NCAAF Betting Articles

We are in early July, but the NCAA Football season will be here before you know it, and with BCS Championship Future Odds already up at a couple of books, we felt this was a good time to look for some value before the prices drop.

Now the last two years saw Ohio State go to the Championship Game, and each time the Buckeyes were wiped out by an SEC opponent. Well, we do not expect a return trip for OSU this season, primarily because they have what we feel is an automatic loss on their schedule in a non-conference road contest at USC, who could very well go undefeated going into the BCS title game.

There is no value on the Trojans at 7/2 odds to win it all however, so the key to caching a ticket should be correctly predicting who their opponent will be. Well, while we do not expect Ohio State to three-peat, we do agree with the large majority of experts that the SEC is still the best conference in the country from top to bottom, and with four SEC teams among the top 11 future favorites, we do expect the conference to be represented again in the Championship Game for the third straight year.

But now, the question becomes which team? Well, we feel the odds are such that it may be prudent to place future bets on two of the top four rated SEC teams. Here is our analysis of the top four SEC contenders (BCS future odds in parenthesis):

Florida (7/1) - The Gators return arguably the best player in college football in Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Tim Tebow, their running game should be improved as they are now very deep at that position and the young defense should only get better with the valuable experience gained last season. The fact that the toughest game on their schedule may be the annual Cocktail Party vs. Georgia on a neutral field, and Florida deserves to be the favorites to win the SEC. At these odds, we recommend placing two units on Florida to win the BCS Championship.

Georgia (8/1) - While Florida is favored by the oddsmakers, the general public seems to favor the Bulldogs due to all of their returning players, most notably Matt Stafford and Knowshon Moreno. However, while Florida is on a neutral site, Georgia has the misfortune of playing both LSU and Auburn on the road, and they also have an intriguing non-conference road tilt at Arizona State. While Georgia may have the most talent in the conference, we do not see how that can avoid having at least two losses with that schedule.

LSU (20/1) - We felt that the Tigers were the best team in the country last year, and they justified that belief by winning the national title. However, we feel they are just the third or fourth best team in their conference this year, as we expect the offense to have a tough time filling the void left by departing quarterback Ryan Perrilloux. The defense should be stingy as usual, but then again, all four of the top SEC contenders have excellent defenses, and the Tigers may have the worst offense of the bunch for the time being. It sure does not help having to face Florida and Auburn on the road.

Auburn (25/1) - Now this Tigers team, as opposed to the one from Baton Rouge, may be the national dark horse that offers the most value. They too return a lot of players from last season, and their defense just may be the best in the conference and one of the best in the nation this year. Most importantly, they do not have any road game vs. upper echelon SEC teams, as they get Georgia and LSU at home and they do not face Florida! The biggest negative is that they have a brutal non-conference road game with West Virginia on the schedule, but if the Tigers could win the SEC Championship, a distinct possibility given the conference schedule, the BCS may have no choice but to match them up with the Trojans for the title. Auburn is certainly worth a one-unit flyer to win the BCS Championship at this big price.

So in a nutshell, we recommend a play of two units on Florida at 7/1 and one unit on Auburn at 25/1. Then, if one of these clubs ends up matched with USC for all the marbles, perhaps a hedge to either win back the original stake or to lock in a small profit if our future play loses and a big profit if it wins is in order. Or, in the best case scenario, hopefully one of our teams could end up matched with some other team and actually be favored in the BCS game, in which case we would probably let Florida ride or hedge Auburn for just enough to win our original stake.

The black sheep of the BCS major conferences came within an eyelash of redemption last year. Then the West Virginia Mountaineers blew a title shot in the regular season finale. Now their coach is gone. What is the Big East to do?

Not panicking would be a good start. There’s still hope for the Mountaineers to win the BCS championship, and the Big East has some compelling longshot candidates up its sleeve who can beat the NCAAF betting odds this season. Let’s give these eight teams a look-see; Over/Unders for wins are included.

West Virginia Mountaineers (9.5)
Bill Stewart gets to hit the ground running in his first season taking over for Rich Rodriguez as head coach. He has the support of his players, who upset Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. But WVU has lost a lot of talent aside from returning QB Pat White. I see 9-3 and a bowl loss on the horizon; I don’t see the Mountaineers coming close to cashing in at 15-1 to win the whole shooting match.

