Peter Loshak

Rule changes in sports can go underappreciated or even unnoticed altogether by bettors, but the impact of on wagering activity can, of course, be quite significant, especially early on in a season.

There are a couple of rule changes in store for college football in 2008 that could turn out to be important from a betting perspective. With the average NCAA football game running more than three hours and 20 minutes in 2007, the new rules are intended to shorten the length of games. In 2006, similar rule changes had unexpectedly major results, resulting in fewer plays per game in general and lower scoring per game as a consequence.

Click on graphic for video report.

In the early weeks of 2006, sharp bettors cleaned up betting unders in anticipation of this while less informed bettors were left holding the bag – so these new rule changes which are aimed at solving the same problem as the ones in 2006 clearly bear paying close attention.

The two new rules that could impact the pace of games and the number of scoring opportunities are a new 40-second play clock similar to what is currently run in the NFL, and a different way of handling the game clock on out-of-bounds plays.

The general consensus is that the new rules may encourage more no-huddle offenses, and reward teams that run it well, while on the totals front the feeling is that the new rules won’t affect overall scoring much at all. There have, however, been some in the know who have predicted that once again scoring will be reduced, although not as drastically as it was in 2006.

However things do turn out on the gridiron in the coming weeks, this matter definitely warrants the attention of any serious college football bettor, and certain key indicators that the new rules are or are not impacting the flow of play should be noted.

While many sports gamblers would agree that preseason football betting is an unnecessary and often foolish proposition, some professional sports bettors Peter spoke with feel otherwise.  In fact, while these pros all agree that there are major differences between regular season and preseason wagering, they also agree that there is money to be made betting NFL preseason games.

One of the first areas to consider when examining the preseason is RESEARCH.  Unique to the NFL preseason is the fact that game plans and goals tend to be very well publicized.  Because wins and losses matter very little in the preseason, teams and coaches tend to share a lot of information that they would otherwise keep to themselves once the regular season begins.

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Another area worth exploring in regards to NFL preseason betting involves TOTALS.  If late reports indicate a significant number of backup players seeing action, as is typically the case in preseason ball, sharp bettors might very well be able to make adjustments such that game or half totals become more lucrative.

The trend by coaches in the NFL preseason to avoid OVERTIME at all costs provides another potential edge.  With strategies and play calling being influenced by the strong desire to avoid OT, unexpected calls like 2-point conversions can often diminish the importance of key numbers like 3 and 7.

Finally, pro bettors often take a close look in the preseason at NFL teams that performed poorly in the previous regular season.  Many times, these teams provide the exception to the “rule” that preseason wins and losses are unimportant.  Coming off of a bad season, these teams may actually be placing much more importance on early victories than their opponents.

So, despite the common belief that there is no value to be found betting NFL preseason games, many professional gamblers think otherwise.

View the complete video.

This one is a trap for the public with New York's Joba Chamberlain on the mound.  Make your money on Vicente Padilla and the Texas Rangers at home Monday vs. the Yankees.

The Yankees have been somewhat notoriously overrated as road favorites in recent years, although this year that has not been the case. Sitting in third place in the AL East, and playing only .500 ball on the road, the Yanks have not wound up as a big road fave too much this year, and when they have, they have tended to win.

But on Monday at Texas, the betting odds have installed the Yankees as a favorite in the -150s range, and I think some of the old tendencies of the market to overrate the Yankees on the road may be creeping back again.

Yankees’ starter Joba Chamberlain is a big reason this line is so big, and Joba has been impressive in his conversion to a starter, no doubt. But he may be affected by the oppressive heat of Texas in this start, and may not be as sharp as usual.

The Yankees are also having some bullpen concerns at the moment, which could well hurt them a lot here if the game is close in the late innings. The Yanks have no clear eighth-inning setup man right now, and most importantly, closer Mariano Rivera is having health issues. He was unavailable on Sunday due to back spasms, and it’s not clear at all that he will be available and in good shape to pitch for the Monday game. If this game becomes a shootout, not having Rivera for the 9th could loom large.

On the other side the Rangers have been playing reasonably well lately. The Rangers’ lineup is in a good groove right now, enjoying productivity day in and day out, and they are competitive in most games they play. Texas starter Vincente Padilla is solid, and while rarely lights-out, usually keeps pace with the pitcher he opposes. Padilla is also the top money-making starting pitcher in all of baseball at the moment, a fact that might surprise some people. Some of that is due to luck of course, but he is still nevertheless a reliable guy on the mound, and a good bet as an underdog at home in most situations.

