Dr. Bob

Houston should have no problem out-gaining the Jaguars in this game, but Sage Rosenfels is probably going to have to keep his interception count to two or less to win by more than a field goal.

Rosenfels has averaged an impressive 7.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow just 6.0 yppp to an average QB), but he’s also thrown a not so impressive 9 interceptions on just 148 passes thrown. Rosenfels is not likely to get picked off at that high a rate going forward but his horrendous 5.2% career interception rate still suggests an average of 1.6 picks per game going forward. Houston’s offense will certainly move the ball, as the Texans have averaged 6.0 yards per play this season and are 1.0 yppl better than average with Rosenfels at quarterback.

Jacksonville has allowed 5.6 yppl this season (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and the Jaguars gave up 6.3 yppl at home to the Texans in their 30-27 week 3 victory. Houston’s defense is 0.6 yppl worse than average while the Jaguars are 0.4 yppl worse than average on offense, so the Jags don’t have much of an edge when they have the ball. They do have an advantage in keeping the ball, however, as quarterback David Garrard is on pace to become the NFL’s all time leader in lowest career interception percentage (1.96%) once he has enough passes to qualify.

The Jaguars are projected to be +0.8 in turnover margin, but my math still favors Houston by 6½ points due to their ability to move the football.

Free Pick: Texans -3½ (-105)

© Copyright 2008. Reprinted with permission of the author.

These two teams are equally bad defensively, but Houston is likely to outgain the Browns in this game, as their attack averages 6.0 yards per play and rates at 0.9 yppl better than average after adjusting for strength of opposing defenses.

Cleveland, meanwhile, has averaged just 5.0 yppl and rate at 0.2 yppl worse than average. Cleveland’s offense has performed better in Brady Quinn’s two starts (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl), but that has more to do with the rushing number (actually one 72 yard run by backup RB Harrison) than it does with Quinn, who has actually been a bit worse than former starter Derek Anderson from a compensated yards per pass play perspective.

Quinn, however, has not thrown an interception in two starts and that will be a key in this game, as Houston’s Sage Rosenfels has thrown seven interceptions in 3½ games this season and has a career interception rate of 5.1%. Cleveland is likely to make up for the difference in total yards with a turnover advantage, but my math model favors the Browns by only 1 point even with a 1.3 projected turnover advantage.

Cleveland applies to a negative 36-99-1 ATS situation that is based on their bad defense (bad defensive teams are bad as favorites) and that angle applies as long as the Browns are favored by 3 points or more. Houston should cover the spread in this game if they have a -2 in turnover margin or better and that is likely to be the case.

Predicted Score: Houston-27 Cleveland-26

Free Pick: Texans +3 (-110)

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Tony Romo is back for the Cowboys, but the Redskins remain an underrated team. Washington has out-gained their opponents 5.6 yards per play to 4.8 yppl this season and they rate at 0.2 yppl better than average offensively (0.1 yppl worse than average without star RB Clinton Portis) and 0.8 yppl better than average defensively while playing mostly error free football (just eight turnovers in nine games).

Dallas is 1.5 yppl better than average in six games with Tony Romo at quarterback, so they do have an edge over Washington’s stout defense if Romo plays at his normal level, and the Cowboys’ defense (0.4 yppl better than average) has an edge on Washington’s offense.

Despite Dallas being a better team from the line of scrimmage, the Redskins are favored by my math model by half a point on the basis of an edge in projected turnovers, special teams, and the home field advantage. Washington also applies to a decent 79-31-2 ATS statistical profile indicator and the Redskins are the percentage play in this game.

Predicted Score: Washington-23 Dallas-20

Free Pick: Redskins +1½ (-110)

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Alabama may be the No. 1 ranked team in the polls and the BCS standings, but the Crimson Tide are not the top team in the nation.

'Bama has a very strong defense that has allowed just 4.2 yppl (to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team), but that unit is not that much better than an LSU attack that is 1.1 yppl better than average with Jerrett Lee at quarterback (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 4.9 yppl against an average team). Lee’s problem has been interceptions (10 on just 189 pass attempts). Alabama also has only a very slight edge on LSU when the Tide have the ball, as Bama rates at 0.6 yppl better than average offensively (5.8 against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl) and the Tigers are 0.5 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team).

Alabama does have a 3-point edge in projected turnovers, but the Tigers are better on special teams and are at home. My math model favors LSU by 1½ points and Alabama applies to a negative 16-59-1 ATS situation that plays against unbeaten teams. My problem with this game is LSU’s 0-12 ATS mark in conference home games following a victory under coach Les Miles, but I’ll still favor LSU plus the points based on the math and the situation going against Alabama.

Prediction: LSU-24 Alabama-23

Free Pick: LSU +3 (-110)

Chicago would have been a very good bet here if Kyle Orton were not injured, but I still like the Bears even with Rex Grossman at the controls.

Orton is having a very good season, averaging 6.6 yards per pass play (against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) with just four interceptions in 7½ games and zero picks in six games this season. Orton was injured last week and former starter Grossman stepped in to guide the Bears’ comeback win over the Lions in spite of Grossman, who completed just 8 of 18 passes for 3.2 yards per pass play with an interception.

Grossman’s 54.1% career completion percentage and 3.7% interception rate calculate to a little more than 4 points per game worse than Orton’s numbers and I rate the Bears’ attack at 0.5 yards per play worse than average with Grossman at quarterback.

Tennessee’s defense is 0.7 yppl better than average, so I don’t expect much from the Bears’ attack in this game. However, Tennessee doesn’t figure to light up the scoreboard either as the Titans are 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) while the Bears are 0.3 yppl better than average defensively. Tennessee’s overall advantage from the line of scrimmage is almost made up for Chicago’s home field advantage and the Bears have better special teams. Grossman’s projected interceptions hurt the cause a bit, but my math model picks this game even.

Chicago applies to a decent 55-25 ATS situation and the Bears are certainly the side to be on, but I just don’t trust Grossman enough to play the Bears as a Best Bet and I have another set of ratings that favor Tennessee by 5 points with Grossman at quarterback. I’ll lean with Chicago plus the points.

Prediction: Chicago-17 Tennessee-16

Free Pick: Bears +3 (-110)

© Copyright 2008. Reprinted with permission of the author.

