The Michigan State Spartans have gotten to this point with stiff defense, and we feel they will slow the pace of this Final Four matchup with the Connecticut Huskies enough for this game to stay Under the total.

The Under is now 11-4 in the last 15 Michigan State games overall, and they have held their four opponents in this tournament so far to an average of just 61.3 points per game. They held Louisville to 52 points in the Elite Eight by playing deliberately and not turning the ball over, thus not allowing the Cardinals to set up their fast break. Expect an identical game plan vs. this second straight Big East opponent.

As much as Connecticut would prefer a fast pace, they are also no opposed to a half-court game if that is what they have to do to win, and as a result, the Under is a surprising 17-12, 58.6 percent in all Huskies games this season. Also, do not discount the Connecticut defense here either, as they are allowing 63.7 points on only 37.6 percent shooting for the entire season.

While we expect a tightly contested game here that can end on either side of the spread (currently Connecticut -4), we do expect this contest to stay safely Under.

Free Pick: Michigan State, Connecticut Under 134 (-110)

Make no mistake, the Baylor Bears have more natural talent than the group from Mount Nittany. However, we can't help using the Lions in this key spot for the Blue and White.

Remember, Penn State has a huge contingent of graduates in the New York area as the Lions bring the largest alumni fan base in the country. Home court advantage? You bet!

Realize that Baylor is far away from their Big 12 roots and they play against the most effective half-court unit thus far in the tourney. In addition, I fully expect a controlled effort from the Penn State guards to keep the Bears' run-and-gun mindset under control.

Finally, Baylor plays out of character this evening knowing they board at 1-7 ATS as a chalk in this price range. This could be a historic game for Penn State on the basketball court.

Free Pick: Penn State -3½ (-110)

The Michigan State Spartans and the Connecticut Huskies will be meeting for only the third time in the last 12 years this Saturday; and if their last two meetings were any indication, good things seem to come to the winner of this matchup.

ROUND ONE
December 05, 1998 – The top-ranked Huskies proved to be too deep and talented for the 9th-ranked Michigan State Spartans, validating their No. 1 seed with a convincing win at home, 82-68. Most impressively, UConn pulled off the victory despite their best player, Richard “Rip” Hamilton, having an off night. Khalid El-Amin led the Huskies with 20 points, and Jake Voskuhl (17 points) and Kevin Freeman (16 points) rounded out the top three in scoring.

When March rolled around, UConn put together a dominant tournament performance. Despite being ranked No. 1 for half of the year, Connecticut still found themselves a 9-point underdog in the 1999 NCAA Finals against Duke, but they ended up prevailing as Rip Hamilton was named the tournament’s most outstanding player.

Winner: Connecticut

ROUND TWO
February 05, 2000 – Exactly 14 months after Connecticut stomped Michigan State by double digits en route to a national championship, the two teams met up again; this time it would be No. 8 Michigan State doing the stomping.

Morris Peterson led a well-rounded State attack with 16 points over No. 7 Connecticut, winning in convincing fashion in front of the home fans, 85-66.

One month later, it was time for March Madness and the No. 1 seed Spartans ran the gauntlet and defeated Florida in the championship game. It was a dominating tournament for Michigan State, as they won every game they played by double digits.

Winner: Michigan State

ROUND THREE
April 4, 2009 – This brings us to the rubber match. While it may obviously be nothing more than coincidence, it is still pretty interesting that the winner of this matchup in the past went on to win the championship. Their road after the game will certainly be a lot shorter this time around.

So who takes this one? With coaches Jim Calhoun and Tom Izzo still at the helm, the fundamental system and ideologies are still the same for both programs. Of course, the rosters have changed quite a bit since the turn of the millennium.

Connecticut features three excellent players in Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien, and A.J. Price. All three play a pivotal roll in UConn’s success; Thabeet powers the defense with his massive size and shot blocking ability, Adrien pitches in with points and rebounds, and Price runs the offense and gives the Huskies some versatility with his outside shooting.

Michigan State is led by Kalin Lucas, the Big Ten player of the year that averaged 16.5 points per game in league play. Stout defense and great play on the boards, lead by Goran Suton and Raymar Morgan make Michigan State a very difficult team to play against.

With the Final Four being played in Detroit, there is little doubt that Michigan State will have virtual home court advantage which will definitely be helpful in keeping their morale up. But will it be enough to defeat UConn?

I don’t think it will. The areas that Michigan State excel in, defense and rebounding, Connecticut is very strong in as well, if not stronger. Thabeet’s presence is just too much to handle, and Price’s 3-point ability gives the Huskies a definite edge from downtown. If Connecticut’s Big 3 can stay out of foul trouble, they are capable of winning the battle on the boards and beating Michigan State at their own game.

Michigan State is no pushover; this will likely be a hard-fought game to the finish and probably won’t be a double-digit blowout like the last two meetings between these teams were. That being said, I think the bookies are factoring in home court a little too heavily to be giving Michigan State four points. In the end, the Huskies should outlast the Spartans and cover the spread in the process.

THE PLAY: Connecticut -4

The San Diego St. Aztecs haven't been getting much respect from the majority of the betting public lately, and the puhblic got burnt last week when we cashed our ticket with them against St.Mary's laying the short chalk.

Baylor is an up-and-down the court type of team with a lot of firepower from the perimeter. What they lack is depth up front. That is going to be the difference maker in this game.

Steve Fisher's team has plenty of forwards with guys like Kyle Spain, Lorenzo Wade, Kyle Amoroso, and Billy White. That's just for starters; then off the bench he rotates in Medhi Chereit and Tim Shelton. They are going to dominate Baylor down low tonight.

Baylor matched up well with the small Auburn team but tonight Kevin Rogers will have his hands full in the paint against San Diego St. The Aztecs are playing with a chip on their shoulder after feeling they got burned not getting a bid to the Tournament and rightfully so!

We think S.D. State proved they can compete with Big 12 competition after beating Kansas St. by 18. As a matter of fact, SD State is 5-0 ATS in their last five vs the Big 12. They are on fire cashing six of their last seven tickets ATS.

Ride the hot streak with confidence in the talent of Fisher's deep unit to get the straight up win against Baylor.

Free Pick: San Diego State +1 (-110)

While we have a lot of respect for the Big 12, we feel that the 26-9 San Diego State Aztecs have been underrated all year, and they get the call here over the 23-14 Baylor Bears.

Remember that this contest is in Madison Square Garden, and the key here is how these teams have performed on the road. The Aztecs are a respectable 5-5 straight up on the road, although they have been slightly outscored in those games by a scant average of -1.3 points. Remember also that they dismantled another Big 12 team in this tournament in Kansas State 70-52, and San Diego State is a very bettor-friendly 18-12-1, 60.0 percent against the spread this year.

Baylor may come out of the tough conference, but they are just 4-8 SU on the road while getting outscored by -4.9 points per game. They have also not looked as impressive as San Diego State in their three NIT wins so far, with two of their three wins so far being by exactly two points. It is also worth noting that Baylor is actually ranked behind the Aztecs in the Pomeroy Ratings, as San Diego State is ranked 29 and the Bears rank 35.

We look for those ratings to come to fruition tonight with a San Diego State victory.

Free Pick: San Diego State +1 (-110)

The Oklahoma Sooners get to open up here a little bit vs. the North Carolina Tar Heels after playing two zone defensive teams Michigan and Syracuse.

They handled the zone just fine and now UNC who will run man to man most of the game, which should create some nice opportunities for Blake Griffin to dump it out to guys like Warren and Crocker. Griffin and Tyler Hansbrough will be a great battle in the paint but we think statistically the winner of the battle will be Griffin.

This will be the best team that Oklahoma has faced, but they showed us a lot about themselves in that game against Syracuse. They had the game in the bag halfway through against a Syracuse team that many people thought were going to pull off the upset. Syracuse had some bodies down low and still couldn't compete with the Sooners.

UNC is a up and down style of team who lights up the scoreboard. They've scored 80 or more points in seven of their last 10 games. OU has guys like Griffin, Austin Johnson, Warren, and Crocker who can keep up with that pace of scoring against UNC with no problem. OU is 7-4 against the spread when they score 80 points or more this season.
 
