Dave Malinsky

By waiting until game day, we have not been able to get the best of the number in this matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Houston Texans, but note that all that has done is lower our rating in a situation that is too good to pass up.

Over the course of a long football season the ball can take some amazing bounces, and they do not always correct. This game is a good example. Consider the following: Team A is a net of +82 first downs and +1,022 yards better than Team B, and has accomplished that vs. a tougher schedule (#7 vs. #14 on our best set of ratings). They come in with an added day of rest, with Team B having to travel off of a draining overtime game on Monday night.

So what is the line for this mismatch, the home team is 8 or -9? This is hardly the case, as this price does not even seem to be factoring in full home field advantage. That is what the oddsmakers are forced to do based on the standings, as the fact that the Bears take the field still alive for the playoffs.

But in this case the standings are not an accurate measurement of the teams at all, and once again we have a setting in which the need could actually hurt, rather than help, a team. Mediocre squads like the Bears will more often than not play poorly under pressure, rather than play well. And after three straight home games, it is an environment fraught with peril for Lovie Smith’s squad.

The Bear offense has struggled all season to find consistency, netting only 6.08 yards per pass and less than 4.0 per rush. Far too much has had to fall on the shoulders of rookie Matt Forte, and it has taken a toll.

Meanwhile a defense that has relied on the leadership of Mike Brown for so long will be without him this week, and note the issues that brings up for this particular matchup: both Kevin Payne and rookie Craig Steltz, who is forced into his first start, are natural strong safeties, who are better in run support than in defending the pass.

Matt Schaub and a deep corps of receivers can exploit that weakness, and we believe that they have the mentality to attack loosely and aggressively here. And while the special teams have been a major part of the Chicago success this season, key cogs Hunter Hillenmeyer, Marcus Hamilton and Kevin Jones are all expected to miss this one.

To get the better team in a relaxed and confident mode against a tight underdog is an outstanding situation, especially in this price range.

Free Pick: Texans -3 (-110)

We started the college football regular season by having a lot of success taking the SEC against a vastly inferior ACC when the right pairings were available, and what better way to spend a Saturday than by not only revisiting that particular concept, but also using an annual series that has provided meat to put between our bread many times?

Here is the gist of this one – Georgia has won seven straight against Georgia Tech, going 5-1-1 ATS in the process, and beating the pointspread by a combined 65½ points over those games. How do the oddsmakers miss such a series by an average of 9½ points per contest over such a span? Because basically we get the same layout each time – the previous two months Georgia Tech is taking on much inferior competition than Georgia, and it sets up perceptions that just do not match the true realities of the gap between these programs. It is the same again here, and with the marketplace helping to drop this one into our laps we can step in again.

The Yellow Jackets have adapted better to Paul Johnson’s offensive schemes than we thought that they would in his first season, but some of that has to be taken with a grain of salt – they were playing in a weak conference, and most opposing defenses were seeing these designs for the first time. Now they not only have to face a Georgia defense loaded with athleticism up front, but it is also a defense that has two full weeks to prepare for those tactics, including a chance to sit back and watch Tech on national television last Thursday night. That helps not just tactically, but the fact that the Yellow Jackets were blowing out Miami also fully alerts Mark Richt’s squad to the challenge that is at hand.

Not only does Georgia bring the defensive tools here, but that outstanding corps of skill players can make plays vs. a defense that has not seen anything near this class of offense all season. The emotions will run particularly high on the Bulldog sidelines, because we are being told that this will be QB Matthew Stafford’s last game between the hedges.

Stafford, Knowshon Moreno and the rest of the cast can exploit a Tech defense that will be without key LB Sedric Griffin (their third leading tackler), and S Dominique Reese, and while the Jackets do hope to have Jahi Word-Daniels back in the secondary, he has missed the last four games with a hamstring injury, and his timing will be an issue.

Free Pick: Georgia -7½ (-103)

We were not sure that we would ever be using the phrase, “The Kansas City offense is providing a major headache for their opponent this week” this season, but we indeed have that here vs. the Buffalo Bills. On a warm afternoon in the Midwest, it means that the points come easily in this one.

As each week goes by with Tyler Thigpen as the starting quarterback, we are seeing the Chiefs get more comfortable in their new offensive designs. Thigpen’s mobility enables them to spread the field and get a lot of receivers out into coverage, and he is doing a solid job of finding them, and as a result, the Kansas City offense has averaged 22.5 points over the last four games.

Thigpen completed 85 out of 140 passes for 945 yards during that span, with a sparkling ratio of eight touchdown passes vs. only one interception. And with Larry Johnson having had some game contact to get his timing back, there will also be a run balance that has been lacking for much of the stretch.

That style of play creates major headaches for the Bills. Not only do they have to travel off of a short practice week, which makes adjusting to these new looks difficult enough, but they will be missing starters Donte Whitner and Jabari Greer in the secondary, and possibly Bryan Scott, Whitner’s back-up, as well.

For a team that has struggled all season to get a pass rush (only 15 sacks in 333 opposing pass plays), that disheveled secondary is going to be hard-pressed throughout the game, especially since Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe, who each have 55 receptions already, can beat just about anyone man-to-man that Dick Jauron has at his disposal.

