I am a big fan of Michigan State Spartans head coach Mark Dantonio and what he is doing to this program, but his team is outmatched in this spot vs. the Georgia Bulldogs.

I made reference in the Iowa/South Carolina matchup that the SEC had a down year and Georgia was part of that, making the Big Ten the conference with the value. However, the two big opponents the Spartans faced, Ohio St. and Penn St., blew them out. They snuck by Iowa and Wisconsin and beat Northwestern by 17 points despite getting outgained by 162 total yards.

The Bulldogs never recovered from their blowout loss against Florida, as they snuck by both Auburn and Kentucky, although those games were on the road, and then lost to Georgia Tech in the season finale. The good news is that the time off from then until now can only help Georgia.

The Bulldogs have a solid coach of their own in Mark Richt and he knows how to get the troops ready as they have won seven of their last eight non-BCS bowl games. Michigan St. struggled defensively against some of the tougher offenses and Georgia has the firepower to put up a lot of points with a first round draft pick at quarterback in Matthew Stafford and a great running back in Knowshon Moreno.

Georgia is a solid 19-5 ATS in its last 24 non-conference road games while Michigan St. is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing more than 6.25 yards per play in their last game.

The Bulldogs bounce back and win this one going away

Free Pick: Georgia -8 (-110)

I can hear the voice of the retired Keith Jackson right now in that deep and distinctive voice “It’s the Granddaddy of ‘em all”.

That’s the truth. In fact USC beat Penn State 14-3 in 1923 in what was then called the Tournament of Roses game. We now fast forward to January 1, 2009. This year’s Rose Bowl game features #4 USC again #6 Penn State.

The pressure is on the Trojans, who are making their fourth straight Rose Bowl appearance. They’re favored by nine points in what is virtually a home game for them. An SC victory would give the Pac-Ten a perfect 5-0 record in the post-season.

Both teams were one score shy from playing for the national title. USC had its annual clunker against Oregon State while Penn State lost to Iowa on a last second field goal. Defenses are likely to dominate today. The Trojan D headed by future NFL stars Rey Maualuga, Brian Cushing and Taylor Mays allowed the fewest points per game in the nation at 7.8 points per game

No team has given up fewer points or total yards per game (206.1). The average of 122.8 passing yards allowed is particularly impressive because it’s nearly 37 better than any other team, even though most of USC’s opponents had to throw a lot after falling well behind.

Don’t sell the Nittany Lions short when talking about defense either. Penn State has been tough to score on as well allowing just 12.4 PPG. I’m already thinking Under!. I do share the belief of that a good defense will beat a good offense (unless that offense is Oklahoma's).

On offense Penn State is averaging just over 40 points and USC 37.5. Both players have talented QB’ in Daryl Clark and Mark Sanchez. Clark has completed 60 percent of his passes for 2,139 yards. He’s also thrown for 17 touchdowns vs. just four picks.

If you’re a “stataholic” you’ll need these impressive numbers. Trojan signal-caller Mark Sanchez had a 159.1 quarterback rating, throwing for 30 touchdowns and 2,794 yards. Whether he’ll have the time to throw is another question.

The rushing games are good for both teams. Penn State’s Evan Royster has gained 1,202 yards this season while the “tailback by committee”  which includes  Joe McKnight, Stafon Johnson and C.J. Gable have combined to rush for 1,892 yards and 19 TD’s.

The two teams had one common opponent this year- Oregon State. The Nittany Lions destroyed the Beavers 45-14 back in September.

If you are looking at which team is hotter coming into this years game, USC has won nine straight and that includes three shutouts and only one game in which their defense allowed more than ten points.

The line opened at USC -9 ½ and is still in that general vicinity. The total is set at 45 ½.

70 degree temperatures, clear skies and a light breeze are forecast for Pasadena. It will be one of those chamber of commerce days that will get everyone in cold weather destinations.

USC’s defense is playing for a place in history, More than a few College experts believe that if the Trojans can put the clamps on Penn State’s spread offense, these Trojan defenders could go down as one of the best squads ever. They’ll be ready and while a shutout probably isn’t in the cards, Penn State will be lucky to score 17.

Take this game to go Under the total, while USC also wins and covers, giving the big ten another post-season spanking.

The Cincinnati Bearcats went a surprising 11-2 this season, but keep in mind that they play in the weak Big East, and we look for the more experienced Virginia Tech Hokies to prevail here.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Virginia Tech usually likes to win ugly, and this year was no exception. Still, they did finish at 9-4, thanks to a defense that was among the best in the nation allowing just 17.5 points and 277.2 total yards per game. We expect their defensive unit to have success here vs. a Cincinnati offense that keeps shuffling its quarterbacks, as Dustin Grutza and Tony Pike are expected to split time here.

Compounding the problems for the Bearcats is the fact that they have no real running game to speak of, averaging a modest 121.3 rushing yards per game on a weak 3.6 yards per carry. Thus, we feel that Cincinnati will struggle to generate much of anything offensively vs. the staunch Hokies defense, and that their best chance to score may come off of short fields created by turnovers and special teams.

The problem there is that Virginia Tech has excellent special teams and they are conservative offensively. Sure, the Hokies are averaging a lowly 22.2 points per game, but given their defense, that is just fine as they do not turn the ball over much due to their style.

The major knock against the Hokies is that they often play not to lose rather than to win, but these teams are like mirror images in that regard, except that Virginia Tech has historically done it better. They have also faced arguably tough competition, as the ACC is stronger than the Big East and Tech owns an impressive non-conference road win at Nebraska.

Finally, do not forget that entering this bowl season, ACC bowl underdogs were 12-3-1 against the spread the last five years, and Miami Florida and North Carolina State have both improved on that record in recent days. We look for Virginia Tech to do the same with an outright win.

Free Pick: Virginia Tech +2½ (-110)

I know the Kansas Jayhawks have a high-powered passing attack but they are soft defensively and that makes these points look pretty attractive.

Minnesota's last time on the field was ugly as the Golden Gophers weres crushed 55-0 in a rivalry game with Iowa. The Gophers have made a great turnaround from a year ago but they are not about to lay down to end the year with five straight defeats.

The Jayhawks defense is allowing a terrible 39.4 ppg away from home this season and they are only 1-14 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in three straight games since 1992. Minnesota's offense has been at its best away from home scoring 27.8 ppg and will be able to move the football against the porous KU defense.

Lastly, plays on underdogs of 3½ to 10 points with an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7+ games, and after scoring three points or less in the first half of their last game, are 30-8 ATS the last 10 seasons. Take the points.

Free Pick: Minnesota +8 (-105)

The Armed Forces Bowl features a sharp contrast of styles, pitting the pass-happy Houston Cougars vs. the ground-heavy Air Force Falcons.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]We already saw how one pass-oriented Conference USA team did playing in its own state last night, when Rice routed Western Michigan in Houston, and we see a similar result here with Houston playing in Fort Worth.

The Cougars averaged a whopping 41.2 points and 575.8 yards per game this season, with 413,5 of those yards coming through the air. Amazingly, Case Keenum completed 67.3 percent of his passes, which is exceptional when you consider how many times Houston throws the ball.

Keenum threw for over 4700 yards and a fantastic 42 touchdowns vs. 10 interceptions. It sure helps that he and the Cougars will have most of the crowd support, as Houston was 5-0 at home with an average winning margin of +30.0 points.

Now Air Force went 8-4 on the strength of a powerful running game that averaged 268.8 rushing yards per game. This is fine as long as the Falcons have the lead or the game is close, but their pathetic passing game (79.9 yards per game) limits them severely if they need to come from behind.

We feel that will be exactly the case here, as the Houston passing game has already been successful vs. stronger defenses than Air Force possesses. As if that is not bad enough, the Houston defense has been better against the run than the pass, and this should be especially true here as they can stiff the box without fear of the Falcons passing game.

We see Houston building a comfortable lead and then never looking back this afternoon.

Free Pick: Houston -3½ (-110)

The Rice Owls had a very solid season going 9-3 overall including 6-0 at home, and they should simply have too much firepower for the Western Michigan Broncos, who come out of a MAC conference that has struggled in the bowls so far.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]We mention the Rice home record because this contest is being played in their back yard in Houston. The Owls averaged an impressive 41.6 points and 472.2 total yards of offense per game this season, and their three losses came on the road at Texas, Vanderbilt and Tulsa, all of whom are bowl teams.

Rice also enters this game on a six-game winning streak after beginning the year at 3-3, and they have scored at least 35 points in every game during this streak. They have an outstanding dual threat at quarterback in Chase Clement, as not only did he pass for over 3800 yards with an incredible 41 touchdown passes vs. just seven interceptions this season, but he also added 621 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground!

Clement and the rest of a very versatile Rice offense presents a nightmarish matchup for a Western Michigan defense that struggled on the road all year, allowing 31.5 points on a horrendous 405.3 yards per game away from home. It also hurts the cause of Western Michigan that the MAC is 0-2 both straight up and against the spread this bowl season with the losses coming to a couple of the lesser teams to qualify for a bowl (Florida Atlantic, Louisiana Tech).

Rice is much stronger than those two clubs, so this seems like an extremely tough chore for the Broncos, especially with the contest being a virtual home game for Rice.

Free Pick: Rice -3 (-110)

The Central Michigan Chippewas have become quite familiar with Ford Field, as they are making their third straight Motor City Bowl appearance when the face the Florida Atlantic Owls Friday night.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]The Chippewas won here two years ago, but then suffered a heartbreaking 51-48 defeat vs. Purdue last season. However, we do feel they will erase that bad memory this time around with a handy victory.

CMU has the best quarterback in the MAC and one of the most underrated signal-callers in the country in Dan LeFevour, who completed 66.4 of his passes while throwing for 2530 yards with 19 touchdown passes against just five interceptions. LeFevour is also an excellent runner, and he proved himself with nice games vs. a couple of Big Ten schools this season in Indiana and Purdue.

Florida Atlantic is a nice story under Howard Schnellenberger, but they are not as good as most of the teams that Central Michigan has faced, and their terrible defense that has allowed 29.3 points and a whopping 401.5 total yards per game makes for a nightmarish matchup vs. someone as talented and versatile as LeFevour.

Now the Chippewas have similarly bad numbers defensively, but they faced a much tougher schedule and they should benefit here from those experiences. Look for a huge day for LeFevour as he leads Central Michigan to a double-digit win.

Free Pick: Central Michigan -6½ (-110)

This matchup all comes down to motivation: The Colorado State Rams have it and the Fresno State Bulldogs don't.

