Cajun Sports

With the way Hiroki Kuroda has been pitching, getting Manny Ramirez back into the Dodgers lineup tonight should prove too much for the San Diego Padres at Petco Park.

The Dodgers make the trip to San Diego for a three-game weekend set against the host Padres. The Padres completed a four-game set at home on Thursday afternoon versus Houston losing the series three games to one.

Keep an eye on the SBR Contest Calendar for your chance to win great prizes

In the last two games of that series they gave up seven runs in each contest and only managed to score a total of eight runs themselves during the entire series. San Diego is a miserable 5-12 their last 17 at home and 1-7 their last eight when installed as a home underdog.

The road certainly doesn’t get any easier as the Dodgers are 14-2 when facing teams with a win percentage in the range of 38 to 46 percent on the season.

The Padres are 2-8 their last 10 when facing righthanded starters and 9-25 when they face a pitcher whose WHIP is 1.15 or less on the year.  LA has proven to be a tough out in division play posting a record of 44-18 versus opponents from the NL West and 50-22 as a favorite overall.

LA is also active in a MLB System that tells us to play on road favorites with a moneyline of -125 or more, averaging 0.9 homeruns or less per game on the season and coming in off a one-run win in their last game; these teams are 71-22 since the '97 season for +40.6 units of profit.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Dodgers win in tonight’s contest by 1.3 runs and our Math Model also favors LA by 0.95 runs over the Padres so lay the chalk with the visitor as LA grabs game one on Friday night.

Projected Finals Score:  Los Angeles-4 San Diego-3

Free Pick: Dodgers -135

With Derek Lowe in a funk for the Braves and the Phillies owning a strong record at Turner Field, playing Philadelphia as the road dogs in Atlanta tonight is an easy decision

The Phillies and Braves open a three-game set at the Ted on Tuesday night with Joe Blanton scheduled to get the ball for Philadelphia and Derek Lowe for Atlanta.

Keep an eye on the SBR Contest Calendar for your chance to win great prizes

Philadelphia should be excited about facing NL teams again after suffering through another bad interleague portion of their season. The Phillies went 6-12 against the American League this year and 4-11 during the regular season last year for a 10-23 combined record versus the AL. If we look at just their NL record for the same time period, we see they are a league-best 121-81 versus National League teams.

The Ted has been very good to the Phillies with them taking all nine games versus the Braves here last season and winning 14 of the last 17 visits to Atlanta overall. Philadelphia, even with their poor record during interleague play, was able to win their last two games versus the Blue Jays and had won 10 of their last 13 NL games before the latest edition of interleague play began.

Blanton is 4-4 on the year with an ERA of 5.06, although over his last three trips to the bump his ERA is a solid 3.20. In his last start versus the Braves earlier this season, they tagged him for six runs on eight hits over eight innings of work for a 6-2 loss. We expect Blanton’s fortunes to change tonight as our Pitcher Efficiency Index projects a Quality Start for Blanton and a projected win over the Braves.

Lowe will take the hill with his 7-6 record and ERA of 4.53. Lowe is currently on a three-game losing skid with an ERA of 12.34 over that span. In his last outing versus the Yankees he was pounded for 11 hits and eight runs in only three innings of an 11-7 loss. Our projection from our Pitcher Efficiency Index is not quite as bright for Lowe in this situation; even though he has been solid against the Phillies in the past we expect him to struggle here. Lowe is 4-12 (-12.4) in home games when playing against a team with a win percentage of 51 to 54 percent since 1997.

Philadelphia is 10-1 (+10.5) in road games vs. a bullpen with a 3.75-4.50 ERA this season and 10-1 (+9.5) in road games vs. teams averaging 0.5 or less stolen bases per game this season. The Phillies are 17-8 (+10.6) on the road and 12-6 (+8.5) as a road underdog of +150 or less this season.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Phillies win by 0.77 runs over the Braves tonight and our Math Model also favors the Phillies with a projected win of 1.3 runs. The combination of technical, situational and fundamental factors point to a Phillies win at the Ted so back the visitor here as they continue to build on their most recent winning streak with a game one win over the Braves.

Projected Final Score: Philadelphia-3 Atlanta-2

Free Pick: Phillies +125

On the verge of being swept in Houston, Brandon Inge rallied Detroit with a 9th-inning homer on Sunday.  Now the Tigers look to keep that momentum going in Oakland against the A's.

It appeared the AL Central leading Tigers would get swept in their first series of their current nine-game road trip, but a clutch homer by Brandon Inge put Detroit in the win column versus Houston on Sunday. Detroit will look to ride that momentum into a three-game series in Oakland with the first game set for Monday night.

Keep an eye on the SBR Contest Calendar for your chance to win great prizes

The Athletics have lost five straight and are a league-worst 5-13 since June 9. The Tigers outscored the Athletics 34-9 during a three-game sweep in Detroit back in May, but the Tigers have struggled here when facing the Athletics, losing seven of their last eight trips to the Bay Area.

Oakland will send Brett Anderson to the bump with his record of 3-7 and 5.74 ERA. He has only faced the Tigers once and that was back in May giving up nine runs and six hits in 3.1 innings of work in a 14-1 loss.

The Tigers will send Rick Porcello to the hill with his 8-4 record and an ERA of 3.55. Porcello is 2-1 with a 3.67 ERA in five starts this month, and in his only appearance against the Athletics in May he threw for six innings allowing one run and three hits in a 9-1 win. We expect more of the same as the Tigers ride the momentum of Sunday's win over Houston and Porcellos arm to a victory.

The Athletics are 9-26 (-17.2) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Detroit is 22-6 (+14.2) after six consecutive games versus interleague opponents the last three seasons and 14-4 (+9.4) against AL West opponents this season. Lay the chalk with the Tigers as they get the win on Monday night over the Athletics.

Projected Final Score: Detroit-6 Oakland-5

Free Pick: Tigers -122

This is simple: The Twins feast on NL competition and they have Kevin Slowey on the Busch Stadium hill today.  Minnesota is the play in the second game of their series at St. Louis.

The St. Louis Cardinals are hosting a three-game interleague set against the Minnesota Twins at Busch Stadium this weekend. The Cards lost Game 1 to the Twins on Friday night 3-1 and will want to bounce back from that loss though that may be too tall an order on Saturday.

Keep an eye on the SBR Contest Calendar for your chance to win great prizes

St. Louis is facing a Twins team that is 53-18 their last 71 interleague games overall. The Twins are 26-7 their last 33 interleague games versus teams with a winning record, including 8-2 on the road in that situation.

More bad news for the Cards as the Twins will send righthander Kevin Slowey to the bump who is a perfect 7-0 his last seven interleague starts and 10-2 overall on the season. Minnesota’s bullpen has also been solid on the highway with eight chances and seven saves for 87.5 percent with an ERA of 3.06 and a WHIP of 1.149.

The Cards will counter with Todd Wellemeyer who has a record of 6-7 on the season with an ERA of 5.53 and a WHIP of 1.645. When Wellemeyer takes this hill at home his record is 3-5 with an ERA of 5.47 and a WHIP of 1.627. St. Louis is 1-6 their last seven when Wellemeyer is installed as a home underdog and 1-6 when he takes the hill after the team has suffered a loss in their last game.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Twins win on Saturday by 1.6 runs and our Math Model also favors the visitor with a two run victory. So lay the short price with the Twins as they grab the second game of this three-game set to ensure a series win.

Projected Final Score: Minnesota-5 St. Louis-3

Free Pick: Twins -110

The Indians are one AL team that doesn't have an edge over their NL competition in interleague play, and that makes Aaron Harang and the Reds the right call on Friday.

The Cincinnati Reds travel to Cleveland for an interleague weekend series against the Indians. They will face an Indians team that is 5-15 (-11.8) against NL Central opponents and 10-22 (-15.8) in all interleague action over the last two seasons.

Keep an eye on the SBR Contest Calendar for your chance to win great prizes

Cleveland is also 19-36 (-31.1) versus NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs per game on the season since 1997 and 9-20 (-21.2) versus an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse since 1997. The Indians will send Jeremy Sowers to the bump with his 1-6 record and ERA of 6.82 overall which includes a record of 0-2 and ERA of 5.21 when taking the mound at home.

The Reds will send Aaron Harang to the hill with his 7-8 record and 3.66 ERA, which includes a record of 0-1 his last three starts with an ERA of 1.62 although the Reds are 2-1 in those starts.

We will back the Reds here as they capture Game 1 of this interleague series in Cleveland.

Projected Final Score: Cincinnati-6 Cleveland-3

Free Pick: Reds +105

The Blue Jays will break out the brooms tonight at Toronto's Rogers Centre when they go for an interleague sweep against Johnny Cueto and the Cincinnati Reds.

The Cincinnati Reds have found the going tough at the Rogers Centre versus the host Toronto Blue Jays, losing both of the first two games in this three-game set.

Test your skills and win prizes in the SBR Parlay-a-Day Contest

They face a Blue Jays squad that is 64-36 (+18.2) when playing at home with a line range of -150 or less the last three seasons. Toronto is 40-17 their last 57 games as a home favorite and 17-8 their last 25 home games facing a righthanded starter.

The Reds are 8-24 their last 32 interleague road games versus teams with a winning record and 6-18 their last 24 interleague road games facing a lefthanded starter. All bad signs for a Reds team that needs a win to halt a sweep in this series on Thursday night.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Blue Jays win over the Reds by 1.3 runs and our Math Model also signals a sweep by the Jays on Thursday night at the Rogers Centre. Lay the short price with the host as the Jays take all three games in their interleague matchup with the Reds.

Projected Final Score: Toronto-6 Cincinnati-4

Free Pick: Blue Jays -110

Who needs Manny?  The Dodgers continue to roll with the best record in the majors and look to make it two in a row tonight in Chicago against the White Sox.

The Dodgers won the opening game of their three-game set against the host White Sox on Tuesday night by a score of 5-2. Los Angeles has won six of their last eight games overall and look to grab Game 2 and the series win on Wednesday night behind starter Randy Wolf.

Don't forget to check out the SBR Contest Calendar for your chance to win great prizes

Wolf is 3-2 on the year with an ERA of 3.29 in his 15 starts this season and his teammates have managed a 10-5 record in those 15 trips to the bump. Wolf is 3-1 on the highway with an ERA of 2.91 and a WHIP of 1.015.

The Sox will send righthander Gavin Floyd to the hill with his 4-5 and ERA of 4.65 in 14 starts this season. He is 2-2 at home with an ERA of 2.68. Floyd has struggled during his career against the Dodgers posting a record of 0-3 with an ERA of 10.50 and a WHIP of 2.417.

Chicago is 16-18 at home this season -7.0 units while the Dodgers are 21-14 on the road for a profit of +9.1 units. Los Angeles is 20-7 (+13.8) in road games after having won five or six of their last seven games the last two seasons, and Wolf is 12-2 (+10.6) after giving up two or fewer earned runs in his last two outings the last two seasons.

We will back the better team laying a short price or possibly as an underdog as the Dodgers get the win and take the series with wins in the first two games of a three-game set.

Projected Final Score: Los Angeles-4 Chicago-3

Free Pick: Dodgers -105

The Boston Red Sox return to Washington DC for the first time in 38 years when veteran Brad Penny takes the mound against John Lannan and the Nationals.

The Washington Nationals will play host to the Boston Red Sox for a three-game interleague series which features a Red Sox team that hasn’t played in our nation’s capital since 1971.

Don't forget to check out the SBR Contest Calendar for your chance to win great prizes

Boston has won their last four series heading into this matchup with the Nationals who have surprisingly won two of their last three series. Washington took two out of three games versus the Yankees in Gotham and then took two out of three from the Blue Jays at home.