Jauron’s team can still win here, however, because they can score on their own. The Kansas City defense continues to shuffle lineups each week, and lacks both talent and chemistry. The Chiefs are simply without a strength, lacking the ability to stop the run (1,654 yards and 16 rushing TD’s at 5.1 per carry), rush the passer (six sacks in 316 pass plays), or cover receivers (65.8 percent completions and 7.77 yards allowed per pass).

It is the ideal unit for Trent Edwards to get his confidence back, which turns this into a game dominated by the offenses.

Free Pick: Bills, Chiefs Over 42 (-110)

Just another late-season game between two losing teams going through the motions? This is anything but that on one side of the equation, and we believe that Joe Tiller not only gets a chance to carry away the Old Oaken Bucket one last time, but does it in style. So in the kind of game in which the oddsmakers often struggle to incorporate the emotional factors properly, we have a most fair line to play a Purdue blowout.

The Boilermaker run under Tiller has been a special one, with 10 bowl appearances. And he has been more than a football coach at the university, also being awarded the “Order of the Griffin,” a special Purdue honor that is not tied to athletics. That means not only a concerted effort by the players to send him out with a final win, but also more than the usual fan support for a losing team playing their last game. And with 17 seniors slated to start for the last time on this field the emotion runs particularly deep, especially for QB Curtis Painter, who is finally healthy again, and can erase some of the memories from a disappointing season by exploiting a papier-mache Indiana defense.

Can Indiana make the same claims about wanted to erase bitter memories, and for the seniors to go out in style? No, it is an entirely different situation for the Hoosiers. Depth has been an annual problem for this program as the Big 10 battles take their toll, and note that they are an awful 4-13 ATS as underdogs in the last three games of the season since 2002.

But this autumn it has been even worse. Because of injuries a total of 16 different starters have missed at least one game, and the area hardest hit has been the secondary, where starting safeties Nick Polk and Austin Thomas, and starting CB Chris Phillips, have all been lost for the season. Because of this there is simply nothing left in the tank on that side of the ball, having allowed averages of 42 points and 518.3 points per game in three November outings, and against Wisconsin and Penn State the past two weeks they were out-scored 58-0 in the second half, a tell-tale sign that there is no fight left. And note that as bad as those two games were on the scoreboard, Indiana was actually +6 in turnovers over those eight quarters!

It is more than just emotion here for Purdue – this is a team that could have been much better than the results if not for so many injuries. But not only is Painter as close to full health as he has been in quite some time, Eric Hedstrom and Sean Sester will also be returning in the OL, after each missed the last two games. The pieces were back in place for a blowout anyway, but the special nature of Saturday’s setting pushes the rest of it over the top.

Free Pick: Purdue -11 (-110)

Back in an early-season edition of ”Verities and Balderdash,” we focused on the various elements that the 12-game schedule would bring into play, now that all teams are into the rhythm of that being the way of life. This game provides us with a classic example of how we can use one of those edges for our purposes, with a road favorite that may bring little or nothing to the table.

New Mexico will become the first team to call it a season, with the Lobos packing up all of their equipment when this one is over. It is a problem from two directions:

A team that has appeared in a bowl game for seven straight seasons certainly did not plan on the end coming in mid-November, and;

In playing 12 games in as many weeks, the Lobos are the only team at this level that did not have a bye week, and that means both physical and psychological issues for this setting.

The college football season is a long grind, and while there are often humorous references about the academic standards involved at this level, the bottom line is that most of these players do go to class. Much of the anticipated fatigue is negated by the fact that there are continually targets to shoot for – championships, winning seasons, bowl bids, and the last home game for the senior class. But what happens when those targets go away?

We see things like the listless New Mexico loss at U.N.L.V. on Saturday night, when there were still minor bowl hopes in play, and we do not expect to see anything special from Bronco Mendenhall’s team here. Not that they are capable of much anyway, which is one of the prime reasons why they will finish with their first losing record since 2000. The passing game could not deal with the loss of starting QB Donovan Porterie early in the season (they have not reached 200 air yards in a game), and that made it easy for opposing defenses to stack the line of scrimmage, rendering the offensive helpless on many occasions.

Contrast the flat Lobos with the spark that Colorado State will play with. Assuming that Utah goes 12-0 and earns the likely BCS spot that will come along with that, it means that a Mountain West bowl tie-in has been opened up, and Steve Fairchild’s Rams can qualify for that by winning here, and again at Wyoming next week. It is also the last home game for a senior class that includes starting QB Billy Farris, leading rusher Gartrell Johnson (only needs 71 yards to reach 1,000 for the season), and TE Kory Sperry, a potential NFL draft choice. They have beaten Houston and U.N.L.V. on this field, while also taking T.C.U. and Brigham Young to the final possession, creating a perfect 4-0 ATS run in which they have beaten the spread by 42.5 points. The hungrier and fresher team should not have any difficulty winning this one SU.

Free Pick: Colorado St +2½ (-110)

There will be a bit of a redundancy to this one, but after cashing 5* tickets with Arkansas in each of the first two appearances for Bobby Petrino’s team as an SEC road underdog, we are able to go to the well with outstanding value once again, with the markets now offering +13 across the board.

