Stephen Nover

The Detroit Tigers have won six in a row and own one of the better home marks at 22-11.But there's a reason why they are a home 'dog today. That reason is a pitching matchup of Ted Lilly against Armando Galarraga. It's enough to make me lay a small price on the Cubs.

Lilly is underrated. He has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the National League this season. He's 5-2 with a 2.78 ERA in his last 10 starts. He has a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his past 23.1 innings. Lilly is well suited to pitch in spacious Comerica Park, too, being a fly ball pitcher.

As for Galarraga, he shouldn't even be in the majors anymore. He is 0-7 with a 7.48 ERA in his last 10 starts. Opponents are batting .343 against him during this span.

The Cubs are one-for-23 with runners in scoring position during the first two games of this series. A correction is due in short order. Expect it to happen in this matchup.

The Tigers' bullpen worked four innings on Wednesday night. Closer Fernando Rodney had a rocky ninth inning throwing 24 pitches before getting out of a jam.  Chicago is the right call.

Free Pick: Cubs -117

The San Diego Padres have lost 11 straight interleague games and face a huge pitching disadvantage in this matchup. Kevin Correia, a journeyman with below average stuff and a 4.80 ERA, is on the hill for San Diego against "King" Felix Hernandez.

Few pitchers are as good as Hernandez when he's right. And he's been right. Hernandez is 2-0 with a 0.94 ERA in his last four starts. He is 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA in his last five interleague starts, all of which were Seattle victories.

Hernandez should have no trouble turning in his 10th quality start in 14 outings this season against a puny San Diego attack made much weaker without underrated injured outfielder Scott Hairston and with Adrian Gonzalez on a 10-game homerless streak.

The Padres have lost their last 11 interleague games by an average of four runs per loss. Seattle is not an elite American League team, but Hernandez is an elite pitcher when he's healthy and right like he is now.

Free Pick: Mariners -135

I like over the total when the Cubs and Astros conclude their two-game set in Houston on Thursday. Why? Russ Ortiz. Still need more reasons to play over the total?

OK, just in case you think a washed-up Ortiz still has something left despite a 5.21 ERA and lifetime control problems, consider this: The Cubs are starting lefthander Ted Lilly. He's a flyball pitcher facing a top-heavy right-handed Astros lineup in a hitter's park. Lilly's road ERA this season is 9.00. The Over has cashed in eight of Lilly's last 10 road outings.

The Cubs' two key relief pitchers – setup man Carlos Marmol and closer Kevin Gregg – have each pitched in three of Chicago's past four games.

Houston's bullpen, though, is in far worse shape. Closer Jose Valverde is out. So is Doug Brocail, one of the Astros' key setup men. With the exception of journeyman LaTroy Hawkins the Astros relievers are a bunch of arsonist no-names who have fatigue issues going into this matchup.

The Cubs have scored at least six runs in four of their last six games. They should be able to knock out the wild Ortiz early and get into the Astros' highly vulnerable bullpen. Topping things off is Andrian Johnson is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. The over is 14-2-4 the last 20 times Johnson has been behind the plate. This is a one-unit play for me.

Free Pick: Cubs-Astros Over 9½ (-115)

I'll lay this short price with Houston Astros ace Roy Oswalt against the Washington Nationals' Scott Olsen.

The southpaw Olsen has a 6.08 ERA this season. He's never fulfilled his early promise he showed with Florida. The Nationals are a sloppy fielding team and have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Right now their co-closers are journeymen Julian Taverez and Kip Wells.

The Astros have the righthanded bats to take advantage of the erratic Olsen and get into the Nationals' sad sack bullpen. Washington is 5-11 in its last 16 as a home 'dog.

Houston has won 14 of the past 19 games Oswalt has started. Oswalt is 3-1 with a 2.59 ERA in 10 career games versus the Nationals, including 1-0 with a 0.55 ERA in four games at Washington D.C.

Free Pick: Astros -120

The very early money has been on the Braves and Jo-Jo Reyes. That's fine with me. I'll lay less than normal juice to get the hot Cardinals and a superior starter, Kyle Lohse.

The Braves aren't getting a whole lot of home support these days, having lost nine of their last 13. They are missing All-Star catcher Brian McCann and Garret Anderson, a left-handed bat they could use in this matchup. Atlanta's offense is really struggling putting up three or fewer runs in nine of the last 13 games.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, are 13-4 in their last 17 games.

Bobby Cox is turning to Reyes to get his team untracked. Good luck with that. The Braves are 5-16 in Reyes' past 21 starts. Reyes is 0-8 with a 7.82 ERA in his last 14 appearances.

Free Pick: Cardinals -107

Anytime Jeff Suppan is starting and the total is less than eight, I'm taking a hard look at the Over.  This matchup justifies an Over play.

Suppan is a journeyman, innings-eater type of starter unworthy of having a total this low next to his name even if Tim Lincecum is the opposing pitcher and the game is being played in a pitcher's park in cold and wet conditions.

It's expected the Giants are going to be weak offensively again. But we don't know that yet. Cornermen Pablo Sandoval and Travis Ishikawa had great springs.

Suppan can make any offense look strong. He has a career 4.99 ERA versus the Giants in eight starts. The Brewers are vulnerable at closer with Trevor Hoffman sidelined.

Milwaukee had a great hitting spring. Lincecum won the Cy Young Award last season, but has struggled versus the Brewers. He is 1-2 with a 5.25 ERA against Milwaukee in four career starts.

This is a day game with the first pitch scheduled to be thrown at around 1:05 Pacific time. The heaviest rains are expected to hit San Francisco between 11 a.m. and 4 p.m. So there's a good possibility of an extended rain delay, which could mean a shorten outing for Lincecum.

Free Pick: Brewers-Giants Over 7 (-110)

The Pirates probably are headed for a 17th-straight losing season. Like the Cardinals, they are going with a lot of young players. Some of these players even have talent.

The difference between the Pirates and Cardinals is starting pitching. The Cardinals have more quality starting pitchers.

In this one game matchup, though, the difference between the two clubs and starting pitchers is much shorter than the line. The oddsmaker is finding his way the first couple of weeks. Proof of that is in lines like this one.

Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright is good. Good as in solid, rather than good as in great. But Pirates starter southpaw Paul Maholm also is good. Maholm had a breakout season last year in becoming the team's ace. His strong performance carried over to the Grapefruit League where he looked exceptionally sharp.

Maholm was 2-1 versus St. Louis last season with a 3.05 ERA. The lefthander pitched through the sixth inning in 20 consecutive starts. The Pirates were 50-2 last season when leading after seven innings.

Tony LaRussa already is tinkering with his lineup. He's going to sit second baseman Skip Schumaker and third baseman David Freese against the lefty Maholm. They will be replaced by Brendan Ryan and Brian Barden, a third-string third baseman with Troy Glaus out.

At this price, with Maholm going, the Pirates are worth a one-unit play.

Free Pick: Pirates +170

The New Orleans Hornets should be primed for a strong effort at home vs. the San Antonio Spurs following an embarrassing road loss to the Knicks on Friday.

The problem for New Orleans is quality bodies. The Hornets just don't have enough of them for this matchup.

