NFL Betting Articles

It’s a new day in the NFL. Or is it?

Reports continue to mount that Brett Favre is itching to 'un-retire' and make his return to the league. It may not happen, and if it does, it may not be with the Green Bay Packers. But this is exactly the kind of situation that can really gum up the betting odds.

We’ll take our chances anyway with these picks in the NFC. Green Bay looks pretty good with or without Favre, and the other top contenders are already set at quarterback.

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys
Full credit to the New York Giants for improving over the course of the 2007 season and winning the Super Bowl. If they do it again, I’ll eat a bug*.

(*NOTE: Bug must be made entirely of Kobe beef.)

The Cowboys are 4-7 favorites to win the division. They added controversial, yet talented, cornerback Adam Jones during the offseason, and they have Pro Bowl wide receiver Terry Glenn coming back after missing most of last year to injury.

Put first-round draft pick and versatile RB Felix Jones from Arkansas in the same backfield as Marion Barber and the Cowboys should be even better than the team that led the NFC in efficiency last year while going 13-3 (9-7 against the spread).

NFC North: Green Bay Packers
Let’s leave Favre out of this for now. QB Aaron Rodgers is stepping into a fantastic situation. He’s going to lead a club that tied Dallas at 13-3 (12-3-1 ATS, best in the NFL). None of the other three teams in the division had a winning record, which is enough reason for the Packers to be favored again at 8-5. But like the Cowboys, Green Bay is a team on the rise. The Pack moved from 15th to fifth in the league last year in efficiency.

There’s more where that came from. The same young offensive line that nearly drove Favre into retirement two years ago became the top pass protection unit in the NFL in 2007, allowing only 19 sacks (3.1 percent sack rate). Rodgers should feel more than comfortable in his first full year under center. And if Favre does come back, bonus for Packers supporters.

NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is the most difficult division to pick. The Bucs are the second favorites at 7-5; oddsmakers have the New Orleans Saints ahead at 6-5. 

But it was more than just the Deuce McAllister injury that derailed the Saints last year. Their pass defense was the worst in the NFL last year in terms of efficiency; that’s not going to improve enough in one season to push New Orleans back to the top of the division.

The Bucs, on the other hand, went 9-7 straight up and ATS despite injuries to RB Carnell ‘Cadillac’ Williams and OT Luke Petitgout. They return to a club that was solid in all aspects of the game last year and should be that much better after plucking Pro Bowl center Jeff Faine off the Saints’ roster.

NFC West: Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have won the NFC West each of the past four seasons with very little opposition. They’re even money to make it five in a row; the Arizona Cardinals are improving, but have too large a gap to close in 2008.

Seattle was the only winning team in the division last year at 10-6 (9-7 ATS). And this was with former league MVP RB Shaun Alexander on his last legs.

Julius Jones comes over from the Cowboys to shore up Seattle’s running game, and the offensive line that faltered after Steve Hutchinson went to Minnesota is on the road to recovery after adding Pro Bowl guard (and former Favre protector) Mike Wahle from the Panthers. They might not make it back to the Super Bowl, but the Seahawks should at least move up from ninth in the efficiency rankings, staving off the competition for another year.

If this were pro-wrestling, Brett Favre would come back as the masked “Dr. Midnight” and play quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings. Then again, you can’t get betting odds on pro-wrestling.

Too bad, because the Favre situation reads exactly like the kind of soap-opera storylines that wrestling milked to death in the ‘90s. Favre is the hero: small town upbringing, boyish charm, 16 seasons of service for the good people of Green Bay. In the Packers front office, we find the evil overlord bosses, refusing to grant Favre his freedom after (perhaps) driving him into retirement. All he needs now is a catchphrase that looks good on a T-shirt. “You’re With Me, Leather” would sell like hotcakes.

So, what’s really happening here? Everybody involved is hiding something, not just from the press, but from each other as well. Here are some of the given circumstances:

• Favre turns 39 years old in October.
• The Packers offense is almost entirely in its early 20s.
• Aaron Rodgers (age 24) is already a fourth-year QB.
• GM Ted Thompson is lukewarm at best about bringing Favre back.