The Nationals will send John Lannan to the bump with his 4-5 record and ERA of 3.38 on the season. The Nats will face a Red Sox pitching staff that has carried their team during the month of June with an ERA of 3.24. Washington is 8-21 when installed as a home underdog and 8-22 when Lannan takes the hill as an underdog. They are also only 6-20 when Lannan is coming off a quality start in his last outing.

Boston will send Brad Penny to the hill with his 6-2 record and ERA of 4.94. Both of Penny’s last two starts have been solid, although he failed to get a decision after throwing six shutout innings against the Yankees before his last outing against Florida in which he allowed one unearned run and three hits over five innings of work in a 6-1 win. Penny is 12-5 with an ERA of 2.54 in twenty starts versus the Nationals.

We have a few key angles that may have an impact on tonight’s contest. Boston is 9-0 (+9.4) when playing with a day off this season and 10-0 (+10.9) after five or more consecutive home games. Washington is 3-23 (-19.9) when their bullpen has thrown for 13 or more innings over their last three games the last two seasons. Boston is 22-9 (+11.3) versus a bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Red Sox win by 2.3 runs over the Nationals on Tuesday night. Our PPR and Math Model also project a Sox win so we will back the visitor here and the better team at this short price as they impose their will on a Nationals team that has played well above their skill level the last two series.

Projected Final Score: Boston-4 Washington-1

Free Pick: Red Sox -135

Mark Buehrle has cooled off since a hot start while Aaron Harang is a serous Comeback Player of the Year candidate. With Harang 6-0 in interleague play, take the Reds at home.

The Chicago White Sox and Cincinnati Reds take to the diamond for the third and deciding game in their three-game interleague weekend set on Sunday afternoon at Great American Ballpark.

You can't win if you don't play. SBR Contest Calendar is a click away.

The Reds opened the series by winning game one on Friday night 4-3 and the boys from the south side of Chicago took game two on Saturday, winning a high scoring affair 10-8.

The Sox will send left-hander Mark Buehrle to the bump with his record of 2-1 and ERA of 4.64 on the road this season. Buehrle has struggled in his last three outings posting a record of 0-1 and an ERA of 5.76. Chicago is 1-2 over that three-game span behind Buehrle. More bad news for the Sox as the Reds are 4-1 their last five when facing a left-handed starter during interleague action.

Cincinnati will send Aaron Harang to the hill for Sunday’s game he has an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 1.200 when he takes the mound at Great American this season. Harang is 4-2 and the Reds are 5-2 when he starts at home and they are counting on another solid performance from the right-hander today.

Over his last three outings Harang’s record is only 0-1 but he has an ERA of 1.53 and the Reds are 2-1 in those three starts. Cincinnati is a perfect 6-0 in Harang’s last six starts in interleague action and 4-0 in his last four home starts overall.

Chicago is active in a MLB System that tells us to play against American League road teams with a batting average of .265 or worse facing a National League starter who’s ERA is 3.70 or better on the season with a team batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games. Since 1997 this system has posted a record of 41-8 for 83 percent winners and a profit of +28.7 units.

We are going to lay the short price with the Reds on Sunday as they get the win and take the series from the White Sox at Great American Ballpark.

Graded Selection:  Cincinnati Reds 3 Chicago White Sox 1

Free Pick: Reds -116

Minnesota is too tough at home to allow Pittsburgh to take a second straight at the Metrodome.  Take the Twins in this Thursday matinee vs. the Pirates.

Wednesday’s interleague matinee will decide this three-game set as each team has won a game by the score of 8-2.  Wonder what the odds on Game 3 ending with the same final score?

Don't get left out of the SBR/Bodog Poker Free Roll Contest

The Pirates will send Zach Duke to the bump with his 2-2 road record and ERA of 3.51, though in his six starts on the highway this season his team has only managed a record of 2-4. Over his last three outings he has posted a record of 2-1 with a 4.29 ERA, with the two wins coming at home and the one loss coming on the road.

The Pirates are 14-22 on the highway this season and 18-37 as a road underdog. Their record is much the same when facing teams from the American League during interleague play going 18-41 their last 59 games. When Duke takes the hill on the road and is installed as an underdog of +150 or less, the Pirates have only won three times out of their last 21, and Duke is only 3-11 his last 14 when pitching on four days rest.

The Twins have been a formidable opponent during interleague play posting a record of 45-13 their last 58 games against the NL. Much of that winning record was built facing foes from the National League Central with the Twins going 24-7 their last 31 against those teams. Minnesota will hang their hopes on righthander Nick Blackburn who is 2-0 at home this season with an ERA of 3.06; the Twins are 4-1 in his five home starts this year.

In Blackburn’s last three trips to the bump he is 1-0 with an ERA of 2.57 and the Twins are only 1-2 in those three starts, but all three came on the road. The Twins are 49-16 when installed as home favorite and a perfect 5-0 the last five at home as the favorite with Blackburn on the hill.

Minnesota has also found success when facing lefthanders during interleague play posting a record of 12-4 their last 16 in this situation. The Twins are 8-1 (+8.5) versus an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last two seasons while Pittsburgh is 7-28 (-18.8) versus an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better since 1997.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Twins win over the Pirates in today’s matchup by 1.8 runs and we also find support with our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index that has the Twins starter and bullpen 0.9 runs better than the Pirates starter and bullpen. Finally we have a MLB System that is active for today’s contest and it tells us to Play On MLB AL home teams with a batting average of .265 to .279 against a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better during the month of June, 34-12 (+22.0 Units) for 73.9 percent winners over the last five seasons and 4-2 (+1.9 units) already this season.

With significant fundamental, situational and technical support we will lay the chalk with the host here as the Twins take game three and the series from the Pirates on Thursday afternoon at the Metrodome.

Projected Final Score: Minnesota-3 Pittsburgh-1

Free Pick: Twins -145

After taking the first two games in this interleague series, the Milwaukee Brewers will have their brooms ready to finish off the sweep over the Indians in Cleveland.

The Milwaukee Brewers are looking to sweep a three-game set on the road against the Cleveland Indians on Wednesday night. After coming back from a huge deficit on Monday night, scoring six runs in the eighth inning to capture Game 1 by a 14-12 score, and then winning Game 2 by a score of 7-5 they should be playing with a ton of confidence.

You can't win if you don't play.  SBR Contest Calendar is a click away.

The Brewers are 35-29 (+4.8) on the season overall and 18-15 (+5.4) on the highway. They are also in two positive situations facing a lefthanded starter and playing under the lights, both situations profitable for this Milwaukee team this season.

Cleveland has struggled in most categories including overall, posting a record of 29-37 (-9.1) and 16-17 at home for -4.6 units. Righthanded starters have been a problem for the Indians as they are only 22-31 (-10.6), and when playing at night they are 18-21 (-5.0), all bad signs for an Indians team needing some help to turn their season around.

The Brewers will send Jeff Suppan to the bump and over his last three trips he is 2-0 with an ERA of 2.12. Suppan is 8-0 (+8.6) after not walking a batter in his last outing the past two seasons, and he is also 5-0 following a quality start in his last trip to the bump.

The Indians will counter with David Huff who is 2-1 with an ERA of 5.19 over his last three trips to the hill. Cleveland is 5-11 as a home favorite of -150 or less, 4-10 versus the NL Central and 3-9 their last 12 at home versus a team with a winning record.

We expect the Brewers to continue their excellent play against the Indians and get the sweep in this series so back the visiting underdog as Suppan and the Brew Crew capture another win on Wednesday night.

Projected Final Score: Milwaukee-6 Cleveland-5

Free Pick: Brewers +110

Texas has emerged on top in the last five series openers at Arlington against the Astros, and Kevin Millwood gives the Rangers the edge to make it six straight.

Rangers Park in Arlington will be the site of this interleague battle between in-state rivals Texas and Houston. Both teams are riding small streaks; the Astros have won their last two games after dropping the first in a three-game set against Arizona while the Rangers are riding a two-game losing streak after taking Game 1 in a three-game series versus the LA Dodgers.

Keep an eye on the SBR Contest Calendar for your chance to win great prizes

Houston is 29-32 (-2.5) on the season and 13-14 (+0.8) on the road. The Astros average 4.2 runs per game on the road while allowing their opponents to plate 5.1 runs per game. Houston’s bullpen has struggled when playing on the highway this season with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.751. Manager Cecil Cooper is hoping tonight’s starter Wandy Rodriguez can give him more than his 5.6 IP average on the road this season.

He is 2-3 with an ERA of 3.74 on the road and 0-2 with an ERA of 7.02 (WHIP 1.860) in his last three trips to the bump overall. Wandy has managed to go 3-0 versus Texas in his career with the last meeting coming at home against tonight’s starter Kevin Millwood for the Rangers back in June of '08 as the Astros got a 7-2 win.

Millwood will certainly remember that start and be looking for a little revenge here tonight. The righthander is 4-1 at home this season with an ERA of 2.19 and averages 7.0 innings per start. His bullpen has been better than Houston’s with an ERA of 4.88 at home and a WHIP of 1.471. Over his last three outings he has been superb posting a record of 2-0 W/L with an ERA of only 0.87 and a WHIP of 1.113.

In Millwood's last start he won at home versus Toronto, 1-0 pitching 7.7 innings and giving up five hits in the win. His previous start before that was on the road at Boston where he pitched 7 innings giving up an unearned run on seven hits in a 5-1 win.

Texas has dominated this series over the last three seasons going 10-5, including 3-0 this season. In games at Arlington during the 2007-08 seasons, the Rangers are 4-2 for +2.1 Units.

The Rangers are also active in a MLB System that tells us to play on MLB favorites of -110 or higher with a bullpen that converts on 75 percent or more of their save opportunities against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season. This system has a record of 79-37 over the last five seasons for 68.1 percent winners and a profit of +29.90 units.

Houston is 0-10 (-10.3) when Rodriguez takes the bump on the road versus teams whose batters draw three walks or less per game.

Finally we see that the Rangers bounce back from losing two of their last three games by going 15-6 (+11.4) this season. With the combination of fundamental and technical support for the Rangers we will back them here in game one of this series as they put an end to both teams’ recent streaks and put us in the winner’s circle on Tuesday night.

Projected Final Score: Texas-5 Houston-2

Free Pick: Rangers -140

Scott Baker has won his last two starts for the Twins, but he still has a 5.59 ERA and he did get 10 runs of support in each of the last two starts. Ted Lilly has been the Cubs most consistent pitcher, so Chicago avoids the sweep.

The Chicago Cubs host the Minnesota Twins on Sunday afternoon for the third and final game in their three-game interleague matchup.

The Twins are looking for the sweep having won both of the previous two games. The Cubs are not only trying to avoid the sweep they are trying to stay above .500 on the season. If they fail it will be the first time since the first week of the 2008 season that the Cubs have been below .500.

The Twins will send Scott Baker to the bump with his 4-6 record and ERA of 5.59. He will be seeking his third victory in a row. In his last two outings he has been given unbelievable run support getting ten runs in each trip to the bump. On Tuesday he allowed the A’s three runs on four hits over eight innings of work in a 10-5 win.

Our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index projects Baker will struggle here and not find the going quite so easy. If we combine his Pitcher Rating with our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index for Minnesota we see that they will not be giving him that type of run support in this contest and they will not get the sweep of the Cubs on Sunday at Wrigley Field.

In an effort to avoid the sweep the Cubs will send their most consistent starter to the hill in Ted Lilly, who has a record of 7-4 and an ERA of 3.00 on the season. The left-hander spent seven seasons in the American League facing the Twins six times with a record of 3-1 and an ERA of 3.52.

The Cubs have struggled at the plate recently scoring a total of six runs during a four-game losing streak which will need to change if they are to have success today. Although Lilly doesn’t need much run support going 6.2 innings giving up no runs in Tuesday’s 7-1 win over Houston and has an ERA of 0.87 in his last three outings.

Our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index projects a Quality Start for the leftie in today’s outing and our TPR Index signals a Cubs win over the Twins by 2.4 runs on Sunday.

