NCAA Basketball Betting Articles

They’ve created a monster.

College basketball was dominated by freshmen last year. Players who normally would have been drafted by the NBA straight out of high school were denied that opportunity by the league’s new eligibility rules.

Now that they’ve served their time, the “one and done” contingent includes the consensus top two picks, point guard Derrick Rose of the Memphis Tigers and forward Michael Beasley of the Kansas State Wildcats. You’ll also find names like O.J. Mayo, Jerryd Bayless, Kevin Love and Eric Gordon projected to go in the Top 10.

Rose was one Mario Chalmers 3-pointer away from winning a national championship in his lone college season. Who are this year’s impact freshmen?

Brandon Jennings, Arizona
The Wildcats are in even better position to rebound from last year’s soap opera now that Chase Budinger has pulled out of the NBA Draft. Jennings will take over at point guard from Bayless; he’s the top player in the Class of 2008 according to Scouts Inc., and was easily the best player at the Pangos All-American Camp. The question will be whether Lute Olson can get him to play with discipline.

Tyreke Evans, Memphis
The Tigers don’t have much room for improvement, but Evans is arguably the best of the potential one-and-done crew. He’s a 6-foot-5 shooting guard with speed and strength, but like Jennings, his heart is in question. Evans was the MVP of the 2008 McDonald's All-American game with 21 points, 10 rebounds and four assists in just under 24 minutes on the floor.

B.J. Mullens, Ohio State
Mullens has the height to succeed at the NBA level as a 7-foot center, and he also has soft hands and a nice mid-range jump shot. The comparisons to Greg Oden are easy, but Oden is a more determined player. Mullens will take over for Kosta Koufos on a young team that finished No. 29 in efficiency despite the early departures of Oden and Mike Conley. The betting odds have the Buckeyes at 22-1 to win the championship this year.

Samardo Samuels, Louisville
The 6-foot-8 center isn’t in the same class as Jennings and Evans, but he’s a dominant player with his back to the basket and has worked very hard on his conditioning. He’s the No. 2-ranked freshman by Scouts Inc. and the USA Today high school player of the year. Samuels will have every opportunity to play with David Padgett graduating and Derrick Caracter transferring. The Cards will be a strong Final Four candidate this season, which should propel Samuels into lottery position at the draft.

Demar DeRozan, USC
The Paul Pierce comparisons will get even more ink in the wake of the NBA Finals. But Vince Carter might be the more accurate model. DeRozan is the top-rated small forward according to Scouts Inc., with an impressive arsenal of dunks and a beautiful 3-point shot to go along with questionable defense and rebounding. DeRozan’s learning curve has been impressive, though, and there are certainly worse players out there than Carter.

Jrue Holiday, UCLA
The Bruins keep knocking on the championship door, but it’s eluded them despite three straight trips to the Final Four. Holiday is the best prospect in a strong recruiting class that could put UCLA over the top. He’s ranked behind only Evans among shooting guards and has everything you could ask for in a player – except height. At 6-foot-3, Holiday will probably have to play the point in the NBA, which might be enough to convince the North Hollywood native to spend another year developing his skills.

It’s amazing how smart a single field goal can make a basketball coach look.

Kansas Jayhawks coach Bill Self has been feeling the heat for the past five years since he took over the program from Roy Williams. Kansas racked up plenty of Big 12 titles under Self’s guidance, but zero national championships. Until Monday, when Mario Chalmers hit a 3-pointer with 2.1 seconds remaining to force overtime against the Memphis Tigers.

The Jayhawks won 75-68 as 2-point underdogs, removing the monkey from Self’s back and putting an end to the strong Tournament run of the Tigers. Both teams were outstanding defensively; the final score slid under the posted total of 146 even with the extra frame. It was anyone’s game to win. But Memphis lost the game at the free-throw line by whiffing on four of the last five attempts in regulation. The Tigers end the season at 61.4 percent from the line, No. 329 out of the 341 Division I clubs.

It was a dramatic end to a season where chalk was king. Handicappers playing the away favorites squeezed a small profit at 439-382-18 against the spread (53.47 percent), the only profit to be found playing the home/away and dog/fave splits. Kansas had no problems getting paid this year at 23-15 ATS. Neither did the remaining Final Four teams, the UCLA Bruins (21-15-2 ATS) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (24-12 ATS). Only Memphis (18-20-2 ATS) failed to make a dime among the four No. 1 seeds at the Tournament.