South Florida Bulls (9.0)
Not to be outdone by West Virginia, USF reached the dreaded No. 2 last year before dropping three in a row. The Bulls have nonetheless won nine games each of the past two seasons and are arguably better now than ever. I like them as a 50-1 BCS title longshot.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7.5)
The schedule is a bit on the tough side with Fresno State in the opener, and RB Ray Rice will be missed. But Rutgers still has an awesome defense. Stud receivers Tiquan Underwood and Kenny Britt should deliver enough offense to get eight wins for the Knights. Just don’t expect a title at 75-1 odds.

Cincinnati Bearcats (7.0)
The ‘Cats cracked the Top 25 last year and hit No. 15 on the Fremeau efficiency charts. They should at least come close to their 10-3 record with a forgiving schedule, even without QB Ben Mauk getting one more year of eligibility. A possible very longshot for the title at 100-1.

Connecticut Huskies (6.5)
The Huskies outperformed expectations by going 9-4 (7-4 ATS) in 2007. They should come back down to earth this season. The UConn defense is good, but QB Tyler Lorenzen doesn’t have anyone of note to pass the ball to. At 150-1 to win the title, you might as well buy a lottery ticket.

Louisville Cardinals (6.5)
Steve Kragthorpe is already on notice after failing to guide the Cards to a bowl game in his first year filling Bobby Petrino’s shoes. He’ll try to do better without QB Brian Brohm and many of his key offensive starters from 2007. The schedule is soft enough for seven wins, but this program is reeling. Stay away from them at 100-1 to win the BCS.

Pittsburgh Panthers (6.5)
We’ve been waiting for Pitt to finally have that breakthrough season under coach Dave Wannstedt. The talent is there, with a healthy combination of returning starters and a top recruiting class. Pitt has a tougher schedule, but is in a much stronger position than Louisville to win at least seven games and go bowling again. Forget about any BCS title hopes at 100-1.

Syracuse Orange (2.5)
This program has fallen flat under coach Greg Robinson, and his hopes for a job-saving bowl invite were dashed when WR Mike Williams was suspended. They should still beat Akron and Northeastern; the key for the Orange going over will be their Aug. 30 season opener at Northwestern. I don’t see Syracuse winning that one after finishing No. 110 last year out of 119 Division I teams in efficiency.

The dog days of summer have arrived. Two months before the start of college football season; two months to spend sifting through college football previews, looking for the teams with the best chance to blow away the betting odds and inject your wallet with a transfusion of cash.

In my previous article back in May, I identified five clubs with value potential to win the BCS championship. This time, the futures market is not our focus. Instead, we’re broadening our search and looking for Top 10-quality teams who will succeed against the spread during the 2008 campaign. The single-game matchup is the bread and butter of sports gambling; the futures market is significantly more “exotic” and not for everyone.

Consider the Clemson Tigers, for example. They are about as dark as a dark horse title contender can get. We had them among our BCS fivesome at 22-1 in May, and they’re currently in the Top 10 on the odds list at 20-1. How realistic are Clemson’s title hopes, though? Marginal at best. But this is a team that went 9-4 (6-6 ATS) last year and is in a strong position to bag some cash in 2008.

We want to do better than that: We want to identify this year’s Kansas Jayhawks. They pounded the pay window last year at 11-1 ATS and upset Virginia Tech at the Orange Bowl, even though the Jayhawks were No. 19 in team efficiency (as measured by the Fremeau Index) in Division I. The betting public questioned this program all season long, all the way to the end, and they kept putting money in the pockets of sharp handicappers.

We’re not predicting another 11-1 ATS season, but these two teams jump out as Chance’s top dark horse picks to crack the Top 10 of the BCS rankings and make a mint along the way.

Oregon Ducks (60-1)
The Ducks made it all the way to No. 2 on the BCS computers last year, then fell apart after QB Dennis Dixon was injured and dropped their last three regular-season games. Very little is expected of Oregon this year with Dixon moving on to the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is where handicappers cackle with glee like mad scientists.