And in many ways it is the same logic now that we used earlier – a young Razorback team transitioning to a new coaching staff was in no position to take on the likes of Alabama, Texas and Florida in a three-week span, one of the toughest scheduling cycles we have ever charted. But that led to a complete over-reaction as the markets down-graded them off of those results, and that is a big part of why this line is so far off of where it should be.

Since that awful three-week cycle it has been a 2-2 SU but 4-0 ATS run for Arkansas, with the two outright losses coming by a combined three points, and note that those games were all against difficult competition (three of the four teams will definitely be in bowl games, while Auburn still harbors hopes). Now we do not need for them to take this game to the wire, but merely make enough plays to hang around, and that is not asking much at all vs. a pedestrian South Carolina offense that is not a threat to open much breathing room. With a top-notch runner in Michael Smith (987 yards at 5.3 is remarkable considering the schedule he has been up against), and the maturing of Casey Dick in the Petrino system (he has some very talented young receivers to work with), the Razorback offense brings much more potential to the table then their favored opponents in this one.

South Carolina is only averaging 20.5 points in SEC play, but in truth the offense has been even worse than that – there were three touchdowns scored directly by either the defense or special teams in those six games, and in half of those games they could not reach 290 total yards. The OL does not get much push, with leading RB’s Mike Davis and Eric Baker getting amic counts of 3.5 and 3.6 per rush, and even though we are now into November Steve Spurrier has not been able to get either Chris Smelley or Stephen Garcia to take over as the #1 QB. At this point he has not even named a starter for this week, saying that it will be based on who looks best in pre-game warmups (from the Old Ball Coach - “We really think to maximize our team we need to play both of them. ... because our offense has stunk.”).

The South Carolina offensive struggles play to our favor in more ways than one here – not only are the Gamecocks hard-pressed to score, particularly in terms of an inability to make big plays (their longest touchdown of the season was just 34 yards, and they only have one play of more than 50 yards), but because both QB’s have been mistake-prone, Spurrier may go as conservative with a lead here as he did vs. Tennessee last week, when there were 44 running plays vs. only 20 passes. That helps to keep the underdog in the hunt at a most generous pointspread.

Free Pick: Arkansas +13 (-110)

Old habits die hard, and so do perceptions that have been based on results for a long period of time. That is the case with the betting markets and their rating of Phil Fulmer and his Tennessee Volunteers right now.

Last week there was a major line move backing them against Alabama in the middle of the week that opened the door for us to cash a 4* ticket, and now we find ourselves in a similar position, with Wednesday’s Tennessee money now taking this one to the right plateau for us to back the much fresher and much better team in a bargain range.

The bottom line with Tennessee is that this team is nowhere near the outstanding squads Fulmer has turned out in the past, and the key for our purposes is that the decline actually started LY, but was not noticed. That is what happens when a team makes it to the SEC championship game. But it took some good fortune for that to happen – the Volts had two conference wins that came in overtime, and an additional escape vs. Vanderbilt by a single point in regulation. One of those overtime wins came against Steve Spurrier and Carolina, and it was a win that absolutely did not belong on the Tennessee ledger – the Gamecocks led by stunning counts of +15 in first downs and 184 yards in total offense, but they were -3 in turnovers, including two in the final 6:52 of regulation play.

Now fast forward and what was an only average Tennessee team in 2007 is an even weaker squad this time around. In opening 1-4 in SEC play the Vols have averaged only 12.2 first downs and 221.2 yards per game, which is why three of the defeats came by at least a dozen points. This is not a case of an offense that is misfiring, but rather one that does not have the weapons to make plays, and now that they are taking the field for the 8th time in as many weeks, there are levels of physical and emotional fatigue that make it most difficult to get any of that turned around.

Contrast their state of mind and body with that of South Carolina, which has had two full weeks to not only get physically fresh for this one, but to also let those films of LY’s defeat build an extremely high focus level. And that time off is a major tactical edge for Spurrier as well – it means a chance for some extended time with QB Stephen Garcia working with the first team offense, and that is going to create a one-two option at the position that the Old Ball Coach can use to frustrate opposing defenses, with Garcia’s mobility creating many more run options, and Chris Smelley changing the pace in the passing game.

This one is really won by the Carolina defense, however. The Gamecocks are #1 in the SEC and #6 in the nation in total defense, a success rate that has led to Ellis Johnson getting a contract extension during the bye week (from Spurrier - ”I think we’ve got the best defensive coordinator in the country”). His athletic group can completely stifle the pedestrian Tennessee skill players, and dominate field position throughout.

Free Pick: South Carolina -5 (-110)

If we wanted to completely insult your intelligence it would be easy to do that in this one – we could make a case that based on their game flows no team in the country turns it on in the fourth quarter more than the Utah State Aggies! Which is an absurdity, of course.

But with a line move dropping this one right into the heart of our play range, we can go to one of our very favorite axioms in all of sports – Most truly terrible teams are even worse than they appear to be. So let’s get to work.

