NBA Betting Articles

Welcome to the NBA, where the 2006-07 Defensive Player of the Year can be traded for a pair of sneakers and dinner for two at the Cheesecake Factory.

OK, so the Denver Nuggets actually got a $10-million trade exception for Marcus Camby, as well as the right to exchange second-round draft picks with the Los Angeles Clippers in 2010. But the Nuggets might not even use that trade exception before it expires in a year. This deal was all about creating salary cap space for 2010, when LeBron James and a host of other top free agents are due to become available. No wonder the Nuggets have seen their betting odds reduced from 22-1 to 30-1 on the NBA championship futures market.

The Clippers, on the other hand, are up from 75-1 to 40-1 after landing Camby. He can play the high post while Chris Kaman handles things down low. That might not be enough to make up for the loss of Elton Brand to the Philadelphia 76ers, but it does give Los Angeles a chance to make the playoffs in the Western Conference with Baron Davis running the show at point guard.

The Sixers made out like bandits in the free-agent market, improving from 40-1 to 20-1 after signing Brand to a max contract. A frontline of Brand, Samuel Dalembert and Andre Iguodala would wreak havoc in the Eastern Conference. However, the East as a whole is making a serious push up the odds list. The Chicago Bulls (30-1) and the Miami Heat (75-1) are on the rise after drafting Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley, respectively. And the Toronto Raptors are even with Philly at 20-1 following the T.J. Ford-Jermaine O’Neal exchange.

But let’s get back to 2010 for a moment. Only a handful of teams have a serious chance of prying LeBron James away from the Cleveland Cavaliers once he becomes eligible. The New Jersey Nets are believed to be at the head of the class. They, like the Nuggets, appear willing to punt the 2008-09 season in order to get their finances in order. They’re also planning a move to Brooklyn, which would give James a larger public to play for, and there is something of a friendship between LeBron and Nets co-owner Jay-Z.

The Nets made a prominent move toward 2010 by sending top scorer Richard Jefferson (22.6 points per game) to the Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons. That was enough to bump the Bucks up from 150-1 to 75-1 on the futures market. New Jersey’s acquisitions of Eduardo Najera and Keyon Dooling were understandably not enough to prevent the Nets from slipping to 60-1, down from 50-1 at the open.

When it comes to slashing payroll, neither the Nuggets nor the Nets can hold a candle to the Memphis Grizzlies. Having already dumped Pau Gasol before the trade deadline, the Grizz pulled off this curious draft-day deal:

To Minnesota: Kevin Love, Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal, Jason Collins
To Memphis: O.J. Mayo, Marko Jaric, Antoine Walker, Greg Buckner

The curious part of this deal is that the Grizzlies took back Jaric’s bad contract (three years, $21 million) in order to get rid of Cardinal (two years, $13 million). Memphis is now overloaded in the backcourt with Mayo and Mike Conley, among others. But Mayo is also a Friend of LeBron; they both played high school in Ohio and share the same agent. Still, getting James into such a small market as Memphis is a long shot – so are the Grizz at 300-1, down from 250-1 before the draft.

I love it when a plan comes together.

As expected, the Chicago Bulls took Derrick Rose first overall in the 2008 NBA Draft. And as expected, their betting odds for the 2008-09 NBA championship shrank, from 40-1 to 30-1 at press time. Rose will step right into the point guard position on a young Bulls team brimming with talent. But Chicago wasn’t the only team moving up the odds list on draft day.

It took some convincing, but in the end, Pat Riley listened to his people. The Miami Heat president and sometimes coach was not terribly enthusiastic about Michael Beasley, the outstanding power forward from Kansas State who was universally assumed to be available to the Heat at No. 2. Reports had Riley shopping the pick, hoping to trade down for an opportunity to grab one of the many promising point guards available in the Top 10. Instead, Beasley went to Miami and was still a member of the Heat at press time.

This may prove to be the signature moment of the 2008 NBA Draft, even bigger than the Rose selection. The Heat moved from 200-1 to 150-1 on the championship futures market; the 2-3-4 combination of Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion and Beasley will be very difficult to handle in the Eastern Conference. And Riley eventually did get a point guard when the Heat swapped a pair of second-rounders to Minnesota for the No. 34 pick in the draft, Mario Chalmers from Kansas. Yes, that Mario Chalmers.