The Ducks were much more than just Dixon last year. Even with that late-season collapse, Oregon finished No. 3 in team efficiency behind only the national champions from LSU and the Pac-10 champions from USC. The Trojans (3-1 favorites to win the title this year) will hog what precious little spotlight the Pac-10 already gets. Meanwhile, Oregon’s anonymous offensive line and the return of senior RB Jeremiah Johnson will smooth the transition from Dixon to projected (and talented) starting QB Nate Costa.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (100-1)
It’s not easy to bleed away over 100 years of public adoration, but the Irish did it last year by going 3-9 (5-7 ATS), losing the first five games of the season in heroically ugly fashion. Head coach Charlie Weis went from genius to pariah in one fell swoop. Nowhere to go but up, as they say.

Last year’s squad was paper-thin after the departure of 11 players to the NFL. There will be consistency this year with the return of 17 starters; the offensive line figures to take a step forward, making life easier for sophomore QB Jimmy Clausen, and the early-season schedule is soft enough to give the Irish an opportunity to get a running start toward nine wins.

We have lived through 10 college football seasons under the Bowl Championship Series banner, and 10 very strong programs have won the national title. It seems inevitable that one of the elite teams will be carting off the AFCA National Championship Trophy in January. That’s the one with the big crystal football on top.

AFCA stands for the American Football Coaches Association, the same people behind the USA Today Coaches Poll. The fact that coaches have a say in who will win the national championship makes it even less likely that an upstart team will be given its due respect and a chance at the No. 1 or No. 2 spot in the rankings. Value-conscious bettors will instead stick with the cluster of familiar big-name programs, looking for one at a decent price. These five in particular have caught my eye.

LSU Tigers (12-1)
The Tigers have finally cut ties with Ryan Perrilloux, the talented quarterback with the litany of problems off the field. It appears he’ll be replaced by redshirt freshman Jarrett Lee over Harvard transfer Andrew Hatch. The Tigers have to make it through a very tough SEC schedule that includes road trips to Auburn and Florida. But the coaches have been very kind to the SEC, allowing the Tigers into the 2008 BCS championship game with an 11-2 record. Two losses could be enough to make the 2009 final.

West Virginia Mountaineers (25-1)
The Mountaineers appear yet again to be the class of the Big East, and would have played in the championship game if it hadn’t been for their unfathomable 13-9 loss to Pitt in Week 14. Head coach Bill Stewart takes on a powerhouse program left behind by Rich Rodriguez, with a Heisman candidate in QB Pat White and one of the strongest offensive lines in the nation.

Texas Longhorns (30-1)
Mack Brown is one of the finest coaches of this or any era. He knows talent when he sees it – in both players and other coaches, which is why the arrival of new defensive co-ordinator Will Muschamp is being met with enthusiasm. Muschamp led the Auburn defense to glory during his two years as the Tigers co-ordinator; if he whips the Longhorns into shape quickly enough, QB Colt McCoy (65.1 percent completion rate in 2007) has the arm to take Texas the rest of the way.

Oklahoma Sooners (6-1)
There are four teams tied at 6-1 as the second favorites to win the national championship – USC is the top dog at 3-1. In this crowded field, the Sooners have the easiest schedule coming out of the Big 12 without having to play at Texas or Texas Tech. Quarterback Sam Bradford is another Heisman candidate, also playing behind a dominant offensive line.  How well Bradford handles the switch to a no-huddle offense will determine Oklahoma’s title chances this year.

Clemson Tigers (22-1)
This is the outsider pick of the five, as Clemson hasn’t been a national title threat during the BCS decade. But Terry Bowden has gradually built this program up to the point where it has to be considered the ACC favorite for 2008. Clemson was No. 11 in team efficiency last year and should only improve as QB Cullen Harper enters his senior year and blue-chip freshman DaQuan Bowers starts at defensive end. It won’t be easy, but Clemson’s schedule is forgiving enough to make an 11-1 season a real possibility.

College football bettors and fans have had two months to absorb one of the busiest winters the sport has seen in some time. Coaches have changed teams. Quarterbacks have changed teams. Underclassmen have declared for the NFL Draft. And for just the second time since 2003, it looks like the USC Trojans are not the favorites heading into spring practice.

The last time the Trojans were not the preseason No. 1 in the polls was 2006, the year Heisman Trophy winner Matt Leinart’s college career ended and his NFL career began. USC went on to post identical records of 11-2 (7-6 against the spread) in two seasons with John David Booty at the controls. Now Booty is on his way to the big leagues, although with much less fanfare than Leinart.

