Jim Feist

With the All-Star break fast approaching, a few teams that have had disappointing first halves will be hoping the second half of the campaign brings better results.  That includes the defending World Series champs from Philadelphia.

The first half of the 2009 baseball season is in the books. There were surprising winners, such as the Rangers, Giants and Marlins, a lack of hitting league-wide for the second straight season, and some surprising flops with the Indians, Cubs and Mets underachieving. Here's a look at some teams that might be active at the trading deadline or primed to make a second half surge.

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Indians: Since taking the Red Sox to Game 7 of the ALCS in October of 2007, even holding a 3-1 series lead, the Indians have fallen fast and hard. The offense is very good, but the Indians have been outscored 66-32 in the eighth inning and have unreliable starters after ace Cliff Lee. They dealt C.C. Sabathia a year ago and will be sellers this month.

Tigers: The Tigers have been the opposite of what most thought they would be: Good pitching, surprisingly weak offense. Justin Verlander is back as an ace, Edwin Jackson and 20-year old rookie Rick Porcello have been huge additions to the rotation, while Armando Galarraga is beginning to get it together.

The pitching has put them in first place. Now they have to get the offense straightened out, one that was fifth in runs a year ago and fourth in home runs.

"We're going to have to step it up the second half if we're going to stay in contention," said manager Jim Leyland. "I've been disappointed in our offense the whole first half."
 
Phillies:  The defending champs had a big time slump in June, so much so that manager Charlie Manuel called a team meeting in Toronto during their interleague skid. Despite that slide they still remained in first place in the weak NL East. J.A. Happ then went out and beat the Blue Jays 10-0 after that meeting.

Happ has saved the rotation of late, along with the setup/closer combo of Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge, more so than up and down Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton and aging Jamie Moyer. They should be in the market for some pitching help. The offense is not immune, with SS Jimmy Rollins ending a four-game benching last week with an 0-for-5 night that included two strikeouts, two groundouts and a pop-up. Oddly, they have a dominating road record but a weak home mark.

Cubs: With a $135 million payroll, the Cubs should be better. Ted Lilly, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Rich Harden anchor a fine rotation. They are first in quality starts in the majors and fourth in team ERA. The bullpen has been shaky and the offense has been a big disappointment, 27th in runs scored.

They dished out $30-million for three years for Milton Bradley, a .238 hitter. Alfonso Soriano is a nice weapon, but is struggling with a .230 average. 3B Aramis Ramirez has been out, but returns to the Cubs this week. Even he cautioned that he won't be able to turn the season around single-handedly. They should improve, but could it get ugly in Wrigley? A Chicago poll found 57 percent of respondents saying Zambrano should be moved.

"Fine. Trade me to Boston," Zambrano joked.

Angels: No team had more bad luck with injuries (and tragedy) than the Angels in April. From the loss of four projected starters, including the death of promising arm Nick Adenhart, one couldn't blame the Angels if the team collectively said, "We'll sit this year out." Yet, Mike Scioscia's troops have endured with incredible fortitude to come back and take over first place.

John Lackey has put together some solid starts, kids Sean O'Sullivan and Matt Palmer have filled in well, and Ervin Santana rejoined the Angels last week saying he felt no ill effects from a recent rehab start, in which he gave up three hits, struck out seven and walked none in 3.1 innings. All of which is great for the Angels, bad for the rest of the AL West.

Giants: If pitching depth carries a team during the hot summer months, the Giants will be a fascinating club to watch. The emergence of 24-year old Matt Cain to team with 25-year old Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum gives the Giants the best one-two punch in the NL. Throw in veterans Barry Zito and Randy Johnson, and the Giants are loaded with arms for the stretch run. The offense, though, is terrible, 26th in runs scored. They will be looking for bats and have arms to deal, a nice plus.

Starting pitchers just ain't what they used to be when going the distance in a game was the norm.  From closers to setup arms to middle relievers, bullpens are playing a bigger role in the outcome of games today.

Last week Cubs closer Kevin Gregg served up a two-run, walk-off home run to pinch-hitter Ryan Raburn in a 5-4 loss to Detroit. Lou Piniella's response was brief.

"Look, one-run leads on the road," he said. "Not the easiest thing in the world."

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The Cubs started 3-10 in one-run games on the road. Unreliable relief pitching can prevent hot streaks and sap a team's confidence. In addition, if a bullpen has to be used more it could potentially tax others in the pen for the next game or two. That is a problem the Washington Nationals have had, with a league-high in blown saves.

Bullpens are an important part of baseball wagering these days. Expansion over the last 16 years has diluted the pool of quality starters. Many teams look for a fourth or fifth starter just to go five innings and hope for as little damage as possible. All of which makes the guys coming in from the pen for the final four innings of those games even more important.

Cubs starting pitchers have had a sizzling 2.69 ERA in June, far and away the best in the National League, but have a .500 record. Their team ERA was  one of the best in baseball, tops in quality starters, but one of the worst in saves in the NL. The Cleveland Indians have had a frustrating 2009 season, bogged down by what has been an awful relief staff.

Relief pitching has become an intricate, often overlooked, part of baseball. Starting pitchers are often pampered, making relievers ever more important. In 1970, there were eight pitchers who topped 290 innings for the season. Four of them topped 300 innings, with Gaylord Perry leading the way with 329.  In 1980, Steve Carlton threw 303 innings, and as recently as 1988, pitchers Dave Stewart and Orel Hershiser each topped 300 innings in the regular and postseasons combined.

It is a very different ballgame today. Three years ago, only three starters topped 240 innings, with Livan Hernandez (246), Chris Carpenter (241) and Roy Oswalt (241) leading the way. Only two did it last season, C.C. Sabathia (253) and Roy Halladay (246). Relief pitchers used to be considered less-significant specialists or guys who didn’t have the strength to be starters. Now general managers build teams with the idea of having several middle relievers, one or two lefty specialists, and a reliable closer. For most starting pitchers, logging 200 innings, not 300, is the new watermark.

Money is part of the reason. Many pitchers are coddled in the minor leagues because teams don’t want to blow out the arm of a promising young pitcher. Expansion has made pitching the rarest of commodities and organizations would rather have a young arm go seven innings instead of nine to save wear and tear. Few pitchers complain about the lighter workload, as their livelihoods are at stake.

The case of the 1980 Oakland A’s starting staff has been well chronicled. Oakland had a talented young rotation of Mike Norris (age 25), Rick Langford (28), Matt Keough (24), Steve McCatty (26) and Brian Kingman (25). All pitched over 200 innings, with Norris throwing 24 complete games, Keough completing 20 and Langford leading the majors with 28 complete games. To put that in perspective, Halladay had nine complete games last season.

Old school manager Billy Martin thought pitchers developed arm strength by throwing a lot. That rotation developed more than strength: All five suffered arm trouble and flamed out fast as effective starters, prompting the rest of the baseball world to take note. The concept of the pitch count and coddling young arms was born, which is widely practiced today.

The bullpen is now a vital asset. No longer do teams put their worst pitchers in the pen and the Hall of Fame is slowly building a wall of talented stoppers. The 1990 Reds stunned the baseball world by upsetting the Pirates in the NLCS and the mighty A's in the World Series. Cincinnati stormed through the postseason with brilliant relief pitching in Norm Charlton, Rob Dibble and Randy Myers. Dibble and Myers were co-MVPs of the NLCS and when the Reds swept the Athletics in the World Series, managers around the league recognized how valuable a deep pen can be.

The Angels utilized a similar formula in winning the title seven years ago. Anaheim had a great offense, average starting pitching and a brilliant pen, anchored by Brandon Donnelly, Troy Percival, Francisco Rodriguez, Scott Shields and Ben Weber. In 2005, the White Sox had great starting pitching AND a deep, hard throwing young bullpen. The pen is mightier than the sword, but is it mightier than good starting pitching? Not if that pen can't get anyone out. Bullpen strength is a key component that can't be ignored - by baseball teams and baseball bettors.

C.C. Sabathia says his arm is fine, but the Yankees lefthander is fade material tonight when he takes to the Citi Field mound to face Mike Pelfrey and the Mets.

Yankees lefthander C.C. Sabathia only pitched into the second inning his last start before experiencing tightness in his throwing bicep. Not a good sign! Especially for a big name ace who is going to be favored a lot.

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He says he's fine, but all pitchers say that. It's unknown what C.C. will be able to bring to the hill for this game and he faces a Mets team that is tops in the NL in batting average and steals, and second in OBP.

Mets starter Mike Pelfrey is decent overall this season (5-2, 4.74) and unbeaten at home in new Citi Field. He has a 3.95 ERA at home and offers great value tonight at this price pitching against Sabathia. Play the Mets.

Free Pick: Mets +153

Trevor Cahill gives the Athletics the advantage on the mound Monday against the Giants' Jonathan Sanchez.  Back Oakland as the home favorites tonight vs. San Francisco.

The San Francisco Giants are in second place in the NL West, 8-games back of the Dodgers. The Giants have been decent this year with their 37-31 record and they are +9 in run differential.

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While the A's are in dead last in the AL West, they are actually closer to the first-place LA Angels (7 games) then the Giants are to the Dodgers.

Jonathan Sanchez starts for the Giants and its been a rough season for the southpaw. Sanchez is 2-7 on the year with a 5.43 ERA including a 0-3 mark in his last three starts with a 7.71 era.

The A's Trevor Cahill has been good with a 4-5 mark and nice 3.89 ERA. Unlike Sanchez, Cahill is 2-0 in his last three starts with a nifty 2.45 era.

Two pitchers here heading in opposite directions. We'll take the home club and bragging rights for the East side of the Bay.

Free Pick: Athletics -140

There are pitchers to follow and there are pitchers to fade.  Two of those go-against arms pitch in New York where betting odds are always on the inflated side.

Sports bettors can look at baseball starters in several different ways. One would be good starting pitchers who might be worth a look to support in the right situation with the right price. Another method is to look at overrated pitchers to go against. Some pitchers have past reputations of being very effective. This is especially true in the first third of the season when many bettors are still looking at last year's stats.

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However, this is a new season. Sometimes pitchers don't throw the same as last year, either because they are hurting, have changed teams, are in new ball parks, age is catching up to them or the World Baseball Classic messed them up. Here's a look at some starters who haven't pitched well, even if their records may suggest otherwise.

Chien-Ming Wang
Ouch, has this been ugly. A former 19-game winner who is still in his prime, but pitching horribly on a high profile team. Wang injured his ankle and missed the second half of last season. His velocity appears fine, but his command has been lacking. The worst thing is that his confidence appears to be taking a beating. With shaky confidence, no pitcher can succeed on the mound with so many people watching every five days.

John Maine
The other high profile team in New York has a struggling former ace of its own. Maine has had control trouble, walking 34 in 61 innings, which is uncharacteristic. He has weakness in the back of his shoulder and has skipped two starts, returning this week. His last start before taking some time off was awful, getting bombed by the Washington Nationals, 7-1, as a favorite.

Carl Pavano
After a decent start to the season, Pavano struggled badly last week. With Fausto Carmona being sent to Dingle-A it has forced the Indians' starters to move up a notch behind Cliff Lee. Pavano struggled for the second consecutive start, giving up six runs on nine hits over five innings. After pitching so well for an extended stretch, consecutive stinkers have to be troubling for pitching-starved Indians.

Kyle Davies
Kansas City has been a little better than expected, but this rotation is top heavy with limited help for ace Zach Greinke. Last week Davies earned his third win of the year, 7-4, against Cincinnati. However, he got through the fifth inning despite 100 pitches, while walking five batters in five innings. He is not a reliable starter and the team has already had a stretch at 0-6 with him taking the hill.

Jon Garland
Now we know why the 29-year old righty has been with three different teams the last three years. He has allowed over 200 hits in each of the last five years and is on pace to do so again with opponents hitting .293 off him. Garland gave up three runs on six hits over seven innings in a losing effort against Houston last week. He's taken the loss in each of his last five starts, and it doesn't help he gets little run support from the weak Arizona offense. Garland is not a strikeout pitcher, so opponents can put it in play. The D-Backs are 1-6 his last seven starts.

John Lannan
Washington is an excellent pitcher's park, plus being in the National League a pitcher doesn't have to face the DH. Lannan has decent overall numbers for a bad team, but a closer look finds that he's good at home but weak on the road, where opponents hit over .300 off him. Bettors take note: the last three years Lannan has been close to a .500 pitcher before the All-Star break, but averages a 5-9 record after.

Shairon Martis
The 22-year old Martis turned a few heads early in the season by getting off to a 5-1 start with a bad Washington team. However, the kid was more lucky than good, with an ERA close to 5 and walking more batters than strikeouts. Even though his overall record remains respectable, the team just went 1-5 in six straight starts, getting mainly no decisions. His strikeout/walk ratio (0.85) is a major problem.

Micah Owings
Cincinnati is searching for starters, but this 26-year old isn't providing quality innings or wins. He walks too many batters and the team just went 1-5 in six straight starts. Oddly, he's piled up his best numbers on the road, with the exception of wins and losses, where he has suffered most of his defeats.

Ian Snell
Snell has been pitching better, but the Pirates just went through a 2-8 stretch with him as the starter. He played in the World Baseball Classic, which may be the reason for his struggles, along with several other big league starters. Snell is only 27-years old and has been a good strikeout pitcher in his career, but walks have always been a problem. He is being offered in trade talks and should bring plenty of interest from contending teams or ones willing to look at him as a longer-term project.

The Athletics have been regularly cashing tickets when Josh Outman is on the mound, and that trend continues on Friday when Oakland travels to face the San Diego Padres.

After playing the Dodgers in LA this week, the Oakland A's now head to the bottom of the NL West to face the pitiful San Diego Padres.

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San Diego's offense is terrible and Oakland has a terrific young arm in Josh Outman. He's 4-1 with a 3.43 ERA, with 53 Ks in 65 innings.  The A's have won two of his last three starts, and six of the last eight, and the lefthander has 22 strikeouts against six walks in his previous four outings.