These were also the top four teams in the preseason polls. As expected, they rolled over their opponents and swarmed into the Final Four, making the 2008 Tournament the first to advance all four No. 1 seeds to the semifinals. There were challenges from the Louisville Cardinals (20-13-1 ATS), the Texas Longhorns (17-14-1 ATS) and the Cinderella Davidson Wildcats (23-11 ATS), but there would be no denying the Big Four.

Even the statheads agree. Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings, the gold standard for statistical analysis, have the same four teams at the top of the list. Kansas ended the season with the highest efficiency rating, including the best defense and the No. 2 offense. Memphis was second, followed by UCLA and North Carolina.

Sadly, all good things must come to an end. Memphis (Derrick Rose) and UCLA (Kevin Love) were two of the teams who benefited from having superior freshmen on board – players who may have entered the NBA Draft straight out of high school in previous years.

Michael Beasley of the Kansas State Wildcats is expected to be at the top of most draft lists after earning Big 12 Player of the Year honors with 26.2 points and 12.4 rebounds per game. Other impact frosh of note: USC’s O.J. Mayo, Indiana’s Eric Gordon and Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin.

It’ll take a formidable recruiting class to replace some of the other outgoing talent from the Final Four representatives – perhaps none more difficult to replace than Tyler Hansbrough, the junior forward from North Carolina and expected Wooden Award winner. He may not prove to be a great NBA player at a generous 6-foot-9, but Hansbrough was the focal point of a Heels team that finished third in the ATS standings. Only New Mexico (23-8-1 ATS) and Drake (20-8-1 ATS) performed better.

For a team as public as North Carolina (or Kansas, or UCLA) to keep pounding the pay window, you know they’re something special. Here’s hoping for even more profitable basketball from them next year.

Could America’s addiction to junk food cost the Memphis Tigers the national men’s college basketball championship?

Memphis point guard Derrick Rose missed Sunday’s media sessions after complaining of stomach problems. You’d have problems, too, if you put the same things in your stomach.

“He eats Gummy Bears and Starburst for breakfast, and Twizzlers and Honey Buns for dinner,” guard Chris Douglas-Roberts told the Associated Press. “That's why his stomach hurts.”

The Tigers were quick to allay any fears about Rose missing Monday’s title game against the Kansas Jayhawks. You have to wonder, though, how much better Rose would be if he took a more professional approach to his diet – something more well-rounded, like a giant bag of Doritos and a half-gallon of chocolate milk. Hey, I was 19 once.

The gastronomy of youth aside, athletes who give a dedicated effort are more reliable to their teammates – and to handicappers. Memphis has elevated its game over the past three rounds, covering against three increasingly tough opponents in Michigan State (+5½), Texas (+3½) and UCLA (+2½). Before that, however, Memphis was 15-19-2 against the spread and 4-12 ATS in their previous 16 games.

The North Carolina Tar Heels presented handicappers with a similar puzzle going into their Final Four matchup against Kansas. North Carolina’s consistency on defense was a question mark going into the Tournament. But the Heels answered with renewed purpose and a perfect 4-0 ATS record – before falling apart in the first half of their semifinal. Kansas was up 40-12 before UNC finally kicked it into gear and closed to within five. That’s as close as the Tar Heels would get.

Now the same Kansas Jayhawks, who have been nothing but steady all season at 36-3 straight up and a recession-busting 22-15 ATS, are preparing to meet a Memphis team that was favored by as many as two points at press time. The Tigers opened as a pick ‘em; the total is also drifting upward at many books, with 145.5 points the consensus.

Not to take anything away from the brilliant performance the Tigers gave while thumping UCLA 78-63 in the other semifinal. But Memphis was unusually good from the line on Saturday, going 20-for-23 (87 percent) to move all the way up to No. 329 in Division I at 61.3 percent on the season. This was after sinking 30 of 36 free throws (83.3 percent) against Texas. Like any other game, if the shots are falling, your team is winning.

The Tigers can’t afford to revert back to their old free-throw form against the Jayhawks. They are the most efficient team in the league, 4-1 ATS in this Tournament with a deep and balanced lineup. That depth will come in very handy if Kansas needs to start hacking Memphis players – especially Joey Dorsey, who is Mr. Magoo from the charity stripe at 37.8 percent.