Both teams are hot right now, at 3-0 ATS in the Tourney so far. UNC is just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games and 3-7 ATS vs. quality teams with winning records. UNC is also just 7-13 ATS this season when teams put up at least 70 points on them. Like we said earlier this OU team is easily capable of putting up 70 and making a track meet out of this game.
 
The Tar Heels aren't a defensive juggernaut to say the least and playing a team who can score like OU laying this many points is a no-no. Back Blake Griffin and the OU Sooners and take the points. We don't know if they pull off the upset here but they will play the Tar Heels down to the wire.

Free Pick: Oklahoma +7 (-110)

The Louisville Cardinals exploded for 103 points in their rout of the Arizona Wildcats in the Sweet 16, but we feel that just gives us added value on the Under here in their Elite Eight matchup with the Michigan State Spartans.

After all, while Louisville is obviously capable offensively, the main reason they have gotten to this point is their defense, The Cardinals have allowed just 61.8 points per game on a miniscule 39.4 percent shooting from the floor over the entire year, and according to the Pomeroy Ratings, they are second in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing only .833 points per possession.

Also keep in mind that their offensive explosion Friday came vs. a middle-of-the-pack Pac-10 team that is not known for defense, and they will not have as much success running today vs. a defensive-minded Spartans team that is almost as stingy as Louisville.

Michigan State is allowing 63.0 points per game on 41.5 percent shooting, and they held a very good Kansas offense to 62 points Friday. The Spartans are ranked number 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency by Pomeroy, allowing .887 PPP, and they also play great perimeter defense, allowing only a 31.5 percent success rate on three-point attempts.

These are two defensive-minded teams, so we look for the pace of this game to more closely resemble the Michigan State/Kansas matchup on Friday than the game where Louisville ran an outclassed Arizona team off the floor.

Free Pick: Michigan State, Louisville Under 138 (-110)

The Villanova Wildcats have certainly looked impressive while running teams off the floor in this tournament, but never forget that defense wins championships, so we will side with the gritty Pittsburgh Panthers in this all Big East Elite Eight battle.

After all, the Panthers are now 31-4 this year, thanks to a defense that has limited opponents to 64.2 points per game overall on just 40.8 percent shooting from the floor. This is not to say that the offense has not done its part, as according to the Pomeroy Ratings, Pittsburgh is now second in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. It also helps that they lead the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, thanks to DeJuan Blair.

Now we have a lot of respect for Villanova, and they really are a Final Four caliber club. However, they just drew a terrible matchup here, as they would probably have a better chance of advancing vs. any other of the Elite Eight clubs this year except North Carolina. Yes, the Wildcats did beat Pittsburgh 67-57 during the regular season, but that was in Philadelphia.

Here on a neutral court, we simply feel that Pittsburgh is the better, more balanced team, and we do not expect Villanova to have as easy a time running the floor as they have the first three games of the tournament.

As long as Blair avoids foul trouble, the Panthers should prevail.

Free Pick: Pittsburgh -2 (-110)

It would be nice if we could get a high-scoring affair like last night’s 101-92 Missouri vs. Memphis game. We’d be counting our money at the 10-minute mark of the second half. While I don’t think we’ll see anything close to 193,  I do envision something tonight in the 160s.

Picking a winner in this game is difficult. How do you go against a Syracuse team that survied the tough Big East Conference tournament including a six-overtime instant classic? On the other hand it’s tough to ignore Blake Griffin and Oklahoma. Had Griffin not been hurt late in the regular season, OU would have been a No. 1 seed. It’s a tough call on the side, so I’m taking the easy and obvious way out. I’m playing the Over.

This could very well be a run-and-shoot type game. The Sooners are second in the nation in field goal percentage and the Orange are sixth. Syracuse can kill you softly from 3-point range while Oklahoma can pound you inside.

‘Cuse, which is on an 8-1 run to the Over, averages 84 ppg and gives up nearly 80 per contest. OU averages 78 ppg but has allowed significantly fewer points at 68 per game.
In their tournament opener against Stephen F. Austin, a tired Syracuse team scored just 59 points. However they rebounded with a 78-point performance in their second round win over Arizona State. In that contest, Jim Boeheim's club hit nine 3's while allowing 13 from beyond the arc.

Oklahoma scored 82 against Morgan State and followed that up with 73 against Michigan. In the game against the Wolverines, the Sooners' defense was lit up for 10 three-pointers.

Free Pick: Syracuse-Oklahoma Over 151½ (-110)

Look for Purdue’s tournament run to come to an end tonight when the Boilermakers face an embattled U-Conn squad.

As Jim Calhoun's club gets ready for it's biggest game of the year, they're also dealing with a big off-court distraction. However I expect the Huskies to be focused and ready for tonight’s “Sweet 16” battle against the Boilermakers.

The Huskies, who have arguably been the most impressive team in the tournament winning by an average of 41-points per game, are no strangers to adversity. They survived the season-ending injury to point guard Jerome Dyson and won their tournament opener with their head coach sidelined due to illness. I'm guessing they'll handle this recruiting scandal the same way.

UConn hasn’t been tested yet in the tournament but they'll get all they can handle against Purdue. And while the Boilermakers figures to keep it close, I just don’t see a scenario in which Purdue can pull off the upset.

The Huskies have scored 117, 103 and 92 points respectively in their last three games, but don't hold your breath if your looking for those kind of numbers against Purdue. The B's can play D, and have held eight of their previous 10 opponents under 70 points.

What will decide this one is talent. And U-Conn has a huge advantage in that department. From A.J. Price to Hasheem Thabeet to the unheralded Jeff Adrien, the Huskies are balanced at every spot on the floor.

Chalk up another win for the Big East as UConn puts distractions aside and rolls into the "Elite Eight" with a double-digit knockout of Purdue.

Free Pick: Connecticut -6½ (-110)

One of the hottest college basketball teams takes the floor tonight and it is from somewhere other than the Sweet 16. Old Dominion is taking part in the College Insider Tournament and right now they are playing their best basketball of the season.

The Monarchs have won 12 of their last 14 games and they are doing it with a group of players that were not expected to do much this season due to a lack of experience. Old Dominion’s depth has become important in the postseason as the Monarchs gave eight players extensive minutes in their opening round victory over The Citadel and the team’s high scorer, guard Keyon Carter, came off the bench. Backups accounted for 79 of the 200 minutes played in the game.

The two opening victories have given Old Dominion another home game and this one has some added incentive. The Monarchs are 15-3 at home this season with one of those losses coming against a solid UAB team.

Another loss came against these same Dukes on January 7. Old Dominion was able to avenge that loss by beating James Madison in Harrisonburg later in the month but there is still some revenge in order as the Monarchs want the payback on their home floor.

The Dukes won both of their tournament games but both came against much inferior competition. After winning eight of 10 games at one point this season, they dropped eight of their final 13. Leading scorer Juwann James missed the last game against Liberty and while he has been upgraded to probable for this one, he isn’t close to 100 percent. He practiced the last two days and will attempt to play today, but head coach Matt Brady said his effectiveness will determine how many minutes he gets.

In the Dukes' win in the first meeting, they shot an incredible 66.7 percent from the floor and I can guarantee we will not see that type of performance again. In the second meeting, Andrey Semenov scored 16 but he will not be around for this one.

The trends favor James Madison who has been solid on the road, but there is a lot more incentive for the home team as Old Dominion does in fact get its payback tonight.

Free Pick: Old Dominion -6½ (-110)

The West Coast Conference's St. Mary's Gaels (28-6) prepare for a good game with the the Aztecs (25-9) of the MWC at Cox Arena on the San Diego St. tonight. We feel San Diego St. caught a raw deal by not getting a bid into the Big Dance and Steve Fisher's team definitely has the right to feel slighted.
 
The bottom line in this game is everyone is seeing the big win for St. Mary's against Davidson and that is what the public is remembering right now. They are pounding St.Mary's today as one of the most popular plays at various books offshore and in Vegas. They don't realize how talented Fisher's team is. They also see that the Gaels already won by three over the Aztecs earlier this year. Coach Fisher will have his fellas prepared to play tonight!