The Rangers do well against right-handed pitching in general, and I don’t think Joba is likely to outpitch Padilla, unless Padilla gets crushed, a small but always-present possibility. As a hedge against that, I’ll also take a bet on the Over which I think has a bit of value, considering how lively things have been offensively in Texas recently. So on Monday I’ll be on Texas +145 and the Over 9½ (-120).

The Astros look to finish off a home sweep of the sinking Reds tonight when Houston sends left-hander Wandy Rodriguez against Cincinnati right-hander Edinson Volquez.

On Wednesday's MLB card, the betting odds have installed Houston as a very small favorite at home over the slumping Cincinnati Reds, and I think there is decent value on the side of the Astros with their overnight line of about -115.

The main reason this line is this low is because of the heady reputation Reds starter Edinson Volquez has engendered in 2008, his first season putting it all together on the major league level, realizing his well-touted potential, and earning an appearance in the All-Star Game. Not to take anything away from Volquez’ explosive success early in the year, which was legitimate and probably not fluky, but as might be expected with a young starter gaining his first taste of elite success in the majors, things have taken a turn for the worse as the season has worn on.

Volquez’ two post-break starts were shaky, and signs of him coming back down to Earth even before the break were apparent in his July and late June starts as well. According to Volquez, he is not “hitting his spots” like he was earlier in the year, and he is searching for mechanical reasons why that might be. That is not a good thing to hear, and unless he comes up with a solution for this start he is likely to be in for more of the same at Minute Maid Park on Wednesday.

Fellow Dominican Wandy Rodriguez, on the other hand, has been quite effective since the break. His strikeouts are up, he has avoided giving up big innings and home runs, and was able to quiet two solid lineups in the Cubs and the Brewers his last two times out. If Rodriguez is able to be a master on the mound as he is often able to consistently be when he gets into a good groove, he will likely outpitch Volquez, which will give Houston a big edge.

All in all, things are looking up for Houston and Rodriguez at the moment, and not so up for Volquez and the Reds, so I’ll take a shot with the low line on Wednesday and play Houston -115.

With the starting pitching matchup basically a wash and the Twins playing at home, Minnesota makes for the best play Friday night when they host the Texas Rangers.

On Friday's MLB card, one line jumped out at me as being modestly but solidly off a bit, and that is Minnesota at home priced as a favorite in the low -120s over visiting Texas.

The Twins, perhaps the AL version of the Mets, ended the first half on an impressive and extended tear, rising from a sub-.500 record to having the fifth-best record in the AL and winding up only a game and a half out of first place in the AL Central. While the Twins were no doubt overachieving a bit, they do still nonetheless have a good core of a team, with a quality bullpen to preserve close wins at home, and I expect that they will continue on as one of the better AL team for the rest of the year and challenge for a playoff spot.

The Rangers are a solid team in their own right with some nice positives to them, but they are still just a .500 team away from Rangers Ballpark, and they are at a notable disadvantage when they go on the road to face winning teams with capable bullpens such as the Twins.

The starting pitching matchup here is basically a wash. Both starters involved can be decent but are usually pretty hittable, but the Twins will probably gain a small edge from the lefty/righty situations here; the Twins fare a bit better when facing righties, as Texas starter Kevin Millwood is, while the Rangers struggle a bit against southpaws, one of whom they will be up against on Friday in Minnesota’s Glen Perkins.

Adding it all up, I see value on the side of Minnesota, a team that has played well (32-18) and profitably (+14.4 units) at home all year long, and is currently playing some good ball to boot. If this game is close in the later innings, Texas will face a tough challenge pulling out a close win when Minnesota’s bullpen gets involved. This is a short price to pay here for Minnesota in my opinion, so I’ll be going with the Twins -125 at home on Friday night.

The Mets surged forward with a nine-game win streak just before the All-Star break, and have ace Johan Santana to open the second half.  Can New York keep it up?

CUETO LOOKS TO MATCH JOHAN
The Mets reeled off nine straight wins to close out the first half, winding up significantly over .500, a half-game out of first place in the NL East, and having atoned somewhat for their underachievement under popular fired manager Willie Randolph in the first few months of the season. Now with Johan Santana on the mound to start the second half in Cincinnati, the Mets may look like a good road fave at -140, but I’m not entirely convinced of that.

Despite being loaded with lefty bats, the Reds have not suffered against left-handed starters this year, having gone 18-17 and breaking even on units. They were even able to get to Santana for three runs in six innings earlier this year at Shea Stadium, and I think Santana will probably not have a flawless start here, but rather something of the 7-IP, 2-ER variety.

