MLB Betting Articles

If this was a normal year, we would never recommend playing run line home favorites, as those missed at-bats in the bottom of the ninth are usually hazardous to your financial health.

However, 2008 has been the Year of the Home Favorite, as those teams are an amazing 519-366, 58.6 percent, +7.09 units on the straight money line. Now seven units is obviously not much after 885 games, but the fact that there is any profit at all by blindly playing all home favorites this late in the season is rather extraordinary.

Well, that home success has also spilled over to the run line. If you blindly layed the 1½ runs with all home favorites this season, you would be 364-536, but for +16.43 units. Interestingly, the most lucrative run line favorites have been small home money line favorites of less than -130, as those clubs are 148-213 for a very nice +46.44 units, which translates to an excellent ROI of 12.9 percent.

Here is a breakdown of all home run line favorites this season by all money line ranges (results are for the -1½ run line):

Money Line Home Favorites Only

Thus, we would make the following four suggestions right now until the well runs dry:

1 – Bet on any home favorite that is less than -130 on the money line on the -1½ run line.

2 – Bet the Twins on the run line if they are +1½ at home.

3 – Bet the Cardinals at any run line (-1½ or +1½) on the road.

4 – Bet any of the other four teams in the top six on the run line as home favorites of any price.

Who says we’re in a recession? There’s a bull market on ballplayers right now, and with no shortage of buyers and sellers, supplies are flying off the shelves.

The latest to go at press time: Ray Durham. The San Francisco Giants, who are definitely sellers in this market, dealt the veteran second basemen to the Milwaukee Brewers for two prospects: pitcher Steve Hammond and outfielder Darren Ford. This is the second trade for the Brewers, and it may prove to be just as important as the CC Sabathia deal, given that Rickie Weeks has an unsightly .689 OPS this season. Durham is at .799 OPS.

Who’s next on the carousel? Reliable closers are getting a lot of talk right now. Teams who aren’t winning games anyway have less use for them, and a serious World Series contender can never have enough pitching. Three firemen top my list of trade candidates; for entertainment purposes only, I’m attaching odds to the likelihood that these men will have new employers before the July 31 non-waiver deadline.

Huston Street, Oakland Athletics (8-5)
A’s general manager Billy Beane is a model of consistency. Even with the A’s enjoying a surprisingly good season, he dealt pitchers Rich Harden and Joe Blanton for prospects. Between Harden’s history of injuries and Blanton’s inconsistency, they’re not the kind of players Beane is going to put his stock in.

Neither are closers. This is the same GM who let Jason Isringhausen and Keith Foulke walk as free agents. The A’s were in the playoffs those years; this time around, Street (4.19 ERA, 3.39 xFIP) is more expendable, and he’s eligible for arbitration next year. Street is one of the hottest names on the rumor mill; Beane himself no doubt has something to do with that.

Brian Fuentes, Colorado Rockies (9-5)
Reports have Colorado actively shopping both Fuentes (3.23 ERA, 3.62 xFIP) and outfielder Matt Holliday (.960 OPS). Fuentes is a free agent, but Holliday is a brilliant player with another year left to go on his contract and lots of years left in his career at age 28. I don’t get it. And yet rumor has it both of them nearly went to the Phillies for a healthy package of prospects. In this market, I’ll keep Fuentes near the top of the odds list.

George Sherrill, Baltimore Orioles (2-1)
The Baltimore Orioles don’t have nearly the same reputation for sharp front-office moves as the A’s. But Andy McPhail does, and the O’s have been in recovery mode since he was hired last summer. They brilliantly dealt Erik Bedard to Seattle for a package including Sherrill as something of a throw-in, and now they have a chance to flip Sherrill (3.89 ERA, 4.51 xFIP) for some more prospects. He has 29 saves in his first full year as a closer after a successful 2007 as Seattle’s left-handed set-up man.

