As lightning quick as their rise to the top of the NHLwas, winning the Stanley Cup in 2003-04 just 11 years after first taking to the ice, Tampa Bay's fall from the top has been just as fast with the Lightning winning a league-low 31 games last season. But after a busy offseason, starting with drafting Steven Stamkos No. 1, re-signing star Vincent Lecavalier and hiring Barry 'The Mullet' Melrose to coach, Tampa's on the rise again.

The Tampa Bay Lightning went from Stanley Cup winners to dead last in the NHL in the blink of an eye. At this rate, they’ll be back in the penthouse in no time.

Tampa Bay has been the biggest mover and shaker during the offseason. With new owners and a new front office led by former player and agent Brian Lawton, the Bolts have made aggressive moves to improve a club that had lost its way after winning the Cup in the last season before the lockout. It might even be enough of a push to get the Lightning back into title contention at 45-1 on the NHL futures market. Look at this impressive haul:

Free agents: Ryan Malone, Gary Roberts, Mark Recchi, Radim Vrbata, Olaf Kolzig, Adam Hall, Andrew Hutchinson, Wyatt Smith, Brandon Bochenski.

Trades: Matt Carle, Ty Wishart.

Draft: Steve Stamkos.

In addition to these and other new faces, the Bolts shelled out an 11-year, $85-million contract extension to keep Vincent Lecavalier in the fold until 2020. Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis and uber-prospect Stamkos will wreak havoc on Eastern Conference goaltenders this season. They could still use some help on the blueline, but the summer is young.

The Chicago Blackhawks made arguably the biggest splash in the Western Conference by signing defenseman Brian Campbell to an eight-year deal, then adding goaltender Cristobal Huet for four seasons. The former Buffalo Sabre was the top blueliner available on the market, a two-time All-Star who scored 19 points in 20 games after going to San Jose at the trade deadline. Huet was another deadline deal, helping the Washington Capitals make the playoffs with 11 wins in 13 games between the pipes.

Chicago’s moves thus far have boosted the club’s Stanley Cup odds from 40-1 to 35-1. The Blackhawks have been working their way back into playoff contention under Dale Tallon, their former defenseman and current general manager. The blossoming of rookies Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews got them within three points of the postseason; the Hawks should get over the hump this year and pose a legitimate (if outside) threat for the Stanley Cup.

The defending champion Detroit Red Wings are the other team to see its betting odds move, from 5-1 to a chalky 4-1. And it only took one marquee signing: Marian Hossa, who spurned bigger dollars elsewhere to sign a one-year, $7.45-million deal with Detroit. The Wings also re-signed blueliner Brad Stuart and picked up some backup goaltending in the form of Ty Conklin, but Hossa (26 points in 20 playoff games for Pittsburgh) is the prime market mover. He adds to Detroit’s scoring punch while taking away from the top Eastern contenders.

The Mullet is back on the NHL ice.

Pittsburgh has lost quite a lot of talent to the Lightning and Red Wings, but the additions of Miroslav Satan and Ruslan Fedotenko will keep the Penguins competitive in the East. In an offseason where so many of the remaining free agents (Jaromir Jagr, Ray Emery, et al) are choosing to play in Europe, that leaves one man at the top of everyone’s list: Mats Sundin.

The biggest deal on the table for the 37-year old Swede is reportedly from the Vancouver Canucks: two years, $20 million. That’s a lot of money, but the Canucks are in something of a rebuilding mode and priced at 30-1 to win the Stanley Cup. The Montreal Canadiens (10-1) could lure Sundin, who has yet to win the biggest prize in hockey, with two years at $16 million. He’s aging very gracefully indeed – 78 points in 74 games last year, enough to put a team like Montreal into elite territory. Les bon temps are back.

Picked as the favorites to win the Stanley Cup before the season started, the Detroit Red Wings followed through to claim their 11th NHL Championhip, and fourth Cup in the last 11 seasons.  Already installed as the favorites for next season, the Wings will have to defend their title without Dominik Hasek, the only goalie to win consecutive Hart Trophies, is expected to announce his retirement.

The easy pick turned out to be the best one.

The Detroit Red Wings were the preseason favorites to win the Stanley Cup, and they fulfilled those expectations last week by beating the Pittsburgh Penguins in the NHL final. Despite their status as a public team, the Wings earned 9.48 units during the playoffs to go along with a hefty 11.51 units in the regular season.