A check of the database shows the Twins to be in a negative situation that tells us to play against American League teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season, and that has walked one batter or less in his last two starts. This system has posted a record of 61-29 for +32.7 units over the last five seasons and has already won four of five times this season for a profit of +3.3 units.

We also note that the Twins are 13-30 for -18.1 units when playing on the road vs. left-handed starters the last two seasons. The combination of strong fundamental and technical support we will back the host at Wrigley on Sunday as the Cubs avoid the sweep and stay above .500 on the year.

Graded Selection: Chicago Cubs 4 Minnesota Twins 1

Free Pick: Cubs -140

Join the forum and sign up to play in the MLB Moneyline Madness Contest.

Pittsburgh managed to split their recent four-game set with the Braves, but the Pirates will find winning more difficult this interleague weekend against the Detroit Tigers.

Interleague play returns this weekend in MLB stadiums all around the country. Tonight we are interested in the game at PNC Park between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the visiting Detroit Tigers.

Pittsburgh is coming off a 3-1 win in Atlanta on Thursday to get a split in their series with the Braves at two games apiece. Pittsburgh’s Andy LaRoche delivered the big hit in the top of the ninth with a two-out two-run single to secure the win and split the four-game series versus the Atlanta Braves. For Detroit they also had a big hit in the ninth on Thursday by Curtis Granderson who hit a tying two-run homerun with two outs versus the White Sox. The downside to this is Joel Zumaya of the Tigers gave up a game winning RBI single in the bottom of the ninth as the Tigers lost 4-3.

The good news for the boys from the Motor City is they will be facing the worst team in interleague play with the Pirates posting a record of 64-105 against the American League during the regular season. Their inability to defeat AL teams has already surfaced this season as they lost two of three to the White Sox last month during the first round of interleague action.

Pittsburgh has won six of ten games this month but the AL Central-leading Tigers' loss on Thursday was only their second in their last seven times to post.

The Pirates will send Ian Snell to the bump with his 1-6 record and ERA of 5.54 on the season. Since his lone win, Snell has gone 0-4 with an ERA of 6.00 over his last nine starts with the Pirates only managing to win just two of those games. Snell is 0-2 with an ERA of 10.29 in his last three trips to the hill during interleague play.

Detroit will send rookie righthander Rick Porcello to the mound with his 6-4 record and ERA of 3.98. Porcello was lights out in May winning all five of his outings with an ERA of 1.50, but he is 0-1 in his two starts this month. In his last outing he was not involved in the decision although the Tigers got the win over the Angels, 9-6, as Porcello allowed four runs and five hits over five innings of work.

Our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index projects a quality start from him in tonight’s meeting versus the Pirates. We also note that our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index is projecting a win by the Tigers by 1.7 runs and the Math Model is also on the side of the visitors so we will lay the short price as the Tigers bounce back from their loss on Thursday and continue the AL dominance over the Pirates in interleague play.

Projected Final Score: Detroit-6 Pittsburgh-4

Free Pick: Tigers -131

Check out the SBR Contest Calendar for the latest and greatest capping competitions
.

With a perfect 5-0 mark against the Yankees already this year, and ace Josh Beckett on the Fenway mound, back the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday night vs. the Pinstripes.

Fenway Park will be the site of a three-game set between the Boston Red Sox and their arch rivals from Gotham, the New York Yankees. Game 1 of the series is set for Tuesday night with the first pitch at 7:10 p.m. (ET).

Tonight’s pitching matchup will feature a rematch from when these two got together back on April 25, and neither pitched well with a final score of 16-11 in favor of Boston. Josh Beckett was on the mound for the Red Sox, going five innings and giving up 10 hits, four bases on balls, three strikeouts and eight earned runs in the win while New York's A.J. Burnett pitched five innings giving up eight hits, three bases on balls, three strikeouts and eight earned runs in the loss.

Beckett rebounded from the poor performance, but on May 5 he pitched six innings giving up 10 hits, a walk, striking out five and allowing three earned runs in a 7-3 win over the Yankees and Joba Chamberlain. Over Beckett’s last three trips to the bump he has an ERA of 0.40 a WHIP of 0.750 while pitching 22.2 innings and allowing just one earned run on 10 hits with seven walks, 22 strikeouts and a 2-0 record.

Burnett’s last three outings have seen him pitch 19 innings while giving up eight earned runs on 19 hits, seven bases on balls and 22 strikeouts, posting a record of 2-1.

Boston is 5-0 this season versus the boys from Gotham and 3-0 when playing at Fenway. We expect another solid outing from Beckett tonight as our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index projects a Red Sox win with Beckett getting a quality start. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Sox win by 0.99 runs and the Math Model have the host winning by 1.47 runs over Burnett and the Yankees on Tuesday night. Lay the short price with the host as the Red Sox continue their dominance over the Yankees.

Projected Final Score: Boston-4 New York-3

Free Pick: Red Sox -135


Sign up at the forum and play Tuesday's MLB Totals contest for a chance to win SBR gear
.

Very quietly, Kevin Slowey of the Twins is tied for second in the American League in wins with his 8-1 record, while Eric Bedard of Seattle has not won three straight in two years and has never beaten Minnesota. Take the Twins.

The third and final game of this three-game set will decide the series winner between the host Seattle Mariners and the visiting Minnesota Twins.

Seattle was able to rebound and get a win on Saturday 2-1 after losing on Friday night in extra innings by an identical 2-1 score in 10 innings. The Mariners will send Erik Bedard to the bump with his 4-2 record and ERA of 2.37 on the year. If Bedard can pull off the win on Sunday, that will be the first time he has won three consecutive starts in almost two years.

That is not a real confidence builder when you add the fact he has never defeated the Twins in his career, going 0-5 in nine trips to the bump with an ERA of 4.80. He has taken the hill twice this season vs. the Twins but was not involved in either decision.

The Twins will send Kevin Slowey to the hill with his record of 8-1 and an ERA of 3.97. Slowey didn’t get his eighth win until August of last season, and he is now tied for second in the American League with those eight wins. Minnesota is 5-0 their last five in game three of a series, 6-1 when facing teams from the AL West, 4-1 in Slowey’s last five starts overall and 5-1 when Slowey is coming off a quality start in his last outing.

Seattle has struggled against teams from the Central Division posting, an 18-38 record. They are also 14-31 their last 45 when installed as a favorite of 150 or less. Bedard has also struggled as a favorite in this situation he is 2-5 W/L his last seven starts as a home favorite.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Twins win over the Mariners by 1.3 runs on Sunday at Safeco Field. Our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index also favors the Twins on Sunday with Slowey on the bump so take the visitor here as Minnesota gets the win and takes the series as well.

Graded Selection: Minnesota Twins 4 Seattle Mariners 2

Free Pick: Twins +125

Join the forum and sign up to play in the MLB Moneyline Madness Contest.

Rockies bats have been hot the past two nights, but Cardinals starter Todd Wellemeyer will cool them down on Saturday when St. Louis hosts Colorado in Game 2 of their series.

Colorado took Game 1 of this four-game set between the Rockies and the Cardinals at Busch Stadium in St. Louis on Friday evening, 11-4.

The Cards will be looking to rebound from a poor performance sending Todd Wellemeyer to the bump with his 5-5 record and 5.05 ERA. His record at home is 2-4 but the Cardinals have managed to win one more of his starts for a team record of 3-4 on the year.

St. Louis is 19-11 at Busch this season for +4.5 units and playing at night the Cards are 20-13 for +4.6 units. Wellemeyer is 2-0 with an ERA of 3.60 for a profit of +2.6 units versus the Colorado Rockies.

Colorado will send Aaron Cook to the hill with a road record of 1-2 and 5.81 ERA, but the team's record in his six starts on the highway is 1-5. The news doesn’t get any better when he faces the Cardinals;  Cook is 0-4 with an ERA of 6.56 vs. St. Louis and his team is 0-6 for -7.1 units.

Colorado is 4-14 (-11.4) versus National League teams allowing 4.3 or less runs per game this season. We are backing the hosts as the Cardinals grab Game 2 and even the series on Saturday.

Projected Final Score: St. Louis-5 Colorado-3

Free Pick: Cardinals -130

Join the forum and sign up to play in the MLB Moneyline Madness Contest.

The White Sox have a puny offense, especially in their home park on Chicago's South Side, giving Carl Pavano and the Indians decent value in the series opener Friday night.

On Friday we head to the South Side of the Second City for a three-game set between the Chigao White Sox and the visiting Cleveland Indians. Game 1 of the series is set for Friday night at US Cellular Field with the first pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. (ET).

The White Sox enter off a loss to the A’s on Thursday, 7-0, which was their second shutout loss in the last three games. The Sox lead the majors in that department having been blanked eight times already this season. Chicago has struggled at the plate when playing at home batting a mere .220 as a team at The Cell this year.

The White Sox will send lefthander John Danks to the bump with his 4-3 record and ERA of 4.80. Over his last seven trips to the bump he has pitched six or fewer innings and that is not a good sign for him since he is 1-4 versus the Tribe with an ERA of 5.31 in eight career starts.

The Sox only manage to plate 3.5 runs per game at home and their bullpen has an ERA of 4.63 with a 1.431 WHIP on their home diamond this season.

The Indians will send righthander Carl Pavano to the hill with his 5-4 record and ERA of 5.29 on the season. Pavano faced the Sox for the first time since 2004 back on May 11 and managed to get the 9-4 win, allowing four runs on 10 hits. He started the 2009 campaign by going 0-3 with an ERA of 9.50 during the month of April but rebounded in May posting a 5-1 record with an ERA of 3.60, and looks to build upon those solid performances with a win here tonight.

The Tribe has won six of Carl’s last seven trips to the bump. Pavano is 50-32 (+19.8) against division opponents since 1997, 4-0 following a quality start, 5-1 his last six when he is installed as an underdog, and the Indians are 4-1 their last five when facing a team with a losing record.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects an Indians win by 0.89 runs over the Sox in tonight’s contest. The Math Model and Pitcher Performance Efficiency Index also project a Tribe win over the boys from the South Side, so we are backing the visitor as they surprise the Sox and get the game one win at US Cellular Field on Friday night.

Projected Final Score: Cleveland-5 Chicago-4

Free Pick: Indians +125

Join in the fun with SBR's MLB Parlay-a-Day Contest.

After facing Daisuke Matsuzaka and Josh Beckett the past two games, the Tigers should have an easier time against Tim Wakefield and the Red Sox this afternoon.

Detroit will look to rebound from a 2-0 deficit in this series versus the Red Sox who got a solid performance from Josh Beckett as he carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning before Boston got the 10-5 win on Wednesday night at Comerica Park. That vistory came on the heels of Daisuke Matsuzaka’s first win of the season on Tuesday as the Sox defeated the Tigers 5-1.

The Red Sox will send Tim Wakefield to the bump with a 6-3 record, an ERA of 4.55 and a WHIP of 1.421. Wakefield has struggled on the highway with a record of 3-3, 5.70 ERA and a WHIP of 1.596. Boston is 8-17 their last 25 when Wakefield starts on the road, 3-7 his last 10 when he is a road favorite, 6-17 their last 23 when facing a team with a winning record and 8-20 when he faces a winning team on the highway.

The Tigers will hang their hopes of one win in this series on Dontrelle Willis who is 1-2 on the year with an ERA of 5.56 and a WHIP of 1.588. Willis has pitched well when starting at home; although he is only 1-1 on the season, Willis has a 2.08 ERA and 1.077 WHIP. In 13 innings of work at Comerica Park he has given up only three earned runs on eight hits.

His most recent home start came in a loss to Colorado when he pitched 6.2 innings giving up three earned runs on seven hits in a 3-1 loss. Willis’s only other home start came against Texas and he got the win pitching 6.1 innings giving up no runs on one hit in a 4-0 win back on May 19.