Up-and-down rookie Johnny Cueto, starting for the Reds, may well benefit from the extra rest conferred by the All-Star break. Unless Cueto get shelled, this game should be competitive throughout, and I am leaning towards the Reds as a good-sized home dog.

PEAVY ROUNDING TO TOP FORM
Jake Peavy’s return from the DL was a bit unsteady in June, for him at least, but his two starts in July were vintage Peavy, and he is likely to be fully in top form for at least the near future. The Padres do tend to get up for games Peavy starts, as his notorious intensity is infectious, and this is a game where the whole team is likely to be playing near the top of their game.

The big question here is whether surprising Kyle Lohse will be able to maintain his fantastic momentum of the first half. Lohse has pitched well all year, and the Cards impressively won 10 out of his final 11 starts of the season, sending him into the Top 20 in baseball in starter P/L.

But I think Lohse is likely to very much revert to his mean in the second half, if not completely collapse. He has a tenuous hold on his game, and overall fatigue will hurt him more than others if he begins to suffer from it.

This may not be the game to start fading Lohse hard, but I do think a 5-inning play on San Diego may have solid value; a shutout first 5 from Peavy would not be a surprise at all.

Is Cleveland's Cliff Lee in for a letdown before heading to the All-Star Game in New York next Tuesday, or will Tampa Bay's recent losses continue heading into the break?

ALL-STAR CLIFF LEE IN A POSSIBLE LETDOWN SPOT
Tampa Bay is a good team with a solid foundation, no doubt, but they have taken a turn for the worse in recent games, and that losing mentality is likely to haunt them through the rest of their series at Cleveland as the first half of the season winds down.

The Indians were underachieving while mired in their own embarrassing road losing streak last week, but they rebounded in a big way on Thursday, and they are not doubt focused on getting a slew of wins under their belt while settling down at home.

Tampa Bay starter James Shields is in a strong and steady groove right now, but Cleveland’s Cliff Lee is entirely capable of matching him, and if he does, Cleveland should be able to pull this one out.

The one big danger though, is a possible psychological letdown for All-Star Lee in his last start before the All-Star game. That is something that does happen not infrequently, and it would not be a surprise here at all for it to happen to Lee, who has logged a lot of innings and has a history of inconsistency.

If the betting odds move the line in favor of Cleveland, and Tampa Bay winds up as a smallish underdog, the Rays will be looking like an attractive bet. A bet on the Tampa Bay run line might be even better, as it offers protection against both a strong start from Lee and a blown late-inning game by the Tampa Bay bullpen.

ORIOLES TO FACE 2007 NEMESIS BUCHHOLZ
Boston is once again an enormous home favorite even with a non-marquee starter going and facing a .500 team. And once again, they may have some value on their side, even at that huge line and in those circumstances.

Sox starter Clay Buchholz no-hit the Orioles last year, and he can be a lights-out pitcher when he is on his game. He was very good at times early this year, but was also very inconsistent, mixing in clunkers with his quality starts, which was not a big surprise, and then landed on the DL with a fingernail problem.

But Buchholz is now rehabbed and rested, and his minor league starts went well overall. He is probably good to go here, and if he is, Boston should have a strong edge, greater than the betting odds are currently giving them.

Boston has torn up lefty starters this year, and is 3-0 as a home favorite in the -175 to -200 range. Orioles’ starter Brian Burres does not appear to be a good candidate to buck those trends. Burres had a quality April, but has gotten knocked around ever since, including a shelling when he faced Boston in June. He is likely to be vulnerable here again, and a strong start from him would be an abrupt reversal of form.

Due to the uncertainty of Buchholz’ readiness, I think a play on the Red Sox run line is preferable to the money line.

OSWALT RETURNS IN A SOFT SPOT VS WASHINGTON
Roy Oswalt is coming back from his brief time out due to a strained hip, but I’m not convinced he is in good shape at all. Oswalt threw a bullpen session where he said he felt great, Houston manager Cecil Cooper has labeled Oswalt “completely healthy,” and Oswalt’s last few starts before his latest injury were good. But Oswalt had to have an injection to deal with the pain caused by a worn-down disk in his back, according to the Houston Chronicle, and that is not something that will go away easily.

I’m itching to fade Oswalt in general, but I wish there were something better on the other side on Friday than Tim Redding and the Washington Nationals. The Nationals are a lowly and decimated team, and they really just are not winning at all in any kind of way right now. Redding has been OK this year, but the Astros will be bringing a strong complement of lively bats into Washington for this series, and Redding is not likely to have a strong outing in this spot.

Neither Adam Eaton of the Phillies nor the Mets' Pedro Martinez evokes feelings of a strong performance tonight, but Philadelphia still has the home edge in this one.