From purely a football perspective, it makes sense for Thompson to move on. The history of 39-year-old QBs in the NFL is short and anything but sweet. Warren Moon (91.5 passer rating) was effective at this age. Len Dawson (65.8) was not. Rodgers was a first-round pick with plenty of promise who will cost millions of dollars less than Favre to employ.

It also makes sense for Favre to leave town. He’s talked before about the age gap between himself and his teammates; although the Packers were 13-3 last year, joining a more veteran team like the 9-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers would still give Favre a reasonable shot at another Super Bowl – plus a big, fat contract playing for a warm-weather club.

Where everything bogs down is this whole “legacy” thing. Someone needs to embrace reality here. Joe Montana and Jerry Rice didn’t spoil their legacies after leaving San Francisco, nor did the 49ers wind up looking like chumps. That came later. Thompson should be pleased he has the opportunity to trade Favre, even for a second-round pick and some tackling dummies. It’s his job to be the bad guy, after all.

MVP Props
Now wouldn’t it be something if Favre did win another Super Bowl. He’d probably get the MVP award if he did; for now, his name is absent from the odds list on the futures market. Tom Brady is the favorite at +300, followed by Peyton Manning at +500 and LaDainian Tomlinson at +600. Nearly everyone on the list is either a QB or a running back, which makes sense, since the Associated Press hasn’t voted in someone from a different position since Lawrence Taylor in 1986.

These MVP awards often come in bunches. Favre won three in a row between 1995 and 1997, then Manning got a pair earlier this decade. Brady has a tough act to follow: himself, after re-writing the record books last year. But he’ll have virtually the same offense surrounding him, and the Patriots should still be a top Super Bowl contender. He’s the man.

ROY Props
The AP hands out Rookie of the Year honors on both offense and defense. They have never voted in a “non-skill” player on offense. Wide receivers rarely get the call; running backs have won 30 out of 39 times, including Adrian Peterson in 2007. This year’s favorite is Oakland Raiders RB Darren McFadden at 3-1, but for value, I like QB Joe Flacco in Baltimore at 50-1. He’s drawn comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger, who won in 2004, and I don’t think the Ravens are far away from respectability.

AP voters have been steering away from the trenches on defense as well, picking five linebackers in a row and seven of the last eight. Jerod Mayo (9-1) will get ample exposure right out of the box in New England, and he’s the best prospect of the 2008 Draft at that position.

Picking the division winners in the NFC wasn't too much of a stretch; only the NFC South was truly up for grabs in my mind – since there's no way I'm putting my money on Tarvaris Jackson (70.8 QB rating) to lead the Minnesota Vikings anywhere.

But figuring out the mighty AFC should be considerably more difficult. Shouldn't it?

Not according to the betting odds. Each of the four divisions has a favorite priced at higher than even money; the 4-7 Cowboys were the only such team in the NFC. We're talking four pretty damn good teams here, too. Yet I only see one of the divisions as being truly airtight. This could prove to be a great year for value handicappers in the AFC.

AFC East: New England Patriots
So the Patriots went 18-1 last year instead of 19-0. And they went 1-8 against the spread to finish out the season. Let's not hold that against them in this case. The Patriots are still the class of the AFC East and the entire league. Barring some catastrophe involving Tom Brady (117.2 QB rating), Gisele Bündchen (36-24-35) and a salad shooter, they're not going to be challenged by the Dolphins, Jets or the Bills. New England is a 1-8 chalk to win the AFC East and rightly so.

You'd have to dig pretty deep to find any aspect of the game of football the Patriots got wrong last year. They finished 19th in defensive run blocking, and their red-zone defense wasn't pristine. New England will focus on improving those areas in camp, content in the knowledge that their offense is all that and a bag of chowder.

AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have the longest odds of any of the AFC divisional favorites at 5-6. They'll get a run for their money from the Browns (3-2) and Bengals (9-2), both of whom are talented yet uncertain commodities capable of who knows what. With Pittsburgh, you know you're going to get QB Ben Roethliserger (104.1 passer rating), one of the absolute best in the game. You're also going to get a defense that was ranked second in the league in efficiency last year.