Cleveland has rebounded from three losses to start the season by winning three of their last four games, and the Browns have a pretty good chance to get to .500 in this one.

Baltimore has been a better than average team through their first seven games, averaging 4.7 yppl while allowing just 4.4 yppl to an average schedule, but the Ravens haven’t been as good in pass defense since losing starting CB Samari Rolle and FS Dawan Landry. Baltimore allowed just 183 total passing yards and 2.8 yards per pass play in the first two games of the season with their great secondary intact (including a week 3 win against the Browns), but the Ravens have allowed 6.6 yppp in five games without Rolle and Landry (to quarterbacks that would average 6.2 yppp against an average team) so Browns’ Derek Anderson should have much more success throwing the ball in this game than he did in Week 2.

The Ravens are still great against the run, but my math model projects 217 net yards passing for the Browns and 288 total yards. That will probably be good enough to win this game against a bad Ravens’ attack that I rate at 0.6 yards per play worse than average. Cleveland’s defense has played decently since allowing 488 yards at 7.9 yppl in their opening loss to Dallas (they’ve allowed 17 points or less in four consecutive games) and that unit yielded just 4.5 yppl in their 10-28 loss to the Ravens) and my math model favors the Browns by 2½ points in this game.

Prediction: Cleveland-20 Baltimore-17

Free Pick: Browns -1 (-110)

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Northwestern is without star running back Tyrell Sutton, who is out for the season, and quarterback C.J. Bacher, and that does not bode well for the Wildcats.

Sutton has accumulated 776 rushing yards at 5.0 ypr and the rushing numbers will fall with Omar Conteh (223 at just 3.7 ypr) taking his place. Replacing Bacher is Mike Kafka, who was the starting quarterback at the beginning of the 2006 season before being replaced. Kafka was horrible throwing the ball that season, averaging just 4.6 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback, but he’s run for 326 yards on 48 rushing plays (6.8 yprp) in his career and should enhance the rushing numbers (but the net of losing Sutton and adding Kafka’s numbers is negative).

My math model favors Minnesota by 9½ points in this game and the 138-69-8 ATS situation that applies to the Golden Gophers is stronger than the 47-22 ATS situation that applies to Northwestern. I like Minnesota in this game.

Prediction: Gophers-28 Wildcats-17

Free Pick: Minnesota -7 (-110)

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I went against the Colts last week for a 3-Star Best Bet winner on Green Bay, and Indy still appears to be overrated.

The Colts have been just 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively this season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and they are only 0.2 yppl better than average if I take out Peyton Manning’s rusty performance in the opener against Chicago (he missed all of training camp and the preseason and was obviously rusty).

Tennessee’s defense is good against the run and the pass, and the Titans rate at 0.8 yppl better than average defensively overall (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team), so I don’t expect the Colts to have much success in this game. The Titans’ offense has been a bit sluggish, rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average and they are at a slight disadvantage against a Colts’ stop unit that is just average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team).

Tennessee is clearly the better team and my math model favors the Titans by 8 points in this game. There are very strong situations favoring both sides in this game, so I’ll stick with the math and lean with the Titans minus the points.

Prediction: Tennessee-23 Indianapolis-16

Free Pick: Titans -4 (-110)

© Copyright 2008. Reprinted with permission of the author.

This game is being played in London and should be a much more entertaining contest than last year’s low scoring, muddy affair between the Giants and the winless Dolphins.

Both of these teams are equally great offensively, as the Saints have averaged 6.3 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and the Chargers have averaged 6.1 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), but the Saints have been better defensively so far this season.

New Orleans was shaky defensively the first three games of the season but they’ve tightened up the last four games and now rate at average for the season on defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team). The Chargers, meanwhile, are coming off a poor defensive game in Buffalo (6.4 yppl allowed) and they’ve given up 5.5 yppl for the season (against teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team).

The loss of Reggie Bush doesn’t hurt the Saints offense at all, but he’s been worth almost three points per game with his punt returns, three of which have gone for touchdowns, and San Diego now has the special teams edge in this game with New Orleans continuing to suffer with their place kicking.

My math model favors New Orleans by ½ a point, so I like the Saints plus the points in this one and I'll favor the Over.

Prediction: New Orleans-27 San Diego-26

Free Pick: Saints +3 / Over 45

© Copyright 2008. Reprinted with permission of the author.

Minnesota is a better than average team from the line of scrimmage, but their special teams are the worst in the NFL and could cost them in this game against Devin Hester and the Chicago Bears.

The Vikings rate at just 0.1 yards per play worse than average offensively with Gus Frerotte at quarterback and they are 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team. However, the Vikings have allowed a ridiculous 18 yards per punt return and 3 of those punts have been returned for touchdowns. That’s not a good omen going into a game kicking the ball to Hester (if they choose to kick it to him).

Chicago’s season numbers are nearly identical to those of Minnesota, as the Bears have been 0.2 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.6 yppl better than average defensively. However, the loss of starting CB Nathan Vasher a few weeks ago has hurt the secondary and the other starting CB Charles Tillman injured his shoulder in the second quarter of last week’s loss to Atlanta. Backup CB Trumaine McBride and safety Danieal Manning also were injured in that game and Matt Ryan average over 10 yards per pass play. Vasher and Tillman are both listed as questionable and the Bears would be worse than average against the pass without them (and about average if one of them played), so the Vikings would have a chance to move the ball through the air.

My math model projects Minnesota with a 4.8 yppl to 4.6 yppl advantage in this game if Chicago has one of their two starting cornerbacks in the game and Minnesota should win if their special teams don’t hurt them. However, that is not likely and I’ll call for a narrow Bear’s victory and a Vikings’ spread win on the basis of a 227-112-9 ATS statistical indicator that applies to Minnesota. Unfortunately, that angle is just 11-11-2 ATS if the other team is a division rival with revenge, which is the case here. I’ll still lean with the Vikings and hope Hester doesn’t take back a kick for a touchdown.

Prediction: Chicago-19 Minnesota-18

Free Pick: Vikings +3½ (-105)

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Dallas is clearly one of the Top 3 teams in the NFL (along with the Giants and Redskins), but the Cowboys apply to a negative 22-57-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation this week while Arizona applies to a solid 54-20-5 ATS home underdog momentum situation.