Dorsey personifies how things need to go right for the Tigers to get the upper hand Monday. Although he was held scoreless against the Bruins, Dorsey’s 15 rebounds (six on offense) and two blocks were significant contributions for Memphis. He has the talent – coach John Calipari believes he can be a 20-10 threat – but as a self-described former “very hyperactive” child who escaped the streets of Baltimore, Dorsey needs a lot of direction from his coach. When Calipari lays it on too thick, Dorsey tenses and loses confidence. Then he gets angry at himself. You won’t like him when he gets angry.

The game tips from the Alamodome in San Antonio is scheduled for 9:15 p.m. Eastern Time. CBS has the broadcast rights.

Memphis vs. UCLA (+2, 135)
Saturday, 6:05 pm (ET), San Antonio
Tigers supporters got some bad news Wednesday when backup point guard Andre Allen’s suspension was announced. Allen did not make the flight from Memphis; he is out for the remainder of the Tournament, reportedly for failing a drug test. The senior isn’t an integral part of the Tigers offense – Derrick Rose is the starting point guard – but someone has to replace the 14.1 minutes of solid defense Allen provided every game.

The Tigers are already the wild card in this Final Four, coming out of the milquetoast Conference USA. As always, coach John Calipari made sure to load up on strong opponents during the non-conference portion of the schedule, and Memphis beat them all. The 85-71 win over Georgetown sent the Tigers into the holidays on a high, but all those C-USA creampuffs may have been a little much. Memphis is 7-13 against the spread the past two months and the only unprofitable team in the Final Four at 17-19-2 ATS.

And yet the Tigers are favored over UCLA. Memphis got some of its mojo back over the past two rounds, thumping Michigan State and Texas, while the Bruins were nearly eliminated by Texas A&M in the Round of 32. Still, this is UCLA. Ben Howland has brought the team to its third consecutive Final Four, and this time, he has center Kevin Love with him. He’s the primary reason the Bruins are 21-14-2 ATS, and he’s one of the few players Memphis big man Joey Dorsey isn’t equipped to handle.

Kansas vs. North Carolina (-3, 159½)
Saturday, 8:45 pm (ET), San Antonio
This is a classic matchup of offense against defense – but perhaps not in the way the betting public expects. It’s the Jayhawks bringing the D in this case; they’ve allowed just 57 points per game in the Tournament, driving all four games under the posted total. The rugged Tar Heels, meanwhile, are scoring at will. They’re 4-0 ATS at the big dance, topping the 100-point mark in the first two rounds and sending the over to a 3-1 record.

This is actually consistent with the way the rest of the season played out. Kansas is the top team in terms of efficiency, balanced very nicely with the No. 2 offense and the No. 3 defense in Division I. Only North Carolina has been more productive at getting the ball in the basket. As for their No. 19 defense, the Heels have been much more diligent at that end of the floor during the postseason.

Those efficiency stats don’t reflect the fact that UNC was playing without point guard Ty Lawson for six games, including the loss against Duke which was avenged during the regular season finale with Lawson back in the lineup. The numbers also don’t capture the growth of Deon Thompson into a useful frontline complement to Tyler Hansbrough. It will be up to the underappreciated Kansas defense to slow this juggernaut down enough to give the deadly Jayhawks guards a chance to win the game – or at least cover, for our purposes.

It’s only been a 64-team tournament (OK, 65-team) since 1985. But as you no doubt already know, this is the first time March Madness has produced a Final Four with all four No. 1 seeds involved.

The North Carolina Tar Heels (36-2 straight up, 24-11 against the spread) have obliterated everything in their path to San Antonio. They’ve taken their game to a higher level, beating each of their four Tournament opponents by double digits – including Washington State (+8) and Louisville (+5½), two of the Top 10 teams on the Pomeroy efficiency charts. That makes North Carolina the only Final Four club to bag the cash in every single round thus far. Tyler Hansbrough’s performance against the Cardinals says it all: 28 points and 13 rebounds, including seven on the offensive glass. North Carolina is the deserving favorite on the futures market at 8-5. The remaining three semifinalists are priced at 12-5 apiece.