Fresno State started the season with BCS hopes as they were highly touted to be a BCS buster similar to conference mate Boise State. After an impressive road victory to open the season at Rutgers the bandwagon backers doubled. But after a highly anticipated 13-10 home loss to Wisconsin the team went into the tank.

Fresno failed to cover nine straight games and 10 of 11 to end the regular season. A team that had plenty of success in the past failed to live up to their goals. Now they will be playing in their ninth bowl in the last 10 years knowing a December 20th date in Albuquerque wasn't on the preseason agenda.

"We haven't had the concentration level we usually have during the week of practice," Fresno State coach Hill said. "But we'll see. We want to make sure school is taken care of first. And hopefully, by the time we get to New Mexico, we'll have two days to tighten it up for this game."

That doesn't sound like a confident coach bringing an inspired team into action. The Bulldogs only had five practices and the coaches have missed time to recruit. This isn't a team that is putting this game up high on their priority list.

Colorado State on the other hand is tickled pink about playing in a bowl, their first since 2000. The team has sold virtually their entire allotment of tickets and the game is high on the priority list for new coach Fairchild, for now and in the future. Colorado State will be bolstered by returning players in the secondary, and the defense which was a problem for most of the season looks to be improving.

Fresno State has picked off just seven passes in the last two years, a simply amazing stat. That means the line just isn't getting much of a push and the defensive backs don't anticipate well. That's not good news against this solid Rams scoring unit.

The Bulldogs are a horrible favorite posting a 4-20 spread mark and they simply don't deserve to lay any points here. Colorado State has the motivation and the fan and university support. Look for the energy level to be high as the Mountain West Conference continues their bowl success (9-4 straight up the past three bowl seasons).

Free Pick: Colorado St +2½ (-110)

The No. 2 team in the country is a double-digit favorite over the top-ranked school. Are the pollsters that far off?

Not when it comes to this SEC championship game between Alabama and Florida. These are two outstanding teams that are near even statistically. Florida has the more explosive offense. But Alabama has the better defense, can run the ball, is road tested and has fewer key injuries.

All of this puts me on the Crimson Tide at this big of a spread. You don't get a class underdog like this every day.

Alabama is averaging 202 yards rushing per game led by Glen Coffee, who is averaging 6.2 yards per run. The Tide allows just 2.7 yards per rush. Alabama has recorded 23 sacks, has 24 takeaways and has allowed only a 25 percent success rate on third-down conversion attempts.

Alabama definitely can control the line of scrimmage and win the battle of the trenches. Florida hasn't quite encountered such a physical, pounding foe. The Crimson Tide owns road victories against Georgia, LSU and Clemson. It's a real insult for Alabama to be such a heavy underdog.

Next to Tim Tebow, Florida's most valuable offensive player is versatile Percy Harvin. He has accounted for more than 1,000 yards rushing and receiving and has scored 16 touchdowns. He couldn't practice this week because of an ankle sprain. The Gators' leading rusher, Chris Rainey, also is banged-up with a groin injury. Rainey should play, while Harvin is questionable and would be less than 100 percent if he did play.

Free Pick: Alabama +10½ (-110)

If this game was played at any other stadium, I would be a little nervous about laying close to two touchdowns with Tulsa. However, in the friendly confines of H.A. Chapman Stadium, the Golden Hurricane have been a force. Tulsa has won 10 straight in its own backyard including their last seven by an average of 40.7 points per game!

Offensively, Tulsa has been outstanding. The Golden Hurricane average 49.3 points and 578.9 total yards per game. The man that makes this unit click is quarterback David Johnson. Ranked No. 1 nationally in passing efficiency (192.4), Johnson has pitched the pigskin around for 3,671 yards or an average of 305.9 passing yards per game. East Carolina’s defensive front four is solid. However, given time to throw, Johnson should pick apart a Pirates secondary that has surrendered an average of 196.8 yards per game.

If you want to beat the Golden Hurricane, you better be able to put points on the board. ECU has struggled to do that this season. Currently ranked 80th in scoring offense (23.5 ppg) and 78th in total offense (340.8 ypg), the Pirates may not be able to find the endzone enough times to match Tulsa point-for-point.

If East Carolina turns the football over in this contest and gives the Hurricane’s offense more touches, the Pirates will be in serious trouble.

Respect is certainly given to an ECU team that has recorded a solid 7-1 ATS record in its last eight priced as a double-digit underdog. However, the Golden Hurricane have been unstoppable at home and they’ve cashed 12 of their last 16 in their own backyard coming off a momentum building straight up win. Take Tulsa!

Free Pick: Tulsa -11½ (-110)

The Tyrone Willingham era at Washington comes to an end this weekend as he and his Huskies make one final trip to take on the Golden Bears. Washington is winless on the season and have actually lost 13 straight games dating back to last season.

California managed to pick up their seventh win of 2008 and snap a two-game slide at the same time back on November 22 with a 37-16 rout of Stanford.

Washington's troubles this season were made worse with unproven quarterbacks after Jake Locker went down with an injury. The Huskies have had to turn to youngster Ronnie Fouch to try and shake them out of their funk but it just hasn't happened. Fouch has completed a mere 45% of his attempts for 4 TDS and 12 INTs.

With an offense that is second-to-last in the conference and 117th in the nation in scoring at less than 14 ppg, the Huskies needed the defense to step up and play big this season and that never happened. Except for the meeting with Washington State when it allowed a mere 16 points in two overtimes, the unit allowed no less than 27 points in any one contest and averaged nearly 38 ppg permitted, which is 115th in the country. The run defense has really been beaten down, allowing more than 220 ypg, while the pass defense has basically given up the same. The “push” up front has been missing almost all season with the team checking in last in the conference in both sacks and tackles for loss.

Cal head coach Jeff Tedford is gunning for his third undefeated season at home during his tenure with the Golden Bears and will be calling upon Kevin Riley. The QB has completed 51% of his pass attempts for 134 ypg and 14 TDs and, along with Nate Longshore, has been able to spread the ball to several different players down the field. Jahvid Best is easily the most productive performer with his 1,083 rushing yards and 9 TDs. His average of 108 ypg in his 10 appearances ranks him second in the conference and 19th nationally entering play this week.

The Golden Bears aerial defense for the season has been pretty solid. In fact, Cal's pass efficiency defense ranks second in the Pac-10 and 10th in the nation overall with a rating of 99.57 through 11 games. A big part of that number comes from the fact that the secondary has come up with an average of nearly two interceptions per game, which is bad news for the Huskies.

We’ve played against Washington on numerous occasions this season, while never backing them, and we’re not about to start here. We’ve been fading the Huskies knowing Willingham was on the hot seat, and the team has let him down game after game, so there’s no reason to believe that they will suddenly play a competitive game against a quality opponent.

One of our handicapping rules is to play against or at least not on a weak team that is on a spread-losing streak. A bad team that apparently is not even capable of a decent performance once in a while should be faded whenever possible, and Washington is 0-9 ATS (-11.5 ppg) in its last 9 games. Their last win came 14 games ago when they upset California in Seattle last season. The last thing Washington needs now is to face a team with a bit of a chip on their shoulder, as the Huskies are 0-4 SU & ATS the last two years vs. opponents playing with revenge. The Bears are 5-0 SU and ATS as a home favorite with revenge for a SU loss the previous season since 2007.

Cal is also active for an NCAA Football Power System, as very large home favorites at the right price have been strong in the final game of the season. Specifically, in their final home game, play on a conference home favorite of 30½-36½ points vs. an opponent not off a conference home underdog SU loss and ATS win. These hosts are perfect since at least 1980, which is as far back as the SportsDataBase goes, so they may actually be better than our numbers, which have the teams at a sparkling 12-0 SU (+45.9 ppg) and 12-0 ATS (+13 ppg).

Once they fall behind, there’s little reason to believe the Huskies will put up much of a fight as they resign themselves to a winless season. Meanwhile, the Bears can improve their bowl destination with an impressive showing here, which is what we expect.

Projected Final Score: Golden Bears-49 Huskies-7

Free Pick: California -35½ (-110)

Led by Heisman hopeful Sam Bradford, Oklahoma's offense is clicking on all fronts right now.  Side with the Sooners vs. the Missouri Tigers today in the Big 12 Championship.

It boils down to Oklahoma who was given the nod by the BCS point system to represent the South division of the Big 12 after walking through both Okie State and pounding Texas Tech into the ground. OU is playing as good of football as any team in the USA right now, and I agree with the call for them to represent the South.

Mizzou on the other hand was dealt back-to-back fatal blows early on this season with a home loss to Oklahoma State following by a good Ol fashion woodshed beating from Texas and they have not been the same since. Take into account other than Arkansas and Kansas last year, Missouri has no quality wins over a ranked opponent with this highly touted team, and they are off a devastating loss week to Kansas that threw it all over them at will at Arrowhead stadium. I do respect the MU program, but without a defense, you cannot win big games, just watch last week's game film.

Missouri's biggest issue here in terms of competing is twofold. QB Chase Daniel has proven to be less than effective with the pressure on him, and OU can get to the passer. The major issue for Mizzou is no pass rush, and when you give OU quarterback Sam Bradford all day to throw and then pound RB Murray at a weak front four, it makes it a total mis-match up front, and with the skill players and excellent coaching OU has, I sniff a blowout.

Many think that Mizzou with nothing to lose here will play wide open and compete in their backyard, I beg to differ. Oklahoma beat them twice last year, both times in convincing fashion. I see a better OU team this year than last year with a national title on the line while Missouri simply cannot trade punches on offense to match what OU will put up.

Prediction: Sooners-52 Tigers-28

Free Pick: Oklahoma -16½ (-108)

The USC Trojans have allowed 10 points or less in six of their eight Pac-10 games this season, and we do not expect the pathetic UCLA Bruins offense to reach double-digits here.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]It should also be noted, however, that the USC offense is averaging 37.1 points in conference, and they may not quite be on top of their game here knowing that they now have virtually no chance of playing in the BCS Championship Game. It would not be at all surprising if this game resembles the meeting between these clubs last season, when the Trojans won just 24-7.

Now make no mistake, the Bruins are terrible this season. That said, their defense has actually played very well the last two games. Yes, holding Washington to seven points does not mean much, but they followed up that effort by incredibly limiting Arizona State to only 127 total yards of offense last week.

It is fairly amazing that they lost that game 34-9, but consider that they did not allow a single offensive touchdown, as the four Sun Devils touchdowns came on three interception returns and a fumble return! Also, UCLA will no doubt be the more motivated team this weak, so we feel an inspired defense can keep this final score quasi-respectable if they could match their efforts of the last two contests.