New Orleans will be missing center Tyson Chandler and his backup Hilton Armstrong, both out with ankle injuries. In addition, Peja Stojakovic has missed the last 12 games because of back spasms and reserve forward James Posey may be suspended for this game.

The timing is especially bad for New Orleans because the Spurs have Manu Ginobili back. San Antonio has won its last three games. This will be Ginobili's third game back since missing a month and a half with an ankle injury.

Ginobili, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker were in the lineup together for the first time on Friday since Feb. 11. They helped San Antonio build a 27-point lead on its way to an easy 111-98 win against the Clippers.

Finally healthy, the Spurs are trying to peak with the playoffs coming up in three weeks. They should be ready to give an all-out effort with their next game on Tuesday at home against lowly Oklahoma City and then not playing again until Friday.

Play the Spurs Sunday night.

Free Pick: Spurs Pick’em (-110)

It doesn't matter what team Boston is playing now, even one as bad as Memphis. The Celtics are in no condition to cover a big spread, especially one as high as double-digits.

The Celtics are 3-4 in their last seven games, 1-6 against the spread. They are not the same club without Kevin Garnett. And they're nothing resembling an elite club minus five of their eight main rotation players as point guard Rajon Rondo remains out along with reserves Glen Davis, Brian Scalabrine and Tony Allen.

This cluster injury problem means extended minutes for newcomers Stephon Marbury, Mikki Moore and even rookie Bill Walker. Marbury and Moore, two well-traveled veterans, have not looked good. Marbury is extremely rusty. He's missed 18 of 21 shots from the floor during the last five games.

The Celtics are merely trying to survive as they wait to get back to full strength while going through growing pains with their newcomers. They are in no condition to cover big spreads.

Memphis traditionally has had good success against Boston, going 12-3-1 against the number in the past 16 meetings. The Grizzlies struggle to score points, but usually can be counted on for an effort because Lionel Hollins is trying hard to show he should be the team's coach again next season.

I expect Memphis to be fired-up after an embarrassing 25-point loss on Wednesday to the lowly Timberwolves. Marc Gasol quietly is putting together an excellent rookie season for Memphis.

Boston and Memphis meet again in eight days, so don't expect the Celtics to do anything to embarrass the Grizzlies. They couldn't even if they wanted to because of their injury situation.

Free Pick: Grizzlies +11½ (-110)

[articleBanner]bracketcontest2008[/articleBanner]

Denver is sure to be fired-up returning home after suffering a 114-106 road loss on Sunday to the lowly Sacramento Kings. But are the Nuggets worthy of laying this many points to such a quality opponent?

Denver is not playing well, having lost seven of their past 10 games. The Nuggets have failed to cover in four of the past five times they've been favored.

Houston is 10-2 in its last 12 games. The Rockets are battling for a high playoff seeding. They also played on Sunday, but had no trouble dispatching a bad Memphis Grizzlies team. No Houston player went more than 33 minutes.

By contrast, Denver had four players that logged more than 36 minutes on Sunday. Veteran Chauncey Billups played 43:36. Carmelo Anthony and Nene Hilario each played close to 39 minutes. Streak shooter J.R. Smith went more than 36 minutes.

This marks Denver's fourth game in five days. The Nuggets just got into town following two consecutive road games, so it's not a good situational spot for them. This is a one-unit play for me.

Free Pick: Rockets +4 (-110)

For an opposing view, CLICK HERE.

Energy is a key word when handicapping the NBA. Figure out which team will have it and the other won't, and your chances of cashing are good. Look for Boston to have it in today's road matchup against the Nets, a team they've beaten seven straight times. This includes two mid-January victories by a combined 52 points.

Boston is just 3-2 since losing Kevin Garnett. The Celtics also are without injured big man Brian Scalabine and Tony Allen. Boston was embarrassed in its last game, losing at home on Sunday to Detroit, 105-95.

The Celtics are one of three elite teams in the East. The other two are Cleveland and Orlando. The Celitcs host the Cavaliers on Friday followed by a home game versus the Magic. The defending world champs are vulnerable right now without Garnett. They realize that. But they still have Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Rajon Rondo and an underrated bench. Stephon Marbury, like him or not, was a big addition. He's had time to practice with his new team and will do well.

The Celtics will be motivated and focused for this matchup. They have covered 10 of their past 13 road games. They will be energized. They have to be with the Cavaliers and Magic looming and Garnett still not ready for action.

New Jersey is playing well. The Nets would be riding a four-game winning streak if they didn't blow a late lead to New Orleans. But the Nets won't have the necessary energy following their huge 99-95 road win Tuesday night at Milwaukee. Despite a terrible shooting night from their two main offensive weapons, Devin Harris and Vince Carter, the Nets came from an 84-76 deficit with less than five minutes to play to knock off the Bucks in a matchup with playoff ramifications as both teams are battling for the final playoff position in the East.

This is the Nets' third game in four days. They are off a huge victory. They got into town this morning. The rested and focused Celtics have been pointing to this matchup since Sunday.

Look for Boston to get the win and cover. This is a one-unit play for me.

Free Pick: Celtics -6 (-110)

As a small-market, non-marquee team the Milwaukee Bucks often find themselves getting underpriced. That's the case again in this matchup. The Bucks are in a triple revenge spot against a Pistons squad that entered the All-Star break on a three-game losing streak, a 1-6 against the spread mark and losses in 12 of their past 17 games.

The Pistons have been a huge money-burner at Auburn Hills failing to cover in 21 of their past 28 home contests. Detroit has won one more home game than it has lost this season.

The Bucks are 11-5-1 against the spread on the road when meeting an opponent with a winning home mark. Michael Redd is out for the season. Andrew Bogut could be out for the year, too. Starting point guard Luke Ridnour won't be available for this matchup. So far, though, the Bucks have gone 2-1 when missing these three key players. They are averaging 122.3 points in their last three games.

Bucks coach Scott Skiles has shown great flexibility in turning Milwaukee into an up-tempo team because of Bogut being out. Ramon Sessions is proving to be much better than Ridnour.

The teams met 10 days ago and Detroit won in overtime, 126-121. Sessions completely out-played Allen Iverson. Sessions made 13-of-18 shots from the floor, scored 44 points and dished off 12 assists.

The Pistons lack the Bucks' chemistry and morale. They have a losing record since Iverson came aboard 47 games ago. There are constant trade rumors swirling around that could factor in the Pistons' concentration level. Detroit coach Michael Curry is changing his lineup starting Antonio McDyess. The last time the aged McDyess was a full-time starter was 2001.

Perhaps the Pistons begin to get things turned around right here. I doubt it, though, and am willing to take this many points to fade Detroit again at home. This is a one-unit play for me.

Free Pick: Bucks +7 (-110)

Maybe a cross-country trip out of South Bend with an early start time is just what ailing Notre Dame needs right now. But I'll have to see it first before I believe. In the meantime, I will continue to fade an Irish squad that has lost and failed to cover in their last six games, all against tough Big East competition.