Detroit is 14-4 (+9.4 units) in day games this season. Boston is 30-42 (-15.0 Units) in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs per game the last two seasons. The Red Sox are also active in a play-against system that tells us to fade road teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game on the year versus an opponent whose starting pitcher is working on at least five days rest, 60-40 the last three years for +15.6 units of profit when playing against these teams.

We are backing the host as the Tigers steal one game in this series and cash the winning ticket for us on Thursday afternoon at Comerica Park.

Projected Final Score: Detroit-2 Boston-1

Free Pick: Tigers +125

Minnesota is 25-6 at home vs. southpaws the past couple of seasons, and the Twins will build on that record tonight vs. Cliff Lee and the Cleveland Indians.

The Cleveland Indians fell short on Tuesday in Game 1 of this three-game set versus the host Minnesota Twins. The Twins scored two runs in the third and two in the fifth to take a 4-0 lead into the seventh when the Indians plated two runs and another in the eighth, but the Twins managed to hang on and close out with a 4-3 victory.

Wednesday night the Indians will send lefthander Cliff Lee to the bump with his 2-6 (-8.5) record and ERA of 3.16 in hopes he can help lead the Indians to a road win. Cleveland has struggled on the highway this season posting a record of 10-17 (-4.7). Lee has also found the going tough away from home with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 4.50. In his last three trips to the mound, Cleveland has lost all three games with Lee going 0-1 with an ERA of 3.60.

The Twins are sending righthander Anthony Swarzak to the hill with his record of 1-1 and ERA of 2.08. Swarzak will be making only his third start of the season, losing his last trip to the mound versus Boston, 3-1. In that start he went six innings giving up five hits, three bases on balls and three strikeouts.

His first start of the season saw him go seven innings, give up five hits, three strikeouts and no earned runs in a 6-2 win over the Brewers. He should have some success versus this Indians team as they are 16-25 (-10.3) versus righthanded starters and his Twins are 19-11 (+5.4) at home this year.

Lee is 0-7 (-8.5) with a moneyline of -110 to -150 this season and Minnesota is 25-6 (+19.3) at home versus lefthanded starters over the last two years. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Twins win over the Indians by 1.4 runs and our Math Model also signals a play on the Twins tonight. Take the host here as the Twins get a game two win to secure a series win versus the Indians.

Projected Final Score: Minnesota-4 Cleveland-2

Free Pick: Twins +100

Vicente Padilla has been a road warrior on the mound for the Rangers this season, giving Texas excellent value as big underdogs at the New York Yankees.

The New York Yankees return home after an extended road trip they that ended last night in Cleveland and face the Texas Rangers tonight at Yankee Stadium. This is important because we know that the Yankees are 1-6 their last seven at home returning from an extended road trip of seven or more games.

The Yankees will send righthander A.J. Burnett to the bump with his 3-2 record and ERA of 4.78. He is 0-1 at home in five starts with an ERA of 4.78, giving up 18 walks and six home runs over that span. Burnett is coming off a win versus the Rangers in Texas back on May 27 as the Yankees won 9-2.

The Rangers will send Vicente Padilla to the hill with a 3-2 record and ERA of 4.71 on the season. Padilla has made three starts on the highway this year and the Rangers have won all three while he's gone 1-0 with an ERA of 2.08. Over the three starts Padilla has averaged 7.2 innings per game allowing only nine hits. Padilla’s last three starts have seen him go 2-0 with an ERA of only 1.57 and a WHIP of 0.957 with Texas winning all three games.

The Rangers have been solid when facing righthanded starters at night on the road, going 7-2 their last nine for +725. Texas is 13-5 their last 18 versus righthanders, 20-8 overall, 19-7 their last 26 when Padilla starts on the road and 10-1 their last 11 when Padilla starts versus a team with a winning record.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index gives a slight edge to the Yankees but not nearly enough to lay more than 140 with Burnett on the hill. The Math Model and Pitcher Efficiency Index both favor Texas tonight by 0.98 runs and 1.1 runs respectively. We will back the visitor here as the Rangers cash a big ticket on Tuesday night in the Bronx.

Projected Final Score: Texas-6 New York-5

Free Pick: Rangers +185

The Phillies are 16-6 on the road this season and have enjoyed playing at Petco Park in the past.  Philadelphia opens this series in San Diego with a win on Monday.

Petco Park will be the site of a three-game series between the San Diego Padres and the visiting Philadelphia Phillies, with the first game set for Monday night at 10:05 p.m. (ET).

The Phillies open a 10-game road trip in San Diego and the NL East leading Phillies also have the best road record in the majors posting a record of 16-6 this season. Petco Park has been a favorite of the Phillies with a record of 12-4 since it opened back in 2004; they have won 14 of their last 18 in San Diego overall.

The Padres will send Kevin Correia to the bump with his 1-3 record and ERA of 5.11 on the season. Correia was roughed up in his last outing which was a 6-5 loss at Arizona, giving up six runs and nine hits. He is 1-1 with an ERA of 4.60 in one start and seven relief appearances versus the Phillies.

Philadelphia will counter with Joe Blanton who is coming off his second straight win, and in his last outing he struck out a career-high 11 in seven scoreless innings of work in a 5-3 win versus the Marlins. The Phillies are 4-0 their last four as a road favorite of -150 or less, 21-8 as a road favorite, 37-18 versus teams with a winning record at home and 13-3 in the last 16 starts by Blanton, 6-0 if he starts Game 1 of a series.

The Padres are 2-5 in Correia’s last seven starts as an underdog. Lay the short price as the Phillies capture Game 1 on Monday night in San Diego.

Projected Final Score: Philadelphia-5 San Diego-3

Free Pick: Phillies -125

Justin Verlander has been on a roll for Detroit and has a solid track record against Baltimore.  Take the Tigers on Saturday when they face Jeremy Guthrie and the Orioles.

Baltimore looks to keep their winning streak going on Saturday night. The Orioles have taken the first two games of a four-game set versus the Detroit Tigers, and won their last five overall.

Jeremy Guthrie will take to the bump for Baltimore with his 4-4 record and ERA of 4.90 on the season. The righthander has gone 1-4 with a 6.26 ERA in his previous seven starts. Guthrie is 1-0 with a 4.85 ERA in one start and three relief appearances against Detroit.

The Tigers hope to end the O’s winning streak and they will send one of the major’s hottest pitchers to the hill on Saturday night. Justin Verlander is 5-2 with an ERA of 3.55 on the year but the righthander is 5-0 with a 0.85 ERA in his last six starts, striking out 60 in 42.1 innings of work. Verlander has been solid in four starts versus this Orioles team posting a record of 3-0 and an ERA of only 1.29.

In his last outing on Monday, Verlander allowed five hits while striking out eight in seven scoreless innings in a 13-1 win over the Royals.

Baltimore is 20-41 (-18.9) in home games versus an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better the last three seasons. The Orioles are 15-36 when facing a team with a winning record and 20-51 when installed as a home underdog of +150 or less.

The Tigers are 37-18 as a favorite of -150 or less and 18-6 their last 24 as a road favorite. Because of the O’s current winning streak we are getting decent line value with one of the league’s best pitchers so lay the chalk with the Tigers as Verlander and his teammates take down the Orioles on Saturday night.

Projected Final Score: Detroit-5 Baltimore-2

Free Pick: Tigers -125

The Brewers have opened 10 of their last 11 series with a win, and that trend will continue on Friday when Braden Looper and Milwaukee host the Cincinnati Reds.
Miller Park will be the site of tonight’s National League battle between the Milwaukee Brewers and the visiting Cincinnati Reds. The Brewers are coming off a tough nine-game stretch in which they fell out of first place in their division. Thursday was their first day off since May 15 and it was needed as their bats had fallen silent averaging a mere two runs per game while losing five of their last six.

The loss of second baseman Rickie Weeks for the season due to a wrist injury along with shortstop J.J. Hardy missing four games in the past week have led to their offensive struggles. Hardy returned on Wednesday against St. Louis and had three hits in the loss. The combination of his return and the day of rest should help the Brewers overall.

Milwaukee is 10-1 their last 11 when playing in the first game of a series. The Reds are 18-36 after a 5+ run win for a profit of $1650 when playing against them in their next contest.

The Brewers are active in an MLB system that tells us to play on home teams coming off a 1-run loss and facing an opponent that is off a 5+ run win in which they had at least 10 hits, 31-24 (+235). The Reds are 5-14 their last 19 games following a day off.

The Brewers are also active in another MLB system that says to play on home teams versus a team that has won at least their last three games, 65-30 (+2985). The Reds are 1-9 (-7.8) following a win by four or more runs this season.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Brewers win by 1.3 runs over the Reds on Friday night. Finally we have a MLB System that tells us to play on home teams coming off a 1-run loss in which they left five or more runners on base and had at least five hits versus an opponent coming off a win in their last game, 29-13 (+660) this season.

Lay the short price with the host as the Brewers end the winning streak of the boys from the Queen City.

Projected Final Score: Milwaukee-4 Cincinnati-2

Free Pick: Brewers -120

The last time these two met was the 2008 NLDS with the Dodgers sweeping the Cubs.  Los Angeles has the advantage once again today behind Randy Wolf at Wrigley.

Wrigley Field in Chicago will be the site of tonight’s National League battle between the Cubs and the visiting Los Angeles Dodgers. Both teams enter tonight’s contest off of wins on Wednesday; the Cubs won at home 5-2 over the Pirates while the Dodgers were in the Mile High City and came away with an 8-6 win over the Rockies.

The pitching matchup For Game 1 of this four-game set will be a battle of the Randy’s as the Cubs will send Randy Wells to the bump with his 0-1 record and ERA of 1.50. In his last start on Saturday he allowed three runs on five hits over seven innings in a 3-1 loss at San Diego. The Dodgers will send Randy Wolf to the hill with his 2-1 record and ERA of 3.02. Wolf’s last start was also on Saturday when he faced the LA Angels in interleague play going 6.1 innings allowing four earned runs on 10 hits as the Dodgers pulled out the win 5-4 although Wolf was not involved in the decision.  LA is perfect over his last three starts and Wolf has an ERA of 3.15 with a WHIP of 1.20 striking out 14 batters and only giving five a free pass during that span.

In the Dodgers' win over Colorado on Wednesday they had 12 hits, left 15 runners on base and scored 8 runs. This qualifies the Dodgers in a play-on situation that tells us to play on road underdogs off a win in which they had at least 10 hits and left 10 runners on base, and their opponent is also coming in off a win in their last game; these teams are 13-4 (+1740) in the last 17 qualifying games.

The Cubs scored five runs, had 12 hits and left 14 runners on base in their win on Wednesday over the Pirates. Those numbers qualify Chicago in a play-against situation that tells us to fade home favorites that are coming off a home win in which they had at least 10 hits and left at least 10 runners on base, versus an opponent thatis coming off a road win in which they left at least 10 on base; these teams are a perfect 0-5 (-810) in this situation.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Dodgers win by 1.8 runs over the Cubs on Thursday night in the Second City so play the underdog here as the Dodgers get the win and cash the ticket for us on Thursday night.

Projected Final Score: Los Angeles-2 Chicago-0

Free Pick: Dodgers +112

With little offense and a shaky bullpen when on the road, the Seattle Mariners will be swept out of Oakland this afternoon at the hands of Trevor Cahill and the Athletics.

McAfee Coliseum will be the site of Game 3 in this three-game set between the Oakland A’s and the visiting Seattle Mariners. The A’s will be seeking a sweep of the series after taking Game 1e on Monday, 6-1, and then holding on to capture a 4-3 win last night.

The Mariners have struggled on the road this season posting a record of 9-13 (-3.4 units) and righthanded starters have been dominate against them with Seattle going 11-20 for -10.6 units on the year. The M’s have been unable to plate any runs on the road averaging 3.8 runs per game while managing a batting average of only .258 with an OBP of .303 over that span.