Thus, the end result should be a much lower scoring game than many people expect.

Free Pick: USC, UCLA Under 47½ (-110)

Good news. The Washington Huskies played a competitive game last week. Bad news. That game came against in-state rival, Washington State, the only other team on the West Coast as bad as them.

The Huskies couldn't even win either, losing by a score of 16-13. Including that result Washington is now 0-9 SU/ATS its last nine games and an awful 1-10 ATS (0-11 SU) on the season. There's no reason to think that the Huskies will be able to hang with Bears either.

You may recall what happened when Cal took on Washington State. The Bears won 66-3! That was on the road, too. This should be another one-sided affair. Lay the big number.

Free Pick: California -35½ (-110)

This is a matchup that pits a big physical Alabama side against a a athletic s speedy group of Gators. One of these teams plays in slow motion, while the other in fast forward. Let's pause in a look at the tale of the tape.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Florida's vaunted offense goes after opponents with numerous attributes via a variety of looks. Heisman winner Tim Tebow can run over you with his legs or unload down field to Percy Harvin and Jeffery Demps and Chris Rainey out of the backfield as was evident last week against a solid Florida State team, pounding them for 502 total yards of offense which ended in a 45-15 decision as 15-point favorites in the rain. Stopping the Gators is like trying hit 20 Nolan Ryan fastballs all at once. Needless to say, I do not care how well Alabama's defense has played this season, they are in for some big headaches against the fastest college football team in the nation on both sides of the ball.

Florida owns the country's 17th-ranked offense while Alabama counters with the third-ranked defense in the nation. A closer look on how these numbers and rankings were accumulated show us that Nick Saban and his Tide's defensive stats were padded against some lower level offenses, including five opponents that rank lower than the top 100 in the nation. Only two opponents ranked in the top 50.

Meanwhile, Urban Meyer's offense has hammered their opponents for an average of 46.3 PPG on the season, with four of their victims defenses ranking 16th or better.

The Crimson Tide fires back with the 53rd-ranked offense against the Gators' seventh-ranked defense. Unfortunately for the Tide, their offense has become very predictable and one dimensional. Alabama's use of a slow, plodding ground attack behind a huge offensive line will be easy to read, and thus easily slowed by one the nastiest and fastest Front 7's in the nation. It must also be noted that the Gators' run D ranks 12th in the country.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Urban Meyer has said his coaching staff is well prepared after watching game film of the Tide for the past two weeks. He is considered by many the best tape analyzer in all of football. The Gators have covered all six games they have played against above .500 teams this season, winning SU by an average of 39.2 PPG.

Gators win big...Projected Score: Florida-34 Alabama-17

Free Pick: Florida -9 (-110)

Our Saturday college football selection is on the UCLA Bruins plus the points at home over the Southern Cal Trojans.

This rivalry, like many in college football, goes to the underdog.  Since 1981, the underdog is 18-9 ATS in this series.  And the bigger the point spread, the better the underdog has performed. When the line is greater than six points, the dog is a super 10-2, 83% ATS.

Also, this game will be played on UCLA's home field in Pasadena at the Rose Bowl, and the home dog is 10-3 ATS in this series.  Finally, since 1980, UCLA is 27-10 ATS as a home dog (or Pk).  Take the points.

Free Pick: UCLA +32½ (-110)

Make it 12 years now since Army went to a bowl game. The Black Knights come into this annual rivalry game with a 3-8 record but there have been some reasons for optimism as even though the results show another losing season, it could have been much better.

Three losses against Temple, New Hampshire and Akron by a combined 85-20 to start the season could have sent Army reeling but it did not give up as it fought hard the rest of the way and put up some very respectable efforts.  Army went 3-2 in its next five games with the two losses against Texas A&M and Buffalo coming by only seven points total. The Black Knights then dropped their last three games but two of those were close and on the season, four of their losses were by single digits.

The reason for the turnaround was that the defense started playing great and currently the defense is ranked 44th overall including a very solid 32nd against the run. This is pretty good considering Army finished 117th against the run last season.

Navy is heading to a bowl game for the sixth straight season but unlike past seasons, they have not seemed as dominant. The Midshipmen are first in the country in rushing offense which comes as no surprise, but their average is down 57 ypg from last season and that is a huge dropoff. Through five weeks this year, they were averaging 335 ypg and now the average is at 292 ypg as teams were able to slow down the ground attack. Navy has been outgained in four of its last six games.

Navy has dominated this rivalry with wins in the six meetings and has been able to cover five of those. With the records sitting at opposite ends again this season, it is no surprise that the public is all over the Midshipmen yet again. Navy has won the six meetings by an average score of 28.2 ppg but this is easily the best Army team coming into the season finale over those six games. The Black Knights are getting outscored by just 6.6 ppg and outgained by only 31.6 ypg.

Free Pick: Army +11 (-110)

We started the college football regular season by having a lot of success taking the SEC against a vastly inferior ACC when the right pairings were available, and what better way to spend a Saturday than by not only revisiting that particular concept, but also using an annual series that has provided meat to put between our bread many times?

Here is the gist of this one – Georgia has won seven straight against Georgia Tech, going 5-1-1 ATS in the process, and beating the pointspread by a combined 65½ points over those games. How do the oddsmakers miss such a series by an average of 9½ points per contest over such a span? Because basically we get the same layout each time – the previous two months Georgia Tech is taking on much inferior competition than Georgia, and it sets up perceptions that just do not match the true realities of the gap between these programs. It is the same again here, and with the marketplace helping to drop this one into our laps we can step in again.

The Yellow Jackets have adapted better to Paul Johnson’s offensive schemes than we thought that they would in his first season, but some of that has to be taken with a grain of salt – they were playing in a weak conference, and most opposing defenses were seeing these designs for the first time. Now they not only have to face a Georgia defense loaded with athleticism up front, but it is also a defense that has two full weeks to prepare for those tactics, including a chance to sit back and watch Tech on national television last Thursday night. That helps not just tactically, but the fact that the Yellow Jackets were blowing out Miami also fully alerts Mark Richt’s squad to the challenge that is at hand.

Not only does Georgia bring the defensive tools here, but that outstanding corps of skill players can make plays vs. a defense that has not seen anything near this class of offense all season. The emotions will run particularly high on the Bulldog sidelines, because we are being told that this will be QB Matthew Stafford’s last game between the hedges.

Stafford, Knowshon Moreno and the rest of the cast can exploit a Tech defense that will be without key LB Sedric Griffin (their third leading tackler), and S Dominique Reese, and while the Jackets do hope to have Jahi Word-Daniels back in the secondary, he has missed the last four games with a hamstring injury, and his timing will be an issue.

Free Pick: Georgia -7½ (-103)

Fresh off a humiliating defeat, the 7th-ranked Red Raiders get right back on the horse Saturday afternoon as they host the Bears in Big 12 Conference play. This will be it for Baylor, which owns a 4-7 record overall. The Bears carried a four- game skid into a November 15th clash with Texas A&M, but got the 41-21 victory.

Texas Tech controlled its own fate for a trip to the Big 12 title game and a possible national championship appearance, but they were completely dismantled at Oklahoma last week in a 65-21 final. Now, the Red Raiders are tied with the Sooners and Texas Longhorns atop the Big 12 South standings. If Tech and Oklahoma win on Saturday, the BCS rankings would determine the division's representative in the league championship tilt. The best chance for the Red Raiders to advance to the conference championship game is to beat the Bears and root for Oklahoma State to upset the Sooners Saturday night.

While wins have been hard to come by for Baylor this season, the future does look bright in Waco, largely because of the presence of freshman quarterback Robert Griffin. The rookie has been sensational, helping the Bears average 28 ppg and just over 380 total ypg this season. Opponents are scoring nearly 29 ppg and gaining almost 400 total ypg against Baylor. The Bears defense will now have its hands full with an angry bunch of Red Raiders.

Heading into the Oklahoma game, Texas Tech quarterback Graham Harrell and his favorite target, Michael Crabtree, were considered leading candidates for the Heisman Trophy, but may have seen those hopes go down the drain with last week’s debacle at Oklahoma. Through 11 games, the Red Raiders are averaging over 45 ppg on the strength of more than 550 total ypg. Harrell has connected on an amazing 71% of his passes for over 4,400 yards and 39 TDs against just 6 INTs.

The Texas Tech defense was humiliated last week by the Sooners. On the season, opponents are averaging 26 ppg against the Red Raiders, which is yielding 376 total ypg. The Red Raiders have been solid against the run all season, and while they have yielded plenty of yardage through the air, they do have more interceptions than touchdown passes allowed.

Off such a great effort against Texas A&M, Baylor will have a hard time matching it.

"Our guys really put forth a great effort on both sides of the ball. I really felt (it was) our most complete game of the year." — Baylor coach Art Briles on last week's Senior Day win over Texas A&M.

Here is where we can play against a team off its peak performance of the season. Whether a blowout win, upset, revenge victory, played the “spoiler,” or any win in which a team feels like they “just won the Super Bowl,” they will be hard-pressed to match that emotion, effort, and intensity next time out and will be due for a fall.

In looking at some numbers, we find the Bears are 0-3 ATS the last 3 seasons as a conference underdog of more than 12 points off a SU win, and 0-15 SU (-32.3 ppg) & 0-15 ATS (-14.7 ppg) as a road underdog of more than 8 points vs. opponents off a SU loss of 7+ points.

Meanwhile, with Texas Tech we will play on a team with at least some pride off a horrible performance. A team that has hit a new low with an awful showing will be determined to get rid of the bitter taste and bad press. When the players openly admit to being embarrassed by the result of their last effort, expect their best effort next time out.

The Red Raiders are actually in a strong spot here for a big performance, as they are:

• 6-0 ATS (+10.3 ppg) from Game 5 on off their first SU loss of the season;
• 16-0-1 ATS (16.8 ppg) in their final home game and not playing Oklahoma;
• 11-0 ATS (17.1 ppg) as a favorite of 3+ points vs. Baylor and not off a conference SU & ATS win.

Our SportsDataBase research also shows that home/neutral site teams in the final game of the regular season and off their first SU loss of the season are 3-0 SU (+30.3 ppg) & 3-0 ATS (+21.8 ppg) since at least 1980.

An NCAA Football power system shows that home favorites with 0 or 1 loss on the season have been strong coming off a poor showing and facing opponents off a win. The Red Raiders qualify for this power system that states: In its final game, play on a Saturday home favorite with less than 2 SU losses, off an ATS loss in its last game and not a conference home ATS loss of more than 7 points before that vs. an opponent off a SU win.