Those angles are 8-1 ATS for the home dog when both apply to the same game and Arizona is certainly capable of competing in this game. However, the absence of star WR Anquan Boldin, who has 366 yards on 35 passes thrown to him, is tough to overcome even with Larry Fitzgerald still available for Kurt Warner to throw passes to. The problem is that teams can now simply double-cover Fitzgerald without having to worry about Boldin.

Arizona has been 1.5 yards per pass play better than average for the season (7.2 yppp against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average team), but the Cardinals were just 0.1 yppp better than average last week against Buffalo without Boldin (6.1 yppp against a Bills defense that would allow 6.0 yppp on the road to an average team).

Arizona’s defense also hasn’t been as good without sack specialist Bertrand Berry the last two games (he had three sacks in the first three games) and my math model favors Dallas by eight points after adjusting for Boldin and Berry. I’ll still lean with Arizona based on the strong technical support.

Prediction: Dallas-27 Arizona-25

Free Pick: Cardinals +5 (-110)

© Copyright 2008. Reprinted with permission of the author.

East Carolina started the season with upset wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia, but the Pirates defense has been horrible since losing star LB Quentin Cotton in their Game 3 win over Tulane.

East Carolina was 0.6 yards per play better than average defensively in their first three games, but the Pirates have allowed 6.5 yppl in two games without Cotton to NC State and Houston attacks that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team. ECU is probably not going to be as bad as that going forward, but they are certainly worse than their mediocre season numbers (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl).

Virginia is coming off a confidence building 31-0 win over Maryland and the Cavaliers’ attack, while 0.9 yppl worse than average offensively, should have some success in this game now that star running back Cedric Peerman appears to finally be healthy (he ran for 110 yards on 17 carries against Maryland after running the ball just 20 times total in the first 4 games). Their defense looked horrible in their opener against USC (7.6 yppl and 52 points allowed), but the Cavaliers actually are better than average defensively (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defensive team) and East Carolina is actually below average offensively (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team).

Virginia is actually pretty close to ECU in terms of compensated yards per play numbers and the Cavs have better special teams and are at home, where they are 27-12 ATS under Al Groh when not favored by more than 23 points. I’m going to call for an upset, as my math slightly favors Virginia in this game.

Prediction: Virginia-22 East Carolina-21

Free Pick: Virginia +6½ (-110)

Two of the best quarterbacks in the nation square off in this game, as Texas’ Colt McCoy and Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford are both having All-American seasons.

McCoy has averaged 9.3 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback) and he’s added a running dimension to his game this season, rushing for 346 yards on just 43 rushing plays. Bradford doesn’t need to run given how good he is when he sits in the pocket (11.0 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) and he should light up a questionable Texas secondary if he’s given enough time to throw.

The Longhorns are actually better than average in pass defense (4.9 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppp against an average team) because they averaged 3.6 sacks per game, but Bradford has been sacked only 15 times in 19 games in his career so he should get enough protection to find open receivers downfield. Bradford was actually pressured by TCU a couple of week ago, getting sacked 3 times, but he still averaged 10.2 yppp in that game against a very good Horned Frogs defense that would allow just 5.0 yppp on the road to an average quarterback.

Overall, Oklahoma’s offense has been 1.7 yards per play better than average when Bradford is in the game (7.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) while the Texas defense is 0.5 yppl better than average. The Texas offense isn’t quite as good, as the Longhorns have averaged 6.9 yppl when McCoy is under center – against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. Oklahoma is also better defensively than Texas is, as the Sooners have allowed 4.4 yppl in four games against Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team.

Oklahoma has a clear advantage from the line of scrimmage in this game, but the Sooners have been horrible in special teams while Texas has been good in that area. The Sooners will probably win by double-digits if their special team play doesn’t kill them, but I’ll call for this one to be right around the number. 
 
Prediction: Oklahoma-33 Texas-27

The Indianapolis Colts are not the same team as recent seasons, and this contest vs. the Houston Texans is hardly a walkover.

Peyton Manning missed all of training camp and the pre-season, and he hasn’t looked right the first three games of this season while averaging just 6.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 YPP to an average quarterback).

The bye week should help Manning work out the kinks and I still rate the Colts’ pass attack among the league’s best, but Indy’s rushing attack has been bad (3.6 yards per rush) and Houston should be pretty fired up to be playing a game at home after starting the season with three road losses (home dogs or picks are 7-4 ATS at home after 3 consecutive road losses).

I had high expectations for the Texans this season and I used them last week for a Best Bet winner in their 27-30 overtime loss as a seven-point dog. Houston’s offense finally played up to their potential last week, averaging 6.3 yards per play against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and that unit should perform well against a Colts’ defense that has had a tendency to struggle without reigning NFL Defensive MVP Bob Sanders in the lineup (he’s out 4 to 6 weeks with an injured ankle).

The Colts gave up 403 yards at 5.8 YPP to the Jaguars in their first game without Sanders, which is a worse than average performance, and I think the Texans will move the ball pretty well in this game. Houston’s defense hasn’t looked good this season, allowing 5.8 YPP to teams that would combine to average 5.2 YPP against an average team, so Manning could bust out with a good game if the bye week served to get his timing back.

My ratings favor Houston by one point, so I’ll lean with the Texans plus the points.

Free Pick: Texans +3 (-110)

© Copyright 2008. Reprinted with permission of the author.

I was surprised that Cal was favored by so many points, but it’s not so surprising now that I’ve taken a look at the numbers.

Arizona State is a very good offensive team that has averaged 6.5 yards per play with quarterback Rudy Carpenter in the game (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team), but Carpenter was slowed by a good Georgia defense in Week 4 (ASU averaged just 3.9 yppl) and the Bears’ defense has been even better than Georgia’s stop unit. Cal has yielded just 3.4 yards per rushing play, 5.0 yards per pass play, and 4.2 yppl in four games against teams that would combine to average 4.8 yprp, 6.0 yppp, and 5.3 yppl against an average team.