Containing Hansbrough should be Job No. 1 for the Kansas Jayhawks (35-3 SU, 21-15 ATS) this Saturday. And they might be the right team for the job. This is the best team in Division I in terms of efficiency. While the perimeter offense gets most of the attention, Kansas is also No. 4 in the country at defending 2-point shots, allowing just 40.9 percent of attempts inside the arc. Sixth-man Sasha Kaun will not shy away from putting himself between Hansbrough and the basket. Kaun even shot 6-for-6 to save the Jayhawks in the Elite Eight round against Davidson (+9½) in a 59-57 final. It was the first time this Tournament that Kansas failed to cover. The Jayhawks were 3½-point puppies against the Heels at press time.

If Kansas can’t slow Hansbrough down, the UCLA Bruins (35-3 SU, 21-14-2 ATS) have an even bigger interior presence in superfrosh Kevin Love. Love is the reason we are here today: Three double-doubles in the last three games, and seven blocks to help the Bruins stave off elimination against Texas A&M (+9½) in the second round. UCLA won 51-49, then failed to cover versus Western Kentucky (+12½) before dropping the hammer 76-57 on Xavier (+6) in the Elite Eight. Josh Shipp, however, shot 1-for-7 against the Musketeers to continue his late-season slump.

That might be just enough of an opening for the Memphis Tigers (37-1 SU, 17-19-2 ATS) to take advantage of. This is the only one of the foursome who failed to rack up a significant profit for handicappers this year – or any profit, for that matter. Their play since the fall semester has been one step below elite level, and Memphis was 1-4 ATS in postseason play before coming up extra large against Michigan State (+5½) and Texas (+3½). The winning margin for Memphis was 18 points in both cases. This is why the Tigers were supposed to be named the preseason No. 1 in the polls.

Memphis may have been overlooked in November, but supporters are coming out of the woodwork when it counts. The Tigers were 1-point favorites at press time, just hours after opening as 1-point underdogs. North Carolina, who did get the preseason No. 1 nod, is also picking up action. The opening line on the Strip was UNC -2½.

UCLA-Memphis is scheduled to tip off at 6:07 p.m. Eastern from the AT&T Center in San Antonio. Kansas-North Carolina starts at 8:47 p.m.

Sunday’s games are ripe with the potential of big paydays for college hoops bettors, as both Texas and Davidson have the horses to knock off Memphis and Kansas and get to San Antonio.

That’s easier said than done considering how both the Tigers and Jayhawks looked in the Sweet 16. Memphis rolled past Michigan State, while Kansas made quick work of Villanova on Friday night.

South Regional: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 1 Memphis, 2:20 PM ET

Get ready for a track meet when Texas (31-6, 17-13-1 ATS) and Memphis (36-1, 16-19-2 ATS) take the floor in the South Regional final on Sunday afternoon. Both of these teams have athletes galore, and expect both John Calipari and Rick Barnes to let the talent take over with both schools vying for San Antonio.

Memphis pounded No. 5 Michigan State on Friday night, winning 92-74 as 5 ½-point favorites after leading 50-20 at halftime. If you’re able to score 92 points against a team coached by Tom Izzo in the Big Dance, then you’re one hell of a basketball team. The Spartans had no answer for either Derrick Rose or Chris Douglas-Roberts, who combined for 52 points in the drubbing.

Six-foot-six swingman Antonio Anderson locked up Michigan State’s Drew Neitzel, holding the senior guard to six points on 2-of-8 shooting. Expect Anderson to draw the assignment of trying to contain All-American point guard D.J. Augustin, who went for 23 points, seven assists, and five rebounds in Texas’ 82-62 payday over No. 3 Stanford as 1-point faves.

The Texas team we’ve been waiting to see showed up against the Cardinal, outgunning Stanford while shutting down anyone not named Brook Lopez. Texas will need a similar performance if they’re to have any chance of covering against Memphis, which has the advantage on the interior with Joey Dorsey and Robert Dozier.

Texas needs a big game from Connor Atchley, who is the only player resembling a center in the Longhorns’ rotation. If he can hold down the fort against the athletic Dozier and the inconsistent Dorsey, Texas could be on their way to the Final Four. If Atchley gets into foul trouble, then it’s going to be a long night for Barnes and the run-and-gun Longhorns.