Thursday’s other big climber was the Toronto Raptors. Their trade with the Indiana Pacers is a go, although it cannot be made official until July 9 (or July 1, according to some reports) because of the usual contract-based shenanigans. Here’s the skinny as we understand it:

• To Toronto: Jermaine O’Neal, pick No. 41 (Nathan Jawai)
• To Indiana: T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, Maceo Baston, pick No. 17 (Roy Hibbert)

The prospect of pairing O’Neal with Chris Bosh on the Toronto frontline was enough to move the Raptors from 25-1 to 20-1 on the NBA futures market. The Pacers, on the other hand, drop from 50-1 to 75-1. They had Arizona point guard Jerryd Bayless fall into their laps with the No. 11 pick, but flipped him and Ike Diogu to Portland for the No. 13 pick (Brandon Rush), Jarrett Jack and Josh McRoberts.

The Trail Blazers made out like bandits Thursday, although not enough (yet) to move them up from 50-1 to win the NBA title. Once the merry-go-round of draft-day deals stopped turning, Portland had dealt their other three selections in the 2008 draft for future picks, plus the Blazers got small forward Nicolas Batum from France. Batum is an athletic, smart defender who slid down the draft list to No. 25 because of concerns about his heart – both literally and figuratively. He and Diogu are both undervalued and have an opportunity to thrive under coach Nate McMillan.

Portland has to be taken seriously in the West now. The Blazers went 41-41 (43-39 against the spread) last year despite losing Greg Oden for the entire season. The team he’ll join is stocked with even more talent; Bayless is a combo guard who draws comparisons to Gilbert Arenas and was projected to go as high as No. 4 in the draft. He’ll spell All-Star Brandon Roy and occasionally play alongside him in the Portland backcourt, with Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge wreaking havoc in the paint.

To be taken less seriously: the New Jersey Nets. They pulled off their own blockbuster deal at the draft, sending Richard Jefferson to the Milwaukee Bucks for Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons. Yi has upside at center, but this cap-conscious move appears to weaken New Jersey in the short term, with an eye on grabbing Cleveland’s LeBron James as a potential free agent when the Nets move to Brooklyn in 2010. Jersey also remains at 50-1 to win the title.

Not to be outdone at the end of the night, the Memphis Grizzlies reportedly got out from under Brian Cardinal’s contract with this eye-opener:

• To Minnesota: Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal, Jason Collins, pick No. 5 (Kevin Love)
• To Memphis: Marko Jaric, Antoine Walker, Greg Buckner, pick No. 3 (O.J. Mayo)

Mayo is the better prospect, but the Wolves (100-1) have to be thrilled to land both Love and Miller. Kevin McHale’s redemption is at hand.

When Kevin Garnett speaks, bettors listen.

As Garnett triumphantly proclaimed, anything is possible – even beating the Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points. Game 6 of the NBA Finals was an absolute masterpiece from a Boston Celtics standpoint; the C’s destroyed Los Angeles in every facet of the game, winning 131-92 as 4½-point favorites to wrap up their 17th championship.

The Lakers lost a lot of respect Tuesday night. They opened as 5-2 favorites on the futures list to win the 2008-09 NBA title, but fell to 3-1 the morning after their epic humiliation. The Celtics made the leap from 7-2 to join Los Angeles as the co-favorites for next year. As much as Lakers supporters anticipate the return of Andrew Bynum to the starting rotation, that optimism has been steamrolled by the negative reviews for coach Phil Jackson’s work in this year’s Finals.

Expectations for the Lakers were too high to begin with. The Western Conference champs went into the Finals on a roll, while Boston was extended to seven games by both the Atlanta Hawks and the Cleveland Cavaliers. It was enough to make Los Angeles a -150 series favorite to beat the Celtics; instead, Boston took all six games against the spread.