EATON IFFY, PEDRO IFFIER
There are a lot of contradictory factors involved in the Mets/Phillies game on Monday.

Phillies starter Adam Eaton has been excellent against the Mets in his career, but most of that is due to how successful he has been at Shea, and he has struggled most times out this year. On the other side, Mets starter Pedro Martinez bears no current resemblance to the Pedro of old, and he will no doubt be vulnerable here as he has been all season long.

And a number of the big bats in Philadelphia’s quality lineup have been slumping, especially at home, where the Phils have now lost eight out of their last 10 in their last three series.

But I think a bet on Philly may be warranted at this low line. Pedro may well give the Phillies chance after chance until they finally get something going on offense here, and even if the Mets hit Eaton, the Phillies stand to have an edge in a shootout at home.

STREAKING TWINS FACE STIFF TEST IN BOSTON
After their come-from-behind win Sunday over Cleveland, the Twins have won 16 out of 18, yet the betting odds have installed them as an underdog in the +150s, down 10 cents from the overnight line in the +160s.

Most of those wins have come in Minnesota though, and things have been decidedly less sanguine for the Twins on the road. They have still nevertheless been a profitable road team this year, and they tend to do well against righties, which stands to reason considering that most of their offensive firepower comes from the left side.

The Red Sox, as usual, have been a juggernaut at home this year. The jury is still out though on how much Boston starter Daisuke Matsuzaka has recovered from his shoulder injury. He has had his typical start his last two times out – low IP, a lot of walks, few hits, and escaping with his team in the lead. If he can repeat that here, it will probably be another win as a big home favorite for the Red Sox.

BREWERS SURGING ON
Milwaukee was badly underachieving in the beginning of the year, but the talent was always there. It’s not a huge surprise that they have been able to rebound, playing well over .600 ball since mid-May. They have climbed into second place in the NL Central, and they may get a further psychological and on-field boost with the impending acquisition of stud starting pitcher C.C. Sabathia.

The home/road disparities in this game are stark. The Rockies, as is often the case, are terrible on the road while the Brewers have one of the best home records in baseball, which has produced a profit of about 11 units.

The lines for this game have taken a curious trajectory; Milwaukee was first bet way up, and then Colorado took a ton of money, pushing the line way back down. This could well have something to do with Sabathia trade rumors.

Rockies’ starter Ubaldo Jimenez, when he is on his game, can be very tough. And he may well come with a top-notch effort here. But all things considered, the Brewers in the -120s range at home seems low.

FIREWORKS POSSIBLE IN TEXAS
This is a dangerous spot for the Angles and starter Ervin Santana, as a sizable road favorite. Santana seems to have impressively fixed his career-long problems on the road, but he has always been particularly bad at Rangers Ballpark, and he has been increasingly inconsistent as the season has worn on. He could be in for one of his classic road clunkers here.

Rangers’ starter Luis Mendoza has a lot of talent and promise, but he is not close to being a reliable big league starter yet.

With the Angels hitting well in general, this game could easily turn into a shootout, and if it does, bets on the over and on Texas as a good-sized home dog will have value.

Hard to believe Sidney Ponson can draw -170 chalk at this stage of his volatile career, but that's the price he and the Yankees carry into their contest with the Rangers.

SIDNEY PONSON AT -170
The Sid Ponson train rides again, and it continues to be a spectacle. Ponson has got to be one of the worst 5-1, 3.50 ERA starting pitchers of the last few years. But he keeps getting breaks and hanging on, and now he and the Yankees are a -170 overnight favorite over Texas.

That might be a dangerous line however, and not just because the Rangers have already won the first two games in this series as huge underdogs. Rangers’ starter Luis Mendoza has had a rocky road so far this year, dealing with nagging shoulder injuries and blisters. But he now seems to be healthy, and when he is, his stuff can be very good. The Rangers have high hopes for Mendoza, and if his recent relief stints are any indication, he may be ready to blossom as a starter, effective immediately.

Getting back to Ponson, it’s not clear how he will react to facing his old team, the one that released him a month ago for, among other things, “disrespecting teammates and club personnel.” Ponson wouldn’t talk to the New York media on Tuesday, claiming he doesn’t talk the day before he pitches.

But Ponson’s last start against the Mets, which is probably contributing to keeping this line high, is a bit of a mirage in my opinion. That start was at Shea, facing the Mets with no DH and in the second game of a doubleheader. Going against his old team at Yankee Stadium will likely be a different scenario entirely.

If Ponson does have a bad start though, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yankees come back late against the Texas relievers and bail him out once again. A bet on the Texas 5-inning line is probably a safer deal than the full game line.