Midwest Regional: No. 10 Davidson vs. No. 1 Kansas, 5:05 PM ET

Two of the most consistent plays in college basketball will meet in the most difficult game to handicap in the Tournament thus far, when Davidson (29-6, 22-11 ATS) meets Kansas (34-3, 21-14 ATS) in the Elite 8 finale.

Common sense says you should go with Kansas in this one. The Jayhawks have more overall talent, offensive balance, depth, and experience than the Wildcats. Kansas also has a bevy of perimeter defenders it can throw at Stephen Curry, who is averaging 34.3 points per game in the Dance for Davidson.

This was also true of No. 7 Gonzaga, No. 2 Georgetown, and No. 3 Wisconsin – which all went down in a blaze of glory at the hands of Curry’s outside shooting. Considering Davidson was getting 4 ½ points against the Hoyas and 5 points against the Badgers, you have to think oddsmakers will have the Wildcats as at least 6-point underdogs against the Jayhawks. If that’s the case, it’s hard to bet against Davidson, which should keep it close if not win the game outright.

The Wildcats looked so good in the second half against Wisconsin that you forgot that they’re Cinderella and the Badgers won the Big Ten. Davidson is undefeated ATS in the Tourney and 7-3 against the number over its last ten games, and has proven that it can score against the best defenses in the nation.

Kansas has had an easy ride in the Tourney, even for a No. 1 seed. The Jayhawks handled No. 12 Villanova with relative ease on Friday night, cashing going away in a 72-57 triumph as 12-point favorites. Brandon Rush paced a balanced attack with 16 points as Russell Robinson and Mario Chalmers also scored in double figures for the Jayhawks, 7-3 ATS over their last ten outings.

Pay close attention to oddsmakers before laying down cash on this game. Watch out for a ton of public action on Davidson, which could force sportsbooks to move the line in the Wildcats’ favor. If that happens, Kansas could become a strong play for sharp bettors – especially if the Jayhawks can be had in the vicinity of –6 or –7.

Thursday night’s Sweet 16 results sets up bettors for two great matchups on Saturday. No. 1 North Carolina will avoid No. 2 Tennessee in the East Regional final in Charlotte, but they’ll still be in tough against an impressive Louisville team that’s playing its best basketball of the season.

No.1 UCLA is looking to get to San Antonio while riding the Kevin Love train, but the Bruins will need more than his heroics if they’re going to get by No. 3 Xavier.

West Regional: No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 1 UCLA, 6:40 PM ET

For a team that’s gone to the Final Four two years in a row, UCLA (34-3, 20-14-2 ATS) sure has a lot to prove to bettors heading into its matchup against Xavier (30-6, 16-16 ATS).

The Bruins handled No. 12 Western Kentucky 88-78 on Thursday night, but failed to cover as 12 ½-point favorites. UCLA is a disappointing 1-2 ATS in the Tourney after being very profitable for a public team during the regular season, with its only payday coming in its Tourney opener against No. 16 Mississippi Valley State.

UCLA will need its ‘A’ game against Xavier, something it hasn’t been getting from All-Pac-10 point guard Darren Collison. Collison had only four points and one assist in 28 minutes against the Hilltoppers, fouling out in the second half. Fortunately for Bruins backers, swingman Josh Shipp picked up his game on Thursday, going for 14 points on 5-of-9 from the floor.

The veteran Musketeers head into the contest undefeated against the number in the Tourney after Thursday night’s 79-75 overtime triumph over No. 7 West Virginia as 1 ½-point underdogs. UCLA presents the first big test of the Dance for Sean Miller’s team, which cashed against No. 14 Georgia and No. 6 Purdue last weekend.

The key for Xavier will be the play of center Josh Duncan, who is expected to match up against freshman sensation Kevin Love. If Duncan rolls for a career-high 26 points like he did against Joe Alexander and the Mountaineers, you have to think that Xavier has an excellent chance of pulling off the upset against the Pac-10 champions.

That will be no easy task for Duncan, who hasn’t faced a player like Love all season. The 6-foot-10 Love imposed his will against Western Kentucky, dropping 29 points and grabbing 14 boards against an overmatched Hilltoppers’ interior.