Ray Allen was one of the major factors from a handicapping standpoint. He was virtually invisible against the Cavaliers before coming alive late in the Eastern Finals against the Detroit Pistons. Allen shot 22-for-42 from downtown against the Lakers, who didn’t come close to matching the defensive intensity of the Cavs – or the Hawks, for that matter.

Boston, on the other hand, was all over Los Angeles like ants on a glazed ham. The Celtics were the best defense in the NBA by far during the regular season at 96.2 points allowed per 100 possessions; against playoff-quality opposition, that number rose to 99.8, narrowly behind Cleveland for first in the league. The Los Angeles defense was a distant sixth among the playoff teams at 104.8 points allowed per 100 possessions.

After their fall from grace, the Lakers admitted to a man that their defense simply wasn’t up to championship snuff. The subtext: Without Bynum, they were skating by.

“We were surprised we were here,” Jackson told reporters, “and we’re glad that we had an opportunity.”

Their title chances will be much better with Bynum in the paint and Pau Gasol moving to the high post; they’ll be better still if L.A. can convince Ron Artest to opt out of his contract with the Sacramento Kings. Artest was the 2004 Defensive Player of the Year and still has plenty of tread on his tires at age 28.

The Celtics, meanwhile, have some work to do during the offseason. Tom Thibodeau, right-hand man to coach Doc Rivers and the architect of the Boston defense, is a very strong candidate to land a head coaching job somewhere in the league. The roster will be a year older; the Big Three of Garnett, Allen and Finals MVP Paul Pierce are all north of 30, as are many of the reserves. It’s hardly a panic situation, but Boston at 3-1 has little to offer for value-conscious handicappers.

Cleveland is another story. The Cavs are 15-1; they went to the Finals two years ago and may have been a Daniel Gibson injury away from doing so again this year. Danny Ferry remade the roster around LeBron James at the trade deadline, improving the defense with Ben Wallace and Joe Smith while also adding some much-needed perimeter offense in Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West. More reinforcements are on their way – Michael Redd’s name has been invoked on many an occasion, as the Milwaukee Bucks look to shed payroll and build around Yi Jianlian and Andrew Bogut. Don’t expect Cleveland to stay at 15-1 for long.

The NBA Draft usually doesn’t have an immediate impact on the betting odds. There’s nothing usual about this Thursday night’s draft, however.

The Chicago Bulls have the first overall pick despite going into the draft lottery with a 1.7-percent chance of winning. All indications at press time were that the Bulls would select Derrick Rose, the point guard prodigy who led the Memphis Tigers to the brink of the NCAA men’s basketball title. Rose projects to be an instant upgrade over incumbent Kirk Hinrich, who is no slouch himself.

The Bulls are 40-1 on the futures market to win the 2009 NBA Finals. Last year’s squad was one of the preseason favorites to come out on top in the Eastern Conference before stumbling out of the gate, firing coach Scott Skiles and finishing 11th in the East at 33-49 (36-46 against the spread). The problem wasn’t Skiles, but a lack of cohesive talent and leadership on the floor. Rose will provide both in ample amounts.

The team he’ll lead will also look a lot different than the one that lost 10 of its first 12 games in 2007-08. As part of their deadline deal, the Bulls swapped a pair of underperforming players with huge contracts in Larry Hughes and Ben Wallace. Hughes’ slashing style is a better fit for the Bulls than it was in Cleveland, and removing Wallace from the team gave undervalued rookies Joakim Noah (15.54 PER) and Aaron Gray (14.02 PER) the chance to develop. Chicago could jump right back into the mix in the East once Rose joins forces with these young, talented players.

The Miami Heat are also due for an upgrade. They were last in the NBA last year at 15-67 (35-46-1 ATS), but they were also putting a D-League team on the court toward the end of the season. Dwyane Wade was shut down in early March. Shawn Marion followed soon after. Both are expected back and healthy after Marion decided not to opt out of the last year of his contract at $17.8 million.