Since the mid-1980s, these teams have closed out the regular season by going 17-0 SU (+22.7 ppg) & 17-0 ATS (+13.3 ppg).

Penn State was the most recent qualifier when they hosted Michigan State last weekend. The Nittany Lions, favored by 16 points against a quality Spartans team, jumped on Michigan State early and cruised to a 49-18 victory and 15-point spread cover.

Now, it’s the Red Raiders turn to rebound. We expect a huge showing from their offense, as they look to get the bad taste of last week’s game out their mouths and set themselves up for a possible Big 12 Championship Game should the Sooners stumble against the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Bears will be hard-pressed to mount much of a comeback when they fall behind big and can’t run a balanced offense, which should lead to a blowout loss for the visitors.

Projected Final Score: Texas Tech-56 Baylor-17

Free Pick: Texas Tech -21½ (-110)

The UTEP Miners lost a tight game last week but at 5-6, bowl eligibility is still a possibility. Last season these teams went to overtime with East Carolina winning by three in a game that UTEP posted nearly 600 yards.

Last week’s narrow win for East Carolina clinched the C-USA East division title so there is much less on the line for the Pirates in this game. UTEP has a great record as an underdog in recent years and the Miners are on a 3-game ATS winning streak.

East Carolina is 1-8 ATS in the last nine games, still overvalued from the great start to the year. East Carolina has not topped 20 points in four straight games and the Pirates will have a hard time keeping up with UTEP’s offense. The Pirates have been out-rushed in seven of the last 10 games and UTEP is averaging a full yard more per rushing attempt on the season. Two of East Carolina’s last three wins came in overtime and with the division locked up this could be a lackluster home effort from the Pirates.

UTEP’s defense is bad but even against the worst defenses they have faced East Carolina has not posted much for offensive output.

Free Pick: UTEP +6 (+100)

What can you say about the Florida Gators?

They are just spanking everyone and are covering monster Spreads, going 6-0 against the spread in their last six games against some good teams. Their opponents, the Florida State Seminoles, are totally outmanned here in this game.

Florida's Urban Meyer will have no mercy as he tries to get his quarterback back in the race for the Heisman and his team to leapfrog someone in the BCS as well. FSU lost to Georgia Tech at home and recently were beaten by Boston College by 10 points.

Think about that a minute. They lost to a so-so BC team by double digits, now and are now playing a red hot team averaging 56 points per game in their last three games. Florida destroyed the SEC's number one ranked defense in South Carolina by pounding the Gamecocks 56-6, so I put little stock in a ACC team that allows 18 PPG, because they are playing in the ACC, which is not a good conference.

To further explain laying a large number like this in an in-state rivalry type game, if Florida State was to play Georgia this weekend in Tallahassee, Georgia would be favored by at least four or five in that game scenario.

Florida pounded Georgia on a neutral site by 39 points laying seven without even breaking a sweat. Thus, I have no problems laying slight over two touchdowns here. The SEC is so far above the ACC in terms of parity, talent, speed and coaching it is unfathomable.

As a matter of fact I would put up the Mountain West conference against the ACC and they would have a better record. Florida State is not even leading the ACC conference, which is even scarier for FSU backers this weekend.

Florida may still get into the national title game as they have to win the SEC championship to do it, and any SEC Champion or Big 12 champion deserves to play in a title game against one another. I have no doubts that the Gators bite will be quite large this weekend as they are on a mission to win a national title with perhaps one of the best teams Urban Meyer has ever coached.

No matter what Jimbo Fisher and Bobby Bowden dream up in terms of an offensive counterpunch, they cannot match the power and speed and talent that the Florida Gators have in this one, not even at home on Senior Day in Tallahassee.

Get all over Florida here. Florida 49 Florida State 17

Free Pick: Florida -16½ (-110)

North Carolina State has once again emerged as a possible bowl contender. With three straight wins, the Wolfpack are 5-6 and are one victory away from becoming bowl eligible. They are coming off a huge road win at rival North Carolina and pieces from last season will pay a big role in this game.

NC State went to Miami last season and defeated the Hurricanes in overtime. That was the third of four straight wins for the Wolfpack who started the season 1-5 and were in a similar position they are now. They were 5-5 and with two games left, all they needed was one win to make it to a bowl game after missing out in 2006. NC State was hammered at Wake Forest but still had a shot with a home game against Maryland. The Wolfpack were obliterated at home by the Terrapins 37-0 and were without a postseason spot for a second straight year. With this being the same scenario as last season, look for NC State to look back at that lesson learned and come out strong on Saturday.

Watching Miami on Thursday showed that it recent five-game winning streak may have been a fluke. I thought the Hurricanes would have come in with more energy riding a big streak but they were smacked in the face early and often and were crushed by the Yellow Jackets. Looking back at the run shows only one big win at Duke with the other four victories coming by a touchdown or less. The hurricanes are young and it certainly showed and coming back off that defeat will be even tougher.

At the start of the season, redshirt freshman quarterback Russell Wilson was fourth on the depth chart and it looked as though playing time would be sparse. However, he has come along quickly as is turning into one of the better quarterbacks in the conference. He has passed for 14 touchdowns while only tossing one interception. He has thrown five touchdown passes in each of his last five games and is coming off his best performance of the season where he threw for a season high 279 yards.

The Wolfpack have not been a strong rushing team but they have come on of late, culminating with a season high 187 yards against the Tar Heels. After averaging 80 ypg through their first six games, they have put up an average of 161.4 ypg over their last five games. Miami went into the Georgia Tech game with the 19th ranked rushing defense. It came out ranked 57th after allowing an unheard of 486 yards rushing. Don’t expect those kinds of numbers from NC State but the balance will keep Miami on its heels.

Free Pick: North Carolina State +2 (-110)

Last week on these pages we gave you another winning selection and system as Ole Miss was our “Conference Avenger” and they not only covered but won the game straight up over LSU. That makes this articles record now 8-3 ATS this season and four straight!

This week we take a look at the Alabama/Auburn game which actually has significance 365 days a year to all Alabamians. Yes, the Iron Bowl is the most heated rivalry game in the country and we have learned this from firsthand experience. Alabamians literally allow this game’s outcome to determine how they feel for 365 days a year.

This season the game has national title implications for the first time in awhile and the Tide could actually keep the Tigers from becoming bowl eligible. It would take Alabama breaking a losing streak of six games for that to happen as Auburn has owned this series of late. The Crimson Tide has not won the Iron Bowl since 2001.

Nick Saban was primarily hired for this one game. The 'Bama faithful had taken all they could stand from the plains and they were willing to pay Saban whatever he wanted because they were convinced he was the person that could turn the Tide program around sooner rather than later. Well it appears they were right because in Saban’s second season the oddsmakers have posted Alabama as a 14½-point favorite, this on a team that has lost six in a row to their opponent.

Neither coach has to get their team motivated for this rivalry but the Tigers are certainly not the Tigers of the past six seasons. This is a much improved Tide team that Auburn will face this season compared to Alabama teams the last few years. Auburn’s offense ranks 99th in the nation while Alabama’s defense ranks third. In years past one would say that doesn’t matter because this is a rivalry game but the team with the 99th ranked offense has won the last six seasons and may not approach this contest with the same vigor as in years past.

This week our College Football System of the Week is active in the Iron Bowl and it tells us that from Game 8 on, play on an undefeated Saturday home team with 9+ days rest and not 14+ days rest before that vs. an opponent not off a conference underdog SU loss of 5+ points, going 15-0 ATS since 1992 and averages covering the spread by 10.6 points per game!

The Crimson Tide faithful get what they paid for as Coach “S” leads his team to the win and cover over the boys from the plains on Saturday and the Tiger faithful have to face the dreaded “L” for 365. Good luck with the Tide on Saturday and please have a safe and happy holiday!

Free Pick: Alabama -14½ (-110)

This is a double revenge spot for the Florida International Golden Panthers, who lost this rivalry matchup each of the last two years including an embarrassing 55-23 defeat at home last season.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Very little separates these teams this season however, as FIU is averaging 21.9 points per game giving up 28.0 points per contest, while FAU is scoring 22.3 and allowing 27.5. With numbers this close, this game should come down to intangibles, so the huge revenge motive becomes even more significant here.

Also note that this game is on a neutral field, and FIU has been the more competitive of these teams away from home this season. The Golden Panthers are averaging a respectable 21.7 points per game on the road, and while they are losing their road games by an average of -10.0 points, that is only because they lost at Iowa 42-0 and at Kansas 40-10. They have more than held their own with teams that are on the same level.

Conversely, FAU has struggled on the road, averaging just 13.3 points while losing by an average of -14.7 points per game. They also look awful in a 28-14 loss at Arkansas State last week, as the game was not as close as the score would indicate. In fact, the Owls were outgained by a total of 223 total yards.

All things considered, this game should be a lot closer to a Pick, so we see good value with Florida International at this price.

Free Pick: Florida International +5 (-110)

The Tigers have been on a nice roll after starting the season 0-3. Since then, this team has ripped off five wins in seven games and their offense has been clicking. Expect their offense to look even better on Saturday as they get their starting QB Arkelon Hall back in the line up after a two game absence.

Hall was really starting to roll when he was injured in the first offensive series at East Carolina. The two games leading up to that one, Hall threw for 298 yards against UAB and 350 vs. Louisville.

One of the Tigers' two losses since September 13 was at home to Louisville by a TD. In that game, Memphis outgained the Cards by a whopping 182 yards. Louisville scored on a kick return for a TD and on a fumble recovery. The Tigers turned it over three times otherwise they most likely win that game. Their other loss was at ECU 30-10. However, as we mentioned, Hall was injured on the first series of the game and did not return. What we didn’t mention was that his back up, Will Hudgens, hurt his knee just six plays later and did not return. Thus, Memphis was down to their third string QB just a few plays into the game. After that, they really had no chance at ECU.

Memphis has an absolutely huge edge on offense in this game. They put up 440 yards per game which is good for 20th nationally. UCF has been completely inept on offense averaging 235 YPG on offense which ranks them last in the nation. Last week’s 30-point outburst by UCF at Marshall was a bit deceiving as they only gained 242 yards but recovered a fumble in the end zone and really benefited from four Herd turnovers. They have absolutely zero passing game as starter Rob Calabrese completes just 39% of his attempts. In last week’s win, Calabrese was just 4 of 17 for 29 yards! Before last week, the Golden Knights topped 19 points just once in their last seven games.