Traveling out of conference this late in the season isn't usually good for the road team, especially on a journey this far away. UCLA is playing extremely well. The Bruins should be poised to jump all over the struggling Irish knowing they sustained early non-league losses to Michigan and Texas and this is a rare chance to host a big-time non-league foe.

A loss would be an embarrassement for UCLA and Bruins coach Ben Howland knows it. The Irish don't match up well to the Bruins either. Their presses won't be effective against Darren Collision. The Bruins have by far the superior defense. They are much quicker than the Irish.

Notre Dame has failed to cover their last seven games versus teams with a winning record, while the Bruins are 9-3 against the number the past 12 times they have faced a team with a winning mark. This is a one-unit play for me.

Free Pick: UCLA -10½ (-110)

For the first time in 30 games we find a total on the New York Knicks that is under 200.  Oddsmakers tend to react when a team goes under the total seven straight times like the Knicks have. But oddsmakers have been slow to catch on to what opponents of the Knicks now realize – that New York's offense is just one-dimensional. The Knicks can only play a run-and-gun style. Talented defenses can stop an offense that lacks options.

In this matchup, though, the oddsmaker has overcompensated too much setting up an over the total play.

New York is going to gets their points. The Knicks are averaging 102.8 points, sixth-highest in the NBA. Washington ranks 27th in defensive field goal percentage, allowing foes to connect on 47.5 percent of their shots. The Knicks have averaged 118 points in their two games this season versus Washington. The last five games in the series have gone Over.

The Wizards are going to get their share of points, too. They are averaging 112.5 points against the Knicks this season. New York ranks 28th in scoring defense, yielding 106.3 points per game. The Knicks' defensive field goal percentage is even more generous than Washington's. The Knicks rank 29th in the category, allowing foes to make 47.7 percent of their shots from the floor.

The Wizards have two top scoring threats, Caron Butler and Antwan Jamison. Injuries have opened the door for a pair of young guards, Nick Young and Javaris Crittenton. They've been playing well lately with Young shooting close to 70 percent from the field in his last three games. Both could have strong games against the Knicks' loose defense.

If the total doesn't go higher than the opening number, it would be the lowest Over/Under the Knicks have had all season. The oddsmaker has overreacted setting this total too low and making me involved for a one-unit play.

Free Pick: Wizards-Knicks Over 197½ (-110)

The Milwaukee Bucks have covered 66 percent of their games this season, tied for the second-best spread mark of all NBA teams. A big reason for this has been hard-nosed coach Scott Skiles. The Bucks have improved their defense, upgraded their depth and gotten tougher mentally under Skiles.

Now the Bucks face the Spurs in San Antonio. The Spurs are a team the Bucks respect, but do not fear. Milwaukee plays San Antonio with a tremendous amount of confidence.

The Bucks actually have defeated the Spurs in 11 of the past 19 meetings, including 82-78 at home on Nov. 19. The Spurs were without Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili in that matchup, but Milwaukee also was missing Michael Redd. The Bucks are 11-5-1 against the spread in their last 17 road games. Bucks assistant coach Kelvin Sampson knows the Spurs well, having worked briefly for them as an assistant last season.

The Bucks' confidence is up having won five times during their past seven games. San Antonio is 2-5-1 against the spread in its last eight games. The Bucks should be able to stay within this number and once again bring home the money. This is a one-unit play for me.

Free Pick: Bucks +8½ (-110)

Both the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans have their playoff spots determined. This makes this matchup totally meaningless. It's more or less a glorified scrimmage.

We know Tony Dungy's history in preseason and in these end-of-the-year regular season situations. He either sits out or plays very sparingly his star skill position players.

Peyton Manning is going to play very little before turning the offense over to Jim Sorgi, another in the line of bad Wisconsin backup quarterbacks in the NFL.

But how will Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher approach this game? That had been the unknown until now. Fisher has made his intentions known saying both second-string quarterback Vince Young and third-stringer Chris Simms would see extensive playing time.

Young has thrown one pass since opening week. Simms is even rustier, having not seen live action in more than two years.

Star rookie running back Chris Johnson is expected to play very little, while LenDale White doesn't figure to play at all after missing every practice this week because of illness.

The Titans are first in scoring defense, holding foes to 14.1 points per game. They rank fifth in total defense. Indianapolis is in the top 11 in scoring defense and total defense.

Both clubs will be missing star defensive players. Albert Haynesworth won't play for the Titans, while Bob Sanders has been ruled out for the Colts.

Still, that's not enough for me to get off the Under, considering neither team wants to show anything on offense or special teams. Their goal is to stay healthy and get through the game mainly using rusty, bad backup quarterbacks.

If you like a vanilla, boring, grind-it-out style of game featuring mainly backup quarterbacks then this is the matchup for you.

As for me it's an Under play at this total.

Free Pick: Titans, Colts Under 39 (-110)

The No. 2 team in the country is a double-digit favorite over the top-ranked school. Are the pollsters that far off?

Not when it comes to this SEC championship game between Alabama and Florida. These are two outstanding teams that are near even statistically. Florida has the more explosive offense. But Alabama has the better defense, can run the ball, is road tested and has fewer key injuries.

All of this puts me on the Crimson Tide at this big of a spread. You don't get a class underdog like this every day.

Alabama is averaging 202 yards rushing per game led by Glen Coffee, who is averaging 6.2 yards per run. The Tide allows just 2.7 yards per rush. Alabama has recorded 23 sacks, has 24 takeaways and has allowed only a 25 percent success rate on third-down conversion attempts.

Alabama definitely can control the line of scrimmage and win the battle of the trenches. Florida hasn't quite encountered such a physical, pounding foe. The Crimson Tide owns road victories against Georgia, LSU and Clemson. It's a real insult for Alabama to be such a heavy underdog.

Next to Tim Tebow, Florida's most valuable offensive player is versatile Percy Harvin. He has accounted for more than 1,000 yards rushing and receiving and has scored 16 touchdowns. He couldn't practice this week because of an ankle sprain. The Gators' leading rusher, Chris Rainey, also is banged-up with a groin injury. Rainey should play, while Harvin is questionable and would be less than 100 percent if he did play.

Free Pick: Alabama +10½ (-110)

The Dallas Cowboys eked out a big home win without Tony Romo against a solid Tampa Bay squad last week despite scoring only 13 points. The Cowboys are limping into their bye next week trying to get by starting a washed-up human statue at quarterback, Brad Johnson. They're not going to get away with another close decision here. The Giants are too good, arguably the best team in football, have home field and the necessary power in the trenches to keep Dallas from playing smashmouth.

The Cowboys want to ride Marion Barber and have Johnson just do his dink-and-dunk routine. Johnson has lived down to his derisive nickname of "Checkdown" because he rarely even looks downfield. Just ask Terrell Owens how frustrating that is. Owens is reduced to cipher status with just seven receptions for 64 yards during the past two weeks while Johnson fills in for Romo.

That's not going to get it done against the Giants. The defending Super Bowl champions aren't stupid. Barber is going to see eight-man fronts and Owens is going to face press coverage and double-teams.