But the Steelers have been associated with power running for some time, and that was actually their weak link last year. Willie Parker ran for 1,316 yards last year. Big whoop - that was on 4.1 yards per carry, and he got into the end zone twice. I like first-round pick Rashard Mendenhall to come in right away and give Pittsburgh something more useful at running back.

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are a brilliant football team. They're 5-8 to win the South, and they're coming off a 13-3 (9-7 ATS) campaign. Just one problem –  okay, two problems: Jacksonville (11-5 last year) and Tennessee (10-6). None of these three teams is about to slack off in 2008.

As a pure pick, Indy is still the obvious choice. This team is only one season removed from winning the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning (98.0 QB rating) is still in his prime, his Colts offense is outstanding, and the defense improved from 27th to third in efficiency after winning the Super Bowl. But as a handicapper, I'm looking at Tennessee brimming with value at 7-1.

AFC West: San Diego Chargers
San Diego had two different seasons under Norv Turner. In his first year at the switch, the Chargers went 4-4 SU and ATS to start the season, then 7-1 SU and ATS to win the West. They even beat the Colts on the road in the Divisional round and gave the Patriots a rough ride in New England before finally bowing out.

Maybe they would have made the Super Bowl if Philip Rivers (82.4 QB rating) had been at full health. He wasn't the only gimpy Charger last year, either, which makes me unwilling to touch them at 1-6 odds when Denver is lurking. But like the Colts, San Diego has proven itself the team to beat.

A lot of handicappers fool themselves through over-simplified analysis of matchups, just touching the surface by looking at past scoring. I'll show you some of my approaches to handicapping the Arena Bowl, as well as general handicapping tips.

© Copyright 2008. Reprinted with permission of the author.

Hamilton (54) at Calgary (-9)
In my Week 3 report, I indicated the Hamilton Tiger Cats were in a classic letdown spot vs. Saskatchewan and didn’t have a good history of being a good home favorite team. Which makes me wonder if the Tiger Cats will rebound this Thursday vs. Calgary like they did in Week 2 vs. the Argos in Toronto?

The Tiger Cats are a 9-point road underdog vs. the Stampeders at McMahon Stadium this week, but that number has been bet down to 8½ as the early money is coming in on the Tabbies. Hamilton is 6-4-0 ATS vs. the Stampeders as a road dog since ’96 and they’ve seen their last two games go over the total.

Calgary on the other hand is coming off a nice road underdog win over Montreal and has seen the Over go to 17-7-0 when they are a favorite in July. Plus, the Stamps are in a favorable position this week; they are 10-2 SU as a home favorite during Weeks 1-4 of a CFL season. Furthermore, when any CFL team is a -7 to -9½ favorite, after a non-division game, they are 19-1 SU since 1996.

Plus, if you’re a totals player, here’s a nice trend bucking to the Under this week. Hamilton has seen the Under go to 16-3-0 when they are on the road vs. a non-division foe and the total is between 51½ and 54. Check your proline tickets, you might get a 55!

The Stampeders showed a lot of pride last week after a rough first half, but made the right adjustments at halftime and flew out of La Belle Province with a nice 23-19 win over the Alouettes. Hamilton was involved in a great see-saw battle with the Saskatchewan Roughriders, but lost in a controversial way when Riders receiver Weston Dressler got the ball punched out by a Hamilton defender at the 1-yard line and the ball rolled out of the end zone. Had this been the NFL, it would have been ruled a touchback, but since this is the CFL the rule states the ball belongs to the last team that touched the ball and this is why the ball was placed on the 1-yard line for Saskatchewan.

Nevertheless, I just hope Charlie Taaffe is not one of those coaches that is carrying the bad luck cloud, as I’ve seen this movie before!

ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When Calgary plays as the home team coming off a road win as an underdog, the Stamps are 15-2 SU in this role since ’96.

Tiger Cats at Stampeders History: When Hamilton travels to Calgary, they are 8-6-0 (ATS), 3-11 (SU) and the Over/Under is 6-8-0.