The Bears defense even played well in the games in which their opponents scored a lot of points, as they held Michigan State to just 5.1 yppl (the defense only gave up 17 of those 31 points) and shut down shut down one of the nation’s top running backs in Jevon Ringer, who had just 81 yards on 27 carries in that game. The 35 points allowed in Cal’s loss to Maryland is also misleading given that the Terrapins averaged only 4.8 yppl – well below the 6.5 yppl that Maryland would average at home against an average defensive team. As good as Arizona State’s offense has been, Cal’s defense has been better.

The Bears’ offense has also been good, averaging 6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team, and that unit has the advantage over a good Sun Devils’ stop unit that is 0.5 yppl better than average. Cal will be without star back Jahvid Best, who has run for 421 yards at 7.1 ypr while catching 14 passes for 157 yards (the 11.2 ypc is very good for a running back). Best’s 7.1 ypr is very impressive, but backup Shane Vereen has 279 rushing yards and has averaged 8.0 ypr and all the Cal backs other than Best combine to average 7.3 ypr – so replacing Best’s 7.1 ypr doesn’t appear to be that tough. What will be tough is replacing his 11.2 yards per catch, as Vereen and #3 back Tracy Slocum combine for 12 catches for only 44 yards.

The quarterback situation could get a boost this week if Nate Longshore continues to get an opportunity to play. Longshore, a former starter who struggled the second half of last season while playing on an injured ankle, has been much better than starter Kevin Riley (8.3 yards per pass attempt for Longshore and 6.7 yards per attempt for Riley). Longshore tends to throw more interceptions, but he also completes more passes down the field and I think Cal’s offense would be better with Longshore at the controls again. Coach Jeff Tedford has split the first team snaps in practice this week, but has not named a starter.

After adjusting for Best not being a part of the Cal pass attack my math model favors the Bears by exactly 9 points – so the line is right on. I’ll lean with Cal on the basis of a solid 328-181-12 ATS statistical matchup indicator and Tedford’s 17-2-1 ATS record as a favorite from 3 to 10½ points.

Prediction: California-34 Arizona St.-21

Free Pick: California -9 (-110)

© Copyright 2008. Reprinted with permission of the author.

Louisville struggled offensively in their first two games, but it appears as if quarterback Hunter Cantwell is starting to adjust to his new receiving corps, as he averaged 7.4 yards per pass play in last week’s win over Kansas State.

Louisville has actually improved every game offensively since being held to just 2.9 yards per play and zero offensive points in their 2-27 opening loss to Kentucky. Cantwell is still well below average throwing the ball for the season (5.5 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback), but he has proven the past three years that he can throw the ball (8.0 yppp on 168 pass plays) – so the Cardinals could be very good offensively if the new group of receivers continue to improve (they run the ball very well already).

Connecticut’s defense, averaging 3.5 sacks (11 total sacks in two games with star DE Lindsey Wittin playing – he has four of them), should put some pressure on Cantwell in this game and the Huskies are good against the pass (4.6 yppp allowed).  But the Huskies are just mediocre defending the run, so Louisville should move the ball at a decent clip.

The reason I like the Cardinals in this game is their much improved defense that’s limiting opponents to just 2.4 yards per rushing play (those opponents would combine to average 4.3 yprp against an average defense). Connecticut is a running team (67% running plays) that has averaged 6.0 yprp in 4 games this season (against teams that would allow 5.2 yprp), so the key to this game is stopping the Huskies’ rushing attack – which it appears Louisville can do. My math favors Louisville by 6 points, so I’ll lean with the Cardinals minus the points.

Prediction: Louisville-27 Connecticut-21

Free Pick: Louisville -3½ (-103)

© Copyright 2008. Reprinted with permission of the author

As bad as Kansas City has been so far this season, it is still not wise to lay more than a touchdown on the road in the NFL, especially against teams with horrible records (more reason for the road favorite to letdown). Winless home underdogs of more than seven points are 45-24-2 ATS since 1980 and Kansas City also applies to an 84-40-3 ATS home underdog situation that plays on bad teams.

Denver, meanwhile, applies to a very negative 27-72-1 ATS road letdown situation following two high-scoring close victories over San Diego and New Orleans. The Broncos are also just 5-21 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points following a win in the post-John Elway era.

Kansas City also gets a lift offensively with Damon Huard back at quarterback replacing Tyler Thigpen, who goes down on the list of all-time worst starting quarterbacks. Thigpen completed just 41% of his passes for a horrendous 3.2 yards per pass play and Huard should be a couple of yards per pass play better than that given his career 5.5 yppp average, which is also his average since the beginning of last season. Huard also has a history of taking care of the football, as evidenced by his career 2.7% interception percentage (3.2% is about average and Thigpen threw 4 picks on 69 passes (5.8%)).

Denver’s defense has been horrible so far, as the Broncos have allowed 7.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team. The Chiefs are capable of scoring a decent number of points with Huard at quarterback but the Chiefs’ defense has allowed 6.1 yppl to three mediocre or bad offensive teams (NE, Oak, Atl) and the Broncos have been lighting it up offensively (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team).

My ratings favor Denver by 10½ points and using this year’s games only would favor the Broncos by 11½ points (after adjusting for Huard at quarterback for KC). The lack of line value will keep me from making the Chiefs a best bet, but I clearly lean with the big home dog here and I’d consider Kansas City a strong opinion at +10 points or more.

Prediction: Denver-28 Kansas City-23

Free Pick: Chiefs +10 or more

© Copyright 2008. Reprinted with permission of the author.

The Chargers have lost each of their first two games in the final minute, but they should notch their first of many wins this week against the Jets.

San Diego’s offense is better than ever with Philip Rivers averaging an impressive 9.5 yards per pass play in leading an attack that has averaged 7.3 yards per play against the Panthers and Broncos. The Jets have been good defensively, allowing 4.4 yppl to the Dolphins and Patriots, but I don’t expect them to hold down the Chargers tonight.

New York’s offense hasn’t exactly been the aerial display that many expected (I didn’t) when the Jets signed Brett Favre, as the Jets have averaged a modest 5.3 yppl in their first two games. San Diego’s defense doesn’t figure to be nearly as strong without star LB Shawne Merriman, who decided to have surgery on his ailing knee after being ineffective in week 1. The Chargers have allowed 6.0 yppl to Carolina and Denver, but I still rate that unit as a bit better than average.