East Regional: No. 3 Louisville vs. No. 1 North Carolina, 9:05 PM ET

Two of the best bets and best teams in the nation will meet in the East Regional final on Saturday night – and Tennessee isn’t playing.

After watching Louisville (27-8, 20-12-1 ATS) dismantle the No. 2 Volunteers on Thursday, my opening statement still rings true. The Cardinals rolled past Tennessee 79-60 as 2-point favorites, as five Louisville players scored in double figures in the payday. Earl Clark was especially impressive for Rick Pitino, adding 17 points and 12 rebounds off the bench.

The Cards have everything going for them: Efficient, balanced scoring, a great leader in David Padgett, an excellent head coach, and the reality that they’re peaking at the right time. Louisville, 3-0 ATS in the Tournament after Thursday’s victory, will give North Carolina (35-2, 23-11 ATS) everything it can handle and then some on Saturday.

UNC rolls into this matchup much like Louisville, only that everyone expected this type of play from the Tar Heels. North Carolina demonstrated in its win over No. 4 Washington State that it is capable of playing a variety of styles successfully. Wazzu played their game against UNC, slowing the pace and drawing out every possession, but the Tar Heels covered easily, 68-47 as 8-point favorites.

The win comes after North Carolina slammed No. 9 Arkansas in a track meet last Sunday, 108-77 while giving 9 ½-points to the Razorbacks. The thought on the Tar Heels earlier in the season was that if you could slow them down and make the game about defense, then they could be had. It looks like UNC has shored up its play on the defensive end, which has surely contributed to its perfect mark against the number in the Tourney.

Bettors should focus on the Tyler Hansbrough-David Padgett matchup. Despite 18 points and nine rebounds against the Cougars, Hansbrough had trouble against Washington State center Aron Baynes, shooting 6-of-15 from the field. Remember that Hansbrough will have to account for Padgett on the defensive end as well, meaning he’ll have to expend a lot of energy against the Cardinals.

They say nobody remembers who came in second. That’s certainly not true of college basketball. Even making the Sweet 16 of the Tournament is a badge of honor that teams like Davidson and Villanova will wear with pride – unless they make it even further. According to these odds, though, their Elite Eight chances are slim.

Midwest Region
Ford Field, Detroit

No. 12 Villanova vs. No. 1 Kansas (-12)
7:10 p.m. Eastern

The Kansas Jayhawks (33-3 SU, 20-14 ATS) have gotten full value out of their No. 1 seed. It’s possible they could go all the way to the Final Four without playing anyone seeded higher than the No. 8 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels. Kansas is a double-digit chalk for the third time in three rounds; Portland State (+21) and UNLV (+13.5) both failed to put a dent in the Jayhawks.

Villanova (22-12 SU, 14-17 ATS) is considerably outmatched. The Hawks are the top team in Division I in terms of efficiency. The Wildcats are No. 45, four spots up from UNLV on the list. They barely made it into the Tournament at all. But there is enough natural talent on this young roster to upset just about anyone – provided the treys are falling. Villanova is No. 175 in that category at 34.8 percent from downtown.

No. 10 Davidson vs. No. 3 Wisconsin (-4.5)
9:40 p.m.

There’s nothing artistic about the Wisconsin Badgers (31-4 SU, 19-13 ATS). They have the most efficient defense in the nation, but it’s about as much fun as watching a clogged drain. And the Bo Ryan “swing offense” is one of the very slowest in Division I. The under, surprise surprise, is 22-10 for Wisconsin. There were some particularly ugly games while sophomore point guard Trevon Hughes got his feet wet, but the Badgers are on a roll now at 9-1 ATS in their last 10.

Momentum will also be a positive factor for Davidson (28-6 SU, 21-11 ATS). The Wildcats are no strangers to handicappers after going 21-9-1 ATS last year, and their second-round upset of Georgetown (-4.5) was the most talked-about game of the Tournament to date. Davidson is on a 9-3 ATS roll, with Stephen Curry making a name for himself with his deadly 3-point shot (44.4 percent). The Badgers, however, will have something for Curry.

South Region
Reliant Stadium, Houston

No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Memphis (-4.5)
7:27 p.m

The Tigers (35-1 SU, 15-19-2 ATS) have failed to capture the imagination of big-money bettors, and no wonder, after going 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games. That record might not be on the radar screens of casual Tournament bettors who only see Memphis as a one-loss juggernaut. Betting trend reports suggest the smaller players are more evenly split on whom to support in this matchup.