They’re about to be joined by a considerable amount of talent. Reports at press time had the Heat shopping the No. 2 pick, looking to trade down to No. 4 or No. 5 and select a point guard of their own rather than take highly-rated power forward Michael Beasley from Kansas State. The most compelling offer has the cost-cutting Memphis Grizzlies (at No. 5) offering to trade up, with shooting guard Mike Miller (16.18 PER) and point guard Kyle Lowry (14.32 PER) going to Florida. The Heat would then wait for either O.J. Mayo or Jerryd Bayless to fall into their laps at No. 5. Both guards worked out for Miami to rave reviews.

How Miami decides to deal with the No. 2 pick will set the dominoes tumbling for the rest of the draft. This will surely not be the only major trade this week. The Toronto Raptors have already started the proceedings by sending point guard T.J. Ford to the Indiana Pacers as part of a package for forward-center Jermaine O’Neal. It’s a heck of a package for Indiana, as well: Ford, center Rasho Nesterovic, the No. 17 pick in this year’s draft, and a later pick to balance out the dollars for salary-cap purposes.

It’s a major gamble for Toronto, but a frontcourt combo of O’Neal (14.40 PER in injury-limited action) and Chris Bosh (23.88 PER) working with Jose Calderon (20.51 PER) at the point would make the Raptors a solid value pick at 25-1 to win the title. Indiana, meanwhile, would finally get a point guard it can trust in Ford (20.37 PER). The question for Ford, as it is with O’Neal, is health. But the opportunity to get anyone but Jamaal Tinsley (12.75 PER) on the floor is too good for the Pacers to pass up.

ESPN will broadcast the 2008 NBA Draft from Madison Square Garden in New York starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

There was once a time in the NBA Playoffs when gamblers could make a mint by simply betting on a team that lost its previous game straight up to cover the spread next game.

However, this so-called Zigzag Theory gained so much steam among bettors that the oddsmakers caught on quickly, and the value in this simple angle is now gone. In fact, it has now become the norm that if a team loses, the betting line is shaded toward them instead of against them in the next game. As a result, the Zigzag Theory has slipped to just 558-496, 52.9 percent against the spread since 1990, omitting pushes. This angle has done just slightly better in the NBA Finals, going 41-35, 53.9 percent ATS, so do not for a minute think that either the Boston Celtics or the Los Angeles Lakers are not capable of putting together a winning streak when they renew their rivalry in this year’s finals.

However, just because the Zigzag is no longer a profitable venture, this does not mean that there aren’t any other contrarian angles that have not lost their luster. We will now look at two situations that continue to churn out a steady profit.

Playing On Teams off of Big Losses

Now obviously, playoff teams are the better clubs in the NBA, and as such, they are more capable of bouncing back from poor performances. No team likes to get blown out, especially in the post-season, so these clubs are generally nice bets the next game, as they almost always put forth a much better effort.

Thus, all playoff teams coming off of any double-digit straight up loss are 287-225, 56.1 percent ATS since 1990! This angle went 3-1 ATS in this year’s Conference Finals alone, as the San Antonio Spurs covered Game 3 after losing Game 2 by 30 points, the Lakers covered Game 4 after losing Game 3 by 19 and the Detroit Pistons covered Game 4 after losing Game 3 by 14 points. The only loser with this angle in the last couple of weeks was when the Celtics failed to cover in Game 5 after losing Game 4 by 19, although Boston did win straight up 106-102.

Now what is interesting about this angle is that it works better for home teams in the first two rounds and it works better for road teams in the last two rounds. All home teams in the First Round and the Conference Semifinals coming off of a SU loss by 10 points or more are 125-84, 59.8 percent ATS. This angle was an incredible 11-5 ATS this season. Meanwhile, road teams in the Conference Finals and the NBA Finals coming off of a double-digit SU loss are 32-21, 60.4 percent ATS. This is the angle to keep an eye on in the next couple of weeks.

Incidentally, all teams in all rounds off of a loss of 15 points or more are 152-112, 57.6 percent ATS, teams that lost by 20 points or more are 91-53, 63.2 percent ATS, and teams that lost by at least 25 points are at 44-22, 66.7 percent! Apparently, there is a direct correlation between the degree of embarrassment in the previous game and the level of improvement in the next game, so this is something else to check out in the finals, where either team is capable of blowing out the other on any given night.