There is a sentiment that you can't lay this many points with the Giants against such a strong division foe. I ask why not? Right now the Cowboys are just the Cowboys in name only. They are full of holes and injuries. Johnson should have retired after he helped Tampa Bay win the Super Bowl. He's embarrassing to watch now. He's so bad that career journeyman Brooks Bollinger may see action. Anytime you see a quarterback from Wisconsin on the field the white flag has been raised.

The Cowboys have injuries in their secondary and Johnson probably won't have his main checkdown target, tight end Jason Witten. He has a broken rib and has been unable to practice. I seriously doubt he plays.

The Giants have a power, balanced attack and a swarming, well-coached defense. Even though they are off a tough game, too, beating Pittsburgh, they certainly won't lack for incentive to bury their hated division foe. Once the inevitable starts to happen - the Cowboys falling behind - then things are going to detoriate real fast for Dallas. You will be sorry then that you didn't lay the points here.

Free Pick: Giants -8½ (-110)

The line is around pick because of the perceived pitching advantage the Phillies are supposed to have with Cole Hamels against Scott Kazmir.  That's trumped, though, by the Rays playing at home where Kazmir has been strong, all while the Phillies have been idle for seven days.

Philadelphia last played a week ago. The Phillies figure to be rusty and their timing off. We have recent history to back this up. Two years ago, Detroit had six days off before beginning World Series action against St. Louis. The Tigers lost 7-2 in Game 1 and fell to the underdog Cardinals in five games. Last year, Colorado had a record eight days off before its World Series against Boston. The Rockies played terrible and were swept in four games.

Contrast this with the Rays who have momentum and adrenaline that should carry over for this home matchup.

The importance of Tropicana Field can't be underestimated. The Rays have won 75 percent of their past 76 games there. This is a field with a lot of quirks that the Phillies haven't experienced. The dome and synthetic grass are different at Tropicana Field than what the Phillies have experienced in the National League playing at Arizona and Milwaukee, which have retractable roofs. Phillies outfielders may have trouble with the numerous catwalks and scaffolding hanging from the top and the extensive lighting at Tropicana Field.

The southpaw Hamels has been brilliant in the postseason. But the Phillies are 10-7 in his road starts, 2-7 versus teams with winning records. The Rays have proven they can defeat good lefties during the postseason, beating Jon Lester and scoring eight runs and getting 17 hits in 13.2 innings versus White Sox lefties Mark Buehrle and John Danks.

Kazmir has been much better when pitching at Tropicana Field. The Rays went 14-2 in his home starts with 12 of the 16 games coming against teams with winning records. Kazmir was exceptionally sharp in his last start during Game 5 at Fenway Park, shutting out Boston for six innings while allowing just two hits and striking out seven.

Free Pick: Rays -102

Underdogs of nine or more points are a magnificent 13-2 against the spread this season with seven straight-up winners. So on the surface it might be tempting to fire away on the winless Cincinnati Bengals hosting hated division rival Pittsburgh.

Don't do it. The Bengals have no chance here with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback and no running attack matching up against the Steelers' second-rated defense. Pittsburgh hasn't allowed 300 yards of offense. No team has been able to pass for 200 yards against the Steelers. The Steelers have owned the Bengals in Cincinnati beating them seven straight times. Ben Roethlisberger is 10-0 in his NFL career when playing in his home-town state of Ohio. This includes a 5-0 mark against Cincinnati.

Rudi Johnson may have been on the downside of his career, but for the Bengals to attempt to rush the ball with Chris Perry and Cedric Benson is an absolute joke. Cincinnati's ground attack may pick up when Marvin Lewis figures out Kenny Watson is his best running back.

The Bengals have to be ultra-conservative with Fitzpatrick, considering his severe limitations and the Steelers' blitzing pass rush, which has 18 sacks second-most in the NFL. In addition, the Bengals may have to go a second straight week without kicker Shayne Graham. He's one of the better kickers in the NFL. His replacement, Dave Rayner, is very inconsistent which is why he's a journeyman.

The artist formerly known as Chad Johnson has vanished. So have his stats - 19 catches, 36 yard average per game and one touchdown. Ocho Cinco has been rendered insignificant by being less than 100 percent and Carson Palmer being out.

The Steelers were banged-up going into their bye last week. Now they should almost be fully healthy although Willie Parker may not play. That won't matter because Mewelde Moore is a solid north/south runner, who can catch extremely well and pass block. Cincinnati gives up 158.8 yards on the ground. Only four teams are worse. Roethlisberger should have ample time to pick out his many targets. The Bengals only have five sacks in six games.

One sharp professional football bettor told me he loves to play on winless teams this late in the season. It worked last week with St. Louis and Detroit, both of whom easily covered with the Rams winning straight-up. But that logic won't apply here. The big news in Cincinnati isn't this matchup with the Steelers. It's the future of Palmer. Will he be shut down this season? This week it's the Bengals who will be shut down.

Free Pick: Steelers -9½ (-110)

It was noble of first-year Nebraska coach Bo Pelini to take the blame and apologize to the state for the Cornhuskers' miserable showing in a 52-17 loss to Missouri last week.  But it's not Pelini's fault. He's a good coach, better than what Nebraska has had. The problem is the Cornhuskers haven't converted to 21st century football yet.

Their defense isn't quick or fast enough to compete with high octane spread offenses such as Missouri and now Texas Tech. The Cornhuskers can have all the motivation and turn in a great effort, but they simply are overmatched here. Now that the point spread has gone down to less than three touchdowns, the time is right to play Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders have the nation's No. 2 offense, averaging 583.3 yards per game, and the No. 1 passing attack. They beat the Cornhuskers, 70-10, when Nebraska last visited Lubbock four years ago. Texas Tech coach Mike Leach isn't the kind of coach to let up either like Missouri actually did last week. He'll run up a score for poll purposes.

Texas Tech buried Kansas State 58-28 last week. Graham Harrell was 38-for-51 with six touchdown passes for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders received good ground support, too, from Shannon Woods and Baron Batch.

Any optimism from Nebraska's narrow loss to Virginia Tech two weeks ago faded with its surrender to Missouri. Now the Cornhuskers go on the road for the first time. They've allowed an average of 52.6 points in their last four road games. The sad fact is Nebraska can't stop Big 12 opponents. They are giving up an average of 47 points in their last eight conference games.

Free Pick: Texas Tech -20½ (-110)

At first glance, the Buffalo Bills might seem like the right play. They are 4-0 with outstanding special teams, excellent team chemistry and an improving offense, while the Cardinals are coming off a game where they gave up 56 points and probably will be without Anquan Boldin.

First looks can be deceiving, though.

The Cardinals are going to win this game, which is all you need to cash since Arizona is in the pick'em to minus-one range. The Bills are making their third long road trip in four weeks. They are a carpet team playing on grass. Buffalo is improved. However, the Bills' schedule has laid out extremely well up to this point.

The Bills hosted a crippled Seattle squad opening week when the Seahawks weren't ready. Buffalo then drew Jacksonville, which was struggling with a cluster injury problem in its offensive line. Buffalo barely nipped Oakland, winning by one point at home. Then last week the Bills beat maybe the worst team in the NFL, the St. Louis Rams. So the Bills' 4-0 mark isn't as strong as it may look.

