’s and 108 on Arkansas while shooting 61 percent and 68 percent from the floor in those two contests. Neither the Razorbacks nor the Mountaineers were capable of running with the Tar Heels, but neither squad had the defensive acumen to control the pace. Wassou has that acumen, and they are most assuredly a very talented team still searching for respect.

Every team gets tested on their way to the Final Four. Expect this game to be the Tar Heels' first true test of the tournament. Take the Cougars.

Free Pick: Washington State +8½ (-109)

UNLV has three advantages in their effort to hang tough against Kansas as double digit underdogs on Saturday. First, the Rebels handle the basketball extremely well. UNLV won’t succumb to the Jayhawks pressure, committing only nine turnovers per game in their last five contests; less than 11 per game (with an impressive 1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio) for the entire season. Don’t expect many easy fast break opportunities for the Jayhawks off bad turnovers.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Secondly, UNLV head coach Lon Kruger prepares his team as well as any coach in the country, an outstanding ATS performer as an underdog. Even when the Rebels are outclassed in the size department, like they are here, their defensive intensity keeps them in games against superior opposition. Quite simply, this team doesn’t give up many easy looks.

Lastly, UNLV does all the little things right. They are the better free throw shooting team in this matchup. They drain their open looks from three-point land, swinging the ball extremely well from side to side of the court. The Rebels don’t beat themselves.

In a game where all the pressure is on Kansas, a consistent underachiever during tournament time in the Bill Self era, expect the Rebels to play as if they have nothing to lose. We don’t need an outright upset or anything close to cash our ticket – a relatively competitive loss does the trick just fine.

Free Pick: UNLV +13½ (-110)

SBR Printable March Madness Brackets

I don’t lay points very often in conference tournaments, but there are times where the chalk is the clear choice to make. Usually, these are the type of games where the underdog has but one game left in their season – this game.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Colorado State is that kind of an underdog. It’s hard for a 6-24 team that went winless in Mountain West play to get excited about their chances. It’s even harder when they have to travel for an early start game here in Vegas, a game that probably won’t have more than a smattering of fans in the Thomas and Mack Arena for the 11:00 a.m. local time tip-off.

When we throw in the injury situation for this very bad team it gets even worse for their psyche and their chances of making a stand. Colorado State has a pair of seven footers in Stuart Creason and Ronnie Aguilar, a duo that combines for 16 points and 12 rebounds per game. Neither is expected to play here, suffering from ankle and foot injuries respectively.

Wyoming won both regular season meetings by double digit margins. They covered the spread in their Mountain West Conference tournament opener last year by a double digit margin as well. Expect a similar result this time around. Take the Cowboys.

Free Pick: Wyoming -6½ (-110)

Get your free Printable NCAA Brackets from SBRforum.com

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The Denver Nuggets could be walking into a buzz-saw when they visit the Charlotte Bobcats this evening.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]The Bobcats have played their best basketball of the season over the last week, despite only coming away with two wins in the four games that they played. The recent surge of intensity began last Tuesday, after part owner and personnel guru Michael Jordan played a rare active role with the team, hanging out in the locker room and the weight room for a couple of hours prior to the Bobcats game against the New Jersey Nets. Lo and behold, Charlotte came out and dominated the previously red hot New Jersey Nets in a 16 point blowout. Young guard Ray Felton: “It's always good to have him around. He's a guy who's a big part of basketball, period. Always when he's around, it helps out a lot.”

The Bobcats didn’t stop with that single victory. Sam Vincent’s squad then went on the road, to the Fleet Center, and handed Boston only their fourth loss of the season. Then, they traveled to Cleveland and took the defending Eastern Conference champs into double overtime before falling short in a spread covering loss. Not discouraged, the Bobcats returned home to battle perennial Eastern Conference powerhouse Detroit, and took the Pistons into overtime before falling short. Even with a banged up backcourt, we can expect the Bobcats to continue their current uptick as home underdogs against Denver tonight.

