Peter Loshak

Infinite scenarios can play out through the course of a football game, and the Super Bowl is certainly no different.

How will the Steelers defense react to the high-powered Cardinals offense led by Kurt Warner?  How will Pittsburgh's special teams get the better of Arizona to set up all important field position?

SBR.tv's Peter Loshak asks those questions and more with a panel of SBRforum contributors tossing in their takes on Sunday's big game.

Arizona has a surprisingly high number of weaknesses for a playoff team, while Carolina brings a game that is as balanced as Arizona’s is unbalanced.

The Cardinals will ride Kurt Warner and their explosive passing game as far as it will take them, which is likely to produce some TDs but not necessarily a win or a cover as a 10-point underdog. The Panthers’ much-heralded two-headed running game combined with their underrated and highly effective passing game will be very tough for Arizona’s sub-par defense to stop, and high scoring is expected in this clash of Over-trending teams that have each gone over the posted total in six of their last seven games.

Tennessee has enjoyed a long layoff during which they got a number of key players healthy, while Baltimore will come into this game off of a short week. With a tight line of the Titans as a 3-point home favorite and a low total in the mid-30s, there are numerous betting angles that warrant a look into. Teasers, buying off the 3, and money line value or lack thereof are discussed.

There are a couple of rule changes in store for college football in 2008 that could turn out to be important from a betting perspective. With the average NCAA football game running more than three hours and 20 minutes in 2007, the new rules are intended to shorten the length of games. In 2006, similar rule changes had unexpectedly major results, resulting in fewer plays per game in general and lower scoring per game as a consequence.

Click on graphic for video report.

The two new rules that could impact the pace of games and the number of scoring opportunities are a new 40-second play clock similar to what is currently run in the NFL, and a different way of handling the game clock on out-of-bounds plays.

The general consensus is that the new rules may encourage more no-huddle offenses, and reward teams that run it well, while on the totals front the feeling is that the new rules won’t affect overall scoring much at all. There have, however, been some in the know who have predicted that once again scoring will be reduced, although not as drastically as it was in 2006.

However things do turn out on the gridiron in the coming weeks, this matter definitely warrants the attention of any serious college football bettor, and certain key indicators that the new rules are or are not impacting the flow of play should be noted.

One of the first areas to consider when examining the preseason is RESEARCH.  Unique to the NFL preseason is the fact that game plans and goals tend to be very well publicized.  Because wins and losses matter very little in the preseason, teams and coaches tend to share a lot of information that they would otherwise keep to themselves once the regular season begins.

Click graphic to view video

The trend by coaches in the NFL preseason to avoid OVERTIME at all costs provides another potential edge.  With strategies and play calling being influenced by the strong desire to avoid OT, unexpected calls like 2-point conversions can often diminish the importance of key numbers like 3 and 7.

Finally, pro bettors often take a close look in the preseason at NFL teams that performed poorly in the previous regular season.  Many times, these teams provide the exception to the “rule” that preseason wins and losses are unimportant.  Coming off of a bad season, these teams may actually be placing much more importance on early victories than their opponents.

So, despite the common belief that there is no value to be found betting NFL preseason games, many professional gamblers think otherwise.

View the complete video.

The Yankees have been somewhat notoriously overrated as road favorites in recent years, although this year that has not been the case. Sitting in third place in the AL East, and playing only .500 ball on the road, the Yanks have not wound up as a big road fave too much this year, and when they have, they have tended to win.

But on Monday at Texas, the betting odds have installed the Yankees as a favorite in the -150s range, and I think some of the old tendencies of the market to overrate the Yankees on the road may be creeping back again.

Yankees’ starter Joba Chamberlain is a big reason this line is so big, and Joba has been impressive in his conversion to a starter, no doubt. But he may be affected by the oppressive heat of Texas in this start, and may not be as sharp as usual.

The Yankees are also having some bullpen concerns at the moment, which could well hurt them a lot here if the game is close in the late innings. The Yanks have no clear eighth-inning setup man right now, and most importantly, closer Mariano Rivera is having health issues. He was unavailable on Sunday due to back spasms, and it’s not clear at all that he will be available and in good shape to pitch for the Monday game. If this game becomes a shootout, not having Rivera for the 9th could loom large.

On the other side the Rangers have been playing reasonably well lately. The Rangers’ lineup is in a good groove right now, enjoying productivity day in and day out, and they are competitive in most games they play. Texas starter Vincente Padilla is solid, and while rarely lights-out, usually keeps pace with the pitcher he opposes. Padilla is also the top money-making starting pitcher in all of baseball at the moment, a fact that might surprise some people. Some of that is due to luck of course, but he is still nevertheless a reliable guy on the mound, and a good bet as an underdog at home in most situations.

The Rangers do well against right-handed pitching in general, and I don’t think Joba is likely to outpitch Padilla, unless Padilla gets crushed, a small but always-present possibility. As a hedge against that, I’ll also take a bet on the Over which I think has a bit of value, considering how lively things have been offensively in Texas recently. So on Monday I’ll be on Texas +145 and the Over 9½ (-120).

On Wednesday's MLB card, the betting odds have installed Houston as a very small favorite at home over the slumping Cincinnati Reds, and I think there is decent value on the side of the Astros with their overnight line of about -115.

The main reason this line is this low is because of the heady reputation Reds starter Edinson Volquez has engendered in 2008, his first season putting it all together on the major league level, realizing his well-touted potential, and earning an appearance in the All-Star Game. Not to take anything away from Volquez’ explosive success early in the year, which was legitimate and probably not fluky, but as might be expected with a young starter gaining his first taste of elite success in the majors, things have taken a turn for the worse as the season has worn on.

Volquez’ two post-break starts were shaky, and signs of him coming back down to Earth even before the break were apparent in his July and late June starts as well. According to Volquez, he is not “hitting his spots” like he was earlier in the year, and he is searching for mechanical reasons why that might be. That is not a good thing to hear, and unless he comes up with a solution for this start he is likely to be in for more of the same at Minute Maid Park on Wednesday.

Fellow Dominican Wandy Rodriguez, on the other hand, has been quite effective since the break. His strikeouts are up, he has avoided giving up big innings and home runs, and was able to quiet two solid lineups in the Cubs and the Brewers his last two times out. If Rodriguez is able to be a master on the mound as he is often able to consistently be when he gets into a good groove, he will likely outpitch Volquez, which will give Houston a big edge.

All in all, things are looking up for Houston and Rodriguez at the moment, and not so up for Volquez and the Reds, so I’ll take a shot with the low line on Wednesday and play Houston -115.

On Friday's MLB card, one line jumped out at me as being modestly but solidly off a bit, and that is Minnesota at home priced as a favorite in the low -120s over visiting Texas.

The Twins, perhaps the AL version of the Mets, ended the first half on an impressive and extended tear, rising from a sub-.500 record to having the fifth-best record in the AL and winding up only a game and a half out of first place in the AL Central. While the Twins were no doubt overachieving a bit, they do still nonetheless have a good core of a team, with a quality bullpen to preserve close wins at home, and I expect that they will continue on as one of the better AL team for the rest of the year and challenge for a playoff spot.

The Rangers are a solid team in their own right with some nice positives to them, but they are still just a .500 team away from Rangers Ballpark, and they are at a notable disadvantage when they go on the road to face winning teams with capable bullpens such as the Twins.

The starting pitching matchup here is basically a wash. Both starters involved can be decent but are usually pretty hittable, but the Twins will probably gain a small edge from the lefty/righty situations here; the Twins fare a bit better when facing righties, as Texas starter Kevin Millwood is, while the Rangers struggle a bit against southpaws, one of whom they will be up against on Friday in Minnesota’s Glen Perkins.

Adding it all up, I see value on the side of Minnesota, a team that has played well (32-18) and profitably (+14.4 units) at home all year long, and is currently playing some good ball to boot. If this game is close in the later innings, Texas will face a tough challenge pulling out a close win when Minnesota’s bullpen gets involved. This is a short price to pay here for Minnesota in my opinion, so I’ll be going with the Twins -125 at home on Friday night.

CUETO LOOKS TO MATCH JOHAN
The Mets reeled off nine straight wins to close out the first half, winding up significantly over .500, a half-game out of first place in the NL East, and having atoned somewhat for their underachievement under popular fired manager Willie Randolph in the first few months of the season. Now with Johan Santana on the mound to start the second half in Cincinnati, the Mets may look like a good road fave at -140, but I’m not entirely convinced of that.

Despite being loaded with lefty bats, the Reds have not suffered against left-handed starters this year, having gone 18-17 and breaking even on units. They were even able to get to Santana for three runs in six innings earlier this year at Shea Stadium, and I think Santana will probably not have a flawless start here, but rather something of the 7-IP, 2-ER variety.

Up-and-down rookie Johnny Cueto, starting for the Reds, may well benefit from the extra rest conferred by the All-Star break. Unless Cueto get shelled, this game should be competitive throughout, and I am leaning towards the Reds as a good-sized home dog.

PEAVY ROUNDING TO TOP FORM
Jake Peavy’s return from the DL was a bit unsteady in June, for him at least, but his two starts in July were vintage Peavy, and he is likely to be fully in top form for at least the near future. The Padres do tend to get up for games Peavy starts, as his notorious intensity is infectious, and this is a game where the whole team is likely to be playing near the top of their game.

The big question here is whether surprising Kyle Lohse will be able to maintain his fantastic momentum of the first half. Lohse has pitched well all year, and the Cards impressively won 10 out of his final 11 starts of the season, sending him into the Top 20 in baseball in starter P/L.

But I think Lohse is likely to very much revert to his mean in the second half, if not completely collapse. He has a tenuous hold on his game, and overall fatigue will hurt him more than others if he begins to suffer from it.

This may not be the game to start fading Lohse hard, but I do think a 5-inning play on San Diego may have solid value; a shutout first 5 from Peavy would not be a surprise at all.

ALL-STAR CLIFF LEE IN A POSSIBLE LETDOWN SPOT
Tampa Bay is a good team with a solid foundation, no doubt, but they have taken a turn for the worse in recent games, and that losing mentality is likely to haunt them through the rest of their series at Cleveland as the first half of the season winds down.

The Indians were underachieving while mired in their own embarrassing road losing streak last week, but they rebounded in a big way on Thursday, and they are not doubt focused on getting a slew of wins under their belt while settling down at home.

Tampa Bay starter James Shields is in a strong and steady groove right now, but Cleveland’s Cliff Lee is entirely capable of matching him, and if he does, Cleveland should be able to pull this one out.

The one big danger though, is a possible psychological letdown for All-Star Lee in his last start before the All-Star game. That is something that does happen not infrequently, and it would not be a surprise here at all for it to happen to Lee, who has logged a lot of innings and has a history of inconsistency.

If the betting odds move the line in favor of Cleveland, and Tampa Bay winds up as a smallish underdog, the Rays will be looking like an attractive bet. A bet on the Tampa Bay run line might be even better, as it offers protection against both a strong start from Lee and a blown late-inning game by the Tampa Bay bullpen.

ORIOLES TO FACE 2007 NEMESIS BUCHHOLZ
Boston is once again an enormous home favorite even with a non-marquee starter going and facing a .500 team. And once again, they may have some value on their side, even at that huge line and in those circumstances.

Sox starter Clay Buchholz no-hit the Orioles last year, and he can be a lights-out pitcher when he is on his game. He was very good at times early this year, but was also very inconsistent, mixing in clunkers with his quality starts, which was not a big surprise, and then landed on the DL with a fingernail problem.

But Buchholz is now rehabbed and rested, and his minor league starts went well overall. He is probably good to go here, and if he is, Boston should have a strong edge, greater than the betting odds are currently giving them.

Boston has torn up lefty starters this year, and is 3-0 as a home favorite in the -175 to -200 range. Orioles’ starter Brian Burres does not appear to be a good candidate to buck those trends. Burres had a quality April, but has gotten knocked around ever since, including a shelling when he faced Boston in June. He is likely to be vulnerable here again, and a strong start from him would be an abrupt reversal of form.

Due to the uncertainty of Buchholz’ readiness, I think a play on the Red Sox run line is preferable to the money line.

OSWALT RETURNS IN A SOFT SPOT VS WASHINGTON
Roy Oswalt is coming back from his brief time out due to a strained hip, but I’m not convinced he is in good shape at all. Oswalt threw a bullpen session where he said he felt great, Houston manager Cecil Cooper has labeled Oswalt “completely healthy,” and Oswalt’s last few starts before his latest injury were good. But Oswalt had to have an injection to deal with the pain caused by a worn-down disk in his back, according to the Houston Chronicle, and that is not something that will go away easily.

I’m itching to fade Oswalt in general, but I wish there were something better on the other side on Friday than Tim Redding and the Washington Nationals. The Nationals are a lowly and decimated team, and they really just are not winning at all in any kind of way right now. Redding has been OK this year, but the Astros will be bringing a strong complement of lively bats into Washington for this series, and Redding is not likely to have a strong outing in this spot.

EATON IFFY, PEDRO IFFIER
There are a lot of contradictory factors involved in the Mets/Phillies game on Monday.

Phillies starter Adam Eaton has been excellent against the Mets in his career, but most of that is due to how successful he has been at Shea, and he has struggled most times out this year. On the other side, Mets starter Pedro Martinez bears no current resemblance to the Pedro of old, and he will no doubt be vulnerable here as he has been all season long.

And a number of the big bats in Philadelphia’s quality lineup have been slumping, especially at home, where the Phils have now lost eight out of their last 10 in their last three series.

