Boston's odds of repeating as NBA Champions are growing longer each day, with Kevin Garnett's knee injury a huge reason why the Celtics are losing ground in the Eastern Conference.  Meanwhile out West, Manu Ginobli's bum ankle has the San Antonio Spurs looking shaky heading towards the postseason and the preseason hype surrounding Chris Paul and the New Orleans Hornets appears to be just that, hype.

At this time during the NBA season I always like to go back and take a look at my notes from throughout the campaign. It gives me a really good sense of the season’s developments you can’t gather from boxscores, betting trends, and power ratings.

What was a seemingly sharp futures play back in October and November can look questionable now. That’s certainly the case with the following four examples of wagers made by a multitude of well-intentioned bettors. With all apologies to those of you who put money in some way, shape, or form on the Orlando Magic, Utah Jazz, or Houston Rockets, these are the NBA futures bets in serious trouble.

(Current odds in parentheses)

Boston Celtics to repeat as NBA champions (+400)
Kevin Garnett’s knee injury puts into jeopardy the Celtics’ chance of winning the championship, if that wasn’t already the case before KG first went down back in February.

The chickens have come home to roost after Danny Ainge didn’t replace the retired P.J. Brown or the departed James Posey, and now Boston’s lack of depth is coming back to haunt them. The Celts are 31-17 SU since they roared out to their 27-2 start, when Boston looked like the team that manhandled the Los Angeles Lakers in last season’s Finals.

Beantown’s petal-to-the-metal attitude has it burnt out; and it’s unclear if they’ll be able to get back to the Finals without homecourt advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs. Bettors should take note the Celtics didn’t win a game on the road in last year’s postseason until the East Finals against the Detroit Pistons.

Anybody but LeBron James to win MVP
The fact King James is currently in the range of -600 tells you everything you need to know about the state of futures wagers on this season’s NBA Most Valuable Player award.

James is simply too dominant, with averages of 28.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 7.3 assists heading into this week’s action, not to mention the kicker that any sharp bettor uses to focus their wager on this bet: The Cleveland Cavaliers currently have the best record in the league.

LeBron is clearly the most talented player in the Association, and when you combine that with Kobe Bryant’s (+350) relative coasting down the stretch and Dwyane Wade’s (+200) status as a member of the Miami Heat, the case for James becomes crystal clear.

San Antonio Spurs to win Western Conference (+500)
The thinking in some circles after last season was if Manu Ginobili was healthy, the Spurs would have defeated the Lakers in the West Finals. That might be true – but that was last year.

Ginobili is banged-up with his bad ankle again, and Tim Duncan isn’t getting any younger. This says nothing about Los Angeles being the class of the Western Conference, although San Antonio did manage to squeak out a one-point win on a four-point play from Roger Mason when the teams met in Texas back in December.

Drew Gooden is a nice pickup, but the Spurs’ supporting cast is lacking to the extreme. I love Matt Bonner, but he shouldn’t be getting minutes on a championship contender, while Bruce Bowen is a shell of his former self.

New Orleans Hornets to win anything (+1800 to win West; +3500 to win title)
Remember all the preseason hype (and money) on the Hornets? New Orleans was the trendy pick among wise guys after last season’s boon in the Big Easy and the summer acquisition of Posey. Now a ton of bettors are on the hook after the Hornets’ predicted ascendancy never materialized.

Was New Orleans overvalued all along? The Hornets only made it to the conference semis last season, and that was in a year when Ginobili played hurt and Andrew Bynum missed the playoffs. It hasn’t helped that Tyson Chandler got injured/was almost traded/took the year off, and Peja Stojakovic has clearly taken a step back due (at least partially) to a nagging back injury.

As great as Chris Paul is, he’s still a point guard who needs those around him to put the ball in the hole and do the bulk of the rebounding. David West is a solid scorer, but he’s below average on the glass, which was Chandler’s forte before this season’s regression.

If it's Thursday, then it must be time for TNT's twosome of tantalizing tilts in the NBA. First up on the evening is an important battle of Southwest Division foes with the Dallas Mavericks traveling to New Orleans to face the Hornets.  Jason Terry is back for the Mavs after missing eight games with a hand injury, and it might be just in time for Dallas who currently sits eighth in the Western Conference standings.