THE PEDRO OF OLD HAS YET TO RETURN
Pedro Martinez has not done well at all for the Mets since returning from the DL, and while there is some statistical indication that things could get better for him in the near future, you’d like to be getting a better line on the road than even money before betting on something like that.

Cardinals’ starter Joel Pineiro hasn’t been a prize on the mound himself in recent months, but he has been serviceable, and that may be all St. Louis will need here to pull out a win.

The Cards have been pretty good and are in the black on the year both at home and against righties, while the Mets have struggled and are in the red on the year on the road and against righties.

I think St. Louis should be a bit bigger of a favorite than the betting odds have them on the overnights, and I expect the line to move in their favor a bit by game time. I think a bet on the Cards would be warranted anywhere under -110.

ARAMIS RAMIREZ OUT AGAIN FOR THE CUBS
With both Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez out of the lineup for the Cubs in this series against the Giants, there is a notable lack of firepower in the Cubs’ attack, despite the fact that other lesser-known players have picked up the slack pretty well so far.

Matt Cain was able to take good advantage of that on Tuesday with his two-hitter gem, and Wednesday’s starter for San Francisco, Kevin Correia, is admittedly no Cain, to put it mildly. But Correia can usually give a solid outing against modest lineups in pitcher-friendly parks, and a six-inning, three-run type of start from him here will probably put the Giants in a decent position to win as a home dog.

Cubs’ starter Ryan Dempster has had a strong year so far, but his K/BB ratio and other peripherals leave me a bit concerned about his ability to keep it up.

This line may rise in the Cubs’ direction, and if it does, I’ll be looking for a value play on San Francisco if their underdog line moves into the +130s.

Tampa Bay's Matt Garza will bring blazing fastballs while Boston's Tim Wakefield floats his tantalizing knuckler to the plate Tuesday when Tampa Bay hosts Boston at The Trop.

GARZA’S FLAME VS WAKEFIELD’S FLUTTER
The first game of the Tampa Bay/Boston series went approximately as expected. Tampa Bay held serve in this home-dominated series, and Boston continued its losing ways on the turf. Game 2, however, is looking like it could wind up a completely different story, with its own unique and very uncertain handicapping factors involved.

The pitching matchup alone is a fascinating one. Boston starter Tim Wakefield has been absolutely dominant at Tropicana throughout his career, and normally getting him as an underdog there would be something to jump all over. However, he has struggled in his last two starts at Tropicana, and the extra benefit his knuckleball usually derives from pitching indoors seems to have ebbed a bit recently.

In my opinion though, these deviations from his usual pattern have been due to other factors involved, and with Wakefield now in a groove where he has been pitching consistently well in general everywhere he has gone, I think a top-notch start for him here is likely.

On the other side, Tampa Bay starter Matt Garza may well keep up with Wakefield even if Wakefield is lining up zeroes. Garza has awesome stuff, and more often that not, he has been on his top game this year. When he is, scoring for the other team is rarely an option. His last start against Florida was vintage Garza, where he threw a one-hitter against a team with some lively bats in a park not usually forgiving of pitchers’ mistakes. He has faced Boston twice this year though, with poor results each time.

All in all, I think Boston is the side with value here, although exactly how much, and how much confidence there is, is unclear. No outcome in this game would be a surprise, but I think Boston has a decent shot here to get the first road win in this series in 2008.

LOSING CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE NATIONALS
Washington may have blown their best chance for a win on their current road trip with Jon Rauch’s blown save on Monday. The Nationals aren’t going to go into too many ninth innings with a lead, and blowing those leads is the mark of a team to stay away from at the betting window.

On Tuesday the Nationals are going with Collin Balester making his major league debut, a guy who was good but not great in the minors this season. Balester also doesn’t yet get deep into games; he didn’t go more than six innings in any of his last 10 minor league starts.

Marlins’ starter Mark Hendrickson, to be sure, is in a bad way right now. After having a great April, he ran into trouble in May and then even deeper trouble in June. But if anyone is going to give Hendrickson a break, it’s going to be the Nationals. I don’t think he’s injured, I think he has just regressed back to his mean of sub-mediocrity. But for this game, that’s probably a good thing. If Hendrickson can have his usual shaky start, and get a bit of a break from Washington’s weak lineup, that is probably good enough for him to leave the game with a lead, which is probably good enough for Florida to be able to pull out a win with relative ease.

Adding it all up, the Marlins are looking like a decent bet in the -130s even with Hendrickson starting. They are, after all, at home facing the Nationals and a guy making his big league debut.