Opposing Outman will be lefty Wade LeBlanc who is being called up to replace Chris Young after the Padres placed the 6-10 righthander on the DL with a shoulder injury. LeBlacn was 1-4 this season for Triple-A Portland with a 4.08 ERA.  He was a September call-up last year for San Diego, starting four games and relieving in another.  Except for one quality start, LeBlanc proved very hittable with an 8.02 ERA and seven homers allowed in 21.1 innings of work.

San Diego has had a tough week, losing five in a row to the Angels and Mariners. Play the A's on Friday at Petco Park.

Free Pick: Athletics -133

Neither team has much offense, and the pitching matchup between San Francisco's Randy Johnson and Oakland's Josh Outman making the Under play even stronger.

Randy Johnson is not a dominant pitcher anymore, but during this run for 300 wins the old man has been highly focused for 5-6 innings, with a 2.12 ERA his last three starts. His slider still darts, too, with 61 Ks in 63 innings for the year.

Offensively, the Giants are terrible, ranked last in the NL in runs and OBP. Oakland is no offensive juggernaut, either, ranked 11th in runs in AL and a miserable .238 team batting average.

San Fran has never seen A's starter Josh Outman (4-0, 3.17 ERA), who has been sharp. A great spot for a low-scoring game. Play the A's/Giants under the total on Saturday night at AT&T Park in San Francisco when these two Bay Area rivals meet.

Free Pick: Athletics-Giants Under 8 (-125)

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No ballpark is the same in the majors, with some catering to hitters and others being pitcher friendly, and that often leads to some huge disparities in Home/Away records.

Baseball is unique in that every park is different in size and field configurations. This isn't true in any of the other sports. A football field is always 100 yards long, and both college and pro basketball courts are the same length, the only difference being the three-point line. Baseball is very different, with several small, hitter-friendly parks like Fenway Park, Coors Field, the Metrodome, Tropicana Field, the Ball Park in Arlington, and small home-run friendly parks in Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Houston and Cincinnati.

There are several parks with expansive outfields that are tough to hit home runs in, perfect for pitchers, such as Safeco in Seattle, Dodger Stadium, plus parks in Oakland, Detroit and San Diego. Smart organizations will construct teams around the strengths and weaknesses of their park. For instance, the Mariners and Dodgers have huge outfields and put a premium on the importance of speedy outfielders (Ichiro and Matt Kemp).

There is very little foul ground around first base in Fenway Park in Boston, as well as a very small left field because of the Green Monster. Historically, the Red Sox haven't paid much attention to having good defensive players at first and left field, preferring to go with strong offensive players, though that's not the case the last few years. The thinking was that they could get away with it for 81 home games, though on the road those weaknesses can reveal themselves, which is one reason the Red Sox are usually much stronger at home than on the road. On the way to winning the World Series in 2004, Boston was a respectable 43-38 on the road, but a sizzling 55-26 at Fenway!

They won the World Series in 2007 with an outstanding defensive team. However, this year's team has troubles at shortstop defensively because of an injury to Jed Lowrie. He is expected back later this month and they need him, as SS Nick Green is below average defensively and Julio Lugo is worse. The Red Sox have been great at home, but have a losing road mark, hurt by the lack of range at shortstop.

Strong all-around defensive and pitching teams can help diminish significant home/road differences. Toronto has been the big surprise in the AL East and they've done it by winning 31 of their first 41 games at home. On the road, though, the Blue Jays have a losing record. This may surprise you, but even a weak team like Kansas City is playing .500 ball at home, but started 10-19 on the road (through June 11). The Royals have offered value as a home dog, but have not shown much bite on the road.

The most remarkable extreme in the American League has been the Twins. The Metrodome is a tough place to pitch and play defense in with a short outfield and artificial carpet. The organization for years has taught its young arms to throw strikes, not walking anyone and don't worry about giving up a lot of hits. That's true with the 2009 Twins.  But that formula hasn't worked on the road, as they have been great at home but terrible away, starting 9-20. Minnesota just finished a 10-game road trip which was part of an 11-3 run under the total as the offense struggled.

The biggest surprise in the American League in 2008 was Tampa Bay. The Rays vastly improved their pitching and defense, starting 24-10 under the total at home. This season has been similar, with a sometimes free swinging/struggling offense, but very good pitching. They brought up young star lefty David Price recently during a 10-2-1 run under the total.

Baseball fans often talk of a Cubs/Red Sox World Series and they have a shot this season. The Cubs last won a World Series in 1908, looking to end a remarkable 101 year drought. By the way, the Cubs and Red Sox did meet in the World Series once, in 1918.

In the National League, the defending champion Phillies have been bizarre, with a losing record at home but the best road mark baseball. They were 48-33 at home last season and an impressive 44-37 on the road, so this team is not built just to win at home. One team that is built to win only at home is San Diego. The Padres have been one of the best examples ever since Petco Park opened, the toughest place to hit in baseball: The Padres can't score any runs at home or on the road. That is okay at home, where no one can score runs, as San Diego started 19-11. But on the road, the Padres are a disaster, starting 9-20.

The San Diego offense has consistently ranked near the bottom in most offensive categories because of the park the last three years. The Padres averaged just 3.5 runs at home last season where they started 22-13 under the total. In 2007 they started 19-11 under at home and this season started 16-9-3 under. Teams that play well on the road can avoid slumps by upgrading their defense and pitching, a key to success during a 162-game marathon.

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After dropping two close games to the Reds on Tuesday and Wednesday, look for the Nationals to avoid the sweep with John Lannan on the mound in Washington.

This isn't a bad Washington offense, ranked seventh in the NL in scoring and third in on-base percentage. It's the pitching that is the problem, though for this game they have a good one going in John Lannan (3.68 ERA).

Lannan has been particularly tough on the home mound this season. Over six starts in DC, the lefthander has tossed 44 innings while allowing just eight earned runs (1.76).  He is coming off a complete game, 4-hitter last Saturday vs the Mets when he gave up just one unearned run.

Cincinnati is weak in all offensive categories, plus starter Micah Owings (3-7, 4.90 ERA) walks too many batters (30 in 60 innings). A good spot for the home team. Play the Nationals.

Free Pick: Nationals -123

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Ted Lilly has already beaten the Astros twice this year in Houston and the Cubs are surging back in the NL Central.  Cash Chicago on Tuesday as small road favorites.

It's been a good week for the Chicago Cubs, taking three of their last four games that includes winning two of three over the Reds in Cincinnati this past weekend.

In Sunday's series finale at the Reds, Alfonso Soriano's solo home run off Mike Lincoln ignited a three-run rally in the 14th inning that the Cubs took charge in a 6-3 victory. Seven Cubs relievers combined for 7.1 innings of one-run ball.

Lefty Ted Lilly (6-4) has been great, with a 3.28 ERA and a sizzling 59-18 strikeout to walk ratio. He has faced the Astros twice this season in Houston already, with the Cubs winning both games.  In 13 innings vs. the Astros this year, he has 13 strikeouts without a walk, and the Cubs have won his last four start in Houston.

Houston starter Brian Moehler is awful, with a 6.37 ERA. He has a 13.50 ERA against the Cubs this season. Play the Cubs.

Free Pick: Cubs -124

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The move to the 2-3-2 format for the NBA Finals is supposed to prolong the series, but it hasn't always worked out that way with just two, seven-game series since the 1994 season.

The NBA Finals shift this week from Los Angeles to Florida, as the Lakers head to Orlando for Game 3, 4 and 5. Many fans find this odd, as all the previous series are in a 2-2-1-1-1 format, but then the Finals shifts to a 2-3-2 format.

It is odd, but there is a reason for the change: M-O-N-E-Y. The NBA prefers a longer series to build up interest and increase television ratings. The league won't admit it but the 2-3-2 format was instituted because it's theoretically tougher for a team to win the first two games at home, then win two of the next three on the road to close out a series in five games. The league doesn't want five games, it wants six or seven.

It also hasn't worked often. Since 1994 there have only been two, seven-game Finals. Over the last nine years the Finals have gone 5, 6, 5, 4, 6, 5, 7, 6, 4 and 6 games. Too many sweeps and five-game series, not exactly what television executives and ratings observers would like.

It wasn't always this way. The 2-3-2 format, which copies the World Series, was put into effect for the 1985 NBA Finals when the Celtics and Lakers met. Before that, the Finals had always been 2-2-1-1-1, which worked fine. In fact, from 1976-84 there were three seven-games Finals and five that went six games. Since 1985 under the 2-3-2 format there have more sweeps (4) than seven-game NBA Finals (just three, 1988, 1994, 2005).

Some players have even suggested that the team with home court doesn't really have an edge, being forced to play three road games in a row in the middle of the Finals. Not having home court appeared to help the Pistons five years ago, as they got a split in LA in the first two games, then came home and swept the middle three for the title. Three years ago Miami got back in the series, down 2-0, then sweeping the middle three at home.

When the Celtics defeated the Lakers in seven games in 1984 (the last of the 2-2-1-1-1 format), they took a 3-2 series lead by winning the key fifth game at home. That's an edge that won't be possible this Finals. A year later (1985) when the two met again, the Lakers won the fifth game at home to take a 3-2 series lead and went on to win the series under the new 2-3-2 format. After the series, Celtics star Larry Bird commented that he didn't like the format change, and didn't like the fact that the all-important fifth game was on the road even though his team had earned the home court via a better regular season record.

You can argue the same thing happened three seasons ago when the Mavericks went up 2-0 at home, then had to play three in a row in Miami. The Heat won all three, including the pivotal fifth game, putting the pressure on Dallas. The Mavs surely would have preferred to come home for Game 5.

Not counting this current series, over the last nine years the home team is 41-12 SU, 32-20-1 ATS in the Finals, while the favorite is 36-17 SU/27-25-1 ATS. Recent results show the home team stepping up and getting the money, while the favorite often wins but doesn't always cover. In fact, from 2001-2004 the home team went just 10-10 SU/6-13-1 ATS in the Finals.

Defense often rules this time of the year. Last year the Celtics and Lakers were in the top six in defensive field goal percentage allowed, while Boston was second in points allowed. Orlando and LA have reputations of being all-offense, but this may surprise you: This season Orlando is at 6th in points allowed and LA at 13th; plus the Lakers are sixth in field goal shooting defense while the Magic is third (43%).

Two years ago the Cavs and Spurs were in the Top 8 in field goal defense with the Spurs No. 1 allowing 89 ppg. Four years ago the Pistons and Spurs finished the regular season one and two in the NBA defensively and met in the Finals. This certainly adds to the long list of teams that have won titles with defense, supporting the old adage, "Defense wins championships." Don't discount the importance of defense this time of the year!

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Jason Marquis has been solid on the road lately for the Rockies.  Cash Colorado to snap a three-game skid on Wednesday night at the Houston Astros.

It's tough to back the struggling (and last place) Houston Astros, even at home where they have a terrible record (even worse than their road mark). This team is 14th in the NL in runs scored.

Starter Brian Moehler is struggling, at 2-3 with a 6.43 ERA. He has always struggled against the Rockies, with a 1-2 record and a 6.85 ERA.  Moehler is off a nice game against the Pirates, but that was on the road and at home in Minute Maid Park he is sporting an ERA over 8.50 in three starts this season.

Colorado starter Jason Marquis has been impressive at 7-3 with a 3.93 ERA for a last place team.  He pitched eight shutout innings in his last start, and has a 3-0 record with a 1.45 ERA in his last three starts on the road.

This is an excellent spot for the visitors. Play the Rockies.

Free Pick: Rockies -108

Pitching, pitching, pitching.  The Mariners own the best ERA in the AL while the Orioles rank near the bottom, and that should be the difference in their Monday contest in Seattle.

The O's have lost two straight games now after Sunday's setback to the Tigers, 3-0. While the Orioles are in last place in the AL East, they are still only 6½ games back of the Yankees.

Likewise, the Seattle Mariners are 6½ games back of AL West leader, Texas. The M's have allowed the third fewest runs in the American League (230). Seattle has the best ERA in the AL (.391) and in fact is the only team with a ERA in the AL under 4.00. Conversely, the O's have the second-worst ERA in the AL with a 5.33 mark.

Jarrod Washburn starts today for Seattle and is 3-3 on the season with a 3.45 ERA. Rich Hill goes for the birds and is 1-0 in three starts with a 6.14 ERA. Pitching is the key to today's matchup. The Mariners have it, the Orioles don't.

Free Pick: Mariners -124

It is no surprise that the Phillies are in the top five in the National League in batting, but what is surprising is that the Nationals are actually ahead of then. Go Over in Philly this afternoon.

The Philadelphia Phillies are in the thick of things in the National League East, just behind the New York Mets.

As strange as it sounds, the lowly Washington Nationals have the fourth best batting average in the NL (.267) and are just ahead of the Phillies (.264). However, the Nats pitching is dead last with a 5.67 ERA and whopping 1.637 WHIP.

Jamie Moyer's days in the majors are definitely numbered. Moyer is having a horrible season for the World Champion Phillies. The veteran southpaw is 3-5 on the season with a 7.42 ERA in nine starts. John Lannan hasn't been much better with a 2-4 record and 4.11 ERA for the Nationals. In fact, the Phils have hammered Lannan hard in his young career. Lannan is 0-4 lifetime against Philly with a 5.97 ERA.

Don't expect much of a pitching duel today as both teams can hit for average and power while the Nats pitching is just terrible. Moyer is well past his good days so expect a lot of runs here on Sunday.

Free Pick: Nationals, Phillies Over 10½ (-120)

While starting pitchers deserve and get a lot of attention from cappers, bullpen arms are too often overlooked.  As relievers are used more and more, smart money recognizes their impact on the game. Starting pitchers in baseball get much of the attention (and money) thrown their way. The average starter is asked to go 6-7 innings, while aces are expected to give 7-8 quality innings. Many games are decided in the last three innings, however, making relief pitchers an extremely important, and often overlooked, element.