The bullpen has been a problem area as well with a WHIP of 1.705 which is a very costly number when trying to capture wins on the road. Seattle will send Erik Bedard to the bump but the M’s are only 3-5 when he starts on the road this season and 3-6 when he takes the hill versus the A’s.

Oakland has improved of late posting a record of 4-3 their last seven overall for a +2.0 profit. They are averaging 5.1 runs per game at home while holding opponents to only 3.7 per game.

The A’s will hang their hopes for a sweep on Trevor Cahill with his 2-3 record and home ERA of 3.90. The key for the A’s is their bullpen has been solid at McAfee posting an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.141, very good numbers when we know that the starters are only good for six innings or so in each trip to the bump. In Cahill’s last outing versus the M’s he pitched six innings giving up seven hits and was not involved in the decision although the A’s won the game, 3-2.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects an A’s win today over the Mariners by 1.6 runs so we will back the host here as they go for and get the series sweep over a struggling Seattle team.

Projected Final Score: Oakland-4 Seattle-2

Free Pick: A's +105

Texas saw their 8-game home win streak snapped on Monday, and now the Rangers turn to Kevin Millwood to get them back in the win column vs. the New York Yankees.

The Rangers will be looking to rebound from a poor performance on Monday against this Yankees team after Texas suffered an 11-1 loss at home. The Rangers had their eight-game home winning streak snapped as they managed only four hits and were 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position.

New York will send Joba Chamberlain to the bump with his 2-1 record and ERA of 3.70. Chamberlain was hit by a line drive off the bat of Baltimore's Adam Jones on Thursday in the first inning. The next two batters singled before the Yankees brought in relief, but the righthander appears to be ok. He made two starts against Texas last season, going 0-0 with a 7.27 ERA.

The Rangers will send Kevin Millwood to the hill with his 4-4 record and ERA of 3.12. Millwood went the distance in his last outing pitching a six-hitter in a 4-3 loss at Detroit; this was the second complete game loss Millwood has thrown this season.

Millwood is 3-1 (+1.8) at home this season with an ERA of 2.10 and a WHIP of 1.233. The Rangers are 20-8 their last 28 when Millwood takes the bump at home and 4-1 when he is installed as a home underdog.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Rangers win in tonight’s contest by 1.1 runs over the Yankees. The Pitchers Efficiency Index predicts a quality start for Millwood in this matchup so play the host as they rebound from Monday’s performance and get the win over the boys from Gotham.

Projected Final Score: Texas-5 New York-4

Free Pick: Rangers +110

The Dodgers are head and shoulders above the rest of the NL West, and they'll show it in this three-game set starting today when Los Angeles takes on the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field.

Coors Field will be the site of today’s Game 1 of the three-game set between the Colorado Rockies and the visiting Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Dodgers open a seven-game road trip after losing two of three against the Angels over the weekend. The stop in Colorado should help them get back to their winning ways; the Dodgers are 5-1 versus the Rockies their last six this season and LA has been dominate when facing division opponents posting a record of 20-8 against Western Division foes in 2009.

To say they are the best in the NL West would be an understatement because no other team in the division has a record above .500 in division play and LA sets the pace at 12 games over the Mendoza Line.

LA will send Eric Stults to the bump with his record of 4-1 and ERA of 3.82 ERA. The lefthander is 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA in his last three outings. He missed a chance to win his third start in a row on May 15 allowing three runs over five innings of work in a 6-4 win at Florida. Stults is 1-0 with a 4.05 ERA in seven career appearances against the Rockies, including three starts.

The Rockies will send Jorge de la Rosa to the hill with his 0-4 record and ERA of 4.27; he is making his ninth start of the year seeking his first win since Sept. 25 last season. His last outing was his worst as he allowed a season-high seven runs over a season-low 3.2 innings Wednesday in a 12-4 loss at Atlanta.

We will back the Dodgers here as they get an easy win over the Rockies on Monday afternoon at Coors Field in the Mile High City.

Projected Final Score: Los Angeles-7 Colorado-4

Free Pick: Dodgers +120

Despite some short distances down the lines at Minute Maid, the park has been pitcher-friendly this season.  Play the Astros and Rangers to the low side of the total today.

Minute Maid Park will be the site of Saturday’s interleague battle between in-state rivals the Houston Astros and the visiting Texas Rangers.

The Rangers are 18-21 O/U overall on the season and have a propensity to play to the low side when on the highway.  Their record is 8-12 O/U on the road this season. Over their seven games they have fallen below the posted total in six of those seven contests.

Today’s starter Scott Feldman certainly plays to the Under as his record would attest.  He is 0-5 O/U so far this season. Feldman has an ERA of 2.17 on the year and in his last three trips to the bump that number has fallen to 1.47.

The hosts in today’s contest also play to the Under posting a record of 15-22 O/U for the season and coming in below the total in 13 of 20 games at Minute Maid Park. When the Astros face righthanded starters they have posted a record of 9-20 O/U on the season. Houston will send Brian Moehler to the hill with his ERA of 3.18 over his last three outings, but in his career starts versus the Rangers, six of nine have fallen well below the posted total.

Moehler is 8-0 Under (+8.0 Units) vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game on the season the last two years and 24-10 Under (+13.6 Units) against AL West opponents since 1997. Feldman is 22-8 Under (+12.4 Units) in all games over the last two seasons and 15-2 Under (+12.5 Units) in the first half of the season in that time span.

With the current number at 10 we will play the Under here as both have shown they play to the low side in this situation.

Free Pick: Rangers-Astros Under 10 (-110)

Failing to live up to their preseason expectations so far, and with a 1-6 record their last seven vs. the Cincinnati Reds, it will be easy to fade the Cleveland Indians on Friday.

Great American Ballpark will be the site of a three-game interleague series between the host Cincinnati Reds and their in-state rivals the Cleveland Indians, with Game 1 set for Friday night and a first pitch at 7:10 p.m. Eastern.

The Indians' troubles this season have been widespread with pitching and hitting both falling well below preseason expectations. Cleveland entered their 10-game road trip batting .266 overall and a mere .249 with runners in scoring position. Although they have recently seen those numbers improve while facing the Royals and Rays, they have struggled against this Reds team during interleague play.

The Indians have hit .248 while losing six of their last seven to the Reds; during four straight losses at Great American they could only manage a batting average of .218.

The Reds have seen their bats cool of while losing five of their last six games but they could get a huge boost if first baseman Joey Votto is able to return to their starting lineup tonight.  He was hitting .366 before missing the last four games due to an inner ear infection. His return could make an immediate impact on the Cincinnati lineup and that’s not good news for an Indians starter who is struggling on the bump this season.

Cleveland will send Anthony Reyes to the hill with his 1-1 record and ERA of 6.56 on the season. Over his last four starts Reyes is 0-1 with an ERA of 8.84. Even though the Reds have been struggling themselves of late they hope to be able to take advantage of Reyes as he is 1-2 with an ERA of 8.53 in four starts versus Cincinnati. Reyes is 0-8 (-9.4) during May starts over the last two seasons.

Cleveland is 2-8 their last 10 interleague road games, 1-6 their last seven interleague games versus righthanded starters, 1-7 last eight interleague games when installed as an underdog, 1-6 their last seven meetings against Cincinnati and 0-4 their last four meetings in the Queen City.

The Reds will send Bronson Arroyo to the bump with his 5-3 record and ERA of 6.56 on the year. The Reds are 16-5 (+10.7) in home games during the month of May over the last two seasons. Cincinnati is 12-5 (+9.8) versus teams whose hitters strikeout seven or more times per game.

We also want to play on NL favorites -110 or higher with an OBP <=.350 against a team with a bullpen WHIP >=1.550 and a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse on the season, a situation that is 36-12 (+21.1).

With significant technical support for the host and our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index projecting Arroyo to give his team a quality start we will lay the short price with the Reds as they get another win versus the Indians in the Queen City on Friday night.

Projected Final Score: Cincinnati-6 Cleveland-2

Free Pick: Reds -120

After dropping last night's series opener in Boston, Toronto looks to even the series on Wednesday when the Blue Jays take on the Red Sox at Fenway Park.

Fenway Park will be the site of tonight’s American League East battle between the Boston Red Sox and the visiting Toronto Blue Jays.

The Jays would have to be one of the biggest surprises so far this season, with the best record in the league at 27-14. Toronto continues to play well having just swept the White Sox in a four-game series and also owning the highest run differential in the league which is certainly helped by their league leading batting average of .289. The Jays are averaging 6.3 runs per game on the road and have a batting average of .308.

Toronto will send Brett Cecil to the bump with his 2-0 record and ERA of 1.89 in three starts this season. In those starts he has averaged 6.7 innings of work, with 15 strikeouts and only four walks total on the season, which includes a record of 1-0 on the road with an ERA of 0.00.

The Sox will counter with veteran righthander Brad Penny who is 3-1 on the year with an ERA of 6.69. In seven games this season he has averaged 5.2 innings of work, with 20 strikeouts, 16 walks and 31 runs, 27 of those earned, total on the season. When he takes the bump at Fenway he is 2-0 in three starts but has an ERA of 7.63 and a WHIP of 1.826.

Boston won the first game of this series on Tuesday night by the final score of 2-1. We look for the Blue Jays to rebound here and get a win in game two on Wednesday night with the big left-hander on the bump.

Projected Final Score: Toronto-5 Boston-4

Free Pick: Blue Jays +110

Comerica Park has proven to be cursed for the Texas Rangers, and that curse continues on Tuesday when Dontrelle Willis and the Detroit Tigers stay hot at their home park.

Comerica Park will be the site of tonight’s clash between the Detroit Tigers and the visiting Texas Rangers.

The Rangers are playing well of late winning seven straight, is their longest win streak since 2005 when they won nine straight. They also face another streak tonight, and this one has worked against the Rangers: They are winless in nine straight trips to Comerica Park.

The Tigers have also been playing well, entering tonight’s contest off a three-game sweep of the Oakland A’s and having won four straight at home.

Texas will send righthander Brandon McCarthy to the bump with his 1-1 road record and ERA of 8.40 in three road starts this season. McCarthy has averaged only 5.0 innings per start when getting the call on the highway and this is bad news for a Rangers bullpen that has an ERA of 5.18 and a WHIP of 1.752 when called upon on the road.

Detroit will send Dontrelle Willis to the hill which will be only his second start of the season. On May 13 he went 4.2 innings giving up four earned runs on eight hits in a 14-10 loss at Minnesota, a game in which he was not involved in the decision.

Detroit is 11-5 at home this season averaging 7.0 runs per game while allowing their opponents to only plate 4.4 runs per game. A big plus for the Tigers and Willis is the fact Detroit’s bullpen has an ERA of 3.70 and a WHIP of 1.339 when pitching at home. If the Tigers can get five or six innings out of Willis tonight that should be more than enough for the Tigers bullpen to bring another win home against this Rangers team.

Play the hosts here as Detroit is a solid home pup on Tuesday night at Comerica Park in the Motor City.

Projected Final Score: Detroit-6 Texas-4

Free Pick: Tigers +110

Aaron Cook gives Colorado a big pitching edge tonight against Pittsburgh's Ian Snell.  Back the Rockies as small road favorites against the Pirates at PNC Park.

PNC Park will be the site of tonight’s National League battle between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the visiting Colorado Rockies. We went against this Rockies team on Friday with our complimentary selection and the Pirates led 1-0 in the top of the ninth when the Rockies plated three runs and got the 3-1 win.