Free Pick: Bobcats +4½

The Redskins are a nice story, a team that has rallied around a backup quarterback following the death of one of their most talented and popular players, reeling off four straight wins and covers to earn a wild card berth.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]But legitimate questions persist about the Redskins' ability to carry that momentum forward into the postseason. In fact, Washington faces extremely difficult matchups on both sides of the football as they travel to face the Seahawks on Saturday.

Make no mistake about it – Seattle’s home field is one of the strongest in the NFL. The Seahawks went 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS at home this year, the lone loss coming back in early October thanks to a handful of special teams breakdowns. And the crowd noise here is second to none, creating all kinds of problems for opposing offenses. An offense like the Redskins, with a backup QB behind center and a handful of key line injuries is a bad matchup against a Seahawks defense that sacked opposing quarterbacks 45 times this season, fourth in the NFL. We can expect pass rushing force Patrick Kerney (14 sacks this year) and blitzing machine Julian Peterson (10 sacks) to have success pressuring Todd Collins into mistakes.

On the other side of the football, the Seahawks match up very well with Washington. The Redskins lost pro bowl safety Sean Taylor last month, and former #1 pick Carlos Rogers won’t be playing in the secondary either. Mike Holmgren has been perfectly comfortable with the ‘pass first’ offense of Seattle, eschewing the running game repeatedly over the second half of the season. Matt Hasselbeck guided this team to the Super Bowl only two years ago, and his receiving corps is as healthy as they’ve been all season, with Bobby Engram, Nate Burleson and Deion Branch all at 100%.

Look for the Redskins secondary to struggle against this elite level passing game, as Seattle cruises to victory. Take the Seahawks.

Free Pick: Seahawks -3½ (-110)

Auburn was a relatively boring, defense-first team this year, exactly the type of team that gets overlooked when bowl season comes around. The Tigers lacked a single marquee offensive playmaker in a conference loaded with them. QB Brandon Cox, a senior, threw only nine touchdown passes all year, and the Tigers finished with the 107th ranked passing offense in the country. And leading rusher Ben Tate split carries with Brad Lester and Mario Fennin, leaving Auburn without a 1000 yard rusher either.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]In short, this team didn’t impress the betting public very much, giving us value supporting them here as an underdog against an inferior team from a weaker conference.

Auburn’s defense was downright dominant all year. On the road, against Heisman winner Tim Tebow, Auburn held the Gators to their season low in both points and total yards, engineering the outright road upset. On the road, against Heisman runner-up Darren McFadden at Arkansas, the Razorbacks, too, were held to season lows in both yardage and points in an outright upset win for the Tigers. We’re talking about a defense that held five of their last seven opponents to ten points or less, the type of defense that should have little trouble shutting down this pedestrian Clemson attack.

Clemson dominated weak foes all year long, but in sharp contrast to Auburn, they did not fare well when stepping up in class. These Tigers were more like kitty-cats against their elite level foes, blasted at home by both Virginia Tech and Boston College, while being held to a single field goal in an ugly loss at Georgia Tech. And, unlike Auburn, Clemson did not fare well away from home against quality defenses.

Tommy Bowden’s squad lost straight up as a double digit favorite against Kentucky in their bowl game last year. Expect a similar result this time around. Take Auburn.

Free Pick: Auburn +2½ (-106)

Tony Dungy’s track record as the Indianapolis Colts head coach is remarkably consistent, and we do not expect much change when the Colts face the hot Houston Texans Sunday.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]This is Dungy’s sixth year on the job in Indianapolis. In his five previous seasons, the Colts have been just where they are now, a team with double-digit wins tuning up and getting healthy for a playoff run. Also in those five previous seasons, the Colts’ record against the spread is remarkably similar in their final two regular season games, that being 0-2 ATS every single year! That puts Dungy and his Colts on an 0-10 ATS run in the final two games of the season heading into their game against Houston on Sunday, a trend that I fully expect to continue.