The use of effective relievers is nothing new. Specialized closers were around in the 1960s, with terrific relievers like Dick Radatz, John Hiller, Luis Arroyo and knuckeballer Hoyt Wilhelm. During the early 1970s, the Oakland Athletics had a deep bullpen with Rollie Fingers, Dave Hamilton and Darold Knowles. That group helped win three straight World Series from 1972-74.

Then came the Big Red Machine, and Sparky Anderson had lights-out relievers in Will McEnaney and Rawley Eastwick. That has evolved into a situation where today managers league-wide use a variety of closers, middlemen and lefty/righty specialists.

It's important from a betting perspective to examine which teams have solid bullpen depth and which ones don't. Cleveland had a deep bullpen in 2007 that helped get them to the seventh game of the ALCS, but the pen has completely fallen apart the last two seasons. The Rockies had a lot of effective relievers that same season, which was a huge key in their shocking late 21-1 run that led to the NL pennant. This season and last has been a completely different story, with the bullpen struggling badly, just like the old days.

In 2007 the eventual champion Red Sox had outstanding starting pitching, with Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield going 6-7 innings almost every night. That took a load off the bullpen, which was outstanding while being used only sparingly. That's why starters who can stay healthy and eat innings have value beyond their numbers, as they can have a domino effect on the relief staff. This season, a deep Red Sox pen has made up for a surprisingly shaky starting staff.

The opposite has taken place the last three years with the Yankees, who've gotten little quality starting pitching and the bullpen has been overused. They have righted the ship of late, largely by getting some innings out of C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. Remember that a year ago at this time, after Chien-Ming Wang's 7 innings per start, Andy Pettitte was averaging under 6 innings, Mike Mussina was averaging under 5, while Ian Kennedy (4), Phil Hughes (3.5) and Kei Igawa (3) were shelled early and often. The team underachieved and failed to make the postseason.

The teams with the most saves? The Brewers and Mets (NY upgraded the bullpen with an expensive offseason). The Red Sox, Dodgers and surprising Rangers are also in the Top 10 list, a key to their early success. One of the teams with the most blown saves is the Angels, who clearly miss Francisco Rodriguez. The team with the most blown saves? The Washington Nationals (why does that not surprise anyone?).

Strong bullpens can help keep scoring down from the sixth innings on. A year ago, the Angels had a dynamite bullpen which helped fuel a stretch where they won 10 of 15 games, going 13-2 under the total. Over a nine-game stretch, the relievers didn't allow a run in 17 innings. It's been a different story in 2009, starting 14-7-1 over the total with a shaky pen.

The first-place Cardinals have been a great story and the key to their success has been a tough pitching staff, with the top ERA in baseball. Relievers Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan, Chris Perez and Trever Miller have been impressive. Veteran closer Franklin had only 17 saves last season and allowed more hits than innings pitched, so he's not your classic overpowering young stopper.

On the flip side is a team like Baltimore, making all kinds of moves bringing up newcomers into the starting rotation. Orioles righthander Koji Uehara is on the disabled list with a hamstring strain and they demoted former starter Adam Eaton. Righthander David Hernandez came up from Triple-A last week. He was the second of three rookies to debut, joining righthander Jason Berken and top prospect Matt Wieters.

If the kids can't throw a lot of innings, that can wear down a pen fast, something to keep an eye on. You can't pay too little attention to the pen, which is a huge part of baseball success today, on the field and at the betting window.

Mired in a nine-game losing streak, the Blue Jays look to get back on track at home in Toronto's Rogers Centre on Friday in the series opener with the Boston Red Sox.
Toronto is glad to be home after a miserable road trip, losing nine in a row and being swept in Boston, Atlanta and Baltimore. This is not an overrated team falling apart.

They lost three of those games by one run and another by two runs, 12-10 on Wednesday, blowing a huge lead. Most important, the Blue Jays were off a day to rest the bullpen and they are 16-6 at home. Toronto is tops in batting and fourth in runs scored in the AL.

An indoor park on turf is not a good mix for a knuckleballer like Tim Wakefield, who has a 6.27 ERA his last three starts after a red-hot start. This is a great place for the home dog. Play Toronto.

Free Pick: Blue Jays +109

The top two teams in the AL Central meet at Kauffman Stadium, and it should be a close battle between the Tigers and Royals.  Justin Verlander gives Detroit the edge on Monday.

The top two teams in the AL Central meet today in Kansas City as the Detroit Tigers take on the Royals.

The second place Royals look to close their three-game gap tonight as they send Gil Meche to the mound. Meche hasn't found the success this season as he's just 2-4 on the year with a 4.42 ERA. Meche has had success against the Tigers with a lifetime 8-4 record and 3.71 ERA.

The first place Tigers, winners of seven of their last 10 games, send Justin Verlander to the hill. Verlander is having a fine season with a 4-2 record and 3.99 ERA. Verlander has also had great success against the Royals with a 7-1 record and 2.43 lifetime ERA.

The Royals have the best ERA in the AL and the Tigers have the fourth best, so expect a close, hard-fought pitching duel here on Monday. However, Verlander's career success against the Royals coupled with his fine season is too much to pass on. We'll take the visitors here on Monday.

Free Pick: Tigers -130

All the preseason hype surrounding the Cleveland Indians has been debunked with their 16-27 start sinking them all the way down to last place in the AL Central.

Every year there are surprises in baseball. This season there has been plenty of focus on the surprising play of the Rangers, Brewers, Blue Jays and Royals.

Less attention has been paid to the busts, those teams that have perplexed and disappointed prognosticators. Here's a look at some teams that have struggled and what has gone wrong.

Cleveland Indians
After reaching the 2007 ALCS, the Indians have fallen fast. What happened? The offense has been erratic for the second year in a row, though they are second in the AL in on-base percentage. Mainly, the pitching that carried them to the seventh-game of the 2007 ALCS has disappeared. Fausto Carmona has gone from 19-game winner to bust as teams have sat on his sinker with his walks way up.

The bullpen is terrible, with new closer Kerry Wood stuck with an ERA over 7.00. Last week he blew a three-run lead in the ninth, turning victory into defeat to the Royals. It was also a dead under the total game – until Wood collapsed. A year ago they traded ace C.C. Sabathia after a disappointing start, and now ace Cliff Lee and DH/catcher Victor Martinez are rumored to be on the block. Fire sale, anyone!

Minnesota Twins
A surprisingly bad bullpen and poor road play have been the problems for what should be a better Minnesota team. They have good young offensive players, plus a starting trio of Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano along with ace closer Joe Nathan. But the pitching ranks 12th in the American League with weak middle relief, and they've gotten few quality starts, compounding the problem. They've been very good at home, but a brutal 4-14 start on the road.

Chicago White Sox
The White Sox won the World Series in 2005 but have proven to be one-year wonders. They were drooling over San Diego ace Jake Peavy in a possible deal this past week, but Peavy can't hit. Chicago is 13th in the AL in batting average, 14th in runs with little speed. They also lost 14 of their first 21 road contests.

Why are the White Sox so fired up for Peavy? The ace of the Padres' staff started 3-5 with a 3.82 ERA but has 69 strikeouts in 61.1 innings. Still, San Diego is a great pitcher's park, and notice Peavy is 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA on the road. Last year he had a 1.75 ERA at home, 4.28 on the road. And he will be coming to the American League. Pitcher's don't get better numbers heading to the AL (see Josh Beckett, 2005-06).

Florida Marlins
The Fish were the big story the first three weeks of the season with a sizzling start. But that was a hundred years ago it seems, as the Marlins have stumbled since.

The numbers tell the story: 14th in batting average, 15th in slugging and 12th in team ERA. Despite all the youth and low payroll, this team should be better. They are sixth in the NL in runs scored and have a pair of terrific starters in Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad. That's a nice 1-2 punch to build a rotation around.

The main problem is that two talented young arms they traded for, Anibel Sanchez and Andrew Miller, have been awful. That makes it tough to get a streak going and puts too much workload on the middle relief, as Sanchez and Miller average 5 (poor) innings per start. There's a lot to be said for workhorse starters who eat innings and rest bullpens.

Colorado Rockies
Their miracle run to the World Series in 2007 indeed appears to be a fluke. That season the Rockies were No. 1 in fewest errors allowed and that great defense had a domino effect on the pitching staff. They are middle of the pack in fielding now and the pitching is 14th in team ERA and 15th in saves. Throw in an offense with a .327 on-base percentage, and it's a recipe for failure.

Like Florida, the Rockies just don't have enough quality arms to anchor the rotation. The most glaring problem is free passes: Starters Jorge De La Rosa, Ubaldo Jimenez and Jeff Cook all walk far too many batters. Putting men on base in a park like Coors Field will be disastrous, which explains a losing record for the Rockies both home and away.

Neither New York's Mike Pelfrey nor Boston's Josh Beckett have foold batters this season, and that will lead to an easy Over in Fenway tonight between the Mets and Red Sox.

Getting out of Dodger Sstadium where they were swept earlier this week should help the Mets offense, especially here in hitter-friendly Fenway.

This New York offense is tops in the NL in batting average (.287), second in OBP (.368) and sixth in runs per game (4.88). The Mets gain a DH here, too.

Neither starter tonight has outstanding numbers. New York's Mike Pelfrey has a 4.61 ERA in the NL and walks a few too many batters (17 in 41 innings), something patient Boston hitters will take advantage of to clog the bases.

Meanwhile Red Sox righty Josh Beckett hasn't been an ace, with a 5.85 ERA and walking 23 in 47 innings. Look for an offensive show in Fenway; play the Mets/Red Sox over the total.

Free Pick: Mets-Red Sox Over 10 (-105)

The Cardinals have run into a tough stretch, and the return of Chris Carpenter to the mound in St. Louis won't be enough to stop the losing against the Chicago Cubs.

It's tough to back the St. Louis Cardinals with all their injuries, losing five of their last six to fall out of first place in the NL Central.

Chicago has a winning road record and is hot, not losing a game last week. Starter Ryan Dempster has been solid, at 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA his last three starts.  In three starts this month, the righthander has struck out 21 in 20.1 innings of work.

There's an old wagering adage about going against a pitcher making his first start after being on the shelf a while, and that's the case here with St. Louis starter Chris Carpenter.   After making just five appearances in 2007 and 2008 combined due to arm trouble, Carpenter had to come out of his second start earlier this season with an oblique injury.

Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley have all fared well against the Cardinals righthander over their careers, combining for a .355 average in 76 combined at bats.  Among the 12 hits (28 AB) that Soriano has off Carpenter, two have gone for home runs.

Play Chicago tonight on the road at Busch Stadium when these two old NL rivals meet for Game 2 of their series.

Free Pick: Cubs +115

The Lakers still have a shot to get back to the NBA Finals after taking Game 7 from the Rockets on Sunday.  For the Celtics, no such luck after the Magic flattened the champs in Boston.

We're down to the Final Four in the NBA Playoffs, and what an exciting three-year postseason run it has been. In 2006 we saw more games decided by one point in NBA playoff history. Two years ago we saw the biggest upset in a 7-game series, as the No. 8 seed Warriors shocked the 67-win and No. 1 seeded Mavericks in six games. Last season old rivals Boston and LA hooked up in another NBA Finals.

This has been a fascinating postseason, as well, one that probably will be remembered as, "The Year of the Bounce Back." We've seen a lot of teams either out of gas or packing it in one game, only to bounce back the next game with a completely different performance.

The Celtics looked out of gas after beating Chicago in Game 7, then fell flat in Game 1 (at home) in a loss to Orlando. The next game they destroyed Orlando, 112-94. After getting flattened in Game 3, they bounced back and stole Game 4 at Orlando has a dog on a last second shot.

Last week the Lakers failed to show up in an embarrassing loss at Houston in Game 4, a 99-87 loss as a favorite. The next game they bounced back big-time with a 40-point win! That happened in the first round, after their only loss at Utah, the Lakers beat the Jazz by double digits the next game.

There is often a "clash of styles" in the postseason, with run-and-gun, uptempo teams against defensive-oriented ones. The Western Conference Finals features two teams that have to figure out what style they want to play. Denver has been an uptempo team most of the season. In the playoffs against New Orleans they stepped up their defensive intensity, only to revert to a run-and-gun style in beating Dallas in five games.

Remember they faced each other a year ago, and it was one Denver would rather forget, getting swept. The 2008 Lakers/Nuggets series was expected to be uptempo because of the Nuggets breakneck pace behind Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony. Yet, there was a lot more defense (by the Lakers) than fans and oddsmakers might have anticipated as the last three games went under the total. The Nuggets averaged 110 points per game during the regular season, then the Lakers held them to an average of 101 in their four-game sweep. Denver had the same problem the previous season, as the Spurs turned on their defensive jets and held the Nuggets to 88, 91, 89 and 78 points the last four games, all wins by San Antonio.

That's nothing new. Three years ago the Warriors/Mavericks series was expected to be uptempo under Don Nelson's breakneck style. Yet, four of the six games went under the total. Game 2 jumped over the total by only one point, while Games 1, 3, 4 and 6 went under the total by 32, 11, 8 and 12 points.

You often see more defense this time of the season.  Remember that defense is the common ingredient in all sports when it comes to advancing in the postseason and winning championships. The last five years are loaded with examples. In 2004, the flashy, high profile Lakers opened as a 5-to-1 favorite over the blue-collar Pistons. The early money came in on LA as the public was enamored with the flashy team and the Pistons were eventually +700 to win the title. It was the blue-collar team, with its unselfish play and slam-dunk defense, that won the title with ease, as the Pistons whipped the Lakers in five games.

Four years ago, two unselfish blue-collar teams met for the title as the Spurs topped the Pistons in seven games. In 2006, Pat Riley's Heat used defense and Dwyane Wade to come back from 2-0 in the NBA Finals, in 2007 the Spurs rode their magnificent defense to another title, their fourth since 1999. Last season it was the better defensive team, Boston, that topped the finesse Lakers in the Finals.