Nobody’s talking about the Trojans going undefeated this year. But if the betting public thinks the QB well has run dry in Los Angeles, they are once again sadly mistaken. Pete Carroll’s stellar program has three more young arms on display: Mark Sanchez, Arkansas transfer Mitch Mustain, and blue-chipper Aaron Corp. One or more of these men will lead the Trojans to victory in 2008 and beyond.

As the Internet age rolls on and Carroll’s team keeps winning titles and major bowl games, it’s getting harder and harder to blame “East Coast bias” for the relative lack of respect the Pacific-10 Conference gets. But it can’t be denied that the SEC is the premier conference in college football. There are three legitimate title contenders coming out of the SEC, and the reigning champions from LSU might be the weakest of the three.

The Georgia Bulldogs are on a mission after the “snub” that put the Tigers in the BCS title game and the Dawgs in the Sugar Bowl. Mark Richt has assembled a brilliant recruiting class to support a Georgia team that is losing just five starters from last year. According to Richt, Georgia’s 42-30 win over the Florida Gators (-7) in Week 9 changed the team’s “persona” and made it attractive to recruits.

The Gators will have something to say about that. Their young defense will be much more ready for prime time in 2008, and Urban Meyer has five Parade All-Americans ready to join them as part of what he considers his best recruiting class since leaving Utah after the 2004 campaign. The new and improved Florida defense should make reigning Heisman winner Tim Tebow’s job a lot easier this year.

With Georgia and Florida earning gold stars on Signing Day, the Tigers find themselves playing catch-up in the SEC. The defense will have to overcome the departures of tackle Glenn Dorsey, safety Craig Steltz, cornerbacks Chevis Jackson and Jonathan Zenon, and co-ordinator Bo Pelini, now the new head coach at Nebraska. Miles had a strong recruiting class this year, but not nearly as strong as his rivals, and not enough to fill all these holes.

Meanwhile, QB Ryan Perrilloux and his family continue to frustrate coach Les Miles; Perrilloux was suspended indefinitely last month for an undisclosed violation. With Matt Flynn hoping to sneak into the NFL as a late-round project, Miles is left with Harvard transfer Andrew Hatch and redshirt Jarrett Lee to work with (for now) during the spring session.

Getting out of the double-tough SEC will be a chore for any of these three teams. But the Tigers appear to be on the wane, and how’s this for an omen: Their season opener is at home against Appalachian State. Curiouser and curiouser.

It doesn’t have the same cachet as professional entry drafts, or even college basketball recruiting, but Signing Day is still a festive occasion for NCAA football programs. And according to the folks at Scout.com, the Alabama Crimson Tide have the most reason to celebrate.

Wednesday was a red-letter day for the Crimson Tide. They inked receiver Julius Jones out of nearby Foley High School to a letter of intent; Jones is 6-foot-4, 215 pounds and is being compared favorably to Michael Irvin. Jones adds immensely to what was already a solid haul of freshmen featuring the top offensive line prospect in the nation, Tyler Love, and top athlete Burton Scott. That’s good enough for the No. 1 spot on Scout.com’s Class of 2008 rankings.

This is outstanding news for a Tide team that went 7-6 straight up and an appalling 3-9 against the spread coming out of the brutal SEC West. Although Alabama played well enough to rank No. 27 on the FBS efficiency list, the Tide had to settle for the Independence Bowl in coach Nick Saban’s return to college. Adding Jones (and possibly Scott) to the receiving corps gives senior QB John Parker Wilson a chance to win some more of those close games, and perhaps a Heisman as well.

In case anyone is wondering why Charlie Weis is still coaching the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Wednesday’s list of 23 commitments sheds some light on the story. Notre Dame’s future looks bright with a deep and talented freshmen class led by No. 2 QB prospect Dayne Crist and some much-needed help on both the offensive and defensive lines.

Weis went from hero to goat in South Bend in just one year – a year without QB Brady Quinn, among other notables from the 2006 squad. Notre Dame went 3-9 SU and 5-7 ATS, starting the season with five humiliating losses in a row. Despite those mounting losses, Weis kept collecting informal commitments from quality prospects. Crist will push Jimmy Clausen for the starting QB role; perhaps more importantly, whoever wins the job gets to throw to freshmen like Michael Floyd and Deion Walker.