Dungy has stated that he won’t be resting his starters this week. That most assuredly doesn’t mean that Indy is going to have a full team of starters in the game on either side of the football when the point spread outcome is likely to be determined in the fourth quarter. While Dungy has said that he won’t be resting healthy starters, he’s also said that with the Colts locked into the two seed in the AFC, the myriad of banged up and injured Colts are not likely to see much playing time here. That list of banged up players is remarkably long, including defensive end Robert Mathis, defensive tackle Raheem Brock, offensive tackle Ryan Diem, cornerback Antoine Bethea, and many, many others. They’ll join Marvin Harrison, Dwight Freeney and many others on the sidelines for this game, and should the Colts take a solid early lead, don’t be surprised to see Peyton Manning sit in favor of Jim Sorgi in the second half. Indy will not be playing with full intensity this week.

That most assuredly is not the case for the Houston Texans. Gary Kubiak’s squad is sitting at .500 in the toughest division in football, with a chance to earn the first winning record in the six year existence of the franchise. Yes, Houston was eliminated from playoff contention last week, but all signs point towards a concerted effort in Indy on Sunday.

With the Sage Rosenfels/Andre Johnson passing tandem making big plays every week, and with Ron Dayne continuing to grind out tough yards on the ground, look for the Texans to keep this one close throughout, with a chance at the outright upset.

Free Pick: Texans +7

Very quietly under the radar, the Jacksonville Jaguars have become one of the NFL’s strongest Over teams. The Jags have gone over the total in each of their last seven games, producing a combined score of at least 41 points each time.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Jacksonville’s offense has become a well oiled machine, putting up 24+ in each of those last seven games. Quarterback David Garrard has only thrown one interception all year. And Jacksonville’s strong running game, led by the duo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, ensures that when they reach the red zone, they score touchdowns. The Jags have big play potential from their running game as well as their passing game, and let’s not forget to mention the defensive touchdown that Jacksonville scored last week – this team finds ways to reach the end zone.

Pittsburgh has gone under the total in each of their last two home games, in large part due to the deplorable conditions at Heinz Field in foul weather. But prior to those two weather related Unders, the Steelers at home had been the single strongest Over play in the entire NFL over the past three seasons, 17-3-1 to the Over since the start of the 2005 campaign.

Pittsburgh, like Jacksonville, has extraordinary balance on offense leading to great red zone efficiency. And, while the Steelers have allowed fewer points than any defense in the league this year, let’s not forget the litany of weak offenses that they’ve faced. The last three strong offensive teams that Pittsburgh has faced (Denver, Cleveland and New England), each put up four touchdowns or more against this defense.

As this total plummets south due to the snowy conditions expected in Pittsburgh on Sunday, savvy bettors are waiting until close to kickoff to bet it the other way. Take the Over.

Free Pick: Jaguars-Steelers Over 36 (-110)

Both the Knicks and the Mavericks have been consistent Over teams when facing an up-tempo opponent. Just as importantly, neither squad has been playing a lick of defense in recent weeks. We can expect an ample supply of easy scoring chances when these two disappointments face off tonight in Madison Square Garden, making the Over worthy of a wager in this ballgame.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]The Knicks have been playing some of the worst defense in the NBA in their last five games, allowing opponents to shoot better than 50% from the floor against them. We’ve seen New York face off in track meets against other up-tempo teams here at the Garden, with final scores of 219 against the Suns and 222 against the Jazz in recent home games. Facing a hot-shooting Mavs squad that has cracked the century mark in nine of their last 10 meetings against Isiah Thomas’s squad, we can expect the Knicks defense to be their Achilles heel once again here.

But Dallas isn’t playing a lick of defense either. We saw the Mavs get torched by a Tim Duncan-less Spurs team on national TV last week, then follow up that performance by allowing 122 points to the Nuggets and 117 points to the Jazz in their next two games. For the season, Dallas is 15-6 to the Over, perfectly content to run-n-gun without exerting themselves on the defensive end of the court.