That alone makes Michigan State (27-8 SU, 15-14-2 ATS) a value candidate. But MSU has more to offer, like going 6-1 ATS in the last seven games, including all four postseason contests. The Spartans are also breaking in a new point guard in freshman Kalin Lucas; coach Tom Izzo says Lucas and his teammates have grown tougher as the season has worn on, pointing for evidence at their second-round 65-54 victory over Pittsburgh (-2.5).

No. 3 Stanford vs. No. 2 Texas (-2)
9:57 p.m.

Texas (30-6 SU, 16-13-1 ATS) has a legitimate claim as the better team in this matchup. The Longhorns are No. 10 in team efficiency, while Stanford (28-7 SU, 18-17 ATS) is No. 11. Texas also wins the battle against the spread, as “those other guys” supporting Kevin Durant last year have taken over and made the Longhorns better.

The Cardinal nonetheless win this clash of styles on paper. Stanford is much bigger than Texas, led by the 7-foot combo of power forward Brook Lopez and his twin brother Robin at center. This will be an incredibly slow game barring a drastic change is strategy from either side. Stanford could rain threes all night long over top of the undersized Longhorns backcourt; the ability to rebound their own misses could pay off for the Cardinal.

Well, my bracket’s hanging on by a thread. How about yours?

The four No. 1 seeds in the men’s college basketball Tournament have all advanced to the Sweet 16. After that, it’s a bit of a mess. We have three Cinderella teams; that’s two too many, and I’m refusing to lump West Virginia into that group. The Mountaineers (No. 19 in the nation in efficiency) deserved better than a 7-seed in the big dance.

The spotlight nonetheless shines on the West Region, in no small part because the Mountaineers (+4) upset the Duke Blue Devils 73-67 in Saturday’s second-round matchup. Yes, Duke is missing the Sweet 16 for the second year in a row, although last year’s first-round loss to VCU was no surprise around the handicappers’ water cooler. This year was different; the Blue Devils were an elite team a month ago before sputtering the rest of the way at 6-5 straight up and 3-8 against the spread.

Scribes were begging for this storyline upset after a relatively tame first round. Thursday’s action saw the chalk go 13-3 ATS; Friday was split down the middle at 8-8 ATS, with the biggest upset going to Villanova (+5½) over a Clemson Tigers team that was flying under the ACC radar in third place behind North Carolina and Duke.

The second round was when things really started hitting the fan. The Big East wasn’t immune. Pittsburgh (-2½) simply couldn’t keep up with the Michigan State Spartans, losing 65-54. Marquette let Stanford off the hook; grabbing the cash as 2½-point dogs won’t make anyone on the Golden Eagles happy after they lost 82-81 in overtime. And Notre Dame fell by 20 points to Washington State, even if that loss is only notable because of the sheer size.

But Davidson (+4½) over Georgetown? That’s an upset, though the odds reflected that the Wildcats were getting their rightful respect after finishing the year No. 23 in the polls. The Hoyas were effective as usual shutting down Davidson’s perimeter attack, holding the ‘Cats to 6-for-26 from behind the arc. Georgetown was feeling it after building a 17-point lead in the second half. Then the Hoyas got another case of the turnovers: 20 in all, opening the door for another Stephen Curry special. He scored 25 of his 30 points in the second half, and Davidson emerged victorious, 74-70.

Looking ahead to the Sweet 16, Davidson will have to weave some more magic to get past the woefully undervalued Wisconsin Badgers. Wisconsin is on a 10-1 ATS run, cruising past talented Kansas State 72-55 in the second round. The Pomeroy numbers project the Badgers to beat Davidson by nine, but the early line at press time was Wisconsin -4½.

West Virginia’s run through the West continues against the Xavier Musketeers. Xavier is the No. 3 regional seed, but was a 1-point dog on the early line. Perhaps the Musketeers aren’t getting their due coming out of the A-10, but the pointspread in this matchup does more to prove that West Virginia deserved better. Either way, this should be the best game of the third round. Xavier is just one spot ahead of WVU at No. 18 in efficiency.