Detroit proved the value of redundancy by keeping two veteran goalies with previous Stanley Cup experience in Hockeytown. When Dominik Hasek’s level of play fell off in the middle of the first round against the Nashville Predators, Chris Osgood stepped in and won 14 of the next 18 games. The Wings also proved the value of conditioning, as their crew of thirtysomethings failed to tire against young Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Nicklas Lidstrom and his partners on the Detroit defense have as much to do with the team’s success as the goaltending. The Red Wings were the stingiest team in the league during the regular season, allowing just 23.5 shots per game. In the playoffs, against increased offensive pressure, that number ballooned to 23.6 shots per game. Osgood’s hot streak during the playoffs (.930 save percentage) made the Wings that much more difficult to beat.

This will reportedly be the end of Hasek’s stellar NHL career. He was part of the original flood of Soviet Bloc talent into the league, leaving the former Czechoslovakia and eventually making his debut in goal with the Chicago Blackhawks in 1990. Hasek also revolutionized the position with his flopping style; now the league is filled with talented, floppy goalies from all over the world. The under earned a slight profit on the season at 628-557 (53 percent) despite the constant rules changes meant to increase scoring – next up could be even smaller goaltending equipment.

Detroit is already the 5-1 favorite to defend its championship on the 2008-09 Stanley Cup futures market. Pittsburgh, expected to build on a successful season, is the second favorite by a whisker at 11-2. The next tier of Cup candidates includes the Montreal Canadiens at 10-1; the Habs were the most profitable team in the league during the regular season at 14.9 units before getting upset by the Philadelphia Flyers in the Eastern Conference semifinals. Montreal supporters had to give back 6.58 units of their earnings after their playoff meltdown.

There is no offseason anymore. Attention now shifts to roster movement; retirements, trades, coaching hires, and the 2008 NHL Entry Draft on June 20-21. The San Jose Sharks are tied with Montreal on the Cup futures market at 10-1 even though they didn’t have a coach at press time, or a pick in the first three rounds of the draft. But they will have Jeremy Roenick back for his 20th season. Roenick’s revival kept San Jose’s playoff drive on track, even while just about everyone except Joe Thornton was having a bad year.

Just like the games themselves, the NHL draft doesn’t receive the same coverage in the United States that it does in Canada – and that coverage comes and goes depending on the star talent available at the top. This year’s draft has talent and depth, but not the elite star power of a Sidney Crosby. That will have to wait until 2009 and the arrival of John Tavares. The Oshawa Generals center and captain was six weeks old when Hasek made his first NHL start.

For this year’s No. 1 pick, the Tampa Bay Lightning are universally expected to take another center: Steven Stamkos. He’s coming off two successful years with the Sarnia Sting, scoring 58 goals in 61 games this past season. Stamkos will be expected to restore some of the scoring punch Tampa Bay sacrificed in the Brad Richards-Mike Smith deadline trade. The Lightning are interesting Cup long shots at 45-1 with Smith in goal and Stamkos coming to town, along with a new coach to replace John Tortorella.

Hockeytown was so close to adding a new Stanley Cup to its collection Monday night. Less than a minute away from winning their 11th NHL Championship, the Red Wings saw Penguins center Max Talbot knot the score, whacking the puck past Detroit legend Chris Osgood to force OT with Pittsburgh ultimately winning in the third extra period.  Now the series shifts to the Steel City.

The Detroit Red Wings were 35 seconds away from drinking champagne out of the Stanley Cup. So close.

Instead, Max Talbot became one of the least likely heroes in the strange and sometimes successful history of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Talbot scored the game-tying goal with the Pittsburgh net empty to rescue the Pens from elimination. It took another 50 minutes of overtime before Petr Sykora went top corner on Wings goaltender Chris Osgood to secure a 4-3 victory and a Game 6 in Pittsburgh on Wednesday night.

The Penguins were massive +230 underdogs in Game 5 at Joe Louis Arena. Detroit showed why by outshooting the Pens 58-32, coming back from an early 2-0 deficit to take the lead with a pair in the third period. But Marc-Andre Fleury held up under the pressure. His 24 overtime saves extended Pittsburgh’s lifespan long enough to take advantage of a double-minor high-sticking penalty by Detroit’s Jiri Hudler.