A.J. Burnett, Toronto Blue Jays (3-1)
Burnett (4.84 ERA, 3.73 xFIP) was one of the big-name signings that were supposed to push the Blue Jays into contention in the American League East. Instead, the Jays have been stuck around .500, just as they have been for the last four seasons. Toronto already has outstanding pitching with the emergence of Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan to go along with Roy Halladay. What they desperately need, besides a good medical plan, is hitting.

Burnett’s chances of getting dealt are smaller now that the Phillies have Blanton, and he also has a no-trade clause that lists 15 verboten teams. The other half of the league would love to get their hands on him.

If the Philadelphia Phillies win the National League East division, they might look at July 22 as the pivotal date on the MLB calendar – specifically the ninth inning of Tuesday’s matchup with the New York Mets.

Philadelphia cranked out six runs in the ninth to steal an 8-6 victory at Shea Stadium, cashing in at +154 on the betting odds and once again spoiling a quality start by Johan Santana. This is nothing new for the Mets. They’re 11-10 with their ace on the mound, dropping his last five starts even though Santana allowed just eight runs total during that span.

As you might have guessed, relief pitching has been an issue for the Mets this year. They were 13th in the majors at press time with a 3.85 bullpen ERA; not awful, but likely to rise now that closer Billy Wagner (2.20 ERA, 3.13 xFIP) is on the shelf with muscle spasms in his shoulder. He was unavailable Tuesday night after Santana went eight strong innings; Duaner Sanchez allowed the first three runs of the ninth, then Joe Smith took the loss.

Sanchez and Smith are pretty good pitchers, though, so give the Phillies full credit for Monday’s victory. Their MLB-best relief crew (2.70 ERA) picked up a disappointing first start for Joe Blanton, who gave up five runs in six innings of work. The difference in bullpen quality makes the Phillies a potential value pick anytime they face the Mets – including the second game of this series on Wednesday.

One problem for Philadelphia supporters: Brett Myers. He’s making his return from the DL in Game 2, and he wasn’t exactly tearing up the league with his 5.84 ERA (4.49 xFIP) in 17 starts. The Phillies went 4-13 in those starts and lost 13.08 units. That makes Myers the most unprofitable starting pitcher in the majors.

The Mets counter with John Maine (4.22 ERA, 4.67 xFIP). The righthander was humming along quite nicely during the first three months of the season, but hasn’t made it to the sixth inning in any of his last four starts. Maine allowed five walks in each of his last two appearances; however, the hot-hitting Mets (.847 OPS in July) have bailed Maine out. They salvaged a pair of wins last month to improve to 11-9 with Maine on the mound, enough to stay in the black at 0.29 units. The over is 10-7-3 in those 20 contests.

Philadelphia is hoping Maine stays cold. Current Phillies batters have a combined .674 lifetime OPS against him, but given Maine’s inability to go deep into games, they should have ample opportunity to score against New York’s depleted bullpen. They’d better, because the Mets roster has a .784 OPS against Myers, and the righty won’t have a chance to face the two men he’s had the most success against: Luis Castillo (6-for-34) and Moises Alou (1-for-12), both of whom are injured.

The Mets are -140 favorites for Wednesday’s matchup with a total of nine runs. New York has driven the over to a 49-43-8 record on the season, but the under is 53-46-1 for the Phillies. The under is also 8-2 in the last 10 games at pitcher-friendly Shea. This unsightly ballpark, due for demolition after this season ends, is giving up 87.1 percent of the MLB average number of runs. Wednesday’s wet weather may stifle scoring even further; the Flushing forecast calls for thunder and rain in the evening with winds from the south. That’s right-to-left at Shea, and the under is 11-5 in those conditions this year.

Game time is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. Eastern with ESPN picking up the television coverage.

Why do you think there’s a salary cap?

It’s about bringing parity to sports and giving each team a chance to win a championship. Look at the proof in every sport at every level; Who would have guessed the Kansas Jayhawks would have been playing for a BCS Bowl game last year? Who saw the 0-2 New York Giants going on to win the Super Bowl? How do you explain the Colorado Rockies going to the World Series last year?