Overall my ratings favor San Diego by 10 points and there are situations favoring both sides in this game. I’ll lean slightly with the Chargers to get their first victory.

Prediction: San Diego-27, New York-17

Free Pick: Chargers -8½ (-110)

© Copyright 2008. Reprinted with permission of the author.

Pittsburgh players and coaches have indicated that they’ll play this as a pretty normal game rather than resting their starters before the playoffs.

However, Ben Roethlisberger will not play this game in order to lessen his chances of getting injured. Charlie Batch is a more than capable backup and new top back Najeh Davenport (5.0 ypr this season and 4.7 ypr in his career) could be an upgrade over injured starter Willie Parker (4.1 ypr this season).

Baltimore will go with Troy Smith at quarterback for a second straight start and Smith has been better than the Ravens’ other two quarterbacks in his limited duty so far this season. Smith has averaged 5.4 yards per pass play on 50 pass plays against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback and I see no reason why Smith can’t continue to top the bad numbers of Steve McNair and Kyle Boller. Posting good numbers against Pittsburgh’s defense, however, is not likely since the Steelers have the best pass defense in the league this year. Baltimore will struggle running the ball too with top back Willis McGahee injured.

My math model favors Pittsburgh by 6½ points and they’re talking like they want to beat up on their hated division rival and perhaps gain the #3 seed in the AFC playoffs in the process (although they’d also need the Chargers to lose to Oakland). Prediction: Pittsburgh-21, Balitmore-14

Free Pick: Steelers -3 (-110)

© Copyright 2007. Reprinted with permission of the author.

New Orleans needs to win this game to have any hope of reaching the playoffs (they also need Washington and Minnesota to lose), but Chicago is still playing hard and the Saints still don’t have a defense.

New Orleans is a very good offensive team and Chicago is a bit below average defensively, but the Saints have a horrible defense that can’t stop the pass. New Orleans has allowed 7.2 yards per pass play to a schedule of opposing quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.5 yppp against an average defensive team. The Saints allowed Jacksonville’s horrible backup quarterback Quinn Gray throw for well over 300 yards at 9.8 yppp and also allowed Tampa Bay backup Luke McCown to average 7.4 yppp.

Chicago’s Kyle Orton has averaged only 4.3 yppp in his career, but he’s improved a bit since being a rookie starter in 2005 (5.2 yppp as a starter the last two weeks) and my math model projects a solid 6.3 yppp for Orton against the Saints’ horrible defense and that’s without adjusting for the loss of the Saints’ top CB Mike McKenzie, who was put on injured reserve after being hurt last week.

New Orleans is likely to out-gain the Bears in this game, but Chicago has a huge edge in special teams and my math model favors the Bears by one point. Chicago applies to a 65-29 ATS situation and I believe they’ll play hard in their finale in front of their fans. Prediction: Chicago-23, New Orleans-20

Free Pick: Bears +1½ (-105)

© Copyright 2007. Reprinted with permission of the author.

The Jets are 4-2 ATS in their last six games and should be 5-1 ATS (they gave up a spread-covering TD to Cleveland when the Browns were trying to run out the clock) in those games.

Tennessee is in a must-win situation this week, but that’s why the line is so high. The oddsmakers know that amateurs like to bet on teams in must-win situations so they adjust the line accordingly. However, teams in must-win sistuations are only 48-75-4 ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season when facing a team that is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

Tennessee hasn’t been able to stop the run since run-stuffing DT Albert Haynesworth injured his hamstring. Haynesworth missed a few games and then came back but he hasn’t been the same and may not play this week. Tennessee was 0.6 ypr better than average defending the run in their first eight games but the Titans have allowed 4.8 ypr in their last 6 games to teams that would average 4.2 ypr against an average team.

The Jets have actually been the better team over the last six weeks and my math model favors Tennessee by only 3½ points. I like the Jets.  Final Score: Tennessee-21, New York-17

Free Pick: Jets +8½ (-120)

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The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the spread in five consecutive games, while the Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a loss and are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games.

However, the Jaguars apply to a very negative 18-55 ATS road letdown situation while Pittsburgh applies to a 163-96-8 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggest that they have the characteristics of a team that should cover at home against other good teams. That certainly appears to be the case given that Pittsburgh is 7-0 straight up at home and 5-0 ATS as a home favorite of less than 10 points this year. The technical analysis favoring Pittsburgh gives the Steelers a 60.7 percent chance of covering at a fair line (based on the past predictability of my angles and the statistical significance of the ones that apply to this game). However, my math model suggests that the fair line on this game should be Pittsburgh by only 2 ½ points and I’m not willing to lay 3½ points with the Steelers in a Best Bet since three is such a key number.

I would consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at -3 (at -1.20 odds or less) and I’d take Pittsburgh in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 at -1.10 odds or better

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Atlanta coach Bobby Petrino resigned this week to take the job at Arkansas and it’s tough to imagine things getting any worse for the Falcons. Most players on the Falcons could care less about losing Petrino, whose heavy doses of discipline didn’t play very well in the NFL. I’ll assume losing their coach will have no negative affect on the Falcons this week and it could actually lighten the mood of the team a bit.

Tampa Bay gets Jeff Garcia back at quarterback this week after missing most of the last three weeks, and it looks like Chris Redman will get another start at quarterback for the Falcons. Redman has put up better looking stats than Joey Harrington did (6.6 yards per pass play is good), but doing so against the Rams and mostly against the Saints’ horrible pass defense diminishes those good numbers significantly since an average quarterback would average 7.6 yppp throwing 43 passes at the Saints and 25 passes at the Rams’ defense. Redman’s compensated numbers are a bit better than Harrington’s, but his career 5.1 yppp average is no better than the team’s compensated average, so I won’t make any adjustments for Redman at this point.