Playing On Teams off Poor Offensive Games

This is a popular angle among professional bettors during the regular season, but it works just as well if not better in the playoffs. The logic is exactly the same as the teams coming off of big losses, in that the team that underperformed offensively will be eager to show a marked improvement in its next contest.

Therefore, all playoff teams coming off of a game scoring 75 points or less in the same series are 62-43, 59.0 percent ATS since 1990. Note that this angle only applies in the same series and does not apply for Game 1 of a new series if a team scored 75 points or less while winning the deciding game of the previous series. Now teams have not been held under 75 points that often in the NBA Finals, but when it has happened, this angle is 6-3, 66.7 percent.

Finally, this angle works best for home teams in every round, as home clubs that scored 75 points or less in the last game of the same series are a whopping 31-12, 72.1 percent ATS in all rounds including a perfect 2-0 ATS in the NBA Finals.

What the deuce?!

The Boston Celtics are 4-point favorites in Tuesday’s NBA Finals matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers. To be honest, my initial reaction when I saw this line go up in the aftermath of Sunday’s Game 5 was utter befuddlement.

Home-court advantage has been the No. 1 storyline of the entire playoffs, and the Celtics are 12-1 (8-5 against the spread) at the Garden. They’re also 5-0 ATS against the Lakers in this series, making the Western Conference champions look like chumps in the process.

According to one prominent sportsbook, 82 percent of bettors were on the Celtics at press time. But the money was split nearly down the middle, with Boston drawing 52 percent of the action. The bigger money (especially this early in the betting process) tends to come from the sharper handicappers. Perhaps they believe the NBA might exert its influence to extend this series to a seventh and very lucrative deciding game on Thursday.

There are other, less insidious reasons the Lakers could beat the spread Tuesday. This is still a very high-quality team that went into the Finals as -150 favorites. Los Angeles is healthy, while Boston is not. Kendrick Perkins (shoulder) is a game-time decision, Rajon Rondo (ankle) has been ineffective in limited minutes, and Ray Allen had to leave Staples Center immediately after Game 5 to deal with a family medical emergency. Fortunately, all appears to be well on the Allen front and he is expected to play in Game 6.

Complicating matter for the Celtics, their plane out of Los Angeles sat on the tarmac for over five hours on Monday with mechanical problems. A 757 was flown into LAX to take Boston players, staff and family home – avoiding the “sleepover” that the San Antonio Spurs had to endure in the Western Conference Finals when their charter plane had similar issues. More fodder for the growing contingent of conspiracy theorists.

The injuries to Perkins and Rondo played a significant role in the outcome of Game 5. Coach Phil Jackson took advantage by playing Jordan Farmar the entire fourth quarter; he was able to slice through the lesser defense of Eddie House and Sam Cassell, then drive the lane for a pair of lay-ups as the Lakers built a 14-point lead. With Rondo both hurt and neutralized by Kobe Bryant’s defense, Jackson may have found the right combination to pick Boston’s lock.

At least someone is producing off the bench. Jackson strongly suggested the Chris Mihm experiment wouldn’t be revisited after Boston went on a 10-2 run against the Lakers reserves to start the second quarter of Game 5.

"We tried some different faces out there to see what we could do," Jackson told reporters, "but we’re not going to stay with that."

The absence of Perkins allows Jackson the luxury of going small against Boston’s smaller lineup. Farmar played well in a backcourt combination with Derek Fisher, moving Bryant to small forward and avoiding the general lack of contribution (that is, at an NBA Finals-level) from the three-headed monster of Vladimir Radmanovic, Luke Walton and Trevor Ariza. Those three are all very useful as role players; Farmar is a more complete talent who improved substantially in his sophomore campaign, from 10.79 to an above-average 15.42 in Player Efficiency Rating.

This is all well and good for Lakers supporters, even more so with the betting odds at many sportsbooks moving to Boston -4½ on Monday night. But based on the results of the first five games of this series, Bryant admitted the Lakers have to play better to extend this series to a Game 7.

Tip-off is at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

Kelly green is the new color of money.