The Miami Hurricanes wrap up the Top 3 recruiters with an impressive display of first-year defenders, including the best trio of outside linebacker prospects in the country – Arthur Brown being the best of the best. He’s the nephew of former Detroit Lions nose tackle Lawrence Pete, and hits with the same intensity at 6-foot-1 and 210 pounds.

Like Alabama, the ‘Canes had a new coach in 2007: former defensive coordinator Randy Shannon. Miami was a preseason pick to retake the ACC Coastal, but that proved to be too much too soon as the Hurricanes went 5-7 (4-8 ATS) to finish fifth in the division. But Miami did beat Florida State as well as Texas A&M; adding Brown and friends to the mix should push this program back into the ACC spotlight for real this time.

The recruiting process is such a critical part of college football, but this is the kind of front-office work that the casual fan pays little attention to – they expect immediate results from a marquee coach like Saban. Those expectations will be heaped upon Paul Johnson with Georgia Tech and Bobby Petrino with Arkansas. Yet neither of these teams has a definite starting quarterback for 2008.

Yellow Jackets QB Taylor Bennett will not be returning to the club, as Johnson announced his release Wednesday. Bennett had some struggles in his first full year with seven touchdown passes and nine interceptions, but as a pocket passer, it’s Bennett’s style that makes him a bad fit in Johnson’s Navy-tested option offense.

Drop-back passer Ryan Mallett also heard the footsteps of Rich Rodriguez arriving in Michigan, and transferred from the Wolverines to the Razorbacks to play for Petrino. Mallett made a splash in Ann Arbor last year with seven TDs and five picks in place of the injured Chad Henne. The Hawgs are petitioning the NCAA to waive the one-year waiting period for Mallett to be eligible to play for Arkansas. However, Arkansas athletic director Jeff Long didn’t seem too optimistic about Mallett’s chances, and it may be just as well that Casey Dick (18 TDs, 10 INTs) is the one to take the abuse that Petrino’s rebuilding offense is likely to suffer in 2008.

For a while, it looked like the BCS Championship Game was going to be a microcosm of the entire 2007 college football season: the No. 2 team getting pounded. But the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes couldn’t keep their feet on the throats of the LSU Tigers.

After spotting the Buckeyes 10 points, the Tigers marched down the field five straight times, scoring four touchdowns and a field goal to put the title out of OSU’s reach. Final score: LSU 38, Ohio State 24. The Tigers cashed in as 3½-point faves and the two teams blew out the posted total of 45½.

LSU was the last team standing in a season of chaos for the top programs in the nation. Underdogs had a slight advantage – albeit unprofitable – at 360-335-10 against the spread including the bowl season, or 51.8 percent. But the bigger they were, the harder they fell.

Preseason No. 1 USC lost to Stanford as a 39-point chalk. Michigan lost to Division I-AA (that is, Football Championship Subdivision) Appalachian State in a game that didn’t even draw a betting line. West Virginia coughed up a shot at the title in Week 14, courtesy of Pitt (+28½). That upset pushed two-loss LSU into the championship game.

This may be the Year of the Upset, but with so many games spread across Division I (sorry, Football Bowl Subdivision), it’s not a surprise that the 2007 season didn’t produce one solid trend to apply to the full schedule. Home teams were 351-350-10 ATS; the under did better at 361-340, but at 51.5 percent was still below the profit threshold of 52.38 percent on the standard -110 betting line. The popular “home dog” split was the only profitable play at 125-112-5 ATS (52.74 percent).

The big story of the 2007 campaign, at least for handicappers, was the amazing rise of the Kansas Jayhawks. They rattled off 11 straight victories at 10-1 ATS to grab the deadly No. 2 spot in the polls. Then Kansas lost 36-28 to Missouri (+1), and it was assumed the Jayhawks had finally met their match. Cue yet another major upset: Kansas held off Virginia Tech 24-21 to win the Orange Bowl as a 3-point puppy and finish the season at an FBS-best 11-1 ATS.

Now that the beans have been counted, bettors are already looking forward to the 2008 season. In the very early futures market, LSU is hanging around at 10-1, but there are five teams ahead of the Tigers on the odds list. The USC Trojans lead the way at 3-1. Florida, with Heisman winning QB Tim Tebow in tow, is one of three clubs at 6-1. Ohio State and Georgia are the others.