My math model favors the Bucs by 14½ points with Garcia at quarterback for Tampa and Redman at quarterback for the Falcons. Tampa Bay is coming off a loss last week and Jon Gruden’s teams are 25-11-2 ATS as a favorite or pick after a loss, but the Buccaneers apply to a negative 30-94-1 ATS situation that is stronger than the team trend. I’ll lean with Atlanta plus the points. Tampa Bay-24, Atlanta-14

Free Pick: Falcons +13½ (-110)

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I mentioned a few weeks ago that the lines on the Patriots’ games were becoming too high and now, after going 1-3 ATS in their last four games, the Pats actually have the line value slightly in their favor.

This game opened with New England as a 13-point favorite but the line has come down to -10½ points, which is a bit lower than what it should be. The Steelers do have the NFL’s best defense, but the Patriots are good enough to move the ball at a good rate against any defense.

Pittsburgh’s offense is just mediocre (even after adjusting for the return of WR Santonio Holmes) and the Steelers won’t have an easy time scoring against a good Patriots’ defense that should play with more intensity this week after letting up a bit in recent narrow wins over the Eagles and Ravens. My math model favors New England by 11 points, but the Pats have outplayed their math this year and I think a fair line for this game is 13 points.

New England is 37-17-3 ATS at home with Tom Brady at quarterback and I’ll lean with the Pats to play with more intensity than they have in recent weeks.  Final Score: New England-27, Pittsburgh-14

Free Pick: Patriots -10½ (-110)

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Baltimore is a much better team with cornerbacks Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister both playing and that was pretty evident by their defensive effort in last week’s near upset of the Patriots.

Rolle and McAlister have both missed games this season and have only played together four times. In those four games the Ravens have allowed just 5.5 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average defensive team. That is in sharp contrast to the eight games in which either Rolle or McAlister were out, which results in allowing 7.2 yppp to quarterbacks that would average 6.3 yppp against an average team. McAlister is expected to play again this week and the Ravens’ defense should limit the Colts’ attack if he does play.

Peyton Manning hasn’t been nearly as good throwing the ball without favorite target Marvin Harrison, as he’s averaged a modest 6.7 yppp without Harrison (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB) compared to about 8 yppp with Harrison in the lineup. The Colts are only 0.2 yards per play better than average offensively without Harrison and Baltimore goes from being 0.4 yppl better than average to 0.9 yppl better than average defensively with McAlister in the lineup, which is about what they were last season.

Kyle Boller is an upgrade over Steve McNair at quarterback, but the Ravens are still 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively while the Colts are 0.6 yppl better than average defensively. The Colts aren’t that much better from the line of scrimmage than the Ravens if McAlister is playing and my math model favors Indy by just 1½ points in this game and the math would only favor the Colts by 4½ points without making any adjustment for McAlister. While the line value is clearly on the side of Baltimore, I am a bit concerned about an emotional letdown this week from the Ravens after their emotional effort in a crushing loss to the Patriots.

For that reason, I’ll only consider Baltimore as a Strong Opinion in this game, but I would take the Ravens in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more (-1.15 odds or better). Final Score: Indianapolis-19, Baltimore-16

Free Pick: Ravens +10 (-115)

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Missouri’s only loss all season was at Oklahoma and the Sooners may keep the Tigers out of the National Championship game. Missouri is a good team, but they are far from being the best team in the nation and they aren’t even the best team in their conference.

The Tigers are good offensively, rating at 1.0 yards per play better than average (6.4 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but Mizzou is just 0.4 yppl better than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team). The Sooners, meanwhile, have been 1.2 yppl better than average on offense (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl) and 0.7 yppl better than average defensively (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team).

Oklahoma isn’t as good as their season stats since their defense hasn’t been quite as good without DE Auston English the last four games (although English may play this week) and the Sooners’ offense is 0.1 yppl worse without RB DeMarco Murray and his 6.0 ypr. Also, the great numbers of quarterback Sam Bradford (8.9 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback) aren’t as good if you exclude the early season games he ran up his numbers against bad defensive teams North Texas, Utah State, and Tulsa.

Still, the Sooners’ attack is still 0.8 yppl better than average after adjusting for those factors. Oklahoma out-gained Missouri 5.9 yppl to 5.3 yppl in Norman but my math model projects only a 0.2 yppl advantage in this game. Where Oklahoma has an advantage in this game is in special teams and my math model favors the Sooners by 4½ points.  Oklahoma-32, Missouri-28

Free Pick: Oklahoma -3 (-105)

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Detroit has come back to earth with three straight losses and I don’t see that slide ending Sunday in Minnesota.

The Vikings had three interception return touchdowns in last week’s upset win at New York but they also out-gained the Giants 4.7 yards per play to 4.4 yppl. Minnesota will get rookie star RB Adrian Peterson (1081 yards at 6.4 yards per carry!) back this week, but I suspect he’ll split carries with Chester Taylor at first.

Minnesota has averaged a robust 5.7 yppl for the season (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack) but that attack isn’t quite as good with Peterson splitting carries and Detroit defends the run well (3.9 ypr allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.3 ypr against an average team). Tarvaris Jackson is going to need to come up with some plays against a sub-par Lions’ secondary, but he should do enough for the Vikings to win this game.

Detroit’s offense a bit better than average and their pass-heavy attack matches up well against a Minnesota defense that is impossible to run against and just average defending the pass (6.4 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average team). After adjusting for Peterson getting about half the carries (could be more, could be less) my math favors the Vikings by 6 points.

There are situations favoring both sides in this game (although the stronger angles favor Minnesota) and I’ll lean with the Vikings minus the points.  Minnesota-25, Detroit-18

Free Pick: Vikings -3½ (-110)

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The New England Patriots are now 9-1 against the spread for the season after demolishing the Buffalo Bills last week 56-10, and now they are an incredible 22-point favorite over a decent Philadelphia Eagles team.

Donovan McNabb probably won’t play this week but backup A.J. Feeley has averaged a solid 7.2 yards per pass attempt in his 225 career passes with the Eagles (I threw out his numbers running Miami’s horrible offense behind a bad offensive line in 2004). Feeley throws more interceptions than McNabb, who is one of the NFL’s all time leaders in lowest interception percentage, but the difference is only about 2 points overall. My math model favors the Patriots by 17 points with Feeley at quarterback for the Eagles, but the Pats have out-played their stats by an average of eight points per game, so a 22-point spread can certainly be justified.