Naturally, coaches know the value of defense this time of year and you often find the better defensive teams advancing and facing each other. When the Pistons won the title five years ago they were 14-8-1 under the total in the postseason. When the Spurs won the title in 2005, six of their first eight playoff games sailed under the total. The 2006 champion Miami Heat went 10-2 under the total their final 12 playoff games and in 2007 the under went 3-1 in the dull Spurs/Cavs Finals.

This is not uncommon when two proud defensive teams are trying to flex their muscles in a showcase of superiority. As we enter the final stretch of this NBA season, keep in mind that the last five years the Under is 60-41-1 combined in the Eastern/Western Conference Finals and the NBA Finals. Defense doesn’t disappear this time of year, it often gets more intense.

New York's Joba Chamberlain is in a stronger groove right now than Boston's Josh Beckett.  Back the Yankees at home on Tuesday vs. the Red Sox.

Boston is not a great road team, not last season and that's been the case in 2009. They just went to struggling Tampa Bay and lost three of four games and now it's on to homer-happy New York.

Yankees starter Joba Chamberlain keeps improving, with a 3.71 ERA his last three starts.  New York is 2-1 in those three games that Chamberlain has started.

Boston starter Josh Beckett struggled down the stretch last season and in the playoffs as his velocity dropped. Rumors were that he was battling an injury. Well, now he is off to a poor start in 2009 with a 6.00 ERA and having control trouble (13 walks in 24 innings).

You can't walk anyone in this small park. While Beckett has the reputation of being a New York killer because of the 2003 World Series, note that he has a 5.90 ERA against them in a Red Sox uniform. Play the Yankees.

Free Pick: Yankees -125

Two winless pitchers meet at San Diego's Petco Park on Monday, with Kevin Correia getting the nod for the Padres against the Colorado Rockies.

There's a logjam in the NL West after first place Los Angeles with the Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres and Rockies all two games within each other.

Right now the Rockies occupy last place. Colorado has received balanced power from throughout the lineup as the club has slugged 41 HR so far this season. The pitching staff has been fair with a staff ERA of 5.21 and 1.553 WHIP.

Jorge de la Rosa is still looking for his first win after four starts, though he has pitched well with a 3.57 era and 1.41 WHIP. The problem here might be a blister that de la Rosa has developed on his middle finger of his throwing hand. While de la Rosa isn't expected to miss today's start, blisters can cause control problems.

The Padres are coming off a rough outing in LA, but seeing as though the Dodgers are perfect at home this season, this isn't a knock against them. The Padres return home tonight where they are 6-4 on the season. Adrian Gonzalez leads San Diego with a .318 BA, nine HR and 20 RBI. The pitching staff has been decent with a 4.66 ERA and WHIP under 1.50.

Kevin Correia looks for his first win also here tonight after four starts. Correia is 0-2 with a 4.71 ERA and has had some control problems with 14 BB versus just 17 K. Have to believe that neither of these clubs will do much this season with suspect batting and average pitching. But with a blister on his hand, we can't count on de la Rosa here. Take the Padres at home here tonight.

Free Pick: Padres +108

While the Celtics and Bulls have been treating fans to close, thrilling contests in their series, blowouts in the NBA playoffs aren't as rare as you might think.  Just ask the Hornets if you don't believe us.

The NBA playoffs are in full swing, which means overall the better teams are battling each other. This is different from the regular season when many nights great teams are playing bad teams and bad teams are playing worse teams! Astute sports bettors should pay very careful attention to blowouts.

Think back one year ago in the playoffs. The eventual champion Celtics had a 2-0 series lead on the Hawks and were a favorite in Game 3 at Atlanta. Boston had won the first two games with ease, 104-81 and 96-77. Instead, the Hawks not only covered Game 3, but won, 102-93.

Two years ago the Spurs had a 2-0 series lead on the Jazz and were a favorite in Game 3, but the Jazz flattened the Spurs in an upset, 109-93. A tide turning win? Or just a good team having a bad day? San Antonio won and covered by double digits the next two games to close out the series, the final game a 25-point rout.

Overall, blowouts are less expected this time of the year. Oddsmakers are anticipating that the majority of teams want to be here and will play all out for 48 minutes keeping things relatively close. The Celtics/Bulls first round series was a good example, with 3 of the 5 games going into overtime and four decided by 3 points or less.

Playoff teams have some talent or star players, which also makes closer, more competitive games likely, especially as the playoffs move along. Still, one-sided games can happen for a variety of reasons. Three years ago the defending champion Spurs positively trashed the Kings in Game 1, 122-88. The stats on the game were frightening, with San Antonio shooting 57% and holding the Kings to 39%, while winning the battle of the boards 51-32.

The blowout, combined with the suspension of Ron Artest, helped push the betting line from 8 to 12 for the next game. However, a funny thing happened in Game 2: the Kings showed up. They showed up with a vengeance, too, taking the Spurs to overtime before a wild 128-119 loss, though the angry dog still covered. Public perception can be such that many were thinking the Spurs were going to destroy the Kings even worse in Game 2.   However, the veteran Kings were embarrassed and angry. A very different team showed up for Game 2, one that was motivated by the blowout loss.

The point is, don't easily dismiss teams that get routed. If they have talent, are well coached, or have strong leadership, they can bounce back and look like a very different team the next game. Another factor to consider is defense. Many teams that make the postseason know how to play defense and in a blowout loss, perhaps a team simply had a bad defensive game. Or, the opponent was doing something that they couldn't adjust to. Though after watching game films, adjustments are made, which is why they can look like a very different team.

That happened in the Wizards/Cavaliers series last year. Cleveland won Game 2, 116-86, then Washington came home and took a must-win game by 36 points, 108-72. Had the tide turned? No, Cleveland won Game 4 as a road dog, 100-97. Adjustments and motivation can spur a team in a bounce-back role, as well as the fact that they simply had a bad game. Even handicappers have to learn not to overanalyze certain situations. The important point is not too read too much into a single, one-sided game.

Even regular season games can have an effect. On opening night two seasons ago, the defending champion Heat were hosting the Bulls and were demolished 108-66 by Chicago on championship banner and ring night. Don't think the Heat forgot, because when the rematch took place in Miami, Chicago was thrashed, 103-70. One Miami player said after the payback, "We knew we owed this team," while the coach added, "Our guys took it to heart."

The playoffs only increase competitive fire and passion with teams facing each other over and over again, making adjustments and revenge spots even more acute. You may recall the NBA Finals three years ago, when two blowouts were followed by close nail-biters, with the dog covering. Dallas won Game 2, 99-85, but the next game Miami won by a basket. In Game 4, the Heat rolled by 24 points, only to see Game 5 go into overtime and decided by one point.

This is nothing new. Four years ago in the Finals, the Pistons destroyed the Spurs 102-71 in Game 4. The next game, the Spurs were a +3.5 dog, yet got their revenge in a 96-95 straight up win. When the playoffs opened four years ago, the Celtics danced all over the Pacers in a 102-82 Game 1 rout. Boston players made foolish comments after the game about how they were already thinking about advancing to the next round!

In Game 2, a very different Indiana team showed up in an 82-79 win as a road underdog.  They eventually won the series, too. Every dog can have his day in the NBA playoffs, so be careful: one-sided blowouts can be very different the next encounter.

Yao Ming and the Rockets do not want to have to return to Portland for a Game 7.  Look for the Rockets to end this series tonight at the Toyota Center vs. the Trail Blazers.

Houston has been in command of this series since spanking the Trail Blazers on the road in Game 1.

In the last two games here they held Portland to 83 and 88 points, allowing 42% and 45% shooting. They played a physical style that knocked the young Blazers off their game. They ran out of gas in Game 5, though they turned an 11-point deficit midway through the third quarter into a four-point lead early in the fourth.

Now coming home they know this is the game to win, as Houston doesn't want to head out on the road for Game 7. Houston is 35-8 at home, while Portland is 20-23 on the road. Look for a monster, physical effort by the home team...and the series to be over. Play the Rockets.

Free Pick: Rockets -5 (-110)

Chris Young is off to a solid start for San Diego who are 3-1 in his mound assignments so far.  Play the Padres on Monday when the travel to face the Rockies.

Chris Young is off to a really good start for the surprising Padres with San Diego in second place in the NL West behind the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Young is 2-0 in four starts this season with a 3.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Young has struck out 17 while walking just eight on the year. The Padres' bats haven't been anything to brag about for a few seasons now, especially in the pitcher's park they play in. First baseman Adrian Gonzalez is having a fine start with a .306 ERA, six home runs and 13 RBI's.

Heath Bell has taken over as the closer in the pen and has seven saves this year while allowing no earned runs and just three hits in eight appearances.

Meanwhile the Rockies are stuck in last place in the division. It's not difficult to see why when you see their .239 team BA. They have hit 21 HRs in 16 games, but RF Brad Hawpe is hitting above .300 and has double-digit RBI's among the starters. Combine a team pitching ERA of 5.72 to the pathetic hitting and it's no wonder this club has won just five games this season.

Don't look for the Rockies to win today either against the Padres No. 2 starter.

Free Pick: Padres +110

The 2009 MLB season begins its fourth week with several teams seemingly playing over their collective heads and several disappointments bringing up the rear in their respective divisions.

More than any other sport, baseball is a game of patience. It's not how you start, but where you finish, and with a 162-game regular season there is a lot of baseball left.

Did your team get off to a bad start? Well don't panic. There is plenty of time to make adjustments and turn things around. Did your team get off to a hot start? Well don't start making World Series reservations just yet.

One year ago this week the eventual AL champion Tampa Bay Rays were 10-11, second to last in the AL East, looking up at three teams (Boston, NY, Baltimore) they would soon overtake. The eventual World Series champion Philies were 11-11, looking up at the Marlins and Mets in the NL East. The best record in baseball at the end of April was (sorry, Cub fans), the Cubbies. They did make the playoffs, but didn't come close to sniffing a rare World Series berth.

Two years ago the eventual NL Champion Rockies were 10-16, last place in the NL West at the end of April, and 45-46 at the All Star break. Remember that three years ago the eventual champion Cardinals didn't light the world on fire during a 17-12 start. Just four years ago the Houston Astros started 8-13 and eventually stood at 15-30! They ended up winning the 2005 NL pennant. In 2003, the Florida Marlins started 19-29 and ended up winning the World Series. In 2002, the Angels started 6-14 and wound up winning their first World Series.

So don't panic if your team is stumbling, and don't start thinking about printing playoff tickets if your team started 11-5, like the 2009 Cardinals, Blue Jays and Marlins. A year ago the low budget Marlins were sitting in first place, like they are now. The biggest flops have been the Rays, Indians and Angels, though LA has been devastated by injuries and tragedy. Remember that two years ago the Phillies started 1-7 and ended up as NL East champs.

Oakland GM Billy Beane once said you spend the first third of the season seeing what you have and evaluating your team. The middle third trying to acquire pieces to fill weak spots, and the final third sitting back and watching the team make a run at the postseason – or not. We have just started the first third of the season and there's a long way to go. General Managers are in the process of evaluating what they have.

In the same way GMs need patience when analyzing baseball, so do handicappers. The Red Sox quietly began to turn things around after that dreadful start, winning seven in a row. Tim Wakefield started the roll with a much needed complete game win at Oakland, one that saved the bullpen, which was in tatters after an extra inning game the night before. Last week Wakefield became the oldest pitcher (at 42 years, 263 days) to throw two consecutive complete games since Charlie Hough (44 years, 169 days) in 1992.

The Marlins have been the big surprise in the NL, third in runs scored, third in stolen bases and third in team ERA. However, consistency over the long haul is the key. Note that the young Marlins are ranked 14th in the NL in quality starts and just called up Burke Badenhop from Triple-A New Orleans to replace starter Andrew Miller, who is on the 15-day disabled list. Pitching depth and quality starts go a long way to stabilizing a staff and preventing long slides.

History is the best teacher. Look back just four years ago for some comparisons. In April of 2005, the Orioles and Blue Jays were atop the American League East with the Red Sox and Yankees looking up at them. In the National League, the Dodgers had a blistering 11-2 start while no other team in the NL West had a winning record. When the season ended, a very different picture emerged. LA was 71-91 in fourth place, a bevy of injuries and a lack of hitting derailed their once promising season. Meanwhile, in April in the NL Central the eventual NL champion Astros were looking up at the Cubs, Reds and Cardinals.

Surprises will emerge over a long season and offer smart bettors good value for their wagering dollar, even with individual players. After going 17-8 and 16-8 from 2004-05, Cardinals lefty Mark Mulder was expected to have a strong 2006 season. He was installed as a favorite often on such a good team, yet struggled badly with a 6-7 record and a 7.14 ERA. Arm trouble eventually put him on the shelf. Pitchers are more susceptible to injuries than any other professional athletes and remember that betting numbers are made based on current and past performance. It can take a while before oddsmakers catch on to a struggling or injured pitcher.

Other times, kid pitchers can come up from the minors and dazzle, such as we saw a year ago with Edinson Volquez (Reds) and Tim Lincecum (Giants). Of course, two years ago Fausto Carmona of the Indians dazzled, but has struggled (and often overvalued) since. Bettors are keeping a close eye on Cleveland lefty Cliff Lee, who won the Cy Young in 2008 but has been up and down so far.

Sustaining a surprise start requires talent, depth, lineup balance and good health. A crop of talented young players from the farm system can be a huge plus. In 2003, the Florida Marlins road a slew of hot young arms, Dontrelle Willis, Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Carl Pavano, to a World Series title, while the Rays did something similar last summer. Remember in 2003 the Royals started 17-4, the Mariners started 40-18 and the Diamondbacks were 52-42 at the All Star break. None made the playoffs.

Those examples give hope to those teams that are off to struggling starts, and should provide caution to teams that are in first place. After all, it's only April!