San Diego St. is loaded with talented seniors. Kyle Spain (14.4 PPG 5.4 RPG) and Lorenzo Wade (13.8 PPG 4.8 RPG) are two very solid forwards in the frontcourt. Stingy senior point guard Richie Williams has 65 steals this season, shooting 40% from beyond the arc and averaging 7 PPG and 4 RPG. The Aztecs are very deep in their frontcourt with Mehdi Cheriet, Tim Shelton, Billy White and Ryan Amoroso all rotating in along with Spain and Wade.  That's six bodies Fisher has that play quality minutes to rotate in and out against the Gaels.

The Gaels are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 as a road dog and 0-5 ATS in their last five road games overall. The Aztecs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games. San Diego St. is our dark horse in the NIT right now.

Free Pick: San Diego St. -3 (-110)

Notre Dame was a preseason Top 10 team and one of the favorites to win the Big East. Their best player, forward Luke Harangody, was a consensus Big East Player of the Year candidate and widely regarded as one of the top low post players in the nation.

Kentucky wasn't supposed to compete for a national championship, but after 17 straight appearances in the NCAA Tournament, another visit to the Big Dance seemed like a formality.
It’s not the “Sweet 16” but the winner does earn a visit to the Big Apple and a spot in the NIT semifinals next week at Madison Square Garden.

This is the 10th straight year that Notre Dame has played in the postseason and much of the credit for that impressive e streak goes to head coach Mike Brey who has helped the Irish amass a 25-10 all-time record in the NIT.

One thing is certain about tonight’s game. You’ll see defense on both ends of the court. Notre Dame held Louisville and USF to 57 points in back-to-back games at home a month ago, marking the first time since joining the Big East 13 seasons ago that an Irish team held conference opponents to under 60 points in back-to-back league contests.

Notre Dame did that again when the Irish held Rutgers to 50 points in the first round of the Big East Tournament on March 10 after giving up just 55 points in the regular season finale against St. John's. In fact, after giving up an average of 91.7 points in consecutive losses at Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and UCLA, the Irish have yielded 66.8 points in their last 12 outings.

As Harangody goes, so goes ND. Harangody became the first player in league history to lead the conference in scoring in back-to-back seasons as he averaged 25.2 points and 12.8 rebounds this season after winning the scoring and rebounding titles as a sophomore when he averaged 23.3 points and 11.3 rebounds. In his three-year Big East career, he has scored 1,031 points (19.9 ppg.) in 52 regular-season league contests. Only three other players in the history of the league scored more than 1,000 points in three seasons.

Free Pick: Notre Dame -2½ (-110)

We have a lot of respect for the Gonzaga Bulldogs, but their style of play is very similar to their opponents in the Sweet 16, the North Carolina Tar Heels, and frankly, we do not feel there is any team in the country that can out-North Carolina North Carolina.

Besides, Gonzaga has yet to cover a spread in this tournament, finally shaking off Akron in the first round and then barely nipping Western Kentucky on Saturday. They are now stepping way up in class here, and the last time that the Zags played a team even remotely close to the Tar Heels talent wise, they got blown out at home by 18 points by Memphis. Sure, they have won 11 straight games since then, but none of those wins were vs. upper echelon teams.

The Heels were upset in the ACC Tournament, but that has not affected their play in the Big Dance, as they followed up their 43-point destruction of Radford with what many observers considered to be a surprisingly easy 14-point win over LSU, as the injured Ty Lawson provided the spark they needed. One has to assume that Lawson will only get better here with almost a full week off, and we feel that would make UNC just about unbeatable vs. a team that tries to run with them.

Well, Gonzaga loves playing at a fast pace, and unfortunately, we think that any team that tries to run the floor with the Heels is doomed to fail. As much as we love the Zags as a whole, we foresee a double-digit North Carolina win Friday.

Free Pick: North Carolina -8½ (-110)

The Liberty Flames are a fun team to watch, as they love to run the floor and often consider defense to be an afterthought, but that approach should be successful at home tonight when they host the James Madison Dukes in the quarterfinals of the College Insider Tournament.

The Flames overwhelmed Rider 79-64 in the first round of this tournament in a game that was not even that close, as Liberty built up a lead of more than 20 points in the first half and maintained it most of the way.

According to the Pomeroy Ratings, Liberty averages 1.043 points per possession on 65.9 possessions per game, mainly because they rank 25 in the entire country in two-point field goal percentage at 52.9 percent. It is no fluke that this team is now 23-11 overall, including 15-2 here at home where the Flames are outscoring their opponents by an average of +6.6 points, more than good enough to cover this small number.

This makes for a tough matchup for James Madison, as they rank 206 in the country in two-point field goal percentage defense at 48.8 percent, and we just do not see how they can slow down the Liberty offense here. Sure, the Dukes have a winning road record of 7-6 straight up, but they do not face any teams that resemble the style that the Flames plays as they come out of the more deliberate Colonial Athletic Association.

Look for the home team to run James Madison off the court here tonight.

Free Pick: Liberty -3 (-110)

Kentucky held off UNLV's late charge in their opening round NIT clash. Now the Wildcats must hit the road and they're facing the type of team that figures to give them big problems.

Creighton was here in the Qwest Center last Wednesday and had to rally for a 73-71 win over Bowling Green to avoid the upset as 12-point favorites. The win pushed the Bluejays to a 27-7 record on the season.

Kentucky has had some real turnover issues on the road, and Creighton is going to press them all over the court. The Bluejays will also maintain a frenetic rotation and I would not be surprised to see the Wildcats wear down as this game progresses.

I'm also not sure how much Kentucky cares about this contest, while the Omaha faithful should keep the Bluejays fired up. Cheap number gets me on Creighton is a game they should win and cover.

Free Pick: Creighton -2 (-110)

Southern Cal is 22-12 this year while Michigan State is 27-6 on the season. The Trojans are 4-8 SU as an underdog this year while the Spartans are is 22-4 SU as a favorite.

Michigan State is 8-2 ATS since 1997 as a neutral court favorite of 3½-6 points. The difference in this game is going to be how each team plays on the road.

Southern Cal is only 6-10 SU on the road this year while Michigan State is an amazing 15-3 SU away from home. I feel like the Michigan State defense is better than Southern Cal's as the Spartans allow only 62.9 points per game.

The Spartans are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. We'll recommend a small play on Michigan State today.

Free Pick: Michigan St. -4 (-110)

Both the Villanova Wildcats and the UCLA Bruins were a bit sloppy in the first round of this tournament, but the bottom line is that Villanova is the better team from the better conference, and the fact that this game is being played in their second home makes this a rather obvious call.

Villanova is 14-2 at home this season while winning by an average of +14.6 points per game. This is significant because the Wildcats played several of those home games right here in Wachovia Center. Sure, that gives them a rather unfair advantage here, but that does not mean we as bettors cannot take advantage of this. Furthermore, the Wildcats accumulated those gaudy home numbers while playing in the deepest conference in the country.

On the flip side, UCLA has been rather ordinary away from home this season, going 9-6 compared to their 17-2 home mark. Even more distressing is the fact that the Bruins are under .500 against the spread away from home, going 6-8-1 ATS while only outscoring their road opponents by a miniscule +1.3 points, and their task will be even tougher here as we believe Villanova represents a huge jump in class from the teams UCLA usually visits.

The only thing that bothers us is that this line looks too easy, but then again, a lot of that has to do with UCLA being overrated, so we will bite on Villanova at a bargain price at home.

Free Pick: Villanova -2 (-110)

The Villanova Wildcats are the better overall team on the court here Saturday and the UCLA Bruins are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record over .600.

Villanova is 13-1 SU in their last 14 non-conference games. UCLA depends on their 3-point shot but Villanova's perimeter defense has been solid this season while the Bruins' perimeter defense has been anything but solid with opponents shooting 40.1% against them from beyond the arc.

I have Villanova winning this game by 6-8 points Saturday so take them as your play in Saturday's second round of the NCAA Tournament.