Pittsburgh is now 0.30 units in the black in this series despite trailing three games to two. Odds had yet to be posted at press time because of the very late finish – just before 1:00 a.m. Eastern, which will certainly play a fatigue factor as both teams travel back to the Igloo for Game 6. Pittsburgh’s youth will be to its benefit in this case.

The Penguins will be very concerned about the health of defenseman and power-play quarterback Sergei Gonchar, who made a surprise appearance to help orchestrate Sykora’s game-winner with Hudler in the penalty box. Gonchar had been on the bench with back spasms for the entire overtime session after going heavily into the end boards during the second period. That left Pittsburgh with just five very tired defenseman against the Red Wings’ attack.

Gonchar indicated after the game that he believed he would be fine for Wednesday. “I will have to try and skate,” Gonchar told the Canadian Press. “We’ve made progress so far, and hopefully that will continue and I will be able to play in Game 6.”

Pittsburgh supporters share the same hope. Gonchar’s timely assist ties him with Detroit’s Nicklas Lidstrom, Niklas Kronwall and Brian Rafalski with 13 playoff points from the blueline. Ryan Whitney is next on the list for Pittsburgh with six points. Gonchar’s importance was further illustrated during the overtime; the Red Wings had already been penalized twice in “sudden victory” for goaltender interference, but the third time was the charm with Gonchar at the point.

Special teams are the great equalizer that adds value to an underdog with a competent power-play unit. The Pens were fourth in the league during the regular season with a 20.4-percent success rate on the man advantage, bumping that up to 21.8 percent in the playoffs. That’s hard to do against the higher quality of opposition in the postseason. Detroit’s power play, on the other hand, has slipped from 20.7 percent to 18.4 percent. The Red Wings are 3-for-27 against Pittsburgh, while the Pens are 3-for-22, scoring once in each of the last three games.

The Penguins have played 10 games at the Igloo during the 2008 postseason. They won all eight in the first three rounds before splitting a pair with Detroit in this series. The under is 3-1-1 and was well on the way to 3-0-2 before Talbot’s goal extended the Stanley Cup final. The very early total for Game 6 was pegged once again at five goals, with the under priced at +120.

Wednesday night’s game is an 8:00 p.m. start on NBC in the United States, and on the CBC for Canadians and discerning American viewers near the border.

It looks like it is going to be a formful Stanley Cup Finals, but that has not always been the case in the NHL with so many early round upsets in the past. Once we get to the finals though, the higher seed remaining has hoisted the Cup every year this decade, and blindly playing the team with the better record has been profitable. This has been especially true in the post-strike era, and we don't expect anything to change now.

Well, it looks like it will be the Detroit Red Wings taking on the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Stanley Cup Finals, just as a lot of experts predicted.

After all, the Red Wings had the best record in the NHL, and while the Penguins were actually the second seed in the East, they entered the playoffs as a much hotter team than the Montreal Canadiens, who were one of the more vulnerable top seeds in recent memory.

Now, getting a highly anticipated Stanley Cup Final has actually been quite rare, as the early rounds of the NHL Playoffs have produced more upsets proportionally than any of the other major North American sports. That said however, once we get to the finals, they have actually been very true to form regardless of the participants. In fact, the finalist with the higher seed has won the Stanley Cup in all seven playoff seasons this decade so far (remember the 2004-05 season was wiped out by the players’ strike), which bodes quite well for the Red Wings this year.

In fact, if you just blindly played the higher seed in every game of the finals since the 2000-01 season, you would have gone 24-14, 63.2 percent, +5.70 units. Now keep in mind we said play the higher seed every game, which is not the same thing as playing the favorite in every contest. If we had taken the latter approach, the record would be 25-13, 65.8 percent, but for only +2.46 units, less than half the amount of continuously betting the higher seed.

Now the dominance of the better teams has been even more evident in the two finals since the strike, the “New NHL” Era. Over the last two playoff season, favorites have gone 10-2 for +5.71 units, while higher seeds are 8-4, +3.55.

Upsets simply do not happen that often in the Stanley Cup Finals, but on the rare occasions that they do, the better teams have historically been a great bet to bounce back next game. Since 2001, if a higher seed is coming off of a loss, it is 11-3 next game for an impressive +9.55 units, while all favorites off of a loss have gone 12-2 for an identical +9.55.