While high powered flashy offenses provide more entertainment and excitement, in the end an old sports adage usually rings true; defense wins championships.
Look at all the recent Super Bowl winners. You might not realize this, but Colts QB Peyton Manning didn't have a stellar postseason three years ago with 3 TDs and 7 INTs. The real story for the Colts' run to the title was their improved defense, especially against the run, that allowed 14 ppg to opposing offenses in the postseason.

Little brother Eli followed up with a title the next year, but it was clearly the Giants' defense that led the way, shutting down the top-ranked Patriots' offense.

Who won the Super Bowl in January? The Steelers, with the No. 1 ranked defense. Coincidence? Hardly. Back in 2003, the No. 1 defense of Tampa Bay smacked the No. 1 offense of the Raiders in the Super Bowl. Last year in the NBA Finals, who won the title, the flashy Laker offense, or the blue-collar, physical Celtic defense? The Spurs have won four NBA titles since 1999 with defense the backbone of their run.

Michael Jordan may have been best known for his offense, but it was the team's defense from 1996-98 that netted the Chicago Bulls three straight titles. The same was true for the Lakers during their recent run. Let's look at Jordan's Bulls. When Jordan won his last championship in 1998, the Bulls were a great defensive team and notice that Chicago went 13-6-1 in games "under" the total during the 1998 playoffs. In 2003, the Spurs went 15-8-1 "under" the total on their way to winning the title.

The 2004 champion Pistons went 14-8-1 Under the total. Former Pistons' coach Larry Brown was instrumental in teaching and motivating the Pistons defensively. They were not always pretty offensively, losing 82-64 and 94-79 in Games 3 and 4 against the Nets one season, and they even lost 83-68 to the Pacers in a playoff game -- at home! They scored just 78 points in Game 1 against the Nets, but still won by 22 points, 78-56! Detroit went on to win the 2004 NBA title, stunning the Lakers as a 7-to-1 series dog. Winning ugly is secondary to winning, of course.

What led the Miami Heat to the NBA title in 2006? Dwyane Wade and defense! The Heat went 10-2 Under the total their final 12 playoff games, which concluded with their four-game winning streak over Dallas in the Finals. In the Eastern Conference championship series win over Detroit, all six games went under the total.  In 2004, there were 37 unders and 27 overs in the NBA playoffs and in 2006 the under was 14-4 from the Conference Finals to the NBA Finals.

Two years ago in the Finals, the Spurs swept Cleveland by holding the Cavaliers to 76, 92, 72 and 82 points. Three of the four games went under the total. The Cavaliers averaged 80 ppg in the Finals, 16 points below their regular season average.

One thing that happens is that strong defensive teams play as hard as they can defensively during the regular season a lot of the time, but not always. Sometimes games are blowouts and teams will coast on defense or have fun trying to score in the fourth quarter, rather than work hard playing defense (which isn't noticed as much by the fans as is a flashy offensive play). This is human nature, as it's an 82-game regular season, so it's difficult and tiring to play all out on defense for six months.

Once the playoffs roll around, however, it's a different story, as there are fewer one-sided games and opportunities to coast. Since the postseason is so short and every game means something, it's more likely teams will go all out on defense. In fact, defense has a tendency to get better as the playoffs go along because the games mean more the closer you approach the Finals. The last five seasons, the Under is 57-44 combined in the Eastern/Western Conference Finals and the NBA Finals.

These NBA playoffs are going to be interesting for several reasons. There could be interesting contrast of styles in the West with run-and-gun fast break teams (Jazz, Nuggets, Lakers, Mavericks) squaring off against monster-defensive teams like the Rockets and Spurs. Remember that the previous four seasons the offensive-minded Suns were knocked out by the Spurs and Mavericks. Last year San Antonio stunned them in five games and this year they didn't even make the playoffs. Chalk up another triumph of defense over offense -- a trend the Cavaliers hope continues (they rank No. 1 in points allowed).

Thursday's series finale between the Dodgers and Astros should turn into a real pitchers duel.  Play Los Angeles and Houston under the total at Minute Maid Park.

A pair of hot hurlers are on the hill at Houston's Minute Maid Park on Thursday night when the Astros host the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Houston lefty Wandy Rodriguez has a 2.96 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 29 starts at home, plus he's off to a sizzling start in 2009: 1.89 ERA with 18 Ks in 19 innings. Rodriguez has improved his ERA, WHIP, strikeout-to-walk ratio and OPS allowed in each of the past two seasons – the latter two categories substantially so.

Houston's offense, though, is 10th in the NL in batting and 15th in runs scored. They face a hot righty in Chad Billingsley (3-0, 2.84 ERA). He has fanned 21 in just 19 innings. Billingsley has also pitched very well in this park in his short career with an ERA below 2.00 and wins in both starts he's made in Houston.

Look for a lot of strikeouts and few runs; play the Dodgers and Astros under the total.

Free Pick: Dodgers-Astros Under 8½ (-110)

Mets hitters are licking their chops at the prospect of facing St. Louis' Todd Wellemeyer.  Cash New York as road dogs on Tuesday when they travel to St. Louis.

The New York Mets are getting their act in gear, winning two out of three over the Brewers last weekend.

Tonight's starter for New York, lefthander Oliver Perez is a dog here.  After a terrible performance in his first start at Cincinnati he bounced back with an impressive win in his start last Wednesday (Apr 15), a 7-2 win for New York at home vs. the Padres.

After giving up eight runs and five walks in 4.1 innings against the Reds, Perez held the Padres to one run and three hits. The lefty walked two and struck out four.

The Mets face St. Louis starter Todd Wellemeyer who has allowed 19 hits in 12 innings, plus has a 6.89 ERA in 20 innings against the Mets. An excellent spot for the road dog; play New York.

Free Pick: Mets (-103)

The Dodgers are potent offensively but rather shaky defensively, especially in the outfield. So it comes as no surprise that the LA Over is on a 6-2 run. With the wild Jimenez going for Colorado, look for another Over today.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a strong offense but a suspect pitching staff.

Colorado Rockies starter Ubaldo Jimenez has a tendency to allow a lot of free passes, which is a killer against strong offensive teams, walking nine in 10 innings this season. Manny Ramirez belted his first two home runs of the season at Dodger Stadium, but also made a couple of defensive gaffes that were nearly as memorable, among them a mistimed dive in left field that resulted in a two-run triple in a 9-5 win. LA is on a 6-2 run Over the total and is forced to go with shaky James McDonald and his 13.50 ERA.

Look for another offensive show in Dodger stadium, so play the Rockies/Dodgers Over the total.

Free Pick: Rockies, Dodgers Over 9 (-115)

WIth a renewed emphasis on the defensive end of the court, the Lakers have come away winners in six of their last seven, and will pick up win #65 tonight against the Jazz.

The Los Angeles Lakers have been playing defense the last month, and currently on a 12-4 run under the total. That was evident again in a 92-75 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies at Staples Center on Sunday.

Andruw Bynum had a team-high 18 points, Kobe Bryant had 16 points and the Lakers improved to 64-17 with one regular season game left Tuesday against Utah.

They take on a team that hasn't played defense all year. Utah is also in a tough situational spot, playing their fourth game infive5 nights, plus the second of a back-to-back road spot.

The last time these two met was Feb 11 at the EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City.  With the number closing on the Lakers as 1-point favorites, Utah pulled off a 113-109 upset behins Deron Williams' 31 points and 11 assists, and tonight will be payback time for LA. Play the rested Lakers.

Free Pick: Lakers (-110)

The Los Angeles Lakers are getting healthy at just the right time.  Is there any team in the West that can step up and kick Kobe Bryant and LA out of the playoffs early?

It's been a long haul, this 82-game NBA regular season, but it's now time for the playoffs. This week it's the best of the West, the conference that has won seven of the last 10 NBA titles.

Trail Blazers
Where did these kids come from? Portland has done a great job stockpiling talent and it has come to fruition this season. 24-year-old Brandon Roy is a former Rookie of the Year, leading with 23 points per game. The frontcourt is loaded with 6-11, 23-year-old LaMarcus Aldridge (18 ppg, 7.5 rpg), 24-year-old Travis Outlaw and 21-year-old 7-footer Greg Oden.

With all that young star power, it's easy to overlook the team's leading rebounder, 29-year-old 7-foot-1 Joel Przybilla. As with many young teams, they are dominant at home, but have a losing road mark. They may be the team no one wants to face in the playoffs, but that weak road record will probably hurt at some points.

Hornets
Another young team flexing its muscles. At age 23, Chris Paul is the most electrifying guard in the league, with 22.6 points and 11 assists per game. He runs fits around opposing defenses with his quickness and playmaking ability. David West (20 ppg, 8.5 rpg) and Tyson Chandler (8 ppg, 8.9 rpg) are rebounding machines in the low post.

Veteran Peja Stojakovic (13.8 ppg) has stepped into a good situation and adds the outside game. They hope the addition of sixth-man James Posey will pay some postseason dividends, as he did last season with the champion Celtics and the 2006 champion Heat. After being a dominant road team last season, New Orleans has slipped this year, barely over .500. One plus is defense, allowing 94 ppg – fourth best in the NBA.

Lakers
The beasts of the West for the second straight season. This is a huge frontcourt with 7-foot Paul Gasol (19 ppg, 9.5 ppg), 6-10 Lamar Odom (11 ppg, 8.3 rpg) and 7-foot center Andruw Bynum (14 ppg, 8.2 rpg), who is just returning from a knee injury – just in time for the playoffs.

Kobe Bryant (27 ppg) continues to shine as one of the top players in the game, creating mismatches and is able to score from anywhere. Coach Phil Jackson has been working the last two months on improving the defense, and notice the Lakers are on a 16-4 run under the total. Keep that in mind come playoff time. LA is also 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS as a dog and 20-6 against the spread the last two seasons as a dog.

Rockets
Houston has a physical, hard-working bunch, led by 28-year-old. 7-foot-6 Yao Ming (19.6 ppg, 10 rpg) in the middle. Veteran Ron Artest and 6-8 Luis Scola (12.7 ppg, 8.8 rpg) are terrific role players. Houston allows 94.5 ppg, sixth best defensively in the league.

Houston traded away veteran point guard Rafer Alston to Orlando in midseason, but that was to get speedy second-year guard Aaron Brooks (11 ppg) more involved, and he's played well. They are on a 10-5 run under the total approaching the postseason, which is a good time to bring your best defense. On the other hand, the Rockets have a losing road mark.

Nuggets
Denver became so much better when they dumped Allen Iverson and added former local hero Chauncey Billups. They are hot at the right time, riding the hot shooting of Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin and J.R. Smith. The offense averages over 104 ppg, sixth best in the NBA.

But can you advance in the playoffs with a finesse, uptempo offense and little defense? The Nuggets are not a strong rebounding team and allow over 100 ppg, in the bottom half of the league. A year ago they got smoked in four-straight by the Lakers in the first round.

Spurs
San Antonio knows what it takes to play championship basketball in the postseason, having won titles in 1999, 2003, 2005 and 2007. Defense is their calling card, allowing 45% shooting by opponents and 93.5 ppg, tops in the West. This is a veteran team with defensive stalwarts Tim Duncan and Bruce Bowen.

However, they have battled injuries to sparkplug All-Star point guard Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, the latter who will miss the postseason. That's a tough blow. With Ginobili out, the Spurs signed swingman Marcus Williams, an NBA D-League first-team selection with the Austin Toros. They have not been playing their best ball of late, and last week lost at home to the Blazers by 12, blowing a 19-point second-quarter lead.

With the NBA playoffs just around the corner it's time to look at the best each conference has to offer, beginning with the East where LeBron James and the Cavaliers are the top team.

It's been a long haul, this 82-game NBA regular season, but it's winding down which means the playoffs are just around the corner. Next week we'll take a look at the best of the West, the conference that has won seven of the last ten NBA titles. This week, it's the best of the East.

Cleveland Cavaliers
The Beasts of the East! The Cavaliers have the best player in the game in 24-year-old, 6-8 LeBron James, averaging over 28 points, 7.7 rebounds and 7.3 assists. They were in the NBA Finals just two years ago, but that team was a one-man show. This time LeBron has an excellent supporting cast, with newcomers Mo Williams (18 ppg) and recently acquired Joe Smith.

Cavaliers coach Mike Brown has been going easy on the team in practice. James and center Zydrunas Ilgauskas rarely take part in contact practices this late in the season. Brown figures he's held only two contact practices the past month. As they ripped off 13 wins in a row, no one can argue with the strategy.

For all the offensive firepower, note that Cleveland allows 90 points per game and 42% shooting by opponents – both tops in the NBA. They are the team to beat in the East, with an incredible 36-1 start at home. They started an NBA-best 21-2 since the All-Star break and 25-12 on the road, third best in the NBA.

Orlando Magic
While Cleveland has been dominant at home, Orlando has been the best road team in the East. Orlando is a young up and coming group looking to flex its muscles this postseason. They have a young superstar at center in Dwight Howard, averaging 21 points and 14 rebounds. This impressive frontcourt sports power and finesse with Howard, 6-10 Rashard Lewis and 6-10 Hedo Turkoglu.

They can play defense, as well, allowing 43.3% shooting, third best in the NBA. The backcourt has been the lone weakness the last two years. They suffered a tough blow losing all-star point guard Jameer Nelson in February, but have gone 19-7 without him, picking up veteran Rafer Alston from Houston. They are 7-6 against current playoff-bound teams without Nelson and 12-1 against non-playoff-bound clubs.

Boston Celtics
Let's not overlook the defending champs! While the Cavs and Magic are stocked with youth, the Celtics have the trio of veterans – and the NBA title ring from last June. Paul Pierce (20 ppg) is having another great season, along with 33-year-old Ray Allen (18.5 ppg). They can still bring the defense, allowing 92.5 ppg, second best in the NBA, plus have some good role playing kids.