But I think a bet on Philly may be warranted at this low line. Pedro may well give the Phillies chance after chance until they finally get something going on offense here, and even if the Mets hit Eaton, the Phillies stand to have an edge in a shootout at home.

STREAKING TWINS FACE STIFF TEST IN BOSTON
After their come-from-behind win Sunday over Cleveland, the Twins have won 16 out of 18, yet the betting odds have installed them as an underdog in the +150s, down 10 cents from the overnight line in the +160s.

Most of those wins have come in Minnesota though, and things have been decidedly less sanguine for the Twins on the road. They have still nevertheless been a profitable road team this year, and they tend to do well against righties, which stands to reason considering that most of their offensive firepower comes from the left side.

The Red Sox, as usual, have been a juggernaut at home this year. The jury is still out though on how much Boston starter Daisuke Matsuzaka has recovered from his shoulder injury. He has had his typical start his last two times out – low IP, a lot of walks, few hits, and escaping with his team in the lead. If he can repeat that here, it will probably be another win as a big home favorite for the Red Sox.

BREWERS SURGING ON
Milwaukee was badly underachieving in the beginning of the year, but the talent was always there. It’s not a huge surprise that they have been able to rebound, playing well over .600 ball since mid-May. They have climbed into second place in the NL Central, and they may get a further psychological and on-field boost with the impending acquisition of stud starting pitcher C.C. Sabathia.

The home/road disparities in this game are stark. The Rockies, as is often the case, are terrible on the road while the Brewers have one of the best home records in baseball, which has produced a profit of about 11 units.

The lines for this game have taken a curious trajectory; Milwaukee was first bet way up, and then Colorado took a ton of money, pushing the line way back down. This could well have something to do with Sabathia trade rumors.

Rockies’ starter Ubaldo Jimenez, when he is on his game, can be very tough. And he may well come with a top-notch effort here. But all things considered, the Brewers in the -120s range at home seems low.

FIREWORKS POSSIBLE IN TEXAS
This is a dangerous spot for the Angles and starter Ervin Santana, as a sizable road favorite. Santana seems to have impressively fixed his career-long problems on the road, but he has always been particularly bad at Rangers Ballpark, and he has been increasingly inconsistent as the season has worn on. He could be in for one of his classic road clunkers here.

Rangers’ starter Luis Mendoza has a lot of talent and promise, but he is not close to being a reliable big league starter yet.

With the Angels hitting well in general, this game could easily turn into a shootout, and if it does, bets on the over and on Texas as a good-sized home dog will have value.

SIDNEY PONSON AT -170
The Sid Ponson train rides again, and it continues to be a spectacle. Ponson has got to be one of the worst 5-1, 3.50 ERA starting pitchers of the last few years. But he keeps getting breaks and hanging on, and now he and the Yankees are a -170 overnight favorite over Texas.

That might be a dangerous line however, and not just because the Rangers have already won the first two games in this series as huge underdogs. Rangers’ starter Luis Mendoza has had a rocky road so far this year, dealing with nagging shoulder injuries and blisters. But he now seems to be healthy, and when he is, his stuff can be very good. The Rangers have high hopes for Mendoza, and if his recent relief stints are any indication, he may be ready to blossom as a starter, effective immediately.

Getting back to Ponson, it’s not clear how he will react to facing his old team, the one that released him a month ago for, among other things, “disrespecting teammates and club personnel.” Ponson wouldn’t talk to the New York media on Tuesday, claiming he doesn’t talk the day before he pitches.

But Ponson’s last start against the Mets, which is probably contributing to keeping this line high, is a bit of a mirage in my opinion. That start was at Shea, facing the Mets with no DH and in the second game of a doubleheader. Going against his old team at Yankee Stadium will likely be a different scenario entirely.

If Ponson does have a bad start though, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yankees come back late against the Texas relievers and bail him out once again. A bet on the Texas 5-inning line is probably a safer deal than the full game line.

THE PEDRO OF OLD HAS YET TO RETURN
Pedro Martinez has not done well at all for the Mets since returning from the DL, and while there is some statistical indication that things could get better for him in the near future, you’d like to be getting a better line on the road than even money before betting on something like that.

Cardinals’ starter Joel Pineiro hasn’t been a prize on the mound himself in recent months, but he has been serviceable, and that may be all St. Louis will need here to pull out a win.

The Cards have been pretty good and are in the black on the year both at home and against righties, while the Mets have struggled and are in the red on the year on the road and against righties.

I think St. Louis should be a bit bigger of a favorite than the betting odds have them on the overnights, and I expect the line to move in their favor a bit by game time. I think a bet on the Cards would be warranted anywhere under -110.

ARAMIS RAMIREZ OUT AGAIN FOR THE CUBS
With both Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez out of the lineup for the Cubs in this series against the Giants, there is a notable lack of firepower in the Cubs’ attack, despite the fact that other lesser-known players have picked up the slack pretty well so far.

Matt Cain was able to take good advantage of that on Tuesday with his two-hitter gem, and Wednesday’s starter for San Francisco, Kevin Correia, is admittedly no Cain, to put it mildly. But Correia can usually give a solid outing against modest lineups in pitcher-friendly parks, and a six-inning, three-run type of start from him here will probably put the Giants in a decent position to win as a home dog.

Cubs’ starter Ryan Dempster has had a strong year so far, but his K/BB ratio and other peripherals leave me a bit concerned about his ability to keep it up.

This line may rise in the Cubs’ direction, and if it does, I’ll be looking for a value play on San Francisco if their underdog line moves into the +130s.

GARZA’S FLAME VS WAKEFIELD’S FLUTTER
The first game of the Tampa Bay/Boston series went approximately as expected. Tampa Bay held serve in this home-dominated series, and Boston continued its losing ways on the turf. Game 2, however, is looking like it could wind up a completely different story, with its own unique and very uncertain handicapping factors involved.

The pitching matchup alone is a fascinating one. Boston starter Tim Wakefield has been absolutely dominant at Tropicana throughout his career, and normally getting him as an underdog there would be something to jump all over. However, he has struggled in his last two starts at Tropicana, and the extra benefit his knuckleball usually derives from pitching indoors seems to have ebbed a bit recently.

In my opinion though, these deviations from his usual pattern have been due to other factors involved, and with Wakefield now in a groove where he has been pitching consistently well in general everywhere he has gone, I think a top-notch start for him here is likely.

On the other side, Tampa Bay starter Matt Garza may well keep up with Wakefield even if Wakefield is lining up zeroes. Garza has awesome stuff, and more often that not, he has been on his top game this year. When he is, scoring for the other team is rarely an option. His last start against Florida was vintage Garza, where he threw a one-hitter against a team with some lively bats in a park not usually forgiving of pitchers’ mistakes. He has faced Boston twice this year though, with poor results each time.

All in all, I think Boston is the side with value here, although exactly how much, and how much confidence there is, is unclear. No outcome in this game would be a surprise, but I think Boston has a decent shot here to get the first road win in this series in 2008.

LOSING CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE NATIONALS
Washington may have blown their best chance for a win on their current road trip with Jon Rauch’s blown save on Monday. The Nationals aren’t going to go into too many ninth innings with a lead, and blowing those leads is the mark of a team to stay away from at the betting window.

On Tuesday the Nationals are going with Collin Balester making his major league debut, a guy who was good but not great in the minors this season. Balester also doesn’t yet get deep into games; he didn’t go more than six innings in any of his last 10 minor league starts.

Marlins’ starter Mark Hendrickson, to be sure, is in a bad way right now. After having a great April, he ran into trouble in May and then even deeper trouble in June. But if anyone is going to give Hendrickson a break, it’s going to be the Nationals. I don’t think he’s injured, I think he has just regressed back to his mean of sub-mediocrity. But for this game, that’s probably a good thing. If Hendrickson can have his usual shaky start, and get a bit of a break from Washington’s weak lineup, that is probably good enough for him to leave the game with a lead, which is probably good enough for Florida to be able to pull out a win with relative ease.

Adding it all up, the Marlins are looking like a decent bet in the -130s even with Hendrickson starting. They are, after all, at home facing the Nationals and a guy making his big league debut.

WANDY RODRIGUEZ STEADY AT HOME
Astros’ starter Wandy Rodriguez’ home/road splits, while maybe not Ervin Santana-esque, are becoming pretty stark. This is a bit of a surprise since Minute Maid Park is not a particularly pitcher-friendly stadium, and especially not for lefties like Rodriguez with its short left-field porch. But Rodriguez clearly feels more comfortable at home, and he has repeatedly shut down better lineups at Minute Maid than what the Dodgers are currently fielding.

Rodriguez has also has been quite a streaky pitcher in his brief career so far, getting shelled when he is off, but having deep and quality outings when he is on. He seems to be currently in the midst of a good run, and in his reports and interviews he mentions he is feeling good out on the mound right now. I do expect him to tail off later this season as he did in 2007, but in the middle months of the year at home, he seems to be in his element, and I think he is likely to have a good start again on Tuesday.

Dodgers’ starter Clayton Kershaw has that much-admired wicked curve ball, but he has still nonetheless not yet proven that he is able to put together a deep and quality start in the major leagues. Leaving one hitter looking helpless at the plate means little if the next two guys get a walk and a double, and he hasn’t ultimately as yet been a great asset to the Dodgers on the field as far as wins and losses are concerned.

Houston may have bullpen issues in this game since closer Jose Valverde has pitched three days in a row now and 41-year-old second choice Doug Brocail has been called in from the pen in three of the last four Houston contests. But I still think that all the bets that are implied by a good start from Rodriguez and a modest one from Kershaw probably have value.

BOSTON AND TAMPA TO DUKE IT OUT AGAIN
The rematch between Boston and Tampa Bay is set to start on Monday, and this may be one of those series where you can ignore trends and records and past performances. After the ugly brawl that took place in their last meeting, you can rest assured that both teams will be gunning for the other.

The home team has won every game in the nine meetings so far this year, and with ultra-competitive James Shields starting on Monday, the Rays should have a decided edge here. Shields has struggled a bit in June, but his K/BB ratio has remained stellar, and he seemed to regain his edge his last time out at Florida.

The betting odds, however, do seem to have taken all this into account. Tampa Bay is a -150 favorite, which looks to be about right considering that Red Sox rookie starter Justin Masterson has been pretty good so far this year, and seems capable of matching a strong performance by Shields. But some of Masterson’s peripheral numbers are not so great, and I would not be surprised if his season took a turn for the worse in the near future.

I think the value here is with Tampa Bay, but it may be small. Despite the big line, Boston does not do well on artificial turf. They are actually 1-9, -9.5 on the turf this year, and even over the last three years they are 20-34, -21.5 on the turf.

One interesting additional note is that Tampa Bay seems to flourish when they draw big home crowds; they are 9-1 this year at home when attendance is over 30,000.

UGGLA OUT FOR FLORIDA AGAINST WOEFUL NATS
The key to betting the Florida/Washington game is figuring out exactly how bad the Nationals’ offense really is. Pretty bad, without question, but they may be able to get something going against the Marlins’ rookie starter Ryan Tucker. Tucker did well in his short major league debut earlier this month, but things have been going a bit downhill since then, and the Nats’ lineup may surprise here.

Florida will be without HR and RBI leader Dan Uggla here, and Washington starter Tim Redding has proven himself to be a consistently capable pitcher this year. He is actually the most profitable starting pitcher in baseball at the moment from a betting standpoint, a fact which may surprise some people a lot.

Florida’s Top 6 in the lineup still comprise a strong assortment of bats, and the line has moved steadily in Florida’s direction since opening. But if it keeps moving further that way, a play on Washington may become warranted.

HARANG GOING THROUGH A ROUGH STRETCH
Cincinnati starter Aaron Harang has a well-deserved stellar reputation, but the fact is he has struggled progressively this year as the season has rolled on. Last year’s top money-making starter has turned into a loser this season, and for this game, things are not looking too good for him. His innings pitched are down, and his K/BB ratio is way down recently, which is a particularly telling sign for a pitcher like Harang.

Pittsburgh has not been a good road team this year, but nonetheless, if Harang struggles again, the Pirates should be competitive down to the end. They do have a few big bats that can send the ball out of the park, and the Reds’ assortment of lefty power hitters has been struggling recently, especially the rookies Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.

Pirates’ starter Paul Maholm isn’t great, but he is steady, and he could easily keep Cincy’s lineup at bay, as he has been way better against lefties in his career. He gives up half as many HRs to lefties as he does to righties, and his BAA is 80 points lower and his WHIP 40 points lower against lefties than righties.

Depending on lineups and line movement, I may make a play on Pittsburgh here as a good-sized road dog.

RANDY JOHNSON LIKELY TO BE VULNERABLE AT FENWAY
Is Randy Johnson’s goose finally cooked? Maybe not quite yet, but he is struggling badly right now, and it’s not looking like much of a fluke. His last three starts have been awful, and they have come against Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Kansas City, not quite Murderer’s Row.

Johnson’s name is keeping this line relatively moderate, and it is looking especially so in light of how well the Red Sox have done at home in general this year, and against lefty starters in particular this year, against whom they are 12-3 for a profit of 9 units.

These games where the Red Sox are relatively big home favorites have paid off handsomely so far this year. They suffer the very occasional loss in these situations, but their generous clumps of wins around those losses more than make up for it. As a home favorite between -125 and -175, the Sox are an astounding 21-3, for a net profit of about 16 units.

Boston starter Tim Wakefield’s string of steady quality starts only boosts further the case for a bet on the Sox here at about -150.