Shifting our focus to totals, the Under is 20-14-4, 58.8 percent since 2001, with a low combined average score of just 4.50 goals per game. Now, the goal of the “New NHL” was to open up the game and increase scoring, but over the last two year, that Under percentage has actually risen to 60.0 percent at 6-4-2. A closer look however reveals that scoring is indeed up, with an average combined score of 5.17 goals per contest, and that the success of the Unders is entirely due to the totals being set higher.

So what do we do in the Stanley Cup Finals this season? Well, if history repeats, it would be safe to play the Red Wings every game, increasing our bets to Best Bet levels if they are coming off a loss. Furthermore, we would use the “New” average of 5.17 as our total gauge, playing the Overs at 5 and the Unders at 5½.

The Detroit Red Wings didn't just win the first two games of the Stanley Cup Finals, they dominated the Pittsburgh Penguins who were held scoreless in both games thanks to solid goaltending by Chris Osgood.  Now the series shifts to the Steel City where the Penguins look to return some of the hospitality they experienced in Motown.  Can the young Pens get back on track at home?

Well, that was no way for the Detroit Red Wings to treat their guests. It’s one thing to beat the Pittsburgh Penguins twice at Joe Louis Arena, but by a combined score of 7-0? And outshooting them 70-41? Why not put a diaper on Sidney Crosby while you’re at it?

The Penguins are now officially on the endangered species list. Only one team in the history of the NHL has won the Stanley Cup after coming home down 0-2 in the finals: the 1970-71 Montreal Canadiens. The Habs went on to dominate the 1970s, and while Crosby and the Penguins are considered a dynasty in the making, they’re being compared instead to the 1982-83 Edmonton Oilers who were humiliated in four games by the mighty New York Islanders of Mike Bossy and Bryan Trottier.

The argument here is that a team has to learn to lose before it can learn to win. The young Penguins are getting schooled by the veteran Red Wings. But why make that inference? Every dynasty has to start somewhere. It took the Islanders a while to take control of the Cup away from Montreal because the Habs were at their peak. Then Ken Dryden retired. You could just as easily make the inference that a rising team has to wait for the reigning dynasty to crumble before it’s their turn.

It’s Job No. 1 for handicappers to separate fact from inference. Sharp handicapping is based on facts, and it’s a fact that getting a win on the road is a challenge. When this series moves to the Mellon Arena for Wednesday night’s pivotal Game 3, the Penguins will have home-ice advantage. Pittsburgh was 26-10-5 at home during the regular season and 21-17-3 on the road. Detroit was 29-9-3 at the Joe and 25-12-4 away.

Anyone who’s ever travelled on business knows how draining it can be. Now imagine playing a hockey game in front of 20,000 hostile Detroiters instead of doing a seminar. Now imagine the hotel you’re staying in is actively trying to sabotage your chances of winning by pulling fire alarms in the middle of the night and doubling the amount of alcohol in your drinks at the bar. This is life on the road.

The Penguins appeared to get a taste of Detroit hospitality before Monday’s Game 2. False alarms went off at the team’s hotel at 1:30 a.m.; according to team officials, they were woken up again a half-hour later with an announcement that the alarms were indeed false. Draw your own conclusion.

The Red Wings are a quality team. They earned home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs with the best record in the league at 54-21-7, raking in 11.51 units on the moneyline. That’s why the Wings were -160 favorites to win the Cup at the start of this series. It’s just not going to be as easy getting it done at the Igloo, where Pittsburgh is 8-0 during the playoffs and hasn’t lost a game in three months.

The young Penguins aren’t talking like they’re rattled, either. "We showed that we can play with them," goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury told ESPN after Monday’s loss.

That’s a rosy view of Pittsburgh’s play in the first two games of this series, but it’s exactly the right view a talented and confident team like the Penguins should have.

Wednesday’s face-off is at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on NBC.

The quest for Lord Stanley's hardware is now down to two teams as the Pittsburgh Penguins, the No. 2 seed from the East, and the Detroit Red Wings, No. 1 in the West, will begin the championship series this Saturday in Hockeytown. The Wings are the early favorites for both the series and Game 1 when the first puck will drop at 8:00 p.m. Now word yet on the Over/Under for octopi on the ice.

It’s a great day for hockey. But we’ll have to wait until Saturday for the Detroit Red Wings to host the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game 1 of their Stanley Cup final.