The sports world our parents knew from the 70s, 80s and 90s is not the same sports world of today.  Money bought championships in those days, parity is about bringing balance to today’s sports.

Why do you think there’s parity? Two words: Sports Betting. Owners knew with the internet and having every thing “on demand” today like NFL Sunday Ticket, to get the younger generation of today – Which I’ve dubbed “Generation What’s In It For Me – would be playing fantasy sports or betting on games to stay interested in the game.  Eventually, sports fans are going to realize if they're going to pay anywhere from $250 to $1000 a year on viewing sports for things such as Sunday Ticket, NBA Pass, MLB Extra Innings, NHL Centre Ice and numerous other Pay Per View events like MMA and Boxing, how can I get a return on this investment?

It’s not like spending $10 to watch a movie for one night; we're talking hundreds of dollars for a season, for one sport! Now that we are forced to pay to watch sports, it’s become “investment TV” in a sense.

Sports betting and Fantasy Leagues are the future of sports and it will one day be considered and treated like the Stock market.

Which brings me to my point, how do you handicap parity? With teams being equal today, you have to research past situations and play the percentages. That’s why it’s important to consider past mistakes for current profits. Good luck with your betting.

Today’s Baseball Pick
Detroit – Baltimore Over 10 (-110)

Action on game.  Keys to selection: When Detroit plays as a favorite during the last five year, with one Under or more, having won their last game by two runs or less and and owning a SU record of 2-3 in their last five games, the Over is 12-2-0 for the Tigers in this spot. Play the Over.

Baseball Streakers
Who’s Hot: NY Mets 9 SU Wins, Cleveland 4 SU Wins  

Who’s Not: Tampa Bay 7 SU Losses, Colorado 4 SU Losses

O/U Streaks: Arizona 4 Over; Philadelphia 3 Over; NY Mets 3 Under; Colorado 3 Under

Today’s Stats and Trends
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati: When the NY Mets play as a road team at night vs. right-handed pitchers, coming off a six-game home stand and a home win as a favorite, the Over is 11-2-1 for the Mets in this role.

San Diego vs. St. Louis: When St. Louis plays as a -100 to -120 home favorite vs. right-handed pitchers after a division game, coming off a win vs. an NL Central opponent and having a one-game win streak, the Cards are 7-33 SU in this spot since ’97.

Pittsburgh vs. Colorado: When Colorado plays as a -120 to -140 home favorite the last five years during the month of July, the Rockies are 12-4 SU in this role.

Detroit vs. Baltimore: When Detroit plays as a road team vs. left-handed pitchers during the 2008 season, the Tigers are 10-3 SU in this role.

CUETO LOOKS TO MATCH JOHAN
The Mets reeled off nine straight wins to close out the first half, winding up significantly over .500, a half-game out of first place in the NL East, and having atoned somewhat for their underachievement under popular fired manager Willie Randolph in the first few months of the season. Now with Johan Santana on the mound to start the second half in Cincinnati, the Mets may look like a good road fave at -140, but I’m not entirely convinced of that.

Despite being loaded with lefty bats, the Reds have not suffered against left-handed starters this year, having gone 18-17 and breaking even on units. They were even able to get to Santana for three runs in six innings earlier this year at Shea Stadium, and I think Santana will probably not have a flawless start here, but rather something of the 7-IP, 2-ER variety.

Up-and-down rookie Johnny Cueto, starting for the Reds, may well benefit from the extra rest conferred by the All-Star break. Unless Cueto get shelled, this game should be competitive throughout, and I am leaning towards the Reds as a good-sized home dog.

PEAVY ROUNDING TO TOP FORM
Jake Peavy’s return from the DL was a bit unsteady in June, for him at least, but his two starts in July were vintage Peavy, and he is likely to be fully in top form for at least the near future. The Padres do tend to get up for games Peavy starts, as his notorious intensity is infectious, and this is a game where the whole team is likely to be playing near the top of their game.