STRUGGLING SOUTHPAWS FACE OFF IN CLEVELAND
Tuesday’s showdown between San Francisco and Cleveland featured two equally-matched left-handed starters which resulted in a close and competitive game that gave value to those who backed the Giants as a big underdog. Wednesday’s matchup promises the same kind of scenario, the only difference being that Wednesday’s lefty starters, Barry Zito and Jeremy Sowers, are terrible, as opposed to Tuesday’s starters, who are currently pitching very well.

The Giants have been undervalued on the road in general this year. Their record is actually better on the road than it is at home, and their near-.500 road mark has resulted in a profitable net return on the year. The Indians, for their part, seem to be a bit of a team that plays to the level of their competition; one stat that jumps out at me is Cleveland’s record of 19-29 against teams with losing records, which as you might expect, has resulted in an ugly net loss of 18 units.

Betting real money on a team with Barry Zito starting is always a tough thing to stomach, even as a big underdog. But on the other hand, betting money against a team with Sowers starting is usually a pleasant thought, particularly as a big underdog.

DUKE PITCHING WELL, PIRATES HUGE HOME DOG
The Yankees lost as a sizable road favorite on Tuesday to Pittsburgh, going up against an improving lefty in Tom Gorzelanny, and the same situation might be shaping up for Wednesday’s game. Only here, Pittsburgh’s starter Zach Duke is improving even more than Gorzelanny is, and the Yanks are an even bigger favorite than they were on Tuesday.

It has always been best to proceed with caution when considering a bet on a game Duke is starting. Over the past couple of years he has burned a lot of money for his backers, and has caused a lot of agita in people who had visions of his dominant debut of 2005 still lingering around in mind.

But when Duke’s sinker is working, as it legitimately has been at times this year and particularly recently, in June, he is an effective major league starter and likely to have strong outings. He has gotten better each month this year, and has kept his WHIP down and has gotten ground ball outs when he has needed to.

There’s no question that Yankees’ starter Joba Chamberlain is a stud on the mound, and the Yanks will probably field a better overall lineup than the Pirates in this game. But if Duke continues to be effective, he will be a neutralizing force, and taking Pittsburgh at such an inflated home underdog line will be a good bet.

On Tuesday in MLB, I think there is going to be decent value on the side of the Florida Marlins when they host in-state rival Tampa Bay. At the short favorite line the betting odds have set for the Marlins in this game, approximately -115 on average, I’ll bite.

Tampa Bay is a quality and impressive team this year that has really come into its own. In the AL East, the Rays are a game behind Boston and hold a solid lead over the third-place Yankees. They’re the real deal this year, and they should be in contention to the end.

The Marlins, however, are a similarly strong team, themselves only one game out of first and solidly ahead of the third place team.  They are also likely to contend to the end, with their lineup stocked with lively bats, which could get a further boost with the return of Josh Willingham for this game.

The Rays will lose their DH for this game which could hurt their offensive production, already not their strongest aspect. And their offense tends to suffer a bit on the road as well, a contributing factor to their losing ways on the road recently.

Both starting pitchers involved in this game can be good, but are also erratic and prone to getting hit. But with extended rest I see Marlins starter Scott Olsen as in position to come through with a quality outing, while Rays’ starter Andy Sonnanstine’s vulnerability to high hit totals could make him particularly vulnerable against hot-hitting Florida.

So adding it all up, I will take a shot with Florida -115 in this Sunshine State series opener.

FELIX HERNANDEZ LIKELY TO KEEP THINGS CLOSE
It never feels comfortable putting money on Seattle, a weak team in disarray. But in this spot, as a big underdog, with Felix Hernandez starting and in the midst of a superb June and with the Mets traveling all the way back from Colorado for this series, it might be warranted.

I’m thinking about a play on the Seattle plus 1½ run line, or perhaps the Seattle 5-inning line. If the game is low-scoring and close, as it is likely to be, Seattle at about +160 probably isn’t big enough.

BERGMANN VERY UP AND DOWN
Whenever there is a big home underdog line in a baseball game, as there is here, I am always on the lookout for better than usual value on one side or the other. This game hinges entirely on how you rate Washington starter Jason Bergmann. We all know approximately how good Angels’ starter John Lackey is, how bad the Nationals’ lineup is, and how decent the Angels’ lineup is. But Bergmann is a bit of a wild card here.

Bergmann has displayed lights-out ability in more than a once-in-a-while manner over the years, but he has also shown a lot of inconsistency. And it doesn’t look good that Washington still lost his two home starts in mid-May that came during his scoreless inning streak of that month.

I’m still researching around and looking for clues as to how Bergmann will fare on Monday, but if I do pull the trigger on Washington, it will likely be on a 5-inning bet.

PITCHERS’ DUEL EXPECTED IN ATLANTA
The total on this game has really taken a tumble since opening. It actually opened at 9, with a -110 on both sides at Bookmaker.  The under got slammed to -125 within one minute there, and it has settled in at 8 at most places, shaded to the over on the money lines.

Ben Sheets has really settled into a nice groove of consistent excellence, if not quite dominance. And Braves’ starter Jo-Jo Reyes also looks like he has made a big and legitimate leap forward in terms of learning how to have quality starts in the majors.

Betting the under here, however does look risky to me, especially now at this reduced line. Sheets and Reyes may well both have strong starts, but as happened on Sunday, late scoring could easily send this game over even if they do. The under may look tempting, but I would proceed with caution when thinking about betting it.

On Sunday in MLB, I’m going to take a shot with the under in the finale of the Seattle/Atlanta series. The betting odds have set this line at 9½ on the overnights, which I think is a notch or two too high considering the starting pitching and lineups involved.

Starting for the Braves will be almost-stud Tim Hudson. Hudson throws mostly strong starts, with a rocky outing every month or so that keeps his season-long stats honest. He may have filled his June order for that in his last start at Texas, where he was hit hard and given an early exit after having thrown only 71 pitches. I think he will be primed for a bounce-back start here at home where he has been stellar all season long.

On the other side, Mariners’ starter Carlos Silva has been suffering through a poor season, and understandably gives pause to an under bet here. But Silva really hit rock bottom in May, and his June, which has without question been less than mediocre, still has him headed reasonably in the right direction.

His last two starts have been better, and most importantly for me, his ground ball/fly ball ratio for those two starts was way better than it was when he was getting crushed, and that is a key sign for a sinkerballer like Silva. Silva, interestingly, also threw only 71 pitches in his last start as well, due to an ejection.

We don’t know what the lineups for this game will be as yet, but we do know that home plate umpire Sam Holbrook is admittedly a strong over-trending ump in recent years, with an Over record of 48-29 (62%) since 2006, This does temper my enthusiasm a bit for this bet, because one of Silva’s main strengths is that he doesn’t give up a lot of walks, and an ump with a tight zone can turn one of his starts into a disaster, especially when he is struggling as he is now.

But there may be a few starters getting a day off here as both teams are playing on Monday. And Chipper Jones will definitely be out of the starting lineup for the Braves due to injury. And Holbrook does seem to even out as the totals go higher. Since 2006, he has gone 10-10 O/U on games where the total was 9½ or higher.

So all in all, I see pitching looking on the upswing for this game, and lineups probably on a downswing, coupled with a relatively high total. I’m going to grab this overnight line and take the under 9½ -120 in this one.

On Friday's MLB card, I think there is value on the side of Atlanta as a modest home favorite over the imploding Seattle Mariners.

Seattle is a team in complete disarray, with almost nothing going right for them. Their hitters who were expected to be good are underachieving, and their hitters who were expected to be decent are utterly failing. Their management is in chaos, and even their star closer J.J. Putz is on the DL with arm troubles.

Both the GM and the manager were fired this week, and while that may help things for the Mariners in 2009, for 2008 that doesn’t change anything. The players who will be on the field on Friday against the Braves will be the same ones who have made the Mariners the worst team in baseball through the first three months of the season. And the Mariners are not one of those last place teams that is actually a money maker, as you do sometimes see. Their .350 winning percentage has resulted in an ugly net loss of over 26 units on the year to date.

Atlanta, for their part, is a team is dealing with inconsistency, but they do have some lively bats in their order, most notably .400-flirting Chipper Jones. And they also have one of the best home records in baseball at 25-11.

Yet despite all this, the betting odds have given Atlanta only a modest edge, making them a favorite in the -120s range on the overnights.

There are two reasons for this. One is the reputation of Seattle’s starter Erik Bedard. When Bedard is on, he can be absolutely unhittable, as he has been at times this year. But he also struggles with two main problems – inconsistency and high pitch counts. There is always the chance that Bedard will throw seven or eight shutout innings, and if he does so here, it will kill any bet on Atlanta.

The second reason for the short line is that this is a much more favorable scheduling spot for the Mariners than it is for the Braves. Atlanta is coming off of a 10-day road trip with no rest, while Seattle had the benefit of an off day on Thursday. It is tough to play a road trip without a break and then come back home again with no break.

But I don’t think either of those reasons is quite enough to warrant a line this low. Atlanta starter Jorge Campillo has demonstrated the ability to have shutdown starts himself, so even if Bedard is on his top game, Campillo could match Bedard or at least keep the Braves within a run or two.

So to sum up, I don’t think there is as much value on the side of Atlanta as it may at first seem when looking at the condition of the Mariners next to the Braves’ home record. But I do still think it is a solid play, so I’ll be taking Atlanta -125 to pull out a close one at home on Friday.

ASTROS LOOK TO GET BACK ON TRACK ON OFFENSE
Orioles’ starter Brian Burres is stumbling in a major way right now, and facing Houston’s stocked lineup, one which has hit lefties well this year, with a DH added to boot, does not bode well for him. On the other hand, the big cog in the wheel for the Astros, Lance Berkman, is playing injured, and that has had a big impact on his production at the plate, which has cooled off considerably in June.

The Astros in general are on a bit of a current low tide offensively, but explosive potential is always present with them, and facing Burres could be a spark for that.

Houston is riding a seven-game losing streak however, and with erratic Shawn Chacon starting, and Baltimore proving to be a resilient team able to pull off comeback wins, a fade of Burres might be better off involving a bet on a total of some sort.

SHIELDS BACK FROM SUSPENSION
Here come James Shields, back in action after a nine-day layoff, and he may be supercharged for a lights-out start here. Shields is the kind of guy who is given to getting supercharged for lights-out starts in general, and the extra rest is more likely to have helped him than hurt him.

The betting odds for this game, though, really show how Tampa Bay is in no way a team operating under the radar any longer. The days of game-after-game home dog value with them are gone. Still, the Rays may well be worth a shot here even as a big favorite. They have actually won 24 out of their last 28 home games, a very impressive run.

DUEL OF ATTRITION POSSIBLE IN COLORADO
This game features a clash of two lefty less-than-titans in Jeremy Sowers for Cleveland and Jorge De La Rosa for Colorado. Both of these guys are hanging on for dear life to their spots in the rotation, and neither has been good at all this year. De La Rosa, though, has been good on occasion.

The Rockies probably do rate an edge here however, considering that they are hitting and playing a bit better than the Indians right now, and the De La Rosa has managed to give a good showing now and then. StatFox, interestingly, values the Rockies here as deserving of a favorite line of -121, which I find a little dubious.

One note of caution, however, is a psychological pattern the Rockies seem to have fallen into lately, namely, winning the first two games of a home series and losing the third. Rockies second baseman Jeff Baker perhaps gave us a ominous look forward on that trend.

"Every time we start a series, that’s what’s brought up - try to win the series," said Baker, who homered and scored three runs Wednesday. "That’s what we did last year toward the end and it worked out for us."

PADRES AND YANKEES BOTH PLAYING WELL
The Yankees are starting to hit well and win, and kudos to them for that, but this line looks to be a bit on the high side, as the Padres are in a similar kind of upswing themselves. Their bats are coming alive on the road, and the team seems to have emerged from the lethargic funk of losing they were mired in early in the season.

Yankees’ starter Andy Pettitte, unfortunately, is probably in a decline at this point in his career, and this is not likely to be a good spot for him. He pitched well in the forgiving environment in Oakland his last time out, but in his two starts prior to that outing he got hit pretty hard, and I expect this game to resemble those more than his last.

Padres’ starter Randy Wolf is not quite a stud on the mound, but should be no worse than Pettitte in this spot, and as such I expect this game to be competitive throughout.

I’m leaning towards the over and the Pads’ 5-inning line. If the game becomes a shootout, the Yanks having last licks will loom large.

LIVAN HERNANDEZ IN AN AWFUL WAY
Seriously, what’s going on with Livan Hernandez? Hernandez started the season well, and then showed some increased vulnerability as the games wore on. But he was generally throwing better than expected, and was in fact the “ace” of the staff in the early going for Minnesota.

But then in mid-May, the wheels came completely off Hernandez’ wagon, and everything went haywire, a bit inexplicably. In his three June starts, he has a 13.15 ERA, and an almost inconceivable .478 BAA. His last two starts in May were just as bad. With no real reason given for his collapse other than he just “hasn’t had it,” betting him as a favorite is a little hard to swallow right now.

On the other side, Washington is suddenly finding a comfort zone offensively away from home, and they are scoring and playing competitively on their current road trip as a result. Starter John Lannan has been impressively consistent as well, and I think this is not a situation to try and time a reversal of form or a reversion to the mean on any front.

The Nats’ team total over and 5-inning line are looking like they’re worth a shot at this point. If Hernandez does turn it around out of the blue here, any losses from betting against him are probably worth eating.

WEBB DEALING WITH MINOR ISSUES
Brandon Webb may not be his normal lights-out self in this one. He had a notable drop in velocity about a month ago, which has to his credit gotten slowly better in recent starts. Then he got hit with a line drive in his last start, which won’t be enough to put him out of commission here.