Allen Iverson has had better days. He’s out for two weeks to rest his bad back – doctor’s orders. And his Detroit Pistons are 3-0 SU and ATS since Iverson was taken out of the lineup, beating both Orlando (-9½) and Boston (-8½) on the road. The old Pistons are back, as long as Richard Hamilton is logging heavy minutes at shooting guard.

Detroit’s most recent victim will try to shake it off and get back on track during the back end of Thursday’s NBA on TNT doubleheader. First, it’s the Big Easy, where there’s another team enjoying success with its “old” lineup.

Dallas at New Orleans
Thursday, Mar 5, 8:05 p.m. (ET) TNT
The Hornets (37-22 SU, 24-33-2 ATS) have won five straight games since the Tyson Chandler trade – thanks to Oklahoma City rescinding the trade for medical reasons and sending Chandler back to New Orleans. Local fans are ecstatic, but even with Chandler back on board, this is still not as good a team as last year’s. Exhibit A: The Hornets are just 1-4 ATS over these five games. Peja Stojakovic and his bad back are shooting just 40.5 percent from the field, down from 44 percent last year. With Peja on his last legs, New Orleans is lacking in scoring options beyond Chris Paul (22.5 points per 40 minutes) and David West (21.4).

Dallas (37-24 SU, 29-32 ATS) is packing its bags for 10 road games out of the next 15, starting with Thursday’s visit to the New Orleans Arena. And the Mavs left town on a winning note after Wednesday’s 107-102 victory over rival San Antonio (+3½). Jason Terry was excellent as usual in his sixth-man role with 17 points, six assists and three steals in 35 minutes. The Mavs held in there at 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS while Terry sat out the second half of February with a broken hand; they’re 2-1 SU and ATS since his return.

This is a rematch of last year’s first-round playoff series, which New Orleans took in five games at 3-2 ATS. The Hornets won their only meeting this year, 104-97 as 4.5-point road faves – Josh Howard (22.1 points, 6.0 boards/40) was out for Dallas that day.

Portland at Denver
Thursday, Mar 5, 10:35 p.m. (ET) TNT
Denver (39-22 SU, 32-28-1 ATS) is in the fight of its life in the Northwest Division, thanks in part to five losses in seven games at a paltry 1-6 ATS – including Tuesday’s 100-95 loss to the aforementioned Pistons (-3) at the Palace. Carmelo Anthony (25.1 points/40 min) was suspended by the team for that contest, and starting center Nene (18.1 points, 9.7 rebounds/40) missed a pair of earlier games with a bruised knee. There’s only so much manpower this frontcourt can afford to lose after letting Marcus Camby go to the Clippers for virtually nothing.

The Trail Blazers (38-22 SU, 30-29 ATS) are within half a game of Denver in the standings, beating the Pacers 107-105 on Wednesday night to make it 13 wins out of their last 18 games. Although Portland dropped the cash as a 10-point chalk, this has still been a profitable run at 11-7 ATS, as well as 5-3 ATS since the return of point guard Steve Blake from a separated right shoulder. Critics of Greg Oden’s rookie season will note that Blake’s eight games coincide with Oden being forced to the sidelines with recurring knee issues. The former No. 1 pick is having a very good first year in the NBA with 15.7 points and 12.6 rebounds per 40 minutes, but Joel Przybilla does have the better plus-minus numbers according to Roland Rating: dead even at 0.0 compared to minus-1.6 for Oden.

The early betting odds had the Nuggets as 5-point favorites for this game (with a total of 198.5) before Wednesday’s Pacers-Blazers tilt was close to being over. Denver is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five meetings at the Pepsi Center. They’ve split their first two games this year, with the home team winning and covering both.

This total is set about seven points higher than the previous two meetings between the Hornets and Kings, giving the Under some extra value at Sacramento's Arco Arena.

Arco Arena will be the site of tonight’s Western Conference clash between the host Sacramento Kings and the visiting Hornets from the Big Easy.