As for Villanova, the Kansas Jayhawks (-11½) await on Friday. This Cinderella story is destined to go straight to video; Kansas got paid in both the first and second rounds, easily covering double-digit spreads. The Jayhawks lead Division I in efficiency, while the ‘Cats are No. 46. Rollie Massimino isn’t walking through the door anytime soon – is he?

The Duke Blue Devils aren’t here. Neither are the Georgetown Hoyas. That’s how tough it is to get through the door and into the Sweet 16 round of the men’s college basketball Tournament.

All four of the No. 1 seeds have made it this far. Two of them will be in action Thursday night, and it seems pretty safe to say at least one will advance to the Elite Eight.

East Region
Charlotte Bobcats Arena, Charlotte

No. 4 Washington State vs. No. 1 North Carolina (-8½, 142)
Thursday, Mar 27, 7:27 p.m. (ET)
The Tar Heels blew out Mount St. Mary’s (+25) and Arkansas (+9½) in the first round to improve to 22-11 ATS on the season. North Carolina has the second-best offense in Division I according to efficiency, making the over a goldmine at 21-11-1. But the Heels are vulnerable at this level. They have the No. 26-ranked defense, and they don’t collect a lot of blocks, steals or forced turnovers.

Washington State (26-8 SU, 18-15 ATS) will be playing the bad guy in front of the Charlotte fans. This was one of the few remaining undefeated teams this season, along with UNC, but playing on the West Coast in the “small market” of Pullman, Wash. has kept the Cougars under the radar. They’re sixth in the nation in efficiency, just one spot behind the Tar Heels. This could be a close matchup.

No. 3 Louisville vs. No. 2 Tennessee (+3, 146)
Thursday, Mar 27, 9:57 p.m. (ET)
Tennessee does force a lot of turnovers: 24.4 percent of possessions to be specific, good for No. 23 in the nation. But the Volunteers (31-4 SU, 17-14 ATS) have been relying on hustle plays to overcome a relative lack of talent. The Vols don’t have any interior defense, and they’re awful at the foul line (65.6 percent). They’re also 3-5 ATS since holding the No. 1 spot in the polls for a week.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals (26-8 SU, 19-12-1 ATS) have been on fire at 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games, thanks to the return of center David Padgett. He should own the paint against the Vols. But Louisville’s free-throw shooting is even worse than Tennessee’s at 64.4 percent. And they might cough up just enough turnovers (19.8 percent of plays) to allow Tennessee to hang around.

West Region
US Airways Center, Phoenix

No. 7 West Virginia vs. No. 3 Xavier (+1, 136)
Thursday, Mar 27, 7:10 p.m (ET)
The Atlantic 10 Conference was one of the better mid-majors this year, with Dayton and St. Joseph’s both making some noise. But the Musketeers (29-6 SU, 15-16 ATS) are a big-time college program. They’ve been to the Tournament 18 times now in the last 26 years. Xavier has a lot in common with North Carolina when it comes to production, just not quite as talented at No. 18 in efficiency.

West Virginia is next in line at No. 19 in efficiency, but the Mountaineers (26-10 SU, 16-13-1 ATS) are just one of several excellent teams coming out of the eight-bid Big East this year. Their second-round upset of Duke (-4) was blown out of proportion in the press. The betting public knows this – or maybe everyone just hates Duke. Either way, the Mountaineers are favored in what should be a classic.

No. 12 Western Kentucky vs. No. 1 UCLA (-12, 133½)
Thursday, Mar 27, 9:40 p.m. (ET)
At press time, the word on UCLA’s Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (sprained left ankle) and Josh Shipp (strep throat) was that both players are expected to be at or near full capacity for Thursday’s matchup. “Near” is more likely. Swelling has been a problem for Mbah a Moute, although his MRI came back negative, and all eyes are on Shipp after he went scoreless and the Bruins (33-3 SU, 20-13-2 ATS) nearly lost in the second round to Texas A&M (+9½).

Good thing for the Bruins they get a something of a reprieve in the form of the Hilltoppers (29-6 SU, 19-12 ATS). They were the champions of the Sun Belt Conference, which can be charitably called a mid-major at No. 14 out of the 29 Division I member groups. WKU’s success depends on the full-court press; UCLA’s Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook should be able to break free and find Kevin Love under the basket, flashbulbs popping as he dunks.