Free Pick: Villanova -1½ (-110)

Purdue looked okay in their opening round win over Northern Iowa, but Washington was better as they dispatched Mississippi State.

Quincy Pondexter and Jon Brockman combined for 33 points and 22 rebounds in the Huskies' (-6) 71-58 win over the Bulldogs Thursday in Portland's Rose Garden.  That game came just after the Boilermakers (-8½) held on for a 61-56 triumph over the Panthers.  E'Twuan Moore paced Purdue with 17 points in that contest.

The performance thus far of the Big Ten in comparison to the Pac-10 can certainly be factored into this game, and the site clearly favors the Left Coast squad as well. This should be one of the best second round games as Purdue is a very capable entry and the Huskies are a solid team.

It's too close on paper for me to take a strong stand, but I'll lean to Washington to move on to the Sweet 16.

Free Pick: Washington -1 (-110)

Cornell’s opening round draw is not a good one when it comes to style of play and the ability to enforce your will onto that opponent. Cornell did a good job against Ivy League competition with their half-court sets and draining 3-pointers, but Missouri plays a very intense defensive scheme that will not allow the Big Red to get those uncontested treys.

The key in this contest is not only the high pressure style of the Tigers, it’s also the fact they have the athletes to make them work. Cornell may have the ability to make it close early on but Missouri’s intensity and deep bench will eventually wear down and overwhelm the Big Red in today’s game.

Cornell is in a negative situation which is not good news for their backers as they are 0-6 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in two straight games over the last two seasons. Missouri on the other hand has found success against teams that do not turn the ball over, going 11-1 ATS versus teams committing <=14 turnovers per game after 15+ games this season. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS after five straight games committing 14 or less turnovers the last two seasons. A solid defensive team that doesn’t turn the ball over and can score sounds like the perfect combination for an easy win and cover for the Tigers on Friday.

A check of the database has uncovered a system that tells us to play on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick after two straight games committing 11 or less turnovers against an opponent coming off a game in which they committed eight or less turnovers, 29-9 ATS the last five seasons.

It may be double-digits but that will not matter in the end as Missouri rolls past the Cornell Big Red and advances to the next round of the tournament.

Projected Final Score: Tigers-78 Big Red-56

Free Pick: Missouri -12½ (-110)

Kansas hasn’t gotten a lick of respect from the betting markets all year. In game after game the wise guys played against the Jayhawks; in game after game the wiseguys lost money.

That’s how the Jayhawks – The team that won the national title last year; the team that won the Big 12 this year; a public team if there ever was one – finished as the second-best major conference pointspread team in the country, a near impossible task.

Well the wiseguys are doing it again, and this time they have the TV talking heads agreeing with them. All the pundits are claiming that North Dakota State is going to give Kansas a tough game. We saw the Bison play Minnesota earlier this year and the crowd was half North Dakota State supporters. And there’s no question that NDSU will have plenty of fans making the relatively short trip to Minneapolis for this one.

But let’s not forget how well Kansas travels either. The Jayhawks played in Vegas last year and it was a virtual home game for them. The trip from Lawrence to Minneapolis isn’t that much further than the trip for North Dakota State supporters. Kansas is going to enjoy a raucous crowd of their own, every bit as vocal as the Bisons supporters.

North Dakota St. played one game against an NCAA tournament team this year – at Minnesota. They lost that game by 14. In their previous lined game, last year at Cal, they also lost by 14 against a .500 Cal squad. The Summit League was one of the weakest conferences in all of college basketball this year. Yes, the Bison have a starting five of seniors, but remember, these guys have never played in a game of this magnitude in their lives. They are not Kansas in terms of size, speed, poise or experience.

Sherron Collins in the backcourt and Cole Aldrich in the frontcourt have the potential to be impact players at the next level, far superior than anybody North Dakota State has faced this year. The only underrated, undervalued team on this floor is the cheaply priced favorite.

Free Pick: Kansas -9½ (-110)

For an opposing view, CLICK HERE

Missouri leads the country in “ugly wins.” They grind it out for 40 minutes and that style worked well enough to win the Big 12 tournament and earn the Tigers a third seed in the Big Dance.

Tulsa, under Nolan Richardson, used to play a style of basketball that was labeled “40 Minutes of Hell.”  This Missouri team might be in that same class. They’re deep and athletic and figure to Cornell a tough time.

The Big Red are one of the top offensive teams in the country scoring 74 points a game and hitting 41 percent of their 3-pointers. Getting those looks against an Ivy league school is one thing but against a defensive presence like the Tigers, that’s another story entirely.

Missouri comes from arguably one of the top three conferences in America. They’ve faced Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and had one of the tougher non-conference schedules in the nation. The same can’t be said for Cornell whose resume includes double-digit losses to the likes of St. John's and Indiana.

I’m not sure why this number is this low given Mizzou’s strength of schedule compared to Cornell’s. But I’ll gladly take it and ride the Tigers to a win and cover and into round two.

Free Pick: Missouri -12½ (-110)

Many of the so called “upsets” in the NCAA tournament are mainly because of match ups. The little guy, so to speak, matches up nicely vs. their opponent from a major conference. That is the case here. In fact, Cleveland State is a bad match up for this Wake Forest team.

First of all, Wake is still a young team with a number of freshman and sophomores playing key roles. In fact, the Demon Deacon squad does not have a senior that averages more than 11 minutes per game. Because of that, this team has been inconsistent all year long. They look like world beaters one game and then slip up against a sub par opponent the next. We like fading those teams at this time of year especially when laying significant points against a solid opponent.

Cleveland State is a senior laden team with a very good backcourt. The Vikings have five seniors that average more than 20 minutes per game. Senior guards Cedric Jackson and D'Aundray Brown are experienced players who can create on offense and wreak havoc on defense. That’s not a good mix for Wake. Why? Because this young Demon Deacon team is really poor at protecting the ball.

They average almost 16 turnovers per game (297th nationally) with a turnover rate of 20.3% which ranks them near the bottom of Division 1A. Because of that, Wake’s assists-to-turnovers ratio is a bad 0.844. That plays right into CSU’s hands as their pressure defense is among the best nationally. They cause opponents to turn the ball over a whopping 24% of the time which is 11th in the country. The Vikings, and their senior guards, are very good at protecting the ball and limiting turnovers. Those two things combined, tell us CSU will get more possessions than Wake here making it tough for the Deacs to cover this number.

Cleveland State played a tough non-conference schedule which proved they can play with the big boys. The played at West Virginia, at Kansas State and at Washington, and played all three fairly tight. This team won at Syracuse and played Butler to the wire three times, winning one and losing the other two by two points each.

Wake, on the other hand, struggled their final six games playing close with a number of teams they should have handled easily. It culminated in a 9-point loss to Maryland in the ACC tournament.

We have no doubt that CSU keeps this one close and we have an 8-point cushion in our favor. Take the points here.

Free Pick: Cleveland State +9 (-110)

Dionte Christmas is going to go off in the Tournament and a lot of people who don't know him will know him by the time it's said and done.

Temple will play ASU down to the wire. They are built tough in the paint with gifted sophmore forward Lavoy Allen. He is one of the young gifted players many have never heard of. He has a great wingspan and is a solid player on the boards and around the basket. Allen has 11 PPG, 9 RPG and 48 blocks this year. He tends to get in foul trouble sometimes which he must avoid in this game.

Big 7-foot center Sergio Olmos from Spain always creates problems in the paint. Olmos and ASU big man Jeff Pendergraph will be in a solid battle on the boards.

Senior guard Semaj Inge is great at driving to the basket and drawing the foul and is capable of hitting a shot from the perimeter. They are a blue collar squad with a great experienced coach in Fran Duphny. ASU may walk out of here with a win but future NBA player Dionte Christmas will get these kids going by motivating them and pouring his all into this game, keeping it very tight.

Temple is coming in hot winning eight of their last 10 games. Arizona St. has won six of their last 10 games coming in. Defense is what wins games and Temple is capable of guarding James Harden on the wing with guys like Inge and Christmas. A small play on the ML isn't out of the question here.

Free Pick: Temple +5½ (-110)

For an opposing view, CLICK HERE.