Winnipeg (51) at British Columbia (-7)
Sports Handicapping 101 says you should always bet against the team that won in Game 1 of a back-to-back home and away series, but the 0-3 Winnipeg Blue Bombers aren’t gleaming with confidence or showing signs of improving on a weekly basis.

Furthermore, I’m starting to think the broken arm Kevin Glenn suffered in the Eastern Final vs. Toronto last year is playing a psychological role in his ability to perform at a higher level. Or at the very least, pick up where he left off last season as Glenn seems to be misreading his receivers and has not shown any consistency in his actions. Additionally, the Bombers' strength was suppose to be the defense, but they are allowing 34.3 points against a game and are mired in a three-game losing streak SU and ATS.

Plus, statistically speaking, the Bombers are faced with a tough task this Friday night; they are 2-8 SU as a home or away team when the total is between 51½ and 54.

The BC Lions finally got their first win of the season last week in the Peg and are 7-3 SU vs. the Blue Bombers as a favorite. If you’re looking for a low scoring affair, you might be on the right channel this week, the Under is 9-2-2 for the Bombers on the road during Weeks 1-4 after a non-division game. But here’s the bad news for Winnipeg fans: The Lions are 10-2 SU as a home favorite vs. non-division opponents when they are playing on Friday nights.

Lions head coach Wally Buono should be feeling a sense of relief; Jarious Jackson looked composed in the pocket and engineered some nice drives. The lines makers have labeled the 1-2 Lions as a -7.0 point Home Favorite with the Over/Under set at 54. My ATS Calculator has the Lions winning by 14.3 points and the over/under to land on 54.9.

ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When British Columbia plays at home as a favorite versus a non-division opponent and coming off an O over, the Lions are 12-0 SU in this position since ’00.

Blue Bombers at Lions History: When Winnipeg travels to BC Place, they are 8-5-0 (ATS), 6-7 (SU) and the Over/Under is 5-7-1.

Free Pick: Blue Bombers-Lions Under 52

Montreal (52) at Saskatchewan (-6)
One of the reasons I liked Calgary to win straight up last week vs. Montreal was the fact the Alouettes let a huge lead slip in Week 2 vs. Winnipeg, but hung on for the win. However, if you recalled in Week 2 vs. the Blue Bombers, the Alouettes jumped to a 31-7 lead and allowed Winnipeg to crawl back to within seven points. To be honest, this must have been a huge concern for Head Coach Marc Trestman, as this indicated his football team didn’t have that killer instinct to put teams away when they are down and out!

Montreal is in a nice spot here this Saturday; they are 16-4 SU on the road during July games since 1996. In fact, if there’s a team the Alouettes want to face this weekend, it’s the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Montreal is 20-4-1 SU at home or on the road vs. the Roughriders since 1996. But here’s the bad news: the Alouettes are 3-12-3 SU as a road underdog when the spread is 4-7!

Furthermore, Saskatchewan seems to enjoy home cooking the first four weeks of the season as they are 16-4 SU in this spot since 1996. If you’re a situational handicapper, the Alouettes are coming off a two-game home stand and they are 13-7-0 ATS, 14-6 SU, with the Over/Under 8-12-0.

According to many, the Saskatchewan Roughriders are not supposed to be 3-0 on the season and averaging 31 points per game on offense. If you’re wondering how will Saskatchewan will do at home after a road underdog win in Hamilton last week; the Riders are 4-6 SU and ATS, with the Over prevailing seven out of 10 times.

ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When Saskatchewan plays at home coming off a road win as the underdog, the Over is 10-2-0 for the Roughriders in this spot since ’96.

Alouettes at Roughriders History: When Montreal travels to Saskatchewan, they are 6-5-1 (ATS), 9-3 SU and the over/under is 8-3-0.

Edmonton (50½) at Toronto (-3½)
Going from defensive coordinator to head coach is a big jump for a young coach, but it’s a huge leap when you’ve been an assistant coach or coordinator your whole life to the head cheese. In fact, I call it the “Bryan Trottier Rule!” If you recall, Bryan Trottier was an assistant coach for eight years in Pittsburgh and Colorado and then promoted to head coach of the New York Rangers during the 2002-03 season with a 45% winning percentage in 54 games.