WANDY RODRIGUEZ STEADY AT HOME
Astros’ starter Wandy Rodriguez’ home/road splits, while maybe not Ervin Santana-esque, are becoming pretty stark. This is a bit of a surprise since Minute Maid Park is not a particularly pitcher-friendly stadium, and especially not for lefties like Rodriguez with its short left-field porch. But Rodriguez clearly feels more comfortable at home, and he has repeatedly shut down better lineups at Minute Maid than what the Dodgers are currently fielding.

Rodriguez has also has been quite a streaky pitcher in his brief career so far, getting shelled when he is off, but having deep and quality outings when he is on. He seems to be currently in the midst of a good run, and in his reports and interviews he mentions he is feeling good out on the mound right now. I do expect him to tail off later this season as he did in 2007, but in the middle months of the year at home, he seems to be in his element, and I think he is likely to have a good start again on Tuesday.

Dodgers’ starter Clayton Kershaw has that much-admired wicked curve ball, but he has still nonetheless not yet proven that he is able to put together a deep and quality start in the major leagues. Leaving one hitter looking helpless at the plate means little if the next two guys get a walk and a double, and he hasn’t ultimately as yet been a great asset to the Dodgers on the field as far as wins and losses are concerned.

Houston may have bullpen issues in this game since closer Jose Valverde has pitched three days in a row now and 41-year-old second choice Doug Brocail has been called in from the pen in three of the last four Houston contests. But I still think that all the bets that are implied by a good start from Rodriguez and a modest one from Kershaw probably have value.

It's fast becoming one of the most heated rivalries in Major League Baseball, even more now that the Rays are proving they are a team for the Red Sox to contend with in the AL East.

BOSTON AND TAMPA TO DUKE IT OUT AGAIN
The rematch between Boston and Tampa Bay is set to start on Monday, and this may be one of those series where you can ignore trends and records and past performances. After the ugly brawl that took place in their last meeting, you can rest assured that both teams will be gunning for the other.

The home team has won every game in the nine meetings so far this year, and with ultra-competitive James Shields starting on Monday, the Rays should have a decided edge here. Shields has struggled a bit in June, but his K/BB ratio has remained stellar, and he seemed to regain his edge his last time out at Florida.

The betting odds, however, do seem to have taken all this into account. Tampa Bay is a -150 favorite, which looks to be about right considering that Red Sox rookie starter Justin Masterson has been pretty good so far this year, and seems capable of matching a strong performance by Shields. But some of Masterson’s peripheral numbers are not so great, and I would not be surprised if his season took a turn for the worse in the near future.

I think the value here is with Tampa Bay, but it may be small. Despite the big line, Boston does not do well on artificial turf. They are actually 1-9, -9.5 on the turf this year, and even over the last three years they are 20-34, -21.5 on the turf.

One interesting additional note is that Tampa Bay seems to flourish when they draw big home crowds; they are 9-1 this year at home when attendance is over 30,000.

UGGLA OUT FOR FLORIDA AGAINST WOEFUL NATS
The key to betting the Florida/Washington game is figuring out exactly how bad the Nationals’ offense really is. Pretty bad, without question, but they may be able to get something going against the Marlins’ rookie starter Ryan Tucker. Tucker did well in his short major league debut earlier this month, but things have been going a bit downhill since then, and the Nats’ lineup may surprise here.

Florida will be without HR and RBI leader Dan Uggla here, and Washington starter Tim Redding has proven himself to be a consistently capable pitcher this year. He is actually the most profitable starting pitcher in baseball at the moment from a betting standpoint, a fact which may surprise some people a lot.

Florida’s Top 6 in the lineup still comprise a strong assortment of bats, and the line has moved steadily in Florida’s direction since opening. But if it keeps moving further that way, a play on Washington may become warranted.

HARANG GOING THROUGH A ROUGH STRETCH
Cincinnati starter Aaron Harang has a well-deserved stellar reputation, but the fact is he has struggled progressively this year as the season has rolled on. Last year’s top money-making starter has turned into a loser this season, and for this game, things are not looking too good for him. His innings pitched are down, and his K/BB ratio is way down recently, which is a particularly telling sign for a pitcher like Harang.

Pittsburgh has not been a good road team this year, but nonetheless, if Harang struggles again, the Pirates should be competitive down to the end. They do have a few big bats that can send the ball out of the park, and the Reds’ assortment of lefty power hitters has been struggling recently, especially the rookies Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.