The loser here could easily score 100+, sending this game flying Over the total. Take the Over.

Free Pick: Mavericks-Knicks Over 201 (-106)

The Philadelphia Eagles saw their last realistic chance at a longshot playoff berth go down in flames this past Sunday, as A.J. Feeley threw four interceptions in yet another ugly home loss.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Philadelphia hasn’t enjoyed a tremendous edge at Lincoln Financial Field this season. Their only two home wins have come against the Lions and Dolphins, not exactly a who’s who of quality NFL teams. We’ve seen the Eagles lose straight up as a favorite on this field on three separate occasions, along with their shellacking at home to division rival Dallas, for a 2-4 mark both straight up and against the spread in Philadelphia.

But this is nothing new, as Philly is a .500 team at home dating back to the start of the 2005 season, and they are well under .500 against the spread. They lost here at home to these New York Giants each of the last two years, and there’s little reason to expect the Eagles collective fortunes to change in this meeting against the G-men. After all, Andy Reid’s squad was pretty much dominated in the first meeting between these two teams this year, managing only a single field goal on less than 200 yards of offense.

The Giants, too, are not a team to support at home, but we certainly like their track record in this road underdog situation. Following their come-from-behind win at Chicago this past Sunday, Eli Manning and company have now won and covered each of their last five road games since their Week 1 loss at Dallas.

I’m quite comfortable recommending a play getting the better team as a full field goal underdog in a ‘hostile’ road venue that really isn’t very hostile at all.

Free Pick: Giants +3

The New Jersey Nets and the Detroit Pistons have an early tip-off time Sunday evening.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner] Odd start-time NBA games are not known for their great offensive flow, particularly early in the season when teams haven’t played 48 minutes of competitive basketball in unusual time frames more than once or twice. And when both teams were forced to travel after playing the previous night – in bad weather conditions, mind you -- we can expect the offensive flow to be downright putrid. That’s exactly the case for the Pistons-Nets matchup on Sunday at the Palace.

Frankly, we don’t need bad weather or awkward starting times, or the second night of back-to-backs and post-overtime fatigue (for the Nets, anyway) to make a case for a Detroit- New Jersey Under. These two teams have a remarkably consistent recent history of low scoring ballgames, although their string of six consecutive Unders was finally broken late in the season last year. We’re talking about two of the better defensive teams in the NBA, after all, and neither of these two teams is intent on pushing the pace with quick fast break buckets.

Expect a low scoring (some might call it a wee bit boring) ballgame, staying well Under the total. Take the Under.

Free Pick: Nets, Pistons Under 182

Dennis Dixon has made quite a case for himself as the Heisman winner since he got hurt. Yes, you read that sentence correctly – Dixon’s absence has proven what a difference maker he was for the Ducks.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Before Dixon got hurt in the first quarter of the Arizona game on Nov 15, the Ducks had the most potent offense of any major conference team in the country. They’d put up 48+ in more than half of their games, gaining more than 250 yards on the ground and 225 through the air on average.

Brady Leaf got the nod when Dixon went down. Much like his maligned older brother Ryan, Brady struggled mightily when put in the spotlight. He, too, got hurt, leaving untested third and fourth string redshirt frosh QB’s Cody Kempt and Justin Roper to split time against UCLA last week. The results were predictable: Oregon got shut out. Now a team that was thinking national championship only two games ago in danger of finishing in sixth place in the PAC-10!

Mike Belotti’s teams have a long history of responding poorly to adversity. Last year the Ducks were 7-2 when they got blasted by USC. They lost their final three games of the season to finish at 7-6. We saw a similar late season collapse in 2004, when three season ending losses turned a promising season into a 5-6 disaster. In ’02 the Ducks were 7-2 before closing out the campaign with four consecutive defeats. With no quarterback, and a track record like the one described above, it’s not hard to make a case for another Duck meltdown here in 2007.