That leaves more time for handicappers to get both hands on the stick and figure out this best-of-seven series. Early betting odds have the Red Wings as -160 favorites to win the Stanley Cup, and -165 to win Game 1 in the octopus-filled confines of Joe Louis Arena. That’s how important home-ice advantage is expected to be for the Winged Wheel.

There is a lot to like about both these clubs. You can’t ask for much more than what goaltenders Chris Osgood (.931 save percentage in the playoffs) and Marc-Andre Fleury (.938 SV%) have provided. These are the top two defensive teams in the postseason – as well as the top two scorers. Pittsburgh has the slight advantage in goal differential at 1.8, although Detroit’s rises from 1.5 to 1.9 when Dominik Hasek’s work in the first round is taken out of the equation.

Saturday night will be the first time these two clubs have met since 2006. A lot has changed since then, especially for the Penguins. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Marian Hossa have all been brilliant this postseason. They’ve scored 22 goals among them in 14 games, giving Pittsburgh the edge in sheer offensive talent.

The Red Wings respond with depth at every position, giving them the advantage on the blueline. This matchup is a wash provided Johan Franzen (12 goals in 11 games) is able to play for Detroit on Saturday. Franzen’s status remained unclear at press time after he missed five games with post-concussion symptoms.

From a value perspective, the Penguins are just about everything a bettor could ask for. They’ve only recently popped back onto the radar screen after five years of misery in Pittsburgh, while the Original Six Red Wings have been scoring with their “Hockeytown” marketing campaign over the past decade-plus, supporting the hype with three Stanley Cups – but none since 2002, when Scotty Bowman was coach.

The Penguins are a young, emerging team salted with a few grizzled veterans like Gary Roberts (age 41) and Darryl Sydor (age 36). Detroit’s roster is made up almost entirely of salt. Which brings us to the old “age vs. experience” debate. The fashionable way for statheads to deal with that debate is to throw it out the window, but conventional wisdom still holds sway over the betting public, and conventional wisdom says the Red Wings “know” how to win in the playoffs. Either way, Pittsburgh’s fresher legs are better equipped to survive a 100-game season.

The value difference between the two clubs can be inferred from the early betting reports for Saturday’s matchup. Nine out of ten bettors were on Detroit to win, but 81 percent of the action (and climbing) was on the Penguins. That suggests a lot of small, public money wagered on the Wings; the casual bettor is more likely to drop some cash on Game 1 after work on Friday, or mere moments before the opening face-off.

Saturday’s game in Detroit is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time. It will be shown on Versus in the United States and the CBC in Canada. The total for Game 1 is pegged at 5.5 goals; the under is 8-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 10 on the road and 7-3-1 in Detroit’s last 11 at JLA.

The real “New NHL” has finally arrived, as Stanley Cup Playoff games have been higher scoring than recent years, with the Over hitting at 57.4 percent so far. That Over success should continue next round.

Well, it may have taken two years, but it looks like the NHL has achieved its objective by changing the rules after the players’ strike, as the Stanley Cup Playoffs this season have been the highest scoring in recent memory.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner]A total of 54 games have been played through the first two rounds, and the Over is 31-23, 57.4 percent to this point with an average combined total score of 5.47 goals per game. This is a far cry from all the clutching and grabbing from recent playoff seasons, when totals set at 4½ or even 4 were more commonplace.

That is obviously not the case this season, where totals of 5 are being busted left and right, sometimes at nice plus odds. Furthermore, playoff games involving the four teams in the conference finals have averaged a combined 5.64 goals so far, meaning the Overs are even worth a peak at 5½, especially in the Eastern Conference where the Pittsburgh Penguins are facing the Philadelphia Flyers in an all-Pennsylvania final.

The only defensive-minded club out of the final four is the Dallas Stars, but the fact that they are facing the well-balanced Detroit Red Wings may force Dallas to open up a bit more than they would like, as they cannot count on limiting the Wings to two goals per game like they did to their first two playoff opponents.