Then, there’s the NFL angle, or maybe I should say the NFL PR move on releasing popular kicker and the heart and soul of the team Noel Prefontaine for ex-NFL kicker Mike Vanderjagt.

Now let’s conclude the dysfunctional trifecta with the QB carousel by bringing in Kerry Joseph and stopping the growth of potential CFL star QB Michael Bishop. I have one question, who on earth is making these decisions? A good management team should not fix things that aren’t broken, unless they don’t want it to be broken. Food for thought! Let’s recall, the Argos finished first in the Eastern Division and hosted the Eastern Finals in 2007.

As for this Sunday’s game, here’s another situation of a home-and-away back-to-back series with the Argos hosting the Eskimos at the Rogers Centre. The bookmakers have pinned the Argonauts as a -3½ point home favorite and the total is set at 50½. The Eskimos nearly let the Argos back in the game last week, but pulled away in the fourth quarter for a 47-28 win. The last time the Argos allowed 40 or more points against in a game was in Week 12 of the 2007 season vs. BC, as the Lions beat them 40-7. However, Toronto rebounded nicely the following week vs. Winnipeg 31-23 as four-point home chalk.

Edmonton is a “Jekyll and Hyde” type team as they tend to play well at home, but you never know which Eskimos team will show up on the road, going 6-13 SU on the road in July games since ’97. The last two games have gone Over the total for the Argonauts and since ’96, the Under is 16-9-0 in the following games for the boatmen in this situation.

Edmonton is averaging 31.3 point per game, but they are allowing 31 points against, which much be a concern for head coach Danny Maciocia. Plus, it's not a good spot for the Eskimos this Sunday since they are 6-13 SU as a road underdog in July games since 1997. Tread lightly friends!

ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When Toronto plays as the home team and coming off a road loss as an underdog, the Under is 7-3-0 for the Argonauts in this position since ’96.

Eskimos at Argonauts History: When Edmonton travels to Toronto, they are 9-3-1 (ATS), 6-7 (SU) and the Over/Under is 6-7-0.

Yes, the calendar still says June, but it is never too early to start preparing for the King of all betting sports, the NFL.

In fact, if you know what you are doing, now may be the best time to place some future wagers, as the odds will only get tighter as it gets closer to the season and more sharp action is taking. To that end, here are our first eight NFL Futures of the season, with one being on the Super Bowl winner and the other seven being over/unders on season win totals.

San Diego Chargers +750 to win Super Bowl: First of all, let me preface this by saying that the AFC is far superior to the NFC again this season, so whoever gets out of the conference should win the whole thing. Yes, the AFC was better last year too but the Giants found the perfect karma at the perfect time, but what are the odds of that happening again?

Now back to the point in hand, the Chargers went to the AFC Championship Game last season before losing to then-undefeated New England, and we feel there is enough talent here to take things to the next level. LaDainian Tomlinson had a slow first month of the season last year, yet he still ended up with 1,949 all purpose yards. A faster start this season should see him approach the 2,300 yard level he reached in 2006.

Now the Chargers did lose some depth at the running back position with the defection of Michael Turner, but Jacob Hester will help fill that void. We gained a lot of respect for Philip Rivers when he played with a torn ACL in the playoffs, and San Diego’s starting unit on both sides of the ball can compete with anyone. Finally there are only four 2007 playoffs teams on the schedule this year, which gives the Chargers an excellent chance to dethrone the Patriots as the number one seed.

Miami Dolphins Under 5½ wins: The Dolphins brought in Bill Parcells to try and right the ship after a 1-15 season, but we just don’t think that will translate into more than four more wins. The quarterback threesome of incumbents Josh McCown and John Beck and draftee Chad Henne won’t strike fear into any opponents this season, and Miami’s top two running backs Ronne Brown and Ricky Williams are both rehabilitating after serious injuries. Throw in the uncertainty surrounding “dancing” star Jason Taylor and we look for another dismal season.