However, the real story is the health of Kevin Garnett who sustained a right knee strain Feb. 19 and is not expected to return before an April 12 visit to Cleveland. He should be back for the playoffs, but a basketball player needs his knees at 100%. With Garnett on the shelf, Boston has been overvalued, on a 6-12 ATS run.

Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta was the hot pick early in the season after a strong start. They are the prototypical team that stockpiles young, athletic players through the draft then becomes the team no one wants to play, with talents Joe Johnson (21.4 ppg), Josh Smith and Al Horford. They have been hot the last month, on a 9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS run.

However, they are not a dominant defensive team, 10th in points allowed, plus have the common thread young teams have: great at home, lousy on the road. They started 29-9 at home, 14-23 away. The Hawks have gone more than a month without a quality road win, not doing much after a Feb. 11 win in Detroit. They gave the Celtics a seven-game series last year, but went 0-4 SU/ATS on the road.

Miami Heat
On the one hand, who wouldn't want an offensive punch of Dwyane Wade (29.8 ppg), Jermaine O'Neal (13.6 ppg) and Michael Beasley? Throw in a hard working role player up front like Udonis Haslem (8.2 rpg), and the Heat has plenty of punch on paper to be a postseason force.

On the other hand, when are they going to show up? Miami simply hasn't caught fire since acquiring O'Neal. Last week they lost a close showdown at home to Orlando, then went out to Dallas and played well, but lost again by a basket. They have lost 12 of the last 15 games on the road. Wade and power forward Haslem are the only remaining rotation players from the 2006 title team. This is a group that looks better on paper than on the court.

The Rockets have gone Under in nine of their last 13 games, thanks to a very good defense that just held the Lakers to 39 percent shooting on Friday. With the Blazers also suffocating their opponents, points should be scarce.

The Houston Rockets and the Portland Trail Blazers both know how to play tough defense.

Houston is on a 9-4 run Under the total, and just held the explosive LA Lakers offense to 93 points in a 93-81 defeat. They held LA to 39 percent shooting, and now come home where they play their best defense.

Portland is off another dominant game, adding to their string of blowouts, routing the Oklahoma City Thunder 107-72 on Friday night. They've held two of the last three opponents to 66 and 72 points!

Look for a defensive battle in Texas, play the Blazers/Rockets Under the total.

Free Pick: Blazers, Rockets Under 185½ (-110)

Next stop: Detroit.  The 2009 Final Four will commence this Saturday at Ford Field in Motown.  Can the Spartans and Wildcats kick the Huskies and Tar Heels to the curb?

It is a great weekend for sports fans with the Final Four and the culmination of the college basketball season next Monday in Detroit for the national championship. It is clear that it is not the teams the start the season hot, but the ones that get hot when it really matters – March and April!

Many things happen over the course of a long season. Some teams play great basketball in December and January, only to break down from injuries or run out of steam down the stretch. Cincinnati is a good example, winning 10 of 12 games to start the season. Overrated (and overvalued), the Bearcats finished the season on a 1-6 SU/ATS run. Two years ago Clemson started 17-0, then failed to even make the Big Dance after a 4-10 SU, 5-9 ATS run.

Kansas may have won the title last year, but four years ago it was a very different story: The Jayhawks started 20-1, only to go 3-6 straight up and 1-8 against the spread the last nine games. They never made it to the Final Four because of a 64-63 loss to Bucknell as a 13½-point favorite.

Other times an easy early season schedule, youth, bad coaching, untimely injuries, bad luck, poor team chemistry or a combination of these can cut down a potentially great team. Youth and a loss of its best players certainly fell Florida the last two years after winning back-to-back titles.

Wake Forest had a disastrous finish to what had been a fine season, bowing out early in the ACC tourney to Maryland as a 6-point favorite, then getting upset by Cleveland State as 8-point chalk in the first Big Dance contest. This is nothing new. Last year No. 2 seed Georgetown took itself out of the tournament, blowing a 46-29 lead by trying to stall against Davidson with far too much time left.

Two years ago Wisconsin was a No. 2 seed, but suffered a key late season loss in 6-11 Brian Butch, their leading rebounder and third-leading scorer. They weren't the same group, getting smacked by Ohio State in the Big 10 tourney and an upset loss to UNLV in the Big Dance.

It is very easy for sports bettors to look into trends to try and predict the future. Trends can be helpful if there are reasons to support it. For example, from a betting perspective, what stands out about the last seven Finals Fours

YEAR TEAMS . . . . . Score Line
2008 Kansas. . . . . . 84 . 158
2008 North Carolina. . 66 . . 3

2008 UCLA. . . . . . . 63 . 135
2008 Memphis . . . . . 78 . . 3

2007 Georgetown. . . . 60 . . 1
2007 Ohio St . . . . . 67 . 130

2007 UCLA. . . . . . . 66 . 131
2007 Florida . . . . . 76 . . 3

2006 George Mason. . . 58 . 132
2006 Florida . . . . . 73 . -6

2006 LSU . . . . . . . 45 . -2
2006 UCLA. . . . . . . 59 . 123

2005 Louisville. . . . 57 . 144
2005 Illiniois . . . . 72 . -3

2005 Michigan St . . . 71 . 153
2005 North Carolina. . 87 . -2

2004 Georgia Tech. . . 67 . 139
2004 Oklahoma St . . . 65 . -4

2004 UConn . . . . . . 79 . -2
2004 Duke. . . . . . . 78 . 144

2003 Marquette . . . . 61 . -4½
2003 Kansas. . . . . . 94 . 153½ 

2003 Syracuse. . . . . 95 . 153
2003 Texas . . . . . . 84 . -3

2002 Indiana . . . . . 73 . 134
2002 Oklahoma. . . . . 64 . 6½

2002 Maryland. . . . . 97 . 168
2002 Kansas. . . . . . 88 . -1½

What stands out is that it has been the Day of the Dog. The underdog is 9-4 against the number, with eight dogs winning straight up, including Ohio State last season. In addition, the games have gone 8-6 Over the total, although the Under is 4-2 the last three years. You can even make an argument that this would be the right time of the college hoops' season to take a shot with the dog on the money-line.  However, this is where one needs patience, because trends can also be a fool's paradise. The last four years the favorites are 5-3 ATS. So if you had used that dog strategy the last two years you would have gone 3-5.

If you go back to the previous three Final Fours before that survey, 1999-01, we find Duke topping Maryland 95-84, Arizona blowing out Michigan State 80-61, Michigan State beating Wisconsin 53-41, Florida topping North Carolina 71-59, UConn beating Ohio State 64-58 and Duke surviving Michigan State 68-62. What stands out is that the favorite won and covered in five of six, for a hefty 5-1 spread record.

Even looking at totals, a similar pattern emerges. The last seven years the Over has gone 8-6 in the Final Four. The three years before that the Under prevailed at a 5-1 clip. That's just 11-9 under the last ten years. All of a sudden, those who look solely at trends as the key to the sports betting kingdom are stuck at close to a .500 winning percentage ATS.

For the record, going back the last 14 years, there have been 16 Unders and 12 Overs in the Final Four, with 15 dogs covering while 13 favorites have gotten the money. Again, trends are worth examining, but there needs to be reasons behind them if you're serious about putting down hard earned money on a side. Perhaps the most significant stat that stands out is that 12 of the 15 dogs that covered ended up winning the game outright, which shows how competitive and relatively evenly matched the games become when teams get this far in the season.

The Suns may be playing their fourth game in five nights, but they are still fighting for a playoff spot and they are facing a Sacramento team that is just going through the motions right now. Look for a big Phoenix win on the road.

There is some line value with the Phoenix Suns because they are in a tough situational spot, playing their fourth game in five nights.

However, the Sacramento Kings have clearly packed it in this season, coming in off another no-show game, a 113-95 home loss to Memphis. The Kings came out with their characteristic poor first half that has plagued them all season. Turnovers early and poor defense had the Kings facing double digit deficits most of the game.

Sacramento is on a 1-7 straight up and 3-5 against the spread run, while the visitors are fighting for a playoff spot. Play the Suns.

Free Pick: Suns -5 (-110)

With just a few weeks left in the 2008-09 regular season in the NBA, finding teams and players still playing 100%, especially on the defensive end of the floor, is the key to capping.

There are three more weeks to go in the NBA regular season. This means there are professional athletes who will be going on vacation soon, while other players will be working hard, huffing and puffing 40 minutes per game, some right on through until May and even June.

Now let me ask you – Will the majority of the players on the Sonics, Clippers, Wizards, Kings and Grizzlies be working as hard the next few weeks as those teams on the NBA playoff bubble, like the Bucks, Bobcats, Suns and Bulls? Good coaches can get their players motivated, even on a losing team this time of the season.

However, the fact is good coaches are as hard to find as self-motivated athletes. This is the time of year when some disappointed teams play out the schedule and think less about preparing for their next opponent and think more about golf and early spring/summer family vacations.  This is understandable, as losing is no fun. Teams hit the 70-game mark this week, and many players on losing teams realize they have no shot at the postseason, which means the year was a failure.

Some fans and local newspapers are focused more on where their team will end up in the draft, rather than show an interest in the last few weeks of the season. Teams like the Clippers, Raptors and Warriors were hoping to have better campaigns. The Clippers were hoping for big results from Marcus Camby and Baron Davis, but injuries have devastated a potentially improved team.

"This has been the worst year of my NBA career, and the least amount of fun I've ever had," said Davis last week.

It's difficult for anyone to give 100% when they are unhappy. Since late January the Clippers have been on a 7-19 SU, 8-18 ATS run. This is nothing new. Last season at this time the Clippers were also playing lethargic basketball, on a 2-12 SU, 3-11 ATS run. Like now, the Clippers had more players resting from injuries off the court than on.

A year ago the Miami Heat had won the NBA title less than two years ago earlier and certainly looked formidable with star guard Dwyane Wade entering his prime, teamed with veteran big men Shaq and Alonzo Mourning. No one envisioned a train wreck season with the worst record in the NBA while winning 18% of their games. They were a go-against all season, starting 10-23 ATS at home and 4-22 SU, 7-18 ATS in the conference. Motivating athletes as the ship is sinking is no easy task.

Lethargic play on bad teams is first noticeable at the defensive end. Athletes that have nothing to play for are more inclined to pad their own stats on the offensive end, but expend less energy on defense. Part of it is psychological, where a player can point to the stat sheet after the season and say, "We didn't lose because of me. I did my part with 18 points per game." The other part is simply that defense requires a lot of hustle and little recognition, and unmotivated teams have less energy at practice or in game conditions to bring their 'A' game on 'D.'

That can be reflected with totals, as well. The last two weeks the Golden State Warriors went five straight games over the total, even though oddsmakers kept juicing their totals up from 207 to 244! Speaking of injuries and no defense, how about the Washington Wizards?

With Caron Butler currently battling injuries, the Wizards have been playing without four projected opening-day starters: Butler, Gilbert Arenas, Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson, who is out for the season.  They recently went on a 5-2 run over the total.

I recall last season the Milwaukee Bucks were in a similar situation, losing six in a row, part of a 5-14 SU, 9-10 ATS run, including 16-3 over the total. Contrast those struggling teams with the Utah Jazz, a club on a terrific run of late. Why? Motivation. Utah is trying to hold on in a brutally competitive Western Conference playoff race, just one game ahead of eighth-place Dallas and only three back of second-place San Antonio!

It's about goals, interest and competitive fire, and some teams lack all three. A few years ago, Cleveland seemed more interested in setting itself up to get LeBron James in the draft than playing quality basketball, starting 24-42-1 against the spread. The Cavs went 2-13-1 ATS down the stretch. One year the Hawks completely packed it in, going 6-24 SU/ATS to end the season! You don't always have to back the good teams to win and cover, as there are plenty of go-against spots and "over" teams this time of year.

With their offense starting to get healthy, along with having no defense to speak of, the Clippers have been cashing Overs lately and that should continue today at the Toronto Raptors.

The Los Angeles Clippers have gone four straight games over the total as their offense is getting healthier.

In a loss at Detroit, rookie Eric Gordon scored 22 points and Baron Davis added 19 and eight assists for the Clippers. Chris Kaman had 13 points and Marcus Camby added 12 for the Clippers.

Of course, they haven't played defense all season, which explains the high scoring games of late.

Toronto doesn't play any defense either, and the Raptors are on a 9-2 run over the total. They just gave up 112 and 102 points in back-to-back games to the defensive-oriented Bobcats.

We're likely to see plenty of offense here. Play Los Angeles and Toronto over the total.

Free Pick: Clippers-Raptors Over 209 (-110)

Milwaukee is banged up and comes in having dropped three of four at the Bradley Center.  Play the Portland Trail Blazers on Saturday when they pay the Bucks a visit.

Cleveland has only one loss at home all season, and they almost got another in their last game as the talented Trail Blazers (+10½) took them to overtime before the Cavs escaped with the 97-92 win.

"Our guys stepped up. Fought hard. In a nasty game," said Brandon Roy, who nearly matched LeBron James' triple-double with 24 points, seven rebounds and seven assists.

Now Portland faces a far easier opponent, the banged-up Milwaukee Bucks. Portland is healthier with Greg Oden back, and in a tight playoff race for seeding. Milwaukee has lost three of four games.

With the Bucks getting smoked by the Magic, Hornets and Knicks in those three recent losses, play the Blazers.

Free Pick: Trail Blazers (-110)

The opening round of the men's NCAA Basketball Tournament provides some of sports most exciting moments pitting small schools against hardwood giants.

It's that time of year again: Basketball games night and day, day and night and after a few hours of sleep, we wake up the next day and go through it all over again. NCAA Tournament play is one of the most enjoyable times of the year for sports fans and bettors, with a seemingly endless stream of action and excitement.