So will this abnormally high percentage of Overs continue over the final two rounds? We have every reason to believe they will, based on these matchups.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers: The Flyers have been the most wide-open of the playoff teams, with their games averaging a whopping 6.41 goals in the post-season! Pittsburgh playoff games are averaging 5.33 goals, but keep in mind they played the most defensive-conscious team in the East in the second round in the New York Rangers. Now, the Flyers did win 2-0 the last time these clubs met on April 6, but that contest meant nothing to the Penguins. These teams played six consecutive Overs this season prior to that finale, and five of those six games saw at least seven goals scored. Furthermore, higher scoring games increase the probability of a team winning by more than a goal, and the Penguins are winning by an average of +1.56 goals this post-season. Thus, in addition to the Overs, the Pittsburgh Puck Lines may also be worth a look.

Detroit Red Wings vs. Dallas Stars: Red Wings games are averaging 5.90 goals this post-season, and they are winning their games by a very impressive average margin of +1.70 goals per game. So the question is, will their games be as high scoring vs. a Stars team whose playoff games are averaging just 4.92 goals? That is open for debate, as it was the Under that went 2-1-1 in the four regular season meetings. The lone Over did come the last time the clubs met though, in a 5-3 Detroit victory in March. Also, the Red Wings are just steamrolling their opponents right now, scoring four or more goals in all four games of their sweep of the Avalanche, culminating with an 8-2 wipeout on the road at Colorado in Game 4.

Conclusion: Unlike past playoffs, when we would go nowhere near the Overs, we may have no choice but to recommend them quite often in the coming weeks.

What looked like to be excellent matchups in the conference finals a week ago has fizzled with the Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins moving out to big leads in the Western and Eastern series respectively.  The Pens, behind goalie Marc-Andre Fleury and centers Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, look to move to a three-oh lead Tuesday night when they take on the Flyers in Philadelphia.

I said last week that we had a very strong Final Four in the Stanley Cup playoffs. It sure doesn’t look that way now. The Detroit Red Wings are up three games to zero in their Western Conference final with the Dallas Stars, and the Pittsburgh Penguins will try to duplicate that feat Tuesday night in their Game 3 against the Philadelphia Flyers.

The way the Dallas Stars have fallen under Detroit’s skates has been especially disappointing from a hockey standpoint. This series had all the earmarks of a Western showdown, perhaps a seven-game classic. It could still happen, but it would take a supreme effort from the Stars to climb back into the series now.

In the Eastern Conference final it’s certainly too early to write off the Flyers at this point, as they’ve lost the first game in each of their three playoff rounds. But the expected Battle of Pennsylvania is turning into the inevitable March of the Penguins.

At least Dallas made it this far. Losing to the Stars in the second round cost San Jose Sharks coach Ron Wilson his job; Joel Quenneville is also leaving the Colorado Avalanche bench after getting swept by Detroit. Where will the axe fall next?

Eastern Conference
Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers (-115)
Game 3: Tuesday, May 13, 7:30 pm (ET)
Penguins lead series 2-0
Philadelphia is the slimmest of favorites in this matchup, even after winning four out of five home games thus far in the playoffs. But that’s nothing new. The biggest chalk the Flyers carried in any of those five contests was -140, in Game 4 against Washington. They’ve made it this far by going nuts on the man advantage; Philly is third among the 16 playoff teams in power play percentage at 23.2, scoring 13 times in 14 games.

Those goals have covered up some of the more unpleasant parts of Philadelphia’s game. The goaltending of Martin Biron has been spectacular on occasion, but his .909 save percentage is the lowest of the four starters left in the playoffs. The Flyers are allowing 32.4 shots per game, and the penalty kill is awful at 76.9 percent.

Penguins supporters couldn’t be happier. Their power play has been even better than Philly’s at 23.6 percent, getting their 13 goals in just 11 games. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has more than reached his potential with a .937 save percentage and a pair of shutouts. And the Pittsburgh penalty killers are among the best in the league at 88.6 percent. This is a mismatch on paper, and it was a mismatch at the Igloo.

Western Conference
Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars
Game 4: Wednesday, May 14, 8:00 pm (ET)
Red Wings lead series 3-0
The question for this matchup is whether or not the Stars will be motivated to put in a genuine effort after losing the first three games of this series. Here are some of the quotes from the Dallas side to reporters after Monday’s 5-2 win by Detroit:

“You pretty much need to play a mistake-free game.” – Mike Modano

“I don’t feel I’ve given our guys enough of a chance to win, but it’s a seven-game series, so we'll see what happens.” –  Marty Turco

“We’re going to have all the clichés and we’re going to believe that we’re not done. We’ll regroup and try to win a game.” – Brad Richards

“Those are demoralizing things.” – Dave Tippett

Coach Tippett was referring to his team’s inability to keep the “momentum” in this series, but he may as well have been talking about those quotes. Richards comes closest to being positive, yet he’s still admitting that it’s all a brave front.