For the most part, no one is batting an eyelash about Webb in general as yet, and they probably shouldn’t be, although Webb himself has casually tossed around the dreaded “dead arm” term. But there are enough small warning signs to be concerned, and I’m looking at betting Oakland in some way or doing some kind of Webb fade.

On the other side, Oakland starter Justin Duchscherer has been pitching pretty well, and could keep the Athletics in the game even if Webb is dominant.

Oakland has been playing well and their bats should come alive at Chase Field in this series, while Arizona just lose two out of three at home to Kansas City, which is not a good sign any way you slice it.

But to repeat, I am wary of Webb in this spot, and think that fading him may have value.

Philadelphia's Cole Hamels is one of the top hurlers in the game, no doubt.  But despite being at home tonight, should he be laying his much chalk to the Red Sox?

PHILLY WITH HAMELS MAY BE OVERVALUED
This seems like a bit of a big line for this matchup. The betting odds have settled in the -160s for Philly, and most of that is predicated on Phillies starter Cole Hamels’ ability to dominate.

And dominate, no doubt, he can, but he can also have his off days, and when he does, the huge odds that always accompany his starts can turn into huge losses that offset the money made from backing him on his good days. Hamels has been quite accurately priced this year; even though the Phillies are 9-5 in games he starts, his return on bets is close to even.

Boston has been a bit nicked up recently, but Manny Ramirez is not hurt too badly and will probably be back in the lineup for this one. Boston has hit well against lefties this year, and is in fact 10-2 against lefty starters on the season.

Now Hamels is no ordinary lefty starter, that is true. And it doesn’t take a lot of investigation to see that the Phillies have a very dangerous lineup. But this line is still looming large, and Boston might be the side with value here. And because of Hamels’ rep, it might creep even higher as we get closer to game time.

ANGELS HAVE TAKEN THE EARLY BETTING ACTION
The Angels are a bit of an “obvious” play in this one, and the line on the game has moved a notable amount since opening. The Mets are off a Sunday doubleheader and then cross-country travel, only to have to face Angels’ starter Jered Weaver, a guy who is usually very effective at home. I personally did jump on the Angels on the overnights, feeling confident that the line would move in LA’s direction. But I may hedge out of my personal bet on this game if the line creeps much higher.

The Angels’ lineup is not currently as strong as I like it to be when betting a team as this big of a favorite. The potential is there, but as of right now, things are not clicking terribly well. Chone Figgins and Howie Kendrick need to get into their respective grooves, and the power guys need to start putting it together at the same time. Now that Vlad Guerrero and Gary Matthews are starting to come alive, the other big bats are suddenly slumping.

Still, this is a tough spot for the Mets and for their starter Mike Pelfrey as well who has been throwing much better of late, but may be in for a downturn starting here. I think the value that existed with the opening lines is gone, but if the line moves much higher, it will appear on the side of the Mets. I doubt however, that it will move much at this point.

MARQUEE MATCHUP FOR MONDAY: VERLANDER AND LINCECUM
This is a marquee matchup that is drawing a lot of attention.  However, while Giants’ starter Tim Lincecum is in the midst of a Cy Young-contending season, Detroit starter Justin Verlander is going mostly on reputation.

Verlander, though, has not pitched as poorly as his stat lines would suggest. He did have a handful of bad starts at the beginning of the year, and then a handful of unlucky starts, and that is what produced the statistical ugliness that characterizes his numbers to date for 2008.

But his velocity was always good, and for the most part his command and pitches were working. It seemed like it was only a matter of time before he would start to pitch much better, and that does appear to be happening right now. Verlander has had a very good first half of June, and that is likely to continue for the rest of the month, possibly even the rest of the season.

Now, betting on Verlander, it is true, has not been a pleasant experience so far in 2008. Out of 226 starters in 2008, Verlander ranks 226th in money won or lost on betting his starts. That’s right, there is not a single pitcher in the majors as of now you would have lost more money betting blindly on than Verlander. But that is partially due to his big rep causing him to have inflated lines, and partially due to the Tigers in general being an underachieving team this year. In this spot, at close to even money against the mediocre Giants, it may be a different story for Verlander value-wise.

DUKE LOOKS TO BE IMPROVING
This is an interesting game from a capping perspective. Pirates’ starter Zach Duke is suddenly pitching well, somewhat reminiscent of his auspicious debut in the majors in 2005 which, needless to say, he has not been able to duplicate since. The key to it all for Duke is his sinker, which was working well in his last two starts. What is his fate likely to be on Saturday? It’s not entirely clear.

But if Duke is once again good, the Pirates should be in good shape to win. Baltimore starter Radhames Liz has been ok in his first two starts in the majors this year, but that mediocrity may have been a bit of a mirage. He was not terribly impressive in the minors this year, and I see him as always vulnerable in the bigs. The betting odds may be overreacting a bit to those two decent starts putting Baltimore as a modest but clear favorite around -130.

The Orioles have become a team with some fight in them, which is impressive, but if Liz gets hit and Duke’s sinker is working again, another comeback will be a tough assignment.

LEE LOOKING TO BOUNCE BACK
Where is Cliff Lee headed? Is he about to descend further, rebound back into Cy Young form, or plateau into non-dominant decency? That’s the big question, and it would probably be a bit premature to write him off as a non-Cy Young contender just yet.

He has had a run of so-so starts, but to give him a bit of a break they were mostly on the road, and some were quite tough assignments. His ERA is admittedly over 6.00 over his last five starts; but settling to 3.00 ERA form with a bunch of seven-inning shutout starts mixed in, as long as he stays healthy, is what I most expect to happen.

The Padres, though, are not the ideal choice for Lee to return to dominance against, as their bats have come to life a bit recently, and will probably continue to do so throughout their interleague road trip.

San Diego starter Cha Seung Baek is scrappy and can usually keep his team within striking distance, which makes him attractive as a big underdog. If the line climbs higher, I may consider a play on San Diego.

ROYALS CAN’T BUY A ROAD WIN
Kansas City is a weak team, and usually a good fade on the road against winning teams, even as a big underdog. The one thing that gives me pause here is that taking Randy Johnson on four days rest at such a big line has been a risky thing to do in years past. As he has gotten older, Johnson has typically fared much better on more rest than four days, although so far this year that has not been the case. But Arizona’s bats have cooled off a bit, and Luke Hochevar has good potential, even if he is not there yet.

The Royals, though, are 2-14 over their last 16 on the road, and looking over their lineup it is not hard to see why. There’s just not much there.

A play on the Diamondbacks probably still has value at the big line near -170 where it settled in on the overnight, but unless the line moves down, which it probably won’t, that value is probably small.

SANTANA CONTINUES TO CRUISE AT HOME
Ervin Santana’s career-spanning dominance at home at Angel Stadium has not slipped one bit in 2008. He has won over 70% of his decisions at home in his career, and this year he is once again 3-1 at home, with top-notch peripherals. In light of that, getting him at around -160 at home against anyone looks like a good deal.

Atlanta will be countering with top prospect Charlie Morton making his big league debut. Morton has done well in the minors, and made some lights-out starts down there. But the bigs is a different matter, and it would take unusual composure for him to not miss a beat in this spot.

Chone Figgins has returned to the Angels’ lineup, and that is a big boost for them. Table setters key their offensive production, and Figgins is one of the best in the game. He may not be ready to go right out of the gate, but on Friday he reached base in three out of four plate appearances, which was promising.

Chipper Jones is expected to be back in the lineup for Atlanta, but the Angels still have the clear edge here.

PADRES LOOKING COMPETITIVE AS A DOG
Padres’ starter Josh Banks has done stunningly well in his brief time so far in the bigs, and even though those performances have come in hitter-friendly parks and/or against lesser lineups, it’s still been a significant run for him. Cleveland has a decent lineup, but not one too fearsome, and now with leading hitter Victor Martinez going on the DL it is even further from fearsome. I think Banks will have a solid start here.

Cleveland starter Jeremy Sowers has struggled in the majors for the past two seasons after a promising debut in 2006 and he may be vulnerable here. San Diego’s lineup is showing some life, and should gain a benefit on the road here in Cleveland. I’m look at San Diego as a possible live dog in this spot.

DUMATRAIT HUMMING, BURRES SPUTTERING
Orioles’ starter Brian Burres was cruising through a decent season until he turned a stark corner in late May and suffered though a horrific stretch. He is now going on a bit of extra rest, and it’s not clear if that will help him at all. But there haven’t been any reports of physical ailments with him, so it could. Still, I’m not sure it’s a good idea to arbitrarily pick a spot for him to return to form, and other than the extra rest, I don’t see anything to indicate he’ll be back in business here.

Pirates’ starter Phil Dumatrait, on the other hand, has been perfecting his assortment of pitches, and it has resulted in a run of quality outings. Things look to be going well for him, and although Baltimore does have some decent bats in their lineup, and bats that tend to be more decent against lefties at that, Dumatrait should be able to command this game if his form holds. He is pitching with confidence and getting a good amount of ground ball outs, so the Pirates should have a good chance of being in it for a win in the late innings.

LOWE ON A HIGH, DODGERS ON A LOW
The Dodgers and Derek Lowe both have been pretty topsy-turvy this year, and coming into this game the Dodgers as a team are on a downswing while Lowe himself is coming in pitching very well. But both seem to have the tendency to change without warning. Lowe has sailed through his last four starts, and he has a great career record against Detroit in general. But that makes me nervous for this game, especially on the road.

The Dodgers have a pretty solid team to my eye in general, but they are in an extended slump, having lost 14 out of their last 20 games, and they are dealing with a few significant injuries and suspensions. Matt Kemp, one of the better bats in the order and the team leader in RBIs, will be notably out for this game, due to a suspension.

Tigers’ starter Armando Galarraga has pitched quite well, but not quite dominantly, and the Tigers as a team have been notorious underachievers this year. Still, they are generally winning on their current homestand, having won five out of seven so far, and the line for this game is not too big, so I think they may be worth a play here, considering how unsteady LA is right now.

After having lost the first two games to St. Louis in their current series, Thursday I think is the right time to go for a bet on Cincinnati, and I’ll be doing that with their modest home favorite line of about -130 that the betting odds have deemed appropriate.

St. Louis is without Albert Pujols, but that didn’t matter at all on Wednesday as the other capable bats in their lineup were able to step up and produce well in the hitter-friendly ballpark in Cincy. This was not a surprise to me, and in fact I did have a bet on the Cards as a good-sized dog yesterday. On Thursday however, my primary handicapping factor for choosing the Reds is what I believe could be vulnerability with St. Louis’ starter Joel Pineiro.

Pineiro is making his first start back from the 15-day DL, and while his injury was not arm-related, his timing and mechanics could easily be off, as he will not be having any rehab starts before taking the mound. This is not a huge deal in and of itself, but Pineiro can be vulnerable at all times anyway, and he does rely on a bit of finesse and trickery which has a relatively small margin for error. If his pinpoint mechanics suffer in this one, the Reds big lefty bats, which are probably a bit frustrated at their lack of winning lately, will be able to have a big day.

Cincinnati starter Bronson Arroyo is actually a similar pitcher to Pineiro, and like Pineiro is very likely to have a shut-down start or get crushed on any given day. Betting on a team with Arroyo as the starter is always a bit of a risky proposition, especially when he is facing a lively lineup such as St. Louis’. It’s never a surprise when an Arroyo-led team enters the second half of the game with a five-run deficit. But Arroyo can also be effective, and I’m willing to take a risk with him here, all things considered.

The Reds have only scored two runs in the first two games of this series, but make no mistake, they have some powerful bats in their lineup. I think it’s worth a bet that they will rebound a bit on Thursday, so my bet will be on the Reds -130 to avoid the home sweep.

WASHINGTON IN A PATHETIC FUNK
In case you hadn’t noticed, Washington is having a hard time winning recently. I mean a real hard time.

They just got swept, at home, by San Francisco, one of the weakest teams in the league besides the Nationals themselves. And their offensive production is truly futile; other than an anomalous 10-run outburst in the second game of a doubleheader a few days ago, the Nats are struggling to score more than once a game.

Pittsburgh starter Paul Maholm, while not exactly dominant, can be effective, particularly against weaker lineups and at home. He did get hit hard by Washington the first time he faced them this year, which was somewhat of a surprise, although Maholm is not so good that a shelling is ever out of the question.

But he should fare better in this one and Tim Redding, starting on the other side for the Nats, is reverting pretty solidly back to his mean of sub-mediocrity, so the Pirates should be able to score a few and put themselves in good position to win.

This line has moved considerably since its opening in the -130s, and if it keeps moving, as I expect it will, the value will disappear. Still, until it gets into the -150s, I still think Pittsburgh is comfortably the right side in this one.

IFFY STARTING PITCHING IN CINCY
The St. Louis-Cincinnati game is an intriguing matchup in many respects. I am not at all convinced that Reds’ starter Homer Bailey is in any way ready to be in the majors, and his last start against Philly was worse than it may look at first glance with the 2.84 ERA attached to it. Still, Bailey may be no worse off than St. Louis starter Mitchell Boggs, who was pretty good in general in the minors this year, but not necessarily ready to handle Cincinnati’s assault of lefty sluggers at Great American Park.

If this game does turn into a shootout, the Reds should have the upper hand, and the line in the -120s the betting odds are giving them is probably a little low. I’ll be waiting for line movements and lineup announcements and looking to bet some combo of overs and run lines here.

OSWALT’S STRUGGLES REFLECTED IN LINE
Few people would have predicted that a Seth McClung/Roy Oswalt showdown in June in Houston would see the Astros as only a -130s range favorite, but that’s what we’ve got here. Which Oswalt will show up for this one – the 7 IP, 3 ER one, or the 6 IP, 6 ER one? Who knows, but if Oswalt is not in decline, he needs to start proving it soon.