Why are awful teams worse than they appear to be? Because they rarely take the best punch from their opponents, and often see the other side merely going through the motions as they save energy for more important games. Because of that the scoreboards and box scores do not get a chance to fully reflect their ineptitude. Utah State is an absolute textbook example of that. Here are the scores by quarters for the Aggies so far this season:

• 1st Quarter – 7-75
• 2nd Quarter – 35-82
• 3rd Quarter – 9-85
• 4th Quarter – 66-38

So if you go back to our statement in italics in the first paragraph, you can see how the statistical case can be made. This is a team that has scored 56.4 percent of all of their points in the fourth quarter, and also has held the opposition to less than half as many points in the final period as in any other. But those numbers do not reflect a positive in any way. Rather, they are an indication of just how awful this team is, and that so much of what has happened in the final period has been a case of the opposition completely letting up, on both sides of the ball. Here is what does matter. At the end of three quarters they have been trailing by a combined 242-51. And in the first and third quarters, when both teams come out fresh, it has been a combined 160-16. That is ugly.

Now things go from bad to worse for Brent Guy and his team. Instead of an opponent looking to coast, they are going up against a fresh and rested Fresno State team coming off of a bye, and it was a break that the Bulldogs needed in the worst way, getting injured talents like WR Marlon Moore, TD Bear Pascoe, DT Jon Monga healthy again. With no distraction the Bulldogs will treat this one seriously as they focus on improving their bowl picture, which means that they mentally will not wear down late, and physically they can keep piling up the points – three of the top seven rushers in the WAC operate out of this offensive backfield, a rather remarkable count. They are off of back-to-back games in which they have topped 300 yards rushing, and with only Wisconsin holding them under 5.0 yards per attempt in a game this season, they can completely wear out a defense that does not like getting hit head on.

There is also little home field advantage in Logan, where the crowds wane as each disappointing season wears on. In the Brent Guy era they have been a home underdog over the past five games of the season six times, going just 1-5 ATS. That negative count grows by one more in this one.

Free Pick: Fresno St -14½ (-110)

We were all set to attach a higher rating to the Yellow Jackets in this one before the Tommy Bowden departure caused that Monday market stir, but in this range it still holds up, particularly since Bowden’s dismissal adds an element of disorganization to a struggling Tiger team that did not need such a distraction.

The Clemson problem was really one of expectations that were set too high, which we focused on in turning that Alabama ticket against them in the opener (in retrospect, isn’t it shocking to have been able to take an underdog price on a neutral field between the teams?) and our NCAA ”Verities and Balderdash” column back on September 2nd. There were some decent skill players in the offensive backfield but the line in front of them was woefully inexperienced. Because of this they have never been able to get untracked on that side of the ball, and there is little reason to expect anything to get better – they have used five different OL combinations in six games, without a senior in the main mix, and only C Thomas Austin has started every game at the same position.

Now Cory Lambert, who has started at two different positions already, looks like he will not be able to start this week, forcing freshman Antoine McClain, formerly the back-up at RT, to start at RG, where his 6-5/325 frame does not make him a natural fit. You can not build chemistry through all of these changes, and an aggressive Georgia Tech defense front can dominate the line of scrimmage throughout in this one.

The OL is only the beginning of the problems on offense this week. After the dismal offensive showing in the loss at Wake Forest, Bowden announced that he was benching veteran Cullen Harper in favor of the inexperienced but more mobile Willy Korn, and then the fireworks began. The comments from Harper on Monday afternoon were most blunt.

"It's what he deserved. I'd call it karma. I thought it needed to be done. I think anytime a head coach or someone in a leadership position starts to place blame on his coaches and players, it weakens their respect on the team. His past experiences have shown he's done that."

When a veteran team leader is benched it not only causes that reaction, but a ripple effect through the other players as well, but new head man Dabo Swinney has indicated that it will still be Korn at QB. Not only does the freshman have that struggling OL in front of him, but there will also not be the comfort of having C. J. Spiller to carry the ball either. With both Bowden and offensive coordinator Rob Spence gone it is a most muddled situation, with even the stances of the linemen being changed this week by position coach Brad Scott. It is a recipe for major struggles vs. this class of defense.

Meawnhile we also focused on the Georgia Tech ground game in another ”Verities and Balderdash” column, as Paul Johnson’s schemes have worked quite well based on having mobile QB’s in Josh Nesbitt and Jaybo Shaw, talented runners in Jonathan Dwyer and Roddy Jones, and a big and physical WR corps that has done an excellent job of down-field blocking, and in the case of 6-3/229 Demaryius Thomas of catching the ball as well (18 receptions for 359 yards).

There is no reason to be concerned with last week’s sluggish showing vs. Gardner-Webb, when Nesbitt and Shaw were both held out to cure minor ailments (each had practiced during the week), and a team that has produced the season-high in rush yards allowed vs. every lined opponent so far this season has a chance to do it again, in a game in which their own defense should provide them with plenty of field position.

Free Pick: Georgia Tech -2 (-110)

There are few things that we do each week that are more important than “autopsies,” those processes of breaking down the games that go far beyond traditional methodologies, and in turn can lead to the kind of insights that can have us far ahead of the marketplace moving forward. And there can be nothing better in terms of finding future edges than an autopsy that shows that a patient was not even dead. That sets this one up for us.