Getting a win at home is still a priority for the Stars, but the Wings are undefeated with Chris Osgood starting in goal. He’s the best in the playoffs right now with a .939 save percentage, letting in a paltry 12 goals in eight-plus games. Jere Lehtinen (leg) and Stu Barnes (concussion) are both day-to-day; they have six goals and five assists between them in the postseason. Dallas needs those points desperately, even just to extend their season beyond Game 4.

The chase for the Stanley Cup in the NHL is down to four teams as the Conference Finals get underway this week.  The Dallas Stars are coming off an upset over the San Jose Sharks in a series that went six games with four of them going to OT.  Now they must face Chris Osgood and the Detroit Red Wings.  Philadelphia tripped the Montreal Canadiens and the Flyers now meet the Pittsburgh Penguins.

It’s been a chalky year across the sports world, but not every favorite has made it all the way to the finish line. The Montreal Canadiens skated into a hole during their series with the Philadelphia Flyers, dropping four games (and 4.15 units) in a row as the top seed in the Eastern Conference.

The first line of defense for Montreal, goaltender Carey Price, had a frustratingly bad week. A collection of soft goals and tip-ins left the otherwise promising Price with a .901 save percentage during the playoffs. That’s better than Dominik Hasek of the Detroit Red Wings at .888, but the West’s No. 1 team had Chris Osgood (.937 SV%) ready to provide backup. Montreal had Jaroslav Halak; he gave up three goals on 25 shots to lose Game 4.

The swift demise of the Habs was the top story in a conference semifinal round that had very little to offer in the way of competitive hockey. Only the San Jose Sharks managed to force a sixth game, putting up a decent fight against the Dallas Stars before bowing out on Sunday. That leaves four teams in the hunt for the Stanley Cup, and this is a very strong foursome.

Western Conference
No. 5 Dallas Stars vs. No. 1 Detroit Red Wings
Game 1: Thursday, May 8, 7:30 pm (ET)
Osgood leads all playoff goaltenders with a 1.52 goals against average. However, Osgood twice allowed the Colorado Avalanche to score three goals; Detroit won each of those games 4-3. The Red Wings won the other two games by a combined score of 13-3. It was a series sweep, but closer than it may appear to casual bettors.

There also isn’t much of a difference right now between Osgood and Dallas netminder Marty Turco (.929 SV%). This is Turco’s best playoff performance in his seven years in the NHL; he allowed San Jose to score just 11 goals in six games, easily the difference-maker in a series where five of the six games were decided by a single goal.

Turco isn’t getting much respect from the betting public. Detroit is a -210 chalk at Joe Louis Arena, with a total of five goals. The under is 5-4-3 for the Stars during these playoffs, but Detroit’s nose for the net has the over at 6-2-1. Dallas could use some more help on the blueline in support of Turco; Philippe Boucher hasn’t played since Game 3 of the Anaheim series, and his status for the Western final remained unclear at press time.

Eastern Conference
No. 6 Philadelphia Flyers at No. 2 Pittsburgh Penguins
Game 1: Friday, May 9, 7:30 pm (ET)
The Penguins looked unbeatable after winning their first seven playoff games in a row. Then the New York Rangers managed a 3-0 victory to stave off elimination in the Eastern semis, and took Pittsburgh to overtime before losing Game 5. Not a problem in and of itself, but Sidney Crosby is obviously not at full capacity after his high ankle sprain. Crosby has just two goals in the playoffs on only 27 shots; he’s taken more of a playmaker role thus far with 12 assists.

This is a ray of hope for the Flyers. Martin Biron has a decent .914 save percentage in the playoffs, but he was brilliant in Philadelphia’s first three wins over Montreal. Hot goaltending is the key to winning in the playoffs. In three of his last four games, Biron has been every bit as good as Pittsburgh’s Marc-Andre Fleury, who leads all playoff goaltenders with a .938 save percentage.