It was a major story in the Ivy League when Cornell ended 20 years of domination by Penn and Princeton – One or the other had represented the Ivy League in every NCAA tourney from 1989-2007 – by taking last year's Ivy League title with a 14-0 record. The Big Red are back again this year, making them the loop's first repeat winner other than Penn or Princeton since Dartmouth turned the trick in 1958-59.

Cornell went in 11-3 the Ivy League this year (21-9 overall), despite the fact that Adam Gore (10.2 PPG / 41.5% on three's) missed the entire season and his backcourt partner Louis Dale didn't get into the lineup until Dec 6. Dale averaged 13.5 PPG and 4.3 RPG, almost matching his numbers of the previous two seasons (13.3-4.5 and 13.7-4.4). The 6-6 Ryan Wittman (18.5-3.6-2.7) was the team's best player this season, joined in the frontcourt by the 7-0 Jeff Foote (11.8-7.1) and the 6-7 Alex Tyler (6.7-4.6).

Freshman guard Chris Wroblewski (6.7-2.3) has been starting alongside of Dale, and junior guard Geoff Reeves (9.1) has been the first player off the bench. This team can score, averaging 74.1 PPG and shooting 47.8 percent from the floor (41.5 on three's, which ranks third in the nation). Do the Big Red have a chance against Missouri?

Possibly, as the Tigers must be "full of themselves" after capturing the school's first Big 12 tourney title but the danger for Cornell backers is that Missouri only knows how to play one way.

Mike Anderson claimed he had the talent and depth this year to fully implement his mentor's (Nolan Richardson) "40 Minutes of Hell" and he was right. The Tigers went unbeaten in Columbia (owned the nation's largest margin of victory in home games) and as just mentioned, won the Big 12 tourney title (3-0 ATS) with wins over Texas Tech by 21, Oklahoma St by eight (off its upset of Oklahoma) and Baylor by 13 (after the Bears had beaten both Kansas and Texas).

The 6-8 DeMarre Carroll (16.8-7.3) and the 6-9 Leo Lyons (14.2-6.0) have both been terrific, while the 6-7 Matt Lawrence (9.0) leads a group of seven other players all getting 12 minutes or more of playing time (two other players just dropped under 10 MPG of action late in the season). J.T. Tiller (7.9-3.3-3.6) and Zaire Taylor (6.5-3.1-3.5) have shared the point guard duties and the Tigers average 81.1 PPG on 47.2 percent shooting.

Mike Anderson's up-tempo and high-pressure style, fueled by a terrific group of athletes, will likely limit Cornell's ability to run its half-court offense and to get those open looks their 3-point shooters need. It's not a fluke that Ivy League reps have failed to cover in nine of their last 10 first-round games. Lay it with the Tigers.

Free Pick: Missouri -12½ (-110)

Kansas has lost two of their last three games, both to mediocre teams and the Jayhawks may be one of the more overrated No. 3 seeds in recent years. Kansas had a great tournament run last year to take the championship but this is a completely different team.

The Jayhawks benefited from a weak conference schedule and got their biggest win over Oklahoma with Blake Griffin out of the lineup. In non-conference play Kansas was very ordinary and the overall strength of the Big 12 appeared down this year. Kansas was a strong ATS team this season but that will translate into an inflated line in this opening matchup.

It might be tough for Kansas to get a high level of energy for this early game and the Metrodome will be filled with North Dakota State fans as the Bison make their first NCAA tournament appearance. ND State plays very tough defense and can be a great scoring team with a veteran lineup that is battle tested.

The Bison lost by just four at USC and played close at Minnesota this season, and in the last two years they own wins over Marquette and Wisconsin so this is a team that can compete with the big boys. The favorable location should help energize a crowd that will pull for the underdog. Prior to last year's great run the Jayhawks made several early exits from the NCAA tournament and this could be a tough game for Kansas.

Free Pick: North Dakota St. +9½ (-110)

For an opposing view, CLICK HERE

It has been six years since Arizona St. last made a trip to the NCAA tournament and the Sun Devils are not going to go out early as this team has the makeup for a big run.

It is obviously one game at a time but the Sun Devils got a very good draw in the South Region. A win here likely sets up a game against Syracuse and it is anyone’s guess how the Orange are going to react after their marathon trip to the Big Dance through the Big East Tournament. A possible showdown with Oklahoma looms in the Sweet 16, but first things first and that is taking out a Temple team what won the Atlantic 10 Tournament and likely would not be here if not for that.

Arizona St. players obviously have no experience on this stage but that should not be a detriment. Sun Devils head coach Herb Sendek has plenty of experience from his days at NC State and Miami Ohio where he guided the Wolfpack and RedHawks to six tournament appearances, going 6-6 and most importantly, 5-1 in first round games. The Sun Devils went 9-5 against this year's NCAA field and Sendek said he thinks that's enough to overcome their lack of postseason experience.

ASU has a very important asset to be successful in the tournament and that is strengths both inside and outside. The Devils have the very versatile James Harden, who will make many first-team All-America lists, as well as the nation's most accurate shooter in Jeff Pendergraph.

Both teams put up solid numbers in their conference runs and Temple is no doubt a very hot team right now. However, comparing the Atlantic 10 to the Pac-10 is like comparing a Jeep to a Hummer: nice and efficient but not nearly as strong. The Pac-10 is ranked in the top three conferences while the A-10 is well below that, coming in anywhere between eighth and 10th, in the same line as the MVC and C-USA who each got just one team into the tournament.

The Sun Devils have advantages in two key areas and those are free throw shooting and assist/turnover ratio. Those margins are even bigger when looking at the last five games of each team and that is with Temple winning all five of those. The Owls' win over Xavier was a solid win but you have to go all the way back to December to see their last quality win and that was a victory over Tennessee, arguably one of the bigger disappointments in the country this season. Those were the only two wins over tournament teams as they went 0-4 in the other games against other teams in the field.

For the season, Arizona St. went 10-6 against the nation’s Top 50 including 4-2 against the Top 25, while Temple went just 2-4 against the Top 50 and 1-4 against the Top 25.

Arizona St. is 8-2 ATS this season when coming off a non-cover and falls into a solid situation: Play on teams from the six major conferences when playing against a team not from those six conferences and favored between 3½-9½ points, and coming off a conference loss. These play-on teams are 45-17 ATS over the last 12 years including a 17-5 ATS mark over the last five years.

The Sun Devils will prove to be too much for the Owls on Friday.

Free Pick: Arizona St. -5½ (-110)

For an opposing view, CLICK HERE.

Our Thursday night NIT selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the point at home in the Bryce Jordan Center over Rhode Island.

On Tuesday, we cashed our NIT play on "Rhodie" +4 over Niagara, but we'll go against Jim Baron's Rams tonight.  These two teams met earlier this season, and Rhode Island came away with a hard-fought victory.

But you know what they say about paybacks!  And in the postseason tournaments, teams playing with revenge have been doing quite well of late – and especially if both teams check in off a win.

Penn State is also 9-1 ATS at home off a home win, and we'll back the Nitts tonight.

Free Pick: Penn State -1 (-110)

This game won't be as high scoring as the public thinks. At most books offshore and in Vegas, the Over is a very popular play at over 70%+ wherever you look. The number seems to look like a "gift" being so low, but we think not.

Cal goes Over a lot more than Under but they have actually have scored below 70 points in three of their last five games. The Under is 16-10 for Maryland this season and 6-1 in the Terps' last seven games and 6-1 in their last seven NCAA Tourney games. The only reason they made the tournament is because they've been playing much better defense down the stretch and we expect coach Gary Williams to have them carry this over to this game.

The Terrapins have been doing much better against the 3-point shot which Cal lives and dies by. In their past five games Maryland is holding opponents to just 30% from beyond the arc, and doing so against some very good perimeter shooting teams (Duke and Wake Forest in two of those three games). Maryland is used to playing teams that are solid 3-point shooters and will be very well prepared. The Bears are not exactly hot coming in shooting 35% and 29% from beyond the arc in their last two games.

We think the total will come in around 130-135. If Maryland wants to win they have to control the tempo and slow this game down.