There have only been two other point spreads higher than 20 points since 1980 and both involved the 49ers of the early 90’s. San Francisco won 21-14 as a 20½ point favorite against Tampa Bay in 1992 and they won 21-8 as a 23 point favorite against the Bengals in 1993. Both Tampa Bay in 92 and Cincy in 93 were horrible teams and the Eagles are actually a solid team even with a backup quarterback.

I have to lean with the underdog at this number.

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The Jets played well last week in upsetting the Steelers, but Pittsburgh was in a huge letdown situation and Dallas is not.

The Cowboys’ offense is simply too good (6.5 yards per play against teams that would combine to 5.2 yppl to an average team) for a horrible Jets’ defense to stop. New York has allowed 5.8 yppl this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team) and the Jets are especially bad defending the pass (7.4 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppp), so expect Tony Romo and Terrell Owens to have another huge day after combining for four touchdowns last week.

New York has faced two other good passing teams this season, allowing 10.6 yppp to New England and 9.9 yppp to Cincinnati, and my math model projects 10.0 yppp for the Cowboys in this game. New York has averaged only 4.8 yppl this season and the Jets’ attack is even worse now with Kellen Clemens at quarterback while Dallas has one of the best defensive units in the NFL.

My math model favors Dallas by 18½ points and there are no situations that apply that suggest a Cowboys’ letdown. I’ll lean with Dallas to show off on national TV. Final Score - Dallas 33, NY Jets 14.

Free Pick: Dallas -14 (-105)

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The Falcons aren’t saying who their starting quarterback will be this week with Byron Leftwich returning the practice and Joey Harrington having led the team to two straight victories. Leftwich may be a better choice if healthy but he didn’t show it in limited playing time this season (just 4.8 yards per pass play).

Tampa Bay is clearly the better team here, as they rate as 0.4 yards per play better than average on offense (with Garcia at quarterback) and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively. The Falcons are 0.5 yppl worse than average on offense (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and 0.3 yppl worse than average on defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team).

The Bucs are also less likely to turn the ball over given Jeff Garcia’s low lifetime interception rate (he’s only thrown three picks this season and five interception on 446 pass attempts going back to last year), and my math model favors Tampa Bay by 7 points in this game.

I’ll lean with the Falcons despite the math, as Atlanta applies to a very good 37-7 ATS home underdog momentum situation. Final Score: Tampa Bay-20, Atlanta-19.

Free Pick: Falcons +3 (-105)

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Kansas State was embarrassed last week by Nebraska, losing 73-31 with their defense giving up 703 total yards at 9.0 yards per play. What happened to the stingy Kansas State defense we saw earlier in the season?

Injuries happened. Top CB Joshua Moore was suspended early in the season and never saw action and the lack of depth in the Wildcats’ defensive backfield has been exposed the last three weeks since CB Byron Garvin has been out. Kansas State’s pass defense went from good to bad in three weeks without Garvin and losing starting DT Steven Cline hurt the run defense. Kansas State is a worse than average defensive team now but the Wildcats can still compete in this game with a good offense and great special teams play.

The Wildcats are among the nation’s best in special teams and an offense that rates at 0.5 yards per play better than average (5.9 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) has a slight edge over a Missouri defense that is 0.4 yppl better than average (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl). The Tigers have a very good offense (6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) and my math model favors them by nine points after adjusting for the current state of the Kansas State defense.

However, Kansas State is 73-34 ATS at home since 1990 (8-3 ATS under coach Ron Prince) and the Wildcats also apply to a solid 53-23-1 ATS home underdog bounce-back situation that is 13-1 ATS when applying to teams that allowed 41 points or more the previous week.  Final Score: Missouri-37, Kansas St-34.

Free Pick: Kansas State +7 (-110)
 
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The Jacksonville Jaguars moved the ball last week against a horrible New Orleans Saints defense, but the Jaguars have been 0.2 yppl worse than average with Quinn Gray at quarterback.

Gray was horrible against good defensive teams Indianapolis and Tampa Bay (2.9 yards per pass play in those 2 games) before having the luxury of having wide open receivers against the Saints. Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans have one of the best defensive units in the league (4.6 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team), so don’t expect Gray to be able to move the offense against a Titans’ defense that is going to limit the Jaguars’ good rushing attack.

Unfortunately, the Titans’ offense is even worse than their defense is good, as Tennessee has averaged only 4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack. Jacksonville has surprisingly been 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively this season and their run defense is going to be particularly bad without running stuffing DT Marcus Stroud, who is suspended for the next 4 games. Fellow All-Pro DT John Henderson is banged up and is listed as questionable this week, so the Titans won’t have to depend on the horrible passing of Vince Young to move the ball in this game.

There are situations favoring both sides in this game, but my math favors Tennessee by just over a touchdown.

© Copyright 2007. Reprinted with permission of the author.

Carolina has scored just seven points in each of their last two games and it looks like coach John Fox is going to turn to 21-year veteran Vinny Testaverde to try to revive the attack.

Testaverde is certainly a better option than David Carr, who has averaged a pathetic 3.8 yards per pass play on his 126 pass plays this season. The Panthers have a good rushing attack (4.4 ypr against teams that would allow 4.1 ypr to an average team) but they still rate at 0.3 yards per play worse than average offensively with Testaverde at quarterback. That unit actually has a slight advantage over a Falcons’ defense that is 0.4 yppl worse than average this season. Atlanta is a little worse than that offensively, averaging just 4.8 yppl and rating at 0.5 yppl worse than average with Joey Harrington at quarterback.

Carolina still has a pretty solid defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and my math model favors the Panthers by five points. Carolina is just 9-18-1 ATS as a favorite of four points or more in recent years, but the Panthers apply to a solid 63-21-5 ATS statistical matchup indicator that applies as long as they are favored by no more than four points. I’ll lean slightly with Carolina.

Free Pick: Panthers -4 (-110)

© Copyright 2007. Reprinted with permission of the author.

I’m not sure why Kansas City is favored in this game, as the Packers have a far better offense and a defense that isn’t much worse than the Chiefs’ solid D.