The Boston Celtics have beaten the Los Angeles Lakers against the spread in each of the five games during this year’s NBA Finals. The Lakers ensured there would be a Game 6 in this series with a 103-98 victory, but it was Boston defying the betting odds as a 7½-point road dog.

That’s not the only pattern emerging from the Finals. Just like Game 4, Sunday’s matchup saw the Lakers build up a massive first-quarter lead (17 points this time) only to fritter it away. Then Los Angeles went ahead by 14 points in the fourth quarter. On cue, the Celtics tore off a 16-2 run to tie the game with less than five minutes remaining. But they never did take the lead down the stretch.

There’s very little motivation for handicappers to switch allegiances at this point. Boston got paid Sunday even with Kendrick Perkins (shoulder) missing the game and Rajon Rondo (ankle) playing all of 15 minutes. That’s testament to both the strength of the Celtics bench and their Big Three. Paul Pierce had 38 points in Game 5, Kevin Garnett had another double-double, and Ray Allen was 3-for-8 from downtown. Textbook offense for the C’s.

At the other end, Kobe Bryant had 15 points in the first quarter but only 10 the rest of the way, finishing the night 8-for-21 from the field. Bryant attempted seven free throws compared to 19 for Pierce. However, the league MVP did connect on four of nine 3-pointers, and his five steals included the decisive picking of Pierce’s pocket with 40 seconds remaining.

Boston supporters will be even more encouraged to bet on the home side after the Celtics opened as rather small 4-point favorites for Tuesday’s Game 6. That’s up marginally from the three points the C’s laid during the series opener at the Garden. The total edges upward to 193½ after Sunday’s matchup went over 192; the Under is still ahead at 3-2 in the series.

Los Angeles has taken a serious beating in the press since coughing up a 24-point lead in Game 4. That drumbeat of criticism didn’t stop in Game 5; it only grew louder when Chris Mihm made his postseason debut. The oft-injured center played his first three minutes of the postseason, picked up two quick fouls, and went back to the bench.

If there is a case to be made for supporting the Lakers (and there’s always a case for both teams), it’s based almost entirely on the value generated by this misguided criticism. Mihm was on the floor with the Lakers reserves at the start of the second quarter with Bryant taking his customary rest. The Celtics outscored Los Angeles 10-2 during those three minutes; Pierce had eight of those points as he played virtually the entire game. That extra workload may add to Pierce’s legacy, but it will also take away from what he can offer Tuesday night.

Meanwhile, as much as Bryant’s image in the media has improved (enough to win the MVP for the first time), now he’s questioned for not being a finisher like Michael Jordan was when the Bulls were winning six NBA titles. This is a giant red herring. Bryant’s Lakers and Jordan’s Bulls are simply not the same collection of players; more importantly, none of the teams the Bulls beat in the Finals was nearly as good as these Celtics.

The tenor of the media coverage between now and Tuesday night will play a significant role in the betting patterns for Game 6. Continued Laker bashing will only enhance their value. But like many things in Los Angeles, the Lakers could use a lot of enhancement.

Game time is 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

Inconceivable!

In case you missed it, the Boston Celtics made basketball history Thursday night. They were down by 24 points to the Los Angeles Lakers, playing at the Staples Center in front of a partisan crowd. The Celtics got all of that back and more in the second half to salt away a 97-91 victory as 7½-point puppies.

Boston has a 3-1 chokehold on the NBA Finals, and Boston supporters have grabbed the green in all four games against the Lakers – all six, including the regular season.

This was the biggest single-game turnaround in the Finals since 1971 and the first time a team has ever come back from 15 points down in the first quarter. It was a brilliant quarter for the Lakers. Lamar Odom was 6-for-6, Trevor Ariza was flying at both ends of the court, and Kobe Bryant had four assists despite being held scoreless.

Meanwhile, nothing was working right for Boston. Rajon Rondo was ineffective coming off an ankle sprain in Game 3; Bryant played help defense off Rondo as he did on Tuesday, interrupting the flow of the Celtics’ offense and daring Rondo to shoot. Rondo finished the night with five points and two assists in just 17 minutes of play.