Meanwhile, very quietly underneath the radar, Oregon State has won five of their last six, the lone loss coming at USC. The Beavers have one of the strongest rushing defenses in all of college football, holding foes to 64 rushing yards per game (1.9 yards per carry) for the season. Mike Riley loves to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks; that's bad news for the Ducks young signal callers here. And while the Beavers are playing without their starting QB as well, backup Lyle Moevao has rebounded nicely from some early season struggles, guiding the Beavers to victory in each of his two starts.

Look for Moevao to make it three in a row with a win in Eugene on Saturday. Take Oregon State.

Free Pick: Oregon St. -1 (-110)

Last year, the SMU Mustangs program seemed to be on the verge of finally turning the corner towards respectability.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]The Mustangs finished 6-6 in 2006, and freshman quarterback Justin Willis looked to be a star in the making, with a 26-6 touchdown to interception ratio in his first year as the starter, finishing second in high octane Conference USA in pass efficiency. However, things went wrong for SMU from Day 1 this year, as they were blown out on national TV in their opener against Texas Tech. Since that time, SMU has managed only one victory, at home against lowly North Texas. Head coach Phil Bennett was fired midseason, but still allowed to finish the campaign.

Bennett’s team showed no passion playing for their lame duck head coach, as even their home finale against Central Florida last week turned into an ugly rout, a 49-20 defeat. Willis has thrown 16 picks in 2007, in sharp contrast to his six interceptions last year. Also, the Mustangs defense has been downright awful, as they’ve allowed 38 points or more four times in their last five games. This is a horrible team that can’t wait for the season to be over, not the type of squad that we would expect to show up at all in their meaningless season finale.

Meanwhile, Memphis started off the season in similarly dismal fashion, going just 2-4 through their first six games. The Tigers have come on strong down the stretch however, winning four of their last five, thanks to a prolific passing attack led by senior QB Martin Hankins and a running game that netted 265 net rushing yards last week, led by senior running back Joseph Doss. A win here and the Tigers are likely to go bowling!

The Tigers have the motivation and the talent to destroy this hapless foe, so look for them to close out their regular season with a resounding victory.

Free Pick: Memphis -7½

Spots don’t get much worse than the one that the Pittsburgh Steelers will be in on Sunday when they take on the New York Jets.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Pittsburgh is coming off three consecutive divisional games, emerging victorious from their battles against Cincinnati, Baltimore and Cleveland. Now, what’s coming up for the Steelers? The answer is big games against Cincinnati, New England and Jacksonville. This game positively screams “flat spot” for Mike Tomlin’s squad.

Pittsburgh is not the same team away from Heinz Field. Both of their previous losses came on the road. While Pittsburgh has outscored their opponents by an average of 20 points per game (30-10) at home, their road results are much closer, winning by an average of seven points per game. Throw out their Week 1 showing at Cleveland (a long way in the rear view mirror by now), and the Steelers have actually been outscored in their other three road games combined. Yes, this is a very good Steelers team, and I expect them to win this game. But asking Pittsburgh to notch a double digit road victory is not something I’m willing to do this week.

I like to back bad teams coming off a bye week, particularly playoff teams from a season ago. When they get their bye, these squads have extra time to stew about how poorly their season has gone. They hear it from every angle – friends, family, media members – “you guys stink”. And, nearly universally, these teams come back from their bye with a vengeance poised to prove to the world that they are not as bad as they’ve looked. Meanwhile, their opponent looks at their lowly record and naturally thinks ‘hey, we can beat this team.” As such, the horrific underdog in these games nearly always come out more motivated and more prepared than their opponents, leading to a long term track record of success.

The Jets have been competitive, they just haven’t been winning. Five of their eight losses have come by a touchdown or less, and two more games were within that TD range before one final score in the closing minutes. In other words, seven of the Jets eight losses have come in competitive fashion, the lone exception against New England is perfectly understandable. New starting QB Kellen Clemens looked just fine in previous action, carrying the Jets to point spread success at Baltimore and against Washington.