Green Bay has been 0.6 yards per play better than average so far this season, averaging 5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team, but I rate that unit as 0.5 yppl better than average with top running back DeShawn Wynn on the IR with a shoulder injury (even though Ryan Grant did a decent job last week against Denver). Kansas City has been 0.4 yppl better than average defensively this season, so the Packers have a slight advantage when they have the ball.

Green Bay’s better than average defense (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense) has an even bigger advantage against a porous Chiefs’ attack that has averaged only 4.9 yppl this season despite facing teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Kansas City has only reached 5.0 yppl once all season and they’re not likely to reach that number in this game either.

The Packers should be favored in this game, so taking the points is the percentage play.

Free Pick: Packers +2 (-110)

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The Florida Gators have three losses despite being one of the best teams in the nation, and their pass defense is to blame.

Florida has the best offense in the nation based on my compensated numbers (a little better than Oregon) and the Gators have a very good run defense (3.9 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average team), but they’ve allowed 6.5 yards per pass play to teams that would average 6.1 yppp against an average team. The Gators have allowed 20 points or more to all Division-IA teams they have faced this season, but Vanderbilt is a more run-oriented team with Mackenzi Adams at quarterback (19 or less pass plays in each of their last 3 games), so the Commodores are less likely to take advantage of Florida’s one weakness. Adams is a decent passer, averaging 5.4 yppp against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average QB, and the rushing attack is also just average with Adams at quarterback.

An average defense probably isn’t enough to stay close to a Florida team that has averaged 6.7 yards per play this season against seven Division-IA teams that would combine to allow just 4.9 yppl to an average team. Vanderbilt is a solid defensive team (4.9 yppl against teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average D), but that unit is actually slightly worse than what Florida has faced on average in their Division-IA games.

My math model favors Florida by 21½ points, but Vandy is 12-2 ATS the last four seasons as a road dog of seven points or more and Florida is 0-4 ATS as a conference home favorite of 14 points or more under coach Urban Meyer. I’ll still lean with the Gators: Florida-38, Vanderbilt-19.

Free Pick: Florida -14½ (-110)

© Copyright 2007. Reprinted with permission of the author.

The Indianapolis Colts aren’t getting as much love from the media as they should be getting due to all the attention being given to the New England Patriots, but they are a much better team this season than the were when they won the Super Bowl last season.

The Peyton Manning led offense is as good as usual, but this Colts’ team has the best defense they’ve had in the Tony Dungy era, as that unit has yielded just 4.6 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team (that number is adjusted for having faced Jacksonville’s backup Quinn Gray for most of last week’s game).

The Panthers were struggling offensively with Jake Delhomme at quarterback and they’ve been even worse with David Carr and then Vinnie Testaverde running the attack. The rushing attack has been good, but the Panthers have averaged only 4.7 yppl in 3 games without Delhomme (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team).

The Panthers’ defense has stepped up their level of play to compensate but that unit is just 0.1 yppl better than average for the season and my math model favors Indianapolis by 7 ½ points in this game. However, Carolina has always played their best against good teams and the Panthers are now 22-6-2 ATS as an underdog the last 5 seasons, including 3-0 ATS this season. The Colts, meanwhile, are just 1-5 ATS since last season as a road favorite against a winning team with the one win coming last week against Jacksonville’s horrible backup quarterback.

Finally, the Panthers also apply to a 51-10-3 ATS subset of a 212-116-16 ATS contrary indicator.

I’ll consider Carolina a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more and I’ll take Carolina in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 ½ points or more.

© Copyright 2007. Reprinted with permission of the author.

Rutgers got a bad rap when they lost consecutive home games to Maryland and Cincinnati, but the Scarlet Knights are a very good team and a win here over highly ranked West Virginia wouldn’t be much of an upset.

West Virginia is a very good team, rating at 1.3 yards per play better than average on offense (6.8 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and 0.8 yppl better than average on defense (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl), but the Scarlet Knights should compete well at home in this game. Rutgers has averaged 7.0 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team -- that’s excluding the two special teams plays for 51 yards against South Florida, which go into my special teams ratings instead -- and the Scarlet Knights are 0.7 yppl better than average on defense.

The Rutgers offense exploded early in the season against bad defensive teams and while the quality of their opponents is factored into their ratings it is pretty obvious that the Knights’ offense is not as good when only including games against decent defensive teams. However, Rutgers is still 0.8 yppl better than average offensively in their last four games against better defensive teams and that is the rating I’ll use for the Scarlet Knights in this game.

The math favors West Virginia by 4 points and Rutgers is now 21-7-1 ATS as an underdog since 2003, including 6-0 ATS since last season. West Virginia, however, is 22-7 ATS on the road and 21-5 ATS in conference games when not favored by 15 points or more since 2002. I wouldn’t really want to go against either team here, but I’ll lean with Rutgers +6 based on the line value.

© Copyright 2007. Reprinted with permission of the author.

Miami is 0-7 for the season but the Dolphins have been competitive in four of their seven games and haven’t really been as bad as their record would indicate. Miami’s offense is better than average for the season (5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), and they’ve actually been average the last three games with Cleo Lemon at quarterback (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl).

The Giants have rebounded defensively from their horrible first game against Dallas (8.8 yppl and 45 points allowed) and they rate at 0.3 yppl better than average for the season on that side of the ball while their offense has also been 0.3 yppl better than average. Miami has not been able to defend the pass this year (8.0 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would combine to average 7.0 yppp against an average defense) and their defense is 0.7 yppl worse than average overall, so the Giants should move the ball well.

Overall, my math model favors the Giants by just 6 points without adjusting Miami for the loss of running back Ronnie Brown. The loss of Brown may not mean anything given that new back Jesse Chatman has run for 5.9 ypr this year and 5.5 ypr in this career (on 99 carries). Chatman was great last week, so I’ll wait to see if losing Brown makes a difference in Miami’s offense.

Most teams tend to let down against winless teams and winless teams (0-5 or worse) are 90-54-4 ATS as underdogs, including 55-25-3 ATS when facing a non-division opponent. It certainly makes sense that opponents are going to take the winless team lightly, and it’s even harder to get up for a bad non-division opponent. The Dolphins apply to a 68-26-3 ATS version of the winless underdog and I’ll consider Miami a Strong Opinion at +7½ points or more.

© Copyright 2007. Reprinted with permission of the author.