Cleveland Browns Over 8 wins: The Browns surprised a lot of people last season, and we feel that they are ready to take the next step this year and compete for a playoff spot. In fact, if the Pittsburgh Steelers slip a little this season, Cleveland has a legitimate shot at winning the division. In any event, at least nine wins seems easily attainable to us after a 10-6 year last year, as we feel that quarterback Derek Anderson will prove to be the real deal, they have some nice young depth behind Jamal Lewis at running back and their youthful defensive front seven will only get better with experience under defensive-minded head coach Romeo Crennel.

Baltimore Ravens Under 6 wins: Let’s see, the Ravens went 5-11 last season with no help from a divided clubhouse, they lost one of the best offensive linemen of all time in Jonathan Ogden to retirement and they had a very questionable draft. Ray Lewis can’t play every position on the field, can he? They are also breaking in a new coaching staff with John Harbaugh taking over as the head man. This is a team in transition that we simply do not see improving on last year’s win total.

Houston Texans Under 7½ wins: Now the Texans are sexy picks this year as playoff longshots, but we are not buying into that just yet. Our major knock against Houston is that they really did nothing to improve a porous pass defense, and that is simply fatal in a division that includes Peyton Manning and the underrated David Garrard. We are also not totally sold on Matt Shaub as a starting quarterback, and although the running back corps looks nice on paper, the backs are all injury prone. The Texans may have a better chance at improving their record if they played in another division, but they will most likely finish last in the AFC South.

New York Giants Under 9 wins: This is a case of the Super Bowl hangover curse striking again. Now no one really believes that the Giants were the best team in football last season, but they rather benefitted by getting hot at the perfect time. In reality, the Giants play in the tightest division in football, and it is not even a given that they make the playoffs this season, let alone make another miracle run. Throw in a tougher non-conference schedule, and we look for the Giants to return to their normal level this year, which translates to no better than  8-8 in the NFC East.

Green Bay Packers Over 8 wins: Many people are jumping off of the Packers bandwagon after Brett Favre’s retirement, but in the immortal words of Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend!” Do not forget that an excellent defense and the emergence of running back Ryan Grant had as much to do with Green Bay’s success as Favre did last season. The Pack also had a nice draft, and we still pick them to win the NFC Central this season over the always underachieving Minnesota Vikings.

Carolina Panthers Over 7½ wins: Now this pick says more about just how bad the NFC South is than it does with Carolina. Still, a healthy Jake Delhomme may be all the Panthers need to go at least .500 this year considering their competition. Steve Smith returns as the top receiver and newcomer D.J. Hackett could do well in a supporting possession receiver role. Also first round draft pick Jonathan Stewart could make an immediate impact in the running game.

The NFL betting season is officially underway. Futures are up for division and conference titles, the Super Bowl, and the over/under on regular-season wins for each team.

The speculative nature of these wagers increases the closer you get to the championship. It’s high-risk, high-reward stuff, but this is the right time to jump in. Training camps are a month away; baseball is still on the front page of the sports section, and the casual NFL bettor is not paying much attention right now.

The simplest strategy for betting the conference and Super Bowl futures is to narrow the field to teams with a reasonable chance of winning, then pick the one which is most undervalued in the market. The New England Patriots, for example, are the favorites to win the AFC at 3-2 and the Super Bowl at 5-2. They are not undervalued, not even after blowing last year’s perfect season by losing the championship to the New York Giants as 12½-point favorites.

The Giants, on the other hand, have some value at 4-1 to win the NFC and 10-1 to defend their title. This was one of the hottest teams in the latter stages of the 2007 season, going 7-2 straight up and 8-1 against the spread from December onward. The development of QB Eli Manning and the team’s new 4-3 defense under first-year coordinator Steve Spagnuolo provided the championship fuel; Spagnuolo signed a three-year contract to stay with Big Blue, arguably a more important offseason news item than the retirement of DE Michael Strahan.