Free Pick: California-Maryland Under 140½ (-110)

Todd Bozeman led California to the "Big Dance" three times before he resigned in 1996 amid an NCAA investigation. He got the job at Morgan St three years ago and won just 13 games in his first season.

The Bears went 14-2 last year and won the MEAC's regular season title but lost 62-60 to Coppin State in the MEAC championship game, on a driving layup with two seconds left. Coppin State advanced to the NCAA tournament at 16-20 (the most losses by any school to the make the NCAAs) while Morgan St lost 94-62 at Va Tech in the first round of the NIT.

Morgan St won the MEAC regular season title again this year (13-3) and this time, won the tourney with an easy 83-69 win over Norfolk State. Morgan State earned its first-ever NCAA tournament bid as the Bears earned their second MEAC tournament title and first since 1977. Nice story but Morgan St is in way over its head vs the Oklahoma Sooners.

The Sooners, led by Blake Griffin (21.9-4.4), entered their game in Austin vs Texas 25-1 and poised to take over the AP's top spot with a win. However, Griffin went down with a concussion and the Longhorns won 73-68. Griffin wasn't able to play in the team's next game either, a home loss to Kansas.

Griffin has returned but the Sooners lost their first game in the Big 12 tourney, 71-70 to Oklahoma St, and the Sooners enter this game 27-5 overall and a No. 2 seed. The Sooners are not deep but their starting five is capable of making a Final Four run. Griffin's 6-7 older brother Taylor (9.6-6.0) starts alongside his younger brother with three guards. Willie Warren (14.7), a 6-5 freshman, had an excellent season, joined by vets Tony Crocker (9.6) who is 6-6, and Austin Johnson (8.8-3.9 APG). OU's key reserves are the 6-6 Juan Pattillo (7.1-3.9) and guard Cade Davis (5.1).

Morgan St employs a three-guard lineup as well, with Reggie Holmes (16.9-5.5), Jermaine Bolen (9.2-4.9 APG) and Rogers Barnes (8.6). The 6-5 Kately (11.0-5.4) is joined in the frontcourt by the 6-8 freshman Kevin Thompson (8.9-7.0).

The Sooners were well on their way to a No. 1 seed when Blake Griffin got hurt vs Texas on Feb 21 and then lost a tough one-point game to OSU in the Big 12 tourney. Oklahoma, averaging 79.2 PPG and shooting 48.8 percent as a team (sixth-best in the nation), know that a 6-8 freshman (Thompson) is no match for Blake Griffin inside and when he dominates that matchup, the perimeter shots will be wide open.

Bozeman's return to the "Big Dance" ends in the first round. Lay the points with the Sooners.

Free Pick: Oklahoma -16½ (-110)

The Memphis Tigers are disappointed that they did not earn a No. 1 seed and expect them to take out their frustration on the Cal State-Northridge Matadors.

This is not a good matchup for Northridge and I fully expect this one to get ugly early. For all the crap Memphis takes for playing in Conference USA, but the Big West is much worse ranking eight spots lower in the conference rpi rankings.

Despite having three losses on the season, the Tigers average margin of victory is 17 points and they will make an early statement on Thursday and advance on in the tournament with a rout behind Tyreke Evans and Company.

Free Pick: Memphis -19½ (-110)

If you look at season-long numbers, it’s not hard to make a case for Cal here. The Bears have been real overachievers this season. They are the best 3-point shooting squad in the country, hitting 43% from beyond the arc as a team. I’ll give head coach Mike Montgomery all the credit in the world.

Remember, the Bears lost two NBA draft picks from a team that went 6-12 in the Pac-10 last year and lost in the first round of the NIT, but improved to 22 wins overall and 11-7 in conference play this year.

But Cal did not play their best basketball down the stretch. They lost four out of six entering the Big Dance, and won only twice in their final eight non-home games, with one of those wins coming against hapless Oregon. The Bears do not play much defense and they consistently get beaten on the boards; this is a team with limited size and depth inside.

A season-long look at Maryland leaves them squarely in the mediocre category, but the Terps have most assuredly played their best basketball of the season in recent weeks. Maryland will have the best player on the court, unselfish leader Greivis Vasquez, who lit up both North Carolina and Wake Forest in upset wins over the Tar Heels and Demon Deacons.

Maryland had problems with bigger teams all year long – they don’t have much interior size or depth either – but Cal isn’t capable of exploiting that weakness. I’ll take the team playing their best basketball now over the team that peaked a month or two ago.

Free Pick: Maryland +1½ (-110)

For an opposing view CLICK HERE

Maryland came away with a big win over Wake Forest in the ACC tournament and nearly knocked off Duke, but conference games are much different than tournament games and the Terps will have trouble matching up as well against an unfamiliar foe.

Maryland was crushed by Gonzaga, a team that compares favorably with many Pac-10 teams, and the Terps closed the season going 7-10 but managed to win just enough of the key games to get into the dance. Maryland is grossly over-seeded at No. 10 as they were likely one of the last teams in the tournament field, and Cal is the better scoring team and the better defensive team statistically despite playing in a more defense oriented conference.

Both teams lost to Florida State by three points in a common opponent game, but Maryland also had several awful performances this season and went 6-9 straight up in games away from home. California did not end the season ideally with a quick exit from the Pac-10 tournament to USC. Keep in mind however that the tournament that the Trojans won was basically at home for them and Cal played them as tough as anyone on that run. The Bears won at Washington, at Arizona, at Washington State, at UNLV and at Utah this season so there have been several quality wins away from home.

The Terrapins have not had much postseason success since the title run in 2002, and the Pac-10 is generally undervalued in the postseason based on the national fanfare for the ACC and the Big East. Cal's starting lineup is all upperclassmen and this Bears team is ready to make a dent in the tournament.

Free Pick: California -1½ (-110)

For an opposing view CLICK HERE

It's not like this Vermont team hasn't traveled this far this season. They played in Hawaii earlier in the season and went 2-1 straight up and ATS beating George Washington and Colorado.

This is the same squad that played great against an NCAA Tourney bound Maryland team on the road (in one of the toughest venues in the nation), taking them to overtime. They imploded in the overtime but played the Terps tight the whole game.
 
Vermont is led by a solid duo Marqus Blakely and Mike Trimboli. Blakely, a forward, averaged 16 PPG, 9 RPG and had 83 blocks plus shot 60% from the field.  He is a great player with 11 double-doubles this season and his 29 point, 14 rebound and 5 block performance at Pitt earlier this season is a perfect example.

Senior guard Mike Trimboli averaged 16 PPG, 5 APG and compiled 54 steals. To compliment these two guys you have Colin McIntosh, a 6-8 forward who averages 13 PPG and 5 RPG shooting 51% from the field for the Catamounts.
 
The Phoenix have their own firepower from Ryan Tillema nad Mike Scachtner who combine for 28 PPG. The question is can they stop Blakely? Very solid defensive forward Terry Evans will be back from injury and is expected to go tonight for the Phoenix. Wisconsin-GB has been money in the bank at home going 9-1-1 ATS.
 
We''ll take the 6½ points and this should be a tight game. Vermont is a lot better than people think. If it turns into a high-scoring game the Catamounts are built to keep up with the Phoenix tonight. They don't shoot as well from beyond the arc and are playing in a tough building but we think they're road tested enough to definitely keep this within the spread.

Free Pick: Vermont +6½ (-110)

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The West Virginia Mountaineers may come out of the powerful Big East, but they cannot sleep on this very good Dayton Flyers team here that is very capable of an upset.

Dayton is a very good 26-7 straight up this season, and while they went undefeated at home, they still have a winning 8-7 record on the road and at neutral sites. Their defense makes them a dangerous out in this tournament, as the Flyers are limiting their opponents to just 39.7 percent shooting from the field this season, and they are in the top 50 in the entire country in both defensive two-point percentage (44.5) and in defensive three-point percentage (31.7).

That may be the key to this contest,, as West Virginia has had some offensive lapses this season, which is the main reason for their mediocre 23-11 record. Sure, they played a brutal Big East schedule, but they also lost to such non-NCAA Tournament teams as Cincinnati, Davidson and Kentucky, and this Dayton defense they are facing here is actually statistically better then those clubs.