Pirates’ starter Paul Maholm isn’t great, but he is steady, and he could easily keep Cincy’s lineup at bay, as he has been way better against lefties in his career. He gives up half as many HRs to lefties as he does to righties, and his BAA is 80 points lower and his WHIP 40 points lower against lefties than righties.

Depending on lineups and line movement, I may make a play on Pittsburgh here as a good-sized road dog.

One of the most dominating pitchers in his younger days, Arizona's Randy Johnson has been knocked around in '08 and could be in for a long night at Fenway against the Red Sox.

RANDY JOHNSON LIKELY TO BE VULNERABLE AT FENWAY
Is Randy Johnson’s goose finally cooked? Maybe not quite yet, but he is struggling badly right now, and it’s not looking like much of a fluke. His last three starts have been awful, and they have come against Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Kansas City, not quite Murderer’s Row.

Johnson’s name is keeping this line relatively moderate, and it is looking especially so in light of how well the Red Sox have done at home in general this year, and against lefty starters in particular this year, against whom they are 12-3 for a profit of 9 units.

These games where the Red Sox are relatively big home favorites have paid off handsomely so far this year. They suffer the very occasional loss in these situations, but their generous clumps of wins around those losses more than make up for it. As a home favorite between -125 and -175, the Sox are an astounding 21-3, for a net profit of about 16 units.

Boston starter Tim Wakefield’s string of steady quality starts only boosts further the case for a bet on the Sox here at about -150.

STRUGGLING SOUTHPAWS FACE OFF IN CLEVELAND
Tuesday’s showdown between San Francisco and Cleveland featured two equally-matched left-handed starters which resulted in a close and competitive game that gave value to those who backed the Giants as a big underdog. Wednesday’s matchup promises the same kind of scenario, the only difference being that Wednesday’s lefty starters, Barry Zito and Jeremy Sowers, are terrible, as opposed to Tuesday’s starters, who are currently pitching very well.

The Giants have been undervalued on the road in general this year. Their record is actually better on the road than it is at home, and their near-.500 road mark has resulted in a profitable net return on the year. The Indians, for their part, seem to be a bit of a team that plays to the level of their competition; one stat that jumps out at me is Cleveland’s record of 19-29 against teams with losing records, which as you might expect, has resulted in an ugly net loss of 18 units.

Betting real money on a team with Barry Zito starting is always a tough thing to stomach, even as a big underdog. But on the other hand, betting money against a team with Sowers starting is usually a pleasant thought, particularly as a big underdog.

DUKE PITCHING WELL, PIRATES HUGE HOME DOG
The Yankees lost as a sizable road favorite on Tuesday to Pittsburgh, going up against an improving lefty in Tom Gorzelanny, and the same situation might be shaping up for Wednesday’s game. Only here, Pittsburgh’s starter Zach Duke is improving even more than Gorzelanny is, and the Yanks are an even bigger favorite than they were on Tuesday.

It has always been best to proceed with caution when considering a bet on a game Duke is starting. Over the past couple of years he has burned a lot of money for his backers, and has caused a lot of agita in people who had visions of his dominant debut of 2005 still lingering around in mind.

But when Duke’s sinker is working, as it legitimately has been at times this year and particularly recently, in June, he is an effective major league starter and likely to have strong outings. He has gotten better each month this year, and has kept his WHIP down and has gotten ground ball outs when he has needed to.

There’s no question that Yankees’ starter Joba Chamberlain is a stud on the mound, and the Yanks will probably field a better overall lineup than the Pirates in this game. But if Duke continues to be effective, he will be a neutralizing force, and taking Pittsburgh at such an inflated home underdog line will be a good bet.

Without the DH tonight, the Rays' offense will be more vulnerable than usual.  Follow the Florida Marlins to the pay window Tuesday against their Sunshine State rivals from Tampa Bay.

On Tuesday in MLB, I think there is going to be decent value on the side of the Florida Marlins when they host in-state rival Tampa Bay. At the short favorite line the betting odds have set for the Marlins in this game, approximately -115 on average, I’ll bite.

Tampa Bay is a quality and impressive team this year that has really come into its own. In the AL East, the Rays are a game behind Boston and hold a solid lead over the third-place Yankees. They’re the real deal this year, and they should be in contention to the end.

The Marlins, however, are a similarly strong team, themselves only one game out of first and solidly ahead of the third place team.  They are also likely to contend to the end, with their lineup stocked with lively bats, which could get a further boost with the return of Josh Willingham for this game.

The Rays will lose their DH for this game which could hurt their offensive production, already not their strongest aspect. And their offense tends to suffer a bit on the road as well, a contributing factor to their losing ways on the road recently.