The Cardinals return home after being out East for two straight weeks. They are anxious to put the embarrassement of last Sunday's loss to the New York Jets behind them. The Bills last played in Arizona in 1999. Despite a boatload of turnovers against the Jets, Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner is having a strong season ranking third in passing yards and fifth in quarterback ratings.

Yes, the Cardinals probably aren't going to have Boldin. However, they still have an "A" wideout in Larry Fitzgerald and young, talented wide receivers to attack a youthful Bills secondary that most likely is going to be without injured starting cornerback Terrence McGee.

The Bills are limping into their bye, which comes up next week. In addition to probably missing McGee, they will be without Roscoe Parrish. These losses hurt their vaunted special teams. Buffalo's two best defensive lineman, Marcus Stroud and Aaron Schobel, also are banged-up.

Arizona should be able to put up at least 21 points at home against the Bills. The Cardinals are 10-5 when scoring 21 or more points.

A lot is being made of Boldin getting hurt. But beneath the radar screen is the news that the Cardinals should get back two key defensive players. Nose tackle Gabe Watson is set to make his season debut after being out with a knee injury and strong safety Adrian Wilson is expected to play after missing last week's game because of a hamstring injury.

Free Pick: Cardinals Pick 'Em (-110)

Arizona is a growing monster. Maybe the oddsmakers will realize that after this game, because the Wildcats are underpriced here.

Look for Arizona to bury New Mexico. The Lobos are breaking in new offensive linemen and wide receivers. Quarterback Donovan Porterie has suffered because of it. He's playing poorly and could possibly be in danger of losing his starting spot. The Lobos scored 13 points in their first seven quarters against TCU and Texas A&M before putting up two late touchdowns when the Aggies went into a prevent defense.

New Mexico has covered only two of its past nine games. Arizona has far superior talent on both sides of the ball.

Arizona has put up 111 points in dispatching Idaho and Toldeo. The Wildcats have done it with balance, averaging better than 280 yards passing behind quarterback Willie Tuitama and 210 yards rushing. The Wildcats have 10 starters back on offense.

The Wildcats aren't going to lack for motivation either after losing as a 9½-point home favorite last season to New Mexico.

Free Pick: Arizona -10 (-110)

The Phillies have suffered two tough losses to the Cubs so far in this series. Look for the due factor to kick in here for Philadelphia. At this huge of a 'dog price, I'm on a rejuvenated Brett Myers against Ted Lilly.

Since returning from an embarrassing minor league stint, Myers is 4-1 with a 1.66 ERA. Meyers has a strong history versus the Cubs, going 6-3 with a 2.63 ERA in eight career starts. The Phillies are in a first place dogfight against the Mets. The Cubs, on the other hand, are on cruise control. The Phillies should be the more motivated club.

Philadelphia is 25-18 this season when facing a left-hander. The southpaw Lilly has a 5.19 career ERA versus the Phillies.  The Phillies have been hurt lately by shoddy bullpen work. But before their last three games, the Philies ranked No. 1 in the National League in bullpen ERA at 3.05.

Free Pick: Phillies +147

Considering their bullpen woes, injuries and Pedro Martinez on the mound, the Mets shouldn't be this big of a favorite.

The line is this high, in part, because New York is home and the pitching matchup is Zach Duke against Martinez. Duke hasn't been good this season, but his ERA (5.13) still is lower than Martinez's ERA (5.79).

Duke is off one of his best performances of the season. Pitching on the road against Arizona last Tuesday, Duke held the Diamondbacks to two earned runs in seven innings. He matched his season-high in strikeouts with six, while walking just one. Duke is 2-0 with a 1.77 ERA in three career starts versus the Mets.

Martinez has won once since June 15. He's 1-3 with a 6.06 ERA during his past seven starts. Martinez has yet to pitch into the eighth inning this season. He's averaged 5.2 innings in his past seven starts.

The Mets lack a true closer with Billy Wagner on the DL. Their middle relief has been terrible.

This is a one-game makeup matchup. The Mets are off a tough division series against Florida. They go on the road after this game, so they may not have their full concentration for the non-division Pirates, a team that generates little respect.

Free Pick: Pirates +180

Two promising pitchers match up here, Josh Johnson for Florida Marlins and Mike Pelfrey for the New York Mets.

Both have been pitching well, but Johnson has the stronger history and is backed by the better closer, so I'll go with the underdog Marlins. Florida is 5-0 in Johnson's starts this season, and he has been solid since coming off the DL with a 2-0 mark and 3.34 ERA. He's 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA in four career starts versus the Mets. Florida closer Kevin Gregg is much better than anything the Mets can scrape up in their arsonist bullpen.

Pelfrey is 0-2 versus the Marlins this season. He has a 7.53 ERA during his past three starts against Florida. One of the keys to this matchup is have the Marlins regained their power? Florida had gone a season-high four games without homering until Saturday when Jorge Cantu and Mike Jacobs went long. The feeling here is the Marlins have regained their power.

The combination of Florida's power, Johnson's history versus the Mets and the Marlins' bullpen edge make the Marlins a worthy underdog.

Free Pick: Marlins +125

It has been quite a while since I saw this big of an underdog. Milwaukee starter C.C. Sabathia has been everything and more the Brewers could have wanted so far. He's 5-0 with a 1.88 ERA in six starts for Milwaukee.

But the underdog Nationals have a few things going their way for this matchup. Sabathia has averaged 114 pitches during his last five starts. He's also never faced Washington before.

The Nationals are playing well, winning six of their last seven. They are going with young players, such as second baseman Emilio Bonifacio, and are loose feeling no pressure. Lastings Milledge is swinging a hot bat with four homers in his last six games.

Washington swept a doubleheader from Colorado at Coors Field on Thursday. That has to boost the Nationals' confidence.

Washington stater Collin Balester is one of the Nationals' better young pitchers. He has a 3.31 ERA in three starts since the All-Star break. The Nationals just may steal this series-opener.

Free Pick: Nationals +275

It's bad enough for the Milwaukee Brewers that they have been outscored 20-7 in dropping the first three games at home in their big series against the Cubs. But what also isn't good for the Brewers is the Cubs have exposed Milwaukee's middle of the lineup vulnerability.

The Brewers are batting .239 with runners in scoring in position on the season. They are 3-for-60 during the last eight games with men in scoring position. A big part of the problem are the No. 5, 6 and 7 hitters – Corey Hart, Bill Hall and Mike Cameron. Hart is overrated, while Hall and Cameron are clutch free swingers who strike out a lot and don't do the necessary things to win games in the clutch.

These guys are OK when facing mediocre pitching. They have power. But they can be stopped cold by good pitchers. The Brewers couldn't score on Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster. Now they draw Rich Harden, the best of the bunch.

Harden has allowed two runs and eight hits in three starts for the Cubs, spanning 17.1 innings. He has 10 strikeouts and a 1.04 ERA. He's difficult to back, however, unless you like to lay huge chalk, which I don't. Backing an overpriced pitcher is not the way to make money long-term.