Look for Clemens to provide the spark that the Jets desperately need, keeping this game close.

Free Pick: Jets +9½

Boston College was a remarkably consistent team during the Tom O’Brien era. In every season this decade prior to 2007, BC won seven or eight regular season games, then played in a relatively minor bowl. The Eagles would beat the teams that they were supposed to beat, performing extremely well as a favorite, but when they stepped up in class, they struggled.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]This year, things broke right early for Boston College under first year head coach Jeff Jagodzinski, and suddenly, BC was ranked as the #2 team in the country! At no point was this team a legitimate Top 10 squad, but a single upset win over Georgia Tech and a Heisman contender at quarterback, Matt Ryan, catapulted this team to a higher ranking than they deserved. BC even survived 58 minutes of terrible football at Virginia Tech before pulling off their second upset of the season thanks to Ryan’s late game heroics, and a lucky bounce going their way on the onside kick.

Boston College has tumbled from #2 in the country, losing each of their last two games. The Eagles defense has worn down, torched for their two worst performances of the season in this two game skid. The offense has become one dimensional, unable to run the football against better defenses. Their confidence is shattered; their momentum snapped. A good (not great) team to begin with, the Eagles might not even be particularly good at this late stage of the campaign.

Said linebacker Mark Herzlich following the loss to Maryland last week, "Being we were No. 2 in the nation to losing two straight, it obviously goes from an extreme high to an extreme low."

Meanwhile, Clemson is the best team in the ACC, and they come into this game with tremendous momentum, on a four game SU and ATS winning streak. The running back duo of James Davis and CJ Spiller is second to none in the conference, while QB Cullen Harper has developed tremendous chemistry with big play wideouts Aaron Kelly and Tyler Grisham.

Clemson’s defense has held each of their last four opponents to 17 points or less. With the right to play in the ACC title game on the line, look for another strong performance out of Tommy Bowden’s club on Saturday night.

Free Pick: Clemson -8½ (-110)

The scoreboard should be lit up frequently when the East Carolina Pirates and Marshall Thundering Herd get together this afternoon.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Conference USA has been a fun conference to watch this year, because there isn’t a single team in the league with a good enough defense to stop the better offenses that they face. That’s why we’ve seen wild shootout after wild shootout in this conference, week after week. The betting marketplace has been rather slow to react to the lack of quality defenses in C-USA, giving us continued value when we bet projected high scoring games over the total.
 
East Carolina has been an offensive juggernaut under Skip Holtz this season. Last year, the Pirates earned their first bowl bid since 2001 despite a sluggish offense that produced only 21 points per game. Their season high in points scored was 38 in a victory over SMU. In 2007, with a completely rebuilt attack following the graduation losses of all of their best skill position weapons, East Carolina is going nuts! In their last five conference games, the Pirates have scored 37, 52, 45, 41 and 56 points.

The quarterback combination of Rob Kass and Patrick Pinkney keeps opposing defenses off balance. Senior running back Chris Johnson gained 301 yards on the ground last week against Memphis. Star receivers Dwayne Harris and Jamar Bryant have picked up the slack left by Aundrae Allison’s offseason departure to the NFL. Facing a bad Marshall defense allowing more than 36 points per game, we can expect the Pirates offensive onslaught to continue.

However, East Carolina also has all kinds of defensive weaknesses, particularly against the pass. The Pirates allowed 416 net passing yards and 40 points to Memphis last week. The Pirates allowed 42 in their previous road game at UTEP, and 35 and 48 points respectively in the two road tilts prior to that. Their defensive weakness against the pass is a very bad fit against the Thundering Herd’s one man attack.

Marshall is a very bad football team, but senior quarterback Bernie Morris has been a one man wrecking crew for opposing defenders, with a big arm and the ability to scramble out of trouble in the pocket. Big play receivers Cody Slate and the appropriately named Darius Passmore have the speed to give the Pirate secondary trouble all afternoon.