Still, I think Houston is a bit underrated at this line. Oswalt remains a guy who has the capability of crafting quality starts, as borderline as they may be, and McClung is having problems coming up with the stamina needed to go deep into games as a starter. McClung is probably better suited to relief work, and the Astros’ lively bats could easily get to him for a big inning at some point in this game if he weakens a bit.

The Brewers’ lineup is still about average, and unless Oswalt has some kind of injury that is contributing to his struggles, he should be able to handle them reasonably effectively. If the game is close in the late innings, Houston should have a decided edge.

WANG TRYING TO RIGHT HIS SHIP
What’s wrong with Chien-Ming Wang? No one’s quite sure, although reports say it’s purely a mechanical issue, and one similar to those he has had in the past. So he’s been in the bullpen, watching video, etc. etc. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he fixed things overnight, but until he does, I have to assume the bad outings will continue.

Oakland starter Dana Eveland has been having problems of his own lately, and while he doesn’t have near the track record of Wang, he has also only been struggling for two starts now.

So to my eyes, the starting pitching matchup is a bit of a wash, which makes Oakland’s home dog line in the +110 range look somewhat attractive. Still, you get the sense that Wang is more likely to have a good start than Eveland here, so I will probably lay off this one considering all the major uncertainties involved.

There’s not a whole lot that jumped out at me on Monday’s small MLB card, but one game I will be taking a shot with is the Angels over Tampa Bay as a moderately-sized home favorite.

The Rays may be wearing a bit after their tumultuous series in Boston and then a grueling run in the heat of Texas. They come into Los Angeles without closer Troy Percival, and about to deal with a number of suspensions. I’m not sure they will too geared up for a good game coming in to face Angels’ starter Joe Saunders, one of the toughest lefties in the league, especially when he’s pitching at home.

Tampa Bay doesn’t fare too well against lefties in general, but going up against Saunders at home will present them with a particularly steep challenge. Saunders has been consistently excellent at home this year, as he has tended to be throughout his career, and the Angels have won five out of his six home starts this year so far. There’s no reason I can see to think he won’t be his normal self for this start, and if he is, that spells tough times for the Tampa bats.

On the other side, the Angels admittedly do not present an imposing figure to beat. Their lineup is on the weak side, and they still have a few top hitters out with injuries. Howie Kendrick has returned, but the Angels do still field a relatively modest lineup in general.

But they are starting to play well, scrapping out wins, and in fact before Sunday’s extra-inning loss to Oakland, the Angels had won seven in a row. None of them by more than two runs, but they were wins nonetheless.

I don’t think the Angels are a well-managed team, particularly in their handling of closer Francisco Rodriguez. And erratic Tampa starter Edwin Jackson can be hard to hit when he’s on his game. But all things considered, I do think there is value on the side of the Angels at the current line around -150. If Saunders is able to have his typical good start where he goes deep into the game and gives up 2 or fewer runs, the Angels should again be able to cobble together enough runs to win. So I’ll take a shot on Monday with the Angels -150.

WANG TO BE AVOIDED FOR NOW
What’s wrong with Chien-Ming Wang? It’s not clear. He is supposedly battling a “mild calf strain,” but it could be more than that. Toronto doesn’t figure to push him too much, but then neither did Seattle in his last start at home, and he struggled against them.

The bailout Wang was the beneficiary of in his last two starts may not come this time with solid Dustin McGowan starting for the Blue Jays. If Wang were in his normal form, this Yankee line around -150 would be a great deal, but for now there are too many serious question marks for me to consider giving it a shot.

PHILLIES MAY BE JUSTIFIABLE AS A HUGE FAVE
Cole Hamels has had two starts this year where the Philadelphia money line closed at -200 or higher. Wanna guess what Philly’s record is in those two games? Oh and two, naturally. And having gotten hit hard in his last two starts, it’s hard to imagine that there’s value with the Philly line currently sitting around -225.

Still, Hamels has been absolutely lights-out in three lifetime starts against the Reds, which stands to reason a bit considering how lefty-heavy Cincy’s lineup is.

Things are looking even uglier pitching-wise for the Reds, however. Homer Bailey, as much potential as he may have, was not ready for prime time in 2007, and all signs are pointing to him not being ready right now either. He has not done particularly well in the minors this year, and his most recent starts have been the shakiest. Coming into Citizens Bank Park to face the Phils’ assortment of quality big league hitters is not likely to make things better for him.

I will probably wait to check the line movement for this game, and if the Philly line dips below -200, I may well bite. I’m also considering a run line play on Philly due to high volatility with Hamels.

PUJOLS, ANKIEL LIKELY OUT FOR DOUBLEHEADER
Check the lineups in the St. Louis/Washington doubleheader; there may be some good bets kicking around. Albert Pujols was out on Wednesday, and Tony La Russa has said Pujols will sit out on Thursday as well, although these kinds of things do sometimes change at the last minute. But Rick Ankiel is due to sit out Thursday, too, and there’s not a whole lot of offensive firepower left on the Cardinals after those two.

One of these games is likely to see a pretty chintzy lineup get sent out by the Cardinals, and if that happens I’ll be looking to bet accordingly. Washington, it should be noted, always sends out a pretty chintzy lineup, even when all their top guys are in.

TOP STARTERS MAY GET HIT IN TEXAS
On Tuesday, Cleveland and Texas combined to score 19 runs, which qualifies that game as the lowest scoring of the week so far at Rangers Ballpark. Despite the fact that C.C. Sabathia and Kevin Millwood are the starters on Thursday, the total of 10 seems to be hanging mighty low.

Interestingly, it has actually been bet down since the line opened. SBRlines.com shows that it actually opened at 10½ at BookMaker, and that the line on the under 10 moved from +105 to -120 at The Greek.

I think the over is a good bet here though, and I will probably bet it, although how heavily I’m not sure, and I will definitely wait to check the lineups and weather before pulling the trigger. But both Sabathia and Millwood can get hit hard as we have seen at times this year, and if the weather conditions are as oppressively hot as they have been all this week in Texas, one starter getting hit could result in the other team getting close to the whole 10 all by itself.

STAN’S RODEO CREAM MAY OR MAY NOT HEAL BLISTERS
Handicapping the Braves has been all about handicapping the blisters of their starting pitchers lately. They have been using a product called “Stan’s Rodeo Cream” (I’m not making this up) to try to heal the blisters that have been afflicting starters Jorge Campillo, Jo-Jo Reyes and Thursday’s starter Jair Jurrjens.

The stuff worked wonders for Reyes, but was less successful for Campillo. How Jurrjens will respond is anyone’s guess. Jurrjens is a very talented pitcher when he is healthy, but his last two starts have not been good, and that is probably due to the blisters, although he won’t use that as an excuse.

With Atlanta’s bullpen problems, Florida’s lively lineup, and Florida starter Ricky Nolasco pitching better of late, I will probably look at some kind of bet on Florida if I bet this game at all. But unless you have an in with the Braves’ training staff, I would recommend treading lightly on this one.

On Wednesday in MLB, I think there will be a pretty significant starting pitching disparity in the Cincinnati/Philadelphia game featuring Edinson Volquez against Brett Myers, and as such I will be backing the Reds in this one. But for a variety of reasons, I’m going to be taking the 5-inning line instead of the full game line of the Reds.

Myers is having a rough going on the mound this year. Even when he winds up with a good start in the stat line, it is still usually one where he struggled. Some of his peripheral stats are decent, but in general he is proving to be consistently hittable, and against a team loaded with lefty power hitters as the Reds are he is likely to be especially vulnerable to the long ball.

Myers hasn’t given up a home run in three straight starts now, but I think that streak will end today with a bit of a thud, as I expect him to yield at least two to Cincy’s power bats. Myers’ last start where he reached double digits in strikeouts against the lively Florida Marlins lineup was impressive, but he was also pitching with a big lead in that game, which can make things easier on a struggling starter. This game does not figure to unfold that way, and I think Myers will be vulnerable to a big inning in the early part of the game.

Reds’ starter Volquez has been truly impressive in his consistent excellence this year. He figured out how to be successful in the majors in a big way, and so far this year in his 11 starts he has not given up more than two runs in any of them. That is remarkable, and he has done it against some quality offenses while pitching in a hitter-friendly home park. The Phillies have some big bats in their lineup, but if Volquez’ form holds, he should be able to handle them as well.

I am going with the 5-inning line here however because Volquez does not go particularly deep into games, usually giving six innings. And if that happens here today, three innings of Phillie bats facing the Reds’ bullpen is an idea that scares me. So I am willing to take lesser odds and go with the 5-inning line, and not have to worry about that. If the Reds come out of the fifth inning with only a small lead, having money on them to win the whole thing will be an uncomfortable spot to be in.

The betting odds across the market have this line at about +100, which is only a modest reduction from the full game line. So I will go with the Reds 5-innings +100 on Wednesday.

On Tuesday in MLB, amidst all the attention focused on the starts of Joba Chamberlain, Pedro Martinez and Dontrelle Willis, I think one game that presents solid line value is the Kansas City/Chicago White Sox matchup pitting Zack Greinke against Gavin Floyd. I’ll be taking a shot with Floyd and the White Sox as modest home faves in the -125 range.

Royals’ starter Greinke has enjoyed an impressive comeback season this year, without question, and I have backed him on numerous occasions with profitable results. But 2008 has also been a coming out year for White Sox’ starter Floyd, a guy who was for a long time touted as having great potential, but who was nevertheless a flop in the big leagues until now. But things have really come together for Floyd this year, so much so that he seems to flirt with a no-hitter every other home start he makes, and getting him as a small home favorite against the lukewarm KC lineup looks to have small but solid value to me.

Greinke, for his part, has come a bit down to earth recently after a dominant string of starts to open the season. He is still pitching well, but there are chinks beginning to show in his armor. His ERA and hit totals are on the rise – only a bit, but significantly so nonetheless. A glance at his splits this year for April and May tell the story. While May was still a month where he was a quality starter, and where he did put up some quality peripheral stats, his overall performance was more pedestrian than you would like to see when backing KC on the road at the line the betting odds are currently giving.

The Royals have now won two in a row after their abject 12-game losing streak that closed out May, but their fundamental problems as a team remain. They have been swept in their last two road series, the first against Boston, but the next at hands of the less formidable Toronto. The White Sox are not quite a powerhouse of a team themselves, despite leading the AL Central, but with Floyd on the mound and a decent bullpen backing him up, I think they are the side with value here. So my pick for Tuesday is the White Sox -125.

BRAVES DOMINANT AT HOME
Well it looks like Jo-Jo Reyes’ blister has healed. That was an impressive outing last week against Milwaukee, and he didn’t even reach 100 pitches. The Marlins aren’t winning on the road right now, and they aren’t hitting lefties well in general either. All signs are pointing to an Atlanta win here.

Bolstering this is the fact that Florida starter Scott Olsen appears to be struggling in a significant way right now. He’s had four straight iffy starts in a row, and his velocity is down. A strong start for him here would be somewhat of a surprise.

The betting odds for this game have already made a strong move in the direction of Atlanta. SBRlines.com shows the Braves having opened at -130 at both BookMaker and The Greek on the overnights, while the morning odds settled in around -150 across the market. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was more movement in Atlanta’s direction by game time.

The Braves, as they often are, have been great at home this year, standing at 22-7 right now. And that’s been a profitable run for bettors as well, as StatFox is showing a +12.6 unit profit on the Braves at home.

GORZELANNY HITTING HARD TIMES
Adam Wainwright, after hitting a two-start bump in mid-May, seems to be fully back in the groove again. He’s had two vintage strong starts in a row, and looks healthy and powerful on the mound. Unless something unexpected afflicts Wainwright, the Pirates’ mediocre lineup should have trouble scoring.

That is not a promising thought, because something strange and serious seems to be wrong with Pittsburgh starter Tom Gorzelanny. Once one of the better starters in the league, Gorzelanny now gets in trouble every other inning he pitches. The strange part is that no one is pointing to anything physical as the cause of his troubles, and for now it has been labeled “psychological.”

Well whatever it is, you don’t need sabermetrics to tell you that 26 strikeouts and 37 walks in 46 innings is ugly. It seems to be particularly pronounced on the road, and it seems to be getting worse, and if it continues much longer, he’ll be in the minors.

For this game, who knows how Gorzelanny will fare. But even if he bounces back, Wainwright could easily out pitch him anyway. The line has curiously budged a bit in favor of Pittsburgh, but I see this as an unlikely win for the Pirates. Due to Gorzelanny’s uncertainty and volatility, a bet on the St. Louis run line might have more value than the money line.

LAFFEY COULD BE IN FOR SOME TROUBLE
Cleveland starter Aaron Laffey has been top-notch in a slew of starts at home, which probably explains why the Indians opened as a decent-sized road favorite despite not being a particularly good road team in general this year. But I think that going into Texas will present Laffey with new challenges as a starter that he may not respond well to. This game could easily become a classic Ranger Stadium shootout, and if it does, the Rangers should have the advantage.

BookMaker opened with Texas at +145, and the morning line sees them sitting at around +120. I agree with this movement, as I don’t see a huge edge with Cleveland here. Rangers’ starter Doug Mathis is no prize, to be sure, and taking the over while selling a run or so might be the best play in this game. But I think the temptation to take the Indians based on Laffey’s success to date is misguided.

On Wednesday in MLB, I’m going to take a shot with the white-hot Tampa Bay Rays as a moderate home favorite over the Yankees. Their strong play is sure to cool off at some point soon, but I think it will continue on for at least one more game.