Both starting pitchers involved in this game can be good, but are also erratic and prone to getting hit. But with extended rest I see Marlins starter Scott Olsen as in position to come through with a quality outing, while Rays’ starter Andy Sonnanstine’s vulnerability to high hit totals could make him particularly vulnerable against hot-hitting Florida.

So adding it all up, I will take a shot with Florida -115 in this Sunshine State series opener.

A couple of big dogs highlight Monday's schedule with Felix Hernandez and the Mariners in New York vs. the Mets while Jason Bergmann and the Nats host the Angels.

FELIX HERNANDEZ LIKELY TO KEEP THINGS CLOSE
It never feels comfortable putting money on Seattle, a weak team in disarray. But in this spot, as a big underdog, with Felix Hernandez starting and in the midst of a superb June and with the Mets traveling all the way back from Colorado for this series, it might be warranted.

I’m thinking about a play on the Seattle plus 1½ run line, or perhaps the Seattle 5-inning line. If the game is low-scoring and close, as it is likely to be, Seattle at about +160 probably isn’t big enough.

BERGMANN VERY UP AND DOWN
Whenever there is a big home underdog line in a baseball game, as there is here, I am always on the lookout for better than usual value on one side or the other. This game hinges entirely on how you rate Washington starter Jason Bergmann. We all know approximately how good Angels’ starter John Lackey is, how bad the Nationals’ lineup is, and how decent the Angels’ lineup is. But Bergmann is a bit of a wild card here.

Bergmann has displayed lights-out ability in more than a once-in-a-while manner over the years, but he has also shown a lot of inconsistency. And it doesn’t look good that Washington still lost his two home starts in mid-May that came during his scoreless inning streak of that month.

I’m still researching around and looking for clues as to how Bergmann will fare on Monday, but if I do pull the trigger on Washington, it will likely be on a 5-inning bet.

PITCHERS’ DUEL EXPECTED IN ATLANTA
The total on this game has really taken a tumble since opening. It actually opened at 9, with a -110 on both sides at Bookmaker.  The under got slammed to -125 within one minute there, and it has settled in at 8 at most places, shaded to the over on the money lines.

Ben Sheets has really settled into a nice groove of consistent excellence, if not quite dominance. And Braves’ starter Jo-Jo Reyes also looks like he has made a big and legitimate leap forward in terms of learning how to have quality starts in the majors.

Betting the under here, however does look risky to me, especially now at this reduced line. Sheets and Reyes may well both have strong starts, but as happened on Sunday, late scoring could easily send this game over even if they do. The under may look tempting, but I would proceed with caution when thinking about betting it.

Tim Hudson had been very consistent this season until a rocky last start, so he should rebound well here. With Silva off of possibly his two best starts of 2008, go Under.

On Sunday in MLB, I’m going to take a shot with the under in the finale of the Seattle/Atlanta series. The betting odds have set this line at 9½ on the overnights, which I think is a notch or two too high considering the starting pitching and lineups involved.

Starting for the Braves will be almost-stud Tim Hudson. Hudson throws mostly strong starts, with a rocky outing every month or so that keeps his season-long stats honest. He may have filled his June order for that in his last start at Texas, where he was hit hard and given an early exit after having thrown only 71 pitches. I think he will be primed for a bounce-back start here at home where he has been stellar all season long.

On the other side, Mariners’ starter Carlos Silva has been suffering through a poor season, and understandably gives pause to an under bet here. But Silva really hit rock bottom in May, and his June, which has without question been less than mediocre, still has him headed reasonably in the right direction.

His last two starts have been better, and most importantly for me, his ground ball/fly ball ratio for those two starts was way better than it was when he was getting crushed, and that is a key sign for a sinkerballer like Silva. Silva, interestingly, also threw only 71 pitches in his last start as well, due to an ejection.

We don’t know what the lineups for this game will be as yet, but we do know that home plate umpire Sam Holbrook is admittedly a strong over-trending ump in recent years, with an Over record of 48-29 (62%) since 2006, This does temper my enthusiasm a bit for this bet, because one of Silva’s main strengths is that he doesn’t give up a lot of walks, and an ump with a tight zone can turn one of his starts into a disaster, especially when he is struggling as he is now.

But there may be a few starters getting a day off here as both teams are playing on Monday. And Chipper Jones will definitely be out of the starting lineup for the Braves due to injury. And Holbrook does seem to even out as the totals go higher. Since 2006, he has gone 10-10 O/U on games where the total was 9½ or higher.

So all in all, I see pitching looking on the upswing for this game, and lineups probably on a downswing, coupled with a relatively high total. I’m going to grab this overnight line and take the under 9½ -120 in this one.