In terms of the scoreboard result, our 4* play against Temple last week was as bad of a call as we have made on the college gridirons this season, and perhaps in several years. We were bucking a team that was struggling badly on offense because of so many freshmen playing key roles, and one that had not scored a touchdown in consecutive games since losing starting QB Adam DiMichele, and turning the reins over to red-shirt freshman QB Chester Stewart. Note that it was not even a case of Stewart truly winning the job anyway – Al Golden wants to red-shirt Vaughn Charlton, who had starting experience LY, and was merely using Stewart to bridge the gap until DiMichele can return.

Our interest peaked even more when Stewart did not practice last week, and was still wearing a walking boot on Friday. So what exactly did we learn in both viewing, and then doing a further autopsy on Temple’s 28-10 win at Miami O.? Mostly that the RedHawks are much worse than we thought they were. As for that Temple offense, note that the Owls had only 11 first downs, managed just 2.9 yards per carry, and for the second time in as many starts, Stewart completed less than 50 percent of his passes. It was not a case of Temple being good, but rather Miami being bad.

But that is not how the markets reacted. Miami closed at -7 last week, and now we find a much better Central Michigan team laying only -7½. It shows that the marketplace significantly upgraded Temple through that scoreboard result, despite the fact that many of the Owl weaknesses were still most evident (particularly the penalty issues that we wrote about last week, with Temple picking up nine more, taking the season total to 50 flags for 428 yards in only six games). And now we get the excellent timing of the Chippewas not only having two weeks to prepare, but of that very Temple scoreboard result also telling them that they can not take this opponent lightly.

This now gives us a veteran team (11 senior starters on offense and defense, with eight juniors) off of back-to-back M.A.C. titles that will play with a special focus on Homecoming weekend. And with the precision of QB Dan LeFevour leading the way they can exploit a young Owl defense. LeFevour leads the conference in total offense and is 11th nationally at 317.8 yards per game, but what we like even more is how this offense values the football, with only four turnovers in 363 snaps. His experience has allowed for a lot of no-huddle looks, which can befuddle a young opponent that did not face them last year, and will be on their heels throughout.

That also sets a tempo that forces Stewart and the Temple offense to have to open up from behind, something that they lack the ability to do. It all adds up to a game that can break wide open, yet is being offered at a bargain rate.

Free Pick: Central Michigan -7½ (-110)

One of the biggest single-season pointspread adjustments we have ever seen has taken place in this series, and only partially for the right reasons. So with a lot of flawed logic creating that line we not only get outstanding value, but the right timing to take advantage. Yes, the Hawaii program has fallen since losing June Jones and Colt Brennan. But not nearly as far as the market perceptions.

Here is the key – at 0-3 SU and ATS in lined games, the oddsmakers must keep adjusting until they find a Hawaii “buy” point with the public, which does not like to back teams that open the season on a winless ATS run. But in truth no adjustment needs to be made this week.

If a team opens 0-3 ATS that can mean that they are being priced wrong, but that has not been the case. Instead it has been a stunning -15 turnover differential for the Warriors in those games that have lead to the scoreboard results, and if anything what happened on Saturday night is a clear buy signal for us.

Hawaii lost 20-17 to San Jose State, a late night (early morning, for most) result that was close enough to the spread to not raise any eyebrows. But we certainly noticed. Hawaii led 18-11 in first downs, 356-237 in total offense, and a commanding edge of 5.5 yards per play vs. only 3.5 allowed. But the Warriors were -6 in turnovers. Yet despite that turnover gap, the game was tied until a late Spartan FG won it. To be -6 in turnovers and still be tied with 2:00 remaining is actually quite an achievement, and it is the kind of thing that the markets can miss.

So what do we have going forward? An undervalued team, and excellent timing to use them. Let’s look at the value first. Two years ago Hawaii was favored by -4 on this field, and won 68-37. Then last year the Warriors were -18 at home, and won 37-30, after leading 37-16 in the fourth quarter. Yes, things have changed. They are weaker and the Bulldogs are a bit better. But to go from -18 at home in '07 to +22½ on the road is a staggering adjustment.

Now for the particulars. We turned a 4* play against Fresno State last week, partially because of those Bulldog injury issues in the DL, and once again they could not stop the opposition. U.C.L.A. had season-highs in points, rushing yards and total offense, a week after Toledo had season-highs of points, rushing yards and total offense. Now we find the Bulldogs a bit drained off of that opening salvo of Rutgers-Wisconsin-Toledo-U.C.L.A., which taxes their depth on defense and makes the focus here merely one of winning and moving on.

Fresno State's Pat Hill noted, "This team is playing very hard through heavy legs and playing through a lot of travel. That stuff takes its toll on a team. It's been a long four games."

And while Hawaii is still predominantly a passing team, there have been adjustments made that can go right into those very Bulldog weaknesses. Inoke Funaki will be the starting QB for Hawaii this week, with his athleticism adding some new dimensions to the attack, and some option packages being installed to take advantage of that. That makes for a difficult week of preparation for Fresno, and the more work that Funaki gets the more effective he will be.

QB coach Nick Rolovich expressed it well when he said, "Obviously, turnovers hurt. But if you look at the plays he made when nothing was there, he got three first downs that should have been sacks, he kept drives going and for the most part, went through his progression and was disciplined in the offense."