From a value perspective, however, the Giants don’t have much room for growth. They’ve already risen from 5-1 (NFC) and 12-1 (Super Bowl) at the open; only the Dallas Cowboys (2-1, 9-2) have shorter betting odds in their conference. Dallas has also risen from 3-1 and 6-1, in part because of the partial lifting of CB Adam (no longer Pacman) Jones’ suspension. Not a lot of value left there for America’s Team.

The only competitive team in the NFC to see its odds shrink is the Green Bay Packers. They slipped from 11-4 and 7-1 following the retirement of QB Brett Favre to 5-1 and 12-1. This is a better opportunity for a speculative wager, based on the potential of new starting QB Aaron Rodgers. He’s had three years under Favre’s wing, and his 20-for-28 performance last year in spot duty was very encouraging for Packers supporters.

In the AFC, last year’s top clubs are all crowding behind the Patriots at the top of the odds list:

Any of these four would be a better value pick than New England, but the return on investment remains fairly low. Pittsburgh has the most value among this top tier of Super Bowl candidates; the Steelers were champions just two seasons ago, and the first year of the Mike Tomlin Era proved to be successful at 10-6 (8-8 ATS). The Steelers upgraded their running game by drafting Rashard Mendenhall in the first round, a wise move given the ineffectiveness of the Willie Parker-Najeh Davenport combo. Pittsburgh ranked 17th in the league in rushing efficiency last year.

None of the aforementioned teams would be as big a Super Bowl surprise as the 2007 Giants. For those looking to go deep, the AFC’s Cincinnati Bengals (18-1, 38-1) and the NFC’s Philadelphia Eagles (18-1, 45-1) have the most to offer. They both underperformed last year according to “Estimated Wins” as compiled by Football Outsiders; the 7-9 Bengals had 8½ Estimated Wins, while the 8-8 Eagles had 9½.

Philadelphia looks especially tasty after a strong draft and the offseason acquisitions of CB Asante Samuel and RB Lorenzo Booker. The health of QB Donovan McNabb is always a concern, but at these odds, a small investment could reap huge profits.

It’s time to put a lid on the NFL Silly Season. The draft is done, the coaching carousel has stopped spinning, and the league’s annual offseason nightmare of arrests and scandals is over. It’s time now for training camp arrests and scandals.

Pacman Jones found his name back in the press after paying a $20,000 debt to Caesars Palace. Jones was traded from Tennessee to the Dallas Cowboys last month for a fourth-round pick at the 2008 Draft. He was suspended all of last year for various off-field incidents (including six arrests) and still needs to apply for reinstatement before he can make his debut at cornerback for the Cowboys.

Underneath the controversy is a very talented football player who can help the Cowboys’ defense improve from last year’s No. 10 position in the NFL efficiency rankings. So can linebacker Zach Thomas, who says he’s healthy after playing just five games with the Miami Dolphins in 2007. Thomas went to seven Pro Bowls in 12 years with Miami. The betting odds on the Super Bowl futures market have the upgraded Cowboys steaming from 6-1 at the open to 9-2.

While players like Jones get multiple chances, LB Ezra Butler might not get a second one at the NFL. The San Francisco 49ers had the undrafted rookie from Nevada in camp, but let him go after misdemeanor DUI/marijuana charges.  Meanwhile, Dolphins CB Will Allen is being investigated for allegedly pulling a gun on a man during a monetary dispute. Reports suggest the league could punish Allen, but only if the dispute is found to be gambling-related.

The Jones deal is just one in a surprisingly busy trading season for the NFL. Jason Taylor could be the next marquee player to change uniforms, although the Dolphins insist they won’t trade the six-time Pro Bowl defensive end for anything less that a first-round pick. That’s not likely to happen.

Former Vikings DE Erasmus James, on the other hand, has a new home in Washington after being dealt for a conditional draft pick. If James is healthy (a mighty big 'if' after three knee surgeries), the Redskins have a new pass rushing threat on a line that was 26th in the league in sack rate last year.

Business picked up some more this week with a pair of important depth moves in the backfield. The Denver Broncos signed former Bucs RB Michael Pittman after incumbent starter Travis Henry injured his hamstring in camp last week. And the New York Jets continue to focus on the running game, inking free-agent halfback Musa Smith to a contract after five years as a reserve with the Ravens. Kevin Jones and Ron Dayne are also auditioning for jobs; former MVP Shaun Alexander, though, appears to be having a hard time drumming up interest.