These two teams have met twice this season, but this will be their first at Arco as the other meetings took place in New Orleans. The first meeting was back on November 19 with Sacramento winning 105-96 as a 13½-point road underdog and going over the total of 197. The second game took place on December 20 with the host getting the win 99-90 as a 15½-point home favorite but falling below the posted total of 196½.

Oddsmakers have posted a total on tonight’s contest of 203 which is considerably higher than their two previous meetings this season and we believe this game will fall below that number.

New Orleans is 7-0 Under in road games versus teams averaging <=20 assists per game this season and 29-13 Under versus teams that are being outrebounded by opponents by 5 or more per game since 1996. The Hornets are 4-0 Under their last four as a road favorite of 5 to 10½ points and 8-2 Under their last 10 as a favorite of 5 to 10½. New Orleans is 19-8-1 Under after going Under in their last game, 16-5-1 Under as a favorite after going Under, and 11-3-1 Under as a conference favorite after going Under in their previous game.

Sacramento is 12-3 Under in home games versus teams that make six or more 3-point shots per game during the second half of the season the last two seasons, and 7-2 Under their last nine versus opponents from the Southwest Division.

Play Under on NBA home underdogs of 6 to 7½ points, 23-11 Under. Play Under on teams coming off a SU loss and now involved in a game with a line range of 6 to 7½ points, 82-53 Under.

With both teams struggling and solid technical support for the Under we will recommend a play on the Under in tonight’s contest.

Free Pick: Hornets-Kings Under 203 (-110)

This Sun Belt tilt at Lakefront Arena in the Big Easy should go the way of the home dogs.  The New Orleans Privateers pilfer the cover tonight at home vs. Arkansas State.

Arkansas St. (13-12) is visiting New Orleans (10-16) tonight in a Sun Belt matchup. The Red Wolves are losers of five straight games and six games against the spread while the Privateers are on a three game losing skid themselves going 1-2 ATS in the stretch. Two of those games were on the road though.

The Red Wolves are just a 1-8 on the road in their last nine road games. They are 3-5-1 ATS in that stretch but in their lone game as a road favorite they lost 80-76 at Florida International laying 2½ points.  Arkansas St. is just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite.

New Orleans is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as home underdog. They are actually 5-3 straight up at home in conference play.

Early money is pouring in on Arkansas St. so we are going to fade this poor playing road team where 70%+ bets are backing them. The Privateers are definitely a live dog tonight.  New Orleans has a couple of pretty good players in Kyndall Dykes and T.J. Worley who combine for 32 PPG. They should do enough and get us the cover tonight.

Free Pick: New Orleans +2½ (-110)

Tonight's Orlando-New Orleans game in the Big Easy will have plenty of star power with Dwight Howard and Chris Paul on the floor together.  The Magic get Bread's nod over the Hornets.

The Magic’s top two players certainly did me right during this past Saturday’s All-Star festivities, but not the way you might think.  It was the futility of superstar Dwight Howard and sharp shooter Rashard Lewis that helped me hit two nice paying winners in the 3-point and slam dunk contests.

First it was Daequan Cook miraculously forcing a tiebreaking round against Lewis, where the Orlando forward fell apart.  At +700, Cook was a very nice paying underdog.  Then the miniscule Nate Robinson was springing over Howard’s head en route to downing him in the slam dunk finals.  Grabbing Robinson at +650 made everything alright in Bread Land. 

Thanks Dwight!

Admittedly, those were silly exhibition bets that I really had no right cashing.  We’re back to real life again, which means you don’t want to find yourself wagering against Orlando too often.  They currently sit in third place in the East and are 33-18-1 ATS.  We’ll see just how much they will miss injured guard Jameer Nelson as the season wears down.  Even without him, they still have a deadly inside-out threat on the offensive side of the ball.  Until I see the wheels starting to fall off, there will be several nights that I’ll continue backing this team, starting with Wednesday’s game at New Orleans where the Hornets are favored by one.

If you are a stat freak or into fantasy basketball, then this is the game for you as the leaders in five different statistical categories will be represented in this game.  For the Hornets, there is phenomenal point guard Chris Paul who leads the league in assists (10.7) and steals (2.74).  There is no doubting Paul’s star power as he is an elite player.