The big question here is whether surprising Kyle Lohse will be able to maintain his fantastic momentum of the first half. Lohse has pitched well all year, and the Cards impressively won 10 out of his final 11 starts of the season, sending him into the Top 20 in baseball in starter P/L.

But I think Lohse is likely to very much revert to his mean in the second half, if not completely collapse. He has a tenuous hold on his game, and overall fatigue will hurt him more than others if he begins to suffer from it.

This may not be the game to start fading Lohse hard, but I do think a 5-inning play on San Diego may have solid value; a shutout first 5 from Peavy would not be a surprise at all.

The All-Star break is a little shorter for the eight MLB teams in action on Thursday. It might not affect their betting odds right now, but if you’re the St. Louis Cardinals you need all the help you can get to make it down the stretch and into the playoffs.

St. Louis went into the break with a 53-43 record, holding down second place in the National League Central and collecting 10.8 units of profit for Cardinals supporters. That’s still 4½ games behind the Chicago Cubs, who improved their postseason chances by acquiring Rich Harden in a trade with Oakland. The Cards also have to contend with the Milwaukee Brewers, who got C.C. Sabathia from Cleveland and sit only a half-game behind St. Louis in the standings.

A four-game set at home against the stumbling San Diego Padres (37-58, -24.21 units) could put the Cardinals right behind Chicago in a very short time. But Thursday’s series opener won’t be easy. The Padres are starting their ace, two-time All-Star and reigning NL Cy Young winner Jake Peavy (2.47 ERA, 3.52 xFIP).

Peavy missed some time earlier this season with a strained elbow; however, the right-handed wizard has allowed just seven runs in six games since coming off the disabled list. His last two appearances before the break were gems; Atlanta and Arizona combined for zero runs on seven hits in 14 innings as the Padres improved to 7-8 (-4.00 units) with Peavy on the mound.

While Peavy continues to pitch at his usual Cy-worthy level, the Cardinals are getting more than they expected from Kyle Lohse (3.39 ERA, 4.52 xFIP). The journeyman righty has a personal 11-2 record and has led St. Louis to the pay window in 13 of 20 starts for a profit of 6.09 units. He’s no Peavy, but he doesn’t have to be when the Cardinals are giving him 4.70 runs of support per game compared to 4.20 for his Padres counterpart.

The Cards would cash in even more often if their bullpen wasn’t rated 25th in the majors with a 4.29 ERA, one notch below San Diego at 4.27. St. Louis relievers have an MLB-worst 22 blown saves and a 13-20 record, including 4-8 in extra innings. Injuries have held the Cardinals’ pitching staff down all season; closer Jason Isringhausen (lacerated right hand) has seen his ERA balloon from 2.48 to 5.97, easily his worst in nine years of full-time relief duty.

San Diego won’t be crying a river for the Cards. Injuries have ruined what was already a dubious 2008 season for the Fathers; most recently, catcher Michael Barrett (.571 OPS in limited duty) fouled a pitch into his own face, joining fellow catcher Josh Bard (.539 OPS, sprained ankle) and second baseman Tadahito Iguchi (.668 OPS, separated right shoulder) on the sidelines. Petco Park is partly to blame for those awful batting numbers – the Padres’ home stadium has a .848 park factor on runs scored. Yet the Pads as a team only improve from .694 OPS at home to .699 OPS on the road. They are truly awful at the plate, pushing the under to a 53-40-2 record.

The Cardinals are ranked No. 5 in the league in hitting at .779 OPS (.752 OPS at home), staying in the Central hunt despite their overall pitching woes and a run differential of +23. That translates to a pythagorean record of 51-45. The Padres, on the other hand, are right on their expected win-loss record at 37-58, having allowed 91 more runs on the season than they’ve scored.