We will look for him to be even better here, while leading rusher Kealoha Pilares, who left early on Saturday after suffering a mild concussion, has also been cleared to return, creating an offensive balance that keeps the underdog in the hunt for a long time in a game that may never get anywhere near a mountain of a pointspread.

Free Pick: Hawaii +22½ (-110)

Games in this pointspread range have to be broken down differently from others because of the obvious talent mismatch. These ATS outcomes are decided more based on the intensity of the teams, and it should not come as a surprise that we have landed here, because the service academy teams have been good to our pockets for a couple of decades when we could isolate the right spots.

These are disciplined athletes that are going to play hard for the full 60 minutes regardless of how the scoreboard reads, which is exactly what you want in an underdog in this price range, while at the same team the superior team is also more inclined to back off early, and not embarrass a service academy. With Army this week we get even more.

The Black Knights are 5-0 ATS as underdogs in the State of Texas the past six seasons, and we have put many of those results into our portfolio. There is a prime reason for those showings – they annually get more players from this state than anywhere else, and this season is no different with 27 Texans on the roster, including five starters. These trips mean something special to these athletes, and this one even more so because of Hurricane Ike. A lot of those Army players are from areas that were impacted, and we will let coach Stan Brock take it from there.

"It will be a big deal because this is the first time that these guys have seen their families since the hurricane went through there. Hopefully, some of the freshmen can step up in practice and make the road trip." Brock said. "We have six freshmen that we are hoping can travel so they can go home and see their family."

The energy that those freshmen brought to the practices this week is something that will be infectious for the entire team, and veteran starting guard Brandon Cox, from Schertz, TX, echoes the sentiments.

"Going home, seeing a bunch of family, having everyone come to the game, it’s going to be fun, going to be exciting. I’ve been to Kyle Field two or three times with my grandfather, he’s an alum there. I’ve been to a couple of games and the atmosphere is unbelievable."

The key on the field is that the Black Knights also help to tactically get the game home as well. Brock has gone to an all-out option package on offense, looking to slow the game tempo down whenever possible. That has led to some stodgy offensive snap counts through the first three games, keyed by an Army offensive ratio of 161 running plays vs. only 39 passes. That will not change here – they will stay with the ground attack regardless of the game situation, and that will severely reduce the opportunities that the favored Aggies will have to get near this pointspread. Making it even more difficult is that A&M simply is not very good, particularly in the area of rush defense, which matters so much this week.

Texas A&M has already lost outright to Arkansas State on this field, and was not competitive in last week’s 41-23 loss to Miami, a game that was nowhere near what the scoreboard showed. The Aggies scored on the first snap from scrimmage, a 62-yard touchdown pass from Jerrod Johnson to Mike Goodson, and then were bullied by an embarrassing 41-3 fashion until the Hurricanes backed off late in the game.

Note that in the only A&M win it was a +3 turnover advantage at New Mexico that did the trick (the Lobos led 370-236 in total offense), and that this defense is allowing 210 yards per game overland, at an alarming 5.7 yards per carry. That weakness enables Army to get some first downs and keep the clock ticking, which turns this pointspread into Mt. Everest.

And even should the Aggies get a few big plays to get near the number, Mike Sherman is not the kind of coach to pile it on here, particularly with the Big 12 opener at Oklahoma State immediately on deck. He would be more than satisfied to get a win by far less than this spread, and to get his starters out of the game as early as possible.

Free Pick: Army +28 (-110)

One of our favorite settings in college football through the years comes up in this one, and yet it is one that we have never developed a catch phrase for. A “No-Sizzle” favorite? We will have to do better. What we have is a superior team that brings a defense that can absolutely dominate the opposing team’s offense, and the mind-set to do so. But because they lack sex appeal, the number is short.

The public is always enamored with big favorites that are explosive on offense, since those teams can score into the 40’s and 50’s to break games wide open. As such, the oddsmakers have to make particular adjustments for those settings. But the favorite that can completely shut down the opponent often has an even better chance of covering the spread; they are just not as likely to do it in explosive fashion. That is Boston College this week.

The Eagles' front seven on defense is among the best in the nation, and through the first two games the defense has allowed only 17 points, 24 first downs and 485 yards. Those games were against opponents that had mobile QB’s (Justin Edelman for Kent State and Josh Nesbitt for Georgia Tech), and dynamic lead RB’s (Eugene Jarvis for Kent and Jonathan Dwyer for GT). Now they face a young Central Florida offense that has neither. In fact, the Golden Knights do not have much of anything offensively.

We do not think much of Michael Greco at QB. We do not think much of his receivers. And in all of the years that we have charted college football, falling down from the 2,567 rushing yards and 29 rushing TDs of Kevin Smith to a current RB corps in which the top three on the depth chart are all freshmen, is one of the biggest single-position drop-offs we have seen. Even the OL only brought back two starters from last year. So how has this played out?