The other bright spot comes in the form of All-Star center David West, who is averaging 19.9 ppg.  I just can’t get excited about this team, and their records support my indifference.  Their 31-20 record puts them in 6th place in the West, and dangerously close to missing out on the postseason.  You’ll be even sadder if you have been putting money on them, as they are just 21-28-2 ATS.

Mickey’s team, however, has been Magic-al.  Dwight Howard is the beast, averaging 21 ppg, most of which come on rim-bending dunks.  He leads the NBA in rebounds (14.2), blocks (3.02) and double doubles (42).  Every Beast needs a Beauty, and that would be the Magic’s outside shooters.  Hedo Turkoglu is dropping 17 a game, and Lewis, 18.5.  Lewis leads the league with 150 made 3-pointers.  I don’t know how he fell apart on Saturday, but I’m glad he did.

When I was in New Orleans a few weeks ago, I found myself at the casino.  I noticed a photographer walking around with Hugo, the Hornet’s mascot.  I love mascots and stumbled over for my photo-op.  After two failed attempts, the bewildered photographer finally figured out how to snap our picture.  I asked where I could purchase my new souvenir.  I was first told that I could get it at the casino’s front desk, then that I could have it mailed to me, then that it was not available at all.  Well why did I just get up then?

That’s the thing – this team just doesn’t have it together, and that ineptitude trickles all the way down to their PR department.  I was forced to create my own photo with Hugo, and that made me sad.  I’ll be backing the Magic tonight.

Free Pick: Magic +1 (-110)

Get your days-old Bread HERE.

The Hornets are the better team, no doubt, but they have dropped their last three to the Pacers in New Orleans.  Take Indiana and the points today on the road in NOLA.

The New Orleans Hornets return home off a road trip to host the Indiana Pacers on Monday afternoon in the Big Easy. New Orleans will look to win back-to-back games for the first time in two weeks while Indiana is looking to win three straight for the first time since November.

In their most recent meeting back on December 28 at Conseco Fieldhouse, the Pacers lost 105-103 as the Hornets' David West hit the game winner with 2.5 seconds remaining. The Hornets have won the last two meetings both were in Indiana but they have struggled at home versus the Pacers losing the last three meetings in the Big Easy.

Indiana is 56-35 ATS revenging a close loss versus an opponent of 3 points or less since 1996 and 15-7 ATS revenging a loss versus an opponent this season. The Pacers, after going Over in their last game and then facing a non-conference opponent on the road, are 42-24 ATS. New Orleans, off a road game and then hosting a non-conference opponent, is 53-77-4 ATS; if that opponent happens to be Indiana they are 2-9-1 ATS. If the Hornets won their last game on the road before facing Indiana at home, they are 0-5-1 ATS.

We also note that NBA teams that have gone Under in their last two games on the road and then face a non-conference opponent with a line range of 8 to 9½ points have a record of 56-82-5 ATS. With technical and situational support for the visitor we will back the Pacers here as they keep this one close in the Big Easy.

Projected Final Score: Indiana-101 New Orleans-102

Free Pick: Pacers +8 (-110)

The first UFC® card of '09 comes from Ireland on Saturday and features a pair of light heavyweight showdowns. Bread will be in New Orleans eating, drinking and chasing imaginary leprechauns around the Quarter.

The latest installment of the UFC in the UK will be taking place on Saturday, as UFC 93 comes at us from Dublin, Ireland.  I will be partying it up in New Orleans this weekend, so I’ll be scouring the French Quarter for a sports bar that will be carrying the pay-per-view.  By 'scouring,' of course, I mean 'stumbling.'  God I love that town.

Behold...The Hand Grenade!

My belly shall be filled with a mixture of Creole and Cajun dishes at all times.  The spices shall be doused with many Hurricanes, Hand Grenades and ice cold beers.  The weather will be chilly, which makes me even more giddy.  I just need to stay away from that naughty casino on Canal Street.

The last time I was there, I was risking an amount equal to an entire day’s blackjack losses on a single roulette spin.  Black was the play, and it worked out in my favor.  I quickly cashed out my new collection of purple chips and reflected on my good fortune at a rundown blues bar.  I suspect that casino hasn’t forgotten me and will be prepared to exact some revenge upon my return.