On Saturday we will back Colorado with Aaron Cook on the bump and his 2-1 record and ERA of 5.03 on the season. Cook has produced a quality start 71.4 percent of the time and he also sees his ERA drop to 2.57 when he throws under the lights. The Rockies find themselves in several positive situations for tonight’s game:

• They are 8-3 their last 11 when Cook starts on the road versus a team with a losing record
• Colorado is 7-2 their last nine as a road favorite
• The Rockies are 4-1 their last five as a favorite of -110 to -150
• And finally, we note they are 6-2 their last eight versus Pittsburgh overall

Pittsburgh on the other hand is staring down a list of negatives including their starter Ian Snell who is 1-5 on the year with an ERA of 4.50, which includes an 0-3 record in his last three trips to the hill. Snell has only produced a quality start in 57.1 percent of his starts and has also struggled at night with an 0-2 record and an ERA of 9.00.

The Pirates are 3-13 their last 16 overall, 18-42 when installed as an underdog, 10-23 as a home underdog and 3-12 their last 15 when facing a righthanded starter. When Snell takes the bump the Pirates are 16-35 their last 51 as an underdog, 2-15 when he is a home underdog, 1-5 their last six following a loss and 1-9 when Snell is working on five days rest.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Rockies win on Saturday by 2.7 runs over the Pirates and the Math Model Index has the Rockies cashing in with a 3.0 run advantage. The combination of fundamental, technical and situational factors suggest we lay the short price with the visitor as the Rockies take game two of this three-game set on Saturday night in the Steel City.

Projected Final Score: Colorado-8 Pittsburgh-5

Free Pick: Rockies -110

Pirates lefty Paul Maholm should have his way with the Rockies hitters on Friday night at PNC Park when Pittsburgh and Colorado open their three-game series.

PNC Park will be the site of tonight’s National League battle between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the visiting Colorado Rockies.

The Rockies have found the going tough on the highway this season posting a 6-10 record for -2.4 units. If the Rockies are under the lights they are 6-12 for -7.0 units. Colorado’s ability to score runs drops off when they are away from Coors averaging only 4.0 runs per game with a batting average of only .236 on the season. The Rockies will hang their hopes on Jorge de la Rosa who is 0-3 on the year including 0-1 in three road appearances.

Pittsburgh was getting solid pitching performances during the month of April but the month of May has been a much different story. They will send lefthander Paul Maholm to the bump with his 3-1 record which includes a 2-0 record at home with an ERA of 2.66. He is coming off one of his worst outings of the season and we look for him to rebound against this Rockies team. Pittsburgh is 16-6 in Maholm's last 22 home starts and 10-1 his last 11 as a home favorite.

Colorado is 18-40 their last 58 road games versus teams with a winning home record and 20-45 when installed as a road underdog. The Rockies are 1-5 in de la Rosa’s last six starts, 0-5 when he is an underdog and 0-4 when he is a road underdog.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Pirates win by 2.0 runs in tonight’s game and the Math Model also favors Pittsburgh with them capturing the home win by 1.5 runs. Lay the chalk with the host as the Pirates and Maholm get the job done on Friday night.

Projected Final Score: Pittsburgh-5 Colorado-3

Free Pick: Pirates -120

The Mets open this 4-game set at AT&T having won eight of their last 10.  Coming off last night's loss to the Braves, New York gets back in the win column at San Francisco today.

AT&T Park will be the site of a four-game set between the San Francisco Giants and the visiting New York Mets with Game 1 of the series set for Friday night at 10:15 p.m. (ET).

This is also the first game of a 10-game road trip for the Mets who are coming in off an eight-game homestand which saw them go 6-2, and 8-2 in their last 10 overall although they lost last night to the Atlanta Braves in 12 innings, 8-7. The Mets will send John Maine to the bump with his 3-2 record and ERA of 4.54.

Maine has pitched well of late winning three straight and posting an ERA of 2.00 over that span. The Mets will be looking for Maine to give them six or seven strong innings of work after seven relievers were used on Wednesday night versus Atlanta. If recent history holds that shouldn’t be a problem for Maine he has gone six innings in each of his last three trips to the bump. The righthander has three career starts versus the Giants with a record of 1-0 and an ERA of 3.78 in those games.

Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez has struggled in his last three starts, including his last outing on Saturday which saw him walk four and give up five runs in an 8-0 loss to the Dodgers. Sanchez has failed to reach the sixth inning in any of his last three trips to the hill and he is 1-3 with an ERA of 4.78 overall on the year.

Those three losses came on the road with his lone win coming at home, but his most recent performances could very well be a sign of things to come especially against a Mets team that is playing extremely well despite their loss last night to the Braves. Sanchez has two career starts versus the Mets going 1-1 W/L with an ERA of 4.09.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Mets win by 1.1 runs in tonight’s contest. The Math Model Index also signals a play on the Mets with a one-run victory over the Giants on Thursday night. Lay the chalk with the visitor as they bounce back from their extra inning loss to the Braves and get their road trip started with a win.

Projected Final Score: New York-2 San Francisco-1

Free Pick: Mets -135

Mark Hendrickson of the Orioles beat the Rays back in April, but he is winless while posting an ugly 7.00 ERA in his last four starts. Andy Sonnanstine is off of his best start of the year, so look for the Rays’ dominance to continue.

Oriole Park will be the site of this two-game mini series between the host Baltimore Orioles and the visiting Tampa Bay Rays.

The O’s took two out of three from the Rays when they met here in April and then split a two-game mini in Cigar City the first of May. This series was dominated by the Rays last season with the Orioles posting a record of 3-15 in 2008 and the Rays are 22-9 the last 31 meetings overall.

This contest provides a rematch between Orioles pitcher Mark Hendrickson and Rays pitcher Andy Sonnanstine, who met back on April 10 with Hendrickson and the O’s getting the 5-4 win. Hendrickson pitched 5.1 innings giving up one earned run on six hits while Sonnanstine threw for 4.2 innings, giving up five earned runs on eight hits in the loss.

Hendrickson’s lone win came in that game, as he lost his next four starts posting an ERA of 7.00 in those outings. He is 1-4 with an ERA of 5.13 overall this season and 3-4 with an ERA of 4.57 versus this Rays team.

Rays starter Andy Sonnanstine is coming off his best outing of the season, as the right-hander pitched a season-high 7.1 innings against the Yankees on Wednesday, allowing two runs and six hits in a 4-3, 10-inning win.

The Rays are 4-0 their last four following a loss in their last game. Tampa Bay is 9-3 their last 12 when Sonnanstine takes the bump vs. the AL East and 8-3 their last 11 when he is working on five days rest.

The Orioles are 17-35 following a loss in their last game, 16-37 their last 53 when installed as an underdog and 5-12 their last 17 when facing an opponent with a losing record on the season. Our PPR (Pitcher Performance Ratings) Index shows the Rays with a rating of 28.8 with Sonnanstine on the bump while the O’s Hendrickson checks in with a rating of -4.9. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Rays win in tonight’s game by 2.3 runs over the Orioles.

With significant technical and fundamental support for the visitor, we will back the Tampa Bay Rays here as they get the win tonight in Baltimore.

Graded Selection: Tampa Bay Rays 6 Baltimore Orioles 4

Free Pick: Rays -130

The Giants are a surprising 10-4 at home, and Randy Johnson has done his best pitching in San Francisco. Daniel Cabrera has been awful while allowing nearly 17 baserunners per nine innings, so back the G-Men at home tonight.

AT&T Park will be the site of a three-game series set to begin on Monday night at 10:15PM EST between the host San Francisco Giants and the visiting Washington Nationals.

The Nationals are 28-65 when playing against a team with a winning record the last two seasons and 7-27 in road games against a National League team with a batting average of .255 or worse. Washington will send right-hander Daniel Cabrera to the bump with his 0-3 record on the highway this season and his ERA of 6.59 including a WHIP of 2.196.

Cabrera has averaged allowing 16.69 men on base this season and has a Power Efficiency Rating of -4.65 not good numbers for a Nationals team that needs solid performances out of their starters. The Nationals bullpen has an ERA of 5.27 and a WHIP of 1.651 on the road. Cabrera is 0-6 his last six starts as an underdog. The Nationals are 15-46 their last 61 installed as a road underdog and 13-39 their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

San Francisco is 10-4 when playing at home this season and 10-10, +1.60 units when facing a right-handed starter. The Giants will send left-hander Randy Johnson to the hill with his 2-1 record at home with an ERA of 1.89 and a WHIP of 0.632. Johnson’s numbers are better than Cabrera’s in that he only allows 12.51 men on base and has a Power Efficiency Rating of +5.02; he also gets solid support from the bullpen as they have an ERA of 2.92 and a WHIP of 1.525 at home the season.

San Francisco is 5-1 their last six as a favorite, 7-2 their last nine at home, 6-2 their last eight as a home favorite and 14-6 their last 20 facing a team with a win percentage of less than .400 on the year.

Key System: Play on MLB home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.000 or more over his last 3 starts, 117-42, +53.2 units the last five seasons. With solid fundamental and technical support for the host we will back the Giants here as they get the win over the Nationals in the Golden Gate City on Monday night.

Graded Selection: San Francisco Giants 4 Washington Nationals 2

Free Pick: Giants -138

With the explosive pitching of young Chris Volstad and his recent success on the road, the Marlins should find themselves with the edge over Aaron Cook, who has not had much success in situations like today's. Take the Marlins.

Coors Field will be the site of the final game of this three-game weekend set between the host Colorado Rockies and the visiting Florida Marlins.

Florida is coming off a solid pitching performance by Josh Johnson in Saturday’s 3 to 1 win over the Rockies. Johnson pitched eight innings of seven-hit ball on a chilly night at Coors Field to get the win. He has so many weapons and that was apparent in the win over Colorado.  Johnson is 3-0 W/L and won his sixth straight decision, dating back to Sept. 13. He has 10 wins in his last 11 decisions since coming back last July from Tommy John surgery.

Sunday the Marlins will send Chris Volstad to the bump with his 1-0 W/L record his last three road outings and an ERA of 2.95 with a WHIP of 1.037. The Marlins are a perfect 3-0 W/L in those three starts by Volstad. He has pitched 18.3 innings giving up 12 hits, 6 earned runs, 7 walks and 14 strikeouts over that span. The Marlins are 21-6 W/L their last twenty-seven games following a win, 11-5 W/L their last sixteen when installed as a road underdog and a perfect 5-0 W/L in Volstad’s last five starts on the highway.

Colorado will send right-hander Aaron Cook to the hill with his 1-0 W/L record at home in three outings posting an ERA of 4.26 and a WHIP of 1.474. In those contests he pitched 19 innings gave up 9 earned runs with 9 walks and 9 strikeouts. The Rockies are 7-12 W/L (-5.0) when facing right-handed starters this season. Colorado is 3-9 W/L after losing their previous game, 2-8 W/L their last ten at home versus right-handed starters including a perfect 0-4 W/L their last four, 2-9 W/L versus a starter whose WHIP is less than 1.15, 13-29 W/L in Cook’s last forty-two starts versus a team with a winning record and 1-5 W/L in Cook’s last six following a quality start in his last outing.

We will back the Fish here as they get the win over the Rockies in the Mile High City on Sunday afternoon.

Felix Hernandez has pitched well vs. Minnesota, and while Francisco Liriano has been OK vs. Seattle, his numbers in those games are not as good as Hernandez’s vs. the Twins. A better pen also makes Seattle the play.

The Metrodome will be the site of tonight’s second game of a three-game set in the Twin Cities between the host Minnesota Twins and the visiting Seattle Mariners.

The Twins captured the first game on Friday night by an 11-0 final. Tonight’s game features a pitching rematch, with Felix Hernandez and the mariners taking the first matchup over Francisco Liriano and the Twins by a score of 6-1 back on April 6th here in Minnesota.

Hernandez went eight innings, giving up one earned run on five hits while Liriano pitched seven innings giving up four earned runs on four hits in the loss. Hernandez is 3-2 with an ERA of 2.23 and a WHIP of 0.97 against the Twins, with the Mariners as a team going 5-2 overall when Hernandez takes the bump against Minnesota.