In the opener against lowly South Carolina State they managed only 318 yards, and it was 7-0 well into the 4th quarter of a 17-0 win. As for that overtime thriller vs. South Florida, go back and review. Even with the added possession in O.T. they could muster only 12 first downs and 226 yards, and the game would likely have ended 24-10, with their only touchdown coming on a punt return, if South Florida had not set up the late sequence by throwing an ill-timed interception with a little more than three minutes left.

Yes, there should be some concerns about the Boston College offense after three second-half turnovers turned their game around vs. Georgia Tech. But as we wrote in the first paragraph, the “mind-set” is right where we want it to be. The Eagles have had two weeks to build up some frustrations off of the Tech loss, and with only Rhode Island on deck there is absolutely no holding back. That means that they bring a knock-out punch to the table against an opponent that clearly has a glass jaw.

Free Pick: Boston College -10 (-110)

Some of the biggest over-reactions in any sports calendar year come after the first week of NFL play. It is the only sport left where the betting public is still a significant factor in the setting of the lines, and that puts some outstanding situations into our laps. This is one of them, now that we can take the Chargers at +1.

San Diego buried Denver over eight quarters last year. The two games were won by a combined 64-6, with the scoreboard a pretty accurate reflection of what was happening on the field – the Chargers won the total offense by 297 yards. And with San Diego only scoring seven fourth quarter points, we can see that both games could have been even worse. And 2007 was not really anything new – the previous season brought a pair of wins by a total of 36 points, so the Chargers own a 4-0 advantage with Philip Rivers as the starting QB in this series, winning by an average of 23.5 per game. But now here come the Week 1 results in which these two teams fell a combined 35.5 off of the oddsmakers projections, and that leads to the usual leaping to the wrong conclusions.

The Broncos problem in this matchup last season, and in general, was a soft defensive front that could be controlled at the point of attack. So what did we see in Monday’s 41-14 rout of Oakland? A soft defensive front that could be controlled at the point of attack. Raider RBs Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden rambled for 143 yards at 5.3 per carry, but they could not run the ball more because their own defense took them out of the game. We rarely find teams in a favorite’s role that have such a negative matchup in that key area of the game.

Meanwhile there was nothing to be particularly alarmed about in that San Diego loss to Carolina. LaDanian Tomlinson ran for 97 yards at 4.6 per carry and Philip Rivers threw three touchdown passes without an interception. The defense was a disappointment, but that helps from a mental standpoint here. It creates a “backs to the wall” setting from a talented unit, and now that they know that Shawne Merriman is gone for the campaign they can bring the proper focus to make the adjustments.

The DL of Jamal Williams, Igor Olshansky and Luis Castillo has dominated the Bronco OL in those recent routs, and with the latter still trying to build chemistry with Casey Wiegmann at center (Tom Nalen will miss at least another week) and rookie Ryan Clady at RT, we can confidently back the Chargers to control the trenches on both sides of the ball.

We don’t find this price range often when one side controls the line of scrimmage the way that we can project this flow to be.

Free Pick: Chargers +1 (-110)

The marketplace is making a most unusual statement when they make a team with a 10-25 road record a visiting favorite against a quality opponent, and we believe that tonight’s particular setting makes the Braves even more vulnerable. So count us in.

Situations like this one are most rare in the majors;  Atlanta is playing in the fourth different city in six days, and third in three. Making the adjustment more difficult is that the Braves had to play Sunday evening at Anaheim, instead of an afternoon start, and that they have also lost an hour in the time zone transition each of the last two days.

That can be even further exacerbated by having to adjust to a ball park that they have precious little experience in (they have not been here since 2005), and while Tim Hudson brings decent form to the table, which is a prime reason why Atlanta is favored, he also brings issues as well.

Hudson, along with Mark Teixeira, has plenty of experience at Arlington, but it has not been good - he has worked to a 2-4/6.23 from this mound over his career. He also faces some left/right bias issues (left-handers have hit 27 points higher against him this season, and all seven home runs have come from hitters batting from that side) against as potent of a group of left-handers as any lineup can produce. And taking it a step further is a temperature that is expected to be in the upper 80’s at first pitch. That is going to make it tough for Hudson to go deep into the evening, and that muddled Atlanta bullpen is no match for this class of offense in this park.

There is also value here because Vicente Padilla’s solid 8-3/3.89 has simply not caused a ripple anywhere. The Rangers are 11-3 in his 14 starts, and the heat is actually something that he is most comfortable with - he has been able to work to a 3.27 from this mound so far, on the heels of a 4-3/3.28 last year. And while the Braves come in tired, the Rangers had yesterday off to bring all bullpen arms fresh for the latter stages. It all adds up to tell us that the wrong team is favored.

Free Pick: Rangers +106

The Detroit Tigers got a win that they needed in the worst way last night vs. these Arizona Diamondbacks. We think they can get another against Randy Johnson, and the fact that they are underdogs in this setting gets us in play.

Johnson’s 3-1 individual W/L mark is one of the biggest flukes of this baseball season. He has allowed 24 runs in 31.2 innings, 19 earned, and is merely a shell of what he once was. An even better indicator is his last three starts, were he has worked to an 8.40 ERA tune over 15 innings, allowing 24 hits, four of which left the park. Yet he went 2-0 in those games, and Arizona won the no-decision. Keep winning, and your reputation does not take such a huge hit, but a pendulum swinging like that begs for a reversal, and note that as bad as Johnson statistics appear, he has been most fortunate in terms of scheduling - there are 74 National League pitchers that have worked at least 30 innings so far; Johnson’s difficulty of batters faced checks in at No. 72. There is little that he can show the veteran Tiger lineup that they have not seen before, and the way that they have been mashing left-handers should continue.