West Virginia has relied on great three-point shooting in recent years, but they rank just 211 in the country from beyond the arc this season at 33.1 percent, so we do not see them pulling away from the pesky Flyers here. Take these big points on a potential upset.

Free Pick: Dayton +8½ (-110)

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Belmont’s hopes for a shot at a bid to the NCAA Tournament came to an end with a loss to East Tennessee in the semifinals of the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. Now the Bruins have their sights set on a C-I-T championship. The first step in that journey will be a difficult one as they face the Evansville Aces.

Belmont’s loss brought an end to three impressive streaks. The Bruins had a string of three consecutive conference tournament titles and NCAA appearances and 10 A-Sun victories in a row. What has to be extremely frustrating for Belmont is the caliber of teams that they played this season only to lose to inferior talent in their conference tournament.

This season, with three starters back, they lost by two at Tennessee and by 14 at Pitt.
I’m guessing Belmont would rather be elsewhere but that’s not the case for EU. And while it’s not the NCAA Tournament or even the NIT, the Purple Aces will gladly take the opportunity to appear in a postseason game for the first time in 10 years.

Evansville gets the nod based on two factors: Home court advantage and a tougher conference schedule. I also believe the letdown factor applies big time to Belmont.

It’s Ace’s high tonight as Evansville covers against Belmont

Free Pick: Evansville -6 (-110)

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This is a tough spot for Northeastern considering the Huskies have to travel halfway across the country to Laramie for this game with the Wyoming Cowboys.

Wyoming won their first conference game against a very good New Mexico team and fell in the second half after playing Utah pretty tight the first half. Wyoming went 8-3 ATS this season on their home court.  The Cowboys went 10-0 in a soft non-conference schedule at home.

Northeastern is coming in losing five of their last seven games and the Huskies were upset in a shocking loss to Towson in the CAA Tourney. Northeastern went 2-3 ATS in their non-conference road games this season, including a couple of tough games against Memphis and Michigan.

Wyoming struggles defensively but they are high-powered with four players scoring in double digits this season. Northeastern is just the opposite: A great defensive team but they aren't too high-powered offensively after guard Matt Janning and forward Manny Adako. They are led by senior guard Brandon Ewing who averages 18.3 PPG.

We will back the Cowboys at home to get the cover against the stingy Northeastern Huskies team.

Free Pick: Wyoming -3 (-110)

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The Clemson Tigers got off to a tremendous start this season, but they sputtered badly down the stretch in the ACC and we feel they are an extremely vulnerable favorite here vs. the Michigan Wolverines.

Clemson went 1-4 both straight up and against the spread in their last five games, and they got knocked out in the first round of the ACC Tournament by a lightly regarded Georgia Tech team. As if that is not bad enough, this team also lost to Virginia a few games before this late skid started.
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The Tigers are known for their pressure defense, but apparently teams have figured out how to solve them and find the open man. Clemson is allowing a hearty 78.4 points per game over the last five games, horrendously allowing those opponents to shoot 49.5 percent from the field.

Michigan finished at 20-13 SU and a nice 15-11-1, 57.7 percent ATS, and before losing in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament to Illinois in a virtual road game, they had gone 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games with the lone ATS loss coming in overtime as an underdog.

Remember that this team did beat Duke and UCLA during the early non-conference portion of the schedule, so team has proven itself somewhat vs. quality competition, which helps negate the fact that this was a down year for the Big Ten.

Finally, do not forget that Michigan is a sparkling 11-3 ATS in post-season play over the last five years, and we look for the Wolverines to improve on that here with an outright upset.

Free Pick: Michigan +5½ (-110)

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I have a simulator play on the Purdue Boilermakers as they face the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship.

My simulator shows a 74 percent probability that Purdue will win this game by seven or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 75-35 for 68 percent since 1997. Play against neutral court teams as a dog in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams hitting 69-73 percent and is a good ball handling team, committing less than 14.5 turnovers per game facing an average pressure defensive team forcing 14.5-17.5 TOPG.

Purdue is 11-3 against the spread when playing against a good team sporting a win percentage of 60 percent and 80 percent after 15 or more games over the last two seasons; and 13-4 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.

Take Purdue.

Free Pick: Purdue -7 (-110)

While we are not fans of the Big Ten this season, we do feel that the Michigan State Spartans are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the conference, and we look for them to prove it with a handy win over the Ohio State Buckeyes today.

The Spartans are now 26-5 this season, but they still have a lot to play for here. If they win the Big Ten Conference Tournament, they should be assured of no worse than a two seed in the NCAA Tournament, whereas if they lose today, they may be in serious danger of dropping to a three seed.

Michigan State is winning with great defense this season, allowing 62.3 points per game on 41.1 percent shooting. This is not to say that they cannot score though, as they are actually one of the highest scoring teams in the normally plodding Big Ten at 72.0 points per game, giving them a nice average margin of victory of +9.7 points overall, including +6.9 points on the road.

On the other hand, while Ohio State is now 21-9 themselves, they have a losing 4-6 record on the road where they are getting outscored by -4.3 points per contest. Also, Michigan State swept the two regular season meetings between these clubs by 11 and nine points respectively, and the Spartans are now 4-1 straight up in the last five head-to-head meetings.

We do feel that Ohio State probably earned an NCAA Tournament berth with their win over Wisconsin yesterday, as a 21-10 mark with a loss today should still be good enough. So with seemingly more to play for, look for Michigan State to win by double-digits.

Free Pick: Michigan State -7½ (-110)

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The Baylor Bears are flying sky high after upsetting Kansas yesterday, but we feel the clock will strike midnight for Cinderella when they face a Texas Longhorns team tonight that has simply dominated them.

Besides, what made the upset yesterday even more shocking is the way that Baylor finished the season. After showing so much promise early in the year, Baylor is now 3-11 against the spread in their last 14 games, and that includes the miracle vs. the Jayhawks. Their defense has been terrible on the road, allowing 78.3 points per game on a generous 46.5 percent shooting, and we do not feel they will simply be able to outscore this Texas team here.

The Longhorns swept the season series, but that is actually nothing new as they have now gone an unbelievable 20-0 straight up vs. Baylor since the 2000-2001 season. This was supposed to be the year that the Bears ended that streak, yet Texas routed them by 16 points at Austin, and perhaps more impressively, they went into Baylor and prevailed by six points.

We see absolutely no reason why the Longhorns should not win this third meeting by at least six points at a neutral site.

Free Pick: Texas -3 (-110)

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Virginia Tech benefited from an ice-cold shooting day from Miami yesterday as Jack McClinton was held to just nine points. The Hokies ended the season on a terrible slide and yesterday's game was a huge for a team that was definitely on shaky bubble footing.

The win likely gets the Hokies a ticket to the Big Dance and hanging with Carolina may not be as much of a priority now to go to the NCAA Tournament. Virginia Tech took the cover when these teams played last week, but they did so by a very slim margin and really were never a serious threat to win the game. The Hokies had a perfect day at the free throw line and limited turnovers in that game but still barely kept the game close playing at home.

North Carolina has some defensive liabilities but Virginia Tech is not the type of team that will be able to exploit those opportunities in this situation. UNC has not been a strong ATS team this season, but neither has Virginia Tech, closing the year 2-7 against the number.

The Hokies are also not a deep team so the minutes in yesterday's game could add up. Va Tech has had some success in this series in recent years which will keep this line in check, and North Carolina has won its opening ACC tournament by 12 or more each of the past three years.

Free Pick: North Carolina -11½ (-110)
 
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As usual, we're hearing virtually every network analyst talk about how tough it is for one team to beat another three times in the same season. This is a complete myth that has zero basis in fact.

The team that wins the first two meetings has a distinct advantage for the third game, and the results are definitive. The winner of the first two games usually wins again. As this is written, the team with the double-revenge motive is 10-28 this season straight up, so it's business as usual, and as usual those "experts" on the networks have gotten it wrong again.