Expect yet another C-USA shootout that flies well Over the total.

Free Pick: East Carolina, Marshall Over 65½

The Cleveland Browns are a mess defensively, and with an extra week to prepare, look for the Seattle Seahawks to take full advantage today.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner] The Browns have allowed a 100-yard rusher six times in their first seven games, and their pass rush is non-existent, sacking the opposing quarterbacks only seven times all year. As a result, their secondary has been torched repeatedly, ranking 31th in the NFL against the pass. Even Miami’s Cleo Lemon, making only his second career start, had six completions of longer than 15 yards against this defense, as the Dolphins scored a season high 31 points against this Browns ‘D’. St Louis enjoyed their best offensive performance in more than a month against the Browns defense last week, and things aren’t likely to get better for Romeo Crennell’s stop unit this week, after the loss of leading tackler LB D’Qwell Jackson.

Seattle is coming off a bye, and they have a major advantage with quarterback Charlie Frye arriving from Cleveland earlier this season, with intimate knowledge of the Browns playbook. With three losses already and a razor thin lead in the NFC West, this is a crucial game for Seattle’s playoff hopes. Mike Holmgren’s squad is fresh, much healthier than they were before the bye. We’ve seen them win by a big margin on the road already this season, a 20 point victory at San Francisco, and while the Browns were struggling with the Rams last week, Seattle destroyed St Louis 33-6 right before the bye.

Expect Mike Holmgren’s squad to handle Cleveland with relative ease on Sunday.

Free Pick: Seahawks +1

Louisville is a mess right now, plain and simple. The Cardinals were a legitimate national title contender coming into the season. Now, following another disastrous defeat, they are 4-4, looking at an uphill battle just to earn bowl eligibility. And frankly, a trip to the Motor City Bowl or International Bowl or Texas Bowl or Champs Sports Bowl just doesn’t hold the same motivational edge as a trip to a BCS bowl might for a team with championship aspirations.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Louisville’s defense woes have not been solved, and their offense has come back to earth. They’ve been home favorites three times already this year, losing two of those games outright and nearly getting upset by Middle Tennessee State in the third.

In fact, Louisville has lost those three games as home favorites by a combined margin of 89 points, nearly 30 points per game worse than the betting marketplace expected. And the once mighty Cardinals offense has been held to a very modest 27 points per game over the last four weeks.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh turned their season around with a single upset victory, knocking off Cincinnati last Saturday. Running back Larod Stephens-Howling, one of two hundred-yard rushers for the Panthers said, "We knew we had a lot on our shoulders to get this dubya. So we can get out of the hole, one, and then also make a statement that we haven't given up on our season. That let's people know we're still coming out every week to play."

LeSean McCoy, the other running back to gain over 100 yards on the ground for Pitt last Saturday added, "It's big to have two runners over 100 yards. LaRod motivates me all the time. I know how good he is. When he gets the ball, he knows what to do."

Facing a run defense that is allowing a dreadful 5.3 yards per carry this year, look for the Panthers to give Louisville everything they can handle on Saturday. Take Pitt.

Free Pick: Pittsburgh +9½ (-105)

Fresno State was the class program of the WAC for a good portion of Pat Hill’s 11-year tenure as head coach. With #1 overall draft pick David Carr at quarterback, the Bulldogs were a tough out against just about everybody. During a five year span between 2000 and 2004, Fresno won outright against Colorado, Wisconsin, Oregon St, Kansas St and Washington, while hanging well within the spread in games against Oregon, Tennessee, Oklahoma and UCLA.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]In November of 2005, Fresno was 8-1 (the lone loss coming by three points at Oregon), and leading at #1 USC in the fourth quarter. But the Bulldogs blew the fourth quarter lead against the Trojans, and frankly, the program hasn’t been the same since that defeat. Fresno went on to lose their remaining three games of the ’05 season (favored by a combined 45 points in those three games).