UCF is now on the road for the second straight game with nothing to play for. At 3-7, they cannot reach a bowl game. You can bet they are much more excited about next week’s home finale vs. UAB. Memphis, on the other hand, is in the hunt for a bowl game. A win here gets them bowl eligible and they host Tulane next Saturday which could get them to 7-5. They are getting healthy after a bye week and are ready to roll on Saturday. We’ll take the home team vs. the offensive challenged and fatigued visitor.

Free Pick: Memphis -5 (-110)

Things went from bad to worse for Tennessee immediately following Philip Fulmer’s resignation, effective at the end of the season. The Vols had been struggling mightily prior to Fulmer’s announcement – heck, if they weren’t doing so poorly, he wouldn’t have quit.

Then came the 13-7 home loss to Wyoming, as 25-point chalk, as embarrassing a performance as we’ve seen out of Tennessee since their wipeout loss to Maryland back in the 2002 Peach Bowl. The Wyoming game came at the end of a brutal stretch for the Vols. They hadn’t had a bye since Week 2; had just suffered embarrassing beat-down losses at the hands of Alabama and South Carolina; and saw their head coach, under tremendous fire, announce his resignation, effective at the end of the season. No wonder they came out flat!

Now the Vols are rested and ready to take on their in-state foe, in the midst of a far better season than Tennessee is having. The Vols have absolutely dominated this series, winning 24 of the last 25 meetings in straight up fashion; 67-9-2 since 1928. Tennessee can avoid the worst season in the history of the program with a win here, and they are in an ideal position to do it.

Fulmer, talking about the impact of the bye week said, "We had a chance to do some fundamental work while also physically and mentally getting some rest after nine straight football games."

Tennessee certainly got healthy over the bye. Key defensive cogs Dan Williams, Walter Fisher and Ellix Wilson are all expected to be at or near 100% this week. That’s bad news for the sluggish Vanderbilt offense, a unit held to 14 points or less for five straight weeks before last week’s dominant showing at Kentucky.

While Jonathan Crompton is expected to start at quarterback for the Vols, redshirt frosh BJ Coleman had a phenomenal performance in the JV game last weekend, and should see some snaps here, particularly if Crompton struggles again.

Vandy just notched their sixth win last week, clinching bowl eligibility for the first time since 1982. This sets up as a major flat spot for the Commodores, even against an in-state rival that has dominated them for decades. There’s no question that Tennessee has the more talented personnel on both sides of the football. This week, I expect to see the level of effort that corresponds with that talent base.

Free Pick: Tennessee +3 (-110)

The Michigan Wolverines look to put an end to the most disappointing season in school history when they take on the Ohio St. Buckeyes in the Horseshoe at Columbus today.

Despite Michigan's abysmal season they have shown a spirited effort in their last two games, holding both Northwestern and Minnesota to season-low yardage marks. The Wolves are 16-4 ATS as dogs of more than 4 points and have never lost five games in a row to Ohio State in this storied series.

In the two games they played after losing each of the previous four years to the Buckeyes, Michigan blanked OSU, 18-0 and 10-0, to snap the losing skids. In addition, Ohio State has not scored an offensive touchdown in Columbus since they hosted Minnesota the final week in September. The last time Michigan was anywhere near his large of a dog in this series they upended the Buckeyes, 13-6 at 17-point puppies in 1996 here in Columbus.

Don't be at all surprised if this game comes down to who ever scores last wins it. Grab the generous points with the Wolverines. We recommend a 1-unit play on Michigan.

Free Pick: Michigan +20½ (-110)

The Fighting Irish wrap up their home slate this weekend, as they host the Orange in South Bend. Notre Dame enters the bout on a high note, as they prevailed over Navy 27-21 last weekend. The triumph put the breaks on a two-game slide and pushed the team to 6-4 overall, making the team bowl eligible.

As for Syracuse, its struggles continued last weekend with a 39-14 setback to Connecticut. A day after that result, the team learned that head coach Greg Robinson was fired, although he is finishing out the remainder of the season with the team.

The Orange haven't had much success on offense this season, averaging just 18 ppg and only 271 total ypg. Syracuse quarterback Cameron Dantley has not provided the team with a passing threat this season. Last week he was under heavy pressure by the UConn defense and responded by throwing for just 38 yards and an interception on 4-of-16 pass attempts.

Syracuse hasn't fared much better on defense, as the unit is allowing 34 ppg and 423 total ypg to opposing squads. The Orange has been burnt for over 200 ypg each on the ground and through the air and has notched a mere 10 sacks.

Compared to a year ago, the Irish have done well on offense, gaining 127 rushing ypg and 245 passing ypg. Last weekend, they overcame five turnovers by rushing for 230 yards in the win over Navy. Quarterback Jimmy Clausen completed an efficient 15-of-18 pass attempts against the Middies and is having a decent campaign with over 2,400 yards and 18 TDs.

The Irish have been pretty consistent on defense this year and they are giving up less than 21 ppg and 316 to the opposition. The team is limiting foes to 137 ypg on the ground and 180 ypg through the air, while forcing 18 turnovers. Despite a near collapse at the end of last weekend's game, the defense was rather stout, holding Navy to only 242 total yards.

There is little life left in the Syracuse team whose main concern is now who will be coaching them next season. No doubt, Robinson is already making his post-Syracuse plans, while the soon-to-be-ex-assistant coaches are getting their resumes freshened up and trying to figure out where they’ll be in working in a couple of weeks.

The Orange are 0-5 SU & ATS as a non-conference underdog last two seasons and 0-7 ATS (-12.8 ppg) in non-conference SU losses the past two seasons. Teams off a couple of horrible performances as significant underdogs, which Syracuse is, have continued to play poorly in late-season games. This is confirmed by an NCAA Football Power System that the Orange qualify for, which states:

"From Game 8 on, play against a road/neutral site team (not a favorite of more than 7 points or underdog of more than 32 points) off SU losses & ATS losses of 13+ points as underdogs of 9+ points and scoring less than 21 points in each of its last two games."

Since the start of this database in 1980, these teams are 0-12 SU (-27.7 ppg) & 0-12 ATS (-14.2 ppg). It’s 1-0 this season, as Washington State lost 58-0 at Stanford as a 30-point underdog, failing to cover by 28 points.

Meanwhile, the Irish have the pressure off from beating Navy and qualifying for a bowl. Now, they can focus on improving their bowl position and should be ready to roll here. Notre Dame is 9-0 SU (+24.1 ppg) & 9-0 ATS (+12.9 ppg) at home and not favored by more than 24 points vs. sub-.400% opponents, along with being 7-0 SU (+31.3 ppg) and 6-0-1 ATS (+12.1 ppg) off scoring 25+ points and before playing USC.

With the Trojans on deck, we look for the Fighting Irish to close out their final home game of the season with a crushing win over the Orange.

Projected Score: Notre Dame-35 Syracuse-10

Free Pick: Notre Dame -19½ (-110)

Nothing comes easy in the ACC, except if you are Georgia Tech these days! North Carolina has done a great job with Butch Davis as head man, and have surporised many with their play this season. The Tar heels however have some holes on both sides of the ball. In the ACC, there is parity. The difference between the best and the worst is really not more than a few plays in a game in any instance.

NC State is a cover machine going 7-1 ATS their last eight games and they are riding a freshman sensation in QB Russell Wilson who has tossed out 12 TD passes in his last six games while throwing no picks in the process.

If you look at the stats in the last three games these two have played this year, the stats are almost dead even, and this is a rivalry game with pride on the line for the Wolfpack. Their ability to run it and having a QB with confidence with nothing to lose, as this is their bowl game this season, leads me to look for a cover here in a tight game.

Losing All-World WR Brandon Tate for NC took away a huge threat for them and big play capabilities. This one is a nail biter for Tar heel fans. Take the points and NC State.

Free Pick: North Carolina St. +10½ (-110)

Just another late-season game between two losing teams going through the motions? This is anything but that on one side of the equation, and we believe that Joe Tiller not only gets a chance to carry away the Old Oaken Bucket one last time, but does it in style. So in the kind of game in which the oddsmakers often struggle to incorporate the emotional factors properly, we have a most fair line to play a Purdue blowout.

The Boilermaker run under Tiller has been a special one, with 10 bowl appearances. And he has been more than a football coach at the university, also being awarded the “Order of the Griffin,” a special Purdue honor that is not tied to athletics. That means not only a concerted effort by the players to send him out with a final win, but also more than the usual fan support for a losing team playing their last game. And with 17 seniors slated to start for the last time on this field the emotion runs particularly deep, especially for QB Curtis Painter, who is finally healthy again, and can erase some of the memories from a disappointing season by exploiting a papier-mache Indiana defense.

Can Indiana make the same claims about wanted to erase bitter memories, and for the seniors to go out in style? No, it is an entirely different situation for the Hoosiers. Depth has been an annual problem for this program as the Big 10 battles take their toll, and note that they are an awful 4-13 ATS as underdogs in the last three games of the season since 2002.

But this autumn it has been even worse. Because of injuries a total of 16 different starters have missed at least one game, and the area hardest hit has been the secondary, where starting safeties Nick Polk and Austin Thomas, and starting CB Chris Phillips, have all been lost for the season. Because of this there is simply nothing left in the tank on that side of the ball, having allowed averages of 42 points and 518.3 points per game in three November outings, and against Wisconsin and Penn State the past two weeks they were out-scored 58-0 in the second half, a tell-tale sign that there is no fight left. And note that as bad as those two games were on the scoreboard, Indiana was actually +6 in turnovers over those eight quarters!

It is more than just emotion here for Purdue – this is a team that could have been much better than the results if not for so many injuries. But not only is Painter as close to full health as he has been in quite some time, Eric Hedstrom and Sean Sester will also be returning in the OL, after each missed the last two games. The pieces were back in place for a blowout anyway, but the special nature of Saturday’s setting pushes the rest of it over the top.

Free Pick: Purdue -11 (-110)

The Arkansas Razorbacks and the Mississippi State Bulldogs may be the two worst teams in the SEC, but at least Arkansas can score and that should make all the difference here.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Mississippi State is one of the most offensively challenged teams in the country, as the Bulldogs are averaging 15.2 points and only 284.1 total yards of offense par game this year. Even those modest numbers are padded by a couple of outbursts vs. weak non-conference opponents (SE Louisiana, Middle Tennessee State), as the Bulldogs are average just 11.0 points in SEC play with their only conference win being by a 17-14 score vs. Vanderbilt.

Now Arkansas may be 4-6, but they are on a 4-1 run against the spread and they have scored at least 20 points in five straight games. Given the struggles of the MSU offense, 20 points may be enough to win this contest.