We have dealt with the anomalies in Nate Robertson’s statistics so far this season - despite being right around his career levels in all key peripheral categories he sits at 1-4/6.04, but that suits our purposes just fine - it helps us to be able to play in an underdog price range. He is not a super talent, but over time will get his base ERA will revert back near the 4.34 level that he worked over 583 innings in the last three seasons prior to this one. And with only Orlando Hudson and Chris Burke having faced him before, he carries the usual advantages of a left-hander against an opponent getting a first look.

Keep in mind that while the Diamondbacks are 27-16 so far, that breaks down to 20-5 against N.L. West opponents, but just 7-11 against all others, including 2-8 against non-division opponents without Brandon Webb or Danny Haren on the hill. There is plenty of value here on a day in which we are backing the Tigers at the right time.

Free Pick: Tigers +120

By calling for this contest between the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers to reach double figures as the “coin toss” level for this one, the oddsmakers are projecting this game like a warm summer afternoon with each of these teams having all hands on deck. That is far from what we have here. Instead the projection is for a cool and dreary afternoon in Detroit with the wind blowing in, and a pair of offenses that are not capable of living up to their reputations right now will be hard-pressed to get this one near the high Total.

The Yankees show a clear vulnerability to left-handers, and it will be that way until they can get Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada back in the lineup. That means a chance for Nate Robertson to begin to get his base numbers down near where they belong, and it is the out-of-sync season by Robertson that helps to bring us this value. The pitching forms show Robertson at 1-4/6.64, and that looks like quite a fall for a guy that worked to a 4.34 tune over 583 innings from 2005-07. But is that really the case? Over the last three seasons, Robertson created the 4.34 by producing a 1.38 WHIP,with 3.0 Walks-Per-9; 5.8 Strikeouts-Per-9; and 1.2 Home Runs-Per-9. Yet so far this season his WHIP is 1.55; walks are 2.4; Strikeouts 6.9; and Home Runs 1.3. In other words his stuff has not fallen off at all, but an inordinate percentage of runners that have reached base against him have scored. That is the sort of thing that can happen over a short sample in baseball, but the bottom line is that Robertson has thrown the ball at a rate that could call for an ERA two full runs lower than where it is. We get value when that happens.

Meanwhile Andy Pettitte continues to be Andy Pettitte - a solid and dependable 3.77 over his first 43 innings this season, with good command of the strike zone (12 walks), and an almost 2:1 ratio of ground-ball outs to fly outs. And we can expect the Yankee veteran to work with a special chip on his shoulder here - two starts back he carried a lead into the 5th inning vs. these Tigers before seeing it slip away, and in his last outing he left with a lead against Cleveland that the bullpen did not hold. That bullpen is well-positioned to handle the latter stages here, much like they did yesterday, when Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera only needed 21 pitches to retire the side in the final two innings.

Neither of those two bring a fatigue rating to this one, and it is worth noting just how good Rivera has been this season - 10 saves already, not having allowed a single run.

Free Pick: Yankees, Tigers Under 10 (-120)

After cashing an easy ticket with the Spurs on Friday night this one should not be coming as any surprise at all. The only surprise is that the market is allowing us to take a full +4, so let’s get to it while it is still there.

It took Gregg Popovich and the Spurs some time to figure out how to deal with the Phoenix defense with Shaq on the floor – they suffered two ugly regular-season losses, and then fell behind big at home in Game 1 of this series. But in the second half of that game it all started to make sense. There is absolutely nothing that the currently configured Suns can do about their pick-and-roll plays. Without Shawn Marion, who could try to lock up either Tony Parker or Manu Ginobli in the past, there is no one that can stop the dribbler man-to-man, and Shaq does not have the legs to stop penetration once the pick takes place. So San Antonio keeps doing it over, and over, and over again, and the series is now well in hand.

So what changes Sunday? Nothing. There was no mistaking the look in the eyes of the Phoenix players on Friday night, nor their post-game comments. They are a beaten team, and they know it, and at that mental state they would be the least likely to be able to make adjustments. The real key, of course, is that there are no adjustments to make anyway; that is all that Mike D’Antoni has to work with.

Steve Nash was a below average defensive player at the peak of his career, and now is among the worst defenders at his position in the league; Grant Hill tries hard but is not 100 percent; and Amare Stoudemire brings no defensive savvy to the table at all. For a team that genuinely believed that a championship was attainable this season there is nothing at all motivating about merely saving some face in a series that they can not win.

And then there are the Spurs. A team loaded with playoff experience knows full well what a win here means.  By becoming the first Western Conference team to clinch they can grab some extra time off before they take the floor again. As tough as the remaining opponents are going to be, that absolutely matters. We expect them to bring the right focus to take care of business here, and while the points being offered are a nice bonus, we fully expect them to win this outright.

Free Pick: Spurs +4 (-110)