
The Detroit Tigers, thought to be nearly invincible before the season, don't have as much bite as first thought. Meanwhile, scoring is back en vogue at Coors.
TIGERS’ FLOUNDERING CONTINUES
The betting odds for the opener in the Boston/Detroit series have the game pegged as a toss up, but I’m not so sure about that. The Red Sox look to me to have small edges in all areas for this one – starting pitching, bullpen, lineup, and mental state.
The Sox are not the same team on the road as they are at home, that’s true. But the Tigers are starting to look like they are going to be the head case team of 2008. Their struggles may not be easily solved, and I see a lot of .500 play in their future consisting of explosive home run-based blowout wins surrounded by listless losses.
Tigers’ manager Jim Leyland said, “There will be changes (Monday).” But Detroit’s formula for this year is set, and it’s not looking like a reliable one over the long term.
Additionally, Daisuke Matsuzaka is showing signs of improvement while Jeremy Bonderman’s BB/K ratio is troubling, and does not point to future success for him. The total of 9 also seems a tick low to me.
SCORING IS UP AT COORS
St. Louis starter Joel Piniero has thrown two strong starts in a row, but be careful of backing him here. He has never pitched at Coors’ before, and he is not the type of pitcher likely to do well there.
By the way, the juice might be back in the balls at Coors now, as five out of the last seven games played there have hit double digits in scoring with an average of over 13 runs per game scored in that span. With both lineups involved here decent, and both starters and bullpens involved questionable, the total of 10 might be hanging a bit low.
If I do take St. Louis in any game in this series, it will almost certainly be on the run line. Volatility should be high, and needing Jason Isringhausen to get a save at Coors in order to cash a ticket is not a position I want to be in.
IMPRESSIVE SCHERZER TO MAKE FIRST MLB START
Those who loved and lost with Johnny Cueto in April, take heart: Introducing Max Scherzer. The newest flame-throwing phenom of the month is looking very promising, and with the betting odds putting him and Arizona as a favorite of only -140, there may be value there.
Scherzer does seem to be the real deal, and he may soon become the talk of MLB. He throws in the upper 90s and ices hitters with a dominant slider, like a right-handed Francisco Liriano circa 2006. His K/BB/IP ratio in Triple-A this year was stunning, and based on his debut in the majors last week against Houston where he struck out seven and walked none in four and a third innings, big league hitters may not fare much better.
Crafty and unflappable vet Jamie Moyer is not the ideal guy to have opposing Scherzer, but the Diamondbacks do provide good insurance with a strong lineup and a capable bullpen. All in all, this might be the cheapest price we will see with Scherzer for a while, and in a few weeks we might look back at this line with Arizona at -140 as a substantial gift.
SANTANA FARING BETTER ON THE ROAD
Perhaps a bit under the radar, Ervin Santana has been good on the road this year, in stark contrast to his notorious difficulties on the road in his career to date. And almost poetically, each of his three road starts this year has addressed his major areas of road weakness: Indoors, at Minnesota; in the hitter-friendly park at Texas; and when facing a strong home run hitting lineup at Detroit.
Kansas City’s lineup is ok, but presents a lesser challenge than any Santana has faced so far this year. That of course may ironically set him up for a fall, but with the Angels fielding a balanced and quality lineup this year and Royals’ starter Brett Tomko struggling pretty badly, a play on the Angels’ run line might have merit. The total of 9½ at even money is also looking decent to me.
LOW SCORING AT OAKLAND
The Baltimore/Oakland game is not likely to see a whole lot of runs crossing the plate. Despite Oakland’s occasional explosions of runs on the road, they are not too formidable of a team offensively, particularly at home. They scored three runs in each of their games against Texas, and are likely to get about that here.
Orioles’ starter Garrett Olson needs to control his walks, which is a traditional strength of patient Oakland lineups, but if he can there won’t be much for the Athletics to manufacture for themselves. Dana Eveland is well-suited to face lineups like Baltimore’s at parks like McAfee, and I see a quality start from him as quite likely. Due to low volatility, a play on the +1½ run line for Baltimore may be a smart move.
TEXAS AND SEATTLE IFFY AT THE PLATE
In a game similar to the Baltimore/Oakland game, a play on the under and/or a +1½ run line may be best here. Both starters involved should be able to keep the runs to a minimum at spacious Safeco, and neither team is hitting particularly well right now. I could easily see this one going into extra innings tied at 3-3.