New coach Bobby Petrino has transformed the Razorbacks into a passing offense, as they are averaging 250.2 passing yards per game. Sure, Casey Dick has been inconsistent while throwing 14 interceptions vs. 11 touchdown passes, but he does have nearly 2400 passing yards, and the way to beat this MSU defense is with big plays, as they are allowing only 3.9 yards per rushing attempt.

Look for Dick and the Arkansas offense to produce enough points to get out of here with a road win.

Free Pick: Arkansas -1½ (-110)

Our Saturday ACC football selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers plus the points at home in Scott Stadium over the Clemson Tigers.

Last week, UVa dropped its second straight game, 28-17 at Wake Forest, and Al Groh's men are now 5-5 on the year.  Clemson also is 5-5, and the winner of this game will have achieved Bowl Eligibility status.

Let's play on the Cavaliers here as Virginia is 17-1 ATS at home vs. ACC foes, provided Virginia lost its previous game, did not cover the spread in that loss, and is not laying three or more points.  Take Virginia.

Free Pick: Virginia +2½ (-110)

Still unbeaten and with a shot for a BCS bid, Boise State takes their 10-0 record into Reno's Mackay Stadium on Saturday where the Broncos should cover against Nevada.

Boise State enters into this WAC Conference tilt against Nevada as one of five Bowl Subdivision teams that remains undefeated on the season with a perfect 10-0 record. The host Wolfpack own a 4-2 record in conference play and are 6-4 on the season, and would love nothing more than to upend the Broncos bandwagon.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]The Broncos in my opinion have gotten stronger and more cohesive on both sides of the rock with each successive outing this season, with the average margin of victory ringing in at 16.8 PPG, with no win coming by less than 13 points. They will be very ready for a football program that they have defeated eight straight times, while covering the number seven times.

The most recent confrontation which occurred in this series was a seesaw battle, that resulted in a 69-67 OT victory for Boise State. That victory was the Broncos third-straight under this venue.

The bottom line here is the Broncos offense can go toe-to-toe with any offense in this nation, including Nevada's vaunted attack. The ultimate difference maker in this matchup, however, comes on the defensive side the ball where Boise is among the nation's elite stop units, ranking first in their conference and second in the country allowing just 10.3 PPG.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Boise State is 27-8 in their last 35 November games with the average margin of the victory clicking in at 26.2 PPG.

Projected Score: Boise St-41 Nevada-30

Free Pick: Boise State -6 (-110)

Laying over four touchdowns may seem like a lot but not in this case. Tulsa comes into this game off two straight setbacks, the last coming on Saturday in Houston to the tune of a 70-30 loss. The Golden Hurricane want nothing more than to take its frustrations out on an opponent and what better one than Tulane.

After starting the season 8-0, Tulsa has not looked like the same team since, but they still lead the nation in total offense and don’t be surprised to see them not let up at all here.

Tulane started the year very promising with a 2-2 record through the first four games that included a narrow loss to East Carolina and a loss at Alabama where the Wave actually outgained the Tide. Since then, it has been six straight losses that all started with a 31-point thumping by Army and it has never recovered. The Green Wave have been outgained in each of their last five games as the once stout defense has fallen apart and injuries have taken their toll on the offensive side.

First it was wide receiver Jeremy Williams, who was having a breakout season through five games before being lost with a leg injury and then running back Andre Anderson, who was 4th in the nation with 860 rushing yards through five games before being lost for the season with a shoulder injury. Since then the offense has averaged only 16.3 ppg and has plummeted to 108th in scoring offense. Tulsa has no defense as witnessed last weekend but Tulane simply does not have the players to take advantage.

Two weeks ago, Tulane had the top-ranked defense in C-USA but has since dropped to third after allowing 1,119 yards over the last two games. Now they must face their biggest challenge of the season. The Golden Hurricane are averaging 583.8 ypg and even a poor effort last week against Houston resulted in 501 total yards. They have gone over 600 yards five times and over 700 yards once and it would not be surprising for them to make it twice after this matchup.

Tulane is coming off a bad loss to UAB and that happened to be at home, which was also its last home game of the season. There is still one game after this but it is safe to say Tulane has tossed it in for the season. Tulsa, while the BCS dreams are dashed, is still hunting for the C-USA Championship despite the loss last week. The Golden Hurricane will need some help from UTEP or Rice to defeat the Cougars but the motivation is still there. Expect a complete annihilation on Saturday in the home finale for Tulsa.

Free Pick: Tulsa -28½ (-110)

We gave our readers of this column another nice winner again last weekend with UCLA defeating Washington 27-7 as our “Towel Tossing” System produced another easy winner. This week we take a look at a conference matchup that is keyed by revenge and becomes the perfect 'conference avenger.'

After surviving a scare last week, LSU hosts an opponent that is not intimidated by Tiger Stadium or the Tigers themselves. The 18th-ranked Tigers return to SEC play Saturday against Mississippi on the heels of the biggest comeback in school history. Coming from behind has been very familiar for LSU at home against Ole Miss.

The Tigers have won six in a row against Ole Miss overall but won the last three at home by a combined seven points, including a 23 to 20 overtime win back in 2006. LSU trailed in the third quarter of each of those games after losing the previous three meetings in Baton Rouge.

The Tigers were also behind in the third quarter last week against SBC opponent Troy by 28 points. They responded with 37 unanswered points with 30 of them coming in the fourth quarter for a 40 to 31 win over the Troy Trojans.

Ole Miss has taken ranked teams to task this season with a couple near-misses and one huge win. They lost 30-28 to then-No. 20 Wake Forest on a late field goal Sep. 6 and fell 24-20 to current No. 1 Alabama on Oct. 18.  But their most impressive game of the season was a 31-30 road win over No. 4 Florida on Sept. 27.

One more note: Before coming over to Ole Miss in the offseason, head coach Houston Nutt led an unranked Arkansas team into Baton Rouge last year and emerged with a 50-48 triple-overtime win. The defeat ended a 16-game home winning streak for the Bengal Tigers, which rebounded to win the SEC Championship and National Championship.

We have a system that is active in this matchup and it says to play on a .500+ conference team (not a favorite of 3+ points or underdog of 22+ points) with less than 11 days rest off a lined, non-conference shutout SU win and seeking revenge for an underdog/pick ‘em SU loss in the last matchup vs. an opponent not off a SU win of 17+ points and ATS win of more than 11 points in their last game. This system has posted a record of 17-0 ATS since 1982 and averages covering the spread by 13.0 points per game.

Good luck with the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday.

Free Pick: Mississippi +4½ (-110)

AiS shows a 72% probability that Kent State will lose this game by three or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 63-28 ATS for 69% since 1992. Play on any team in a game involving two average teams within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents after 7+ games and after outgaining opposition by 225 or more total yards in their previous game.

Northern Illinois is in a few bad spots for this game noting that they are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after playing three straight conference games over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after scoring three points or less in the first half last game over the last three seasons.

Kent State is off a wild win last week against Temple 41-38. The Golden Flashes played well as a team and two of their players gained player of the week awards. Julian Edelman gained offensive player of the week for his QB play and team leadership. Edelman posted his fifth consecutive 100-yard rushing game (sixth of the season) with a 144-yard effort against Temple. He scored a career-high three touchdowns on the ground while averaging 6.5 yards on 22 carries. He also threw for a season-high 232 yards (18-for-26, 1 INT) and a touchdown, giving him 376 yards of total offense.

The performance pushed Edelman over 1,000 yards rushing for the season, making him just the 25th quarterback in Football Bowl Subdivision history to reach 1,000 yards passing and rushing in the same season. In addition, he is the 12th signal-caller in FBS history with 4,000 yards passing and 2,000 yards rushing in a career.

The defensive play of the week award went to Rico Murray. Murray played a key role in KSU's victory over the Owls, making his first interception of the season and recovering a fumble, in addition to making three tackles. His 20-yard return on a fumble late in the third quarter led to a field goal that put the Flashes up by seven points. This positive development will carry over to this game as well; take the Flash.

Free Pick: Kent St. +3 (+105)

The nation's #1 team puts its perfect record on the line Saturday as the Crimson Tide host the Bulldogs in SEC play. It hasn’t been a great season for Mississippi State, as the team comes in with a 3-6 record, including a tough 14-13 home loss to Kentucky two weeks ago. They have been idle since November 1st and figure to be well-rested for this weekend's road clash, where they will try to make their season with a huge upset victory.

Alabama was pushed to overtime by LSU on the road last weekend, but pulled out the 27-21 victory. Nick Saban, who is 10-0 for the first time ever as a head coach, has turned 'Bama into a national power a bit faster than most fans and analysts expected. The SEC title game is already set, as the Tide will play Florida in the championship game, but the team is now trying to take care of business the next w2 weeks to carry an undefeated record into that showdown with the Gators.

Mississippi State relies on their defense, as they have been one of the weakest offensive teams in the nation this season, with the squad averaging only 16 ppg.  Opponents are posting 21 ppg and less than 300 total ypg against the solid Bulldogs “D.”

Overall this season, Alabama is averaging nearly 32 ppg, although they could manage only 21 points through four quarters last week, as they sputtered against the Tigers defense. Opponents are managing a mere 13 ppg against the Crimson Tide, who are one of the best defensive teams in the nation, although teams have had success running on Alabama in recent games, something Mississippi State will certainly look to be doing here, along with their defense keeping them close.

The Bulldogs are embracing this opportunity to play a #1 team for the sixth time in program history, and only its first since 1998. State has won against #1 one other time -- Alabama, in 1980.

"It's a great opportunity for us as a football team," Bulldogs coach Sylvester Croom said. "It's rare that you get a chance to play the #1 team in the country during the course of the season. That opportunity has been afforded us and we're going to prepare as best as we possibly can and go over there and play as well as we possibly can in the hopes of winning a game, on the road, in Tuscaloosa, against the #1 team in the country."

They actually should have a fair amount of confidence coming in here, as State has beaten the Crimson Tide two straight years, not allowing an offensive TD in either game.  In looking at some numbers, we note that Mississippi State is:

• 2-0 ATS this season as an underdog of more than 9 points;
• 3-0 ATS this season vs. undefeated opponents;
• 6-0-1 ATS (+14.4 ppg) as a road underdog of more than 9 points and not off a non-lined SU win over the past 3 seasons;
• 3-0 ATS the past 2 seasons as an underdog vs. opponents playing with revenge;
• 5-0 ATS with rest, including winning the last 4 SU, the last 3 of which were as underdogs, including a victory over Alabama.