The superior St. Louis hitting is enough to negate the effect of Peavy’s dominance on the betting line. The Cardinals are -120 favorites with a total of 7½ runs; game time is 8:15 p.m. Eastern.

Here we are at the All-Star break, where 97 games is considered the halfway point of a 162-game MLB season. No wonder baseball traditionalists look sideways at number crunchers.

Too bad, because these numbers suggest there’s a mint to be made against the MLB betting odds. At the “halfway” mark of the 2008 campaign, underdogs are charging the pay window at a very healthy 60.67-pecent clip against the runline. That goes up to 62.15 percent for home underdogs on a record of 243-148. Even straight up on the moneyline, home dogs are barking at 194-185. Remarkable.

This puppy power appears to be entirely in keeping with the upside-down nature of the standings. Teams we were used to seeing in the basement are thriving – the 55-39 Tampa Bay Rays front and center. Mostly, however, it’s been the cruel reversal of fortune for some of last year’s top contenders. The 41-53 Cleveland Indians and 37-58 San Diego Padres are last in their respective divisions; the 39-57 Colorado Rockies are also on life support.

But are these four teams the real cause? Digging deeper into the betting numbers, here’s what you’ll find:

• Tampa Bay: 5-3 as a home dog (+2.45 units)
• Cleveland: 9-10 as a road fave (-3.17 units)
• San Diego: 5-3 as a road fave (+1.16 units)
• Colorado: 1-6 as a road fave (-5.53 units)

The Rockies are the prime suspects here when it comes to the home dogs running the marketplace. They have the worst road record in the major leagues at 14-36, coughing up a nasty 17.80 units of cash – mostly as underdogs these days, since not even the dimmest bettor equates the 2008 team with the “Rocktober” juggernaut of late 2007.

But this still only accounts for a small piece of the puppy pie. Never mind the substandard teams in the above foursome; there are a number of quality teams who turn into pumpkins when they have to play on the road. Check out this list, in descending order of unprofitability:

• Atlanta Braves: 15-32, -18.55 units
• Arizona Diamondbacks: 20-29, -10.75 units
• Boston Red Sox: 21-29, -10.31 units
• Chicago Cubs: 20-26, -6.38 units

These are four teams who are making their living at home and only at home. Three of them are division leaders going into the All-Star break. The Braves are below .500 at 45-50 despite having a +28 run differential. Let’s see what this quartet is doing as road faves:

• Atlanta: 7-17, -13.57 units
• Arizona: 10-13, -6.27 units
• Boston: 13-16, -7.12 units
• Chicago: 13-10, +1.22 units

Can’t blame the Cubbies for this one – their road futility has come at the hands of some pretty good teams, like those two interleague sweeps at Tampa Bay and to that other team from the Windy City on Chicago's South Side. The other three clubs, however, are bleeding red ink. The Braves need some serious help in this department; with Tim Hudson on the mound, they’re 7-2 at Turner Field and 3-9 away. Hudson’s ERA rises from 2.13 to 4.09, and his run support drops from 5.56 to 4.17 per game.

No look at chalkeating road faves would be complete without the historically overvalued New York Yankees. They’re 23-23 on the road, down only 3.33 units, but that blows up to 5.46 units as road faves on a record of 15-16. And they can’t even blame poor pitching this time. The Yankees are 14th in the majors in runs scored, down from first last year. The Under is consequently 58-33-3 for New York, second only to Atlanta’s 61-31-3. They account for nearly two-thirds of the 725-639 edge (53.15 percent) the under is enjoying at the All-Star break. What do these guys need, a curfew?

Another year, another batch of MLB All-Star snubs.

I’m not one to get my Under Armour in a bunch over who the fans vote to start in the All-Star Game. When you’re handicapping baseball, you don’t just get used to their bad decisions – you thrive off them. Beating the betting public is how you beat the betting odds, and the public believes just about everything Joe Morgan says.

So rather than kvetch, let’s honor those players who have actually performed the best at their positions during the first half of the 2008 campaign.