Liriano is 2-2 with an ERA of 2.32 and a WHIP of 0.90 vs. the Mariners, with the Twins going 2-3 as a team in those games. Comparing their bullpen support, we see that the Mariners have the edge here as well with an ERA of 4.50 on the road, while the Twins bullpen checks in with an ERA of 6.34 in the Metrodome this year.

Seattle has handled left-handers this season, going 8-1 including a perfect 4-0 on the road, averaging 5.9 runs per game against them. Minnesota is 9-12 W/L vs. right-handed pitching, averaging only 4.5 runs per game.

On the technical front we see that Hernandez is 13-4, +12.7 units as a road underdog of +100 or higher the last tow seasons, and the Twins are 0-5 in Liriano’s last five starts as a favorite. Minnesota is 2-7 their last nine when facing a team with a winning record and Seattle is 5-2 their last seven facing a team with a losing record.

Seattle is active in a MLB System that tells us to play on American League underdogs with a team whose OBP is .320 or worse against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better, with a starting pitcher who averages more than 6.5 innings per start, as this is 56-33, +41.0 units the last five seasons.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Mariners win by 1.0 runs in tonight’s contest, so we will back the visitor as Seattle cashes the winning ticket in the Twin Cities on Saturday night.

Graded Selection: Seattle Mariners 3 Minnesota Twins 2

Free Pick: Mariners +100

Rocky Nolasco has not minded pitching in the altitude of Colorado, as he has a 1.69 ERA and 0.81 WHIP when facing the Rockies. On the other hand, Jason Hammel has been brutal.

Coors Field will be the site of tonight’s clash between the host Colorado Rockies and the visiting Florida Marlins.

This will be the first of a three-game set between these two this weekend and the Marlins are hoping to rebound from their 1-3 home-stand which concluded with a 4-2 loss at the hands of the Atlanta Braves on Thursday.

The Marlins will send Ricky Nolasco to the bump with his 1-3 record and ERA of 6.75, which includes a 2-0 team record on the road this season. The key for the fish and Nolasco tonight is he has been money when facing the Rockies, going 2-0 with an ERA of 1.69 and a WHIP of 0.81.

The Marlins are 7-0 when Nolasco takes the hill vs. teams from the National League West, 6-1 facing a team with a losing record, 12-4 when Nolasco is installed as an underdog and 21-10 in his last 31 starts overall.

Colorado will send Jason Hammel to the hill with his 0-0 record and ERA of 3.45. Hammel’s home ERA is 12.00 and he has a WHIP of 3.333 at Coors Field this season. Colorado’s bullpen has struggled at home as well posting an ERA of 5.06 with a WHIP of 1.562.

The Rockies are 2-5 their last seven at home versus right-handed starters and 1-5 their last six when facing teams from the NL East. The Marlins are active in a MLB System that tells us to play on NL teams with a batting average of.255 or less facing a team with a bullpen ERA 4.50 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or higher on the year, 35-17 the last five seasons.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Marlins win by the score of 7-5. Our Math Model Index also signals a Florida win by 2.2 runs over the Colorado Rockies. Take the Marlins as they get the money over the Rockies on Friday night in the Mile High City. 

Graded Selection: Florida Marlins 7 Colorado Rockies 5

Free Pick: Marlins +100

Following last night's 1-0 win for the Mets, Jamie Moyer and the Philadelphia Phillies look to earn a split in those short, two-game set at New York.

Citi Field will be the site of tonight’s National League East battle between the New York Mets and the visiting Philadelphia Phillies.

The Mets won last night 1-0 behind Johan Santana who pitched seven strong innings giving up two hits and striking out 10. They scored the lone run of the game on a throwing error by Pedro Feliz of the Phillies. Phillies starter Chan Ho Park pitched six shutout innings giving up only one hit in the loss.

The Phillies will send Jamie Moyer to the bump with his 3-1 record and ERA of 5.65 on the season. The Mets will counter with Mike Pelfrey who has a record of 3-0 and an ERA of 6.00 during the 2009 campaign.

We know that the Phillies are 6-0 their last six on the highway when installed as an underdog, 4-0 on the road facing a right-handed starter, 16-5 their last 21 as an underdog overall and 19-7 on the road their last 26. The Phillies are 8-2 their last 10 when Moyer starts on the road and 27-8 when Moyer is facing teams from the National League East.

The Mets are 3-10 as a favorite of -110 to -150, 2-7 when facing teams with a winning record on the season, 1-4 in Pelfrey’s last five starts versus teams with a winning record and 4-12 in Pelfrey’s last 16 starts versus teams from the National League East.

Our “Key Angle” for tonight’s game: Moyer is 11-1 (+10.7) in road games against division opponents the last two seasons. Our “Key MLB System” for tonight’s game; Play against NL teams with a batting average >=.280 against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70, starting a well-rested pitcher who is working on five or six days rest, 28-11 (+25.1) since 1997.

We expect the Phillies to bounce back tonight, get the win over the Mets and manage a split in this mini two-game series. Take the chalk here as we cash in on a nice live underdog on Thursday night.

Projected Final Score:  Philadelphia-6 New York-5

Free Pick: Phillies +130

With Houston's bullpen worn out from a recent road trip, look for Rich Harden and the Chicago Cubs to bring home the bacon Wednesday night on the road in Houston.

Minute Maid Park will be the site of this two-game mini-series between the Houston Astros and the visiting Chicago Cubs with the first game set for Wednesday night at 8:05 p.m. (ET).

The Cubs will send righthander Rich Harden to the bump with his 2-1 record and ERA of 5.11. In his last outing he struggled against the Fish but the Cubs managed to get the win last Friday, 8-6 at home. Harden lasted only 3.2 innings giving up a season-high five runs, six hits, four walks and only two strikeouts. He has faced the Astros only once in his career giving up five runs over 5.2 innings of work and was not involved in the decision even though his team won 11-7 (Aug 5, 2008).

The Cubs will be seeking their fifth win in their last six games after having a four-game win streak snapped by San Francisco on Tuesday. Cubs manager Lou Piniella decided to rest several of his key players for the day game on Tuesday since they had just played the night before and they are in a stretch of 20 straight games without having a single day off. We expect them to return to the lineup for tonight’s game in Houston.

Houston is hoping Wednesday’s starter Mike Hampton can give them several innings of work because their bullpen has been forced into too many innings with the Astros starters failing to pitch past the fifth inning in five straight games. Both groups are struggling; Houston’s starters have a combined ERA of 5.31 while their bullpen checks in with a 5.63 ERA.

Hampton is 1-2 with an ERA of 4.88 and is 0-1 with a 6.48 ERA in his last three outings. His last trip to the bump saw him give up six runs in just 4.1 innings of work in a 7-2 loss on Friday in Atlanta. Houston is returning home after an 11-inning battle at Washington on Tuesday that game is suspended with the teams tied at 10 apiece.  The game will be completed on July 9 in Houston. In Tuesday's contest the Astros bullpen contributed 5.1 innings, so if the Cubs can get to Hampton early it may be a long evening for the Houston relievers.

The Cubs are 5-0 their last five facing a pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or higher and 16-7 when facing a lefthanded starter. Chicago is 21-7 as a road favorite, 4-0 their last four as a favorite overall and 4-1 their last five as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Cubs are 11-3 when Harden takes the bump installed as a favorite, 7-1 when Harden starts against the NL Central and 6-1 when Harden is working on four days rest.

The Astros are 7-16 their last twenty-three when installed as an underdog, 3-7 as a home underdog, 2-11 as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 their last four at home when installed as an underdog in that same price range. With strong technical and fundamental support for the visitor we will lay the chalk with the Cubs as they get the win in Minute Maid Park on Wednesday night.

Projected Final Score: Chicago-6 Houston-2

Free Pick: Cubs -135

Texas looks to move closer to Seattle at the top of the AL West this afternoon when Vicente Padilla and the Rangers take on the Mariners.

Safeco Field will be the site of today’s American League clash between the Seattle Mariners and the visiting Texas Rangers. This will be an afternoon start and the second and final game of this series.

The Mariners will send lefthander Erik Bedard to the bump with his 2-1 record and ERA of 2.61 on the season.  He is 1-1 his last three outings with an ERA of 3.06. Seattle is 2-3 on the year when Bedard takes the hill, 2-5 their last seven when he is working on five days rest and 1-4 their last five when he starts in Game 2 of a series. The Mariners are 16-33 their last 49 when installed as a favorite.

The Rangers will counter with righthanded starter Vicente Padilla who is 1-2 on the season with an ERA of 7.42. Over his last three trips to the bump he is 0-1 with an ERA of 6.11. Texas has managed a winning record overall when Padilla starts going 3-2 this season.

The total in this contest is set at 8 and that is a key number for this Rangers team as they are 16-5 their last 21 games when the total is set between 7 and 8½.  Texas is 15-3 when playing away from home with the same total range. This total range is a key number for Rangers starter Padilla as well; he is 9-0 (+12.1 Units) when the total is 7 to 8½ the last two seasons and 8-0 (+11.0 Units) on the road when the total is 7 to 8½ the last two seasons.

Padilla is 7-1 (+8.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record the last two seasons, 20-8 (+17.3 Units) in road games vs. teams whose batters strike out six or less times per game since 1997 and 10-1 (+10.5 Units) vs. teams whose batters draw three walks or less per game the last two seasons.

The Rangers have won two out of the last three times Padilla has taken the hill while Seattle is only 1-2 their last three when Bedard is on the mound. With solid technical support and for both Texas and Padilla we will back the visitor here as the Rangers grab the win and cash a nice underdog ticket on Tuesday afternoon in the Pacific Northwest.

Projected Final Score: Texas-4 Seattle-3

Free Pick: Rangers +155

The Cardinals are looking to get their third win in this four-game series, and it certainly helps to have their team ERA and WHIP leader Kyle Lohse on the bump. Add in the terrible Nats bullpen to the mix and play the Cardinals.

Nationals Park will be the site of today’s final game of this four-game set between the host Washington Nationals and the visiting St. Louis Cardinals.

The Cards took the first two games in the series by scores of 9-4 on Thursday and 6-2 on Friday before the Nationals got a win on Saturday in game three with a final score of 6-1.

St. Louis will send Kyle Lohse to the bump on Sunday, Lohse is the team leader in ERA with a 1.97 and WHIP with a 1.031 respectively on the season. Washington is 6-27 vs. a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better the last two seasons. Lohse is 3-0 this year and has managed a winning record of 2-1 vs. the Nationals even though his ERA is 5.46 when he faces them.

The Cards are 5-1 when Lohse takes the bump vs. Washington overall. St. Louis is averaging 5.7 runs per game on the road with a batting average of .256 and OBP of .336. With Washington’s starter for Sunday only averaging a little over five innings per start the key for today’s matchup may fall into the hands of each team’s bullpen.

The Cards have the edge in this department with a road bullpen ERA of 4.06 while the Nationals home bullpen ERA is 6.06. Washington will send John Lannan to the hill with an ERA of 4.61 and a record of 0-3. Lannan has a team record of 9-27 in all games the last two seasons. The Nationals bullpen has come into play when he takes the mound and has cost him a couple of wins this season. Over his last three starts he has an ERA of 1.96 and a record of 1-0.

The Nationals are 4-14 when facing a right-handed starter and average 4.2 runs per game with a batting average of .261 and an OBP of .352. St. Louis is 11-2 vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better this season. The Cards are also 12-3 when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

Lay the price with the visitor as the Cardinals take this series in our Nation’s Capital three games to one with a win on Sunday afternoon.

Graded Selection: St. Louis Cardinals 5 Washington Nationals 4

Free Pick: Cardinals -125

Chicago's Ted Lilly has never beaten the Marlins over his career and the Cubs have lost his last two starts.  Follow Florida as the road dogs today vs. the Cubs.