In this matchup, though, Harden isn't being priced unfairly. This isn't too high of a price to get such a premier pitcher, especially when his mound opponent is Dave Bush and the Brewers are reeling. Bush is a No. 5 type pitcher, which he is with the Brewers. Actually he's a 5½ since Milwaukee is rotating him in the fifth spot with Seth McClung. Bush is 1-6 lifetime against the Cubs with a 4.88 ERA in nine career starts.

Bush is going to have to deal with a resurgent Alfonso Soriano, who is 9-for-17 in his last four games with seven runs scored and five RBI. The Cubs are the best team in the National League when Soriano, a streak player, is hot like he is now.

Free Pick: Cubs -140

Greg Maddux is on the hill and he's not pitching at Petco Park. That's not good if you're the San Diego Padres.

Maddux hasn't won during his past 13 starts. He's been especially brutal on the road with a 6.27 ERA. He has allowed 24 earned runs in his last five starts spanning 27.1 innings. Don't look for Maddux to get better pitching during the day at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Maddux has a 5.85 ERA there in six lifetime starts.

San Diego's middle relief has fallen apart. Respected setup man Heath Bell has surrendered seven earned runs in his last three innings. Injuries and the loss of confidence are really hurting San Diego. The Padres have dropped seven of their last eight games and 10 of their past 13.

Reds starter Bronson Arroyo is pitching much better than he did earlier in the year. He's won four in a row and given up just two earned runs during his last two home starts, spanning 14 innings.

Free Pick: Reds -133

Two promising pitchers go in this matchup - Andrew Miller for Florida and Chad Billingsley for Los Angeles. Billingsley is the strong favorite on the betting line. He's certainly capable of coming in with a big performance. But at this price, the underdog Marlins have too much going for them to be faded or ignored.

Florida is the hotter club, having won five of its past six. This includes taking the first three games of this series. The Marlins are also the much better hitting team, ranking first in homers and sixth in runs compared to the Dodgers rating 29th in homers and 26th in runs. Florida is averaging 5.9 runs in its past 12 games, while the Dodgers are averaging 2.8 runs during their last seven contests.

Marlins All-Star shortstop Hanley Ramirez said he expects to play today after going out early during Saturday night's game because of a sore right shoulder. Look for the line to climb right near post if Ramirez isn't able to start.

Miller has allowed three or fewer runs in seven of his last 10 starts as he begins to show signs of fulfilling his great talent. He has yet to yield more than four earned runs during any of his last 10 starts.

Billingsley is very talented, too, but has struggled somewhat at home. He had a horrible outing on Tuesday at home versus the Braves, giving up five earned runs on six hits and four walks in 5.1 innings while throwing 103 pitches. Billingsley's ERA at Dodger Stadium is 4.18 compared to 2.65 on the road.

The Dodgers aren't expected to have star closer Takashi Saito. He left last night's game because of pain in his pitching elbow.

Free Pick: Marlins +150

The price is right here to back a suddenly hot Dodgers squad against a bad Braves road team that is in a horrendous situational spot.

Atlanta has to travel three time zones to the West Coast after playing a 17-inning home game against Houston on Sunday. The game took 5:35 to complete and that's not including nearly a two-hour rain delay. The Braves managed to win, but lost their best backup infielder, Omar Infante. They also lost two more relief pitchers to injuries during the weekend, Manny Acosta and Jeff Bennett.

This leaves the Braves' bullpen extremely thin as Rafael Soriano remains out and closer Mike Gonzalez probably won't be available after throwing two innings and 40 pitches on Sunday. This puts a lot of pressure on Atlanta starter Jorge Campillo, who probably is going to be asked to pitch deep into the game regardless of how good his stuff is. Campillo has allowed 11 earned runs, 20 hits and five walks during his last three starts spanning 18.1 innings.

The Braves have been a terrible road team all season, dropping 29 of 41 away contests.

The Dodgers have renewed confidence after winning for the fifth time in their last six games on Sunday. The LA offense has more punch with the return of veterans Andruw Jones and Nomar Garciaparra. Hiroki Kuroda gets the start for Los Angeles. He has thrown shutouts in two of his past three starts. The Dodgers also hold a huge bullpen edge.

Free Pick: Dodgers -127

There's no way the Texas Rangers can sweep the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium, right? I say, "Why not?"

The Yankees traditionally are a strong July club, but right now they're not any better than Texas and they are laying a hefty price in this series finale.  New York is 44-40; Texas is 44-41. The Rangers are ranked No. 1 in runs scored and slugging percentage. They are in the top five in batting average, on-base percentage and home runs. The highest the Yankees rank in any of these five key offensive categories in seventh. They rate 13th in runs scored and are No. 15 in homers.

The Rangers also are capable of hurting the Yankees on the base paths. They stole four bases off New York last night, leaving you to wonder if Jorge Posada's injured right shoulder still isn't fully healed.

To avoid the sweep, the Yankees are banking on Sidney Ponson. He held the Mets scoreless for six innings in his Yankees debut Saturday. But when has Ponson ever proven himself reliable and trustworthy? His pattern has been to follow a well-pitched game with a clunker. Yeah, he'll have motivation to beat his former team. The Rangers released Ponson because he couldn't get along and was a pain in the butt. But the Rangers have just as much motivation to defeat their former unpopular teammate. Their hitters certainly know Ponson's tendencies and should have a complete scouting report.

The Yankees, on the other hand, have never faced Texas starter Luis Mendoza. He's not going to get any respect on the betting line, but Mendoza could come in with a big game since he's healthy now. He had been sidelined with shoulder inflammation and blister problems. Since coming back two weeks ago, Mendoza has pitched out of the bullpen and not been scored on in seven innings. He's allowed four hits and not walked a batter during this span. The Rangers are now ready to try him in the rotation again. This is a huge start for him.

Keep in mind, too, the Yankees are not hitting or scoring runs. New York has scored seven runs in its last four games, while averaging less than six hits per game during this time frame.

There are also the usual Big Apple media distractions for the Yankees. The tabloids are throwing out rumors about Alex Rodriguez seeing Madonna and there's a look-ahead situation because the Yankees host Boston tomorrow in the start of a four-game series.

I would take a shot with the Rangers, but not be in any rush to play the game until close to post in anticipation that public money will all be on New York.

Free Pick: Rangers +159

The combination of the Braves having a cluster injury situation in their infield and owning one of the worst road marks at 12-27 puts me on the home underdog Blue Jays.

The Braves probably are going to be without their starting left side of their infield with third baseman Chipper Jones and shortstop Yunel Escobar likely to miss another game. Atlanta is 4-10 when Jones doesn't start.

Omar Infante, the Braves' top infield sub, also is injured and unlikely to play. Atlanta got away on Friday with playing rookie shortstop Brent Lillibridge, Mets reject Ruben Gotay at third base and Greg Norton at designated hitter because Jair Jurrjens threw a shutout. It's asking a lot for Tim Hudson to duplicate Jurrjens' eight-inning effort. Hudson has been terrible in interleague competition since joining the Braves in 2005. Prior to his last interleague start, Hudson was 0-10 with a 7.82 ERA versus American League clubs.