Things looked even gloomier for the C’s when Kendrick Perkins left the floor in the third quarter with a shoulder injury. He did not return. But the removal of both Rondo and Perkins from the game proved to be the tipping point for the Celtics. Reserves Eddie House and James Posey combined for 29 points, including 6-for-12 from behind the arc. House finished the day plus-20 to lead both teams in Game 4.

Whatever defensive plan the Lakers had for the Rondoless Celtics, it didn’t work on this occasion. But Boston had an answer for Bryant at the other end. Paul Pierce took over the defensive assignment from Ray Allen, limiting Bryant to 6-for-19 from the field and 5-for-6 from the free-throw line. The league MVP wore down as the game went on – having to play the entire second half on top of 45 minutes in Game 3 did Bryant no favors.

Coach Doc Rivers is getting some redemption after Thursday’s stirring comeback. It might be more than Rivers merits, since it was the injuries to Rondo and Perkins that led to House and Posey playing 25 minutes apiece. The Lakers also ran out of gas as a team. They successfully pushed the tempo in the first half, only to become statues in the second half while the older Celtics mounted their comeback.

However, Rivers does deserve credit for keeping his players in the game and mixing up his defense – even showing a 3-2 zone for the first time in the series. The Lakers shot 6-for-21 from the perimeter, and Sasha Vujacic scored a measly three points after dropping 20 on Tuesday night. Rivers has been a punching bag for sports media in Boston and across the continent. On this day, he out-coached Phil Jackson.

The Lakers will have a couple of days to recuperate and plan for Game 5 on Sunday night. Boston will also welcome that extended layoff. Rondo and Perkins are more than just banged up, and Pierce almost had another “wheelchair” moment in Game 4 when he tumbled to the floor clutching his ankle. But he got right back up, grimaced, and continued to play. One more gritty performance like that, and Pierce will be handed the Finals MVP on Sunday.

Game time is 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC. The Lakers opened as 6-point favorites on the NBA betting odds with a total of 190.

Tuesday was not a good day for NBA basketball.

Fans at the Staples Center in Los Angeles were buzzing about the Tim Donaghy scandal before Game 3 of the NBA Finals between the Lakers and the Boston Celtics. Then they were treated to a rather shoddy performance from both clubs.

Paul Pierce shot 2-for-14, Kevin Garnett wasn’t much better at 6-for-21, and everyone in the Los Angeles starting rotation other than Kobe Bryant went 7-for-28 combined. L.A. came out on top 87-81, skimming 27½ points under the posted total of 195½.

Only some of that awful shooting can be credited to defense. However, that portion of the credit should go to Lakers coach Phil Jackson and his staff. They made what could prove to be the defensive switch of the series, putting Bryant on Boston point guard Rajon Rondo and choking some of the life out of the Celtic attack. Rondo is an excellent passer, rebounder and defender, but his shooting remains his weakness. His assist total dropped from 16 in Game 2 to just four playing against the league MVP.

Rondo also suffered the fourth Boston injury of the series. He played 22 minutes in Game 3 after spraining his ankle and developing a bone bruise. In relief, Eddie House saw 20 minutes and hit a pair of threes, while Sam Cassell (wrist) played only seven minutes. Pierce (knee) and Garnett had eight assists between them, but couldn’t get the shots they were looking for thanks in part to Bryant’s work on Rondo. Kendrick Perkins (ankle), who doesn’t need the ball, was a very effective plus-6 on Tuesday – the only Celtics starter to finish in positive territory.

This basketball war of attrition bodes well for Los Angeles in Game 4. The longer this series goes, the more tired Boston should become relative to the younger Lakers; the C’s played 20 out of the maximum 21 games over the first three playoff series, while the Lakers took care of business in 15 games. Los Angeles also has the luxury of bringing in Trevor Ariza fresh after a long injury layoff; he was 2-for-3 in nine minutes as part of Jackson’s three-headed small forward solution with Vladimir Radmanovic and Luke Walton.