The Florida Marlins and Chicago Cubs are set to play Game 3 of this four-game set at Wrigley Field on Saturday with the first pitch at 1:05 p.m. Eastern Time.

The Cubs had lost seven of their last nine games heading into Friday’s game with the Marlins and were starring at number eight trailing 5-2 in the bottom of the sixth when Ryan Theriot hit a grand slam, and the Cubs hung on to win 8-6. The Marlins had several opportunities to score more runs leaving 12 runners on base which matched a season high for the Fish.

On Saturday the Cubs will send Ted Lilly to the bump with his 2-2 record and ERA of 3.80. His last trip to the hill saw Lilly give up five runs, six hits and four walks in just five innings of work in a 7-2 loss to the Diamondbacks. Lilly will be trying to avoid losing three straight for the first time since May 31 2006, when he pitched for the Blue Jays.

He would have picked another opponent I’m sure since the lefthander has never defeated the Fish, going 0-4 with an ERA of 5.53 in five starts versus the Marlins. Lilly is  6-14 (-14.0 Units) versus an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse the last three seasons and 3-11 (-11.5 Units) versus an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse the last two seasons.

Florida will send Anibal Sanchez to the hill with a record of 1-2 and an ERA of 4.13 on the season. Sanchez allowed five runs in 18 innings of work over his first three starts but he gave up six runs, four hits and two walks in the first inning of a 7-1 loss to the Mets on Monday. He actually settled down after that and held the Mets scoreless over the next five innings before being taken out.

The one big inning killed any shot he had at getting the win but he was able to overcome that terrible start and keep his composure which should help him here. He has one career start versus the Cubs on August 16,2008, he pitched 5.1 innings allowing one run, three hits and five walks of a 2-1 victory.

Florida is 7-0 (+8.4 Units) in road games vs. a bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season, 7-0 (+8.4 Units) in road games vs. a bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season and 6-0 (+7.6 Units) versus a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse this season. Florida is 36-19 (+21.2 Units) versus an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse the last two seasons and 40-18 (+25.1 Units) versus an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse the last two seasons.

We are getting decent value with the underdog Fish here so take the chalk as the Marlins end both one game streaks for each team and get back to their winning ways.

Projected Final Score: Florida-5 Chicago-4

Free Pick: Marlins +140

Despite Dodger Stadium being pitcher-friendly, this series has been Over-friendly in this park.  Play the Padres and Dodgers over the total in LA on Friday night.

Dodger Stadium will be the site of tonight’s National League battle between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the visiting San Diego Padres. These two have already met once this season in a four-game set in San Diego with all four games going Under the posted total.

One might think that the same will be true in the City of Angels but history tells a different story; this series has seen the Over cash at a rate of 20-8 the last 28t meetings in Los Angeles, and 13-5 Over the last three seasons at Dodger Stadium.

The Padres are 12-8 Over on the season, 7-3 Over on the road and 9-4 Over when playing under the lights. San Diego will send Jake Peavy to the bump with his 7.87 ERA and WHIP of 1.875 over his last three outings. Peavy is 4-1 Over on the season and a perfect 3-0 Over in his last three.

LA is 11-7 Over this season, 4-1 Over at home, 8-4 Over under the lights and 10-5 Over when facing a righthanded starter. The Dodgers will send lefthanded starter Clayton Kershaw to the hill with his 9.00 ERA and WHIP of 1.50 in his last three times to post. He is 3-1 Over in all starts this season and a perfect 3-0 Over his last three trips to the bump.

We also have two key angles for the starters in this game: Peavy is 7-0 Over in road games in the first half of the season the last two seasons, and Kershaw is 10-2 Over in night games the last two seasons. With solid technical and fundamental support we will play the Over here as the Padres and Dodgers sail above the posted total in the City of Angels on Friday night.

Free Pick: Padres-Dodgers Over 8 (-105)

It's the same story for Arizona on offense with the D-Backs struggling to score runs, and they won't get enough again tonight against the Brewers in Milwaukee.

Miller Park will be the site of tonight’s National League battle between the Milwaukee Brewers and the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona was hoping to duplicate last season’s performance during the month of April but they have come up short with a record of 8-12 (-6.2). The D-Backs are averaging a mere 3.6 runs per game with a batting average of .228 and an OBP of .301. Milwaukee is 26-5 (+17.6) in home games versus National League teams with an on-base percentage .315 or worse, and 17-2 (+14.5) in home games versus NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs per game on the season the last three seasons.

The Diamondbacks are even worse when they hit the highway posting a record of 1-2 (-1.0), averaging only 0.7 runs per game and a batting average of .126. Not only are the Diamondbacks struggling to score runs their bullpen ranks near the bottom in ERA with a 5.43 ERA on the year with four save opportunities and three of those blown. If Arizona has managed to get a lead their bullpen has not been able to hold the lead which in turn never allows this team to build any type of momentum.

Tonight they will send Max Scherzer to the bump with his 0-2 record in three starts and ERA of 4.91 (1-9, -9.7 units last two years). The key for Milwaukee will be Scherzer who has averaged 4.9 innings per start and with any offense at all the Brewers should be able to get into the D-Backs bullpen early.

Arizona is 15-36 on the road facing a team with a winning record, 4-11 on the road versus right-handed starters, 2-7 as a road underdog and 5-16 on the road their last 21 games overall.

The Brewers will send righthander Jeff Suppan to the hill with his 1-2 record and an ERA of 7.32. Over his last three starts the Brewers have gone 2-1 which included wins at Houston, 9-8, and at the New York Mets, 4-2.

The Brewers have owned this series of late going 10-4 (+5.9) during the last three seasons and 6-1 (+4.7) at home when facing the Diamondbacks. Milwaukee is 36-16 at home when facing a team with a losing record, 5-1 their last six versus a righthanded starter, 5-1 when installed as a favorite and 6-2 their last eight when Suppan takes the bump as a favorite. Suppan (team record) is 37-16 (+18.8) at home with a money line of -100 to -125 since 1997 and (team record) 53-36 (+16.3) at home when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1997.

We also have an MLB System that is active for tonight’s game and it says to play against NL road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities against an opponent with a starting pitcher who has an ERA of 6.70 or higher on the year. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects the Brewers getting the win tonight by 1.76 runs. The Math Model also projects a Brewers win with an average score of 5.7 to 3.9.

With all systems go we will back the host here and lay the short price with Suppan as the Brewers get the win.

Projected Final Score:  Milwaukee-6 Arizona-4

Free Pick: Brewers -115

The A's are 16-35 in their last 51 road games, and they will run into a much-improved Kevin Millwood on Tuesday when he takes to the mound for the Texas Rangers.

Rangers Ballpark in Arlington will be the site of tonight’s American League clash between the Texas Rangers and the visiting Oakland Athletics.

The A’s are 7-10 on the year and 3-5 on the road. Oakland will send Brett Anderson to the bump with his 0-2 record in three starts and an ERA of 5.89. He struggled in his only road start of the season in Gotham going 5.1 innings and giving up five earned runs on nine hits with three home runs and two strikeouts in a 9-7 loss. The team he faces tonight averages 7.9 runs at home and 10.2 runs against lefthanders in four games this season batting .335 against them with an OBP of .385.

Oakland is 20-41 their last 61 as a road underdog, 11-23 on the road versus teams with a winning record at home and 16-35 overall on the highway their last 51. This A’s team has really found the going tough when facing righthanded starters on the highway posting a record of 8-21 their last 29 in that situation.

The Rangers will send righthander Kevin Millwood to the mound with his 1-2 record an ERA of 2.10 on the season. He is 1-1 at home with an ERA of 1.69 and has pitched well although his record does not reflect his strong performances to date. Millwood pitched a complete game against the Royals and Zack Greinke but lost 2-0; he gave up the two runs on five hits with three strikeouts and three bases on balls while his teammates failed to plate any runs with seven hits and leaving seven on base.

That should change tonight as the Rangers are 41-13 when favored in the price range of 150 to 200, and 5-1 when Millwood starts in that situation. The Rangers are 19-7 the last 26 times Millwood has taken the bump at home and faced a team with a losing record.

We also have an MLB System that tells us to play against road underdogs in this price range with a team batting average of less than .265 and facing a starter whose ERA is below 4.20, with a starter who averages giving up one or more home runs per start on the season. Playing against these underdogs has produced a record of 21-2 over the last three seasons for a profit of +17.9 units.

We will back the hosts here as the Rangers and Millwood take down the boys from the Bay on Tuesday night.

Projected Final Score: Texas-7 Oakland-4

Free Pick: Rangers -150

Baltimore's defense let Mark Hendrickson down last week when he faced the Rangers, but look for a different story Saturday when the Orioles host Texas.

Oriole Park will be the site of tonight’s Game 2 in this four-game set between the Baltimore Orioles and the visiting Texas Rangers. The Rangers were able to grab Game 1 on Friday night with a 5-4 win. The Orioles will be looking to even the series behind lefthander Mark Hendrickson who got buried the last time he faced this Rangers team on April 15 in Texas.

In that game, Hendrickson lasted 3.2 innings giving up nine runs – only two of which were earned – on seven hits in a 19-6 beating. Hendrickson is 1-2 on the season with an ERA of 3.86 but his home record is 1-0 with an ERA of 1.69. His only outing at home this year saw him get the win over the Tampa Bay Rays, 5-4, pitching 5.1 innings and giving up one run on six hits. The Orioles are 6-3 at home this season averaging 5.7 runs per game with a .290 batting average and an OBP of .374.

Texas is 6-9 on the season which includes a record of 1-5 on the highway averaging just 3.8 runs per game and batting only .187. They will send righthander Scott Feldman to the bump who has pitched in three games this season for a total of 6.2 innings of work with an ERA of 12.15 and a WHIP of 2.239. He has given up nine earned runs on 11 hits, including three home runs, four walks and six strikeouts.

Our Team Efficiency Index shows the Orioles with 55 percent while the Rangers are only 25 percent efficient. Combine this with the TPR Index projection which have the Orioles defeating the Rangers by 1.65 runs in tonight’s clash we will back the host here as they bounce back and even this series on Saturday night.

Projected Final Score: Baltimore-7 Texas-5

Free Pick: Orioles -125

With 25 wins in their last 37 home games dating to the 2008 season, the Houston Astros get the call on Friday against Yovani Gallardo and Milwaukee Brewers.

Minute Maid Park will be the site of tonight’s National League battle between the Houston Astros and the visiting Milwaukee Brewers.

This is not one of the Brewers' favorite places to play having posted a record of 21-44 their last 65 trips to Houston. The Brewers are 5-15 on the road overall their last 20, 4-10 their last 14 on the road versus righthanded starters and 6-20 their last 26 when facing a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or less.

Milwaukee will send righthander Yovani Gallardo to the bump with his 1-1 record and ERA of 4.58 on the season. The Brewers are 0-4 in his last four trips to the mound during Game 1 of a series, 1-4 his last five starts when installed as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 3-7 his last 10 starts overall.

Houston will send Felipe Paulino to the hill with his 0-0 record and an ERA of 0.00 in one start this season which was a home loss to the Reds, 4-2. The Astros are 25-12 their last 37 home games overall. Houston is 22-16 versus a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start the last two seasons and 27-16 versus a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start the last two seasons.

Comparing their Home/Away splits, Houston averages 1.30 more runs at home while Milwaukee is -2.00 runs on the highway. The Brewers are only managing to average 3.2 runs per game when playing on the road with a batting average of .234. Their bullpen has struggled as well with an ERA of 5.47 and a WHIP of 2.108.

Houston has been a little more efficient scoring 4.2 runs per game with a batting average of .291 and an OBP of .364. The Astros bullpen has an ERA of 4.35 at home with a WHIP of 1.290. We are going to back the home underdog here as the Houston Astros grab game one of this three-game set.

Projected Final Score:  Houston-5 Milwaukee-3

Free Pick: Astros +100