The coaching carousel has yet to stop spinning. There will be at least a handful of NFL jobs available in short order; Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank is already desperately trying to land a top name to replace Bobby Petrino. Wednesday’s rumor mill suggested USC coach Pete Carroll was both interested and not interested in the job. If Carroll does go back to the pros after a wildly successful seven-year absence, the Trojans are in for a serious downgrade.

The importance of the head coach to a college football team cannot be understated. Hawaii is already a mess after the departure of June Jones for the Conference USA and 1-11 Southern Methodist. Jones said the difference between his office at SMU and at Hawaii was like the difference between the NFL and a Pop Warner team.

Jones joins a long list of name coaches changing employers this year. Petrino, having left Louisville just last year, signed on with Arkansas. Rich Rodriguez abandoned West Virginia for Michigan to replace Lloyd Carr. Paul Johnson will find recruiting much easier at Georgia Tech than it was at Navy. Mike Sherman takes over for Dennis Franchione at Texas A&M, and Bill Callahan is out after a dismal year at Nebraska; Bo Pelini hopes to make the transition from LSU defensive coordinator to Cornhuskers’ head coach a smooth one.

We hope your offseason will be at least as pleasant as his.

Looking at the past five title games, the underdog at the open has won all five. The big money on Monday’s OSU-LSU matchup, not surprisingly, has fallen on the Buckeyes. The betting line on this contest has dropped from as high as six points at the open to as low as 3½ points; Ohio State’s payout on the moneyline has dipped from +175 to +150.

As the chalk dries up on LSU, the betting public continues to pound the hyped favorites. Roughly three out of every four bettors were on the Tigers at press time, according to trend reports. They are risking a lot less money and bringing a lot less knowledge to the table, and their numbers are swelling due to the interest in the championship game. No wonder the underdogs have done so well in this situation.

The casual bettor is unlikely to correctly factor the importance of the amount of time in between games for these two clubs. OSU hasn’t played since Nov. 17, and the Tigers’ season finale was Dec. 1. The BCS rankings announcing the OSU-LSU title game came out on Dec. 2. That’s well over a month of preparation time for Buckeyes coach Jim Tressel and Tigers coach Les Miles; Tressel owns 12 various Coach of the Year awards and is considered one of the best in the game. Miles is no slouch, but people are still buzzing over some of the unusual decisions he made this year, especially in the 30-24 win over Auburn.

Having said all that, it appears Miles has saved his best for last. LSU offensive coordinator Gary Crowton told the Associated Press that he’s scripted about 10 plays for QB Ryan Perrilloux. He was the starter for the Tigers’ SEC title clincher over Tennessee, throwing for a TD and rushing for a 2-point conversion in a 21-14 victory. Perrilloux has eight TD passes and just two picks in limited action this season.

Incumbent starter Matt Flynn (17 TDs, 10 INTs) missed the season finale with a shoulder injury. Perrilloux himself was playing with a finger injury; both should be fully healthy Monday. Between Flynn’s assorted bruises and Perrilloux’ off-field behavior, we haven’t seen Miles make the most use out of this two-headed monster. All indications suggest that will change against Ohio State. The Flynn-Perrilloux combo is getting talked about in the same breath as Florida’s title-winning tandem of Chris Leak and Tim Tebow. They, of course, upset the Buckeyes 41-17 last year.

The extra rest over the holidays was arguably even more important for defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey. The 2007 Bronko Nagurski Trophy winner suffered a knee strain against Auburn; he was limited in practices afterward and was less than his explosive self over the last three games. Dorsey leads an LSU defensive front that should be able to put the pressure on Buckeyes QB Todd Boeckman (23 TDs, 12 INTs), even against the outstanding OSU offensive line.

All these bowl-season variables make it difficult enough for handicappers to take what they’ve learned over the course of the season and apply it to Monday’s matchup. Pushing the easy button and taking the underdog is understandable; however, there’s another wrinkle for the title game: New Orleans. It’s hard to beat the atmosphere at Tiger Stadium, but the Superdome does have room for 70,000 screaming LSU fans. The Tigers were 6½-point puppies in 2003 when they beat Oklahoma 21-14 in the Big Easy for a share of the championship.