The wildcard in this matchup is Toronto starting pitcher John Parrish. The 30-year-old left-hander does have major league experience. He had been pitching for Syracuse in Triple-A where he was 10-1 with a 2.74 ERA and a 92-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Braves have never faced him and are 12-16 against left-handers.

Considering the Braves' poor road mark, inability to win without leading hitter Jones and their weakness at two infield spots and DH, the underdog Blue Jays are worth a shot.

Free Pick: Blue Jays +120

Toronto's A.J. Burnett is one of those Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde type pitchers. Lately he's been a lot more Hyde. Burnett has been tagged for 10 earned runs and 14 hits in his past two starts, spanning just 9.1 innings.

Just as ominious is Burnett has issued eight walks during this time frame, while throwing 211 pitches.

Milwaukee ranks among the top five clubs in home runs. The Brewers are averaging 5.8 runs during their last nine home games. A day game at Miller Park isn't usually a pleasant afternoon for hurlers.

Toronto, though, should be able to score frequently against Milwaukee starter David Bush, who has been so ineffective this season that he was sent to the minors for a spell. Bush is 2-7 with a 5.73 ERA.

Brewers closer Salomon Torres could be fatigued after picking up a tough save last night by going 1.1 innings. Guillermo Mota, the Brewers' top setup man, had a rough eighth inning last night. It's certainly not asking much for each team to score four runs.

Free Pick: Blue Jays-Brewers Over 8½ (+105)

Maybe Barry Zito can win a home game for the Giants. Yeah, and maybe the price of gas will start going down.

Wishing is one thing, reality is another. The Giants' reality is they have dropped six of their last seven home games, have failed to score more than three runs in five of their last seven games and aren't good enough to beat any quality club unless Tim Lincecum is pitching.

Zito is not Lincecum. He's the free agent bust poster child. Zito is 0-6 at AT&T Park this season with a 6.60 ERA. The southpaw is 0-4 in day games with an ERA of close to 8.00.

The Tigers are 11-5 versus lefties. They are hitting close to .300 against them. Detroit is coming on, winning nine of its last 11 games. There's a big differrence between these teams. The Tigers are much better. The pitching matchup favors Detroit, too.

Rookie Armando Galarraga has been more than solid, especially on the road and in day contests. He's 4-1 away from Detroit with a 2.23 ERA. He's also 3-0 during the day with an ERA under 2.00.

The Tigers have won eight of Galarraga's 10 starts.

Free Pick: Tigers -142

Joba Chamberlain is an outstanding setup man. But as a starting pitcher, he's totally untested. Yet the oddsmaker has priced him like he's an established ace. He isn't. But Toronto's Roy Halladay is.

Halladay is in good form, too, giving up three earned runs during his last three appearances spanning 19.1 innings. He has a 16-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in this time frame. Halladay has been a Yankee killer, too. Toronto is 8-3 versus New York during Halladay's past 11 starts against the Yankees. Halladay has a lifetime 3.03 ERA versus New York.

Chamberlain will be lucky to last five innings because he'll be on a 65-75 pitch count. Moving Chamberlain into the starting rotation weakens New York's bullpen. The main setup man is now Kyle Farnsworth. That's not good if you're the Yankees.

The Blue Jays are rested, having been idle on Monday while the Yankees were losing a tough 6-5 road game to Minnesota courtesy of Farnsworth. Toronto has won eight of its last 11 games.

This is New York's first home game following a seven-game road trip. So the Yankees may not have their full concentration yet, especially with all the New York media hype surrounding Chamberlain's first major league start.

Free Pick: Blue Jays +114

No one is referring to Ryan Dempster as Ryan Dumpster this season. At least yet. A shaky closer last season, Dempster has had eight quality starts for the Cubs this year.

But Dempster has been fortunate. The Cubs have scored a lot of runs for him. He's been pitching above his talent level.

The Rockies have lost five in a row and have multiple injuries. The Cubs have won five in a row. However, at better than two-to-one odds, Colorado is a play for me. I'm not sold on Dempster as this big of a favorite, plus the Cubs' two best relief pitchers have fatigue issues.

Closer Kerry Wood has pitched four of the last five days. He's thrown 31 pitches in the past two games combined. Setup man Carlos Marmol has pitched during the last two days, too. Dempster has an 8.42 ERA in seven lifetime starts versus Colorado.

Rockies starter Glendon Rusch is a veteran lefty who pitched for the Cubs from 2004-2006. Because of erratic wind conditions at Wrigley Field, which can bring a lot of randomness into the equation, it's usually not a good idea to lay a huge price like this.

Free Pick: Rockies +210

Expect a strong performance from Tampa Bay southpaw Scott Kazmir today when the Rays conclude their series with the New York Yankees. He should be pumped after inking a three-year contract extension for $28.5 million and was a Yankee killer last season.

Kazmir has looked good since returning from a strained left elbow. The AL strikeout leader last season, he has made three starts this season with the last coming on Saturday versus the Angels. He held them scoreless in six innings at home, allowing three hits while striking out six and walking three.

The Yankees' offense is feeling the loss of Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. New York has scored four runs in its last three games. Kazmir held the Yankees to just two earned runs during his last three starts against them last year in 18.2 innings. During those three starts, he allowed New York just 12 hits while having a 22-to-six strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Yankee starter Ian Kennedy is the wildcard in this handicap to the Under. It appears a trip to Triple-A may have gotten him on track as he gave up no runs on two hits in 8.1 innings, allowing no walks and recording eight strikeouts while back in the minors.

The Rays haven't exactly been tearing the cover off the ball. They've been held to two or less runs in five of their last eight games.

Free Pick: Yankees-Rays Under 9 (-125)

This certainly seems like a low total on the surface between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Boston Celtics. Underline the word surface because with these two teams it's a mountain of a total to reach.

The Celtics play great defense, especially at home. They are allowing an average of 76 points in five home playoff games. If LeBron James is cold, the Cavaliers have no other scoring options.

Cleveland has gone Under in 10 of their past 13 games. Cavaliers coach Mike Brown is all about defense. He's deficient when it comes to designing an effective offense. But his Cavaliers can play intense, tenacious defense.

The combined 148 points in Game 1 fell nearly 30 points short of this total. Yes, the oddsmaker has made a five-point adjustment in the total, but it's still not enough.

The Cavaliers shot just 30.7 percent from the floor in Game 1. James had a horrible game shooting. That may not change, though, with the Celtics ganging up on him while just paying lip service to the rest of the Cavalier bricklayers.

Cleveland did hit 22-of-26 (84.6 percent) of its free throws in the opening game. That high percentage isn't likely to hold up here in Game 2. The Cavaliers were 28th in free throw percentage during the regular season, converting 71.7 percent of their free throws.

The Celtics shot 42.6 percent from the floor. They made 14-of-18 (77.8 percent) of their free throws, which was right around their season average.

Going 'under' the total was the right play in Game 1. The bottom line is there is no reason to deviate from that thinking until proven otherwise.

Free Pick: Cavaliers, Celtics Under 177 (-110)

Maybe they still haven't gotten over being swept in last year's World Series by the Boston Red Sox. But there's something wrong with the Colorado Rockies who seem to have lost their identity.