Despite being unbeaten, Alabama has some concerns, with QB John Parker Wilson being less than stellar after his outstanding 13-of-16 game against Georgia. In five games since then, he's thrown only two touchdowns and four interceptions, and the passing game has fallen to 100th in the NCAA. Additionally, LSU ran for 201 yards against the Tide defense, and since the open week opposing teams have rushed for over 120 yards per game. Depth has always been the worry for Alabama, and this is the time of the season when players start to get worn down. Coming off a very hard-fought OT game at LSU won’t help matters either.

It should come as no surprise, that with little rest off an overtime game, teams facing rested opponents have not fared well. In fact, we have an NCAA Football Power System that tells us from Game 4 on, play against a team (not a favorite of more than 29 points or underdog of 11+ points) with less than 8 days rest off an OT game vs. an opponent with 10+ days rest and not off an overtime shutout SU loss.

Just since 2004, these teams are 0-14 ATS! The Crimson Tide qualified as a “Play Against” team last season and failed to cover the spread, and now they qualify once again. In looking at some more technical information, we see Alabama is:

• 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of less than 27 points vs. a sub-.500% opponent;
• 0-8 ATS & 1-12 ATS as a favorite of more than 6 points before playing Auburn.

We keep an eye on the pointspread from opening to closing, and a couple of things have caught our notice here. First, we like to play against a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a “key number.' Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think, "Oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread."

This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright. If the line has moved up to the key number or above it after the opening spreads were posted, it's a sign that the public has taken the bait and the favorite, especially if the line move did not happened a day or more after the number was put up. This now allows a sharp bettor to play the underdog without being concerned about the opening line a half-point off a key number.

Secondly, we look to play against a team that was faded by a strong early line move and then favored by later line moves. Early line moves are those that occur in the first few hours after the virgin lines are posted. They are to be respected. The people who move the line early are not fooling around; they are serious players who love to take shots at virgin numbers. The oddsmakers are sharp, but they have to make a line on every game and do make occasional mistakes. Bettors have the advantage of picking and choosing specific games and when they focus on specific games when they first come out, their opinion should be noted with respect. If a line moves strongly during the early period and then heads in the other direction in the normal movement period, we usually have a case for the sharp bettors on one side and the public on the other - a definite scenario for respecting the early move.

Here, we get the best of both situations. Alabama opened as a 20½-point favorite – a ½-point under the key number of 21. The early sharp bettor not only did not bite on Crimson Tide, they went the other way, jumping on the Bulldogs, which dropped the line a full point to 19½ points Sunday night; however, during the week, the public has bet the Tide heavily enough that the oddsmakers responded by bumping the line up and over that 21 key number to 22 points and more.

We’ll back the defensive dogs and fade the public live move, as we look for the Bulldogs to give the tired Crimson Tide quite the scare.

Projected Final Score: Alabama-21 Mississippie St-20

Free Pick: Mississippi State +22½

The 8-2 Georgia Bulldogs will take on fellow SEC member Auburn this Saturday in a surprisingly unimportant affair. Granted, the game still holds big significance to Georgia, but the Auburn half of the equation brings it down a few notches. It is also the Tigers who have us anticipating the score being down a few notches as well, hence our recommended play on the Under.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]If Auburn has proven anything this year, it is that they have difficulty finding the end zone. Despite the Bulldogs suspect defense in recent weeks, Auburn will be hard pressed to score more than two touchdowns, if they can even muster that. The Tigers biggest offensive strength (running game) is Georgia’s biggest defensive strength. And, the Tigers simply do not have the talent this season to overcome a superior opponent. The Auburn offense is averaging just 19.5 points per game this year and they have failed to score more than 17 points in four of their last six games.

Georgia’s offense will probably find the sledding a little tough too this Saturday. While the Tigers defense is not what it was supposed to be, it is still a decent unit, holding the opposition to just 16.3 points per game. In fact, Auburn’s average game score in SEC play this year is 29.17 (six games) and not a single game has gone over 47½.

Look for Auburn to keep it on the ground in order to try to stay in the game. This, along with Georgia’s likely emphasis on the ground game as well, will speed this contest up, allowing for fewer scoring opportunities.

Free Pick: Georgia-Auburn Under 47½ (-110)

The Longhorns did not come out flat last week against Baylor, after losing that heart-breaking 39-33 game at Lubbock the week before. Texas outgained Baylor 494-272 in yards and had 30 FDs to Baylor's nine in a 45-21 win.

However, the loss at Texas Tech cost the Longhorns their No. 1 ranking and maybe a chance to play in the Big 12 Championship game, and possibly the BCS title game. The Longhorns now need help for that to happen, as they will need Oklahoma to beat Texas Tech on 11/22 and then hope that they can finish higher than either the Red Raiders and the Sooners in the BCS standings (the tie-breaker if all three schools finish 7-1). Texas can't do much about how other games play out, so expect them to concentrate fully here at Lawrence, knowing the team doesn't have to play again until their game at College Station on Thanksgiving.

The Jayhawks were once 5-1 (lone loss came at USF, 37-34) but they've dropped three of their last four since then, allowing 43.5 PPG and an average of 369.5 YPG through the air. That includes losses to Oklahoma and Texas Tech, teams which combined to throw for 886 yards, with QBs Sam Bradford and Graham Harrell throwing eight TDs and not a single interception in 95 attempts.

Colt McCoy (244-of-313 / 78.0 percent / 2,879 yards with 28 TDs and 7 INTs / QB rating of 180.3 is 4th in the nation) should sure 'love' that Jayhawks secondary. Lay the points!

Free Pick: Texas -13 (-110)

The 16th-ranked BYU Cougars (9-1) enter into this Mountain West Conference game against Air Force (8-2) in an ATS swoon, as is evident by failing to cover six straight games, thanks in part because of the hefty spreads they have been asked to cover, and also some lackluster efforts.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]The Cougars have not looked as dominant as many thought they would be since taking a 32-7 beating at the hands of a pretty good TCU Horned Frogs team. There is, however, good news on the horizon for Cougar backers as they face a Fly Boys program they have owned in the recent past as is evident by winning four straight in the series by no less than 17 points.

I am betting a BYU offense that has put at least 41 points on the board in their last three games behind the arm of QB Max Hall (71 % passer accuracy, 32 TDs) to let loose with another barrage of points this week. I also expect the Mormons' inconsistent defense to finally stand tall and give coach Bronco Mendenhall a stable effort against a Falcons offense that is easy to read because of a one-way ground attack.

Final Notes & Key Trends: The SU winner in this series has covered 20 of 21 meetings.

Free Pick: BYU -5½ (-110)

Back in an early-season edition of ”Verities and Balderdash,” we focused on the various elements that the 12-game schedule would bring into play, now that all teams are into the rhythm of that being the way of life. This game provides us with a classic example of how we can use one of those edges for our purposes, with a road favorite that may bring little or nothing to the table.

New Mexico will become the first team to call it a season, with the Lobos packing up all of their equipment when this one is over. It is a problem from two directions:

A team that has appeared in a bowl game for seven straight seasons certainly did not plan on the end coming in mid-November, and;

In playing 12 games in as many weeks, the Lobos are the only team at this level that did not have a bye week, and that means both physical and psychological issues for this setting.

The college football season is a long grind, and while there are often humorous references about the academic standards involved at this level, the bottom line is that most of these players do go to class. Much of the anticipated fatigue is negated by the fact that there are continually targets to shoot for – championships, winning seasons, bowl bids, and the last home game for the senior class. But what happens when those targets go away?

We see things like the listless New Mexico loss at U.N.L.V. on Saturday night, when there were still minor bowl hopes in play, and we do not expect to see anything special from Bronco Mendenhall’s team here. Not that they are capable of much anyway, which is one of the prime reasons why they will finish with their first losing record since 2000. The passing game could not deal with the loss of starting QB Donovan Porterie early in the season (they have not reached 200 air yards in a game), and that made it easy for opposing defenses to stack the line of scrimmage, rendering the offensive helpless on many occasions.

Contrast the flat Lobos with the spark that Colorado State will play with. Assuming that Utah goes 12-0 and earns the likely BCS spot that will come along with that, it means that a Mountain West bowl tie-in has been opened up, and Steve Fairchild’s Rams can qualify for that by winning here, and again at Wyoming next week. It is also the last home game for a senior class that includes starting QB Billy Farris, leading rusher Gartrell Johnson (only needs 71 yards to reach 1,000 for the season), and TE Kory Sperry, a potential NFL draft choice. They have beaten Houston and U.N.L.V. on this field, while also taking T.C.U. and Brigham Young to the final possession, creating a perfect 4-0 ATS run in which they have beaten the spread by 42.5 points. The hungrier and fresher team should not have any difficulty winning this one SU.

Free Pick: Colorado St +2½ (-110)

It is homecoming in Clemson but should that really make the Tigers such a large favorite in this spot? I certainly do not think so.

After the loss against Florida St. last weekend, they have dropped four of their last five games and are likely one more loss away from going from a preseason National Championship contender to an early season exit with no bowl invite. There have been some downright huge disappointments this season and Clemson is right at the top of that list.

Duke comes into this game with an identical 4-5 record and while that is a disappointment for the Tigers, it is a huge accomplishment for the Blue Devils. They were picked by many to finish dead last in the ACC Coastal Division and that still may be the case, they are two wins away from bowl eligibility. Winning two of the final three games may not happen but no mater what this season was a success. The four wins have matched the win total from the previous four seasons combined.

Duke has been fantastic against the run of late as it has allowed 117.3 ypg on 3.2 ypc over its last three games. The Tigers have not been able to run the much at all this season and that has been the biggest downfall of this offense. After gaining nothing on the ground against Alabama, the running game flourished for four weeks but has since fallen off again. Clemson is averaging just 59.5 ypg over its last five games while James Davis has totaled only 151 yards rushing on 47 carries (3.2 ypc) over that stretch.

Davis, who last January reversed his decision to bolt early for the NFL, is trying to stay positive but admits it's difficult because “it seems like everything bad happened.” A team that has gone through this is not a team you want to back because it looks at though the white flag is waving and the towel has been tossed in. Clemson does have the same record as Duke but two of its wins came against The Citadel and South Carolina St., both of whom are FCS teams those wins do not count toward bowl eligibility.

Clemson has not covered a home game in its last six attempts and is just 2-9 in the last 11 games following a loss against the number. The Blue Devils have covered five of their last seven games against teams with a losing record and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games including a 2-1 ATS mark this season. Emotion plays a big part in this game and right now, Duke has a big edge in that department and don’t be surprised to see the Blue Devils officially close the door on the Clemson season.

Free Pick: Duke +10½ (-107)

After squeaking out an OT win last week in a highly anticipated game, Alabama now must face a tricky flat spot at home. The Crimson Tide have clinched the West Division and looking ahead to the Auburn game or the SEC championship is a strong possibility.