Jackson has taken heat from stats-minded hoops fans for leaving Radmanovic in the starting lineup. But it’s not which five players are on the floor at the start of the game that matters. Radmanovic is there to provide a burst of offense, usually in the first half. He sat out nearly the entire second half as the Lakers went smaller with Sasha Vujacic. That move paid off as Vujacic scored 20 points and played his usual firebrand defense. Boston’s entire bench scored 21 points.

Because the outcome of Tuesday’s matchup at the Staples Center was hanging in the balance down to the last minute, the betting odds have dropped the Lakers to 7½-point faves, down from 9½ points in Game 3. The score probably wouldn’t have been that close if the Lakers hadn’t shot 21-for-34 (61.8 percent) from the charity stripe. Bryant himself was 11-for-18 on a night when he was finally both willing and able to drive the lane. The C’s will make adjustments for Game 4, but they can’t defend free throws.

Boston was a -150 series favorite after winning the first two games at home. Now that the Lakers have avoided the dreaded 0-3 deficit, the series price has moved to even money. That’s a lot of confidence to put in the Western Conference champions. They’re still down 2-1 with two games in Los Angeles and two more (if necessary) in Boston.

Then again, the 2-3-2 format gives L.A. an opportunity to take a series lead back to the East Coast. You can be forgiven for thinking the NBA has every interest in extending the Finals as long as possible.

Game 4 is a 9:00 p.m. Eastern start on ABC.

The Black Mamba is on the other foot now.

The Boston Celtics have won the first two games of their best-of-seven NBA Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers. Paul Pierce is the story of the series thus far; he’s scored 50 points, nailing seven of his eight shots from downtown. Kobe Bryant has 54 points, but he missed five of his six 3-point attempts as Boston’s NBA-best defense limited the damage.

Los Angeles nearly snuck out of the Garden with a split, coming back from 23 points down with 7:22 remaining to close within two before the C’s put the game away on free throws. This time, the Lakers dug themselves a hole that even they couldn’t crawl back out of.

The deep Celtics bench prevailed again in Game 2; Leon Powe abused the L.A. frontline for 21 points, including 9-of-13 from the foul line as the Lakers were whistled time and time again. Boston would finish the night with 38 free-throw attempts to 10 (two of them in the first half) for Los Angeles.

Small forward was a sticking point for the Lakers in Boston. Vladimir Radmanovich is 4-for-11 from long range, but is also playing poor defense. Trevor Ariza played seven minutes of support in Game 2, but missed his only field-goal attempt. And Luke Walton was simply bad at both ends of the court; when the Lakers are taken out of their triangle offense, Walton’s value is minimized. Otherwise, the Lakers bench performed well in both games at the Garden. Boston’s was just that much better.

The betting line for Game 2 saw the Celtics swing from 1.5-point faves at the open to 2-point underdogs. Concern over the health of both Pierce’s knee and Kendrick Perkins’ ankle – both injured in Game 1 – spread over the newswires the day before the contest. Pierce admitted he was sore, and he did not display the same leaping ability on Sunday that he did before he was carried to a wheelchair in the opener. Perkins, coming off a high-ankle sprain, played just 14 minutes with foul trouble to give Powe the opportunity to shine.

Boston’s list of walking wounded got bigger on Sunday when backup point guard Sam Cassell sprained his wrist after just six minutes of floor time. Although Cassell has been given a rough time in the media for his poor performances earlier in the playoffs, the Celtics are plus-12 in this series with the two-time champion at the point. Cassell was listed at press time as day-to-day.

Now the scene shifts to Game 3 on Tuesday night at the Staples Center. The Lakers are getting the benefit of the doubt that comes with playing at home; they opened as 9-point favorites with a total of 194½, up three points from the totals in Boston. The Celtics are 2-7 ATS in their last nine on the road; Los Angeles is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 at home.

There is some merit to the belief that the referees will give the Lakers a little more leeway at Staples. However, while many of the fouls called against Los Angeles on Sunday were questionable, Los Angeles also didn’t venture into the paint very often in the second and third quarters. Bryant settled for outside jumpers and appeared out of energy later in the evening.

Both games in Boston were 9:00 p.m. Eastern starts, as are all the games in this series.