Kick off is at 8:00 p.m. Eastern of FOX. The posted total is 47.5, down from 49 at the open.

Oddsmaker Ken White likes a favorite and two dogs in three of the four BCS non-championship bowl games; he has no opinion on the fourth because he thinks the number is on the money.

White, chief operating officer at Las Vegas Sports Consultants, noted these are his personal picks and not necessarily those of the company. LVSC sets lines for Silver State sports books.

Here are White's takes on the Jan. 1 Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl; the Jan. 2 Fiesta Bowl and the Jan. 3 Orange Bowl.

ROSE BOWL -- It probably isn't too tough to guess which favorite White prefers.

He touted Southern Cal all fall and had the Trojans tied with Oklahoma for No. 1 in the nation when the regular season ended. You don't think White would switch horses to an an inferior Illinois team at this point in the season, do you?

LVSC sent Southern Cal out as a two touchdown favorite and the number has remained solid, though a few 13 1/2s have been seen around town. Various books have the total posted at 50, 50 1/2 and 51.

"This game is a complete mismatch," the oddsmaker declared.

"You're talking about a best-in-the-country team with a track record against a team that won't have played in 44 days, a team that hasn't been to a bowl game since 2001, going to USC's backyard where 75,000 of the 100,000 people there will be cheering for the Trojans.

"Illinois has had a good season and Ron Zook is putting a solid program together, but it hasn't reached the point where Illinois belongs in a bowl against USC. Illinois will come to play and I think they'll play a good game. But it's up to USC to decide how it's going to be cemented.

"You better believe Pete Carroll will have his guys ready."

White notes the Illini only improved three points in LVSC's Power Ratings during the season.

"Illinois beat Ohio State and the biggest plus was the won at Columbus, but otherwise, what did they really do? And they lost at Iowa."

White says Illinois quarterback Juice Williams has had a huge turnaround from last season and calls him "a good athlete," but notes Williams still isn't John David Booty.

SUGAR BOWL

White has softened his stance on Hawaii to the point where he's leaning toward the Warriors in its New Year's Day Sugar Bowl match against Georgia from the powerful SEC.

Hawaii is America's only unbeaten club and will be triyng to end the campaign 13-0.

LVSC sent the Bulldogs out as an 8-point pick, the number steamed to 11 and then hit reverse. Thursday night 7 1/2, 8s and 8 1/2s could be found around the valley.

Bookmakers note that heavy inyerest in the Sugar Bowl has made it the most wagered-upon bowl in town.

"Georgia definitely is tough," White said. "The Bulldogs won their last six games straight, including four in the SEC.

"But Hawaii is a strong play. They certainly should cover. The Warriors are dangerous."

White believes one key will be how Hawaii stops the run.

He also thinks Warriors quarterback Colt Brennan will throw so many passes he'll wear the Georgia defense down.

White anticipates a high-scoring affair and the total to go OVER.

"This is a very intriguing game," he said.

FIESTA BOWL -- The other pooch in White's New Year's doghouse is West Virginia, a 7 1/2 to 8-point underdog to mighty Oklahoma in the Jan. 2 Fiesta Bowl.

The Mountaineers absorbed a tough loss to Pitt in their regular-season finale to kiss their title hopes good-bye.

"The spotlight has been on this game because, of course, of the departure of Rich Rodriguez from West Virgina to take over at Michigan," White said.

"I think a lot of what happens in this game will come down to how West Virginia reacts to Rodriguez leaving. Right now I think the best thing for the Mountaineers would be for Rodriguez not to be anywhere around.

"These kids will play for any (West Virginia) coach who takes over.

"Right now I think the number is overinflated."

ORANGE BOWL -- White figures by now Kansas players are sick of hearing how Missouri is the team that should be playing in a major bowl instead of the Jayhawks. He reckons many figure the Tigers have more motivation at the moment than favored Virginia Tech, but claims the Hokies really are the ones with Big Mo.

"They've been playing for an entire campus all year," White said, noting how Viginia Tech won its first ACC title, while Kansas blew its chance for a BCS Championship berth by losing to Missouri in the year's final regular-season Big 12 game.

"I think 3 1/2 is a very good number."