That brings me to today's New Mexico State-Boise State WAC contest, in which the Aggies are looking to beat the Broncos after dropping both regular season meetings. And here's where the double-revenge has a little meaning. If the teams are really closely matched in terms of talent, then I'll agree it's tough for one team to beat the other three times in one campaign. But by no means should you automatically gravitate to the team with the apparent motive, as if the numbers don't jibe, it's hardly enough of an edge on its own.

But with the Aggies and Broncos a virtual wash on the numbers, I think it could be a little bit of an edge here. This is not nearly strong enough to qualify as a service release for me, but I'll lean to New Mexico State to break through today.

Free Pick: New Mexico St. -1½ (-110)
 
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Providence was a little flat in the opening game yesterday but you can blame Cincinnati for that. All week Providence prepped for a critical matchup with the Bearcats that would improve their NCAA Tournament chances, but DePaul pulled out the upset and plans changed.

The Friars had less time to prepare for DePaul and also could have looked past the Blue Demons towards this game. Providence got things together in time to close out the win but it was not their best performance and certainly did not deserve the cover they nearly stole. This should be a much better effort as this is the game they wanted all along since it offers a legitimate ticket to the Big Dance.

Louisville won the Big East and earned the top spot in this tournament but few would argue the Cardinals are the best team in the conference. Louisville drew one of the easiest schedules in the behemoth league, playing Pitt and Connecticut once each at home and the late season win streak did not feature many impressive wins and the best two wins came by very slim margins.

The final score says that Louisville won by 18 against Providence in the regular season but the Friars led at halftime and this will be a much less favorable venue for Louisville. Providence actually won the rebounding battle and had a lot of opportunities in that game but Louisville simply had a hot shooting game. The comfort level for Providence should be strong having played at Madison Square Garden already and playing in the early time slot yesterday while Louisville is more likely focused on the talk of earning a potential #1 seed and could easily look past a pretty solid Providence squad.

Take the points and expect an underwhelming effort from the Cardinals as Providence is by far the superior offensive team.

Free Pick: Providence +10½ (-110)

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ACC Tournament play kicks off today and the Miami Hurricanes (18-11) are matched up with the Virginia Tech Hokies (17-13) in a first round game. Miami comes in on a 3-1 run straight up and 2-2 ATS. Virginia Tech is struggling going 1-6 in their last seven games to finish off the season. Their last three games against Florida State, Duke and North Carolina were all double-digit losses.

This is the wrong time for Virginia Tech to start slumping. Miami has a lot of veteran experience, led by senior guard Jack McClinton (19 PPG 46% 3P FG%). Other seniors play a key role like forward Brain Asbury (8 PPG 5 RPG), guard James Dews (8.5 PPG), Jimmy Graham (6 RPG 35 blocks), a great defensive player and strong on the boards, and guard Lance Hurdle (7 PPG). They all surround junior forward Dwayne Collins (11 PPG 7 RPG). This is an experienced group that made it to the second round of the NCAA Tournament last season falling to Texas.

Virginia Tech knocked off Miami last year in the ACC semifinals so we don't expect them to just lay down to Miami today; this will be a dogfight. The Hokies are a younger team but they also have a lot of experience. They earned a bid to the NIT tournament last year and made it to the quarterfinals. Tech relies on the three and they are shooting below 30% from long range in four of their last six games. If they don't start hitting some big shots early today that can be a problem and hurt their confidence early. It's pretty simple, if Tech isn't hitting the three they aren't going to stand a chance today.

It's hard to beat any team twice in your conference in the same season and we don't see it happening today for Virginia Tech. They are on a 2-7 ATS slump right now. McClinton is a double threat from the perimeter and driving to the hoop creating fouls and getting to the line and if the other role players around him step up today Miami will advance today.

Free Pick: Miami -3 (-110)

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The Crimson Tide of Alabama take on the Vanderbilt Commodores in an SEC First Round game at the Times Forum in Tampa tonight knowing that they are 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS versus No. 4-8 seeds in this tourney.

In addition, Vandy is just 1-12 SU and 2-11 ATS in this event when playing off an ATS win of more than three points in its last game.

'Bama also comes in seeking revenge from a 79-74 loss in Nashville on Feb 5.  In that game, the Tide saw a 43-36 halftime lead evaporate when the Commodores went on a 17-2 run in the second half.

Look for Alabama to improve to 8-3 ATS in this series in games in which Vanderbilt is off a win here this evening.

Free Pick: Alabama +2½ (-110)

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The Arizona State Sun Devils swept both regular season meetings with the Arizona Wildcats, and considering the way both clubs played the season, we look for Arizona State to make it a hat trick this afternoon.

In fact, the Sun Devils have now won the last four meetings with the Wildcats after Arizona dominated this head-to-head series for so long prior to that. State finished at 22-8 this season, and they were also very friendly to their supporters, going 16-10, 61.5 percent against the spread. The Devils are ranked 15 in the Pomeroy Ratings, and they are very well balanced, ranking 11 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 33 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Conversely, Arizona was a disappointment this year going just 19-12. Yes, they were playing very well for a while, but their second loss to Arizona State started them on a tailspin, as they lost four of their last five games beginning with that contest with the lone win coming at home vs. a Stanford team that struggled on the road this season.

Most alarming here is that fact that the Wildcats were just 2-9 straight up on the road while losing by an average of -7.3 points. Look for Arizona State to win by at least that amount here.

Free Pick: Arizona State -4 (-110)

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This game between the Texas A&M Aggies and the Texas Tech Red Raiders seems like a mismatch on paper, and with Texas A&M needing a couple of wins in this Big 12 Tournament to assure themselves an NCAA Tournament bid, we are anticipating an emphatic victory.

The Aggies went 23-8 during the regular season, but they were a modest 9-7 in the conference, so they would be best served by advancing in this tourney to lock up a berth to the Big Dance. They certainly treated there supporters well this season, going 15-8 against the spread, including a sweep both straight up and ATS in two meetings with Texas Tech. The Aggies were also 9-4 ATS on the road, which will serve them well at this neutral site in Oklahoma City.

On the other hand, the Red Raiders finished at just 13-18 overall and a woeful 3-13 inside the conference, and they burned a lot of money to the tune of a 9-14-1 ATS record. Perhaps worst of all for the Red Raiders here though is the fact that they finished 0-11 SU on the road while losing those contests by an average of -13.0 points per game.

We do not expect them to suddenly become competitive away from home tonight vs. a team that has already beaten them twice this year.

Free Pick: Texas A&M -6½ (-110)

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The Big 12 Conference Tournament begins tonight at the Ford Center in Oklahoma City with a first round contest between the Iowa State Cyclones and the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

Iowa State is playing out the season with a 15-16 SU record the only advantage for them is the Big 12 Tournament allows all its teams to participate; otherwise, they would be watching from home. The Cyclones are 9-16 ATS overall on the season and they have struggled against winning teams posting a record of 1-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season. Iowa State is 4-12 SU and 4-11 ATS when facing conference opponents this season averaging 62.3 points per game and allowing 69.9 points per game.

They are coming in off a SU win over Texas Tech in their last game 78 to 76 as a 4-point home favorite and that win snapped a two-game losing skid.

Their opponent tonight is fighting for a bid to the Big Dance; most believe they need a win here tonight to assure themselves of an invitation. This Cowboys team has caught fire at the right time winning six of their last seven SU (including seven straight ATS wins) their only loss coming in their last game at Norman where the Sooners defeated them 82 to 78 as a nine-point home favorite.

If the Cowboys can get past this Cyclones team tonight they will have a rematch with in-state rival Oklahoma in the next round, so this game is of the utmost importance to their NCAA Tournament aspirations. Our numbers suggest the Cowboys advance and get the ATS win in tonight’s contest. We also see that Iowa State is 0-12 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive Over’s the last two seasons and 0-7 ATS revenging a road loss of 10 points or more this season.

Lay the chalk with the Cowboys as they roll past an Iowa State team that is overmatched and not interested, just wanting to get this season over with and Oklahoma State will oblige.

Projected Final Score: Cowboys-78 Cyclones-55

Free Pick: Oklahoma St -10 (-110)

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