Tampa Bay, only recently the doormat of the American League, is now, believe it or not, in first place in the AL. And they are doing it with the same bunch of young players who populated their roster in the lean times of the past couple of years. But those young players always had potential, and they now seem to have matured into a legitimately winning crew who should contend for the pennant down to the wire.

Tampa has now won six in a row, and eleven home games in a row, and with James Shields starting here against the nicked up and struggling Yankees, a 12th consecutive win is looking like a good bet at only -135 or so.

Part of the reason this line is so reasonable is the fact that on his career, Shields has a terrible record against the Yanks. But those starts came against a different Yankee team than the one he will face on Wednesday, and I think he will rebound with a dominant performance. Shields is notoriously competitive, as evidenced by his last start. After having gotten shelled by the Red Sox at Fenway, Shields was reportedly angry all week after, and looking to get back to business with a good start. He came back with a one-hit shutout that took him only 92 pitches, and I think he may be looking for further revenge in this one against the Yankees. He is no doubt aware of his past against them, and I expect him to be unusually focused and determined once again.

On the other side, Yankees’ starter Mike Mussina has altered his approach a bit, with impressive results. He is pitching quite effectively, but he does not have lights-out capability, which he may well need in order to give the Yanks a good shot at a win. A 6- or 7-inning start where he gives up two or three runs, as solid as that may be, may well still have the Yanks behind the 8-ball in the late innings.

The Yankees are fielding a mediocre lineup right now, and will be hard-pressed to put up a challenge to Shields if he is cruising again. So I see value with a play on Tampa Bay -130.

REYES HAS BLISTER
Atlanta starter Jo-Jo Reyes has a lot of potential, but he struggles mightily with in-game consistency and high pitch counts. He had to leave his last start because of a blister on his pitching hand, and it’s dubious that it’s completely healed after only four rest days. Reyes, of all people, is not the kind of guy who is likely to be able to overcome something like that.

With the Braves off a doubleheader and likely without Mark Teixeira, while the Phillies are rested after an off day and with Jimmy Rollins back in the lineup, things are looking in Philly’s favor here.

MORE FIREWORKS TO COME IN TEXAS
The total for this game opened at 9 and went to 9½, and it still may be sitting considerably too low. Seattle, which was having horrific problems scoring at home, exploded at hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark. They’ll likely be at it again here, as Kason Gabbard and his ugly K/BB ratio promises to be an easier task for the Mariners’ bats than Vicente Padilla.

Felix Hernandez, for his part, looks like he’s settling into a groove of hittable mediocrity for the near future, as he often has throughout his career thus far. I don’t see a good start by either starter as likely here, and after that, the parade of sub-par relievers should again be vulnerable. A play on the over here is looking good to me, with the selling of runs to get better odds also probably warranted.

FIREWORKS POSSIBLE IN MILWAUKEE
This is another game where the total has risen considerably since opening, and it may still be too low. The Dodgers have a lively offense, despite Rafael Furcal’s injury and Andruw Jones’ health, and they find ways to produce. Their high-scoring games in LA belie the fact that Dodger Stadium is actually thought of as a pitcher-friendly park.

Miller Park, on the other hand, can be quite hitter-friendly when the roof is closed, as it usually is around this time. The Brewers’ lineup has been underachieving all year, but they do look like they may be coming out of it now and if they do, they could do so in a major way.

Both starting pitchers here can be good at times, but can also get shelled, which they have been getting of late. The total at 9 I think is more likely than not to be eclipsed.

KC A SMALL FAVORITE WITH GREINKE
It’s getting to be a broken record, but it’s true; when Zack Greinke is on, no lineup can get to him. He’s been on all year, although he is showing signs that he may face some trouble in the future. He is starting to give up home runs, and his fly ball/ground ball ratio is not where it should be for him. Still, until he does start getting hit hard, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

This game features underachieving Detroit, struggling Nate Robertson, and a surprisingly low home favorite line for KC. It may be worth a decent shot with a bet on Greinke to continue his excellence on the mound.

On Monday in MLB, I’m going to take a shot with St. Louis on the run line over Milwaukee. The betting odds for the sides of this game look a bit suspicious to me. St. Louis appears to have a major edge in starting pitching here, but SBRlines.com shows all the major books hanging lines around -115 for the Cardinals. I’m going to ignore the fact that the line seems off to me, and play it anyway.

Adam Wainwright has been top-notch and consistent so far this season, and even his much-discussed 127-pitch start to close out April didn’t cause a blip at all. He has already faced Milwaukee twice this year, once at home and once on the road, with identical results – two runs in seven innings.

Wainwright is not the kind of pitcher a team can easily make adjustments for after having seen him once or twice, and if Milwaukee does have only two runs through seven innings this time once again, things will not be looking good for the Brewers in general. The Cards will have some capable bats in their lineup (including Wainwright), and Dave Bush has proven once again to be very hittable this year. It will be a surprise if the Cards don’t have a multiple-run lead in the late innings when the bullpens get involved.

Milwaukee’s hitters have not shown themselves to be too resilient when down late in games this year, and they are underachieving as a team in general. They should probably be considerably better than .500, but their entire lineup is mired in a collective slump. The home run production of both Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun is way down, and several of their key hitters in the starting lineup are hitting under .200. Whatever the reason, it’s not likely to change against Wainwright.

Because of a questionable bullpen with St. Louis, and a good amount of volatility with Dave Bush and the offenses involved, I think a play with the run line has more merit than one on the money line. So I’ll take a shot with the Cards to hit Bush and Wainwright to have another stellar game and bet St. Louis +140 to win by two.

On Wednesday in MLB, I’m going to take a shot with Kansas City as a smallish home favorite of -120 over the Angels, despite KC’s historically poor record against the Angels. And my pick is mostly due to Zack Greinke being the starting pitcher for the Royals.

The Angels have a truly impressive team this year, no doubt. They are in first place in the American League, and I think that is where they will find themselves at the end of the year as well. They are 12-5 on the road, and have done it all with their giant in the middle of the order, Vladimir Guerrero, having significantly underperformed to date. Further, the Angels are 17-4 against KC over the last five years.

But this all just goes to underscore how much of an equalizer I think Greinke can be when he is on his game, which it seems like he will reliably be most of the time this year barring injury. When Greinke is on, as it the case with most elite pitchers, it doesn’t make a big difference where he is pitching or what lineup he is facing. Give him the Yankees or Oakland; he’s likely to put up mostly zeros, with an odd run thrown in once in a while. If Greinke has that kind of start here, the KC line of -120 should be a good bet.

While most of this pick is predicated on Greinke’s ability to get anyone out, it doesn’t hurt that a few of the Angels’ top table setters are not in their lineup presently. Both Chone Figgins and Howie Kendrick, normally the electric one and two hitters in the order, are out with minor injuries, being replaced by the much more pedestrian tandem of Gary Matthews and Erick Aybar. This also leaves the bottom of the Angels’ order, normally a reservoir of productivity, thin with untested rookies and weaker bats.

Angels’ starter Jered Weaver is a capable and sturdy presence on the mound, and KC does not field a terribly impressive lineup, it is true. But the Royals were able to get to Weaver a bit their first time facing him this year in April, and again, if Greinke is going good, KC won’t need much to put them in position to win. So I’ll take a shot with the Royals -120 given these circumstances.

PADRES STRUGGLE TO SCORE
The Padres/Braves matchup on Tuesday is an interesting one. For all of San Diego’s complaining about Petco Park stifling their offense, they don’t hit terribly well on the road either. They have stud Adrian Gonzales, two .300 hitters with little power, and that’s it. That does not bode well for them going up against Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens, a ground ball pitcher who has been consistently effective so far this year.

Chris Young will valiantly try to keep the Pads in the game, and he may well succeed. But there’s not looking like a lot of run production in store for San Diego in this game, and Young will likely have to be lights out to give the Pads the upper hand at the end of this one. I’m considering plays on the Atlanta money line, the under, and the San Diego team total under.

MORE SCORING AT COORS
Predicting vulnerability in Mark Redman may not be earth-shattering, but what else can you say about him? He’s pitching to keep his spot in the rotation and possibly his spot in the majors, but he’ll have a tough time against St. Louis’ capable lineup in newly lively Coors. Cards starter Braden Looper is up for a so-so outing himself, so I’m looking at taking another Over in Colorado here.

QUALITY STARTERS SQUARE OFF IN CHICAGO
Another interesting game on the card is the Minnesota/White Sox game which will feature two good young starters in Nick Blackburn and Gavin Floyd going up against two mediocre offenses. Blackburn has pitched decently twice against the White Sox this year, and I expect Floyd to have a good game as well coming off of extended rest. The Under 9 in this game looks to me like a reasonable play with small but confident edge.

PONSON RIDES AGAIN
Sidney Ponson’s strong start against Kansas City last week truly surprised me. I’m rooting for him in my heart, but in my head I still feel he’s a risky bet. To his credit though, his strikeouts are up and his walks are down, and going into Safeco and facing Seattle should be an easier task for him than his first two starts of the year.

Miguel Batista is solid, and the betting odds look to me to have this game rated about right. I probably won’t bet it, but I’ll be watching Ponson for signs, good or bad.

MORE LOW SCORING AT OAKLAND
As with Monday’s game, Tuesday’s Baltimore/Oakland game is again not likely to see a lot of runs crossing the plate. There’s just not a lot of life in these bats, and while Tuesday’s starters may be a bit less dependable than those from Monday’s game, the total is still hanging reasonably high, all things considered.

Oakland is showing real trouble dealing with capable lefties, and Orioles’ starter Brian Burres is just that. He’s the kind of guy who can look vulnerable against strong lineups, but when facing weaker lineups in pitcher-friendly parks, definitely has the ability to come out of most innings without giving up any runs.

With Baltimore going as a decent-sized dog, another play on their 5-inning line and/or their plus run line may have value.

DODGERS LOOK PROMISING AGAIN
The Dodgers handled the Mets fairly easily on Monday night, and Tuesday is looking to have similar things in store.  The Mets are struggling at the plate, and Carlos Beltran’s slump is key. He may be breaking out of it as he is 4-for-11 in his past three games, but he still has not driven in a run in seven straight games now, and that is not something you want to see out of your cleanup hitter.

The Dodgers’ lineup is as usual balanced and capable, and with the starting pitching matchup roughly even, LA is looking like a decent bet to me here at home as a modest favorite around -130.

TIGERS’ FLOUNDERING CONTINUES
The betting odds for the opener in the Boston/Detroit series have the game pegged as a toss up, but I’m not so sure about that.  The Red Sox look to me to have small edges in all areas for this one – starting pitching, bullpen, lineup, and mental state.

The Sox are not the same team on the road as they are at home, that’s true. But the Tigers are starting to look like they are going to be the head case team of 2008. Their struggles may not be easily solved, and I see a lot of .500 play in their future consisting of explosive home run-based blowout wins surrounded by listless losses.

Tigers’ manager Jim Leyland said, “There will be changes (Monday).” But Detroit’s formula for this year is set, and it’s not looking like a reliable one over the long term.

Additionally, Daisuke Matsuzaka is showing signs of improvement while Jeremy Bonderman’s BB/K ratio is troubling, and does not point to future success for him. The total of 9 also seems a tick low to me.

SCORING IS UP AT COORS
St. Louis starter Joel Piniero has thrown two strong starts in a row, but be careful of backing him here. He has never pitched at Coors’ before, and he is not the type of pitcher likely to do well there.

By the way, the juice might be back in the balls at Coors now, as five out of the last seven games played there have hit double digits in scoring with an average of over 13 runs per game scored in that span. With both lineups involved here decent, and both starters and bullpens involved questionable, the total of 10 might be hanging a bit low.

If I do take St. Louis in any game in this series, it will almost certainly be on the run line. Volatility should be high, and needing Jason Isringhausen to get a save at Coors in order to cash a ticket is not a position I want to be in.

IMPRESSIVE SCHERZER TO MAKE FIRST MLB START
Those who loved and lost with Johnny Cueto in April, take heart: Introducing Max Scherzer. The newest flame-throwing phenom of the month is looking very promising, and with the betting odds putting him and Arizona as a favorite of only -140, there may be value there.

Scherzer does seem to be the real deal, and he may soon become the talk of MLB. He throws in the upper 90s and ices hitters with a dominant slider, like a right-handed Francisco Liriano circa 2006. His K/BB/IP ratio in Triple-A this year was stunning, and based on his debut in the majors last week against Houston where he struck out seven and walked none in four and a third innings, big league hitters may not fare much better.

Crafty and unflappable vet Jamie Moyer is not the ideal guy to have opposing Scherzer, but the Diamondbacks do provide good insurance with a strong lineup and a capable bullpen. All in all, this might be the cheapest price we will see with Scherzer for a while, and in a few weeks we might look back at this line with Arizona at -140 as a substantial gift.

SANTANA FARING BETTER ON THE ROAD
Perhaps a bit under the radar, Ervin Santana has been good on the road this year, in stark contrast to his notorious difficulties on the road in his career to date. And almost poetically, each of his three road starts this year has addressed his major areas of road weakness: Indoors, at Minnesota; in the hitter-friendly park at Texas; and when facing a strong home run hitting lineup at Detroit.

Kansas City’s lineup is ok, but presents a lesser challenge than any Santana has faced so far this year. That of course may ironically set him up for a fall, but with the Angels fielding a balanced and quality lineup this year and Royals’ starter Brett Tomko struggling pretty badly, a play on the Angels’ run line might have merit. The total of 9½ at even money is also looking decent to me.