One university is still recovering from a campus tragedy that rocked the nation, the other is trying to overcome the stigma of being just a basketball school. Tonight's 74th Orange Bowl should be a dandy as Frank Beamer and the No. 3 Virginia Tech Hokies meet Mark Mangino's No. 8 Kansas Jayhawks.  TV coverage from Dolphins Stadium in Miami begins at 8:00 p.m. (ET).

The rise of the BCS Championship Bowl has taken quite a chunk out of the traditional “Big Four” college football games. But the Rose, Sugar, Fiesta and Orange Bowls have nonetheless continued to rake in considerable numbers as the betting season reaches its crescendo. This year’s intriguing matchups should be no different.

Rose Bowl: No. 13 Illinois vs. No. 6 Southern California (-13½, 49½)
Tuesday, Jan 1, 4:30 pm (ET) ABC
We’ve been hitting the Big Ten over the head nearly all year. Who got into the Rose Bowl this year? Michigan? Penn State? Wisconsin? No, it was the Fighting Illini taking the No. 2 seed in the conference at 9-3 overall (7-4 against the spread). This is not the level of opponent fans wanted to see face the mighty USC Trojans – that pointspread is the largest of the entire bowl season.

The Trojans often get dismissed this time of year as an overvalued public team. Then they go out and win anyway; USC won and covered three of the last four bowl games. And the Trojans remain the big fan favorites against Illinois, even after going through a spate of injuries and losses to Oregon and (ugh) Stanford. We’ve heard a lot about QB John David Booty, but being healthy once again on defense is the key for the Trojans here. They’ll be able to shut down Illinois’ exceptional running game.

Sugar Bowl: No. 10 Hawaii vs. No. 4 Georgia (-7½, 68½)
Tuesday, Jan 1, 8:30 pm (ET) FOX
The Warriors definitely deserve to be in a BCS bowl. What’s the point of having low major teams eligible to play in one if an undefeated season isn’t good enough? But ranking Hawaii up there in quality with “the big boys” takes a certain leap of faith. The stats certainly don’t hold it up: Hawaii is No. 42 in the nation in Game Efficiency, according to Brian Fremeau’s numbers based on the outcomes of legitimate drives (no kneel-downs included, for instance).

The counter argument is that Hawaii hasn’t been given a true test this season, with the WAC taking a step back in talent this year. The Warriors will certainly get one at the Superdome against the Georgia Bulldogs. They’re ranked No. 9 in efficiency coming out of the SEC, and they don’t feel too good about being passed over for LSU for a spot in the national championship game. Georgia is expected to take this one in a walkover.

Fiesta Bowl: No. 9 West Virginia vs. No. 3 Oklahoma (-7½, 63½)
Wednesday, Jan 2, 8:00 pm (ET) FOX
If you’re willing to ignore the departure of Mountaineers coach and savoir Rich Rodriguez to Michigan, West Virginia is a bargain as a dog of over seven points. This team had a trip to the title game all wrapped up, until that bizarre 13-9 loss to Pitt in the final week, at home, as a 28½-point chalk. The Mountaineers remain the nation’s No. 4 team in efficiency and four spots ahead of Oklahoma.

But momentum counts in the postseason. The Sooners leapt into the BCS bowl picture with dual spankings of Oklahoma State and Missouri. If QB Sam Bradford hadn’t left the Texas Tech game with a concussion, OU might be 12-1 right now and playing for the title themselves. And, perhaps most importantly, they still have coach Bob Stoops.
 
Orange Bowl: No. 8 Kansas vs. No. 5 Virginia Tech (-3½, 52½)
Thursday, Jan 3, 8:00 pm (ET) FOX
Long dismissed as a basketball college, Kansas returns to the Orange Bowl after 39 years with the most profitable team in the country at 11-1 SU and 10-1 ATS. The problem for the Jayhawks is that 1: a 36-28 loss at home to Missouri (+1) in Kansas’ first matchup of the year against a strong team. Tellingly, the Jayhawks are No. 25 on the efficiency charts.

The Hokies are No. 10, and come into this contest on a tidal wave of five straight victories SU and ATS. Included during that streak: wins on the road at Georgia Tech, Virginia and Boston College. Those are three very good teams. Laying just 3½ points to Kansas doesn’t look terribly daunting, but this line has held firm since the open.