American League
C: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins: An easy pick that fans and experts can all agree on. Mauer has the highest OPS for regular catchers at .869 and leads his position with 51 runs created. He also has just one passed ball and has thrown out 34.7 percent of base stealers.

1B: Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox: A close call over Jason Giambi and Justin Morneau. Youkilis is second to Giambi in OPS (.910) and second to Morneau in runs created (59), he wins by a nose because of his .921 Zone Rating.

2B: Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers: Kinsler is a far better choice than fan selection Dustin Pedroia. He leads AL second baggers with a .932 OPS, 23 steals and 78 runs created, more than making up for Pedroia’s superior defense.

3B: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: A can of corn. A-Rod’s defense isn’t great, but he’s got a 1.003 OPS and 13 steals for good measure.

SS: Michael Young, Texas Rangers: Hate to say it, but Young is the best there is right now at shortstop – yes, better than what’s left of Derek Jeter. Young leads his position in OPS (.763) and runs created (47).

OF: Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians: It’s criminal that Sizemore isn’t in the starting outfield and Manny Ramirez is. He’s fourth with a .914 OPS, tops with 22 homers and 69 runs created, and he adds 20 steals and world class defense (.922 ZR).

OF: Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers: A well-deserved starter at .915 OPS, 65 runs created, 19 dingers and a tasty 84 RBIs – even though seamheads aren’t big believers in ribbies.

OF: J.D. Drew, Boston Red Sox: I love Ichiro as much as the next guy, but Drew (.986 OPS, 60 runs created) has saved Boston’s season with David Ortiz out of commission.

DH: Milton Bradley, Texas Rangers: Ortiz got voted in despite playing just 54 games. Bradley leads all players in the AL with a 1.045 OPS. Imagine if the Rangers had some pitching.

P: Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays: Cliff Lee has the sparkling 2.43 ERA, but Halladay is the real deal at 2.88 xFIP, 113 strikeouts and six complete games.

National League
C: Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs: No complaints here. Leads NL catchers at .902 OPS, and his 25.5 percent rate of mowing down base stealers is better than Brian McCann and Russell Martin.

1B: Lance Berkman, Houston Astros: Another solid pick. First in OPS at 1.106, runs created at 81 and very good with the glove (9.66 range factor).

2B: Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies: Make it 3-for-3. A very tough call over Dan Uggla. Utley is second in OPS at .983, but leads in runs created at 68 and is the better defender with a 5.20 RF.

3B: Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves: The NL fans are savvy – although Jones is a lock with a 1.119 OPS and 69 runs created. He also leads in ZR at .833.

SS: Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins: This is too easy: .940 OPS, 21 dingers, 70 runs created make him a deserving unanimous pick.

OF: Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies: Now things get contentious. The fans voted in Ryan Braun, Kosuke Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano. Forget that. Burrell is the best-hitting OF in the senior circuit at .995 OPS, 21 HR and 66 runs created.

OF: Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies: They want to trade this guy? With a .994 OPS and 10 steals to boot? Sacrilege.

OF: Xavier Nady, Pittsburgh Pirates: Many outstanding candidates for the No. 3 slot. I’ll take Nady with his .927 OPS, 54 runs created, and the kicker: nine assists with a 2.56 RF in RF.

P: Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants: Edinson Volquez has stuffed fantasy sheets, but Lincecum is the better choice at 3.48 xFIP, 122 strikeouts and an NL-best 71 pitching runs created.

With all the folklore and hype surrounding Tuesday’s All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium, the American League (-150) should do the homefield crowd proud.  But this may be a rare case where the means do not justify the outcome.

Red Sox manager Terry Francona is using his AL managerial power to make some statements. His first target was the Tampa Bay Rays.  Boston and Tampa have had a heated history for the last few years now.  This was most recently on display during the Coco Crisp-James Shields-Jonny Gomes fiasco back in June.