Philadelphia also welcomed Mike Knuble (29 goals in the regular season) back to the lineup in Game 4 of the Montreal series after he tore his hamstring against the Washington Capitals. Knuble was plus-2 and scored the empty-netter in Game 5 against the Habs to punch Philly’s ticket to the Eastern final. The betting odds have the Flyers at +155 in Friday’s opener; the total is 5½.

Three of the NHL Playoff series moved within a game of being sweeps on Tuesday night, including the Pittsburgh Penguins hanging a 5-3 loss on the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden.  That makes Marc-Andre Fleury 7-0 so far this postseason, and nearly nine units in the black.  Sergie Zubov and the Dallas Stars can close out their series against the favored San Jose Sharks on Wednesday.

The hammer is about to fall on three very good hockey teams. Three of the four NHL conference semifinals have turned into 3-0 blowouts; the victims in question are the New York Rangers, the San Jose Sharks and the Colorado Avalanche.

This is a surprise only in the case of San Jose. Before the second round, the Sharks were among the top Stanley Cup favorites at 4-1. Those odds slipped to 12-1 after San Jose lost two straight to the Dallas Stars (7-2). And then Dallas did it again in Game 3 Tuesday night, winning 2-1 in overtime on defenseman Mattias Norstrom’s second goal of the playoffs – matching his total in the regular season.

The other two series are going according to plan for the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Detroit Red Wings. These were the top two Cup favorites going into the second round, and they’ve solidified their positions at press time with 9-5 odds for the Wings and 5-2 for the Pens.

Either team would make a worthy champion, but the Penguins have the edge at this point. They’re 7-0 in the playoffs, good for 8.71 units on the moneyline to lead the league’s Sweet 16. The deadline deal that netted both Marian Hossa (eight points in seven games) and defenseman Pascal Dupuis (four points and a plus-three) was a coup for the Pens, adding another premium scorer to a team with 2007 Hart Trophy winner Sidney Crosby (12 points) and 2008 nominee Evgeni Malkin (13 points). The Senators and Rangers are no slouches – they just looked that way against Pittsburgh.

Detroit is still in the driver’s seat of the zamboni out west. But it hasn’t been easy for the Wings; two of their victories over the hobbling Avs were 4-3 finals, and Dominik Hasek has already suffered his playoff meltdown. Chris Osgood will have to hold the fort from here on in, and he wasn’t particularly sharp in Games 1 or 3 against Colorado. Marc-Andre Fleury, meanwhile, has a .940 save percentage to lead all regular starting goalies in these playoffs.

Eastern Conference
No. 1 Montreal Canadiens vs. No. 6 Philadelphia Flyers
Game 4: Wednesday, Apr 30, 7:00 pm (ET) Flyers lead 2-1
This is the only series with any drama left in it, but it’s making up for the other three. The media cried “goalie controversy” in Montreal after Carey Price was yanked in the first period of Monday’s loss at Philadelphia. The Habs had beaten the Flyers seven times in a row (including Game 1 of this series) before things started to fall apart around Price.

Backup goalie Jan Halak could conceivably get the start in Wednesday’s Game 4. But Price is the man in Montreal, and he already showed his resilience when he blanked the Boston Bruins 5-0 in Game 7 of their first-round series. Montreal remains a slightly bigger Cup favorite at 15-2 compared to 8-1 for the Flyers.

The Habs can’t afford any lapse in goaltending. Philly will have veteran Mike Knuble (29 goals in the regular season) back in the lineup, making the Flyers a stronger pick at –130 than they were in Game 3 at –123. The total for this matchup is 5.5 goals.

Western Conference
No. 5 Dallas Stars vs. No. 2 San Jose Sharks
Game 4: Wednesday, Apr 30, 9:00 pm (ET) Stars lead 3-0
Marty Turco has been criticized in the past for his questionable performances in the playoffs. This year, however, the Stars’ goaltender is getting nothing but praise for his efforts. Jim Reeves of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram portrayed Turco in a recent article as an older, wiser man at age 32 who has put the Stars on his back, allowing just 16 goals in eight games.

The scary thing is, the Stars are getting better. Defenseman Sergei Zubov (sports hernia) returned to action in Game 2 and assisted on Mike Modano’s power-play winner. Then Zubov scored himself on the man advantage to tie Game 3 at one apiece and set the stage for Norstrom’s heroics.

This is the second of back-to-back games in Big D; odds had yet to be posted at press time.