LOW SCORING AT OAKLAND
The Baltimore/Oakland game is not likely to see a whole lot of runs crossing the plate. Despite Oakland’s occasional explosions of runs on the road, they are not too formidable of a team offensively, particularly at home. They scored three runs in each of their games against Texas, and are likely to get about that here.

Orioles’ starter Garrett Olson needs to control his walks, which is a traditional strength of patient Oakland lineups, but if he can there won’t be much for the Athletics to manufacture for themselves. Dana Eveland is well-suited to face lineups like Baltimore’s at parks like McAfee, and I see a quality start from him as quite likely. Due to low volatility, a play on the +1½ run line for Baltimore may be a smart move.

TEXAS AND SEATTLE IFFY AT THE PLATE
In a game similar to the Baltimore/Oakland game, a play on the under and/or a +1½ run line may be best here. Both starters involved should be able to keep the runs to a minimum at spacious Safeco, and neither team is hitting particularly well right now. I could easily see this one going into extra innings tied at 3-3.

Friday's SBRlines.com for MLB show the betting odds for the San Diego/Florida game giving the Marlins modest home favorite status in the -120s. With Florida starter Mark Hendrickson pitching pretty solidly on the year, and San Diego starter Justin Germano looking iffy to me, I think there is decent value on the side of Florida.

There are many small reasons to like Florida in this game, which when taken in aggregate give the Marlins a substantial edge. I do think the Marlins have a small edge in starting pitching for this game. Hendrickson is coming back from offseason Lasik eye surgery, and it seems to have helped him a bit. While not quite dominant, he has been consistently solid this year, keeping Florida in games and never getting hit too hard. With Florida’s quality lineup and bullpen, that has put the Marlins in position to win every game Hendrickson has started so far this year.

Germano, on the other hand, is someone who looks vulnerable when facing good lineups, particularly away from the friendly confines of Petco Park. He started the year off well but has been hit hard his last two starts. In 2007, Germano was very streaky, and if that same pattern holds again in 2008 he is likely in the midst of a down period right now. If he continues to miss over the plate, as he has of late, the Marlins will be well-equipped to take advantage.

Beyond the starting pitching, Florida also has a significant lineup edge on San Diego. The Padres feature stud Adrian Gonzales and not much else. The rest of the lineup is filled with mediocrities and underachievers, and the bottom of the order can be downright ugly. Even Gonzales is less productive against lefties, so things are not looking too promising for the Padres of the offensive end.

Meanwhile the Marlins have a good lineup with some significant punch to it, even when it is at less than full strength, as it was during the Dodger series. But both Josh Willingham and Mike Jacobs could return for this game, which would presumably further increase Florida’s offensive productivity.

Coming off of a home sweep at the hand of the strong Dodgers, the Marlins are sure to be eager to get back on track. The Padres present a far less challenging obstacle, so I’ll take a shot with Florida -130 to open up this series with a win.

Game 5 between Phoenix and San Antonio is sure to be an intense affair on Tuesday night, and I think the total of 197½ is a bit high, despite three out of the four games so far in the series having eclipsed that number.

SBRlines.com shows an opening total of 199 at Bookmaker and The Greek, and got a quick early hit down. That is a significant movement for this game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it got knocked down a few pegs further by game time.

The one game Phoenix has been able to win so far only went to 191, when they were able to hold the Spurs to only 86 points. Phoenix is now playing for their survival, and as such I suspect that they will abandon somewhat their run-and-gun offense of the regular season.

The Spurs, comfortable at home and with a nice two-game lead, will likely try to grind out a win with their classic style, and the Suns will be pushed to oblige, even if they don’t go in already looking to play that style themselves. Even though the Suns are thought of as more successful the higher game scores go, the one truly high-scoring game in this series was also the only one where Phoenix was blown out. I think they understand that a careful, defensive and close game is what they need here to eke out a win.

The Spurs, for their part, do not want this series going back to Phoenix for a Game 6, where they will be at a disadvantage and then face a Game 7 if they lose. A few quotes from Spurs’ guard Manu Ginobili pretty much says it all:

"We know that winning a Game 6 there is going to be really tough. If we don’t, then Game 7 we know is a lottery," Ginobli said.  "We stopped doing the things that gave us results. We let them loose and that’s the worst thing you can do against Phoenix."

So I see a classic Spurs defense-oriented game, likely to go under, with both teams taking every possession deliberately. I’ll take a shot with the Under 197½ in this one.

DUKE GOES FOR A K
Zach Duke’s one home start this year was admittedly his best, and was also his one strong start of the year. So Duke may do well here against a Phillie lineup that can be shut down, particularly on the road. But in general, the picture for Duke is not looking good.

His strikeout ratio has gone markedly down every year in the majors, and he’s now at a point where he’s gone two starts without striking out anyone. Phillies’ starter Adam Eaton is usually quite serviceable on the road against mediocre NL lineups, so all in all, Pittsburgh is looking dubiously rated to me here at close to even money.

WAKEFIELD OWNS THE RAYS
The Boston/Tampa Bay game is a fascinating one from a handicapping perspective, and may offer good value with the side of Boston. Tim Wakefield has dominated the Rays throughout his career, and particularly at Tampa. Even though he did lose his last start there last season, he is still 9-1 at Tropicana in his career, and was still dominant indoors in general last season.

And with Matt Garza making his first start off the DL with only one rehab outing under his belt, Boston may not need Wakefield to be lights-out to get an easy win anyway. The one intangible concern, however, is the fact that the Red Sox have been suffering from the flu as a team of late, and it’s not clear how serious it is at this moment.

MARLINS GOOD AS A BIG DOG
I don’t think Florida should be this big of an underdog against Milwaukee in this situation. The line is likely inflated because Brewers starter Yovani Gallardo had such a strong debut to the season last week.

But while I am as generally impressed with Gallardo as everyone else is, the Marlins are still fielding a strong and winning team right now, and their starter, Scott Olsen, is enjoying a resurgence of late. If Gallardo has a let down after last week, Florida’s lineup will be well able to take advantage.

GREINKE’S PROZAC HELPING
Zack Greinke has always had great talent and potential, and after battling depression in the early part of his career, he came back this season to show true Cy Young-caliber stuff, similar to and every bit as good as Brandon Webb. Now we’ll see how he handles adversity, and if he is able to rebound from off starts or not. If he is, the Kansas City line near even money is a gift. I’m willing to bet a decent amount that he’ll be back in top form in this game.

ST. LOUIS TO COOL OFF HOUSTON
Houston has been healthy and playing well, and they’ve now won five in a row. It’s been a nice run, but it hasn’t come against the most formidable of competition. St. Louis has a solid team this year, and they are usually tough at home. I think Houston will be challenged in this series.

Since Braden Looper became a starter for the Cards, he has been one of those guys who alternates good starts with bad ones. Perhaps with memories of the life of a reliever still lingering in his arm, he finds it hard to put two strong outings in a row together. But when he is going well, he is a very effective starter. If his pattern holds true, he is due for a strong start in this spot.

Astros’ starter Shawn Chacon is the kind of guy St. Louis’ hard-hitting lefties should be able to get to. Adding it all up, St. Louis’ home favorite line in the -120s is looking a bit low to me.

REDS WON’T BE HAPPY IN SF
San Francisco has been a much-maligned team in betting circles so far this year, but they have actually wound up in the middle of the NL West standings, and they are .500 at home. They are able to manufacture runs with speed at the top of the order, and a handful of reasonably productive bats up and down the lineup. In their pitcher-friendly home park, they are competitive when they have a good starter going, which Jonathan Sanchez is.

The circumstances for this game do not favor Cincinnati offensively at all, as both Sanchez and AT&T Park are tough on the kind of hitters the Reds’ lineup is heavy with. I think San Fran has value as a decent-sized home dog in this spot.

Baltimore’s bullpen might be in less than prime shape today. George Sherrill pitched in three out of the four games in the weekend Seattle series that spilled over to Monday, and the Orioles' bullpen may have been overachieving in general to start the year anyway.

The Seattle sweep was nice, and impressive, the Orioles’ lineup may be stronger than initially anticipated. But Texas is looking good as well; I’m leaning towards them in the -140 range here.  I think things may take a turn for the worse for Baltimore now as they go on the road.

Kansas City’s Brian Bannister is continuing impressively this year again. How powerful is the Yanks’ lineup right now? It’s not quite clear. Strong, no doubt, but maybe not completely dominant. This game should be a good test for both Bannister and the Yanks’ offense.

For Oakland, Rich Harden scratched, Chad Gaudin in, Toronto now in the -170 range. I’m leaning towards Toronto anyway. Oakland’s offense is looking pretty anemic, and A.J. Burnett started off the season strong and looks like he should be one of the top AL pitchers in the early going. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see an 8 IP, 1 ER type of outing from Burnett. I like the Blue Jays even at the high number.

Erik Bedard should have a good game today rebounding from his minor hip injury, but Seattle’s bullpen really troubles me. If this game is close, I think Tampa Bay has the edge. If Seattle wins, it’s more likely to be a blowout. I may take Seattle on the run line here, especially considering how volatile (and shaky) Matt Garza is and how the Mariners could break the game open against the Rays' pen even if Garza throws well.

Houston’s Shawn Chacon has always been a volatile starter; sometimes quite good, sometimes awful. St. Louis and Albert Pujols may have a breakout game here. I’m thinking about St. Louis on the run line.

Cincinnati/Milwaukee is a tricky game. Johnny Cueto is the real deal, but Cincy’s lineup is looking pretty weak to me. Some people will no doubt be jumping all over the Reds and Cueto at close to even money here, but I’m not so sure.

Ubaldo Jimenez had a bad spring and a bad first start of the season, with major control problems. He has talent but if he doesn’t solve those issues Atlanta could eat him alive here. I’m liking Atlanta as an underdog in this one. Colorado’s lineup will no doubt wake up at some point, but they haven’t yet, and Jair Jurrjens is looking solid. I’m also looking pretty strongly at the Under 10 in this one, despite Jimenez’ shakiness. Games at Coors have been going under of late, which is no surprise, and I think even if Jimenez struggles again, the Under is still more likely than the Over.

Hard to go against Doug Davis in his last start before cancer surgery, but Chad Billingsley and the Dodgers are looming as quite formidable opposition. Billingsley learned how to be efficient with his pitches as a starter last year, and he may have a strong start in this one. The Dodgers’ lineup hasn’t been too productive yet, but they should be soon. I’m afraid if I bet this game it will have to be against Davis.

The Angels for the first time in a long time are having bullpen problems. Frankie 'K-Rod' Rodriguez is out for this game, and Scot Shields has thrown two days in a row off of an injury. There’s not a whole lot after that. The Angels are a risky bet here despite Ervin Santana being so good at home traditionally and the Angels fielding an impressive lineup right not. I think the Over 8½ may be the best way to go.

I have to like San Diego at close to even money over San Francisco, despite Tim Lincecum starting for the Giants. The Giants just have a terrible lineup, and not a whole lot in the bullpen. Sure Lincecum may have a great game, but he’ll have to be near perfect to give them a good chance to win. I’m leaning towards SD here at these odds. San Fran, that is one pathetic-looking team right now.

Well this is what happens when you ignore your bullpen and overpay a bunch of slowing down veterans. Here’s a quote from manager Jim Leyland: “You get angry if people are going through the motions and if they’re not trying. But that’s not what’s happening.”

To me that says “We really are this bad.”

Boston is recovering from their insane start to the season in Japan, and getting comfortable at home they are in good shape to string wins together. At only -130 they’re looking good to me.

DEPOSED DUKE
The Zach Duke of 2005 is still nowhere to be seen. The one and a half hits per inning Duke of 2007, however, was on full display last Thursday. The Cubs’ big bats will feast on Duke if things continue on course.

Ryan Dempster is no prize himself, but his first start of the year back in the rotation – 6 IP, 2 ER against the strong Milwaukee lineup – was encouraging, even if it was in 40-degree weather with the wind blowing in at Wrigley. Cubs looking good to me at -130.

TRACHSEL IFFY AT AMERIQUEST
Steve Trachsel has always had problems at Ameriquest, which stands to reason considering how many fly ball outs he gets and how few strikeouts he gets. On paper Baltimore is looking pretty vulnerable, but Trachsel and the Orioles do seem to defy the odds more that you’d expect. The Texas money line may be a bit high, the run line is probably a better bet. The Over 10 is looking very tempting.

LOOPER OFF AT NIGHT
Houston and St. Louis have lineups that I think will prove to be two of the NL’s best when all is said and done this year. Braden Looper and Chris Sampson are both proven reliable starters, and both tend to do better in the early months of the season.

But check out Looper’s starkly disparate day/night splits as a starter. Uh oh. I think I like Houston at this low line. Plus St. Louis close Jason Isringhausen is someone I tend distrust more than most when he is overworked, which he may be a bit now, having pitched four out of the last six days.

BUSH + GAGNE AT -150?
Is anyone surprised that Eric Gagne is struggling as Milwaukee’s closer? Is anyone surprised that it hasn’t yet mattered in the Brewer’s won/lost column? Prediction: Seth McClung will be Milwaukee’s closer by September, and/or he will be one of the NL’s better relievers this year.

I love Milwaukee in general this year, but I don’t know if you can ever justify taking Dave Bush as a -150 favorite.

GREINKE AND KENNEDY IMPRESS
The Yankees and Royals used to be the penultimate overvalued vs. undervalued matchup (second only to the Yanks and Tampa Bay) but here that may not be the case. Kansas City starter Zack Greinke has a huge upside, but Yankees’ youngster Ian Kennedy’s is also substantial. Kennedy could easily keep pace with Greinke in this one, and for the later innings, the impressive Joba/Mariano relief tandem will be primed. -120 is not a big line to get for all that.

Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada are out for the Yankees, but they still have major firepower left.

DANKS DOING WELL WITH NEW CUTTER
Minnesota’s lineup is looking pretty chintzy these days. Yes Scott Baker is often quite effective and the bullpen anchored by awesome Joe Nathan should be good again. But you need a little more than what they have on offense to be this small of a road underdog against a winning team, which the White Sox now appear once again to be.

White Sox starter John Danks has a new pitch and it’s looking real good, even if Baker is putting up zeros Danks could easily match him. I’m liking the White Sox here at around -130.

We all remember when Edwin Jackson was arguably the worst starting pitcher in baseball, but Tampa Bay kept running him out there in hopes of one day reaping the benefit of his supposedly great potential. At times toward the end of 2007, he did in fact show flashes of something impressive, and his first start this year against the Yankees was undeniably good.

But Jackson still had shaky command against the Yanks, and he still inspires zero confidence in any sort of consistency. Whether you bet on or against him, a run line bet probably has greater value than a money line bet due to the highly volatile nature of his outings.

JEFF FRANCIS A SLOW STARTER
Wow, was that an ugly start to the season by Jeff Francis last Saturday. And in case you missed it, his opening day start which was expunged from the record books due to rain was even uglier.

But this is not a huge surprise as Francis has always started things out slowly, and April is his worst month career-wise by a comfortable margin. Even in his breakout season last year, he had awful April numbers, particularly at home. His money pitch is his changeup, which can be devastating, but if it isn’t thrown with artful precision, it can become just a fastball that isn’t going too fast, as least not until it gets hit.

With only seven spring training innings, Francis may still need more work to get on top of his game. If 2007 is any guide, he could be in for another rough outing here against the capable Atlanta lineup. In his favor, though, is the benefit his pitches appear to derive from being thrown in the daytime.

MATT MORRIS IN EXTENDED FUNK
Matt Morris’ slow and steady decline seems to have possibly taken a further jump for the worse. He had a bad end to 2007, a bad spring and a bad first start in 2008. But he is crafty and gutsy, and a rebound back to decency is entirely possible. If he can keep Pittsburgh in this game, they’re likely to win; if not, they could get blown out early. A double underdog bet on the Cubs’ 5-inning run line and the Pirates’ full game moneyline might not be a bad idea.

TORONTO DANGEROUS AGAINST SOUTHPAWS
Oakland is winning and playing quite impressively, but they may be in a letdown spot here. Dana Eveland had an impressive 2008 debut outdueling C.C. Sabathia and holding down the Cleveland lineup, but Toronto has been something of a lefty-killer in recent years.

Shawn Marcum, when he is on his game, can be near-unhittable. The line is admittedly pretty high though, in the -140s, but I think Toronto is in a good position for a win here, despite having closer issues.

HOBBLED ROLLINS HURTING PHILLY
The line on the Phillies/Mets game may seem a little steep at first glance, considering how much Philly in general, and starting pitcher Adam Eaton in particular, have dominated the Mets recently.  But John Maine is due for a good start for the Mets, as his clunker of a 2008 debut was very likely just a glitch.

With Jimmy Rollins out or slowed for Philly, their lineup looks less imposing. The Mets want this one, and if Maine can bounce back to his normal self, they should get it.

WHITE SOX BATS BAILING OUT CONTRERAS
Jose Contreras’ goose might be cooked. It wasn’t too long ago that for a brief stretch, he was the best starter in the majors. But now, it’s looking like his problems might be unsolvable. As with his last start, however, the White Sox’ big bats could save him. Minnesota’s ability to take advantage of Contreras will probably be roughly matched by a few White Sox HRs off of Livan Hernandez. As shaky as Contreras is, I’d be hesitant to put money on Minnesota in this spot.

SF GIANTS FACE A TOUGH CHALLENGE
San Francisco, this is one sad-looking team as of now. They did manage to win two out of three against San Diego with strong starting pitching, but Thursday’s starter Kevin Correia, while decent and probably a bit underrated, is not someone you want to need a dominant effort from.

With top-notch Adam Wainwright starting for St. Louis and a lineup stocked with live bats, the Cardinals are looking like a good road fave in the -130s.

WHAT’S UP WITH OSWALT?
After three truly awful starts to start the season, it’s getting safe to assume something is fundamentally wrong with Roy Oswalt. He is saying he feels healthy, but I am very skeptical. He suffered what was reported as a “twinge” in his arm two weeks ago, which he claims is now gone, but I think he will wind up on the DL by mid-May at the latest.

Kyle Kendrick has started out badly as well, but I think he is more likely to bounce back than Oswalt, as Kendrick’s struggles seem to be at least partially due to youthful lack of composure. Philly’s coaches are working with Kendrick to get back to what he had notable success with last season – getting contact outs, not strikeouts. Even if Oswalt does bounce back with a reasonable start, Kendrick could easily match him. Betting against Oswalt and/or Houston any which way probably has value here.

WHAT’S UP WITH SABATHIA?
I think C.C. Sabathia is more likely to rebound in this start and in the near future than Oswalt, but there is still major cause for concern with him. He’s had three sub-par starts this year, with two of them coming against weak-hitting Oakland. There’s been no explanation at all for his struggles, and as a known head case, he will probably settle down at some point, but when?

WANG DOMINATING
When Chien-Ming Wang is rolling, he is close to unhittable, and can often have value even as a huge favorite when facing strong lineups. Trying to hit his sinker, when it’s on, has been described as like trying to hit a bowling ball.

Wang is sure to meet some rougher spots this year, but right now he seems to be at the top of his game. It only took him 93 pitches to get his complete game win over Boston last Friday, and if he continues where he left off on Wednesday, there won’t be much Boston will be able to do about it. The -150 range is not a high price to pay if you’re getting that kind of easy, inning-eating dominance from a starting pitcher.

A bet on the under might also be a good idea, serving as a partial hedge and a partial enhancement in case Boston’s talented young starter Clay Buchholz lines up the goose eggs himself.

OAKLAND LIKELY TO FADE
Oakland is riding up on the lead in the AL West with the Angels, but I think that’s a bit of a mirage, and they will soon fade pretty decisively. Their lineup is looking like one of the weakest in the majors, and they turn particularly feeble at home.

The Athletics are hitting only .218 at McAfee, and with King Felix coming in and looking like he may be headed for a Cy Young-contending season, it would be a major surprise if they lit up the scoreboard much here.

PADRES SEEK REVENGE
They may deny it, but you can be sure San Diego is looking for a measure of revenge this year against Colorado in retaliation for last year’s dramatic ending to the season. The Pads have no doubt got a sweep on their minds for this series, and with the Rockies struggling at the plate in general this year, the Padres may well get it.

Justin Germano is very hot and cold, and he’s been cold against the Rockies in his career, but hot so far this year. With so-so at best Mark Redman going for Colorado, the -130s range for San Diego is looking pretty good.

DODGER BATS HEATING UP
The Dodgers’ bats look like they might be coming around in a major way, and with Dodgers’ starter Brad Penny off of a high pitch count and giving up a lot of hits, the total of 8 for this game might be easily surpassed.

VERLANDER SHOULD EXCEL SOON
Justin Verlander’s seemingly slow start is not nearly as bad as it may look on paper. He had a two-hitter going in his last game until he mysteriously couldn’t grip the balls in the eighth inning due to them becoming “icy.” Whatever that was all about, it’s looking like he’ll settle down into a dominant groove sometime soon.

Fausto Carmona is having “mechanics” problems, and his one walk per inning pace so far this year can’t continue if he expects to have success. I’d be cautious with Carmona until he gets his problems straightened out.

ANOTHER YANKS/BOSOX OFFENSIVE EXPLOSION?
The 20 runs on the board after just five innings yesterday with Chien-Ming Wang and Clay Buchholz starting took me by surprise, to put it mildly. The total for the Beckett/Mussina showdown opened at 9 and went to 9½, and is looming low in light of yesterday. Still, pounding the Over too much may be a bit hasty.

Beckett looked good in his last start against the Yankees, and if he rounds to form in this game it will take a clunker by Mussina for the game to go over. The starting pitching edge Boston has here may not be completely accounted for with the line in the -120s.

MYSTERIOUS FLOYD SEEKING SUCCESS
White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen is very high on starter Gavin Floyd, but a lot of people have been so for a long time, and up to now Floyd has been a major flop. His two starts this year, however, have been very promising, and they both came against Detroit, a team with an undoubtedly strong lineup, even if it may be overrated. Baltimore doesn’t present as tough of a challenge.

Orioles’ starter Jeremy Guthrie comes with a lesser upside than Floyd, but is a much more known entity. Guthrie’s bad games are of the six IP, four ER variety, and his good games are of the seven IP, two ER variety. Guess what Floyd will do in this game, and there shouldn’t be any surprises anywhere else.

ATLANTA BULLPEN IS VULNERABLE
John Smoltz is one of the few pitchers where reports and rumors of injury don’t translate into poor performances. Smoltz just keeps getting outs and quality starts, and it’s impressive. He shook off shoulder problems from spring training, and is now supposedly going to focus more on getting grounders and less on getting strikeouts. Given his track record, you’ve got to trust the guy to get it done.

If we’re going to look at track records though, unfortunately Atlanta’s bullpen has one as poor as Smoltz’ is good. It will be the same old story for Atlanta in this game; get a strong start from a reliable starter, and then close your eyes and pray for however many innings the bullpen is needed. The difference between Smoltz going six innings and Smoltz going eight innings in this game is huge. The Marlins have a good lineup, and while Smoltz will be able to shut them down if he is on his game, the Marlins will be capable of making up any gap against the Braves’ relievers if they are given three innings.

PEAVY OUT FOR REVENGE
Jake Peavy is an ultra-competitive guy on the mound, and he will be facing Colorado for the first time since getting hit hard last year in the game that sent the Rockies to the post-season and the Padres home for the winter. Needless to say, Peavy remembers. He also happens to be in top form right now, and you can take it to the bank he will be gunning for a dominant performance tonight.

Jeff Francis is having his usual early-season struggles, and if you think going to PETCO will give him a break, think again.  In eight career starts and 44 innings at PETCO, Francis is 3-5 with a 5.44 ERA.

Even if Francis rediscovers his lights-out form, Peavy is by all means capable of matching it. The big San Diego favorite line in the -160s is looking tempting to me right now.

LOW SCORING LIKELY IN OAKLAND
Oakland is a feeble-hitting team, and for this game I think I would feel more comfortable trying to take advantage of that with the under 9, rather than taking Seattle in the +100s range. They’ll probably be able to scrounge up a few off of Carlos Silva, and with the home filed and a strong bullpen, Oakland could easily pull this one out if it’s close at the end. I think nine runs in this game, though, is a bit of a tall order.

BRAVES NICKED UP
By now, Braves starter Tim Hudson’s mysterious “loss of velocity” in his last start is widely known, but the market doesn’t as yet seem too concerned about it with Atlanta still sitting as a favorite in the -190s.

But throw in Atlanta’s shaky pen and a minor injury to Chipper Jones, and the Braves are looking to have a slew of small but significant question marks going into this game. They do seem to be Red Sox-like in their ability to slug their way to wins even with bumps during games, but Nats’ starter Matt Chico did pitch a gem against Atlanta two weeks ago. I’m leaning towards some kind of play on the Nationals, but I’ll hold off until the lineups are announced.

DODGER BATS TO REBOUND
We might see an offensive explosion in this game and series from the Dodgers. Turner Field can be a tough place to hit for visitors, and it was not kind to the Dodgers last weekend. But Los Angeles does have a quite capable and at times potent lineup, and they may well take it all out here at Great American Park.

Reds starter Matt Belisle showed some promise as a starter in the early going last season, and his three rehab starts this year coming off the DL were good. But he is still likely to be vulnerable against a quality and probably agitated lineup. I’ll be looking at some kind of play on the Dodgers’ run line or team total in this one.

MORRIS STRUGGLING
Betting on this game is mostly predicated on exactly how bad you think Matt Morris is right now, and to my eyes it seems pretty bad. He’s looking like he’s going to struggle through every start, either getting away with something mediocre, or giving up a big amount of runs that will always be tough for the Pirates’ modest lineup to make up for.

Florida starter Mark Hendrickson looks more capable of a surprise quality start now and then, and adding it all up, Florida is looking pretty good to me to continue their wining ways here at close to even money.

OSWALT BACK IN THE SADDLE?
Roy Oswalt – what to do, what to do. His last start was obviously a major improvement over his first three and a good indication that he’ll be OK this year. But he did still give up some hard outs, and had a few near-miss home runs. His strikeouts are down, and I still think he will be a bit overrated this year, although he’s sure to turn in a number of good starts overall.

With San Diego struggling and Justin Germano not the most dependable of sorts, this is probably not a good time to try and fade Oswalt and Houston with the line quite reasonably in the -140s.

WAINWRIGHT HITS AND PITCHES
This game features two of the more exciting teams in baseball this year, with two quality young starters going. You gotta' love Adam Wainwright, a guy who consistently gives quality starts, and hits better than many position players. Milwaukee’s offense could turn explosive at any time, but for now their average production is not likely to increase with Wainwright looking very steady.

KENDRICK SETTLING DOWN
Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick has demonstrated real ability to be an effective out-getter in the big leagues, and I think he may be about to embark on a run of quality pitching in the early months of this season.

Mark Redman is something of an unknown quantity on the other side, other than the known fact that he’s not that good. A play on the Phillies’ money line might not be the best option, but I do think a play on Kendrick throwing a good game should in general have value.