Francona has responded by overlooking Rays manager Joe Maddon, sporting the leagues best record at the time, for his coaching staff.  He then left Rays rookie phenom Evan Longoria off the team, in favor of Jason Varitek.  This left the fans to get Longoria in the game, which they did.

If Francona uses the argument that he needed a third catcher, that doesn’t fly either.  A.J. Pierzynski (.287  7 HR, 21 doubles) is much more deserving than Varitek (.218, 7 HR, 14 doubles).  So Terry is flexing some authorative muscle.  Which is fine.  He has earned that right.

Just by pure numbers, Francona now has the stage set to have one of his players enter the game late and possibly deliver a winning hit. The hometown Yankees fans wouldn’t even know how to react. Sure, the American League may have just won the game, possibly giving their beloved Yankees homefield advantage should they make the World Series. But at what price? Jason Varitek? J.D. Drew? Ouch. Francona wins again.

I’m completely convinced that this scenario is on Francona’s agenda.  So keep an eye on it.

With that conspiracy theory on the table, here are a few random thoughts on some of the other players.

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Milton Bradley (DH) – I like Milton.  It is good to see him and his three Rangers teammates make the All-Star Game.  I hear they are calling them the Four Tops this year.  I was thinking that The Fantastic Four would be better.  Bradley could be The Thing because with this guy, you never know when, "It’s clobberin time!"

Ian Kinsler (2B) – Kinsler would be Mr. Fantastic because that is what he is.  He should be starting over Dustin Pedroia.  Just a marvelous player to watch offensively.  His average with runners in scoring position is higher than some guys free throw percentage.

Josh Hamilton (OF) – Josh would be the Human Torch because just years ago you could find him torching up in a crack house near you.  I’m very happy for his turnaround.  I’m afraid his arms may be exhausted after all the monster home runs he hit last night.  Holy cow!

Michael Young (SS) – Young would be Invisible Woman.  No reason in particular, but just like Steve Buscemi in Reservoir Dogs, someone had to be Mr. Pink!

Alex Rodriguez (3B) – Strike a pose.

Kevin Youklis (1B) – If Youk and Jason Giambi could come together and donate their facial hair to charity, this world would be a better place.

Manny Ramirez (OF) – I fully expect Manny to do some damage early in the game.  THE RED SOX VS THE NATIONAL LEAGUE, LADIES AND GENTLEMEN!

Dioner Navarro (C) – This guy looked terrible last year.  What a turnaround.  Even Francona had to recognize his great year.

Carlos Guillen (3B) – In the preseason you would’ve expected about 10 Tigers in this game.  Baseball is a funny game.

Evan Longoria (3B) – Perhaps with a little make-up, the NY fans will never know the difference.

Mariano Rivera (P) – If there is to be a hometown hero for the Yanks, this is it.  After all these years, Rivera is still simply amazing.  I could see him striking out the side in a save situation.  Francona wouldn’t be such a jerk to put in Papelbon for the save.  Would he?

Joakim Soria (P) – Because there had to be a player from every team, right?  Can we make an exception for Kansas City?  No?

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Geovany Soto (C) – I grew up with a good friend named Soto.  He pretty much stunk at all things athletic.  So it’s good to see Geovany serve the name a little better.

Chipper Jones (3B) – True story:  About six or seven years ago I almost got into a fight at a bar with some guy who tried to intimidate me by telling me that he was Chipper Jones’ brother.  I don’t know if he was telling the truth or not, but I really wasn’t impressed.  Calmer heads prevailed and that was that.  But I have to be honest.  If I was about to get in a fight with Chipper Jones’ brother today...I would be a little scared.  What an amazing year this guy is having.

Hanley Ramirez (SS) – The most exciting player in this game as far as I’m concerned.  I think the country will be impressed with what they see.

Matt Holliday (OF) – During last year's Home Run Derby, someone had the bright idea to mic up the Colorado slugger.  Matt promptly let two F-bombs fly while batting.  I hope they put a mic on him again for this game.  Speaking of F-bombs...