Big name schools often end up playing for the title. Florida of the SEC took home back-to-back national championships by beating UCLA and Ohio State in 2006 and '07. Last year it was Kansas winning another title. In 2005, Illinois, North Carolina, Louisville and Michigan State met in the Final Four, and in recent years we've seen Texas, Syracuse, Indiana, Oklahoma, Duke, Arizona and Maryland. Big names, all of them, with no surprise schools like Pacific, Winthrop, Ohio or Stony Brook ever sneaking in. Large, high profile schools have big athletic budgets and enough scholarships to attract some of the top basketball talent, which is a key to their success.

However, this doesn't mean smaller, lesser-known schools can't compete with the big boys at times, especially when you look at one 40-minute game. There are countless examples for sports bettors. Think for a moment: You don't remember seeing Duke much in the Big Dance two years ago, do you? That's because the Blue Devils got upset in the first round, losing to VCU, 79-77. That same weekend UNLV upset Georgia Tech and Wisconsin on its way to the Sweet 16.

Three years ago the big story was George Mason out of the Colonial Athletic Association. The Patriots made it to the Final Four by knocking off Michigan State, North Carolina and UConn. They were 5, 6 and 8 point dogs in those games. Four years ago in the first round alone, Wisconsin-Milwaukee upset Alabama 83-73, UConn squeaked by Central Florida 77-71 as a 19-point favorite, Bucknell stunned Kansas 64-63, and Vermont took Syracuse to overtime and won 60-57.

Did you forget all those surprises? With so many games in March, it is easy to forget the early rounds. How about tiny Holy Cross few years ago? The Crusaders had to face Dwyane Wade and Marquette in the tournament opener and as a 10-point dog, Holy Cross covered in a close 72-68 game. Holy Cross also gave mighty Kansas, with Drew Gooden, Nick Collison and Coach Roy Williams, a run for their money. At first glance, some of the games look like mismatches, but a good handicapper is skilled in the art of careful analysis and patience.

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Every year one or two little known teams make memorable runs. Butler and Cleveland State just played for the Horizon league title. Butler is no stranger to pulling surprises. A few years ago, Butler topped Mississippi State 47-46 and then upset Louisville, 79-71. Which brings up a good point for serious sports bettors: It is not wise to take big favorites on the moneyline. The payoff is poor, and successful sports wagering is as much about money management as it is picking winners. Taking a shot with a big dog who you think might be able to hang in there is much smarter than wagering $900 to win $100, for example, on a minus-900 favorite. Surprising upsets happen all the time.

Several things are happening. One is the old NFL axiom, "On any given Sunday;" one team can beat another, regardless of record or talent. Sometimes the better team simply has a bad night shooting the basketball, or the big underdog can't miss. One of the most memorable upsets came in the 1985 NCAA Finals when Villanova, a +10 dog, upset mighty Georgetown, 66-64. The Wildcats hit 22-of-28 field goals, a sizzling 78%. It would be tough to beat ANY underdog that shoots 78%!

Another reason is that some smaller schools happen to have NBA-caliber talent. Miami of Ohio made a memorable run in 1999 with future NBA talent Wally Szczerbiak. Miami went 24-8 SU/17-14 ATS that season and upset Washington in the NCAA tournament, 59-58 as a +2 dog, beat Utah 66-58 as a +8 dog before falling to Kentucky as a +10 dog. You never know: schools like Cornell, Cleveland State, Xavier, or Northern Iowa just might be showcasing future NBA talent this month.

Other times a small school has a great coach or a collection of talented kids who play tough defense and believe in themselves enough to upset traditional powers. You may recall a March tourney where the Detroit Titans upset UCLA 56-53 and Weber State beat mighty North Carolina 76-74 as a +14 dog! Teams are generally motivated to play in the NCAA tournament, but this isn't always the case with the NIT. Some teams that were hoping to get to the Big Dance are disappointed at being selected for the lower-seeded NIT or CBI and aren't always focused for their best effort.

Sometimes there are look-ahead spots, where a high-seeded team might be looking past an opponent it might not take seriously. That's what appeared to happen in the game I mentioned earlier, Kansas against Holy Cross. Kansas needed a second half push to top the Crusaders 70-59 as a 29-point favorite. It also wouldn't have been the first time a small school upset a big-name program. Don't take big favorites on the money-line and don't simply lay the points on the more famous conference or school without doing your homework, because tourney time is loaded with surprises.

The Nets and Clippers went Over the first time they met this season, and there is no reason to believe tonight will be different. With the Nets on an 11-2 Over run and the Clippers playing no defense, go Over again.

The New Jersey Nets are fine offensively, as they are on an 11-2 run over the total.

It is defense and rebounding that are the problems. The Nets played brilliantly for much of the night at Denver, building a double-digit cushion, and had an eight-point lead in the fourth period against an elite opponent, before a 109-100 loss. They haven't outrebounded an opponent since February 7, a span of 14 games and counting, after losing a 37-32 glass battle in last night's 109-100 loss to the Blazers.

The Clippers are similar, with plenty of offensive weapons, but little regard for defense. These teams met once this season, with LA allowing 112 points as the game went over the total. This will, too.

Play the Nets/Clippers over the total.

Free Pick: Nets, Clippers Over 202½ (-110)

Steve Nash and the Suns are putting up points...and also letting points be hung on them. Play the Over in Phoenix tonight when the Suns host the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Steve Nash is back, which means the Phoenix Suns are running and gunning and currently on a 3-1 run over the total.

Of course, they still don't play any defense, which has been the problem during this five-game skid. Somebody should be fired for taking a terrific team and turning it into this in just one year.

Over the last nine games, this is the seventh road game for Cleveland. They play their best defense at home, but the Cavs are a long way from home here. Look for Mo Williams and LeBron James to take the Suns' challenge to run and gun in an exciting, high scoring contest.

When these teams met last month, Cleveland scored 109 in a game that went over the total. Play Cleveland and Phoenix over the total.

Free Pick: Cavaliers-Suns Over 218½ (-110)
 
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Injuries are part of sports, and some teams deal with missing a star player much better than others.  Assessing just how teams will respond to an injury is crucial this time of year.

Injuries are a part of all sports. For serious sports bettors, it's essential to keep a close eye on basketball injuries. That's especially true this time of the year with college basketball tournaments in full swing and NBA teams fighting for division titles and postseason positioning.

Injuries also affect teams differently. This was evident with the Milwaukee Bucks who are still on the bubble for the last playoff slot in the East, but have been decimated by injuries to key players, including star guard Mike Redd who is out for the season. That has put a lot of pressure on the bench and role players to step up and contribute more. Teams can do this for a short stretch, but eventually it can wear them down. It's no surprise the Bucks recently lost six of eight games.

During that stretch the Bucks went four straight games under the total as the offense struggled. It's essential to keep track of how injuries influence a team's style, as well as straight up wins, losses and over/unders.

This is where quality depth and attention to defense can pay dividends. A year ago Houston lost star center Yao Ming after a 12-game win streak. Then they won another seven in a row (7-0 ATS)! Clearly there was far more at work than one star player. Houston was motivated, one of the top teams in the West. They played magnificent defense, allowing 43% shooting by opponents, second best in the NBA and tops in the West at the time.

The Rockets began their transformation in December when Tracy McGrady missed 11 games due to a knee injury. They won seven of the first nine. From there a new team emerged, with young Luis Scola, Carl Landry and Shane Battier contributing. They stepped in when McGrady was out, and later with Ming on the shelf.

What is happening this season? Almost the same thing. The Rockets lost McGrady for the season and traded Rafer Alston, but the supporting cast has been terrific, on a recent 7-2 SU/ATS run. When teams lose key players like this, be sure and look to see if they have something else to fall back on, like depth or defense. The Rockets continue to be a strong defensive team, allowing 44.8% shooting by opponents, fifth best in the league and second best in the West. The 94.8 points per game they allow is seventh best overall.

Other times, teams aren't as well prepared. Since there are so few players in basketball as compared to football, the loss of any one player from the starting five means a 20% change in the lineup. This can affect not only offense or defense, but team chemistry, which takes months to develop. If a coach is counting on a role player to play defense and pull down nine rebounds a game, if that player is out he has to find someone else to plug in, which, depending on the bench, isn't always easy to do.

A year ago at this time the Miami Heat decided to sit four-time All-Star Dwyane Wade for the rest of the season to rehab his left knee. They turned to a small-ball lineup with newcomer Shawn Marion, going with an uptempo attack that started 5-4-1 over the total after a 6-3 Under run.

The defending champion Boston Celtics are without star Kevin Garnett for three weeks. Not surprisingly, they haven't been as dominant, particularly on defense, last week allowing the Pistons and Nets to score 105 and 111 in back to back games. That's far off their seasonal average allowing 92.6 ppg, second best in the league. They started 4-2 SU/2-4 ATS without Garnett and are now 16-4 the last two seasons without the Big Ticket.

From a handicapping perspective, it's essential to examine each team's strengths and weaknesses and gauge how much they may miss, if at all, a key player. The Clippers, for instance, have been ravaged by injuries the last three seasons and have fallen apart each time. Two years ago, point guard Shaun Livingston blew his knee out while veteran Sam Cassell was in and out of the lineup battling injuries.

Instead of a talented backcourt offering depth and flexibility, the Clippers were forced to start Cuttino Mobley and newcomer Jason Hart. The offense sputtered and the Clippers went on an 11-3-1 run under the total. Last season the backcourt continued to have the same problems, while the frontcourt was decimated with the loss of Elton Brand. The Clippers were an under the total machine (37-24). This season it's been even worse, with seemingly everybody hurting. Even oddsmakers haven't been able to keep up, with the Clippers on a recent 2-7 SU/ATS run.

It's essential to study injury logs and keep track of who's playing and who's hurting when you analyze match-ups. Some teams are deep and play good defense, which can help them survive injuries, while others can fall apart, both straight up and against the number.

It's been a crazy season, and a down season, on Big Ten basketball courts, and it could get even wilder as the regular season winds down and moves into postseason tournaments.

Tournament play runs wild this week! It's the start of a wild few weeks with conference tournament play helping to whittle the field. Out in the Big Ten, Ohio State made the title game two years with Greg Oden while Michigan State won it all in 2000.

Here's a look at some of the top teams of the Big Ten looking to make a similar run.

Michigan State
The Spartans have exceptional balance, leading the Big Ten in scoring and third in scoring defense. They've outscored conference opponents by +8.5 points per game, far and away ahead of everyone else. The backcourt is run by sophomore guard Kalin Lucas (14 ppg), the leading scorer.

Up front is a pair of outstanding board bangers in 6-7 junior Raymar Morgan and 6-10 senior Goran Suton. Tom Izzo has another strong defensive team allowing 41% shooting. They are on a 10-5 run under the total. They have wins over Texas and Oklahoma State, but bad losses to Maryland (80-62) and North Carolina (98-63). Michigan State is a very good road team, though just 2-2 SU/ATS as a dog.

Purdue
It was late last season that a young Boilermakers squad caught fire, going on a 14-1 SU, 12-3 ATS run under coach Matt Painter. They've carried that over to this season, on a recent 10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS run. The backcourt has sophomore guard E'Twaun Moore (14 ppg) and junior 6-4 Keaton Grant, while up front they have sophomores 6-8 Robbie Hummel (11.8 ppg, 7 rpg) and 6-10 JaJuan Johnson (13.6 ppg).

Beginning with a 30-point effort Feb. 3 at Ohio State, Johnson is averaging 17.5 points. Purdue is a powerful defensive team, allowing 40% shooting and 59.8 ppg. They just went on a 4-1 run under the total holding three straight Big 10 teams to 47, 45 and 54 points. The Boilermakers are 8-3 ATS their last 11 as a dog, but failed to play good defense against Oklahoma and Duke, both losses.

Illinois
In a conference that prefers slow paced games and choking defense, no one is better than Illinois, allowing 56.5 ppg and 39% shooting, both tops in the Big Ten. A successful style like that needs big bodies in the paint, and the Illini have a pair in 6-9 sophomore Mike Davis (11 ppg, 7.8 rpg) and 7-foot-1 sophomore center Mike Tisdale (11 ppg, 4 rpg).

This is a young team, with sophomore guard Demetri McCamey the leading scorer. One concern is that the bench has been erratic.

"I would like to get them more involved," Illinois coach Bruce Weber said last week of his backups.  In the NCAA tournament, teams play twice in three days, so depth matters. They are on a 10-2 run under the total and 5-2 SU/ATS as a dog. They scored 36 and 33 points in stunning losses to Minnesota and Penn State.

Minnesota
Coach Tubby Smith's team doesn't dazzle with stats and used a soft early schedule to reach 20 wins. As guard Lawrence Westrbook goes, so go the Gophers. Westbrook is a junior guard who leads the Gophers in scoring at 12.5 points per game. When Minnesota beat No. 20 Illinois in the team's first matchup on Jan. 29, Westbrook led the Gophers with 15 points, helping Minnesota snap a 20-game losing streak against Illinois.

The Gophers started 9-1 when he leads the team in scoring. But he totaled only 18 points in one earlier four-game span, part of a stretch that included six losses in nine games. When Big 10 play got rolling in January, the smallish Gophers went on a 4-6 SU, 2-8 ATS run. That included going 0-5 SU/ATS as a dog.

Ohio State
Thad Motto continues to replace stars like Greg Oden, Mike Conley, Jamar Butler, 7-foot Kosta Koufos and Othello Hunter. What's a coach to do? Reload! The Buckeyes are building around 6-7 sophomore Evan Turner (16.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg), plus guards 6-5 freshman William Buford and 6-6 soph Jon Diebler. Turner is second in the Big Ten in scoring.

They are not the power defensive teams they used to be, ninth in scoring defense in the Big 10, but second in offense behind Michigan State. The Buckeyes were on a recent 6-3 run over the total. That stretch included three straight crushing losses to Wisconsin, Northwestern and Illinois by 5, 3 and 2 points.

UCLA has had their way in the Pac-10 in recent years, and throughout history for that matter, but not this season as the Bruins find themselves in the middle of a tight race.