Thank goodness there is football on Sunday, and better yet, UFC on Saturday.  The difference in time zones will have the start time at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, giving me a 2:00 p.m. Central start in the Big Easy.  If I could have Bruce Buffer in my life everyday at 2:00 p.m., I would.

Dan Henderson -135
Rich Franklin +115
Franklin (26-3-0) is nicknamed “Ace”, which means that he would get along just fine at SBR.  He could bring his friend “Pal” with him too.  The demise of Rich Franklin was quite presumptuous.  He can’t beat Anderson Silva (who can?), but he can do some damage on everyone else.

Franklin has never lost when he fights at 205 lbs.  He is 0-2 versus Silva when he drops down, and 11-0 versus anyone else in the UFC.  He comes off two impressive wins in a row over Travis Lutter and Matt Hamill, who still hasn’t heard that he lost.  (And there is my quota for “jokes in bad taste” for the day.  I apologize.)

Dan Henderson (23-7-0) is a beast of an opponent.  After losing to two of the UFC’s best in Silva and Quinton Jackson, he ended his slide with a dominating victory over Rousimar Palhares, who is also on this card.  I have to go with “Hendo” as a small favorite here.  His wrestling skills and heavy hands should be enough to hand “Ace” his first 205 loss in the UFC.

Mauricio Rua -360
Mark Coleman +300
Joe Rogan calls Mark Coleman (15-8-0) the Grandfather of ground and pound.  Do you really want your hard-earned money on anyone being referred to as the grandfather of anything?  Sure, the guy might a UFC Hall of Famer, but he’s 44 years old now.  His last fight in the UFC was in 1999.  His last fight ever was in October 2006.  I wasn’t even married then, and I feel like I’ve been married foreeeeevvveeerrrrrr (just kidding baby!)

Coleman is a dead ringer for Vin Diesel.  Just like Diesel, the act of talking appears to be taxing for Mr. Coleman.  What makes this even more ironic is the fact that he has a degree in education from Ohio State.  Note to self:  Keep future children out of Big 10 schools.

“Shogun” Rua (16-3-0) is a sizable favorite, but he should be a safe bet.  Not just because he is 17 years younger than his opponent.  And not because he was considered the best fighter in his weight class just before his loss to Forrest Griffin last year.  And not because he will be seeking some revenge on Coleman from his loss to him back in ’06.

Rua should be feared because he fights for his hero and inspiration, his older brother, Murilo Ninja.  This could be the most fantastic fighter sibling since Dennis Alexio played Van Damme’s brother in Kickboxer.  I fear Murilo Ninja.  I bet on Shogun.  I highly anticipate Coleman’s inaudible post-fight losing interview.

 

Can he move like me? No!

Drinking with mascots is scary.

Marcus Davis -140
Chris Lytle +120
This is a destiny winner for me.  Davis (20-5-0) calls himself 'The Irish Hand Grenade.'  If you’ve never had a Hand Grenade at a Tropical Isle in New Orleans, consider yourself lucky.  I’ve seen people literally change colors after downing just two of these deadly concoctions.  Sure, Davis’ nickname is somewhat politically incorrect, but I can’t wait to cash on “The Irish Hand Grenade” whilst turning shades of turquoise with Hand Grenade in hand.

In all seriousness though, Davis has become the face of the UFC’s UK events.  He has participated in the last five, posting a record of 4-1, losing only to Mike Swick at UFC 85 in London.  He is proud of his Irish heritage and puts on a great show for the local hooligans.

Since Rua last fought in September ’07, Lytle (36-16-4) has been in the Octagon four times.  The guy is an overworked journeyman.  Lytle has lost to a who’s who type list:  Josh Koscheck, Thiago Alves, Matt Hughes, Matt Serra, Joe Riggs, Karo Parisyan and Robbie Lawler.  He has beaten several guys who I have never heard of.  Unfortunately, I have heard of Marcus Davis.  Hand Grenades for everyone.

Rousimar Palhares -350

Jeremy Horn.  Yikes!