Kosuke Fukudome (OF) – Has there been a funner name in the history of sports to watch the announcers sweat everytime he comes to bat?  I think not.

Russell Martin (C) – Because there had to be a player from every team, right?  Can we make an exception for the Dodgers?  No?

Chase Utley (2B) – Did anyone else see his face every time he would miss a home run in the Derby last night?  Anyone named after a verb is probably not someone that you would like to hang out with.

Carlos Zambrano (P) – I’m really hoping the game goes 15 innings and the Big Z has to pinch hit.  That will probably be the NL’s best chance.

Now that the preliminaries are finally over, it’s time for the 2008 MLB All-Star Game. And to no one’s surprise, the American League is the favorite at -145 on the betting odds. The National League is +125, or you can get the senior circuit on the runline at +1½, -155.

The AL is the reigning and undisputed king of baseball right now. It’s been 12 years since the NL last won the Midsummer Classic; however, we’ve been treated to some close games lately. Three of the last five matchups were decided by a single run, including the last two contests, and there was that infamous tie back in 2002.

But this star-studded 2008 AL roster looks indomitable – as long as Josh Hamilton isn’t too tired from all those swings he took at the Home Run Derby.

Hamilton (.919 OPS, 91 RBI in 93 games) joins Alex Rodriguez (.972 OPS, 19 HR) and Manny Ramirez (.908 OPS, 18 HR) in the middle of the starting lineup. How many plate appearances they’ll get is debatable; three was a common number for most of the key players last year, with those closer to the bottom of the order getting two. It’s enough work for the starters to make the All-Star player props more than just a roll of the dice. Hamilton, for example, has this juicy prop on the board:

Will Josh Hamilton get an extra-base hit?

• Yes: +250
• No: -350

Heading into the All-Star break, Hamilton had 46 XBH in 425 plate appearances, or roughly 10.8 percent of the time. If he gets three cracks at it, the dirty math says Hamilton has a 32.5-percent chance of coming through, which translates to +208. That would make 'Yes' the value pick, although by the sketchiest of handicapping.

Hamilton will be facing some of the best pitchers from the National League; then again, this is an exhibition game, and Hamilton does have some familiarity with them, having played for the Cincinnati Reds as a rookie. And yet he’s never faced NL starter Ben Sheets (2.85 ERA, 3.78 xFIP) at the major-league level.

Here’s the main prop on the board for A-Rod:

Will Alex Rodriguez strike out?

• Yes: +200
• No: -250

Note the 'negative outcome' prop for Rodriguez. Hamilton is the hero of the All-Star festivities with the great backstory, recovering from drug abuse to become the next big thing in the sport. A-Rod is too good and too well paid. He also has 58 strikeouts in 279 plate appearances (20.8 percent), so 'Yes' would absolutely be a value pick here if he gets his requisite cuts at Yankee Stadium. No doubt he will, since the winner gets home-field advantage in the World Series and the Yankees still have playoff aspirations.

The heart of the NL order consists of Lance Berkman (1.096 OPS), Albert Pujols (1.074 OPS) and Chipper Jones (1.086 OPS). That’s a more imposing trio than their AL counterparts, but the AL has much more depth at the plate and a significantly better roster of pitchers. Berkman is the subject of the tastiest NL player prop:

Will Lance Berkman get a hit?

• Yes: -110
• No: -120

Not a lot of optimism there. Berkman has 116 hits in 397 plate appearances (29.2 percent). He only needs to bat twice in order to boost his chances well above the odds. As a switch-hitter, though, he’ll be batting right-handed against Cliff Lee. Berkman has 32 hits in 104 appearances on that side (30.8 percent), so that actually works in the favor of 'Yes' bettors. Again, it’s all about how much effort Lee (2.31 ERA, 3.16 xFIP) will put into his pitching. We’ll find out when FOX turns on the cameras at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.