Mississippi State has had two weeks to prepare for this game and the Bulldogs have won outright the last two years in this series. Mississippi State also owns great defensive numbers and the Tide are overvalued with the high ranking in the polls. Alabama has had horrible recent results in the home favorite role amazingly going 3-18 ATS the last 21 games laying points at home while Mississippi State is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings of this series.

This game will mean a lot more to the underdog Bulldogs and MSU owns a defense that is allowing just 295 yards per game with second ranked pass defense in the nation.

Free Pick: Mississippi St +21½ (-110)

Both of these teams have very deceptive records, as the North Carolina State olfpack have been very competitive despite being just 3-6 straight up, while the Wake Forest Demon Deacons have actually underachieved while going 6-3.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]Case in point is that NC State is currently on a 4-0 run against the spread, and they are 6-1 ATS in their seven lined games since an opening week loss at South Carolina.

The Wolfpack are coming off of a nice 27-17 outright road upset of Duke, and they are averaging a nice 24.4 points and 313.0 total yards per game at home. Comparatively, Wake Forest is averaging just 15.8 points and 280.8 total yards on the road.

Now granted, NC State has a one dimensional passing offense, but that may actually not be a negative in this case. That is because the Demon Deacons are allowing only 3.5 yards per rushing attempt, so the best way to attack this defense is by throwing the ball and making big plays.

If the Wolfpack are successful, Wake Forest has been a major disappointment offensively and we feel they would be unable to match NC State if this turns into somewhat of a shootout. In fact, the Deacons have yet to score more then  12 points in their three conference road games.

Because of this lack of offense, Wake Forest is just 4-5 ATs despite their winning record, and we are looking for them to lose outright here, although getting more than a field goal with NC State is nice insurance.

Free Pick: NC State +4 (-110)

Both Buffalo and Akron are 5-4 on the season, so it's a big game for both sides. But I believe the Bulls are the slightly superior team and in a game that figures close, getting that hook on the FG could be vital.

Buffalo has the better defense, and they're also a perfect 4-0 vs. the number on the road this season. In fact, the Bulls are now 16-5 ATS in their last 21 away games. Akron has really gotten the offense revved up of late with four consecutive games scoring 30 or more points. But they've also been very generous defensively and I believe the Buffalo edge on that side of the ball will be the determining factor here. I'll go for the road dog.

Free Pick: Buffalo +3½ (-110)

A nice winner on these pages last week as our CFB “Momentum Factor” System won with Iowa upsetting the undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions on Saturday.  This week we take a look at a team that has tossed in the towel for the 2008 College Football campaign.

The Washington Huskies are staring at another last-place finish in the PAC 10 and have just recently fired their head coach. The Huskies were 2-7 last season against their conference rivals and 4-9 overall.

This season they are perfect on the year posting a 0-9 record to this point and from all appearances they will be 0-10 after Saturday’s meeting with UCLA.

Huskies head coach Tyrone Willingham was fired after recording an 11-34 record at Washington. Last season they just couldn’t win the close ones as they were 0-5 in games decided by 7 points or less. This season they just cannot get a win and the Alums’ had had enough.

This Huskies team has for the most part thrown in the towel on this season, their coach will not return and they have lost their will to fight. There must be some dissention on the team and in that locker room for the wheels to come completely off this type of program.

UCLA comes to Seattle with a new coach of their own and some signs of progress but these kids know that they are just beginning their journey while the Huskies know they are at the end of this particular era. As the season nears its end teams that have lost at least five games in a row throw in the towel and more or less just show up and go through the motions. Our College System for this week backs that position and cashes the ticket playing against such teams.

Our College System for this week says from Game 9 on, play AGAINST a home underdog of 3½-19½ points off a Saturday SU & ATS loss in its last game, 4 SU & ATS losses before that, and not seeking revenge for an OT SU loss last season. This system has a record of 13-0 SU and ATS and averages covering the spread by 14.9 points per game.

Good luck with the Bruins this weekend.

Free Pick: UCLA -7 (-110)

There will be a bit of a redundancy to this one, but after cashing 5* tickets with Arkansas in each of the first two appearances for Bobby Petrino’s team as an SEC road underdog, we are able to go to the well with outstanding value once again, with the markets now offering +13 across the board.

And in many ways it is the same logic now that we used earlier – a young Razorback team transitioning to a new coaching staff was in no position to take on the likes of Alabama, Texas and Florida in a three-week span, one of the toughest scheduling cycles we have ever charted. But that led to a complete over-reaction as the markets down-graded them off of those results, and that is a big part of why this line is so far off of where it should be.

Since that awful three-week cycle it has been a 2-2 SU but 4-0 ATS run for Arkansas, with the two outright losses coming by a combined three points, and note that those games were all against difficult competition (three of the four teams will definitely be in bowl games, while Auburn still harbors hopes). Now we do not need for them to take this game to the wire, but merely make enough plays to hang around, and that is not asking much at all vs. a pedestrian South Carolina offense that is not a threat to open much breathing room. With a top-notch runner in Michael Smith (987 yards at 5.3 is remarkable considering the schedule he has been up against), and the maturing of Casey Dick in the Petrino system (he has some very talented young receivers to work with), the Razorback offense brings much more potential to the table then their favored opponents in this one.

South Carolina is only averaging 20.5 points in SEC play, but in truth the offense has been even worse than that – there were three touchdowns scored directly by either the defense or special teams in those six games, and in half of those games they could not reach 290 total yards. The OL does not get much push, with leading RB’s Mike Davis and Eric Baker getting amic counts of 3.5 and 3.6 per rush, and even though we are now into November Steve Spurrier has not been able to get either Chris Smelley or Stephen Garcia to take over as the #1 QB. At this point he has not even named a starter for this week, saying that it will be based on who looks best in pre-game warmups (from the Old Ball Coach - “We really think to maximize our team we need to play both of them. ... because our offense has stunk.”).

The South Carolina offensive struggles play to our favor in more ways than one here – not only are the Gamecocks hard-pressed to score, particularly in terms of an inability to make big plays (their longest touchdown of the season was just 34 yards, and they only have one play of more than 50 yards), but because both QB’s have been mistake-prone, Spurrier may go as conservative with a lead here as he did vs. Tennessee last week, when there were 44 running plays vs. only 20 passes. That helps to keep the underdog in the hunt at a most generous pointspread.

Free Pick: Arkansas +13 (-110)

There will be no BCS title game in 7-2 Ohio State's future this year, as Penn State's 13-6 win at Columbus on October 25 put an end to OSU's two-year BCS title-game run. Maybe that's a good thing, as the Buckeyes lost last year to LSU (38-24) and Florida (41-14).

Surprisingly, Northwestern takes an identical 7-2 record into Saturday's home game with the Buckeyes. Northwestern opened the '08 season by going 5-0 and last week's upset at Minnesota was the Wildcats' seventh win this year. It came despite the fact that RB Tyrell Sutton did not play (out for the season) nor did the team's starting QB, CJ Bacher. Junior Mike Kafka played surprisingly well vs the Gophers, completing 12-of-16 passes. Bacher may play here but he hasn't had a good season, tossing 10 TDs and 11 INTs. Whoever plays at QB, they'll get little help at RB as Omar Conteh is the team's top rusher now that Sutton is out, with just 235 YR on the season and a 3.2 YPC average (update: Conteh is expected to miss, leaving NW without a running game!).

Northwestern will face an Ohio State pass 'D' which ranks eighth nationally in passing efficiency (56.1 percent completions / 8 TDs / 12 INTs) and a rush 'D' which has allowed 104.1 YPG, 3.6 YPC and only four TDs.

It will be interesting to see if we see some more of Todd Boeckman at QB for Ohio State, down the stretch. The senior lost his job to super-frosh Terrelle Pryor earlier this year but Pryor's numbers have been mediocre since his four-TD pass game vs Troy on September 20. Before throwing for 226 yards vs Penn State, Pryor had averaged just 104.6 YPG in his four games since the Troy game and in the five games since that win (including the PSU game), Pryor has just two TDs passes.

Running back Beanie Wells was averaging 123.8 YPG (6.1 YPC) in his five games prior to Penn State, but was held to 55 yards on 22 carries by the Nittany Lions. While Penn State is 0-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite this year, let's note that the Buckeyes were favored in those games by 19, 20, 21 and 24 points. In this game, they opened as 11-point favorites, which is a much more reasonable spread.

Ohio State is 32-2 SU vs Northwestern since 1964, including 14-1 in Evanston. The Buckeyes led 45-0 at the half in last year's 58-7 win in Columbus, with Northwestern's lone score coming on a kickoff return TD. The talent-gap is still huge and with a week to 'recover' from the Penn Sate loss, I expect the Buckeyes to roll. Lay the points.

Free Pick: Ohio State -10½ (-110)

The UCLA Bruins host the Oregone St. Beavers in a Pac-10 showdown in Pasadena today knowing they need three wins in their last four games to become bowl eligible under first-year head coach Rick Neuheisel.

Given the fact that they close the campaign out against USC a more accurate way of putting it would be they need wins in each of their next three games. UCLA has a terrific 11-1 ATS mark as a home dog, and OSU is 0-5 SU and ATS mark in this series since 2001.

Look for Neuheisel to improve to 11-0 ATS in his college head coaching career as a home dog against an opponent that won 11 or less games last year here today. Bruins in a surprise.

Free Pick: UCLA +7½ (-110)

There are three teams atop the Pac 10 with one loss. Two of them meet here.

The Cal Golden Bears haven't been a big-game team under Coach Jeff Tedford and are just 1-5 SU/ATS their last six as a dog. Tedford is rotating QBs Nate Longshore and sophomore QB Kevin Riley, trying to find a hot hand. Riley incurred a concussion in Saturday’s win over Oregon and Longshore finished the game. Tedford called Riley the starter "as of now" and said Riley and Longshore would continue to share first-team repetitions in practice.

Longshore has been poor against strong defenses and faces the best in the nation here. Cal is also 0-2 SU/ATS its last two road games, losing 35-23 at Maryland and lost 42-27 at Arizona. Cal is 0-3 SU/ATS the last three years against USC, scoring 17, 9 and 10 points.

USC (7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) is on a roll, outscoring opponents by a 40-7 average. The Trojans rank first in scoring defense, giving up 7 points a game, and second in pass defense (125 yards a game). The offense: 40 points, 204 yards rushing, 256 yds passing per game. They will be motivated for another strong game. Play USC!

Free Pick: USC -22 (-105)