Jeremy Horn +250
Palhares (17-2-0) should have little trouble finding redemption against Jeremy Horn (88-18-5).  Palhares was beat up in his last bout against Dan Henderson.  Horn has lost two in a row to Dean Lister and Nate Marquardt.

The spread is high but the risk is little.  Besides, if I lose a wager to a guy who looks like Jeremy Horn, I’m heading straight down to Canal Street and putting $500 on Black.  Things couldn’t possibly get any worse at that point, right?

While Bread is killing off brain cells in the Big Easy this weekend, check out his archives HERE.

It's a key battle in the NBA's Southwest Division tonight in the Big Easy with the rested San Antonio Spurs as road pups the right play against the New Orleans Hornets.

Our Wednesday night NBA selection is on the San Antonio Spurs plus the points in the Big Easy over the New Orleans Hornets.

Last night New Orleans had a tough divisional matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies, and escaped with a 7-point win.  Now the Hornets have to return home to take on the rested Spurs.  This will be a big revenge game for New Orleans after last season's playoff ouster by San Antonio, but I don't think the Hornets will get their revenge.

As I frequently write, the Spurs are the league's oldest club and play a lot better with rest than without.  Let's take a look at the statistics:  Since February 2003, San Antonio is 45-55 ATS when playing with no rest; and 81-45 ATS when playing with two or more days' of rest.

With the Spurs off since Sunday's five-point win over Oklahoma City, we'll take Gregg Popovich's men in the Crescent City on Wednesday night.

Free Pick: Spurs +2½ (-110)

The winner on the field in tonight's Saints, Bears matchup is yet to be determined, but with two of the NFL's most public teams facing off there is little doubt that in the end it will be the books that come out winners.  Chicago will be laying a field goal at home in what should be a not-so-Windy City on Thursday though there's a good chance of the frozen stuff falling and temps in the 20s around kickoff.

Sportsbooks are living the dream heading into Thursday night’s matchup between the New Orleans Saints (7-6, 9-4 ATS) and Chicago Bears (7-6, 6-6-1 ATS) at Soldier Field.

Not only is the Thursday nighter one of the most bet-on games of the week, the Saints and Bears represent two of the NFL’s most public teams. This means lots of action on the betting odds at the window for the guys setting the lines, and this week is no exception.

What makes this a dream scenario for books is about 51% of wagers on the spread have come in on the Bears prior to kickoff. With nearly equal action on both sides, the real winner on Thursday night will be the bookies, barring a major amount of money in either direction.

Chicago remains a consensus 3-point favorite after the line opened at that number early in the week. Handicappers can find the Bears at -2½ at a few locations, although there’s a solid chance Chicago could be giving a field goal across the board by the time the sun goes down on the Windy City.

The most common number on the total is 44½, after the O/U was set at 46 when the numbers were posted. Public bettors are moving the total down because of the chilly forecast for Thursday night that calls for below-freezing temperatures and a vicious wind chill. The good news for cappers hoping to play this one straight up by the numbers is there’s not expected to be high winds or much in terms of precipitation during the game.

Saints backers are banking on the third time being a charm, as this is New Orleans’ third trip to Soldier Field in December or January in as many seasons. The Bears defeated the Saints in the NFC Championship Game there in 2006, and eliminated New Orleans from playoff contention with a 33-25 triumph last December 30 as 1-point home pups.

Chicago slipped out the back door to cash the last time the teams met, as New Orleans couldn’t cover despite racking up 413 yards offense. Running back Pierre Thomas ran roughshod over the Bears’ defense a year ago, finishing with 105 yards on 20 carries in addition to 121 yards receiving on 12 catches with a score for the Saints.

Expect the Saints to rely as much as possible on Thomas once again this time around, insofar as the Big Easy needs an alternative to Drew Brees gunning the ball downfield on every possession. The undrafted Thomas racked up 102 yards on the ground on 16 attempts with both a rushing and receiving TD in New Orleans’ 29-25 win over the Atlanta Hawks last Sunday.

Brees finished 18-of-32 for 230 yards with two touchdowns for the Saints, winners as 3-point faves, and 5-1 ATS over their last six games. Reggie Bush chimed in with 80 yards rushing on only 10 carries, while New Orleans managed a season-high 184 yards on the ground in the payday.