Yet despite losing 12 of their past past 15 games, the Rockies are favored today against the St. Louis Cardinals. This despite a pitching matchup of southpaw Jeff Francis versus Adam Wainwright. This isn't 2007 for Francis. He's 0-3 with a 5.26 ERA this season. The Rockies have lost five of his six starts.

Wainwright, though, is proving to be the real deal since coverting to a starter from the bullpen. In his last 19 starts, going back to last season, he's allowed three or fewer runs in 17 of those outings. During the other two starts, he yielded four runs. The Cardinals are 24-14 the past two years when he's started.

St. Louis is 5-1 this season when Wainwright has started. The right-hander has a 2.60 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP. Colorado is 8-17 versus right-handers.

The Cardinals are 12-5 in their last 17 away contests. Their confidence is high. The Rockies are struggling. They really miss their injured star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. He's their version of Derek Jeter.

Free Pick: Cardinals +120

The San Diego Padres are batting under .200 during the past three weeks. They have scored less than three runs in eight of their last 18 games.

Atlanta starter Jair Jurrjens has a 2.25 ERA during his past three starts. Foes are hitting just .101 against him during this time span. The Padres have yet to see him.

But Padres starter Chris Young can keep San Diego in this game. Young has yielded two runs or less in all but one of his six starts this year. He has yielded just three earned runs during his last two starts, spanning 13 innings against the Giants and Phillies. He's allowed just seven hits during this time while fanning 16.

The total is too high considering the quality of these two starters and the Padres' pathetic offense.

Free Pick: Padres-Braves Under 9 (-115)

Is Roy Oswalt back to his previous All-Star form? I'm willing to lay this price to find out based on Oswalt's home history and the Astros getting second baseman Kaz Matsui back from the DL.

Oswalt was shelled during his first three starts this season, yielding 16 earned runs in 16 innings. But he came back strong in his last outing, allowing one run in seven innings during a 2-1 victory against the Phillies. Oswalt has won 77 percent of his decisions at home the past five years. During the past five seasons, Oswalt's home ERA has been 1.91, 2.72, 2.87, 3.33 and 2.45.

The Padres rank among the four worst teams in many of the major offensive categories, including runs scored, batting average and home runs. Until scoring nine runs on Sunday against Randy Johnson and the Diamonds, they had tallied just six runs in their previous four games.

Padres starter Justin Germano does not worry me. The Astros are off a huge come-from-behind victory at Minute Maid Park against Colorado that restored a lot of confidence. Matsui is back from missing 16 games providing spark and a steal threat.

San Diego has dropped eight of its last 11 away contests. The Astros have defeated the Padres in eight of the last 10 meetings when Oswalt has taken the mound.

Free Pick: Astros -140

The oddsmaker has to know Houston's Wandy Rodriguez rarely loses at home. So it's just a case of lack of respect why Rodriguez is at such a low price facing Colorado's Aaron Cook.

The Astros were 11-4 during Rodriguez's 15 home starts last season. He had a 2.94 ERA and 1.10 WHIP pitching at Houston in 2007. Rodriguez has been even better at home this season in two starts. The Astros have won both of his home starts and Rodriguez has a 0.63 ERA. He's pitched 14.1 innings at home, allowing eight hits, one earned run with a walk and 13 strikeouts.

Fade Rodriguez on the road; play him at home. It's that simple, especially when the price is low and his opponent is Aaron Cook. The Rockies are 9-20 the past three years in Cook's road outings. Cook has a 5.25 ERA this season in two road appearances.

The Rockies could really feel fatigued after playing 22 innings on Thursday and another nine innings last night. Their bullpen has worked 25.1 innings the past four days. The Astros have defeated the Rockies 11 of the past 14 times the two teams met in Houston.

Free Pick: Astros -106

While the Arizona Diamondbacks were enjoying a day off on Thursday, the San Diego Padres were playing a 22-inning marathon game against the Colorado Rockies that extended into Friday. They are going to be a tired team traveling to Arizona.

Making it worse for the Padres is they face Dan Haren, who has some of the nastiest stuff in the majors. Haren is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA this season with three quality starts in three outings. He's especially tough on teams that have never seen him before such as the Padres. The Diamondbacks are playing well, having won 10 of their last 12 games. They are 16-5 during their past 21 home contests. They are leading the majors in runs scored and home runs.

Chris Young goes for San Diego. He's a great home pitcher, but struggles on the road. His road ERA was 4.52 last season. He looked terrible in his last start, which was at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers got to him for six earned runs in three innings, hitting two home runs.

Young has had more trouble versus Arizona than any other team. The Padres lost all three of Young's starts to the Diamondbacks last season. He has a 7.32 lifetime ERA versus the Diamondbacks.

Free Pick: Diamondbacks -140

NOTE: A late pitching change has Greg Maddux starting for San Diego in place of Chris Young.

The Florida Marlins have some talented young hitters. What they don't have is good fielding, the ability to get key hits with men in scoring position and an experienced, good starting pitching staff.

The latest not-ready-for-prime-time pitcher the Marlins are trotting out is 25-year-old Burke Badenhop, a guy who has thrown more than 400 innings of minor league ball. This is his major league starting debut.  How good is Badenhop? I'll put it to you this way: The Marlins decided to keep recently demoted Rick VandenHurk in the starting rotation rather than break camp with Badenhop as a starter. VandenHurk may have been the worst starting pitcher in the National League.

The Marlins have dropped six of their last eight games in Houston. They are expected to start Wes Helms at first instead of Mike Jacobs. That's a dropoff.

The key question is if the favorite price on Houston is justified with Wandy Rodriguez on the hill? It sure wouldn't be if Rodriguez were pitching in any place but Houston. He's 3-10 with a 6.41 ERA away from Houston since the start of last season. But at home, Rodriguez is 6-3 with a 2.73 ERA since the beginning of 2007. It's hard to figure this kind of home/road dichotomy.

It's not hard to figure that the price is right to lay in this matchup with Rodriguez at home. The Astros are 13-4 (76 percent) at home the past two seasons when Rodriguez has been the starter.

Free Pick: Astros -137

Look up home/road dichotomy and you'll find a picture of Houston left-hander Wandy Rodriguez. He's the poster child for home/road dichotomy.

The first rule of thumb in betting bases is fade Wandy on the road, back him at home. Rodriguez was 3-10 last season away from home with a 6.37 ERA. But pitching at Minute Maid Park last year, Rodriguez was 6-3 with a 2.94 ERA. The Astros were 11-4 during his home starts in 2007.

Neither the Cardinals nor Astros project to have good seasons. St. Louis has gotten off to a surprisingly strong start. Don't expect that to continue, though, if Troy Glaus and Albert Pujols don't start showing their power. Glaus is batting .190, while Pujols has driven in one run.

The Astros are 2-5. However, they have lost four games by a total of five runs. They very well could have a winning mark.

Rodriguez was 1-1 in two starts versus St. Louis last season with a 2.40 ERA. Cardinals starter Todd Wellemeyer is still learning to pitch at the major league level. He has been exceptionally bad during three appearances at Minute Maid Park with a 14.54 ERA in 4.1 innings.

Free Pick: Astros -114