Last year, the Bulldogs went 4-8 SU, 2-10 ATS. So far this season, Fresno has a win over I-AA Sacramento State and a particularly unimpressive win over lowly Louisiana Tech (both victories coming at home) to show for the first month of the season.

The Bulldogs have never been able to replace Carr at the QB position. Paul Pinegar had his moments, but he certainly wasn’t an elite level, NFL bound quarterback. Current starter Tom Brandstater is even worse than Pinegar was. Last week, Brandstater’s stat line looked like this: 8-22, 92 yards, 0 touchdowns. Tight end Bear Pascoe has been Brandstater’s only consistent receiving threat. Running backs Ryan Matthews and Lonyae Miller combine to average less than four yards per carry. A defense with only four returning starters has struggled mightily against both solid attacks that they’ve faced this year. And let’s not forget that Fresno St is on a 1-9 SU run on the road, not the type of team worth backing in this price range in a hostile environment.

And it’s surely worth noting that the Bulldogs have lost the turnover battle in each of their first four games, another indicator that the quarterback play here isn’t quite up to par.

Nevada is 12-0 ATS as a home favorite in this current epoch of the Chris Ault era, as apart of a 17-3 overall home record in the last 3+ seasons. Reno is no easy place for opposing teams to visit these days. Since an opening day loss at Nebraska, the Wolfpack offense has been clicking on all cylinders, putting up 110 points in three games, while averaging more than 200 yards per game both on the ground and through the air.

While Nevada QB Nick Graziano is still learning the intricacies of Ault’s unique 'Pistol offense,' he’s certainly got a big arm and plenty of playmakers to throw to. In fact, the Wolfpack have five different receivers that have caught a TD pass of 48 yards or longer, while running back Luke Lippincott is averaging 5.3 yards per carry.

Given Nevada’s track record at home, and Fresno’s limited offensive capabilities, look for the Wolfpack to extend their streak to 13 consecutive pointspread covers as a home favorite on Saturday.

Free Pick: Nevada -3 (-110)

The Sun Belt Conference doesn’t get a lot of national press, and that’s putting it mildly. The relative obscurity of this non-BCS conference offers us a handful of solid betting opportunities each year, as the linesmakers scramble for information every bit as much as the bettors do.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Florida International has the longest current losing streak in college football, losers of 16 straight games. They’ve suffered a pair of ugly road losses against BCS conference competition on the road, losing at Kansas and at Penn State by a combined margin of 114-3. But when we isolate the Golden Panthers results against Sun Belt competition, they look much, much better.

FIU’s last win came against Middle Tennessee State, a 35-31 season-ender in 2005. Last year, they opened up the season with a trip to Murfreesboro and lost 7-6 thanks to a missed extra point. In fact, FIU has been able to hang tough repeatedly during this losing streak, in large part thanks to a rock solid defense by Sun Belt standards. They’ve lost to South Florida by one, Bowling Green by five, and North Texas by three during this current skid.

Two weeks ago, the Panthers held Miami to 23 points. Three weeks ago, they held Maryland to 26 points and under 300 yards of total offense. Again, judging by their recent results against the Blue Raiders, the talent differential between these two programs is not all that great.

Middle Tennessee enters this game with the same 0-4 record as their counterparts on the opposing sideline. They’ve lost their starting quarterback to injury, leaving frosh Dwight Dasher as one of four freshman starting for the Blue Raiders right now. This team has been devastated by injuries, and Sun Belt teams aren’t known for their extensive depth. The Blue Raiders are just 2-6 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2+ seasons, and they just lost at home to a Western Kentucky team still making the transition from I-AA to I-A football.

Middle Tennessee is going to struggle to win this game outright, let alone to win it by a double digit margin.  FIU is a live underdog on Saturday night. Take Florida International.

Free Pick: Florida International +9½ (-108)