Unlike last season, it has been a free for all for supremacy in the Pac-10 with UCLA, Washington and Cal smacking heads, surprising Arizona State, plus hard-charging Arizona. Here's a look at the strengths and weaknesses of some of college basketball's best teams in the Pacific 10 Conference.

UCLA Bruins
Ben Howland has another talented team, especially in the backcourt with seniors Darren Collison (14.8 ppg) and Josh Shipp (12.7 ppg). Howland knows how to teach defense and the attacking Bruins allow 62 ppg, second best in the Pac-10. They have more competition this season and aren't as strong as a year ago after losing center Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute.

After allowing 42% shooting last season, the Bruins allow 43.6% this year. With a reputation as a dominant defensive team, notice the Bruins recently went on a 9-1 run over the total. UCLA has road trips to Stanford and Cal this weekend. Their last road trip was a disaster, losing twice in the state of Arizona as chalk each time. UCLA is 65-49 ATS the last four years while making back-to-back Final Four appearances.

Washington Huskies
After going just 16-15 last year and starting 2-3 this season, the Huskies have been on a tear. 6-7 senior Jon Brockman (14.9 ppg, 11 rpg) mans the frontcourt, but the backcourt makes this team fly, averaging 80 points behind 5-foot-8 freshman Isaiah Thomas (16.5 ppg) and senior Justin Dentmon (15.8 ppg). These guards attack the basket.

Washington is tops in the Pac-10 in scoring and rebounding. The Huskies lead the conference in both free throws made and attempted during conference play.  In fact, Washington has made more free throws than any other Pac-10 team has attempted. The Huskies have held a particular advantage in home games, attempting an average of 38 free throws at home, compared to 21 for their opponents. They are on an 8-1 run over the total.

Arizona State Sun Devils
The Sun Devils had 19 wins last season, then became the first Pac-10 team to reach 20 this year. They are doing it with defense, allowing 59 ppg, plus allowing 43% shooting in conference play. 6-9 senior Jeff Pendergraph (13 ppg, 8 rpg) mans the frontcourt, but the guy who makes the offense hum is 6-5 sophomore James Harden (21.3 ppg), a likely NBA lottery pick.

Arizona State is second in the conference from the line at 74%. Coach Herb Sendek's squad just topped UCLA and USC and now has a road trip to face both Washington schools this weekend. The Sun Devils are 4-0 SU/ATS as a dog, plus on a 7-2 run under the total with that defense.

California Golden Bears
The Bears have used a strong home court edge and a three-guard attack to have strong season. The three-guard offense leads the team in scoring behind junior Jerome Randle (18.4 ppg), 6-5 junior Patrick Christopher (14.6 ppg) and 6-6 junior Theo Robertson (12.4 ppg).

The streaky Bears went 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS, then turned around and went 3-0 SU/ATS. That included an impressive 22-point comeback victory over Stanford, 82-75. The Bears continue to pace the nation in three-point accuracy, connecting on 45.9 percent of their attempts. Bettors beware: Cal just went 0-3 SU/ATS in three straight as a dog. They also went four straight Pac-10 games over the total.

Arizona Wildcats
The Wildcats stumbled in midseason under interim coach Russ Pennell, but have caught fire the last month while on a sizzling 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS run.  Arizona relies on the frontcourt scoring punch of 6-7 senior Chase Budinger (18 ppg, 6.5 rpg) and 6-9 senior Jordan Hill (18 ppg, 11 rpg).

Arizona snuck into the NCAA Tournament last season to extend its nation-best streak of appearances in the big dance to 24 years. The Wildcats already have defeated three nationally ranked opponents this season and put themselves in position to keep the streak alive. Oddly, Pennell is not likely to win the job permanently, although he has a shot to win Pac-10 Coach of the Year!

The Clippers are currently on a 9-1 Over run, mainly due to an atrocious defense that has allowed 140 and 142 points in the last two games. The Blazers are capable of taking advantage of this, so go Over again.

The Portland Trail Blazers have a potent offense, as was evident the last game, a thorough 108-98 victory over the Atlanta Hawks. 

They racked up 44 points in the paint and accumulated 22 second-chance points. The Blazers used hot shooting to build a 97-61 lead. Fueled by a small lineup, the Blazers made seven of their first 10 field goals in the fourth quarter, as Rudy Fernandez was swishing jumpers and Brandon Roy was doing a little bit of everything.

Now they face a Los Angeles Clippers team that plays no defense, giving up 140 and 142 points the last two games. In fact, the disinterested Clippers are on a 9-1 run over the total. Look for plenty of points in the Rose Garden.

Play the Clippers/Blazers over the total.

Free Pick: Clippers, Blazers Over 204 (-110)

Home of the top-ranked UConn Huskies and sporting a half-dozen teams in the most recent Top 25 polls, the Big East is the deepest conference on college hardwood this season.

Once again the Big East is loaded with talented teams.  Marquette, Cincinnati and Louisville came aboard three years ago, among others, joining powerhouses like UConn, Syracuse and Pitt to form a 16-team Super Big East conference.

A Big East representative won college basketball's national championship five years ago (UConn, 2004) and several will be knocking on the door again.

Connecticut
Coach Jim Calhoun has another dominant Husky frontcourt. They lead the Big East in offensive rebounding, blocks and points allowed behind 6-7 senior Jeff Adrien (14 ppg, 9.9 rpg) and sophomore center 7-foot-3 Hasheem Thabeet (13 ppg, 10 rpg). That duo accounts for 20 rebounds per game! UConn hasn't lost on the road and is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS as a dog.  That's in stark contrast to two years ago when a younger Husky squad went 2-8 SU/ATS on the road and 0-8 SU/ATS as a dog.

The backcourt has senior A.J. Price (12 ppg, 4.4 apg), a fine playmaker, but caught a bad break last week with a knee injury to 6-4 junior guard Jerome Dyson (13 ppg), the second leading scorer. The Huskies are on a 9-3 run under the total. With March around the corner, it's a good time to start turning up the 'D.'

Pittsburgh
Panthers coach Jamie Dixon always seems to come up with dominant big men, be they Aaron Gray and Levon Kendall a few years ago, and now there is another powerful frontcourt behind 6-7 sophomore DeJuan Blair (15 ppg, 12.6 rpg) and 6-6 senior Sam Young (17.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg). Their defense is also terrific, allowing 62 ppg and 40% shooting, tops in the Big East in rebounding margin. The backcourt is also strong behind senior guard Levance Fields (11 ppg) and junior Jermaine Dixon, leading the conference in assists and three-point shooting.

With Blair in foul trouble last week against West Virginia, Pitt resorted to a lighter lineup against the Mountaineers' motion offense. The Panthers paired guards Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker with a combination of forwards Tyrell Biggs, Gilbert Brown, Nasir Robinson and Young, all ranging between 6-foot-5 and 6-8 in height. In a seven-minute span, Pitt forced three turnovers and trimmed a four-point deficit in half in an eventual 70-59 win.

The Panthers want to finish stronger than the last four seasons: They are 6-4, 6-4, 5-5 and 5-5 the last four years over their final 10 regular season games. Pitt is the only Big East school to win 20 or more games and 10 or more league contests in each of the last eight seasons.

Louisville
The Cardinals have been ferocious defenders under Rick Pitino, battling UConn for the top spot in the Big East standings and in points allowed. The frontcourt is outstanding behind 6-9 junior Earl Clark (13 ppg, 8.5 rpg) and 6-6 senior Terrence Williams (13 ppg, 9 rpg). Williams does everything well, leading the team in scoring, rebounding and assists (4.6 apg).

Louisville allows 38% shooting, second in the conference, and has been on a 6-3 run under the total. They started 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS in Big East play. It's a big stretch for the Cardinals, playing back-to-back road games at Cincy and Georgetown. Louisville lost a humbling 68-51 against top-ranked Connecticut. They hope for a rematch in early March in the Big East tourney.

Marquette
The Golden Eagles have already hit the 20-win mark. Unlike other Big East powers, they are getting it done with spectacular guard play behind seniors Jerel McNeal (20 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.8 apg) and Wesley Matthews (18.8 ppg). Both lead the team in scoring and shoot over 40% from long range, with McNeal at 46% from beyond the arc.

Marquette is second in the Big East in scoring and tops in shooting percentage (48%). The offense sparked the Golden Eagles to a 9-0 start in the Big East, but last week they lost two straight on the road at South Florida (57-67) and Villanova (102-84). The Villanova loss was tough as Marquette made 11 of 23 threes and shot 51 percent from the floor...and still lost by 18, allowing 58% shooting!  Games against Georgetown, UConn and Louisville are on deck – all in a row.

Villanova
The Wildcats can beat you with any style. They lead the Big East in scoring and also allow 40% shooting by opponents, third best. They can pound the glass with 6-8 senior Dante Cunningham (17 ppg, 7 rpg), the leading scorer and rebounder.

Villanova also boasts a pair of electric guards in junior Scottie Reynolds (15.4 ppg) and sophomore Corey Fisher (10.7 ppg), who led the way as they topped 100 points in back-to-back blowouts of Syracuse and Marquette. Those were the exclamation points on a sizzling 7-1 SU, 8-0 ATS run. It's always nice to end the year hotter than when you started.

When New York and Golden State met earlier, they went over the total by nearly 40 points.  Play the Over again Tuesday night when the Warriors play host to the Knicks.

Reason: The up-tempo Knicks average 104 ppg, fifth most in the NBA, but also allow 106 ppg – fourth most in the league. Oddsmakers still haven't been able to adjust, as the Knicks are on a 6-0 run over the total.

Golden State is second in scoring and allows 111 ppg – most in the NBA. They've allowed 110 or more points in four of the last five games, and here comes the "push it up the floor" Knicks.

These teams have already met and with a total of 224, the final score was 138-125 – 39 points over the total. Play New York and Golden State over the total.

Free Pick: Knicks-Warriors Over 233 (-110)

It doesn't seem possible, but not a single SEC squad was among the Top 25 in either of last week's polls.  Lurking just outside the ranks are Florida, LSU and South Carolina.

The SEC has a bunch of teams that are loaded with talent, depth and athleticism.  Kentucky won the national championship in 1998, Florida knocked on the door in 2000 getting to the title game against Michigan State, then won it all two straight years.

Here's a look at some of college basketball's best teams in the SEC.

Florida Gators
Coach Bill Donovan has been the king of the SEC the last few years, as well as the college basketball world, with back-to-back titles and has another powerhouse young team. The centerpiece is athletic 6-6 sophomore Nick Calathes (18 ppg, 6.4 apg) who leads the Gators in scoring and assists and is fine rebounder. The frontcourt has pair of sophomore big men in 6-8 Alex Tyus (12 ppg) and 6-9 Chandler Parsons.

The Gators love the up-tempo game (79 ppg) shooting over 49%, tops in the SEC. This young team hasn't been stellar on the road, however, a problem last season. They lost close games at Florida State and South Carolina, and two weeks ago got blown out at Tennessee.

Against South Carolina, Florida let a seven-point lead slip away in the final 2:27. They've been on a 3-1 run over the total the last few weeks with that uptempo attack.

Tennessee Volunteers
The Volunteers have been streaky, even losing four home games. Gonzaga surprised them in overtime, which broke a 37-game home winning streak for Tennessee, the second longest such streak among Division I programs behind Notre Dame entering this season. Coach Bruce Pearl has a pair of juniors running the backcourt with 6-7 J.P. Prince and Bobby Maze, an up-tempo offense that is battling South Carolina for the top spot in scoring in the SEC.

It's the frontcourt that does much of the damage, topping the SEC in rebounding, led by 6-7 junior Tyler Smith (17 ppg, 6 rpg) and 6-9 junior Wayne Chism (13 ppg, 8.8 rpg). They are off a good week, ripping rival Florida, 79-63, and winning at Arkansas by a basket. They are not a stellar defensive team, giving up 74 ppg. They've given up 88 points or more four times (all losses).

South Carolina Gamecocks
The Gamecocks used to be a slow, defensive team, but not now under coach Darrin Horn. They are tops in the conference in three-point shooting. A pair of sparkplug guards lead the team in scoring in junior Devan Downey (20 ppg) and senior Zam Fredrick (16 ppg). Downey through in 33 against Florida last week, but it wasn't enough in a 97-93 defeat in Gainesville. South Carolina is stellar at home, but has a losing road mark.

The frontcourt is undersized with Dominique Archie and Mike Holmes, so defense can be a problem. South Carolina has already matched its SEC win total from a year ago. They had a 78-77 upset at Kentucky, but have road losses at Florida, Kentucky and Tennessee. South Carolina is 4-2 ATS as a dog. Approaching road games at Alabama and Mississippi State will be a challenge.

LSU Tigers
A veteran Tiger squad is getting things done like in the old days when Big Baby Glen Davis was using his wide-body to clog the lane: defense and rebounding. LSU has a pair of rebounders up front in 6-11 senior Chris Johnson (8 rpg) and 6-7, 240-pound junior Tasmin Mitchell (15.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg), plus 6-4 senior guard Marcus Thornton and his 19.9 ppg.

The Tigers are tops in the SEC allowing 63 ppg, as well as in the top three in free throw shooting (72%). They were an 8-point dog and won 79-73 at Tennessee and playing well, all of which makes a January 91-61 loss at Utah even more perplexing. Games this week against Mississippi State and Ole Miss will test their defense.

Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are getting it done with defense, allowing 38% shooting by opponents, second best in the SEC, plus over 8 blocks per game is tops. 6-9 junior Jarvis Varnado (12 ppg, 9.6 rpg) is a rebounding machine and swats close to 5 shots per contest!

Skinny 6-7 Ravern Johnson (13 ppg) leads in scoring. All four of Mississippi State's starting guards reached double figures as the Bulldogs upset Kentucky, 66-57, last week, winning at Rupp Arena for the first time.

"It's a really big win," Johnson said. "Not too many people come into Rupp and beat Kentucky." Note that Mississippi State is still 2-3 SU/ATS as a dog. They are also on a 5-0 run under the total.