Most of these minor deals will have no impact on the futures market. The only top team besides Dallas to see a notable change in their Super Bowl betting odds was the Green Bay Packers, who fell from 7-1 to 12-1 following the retirement of Brett Favre. But Favre remains the talk of the league even when he’s not around, so much so that the Packers have decided to keep Favre’s locker at Lambeau Field intact. Coach Mike McCarthy spoke of unspecified "plans for the future" when asked about the locker. Could those plans involve Favre starting for the Packers in 2008? It could happen – in which case Green Bay’s Super Bowl odds would go right back up. Just don’t hold your breath.

The NFL offseason is officially over. For handicappers, that is. The brief interlude between the Super Bowl and the start of the Scouting Combine is over. How serious is the NFL about selling these glorified auditions to interested parties? Check out their tantalizingly in-depth coverage on the NFL Network and on the flagship website. If Jake Long stubs his toe or tests positive for lactose intolerance, you’ll hear about it.

What we have heard of Jake Long at the combine is that the former Michigan offensive tackle has been very impressive: first at his position in bench press, vertical jump and the 3-cone drill. It could be enough, as ESPN’s Pat Yasinskas suggests, to convince the Miami Dolphins to draft Long first overall and give John Beck (or whomever ends up with the Dolphins QB job) some badly-needed protection.

But Bill Parcells has more pressing issues on defense to deal with – the league’s worst defense last year in terms of efficiency. Either LSU tackle Glenn Dorsey or Virginia DE Chris Long has reason to be No. 1 on Miami’s list. Dorsey is the better prospect, but revealed last Sunday that he suffered a hairline fracture to his right tibia during a weight-room accident back in 2006. That might be just spooky enough to convince Parcells to go Long.

Whomever Miami drafts, it’s going to take a while for Parcells to rebuild this 1-15 (5-8-3 against the spread) ruin of a football team. That’s why you’ll find the Fish at the bottom of the NFL futures market, priced at 150-1 next to the Atlanta Falcons. You won’t find either of those teams, however, in Chance’s Top 10 Super Bowl XLIII value picks.

1. Philadelphia Eagles (45-1): Simply too much talent on this team to ignore at these odds. Finished last year with 9.5 Estimated Wins while going 8-8.

2. San Diego Chargers (10-1): Figured things out as the 2007 season progressed under new coach Norv Turner. Philip Rivers proved the doubters wrong with a superb playoff drive.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-1): The Jags don’t have quite as much value as years past after David Garrard’s breakout campaign. But Gregg Williams has arrived to fix the rather average Jacksonville defense.

4. Tennessee Titans (30-1): Even with Albert Haynesworth’s injury woes and Vince Young’s occasional growing pains, the Titans were good enough to go 10-6 (8-8 ATS) last year. They have the top-ranked defense in the NFL and upside with Young at the helm.

5. Indianapolis Colts (6-1): The Manning Dynasty hasn’t reached the end of its cycle just yet. Peyton has an excellent crack at a second Super Bowl ring with this well-run Colts organization.

6. Chicago Bears (25-1): When you have one of the most fearsome defenses around (when healthy) and Devin Hester leading the top special-teams unit in the NFL, you only need some consistency from Rex Grossman, not heroics.

7. Dallas Cowboys (6-1): The Cowboys are on the cusp of greatness, but how much money are they willing to pony up to sign UFAs like Julius Jones and Ken Hamlin?

8. Green Bay Packers (7-1): Green Bay’s short odds suggest this team was more than just a flash in the pan in 2007. Nearly every Packer except Brett Favre is a young, developing player with a bright future.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (28-1): The Bucs managed to stay competitive even after OT Luke Petitgout and RB Carnell Williams were lost for the season. Jon Gruden still has plenty of Super Bowl coaching mojo.

10. New England Patriots (5-2): And we thought the Patriots were motivated last year.