The Bears are coming off a 23-10 pasting of the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, a game in which the typically porous Chicago pass defense showed up. The Jaguars had only 159 yards passing against the Bears, who rolled to the bank as 6½-point home chalk at numerous books. Kyle Orton went 20-of-34 for 219 yards with two TD tosses and an interception in his most promising performance since spraining his ankle last month, while RB Matt Forte had a pedestrian 69 yards on the ground on 21 touches in the backfield.

Losing outright would decimate either team’s postseason hopes, although that’s especially true for the Saints, who will most certainly need a wild card berth to book their ticket to the playoffs. 11 different NFC teams are at .500 or better, with New Orleans and Chicago near the bottom of the pack. This adds a little spice to a game that has bettors emptying their wallets as it is.

A pair of 5-5 teams wouldn't normally draw a lot of excitement for Monday Night Football, but this evening's contest between the Packers and Saints in the Big Easy should be a good one with a lot on the line.  Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay are right in the thick of the NFC North race and a win would throw the Pack in a three-way tie for the lead with the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings.

It’s usually a little tough to get excited about a game featuring a pair of 5-5 team. However the Monday night match-up offers some intriguing angles as Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.

The line opened with New Orleans favored by -2½ with a total of 53½. Most books still have the Saints favored but ever so slightly. And while the weather outside is frightening, the weather inside the dome is always delightful – see, I’m already in the holiday spirit!

Last Sunday, the Packers moved into a three-way tie for the NFC North lead with a rout of Chicago, while the Saints who are last in the NFC South - posted their first road win of the season in Kansas City.

Tonight’s game will pit strength against strength. Saints QB Drew Brees is off to the best statistical 10-game start in league history. He’s already torched opposing defenses to the tune of 3,251 yards which puts him on pace for a “sick” 5,200 yard season.
The Packers defense no doubt will have a “bend, don’t break” mentality against Brees. They definitely will give up some yards but since their forte is forcing turnovers and given that Brees is tied for the second-most interceptions in the league, I’m guessing you’ll see at least a couple of picks.

Green Bay’s D as in dominant, held Chicago to 234 total yards last week and a season low in points while scoring a franchise-record seventh defensive touchdown. The Packers have scored 93 points off opponent turnovers this season — most in the league.

On the other side of the ball, Green Bay’s offense, has performed quite nicely with Aaron Rodges behind center. The Packers tallied over 400 yards of offense as Rodgers completed 23 of 30 passes and a pair of in the win over Chicago. If for some reason, Green Bay has trouble with its passing attack (and I don’t forsee that happening) then they can give the ball to Ryan Grant who ran for a season high 145 yards last week. In his brief career Grant has seven 100 yard rushing performances and two this season.

The Saints running game is the big X factor tonight. Deuce McAllister has rushed for just 299 yards this season and faces a four-game suspension for a banned substance.  Reggie Bush has missed the last three games with a knee injury but should return tonight. Just in case Bush can’t answer the bell, the Saints signed free-agent running backs Darian Barnes and Mike Bell to shore up their depleted backfield.
When it comes to playing on Monday night, only the Atlanta Flacons have a worse history than the Saints. New Orleans is 8-17 on the big stage while the Falcons are 9-21.

You might remember the Saints last Monday night apperance (or if you're a big fan, you might chose to forget). Earlier this year, New Orleans wasted two Bush punt return touchdowns, blowing a late lead in a loss to the Minnesota Vikings.

For the Saints, it’s simple. They pretty much need to win five of their last six to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. That doesn’t leave them much margin for error. The Packers play in a division that’s wide open. Neither the Bears, Vikings or Packers have established themselves as the team to beat. The pressure is on both teams but more so perhaps for New Orleans.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see an aerial shootout with both quarterbacks throwing for 300 yards tonight. But the Packers have the defensive advantage as well as the better running game. The Saints real true edge is Brees but without a running game to keep Green Bay’s D honest, the former Purdue Boilermaker could be in for a long night.

Led by Drew Brees, New Orleans boasts the NFL's top offense going up against a porous Kansas City defense.  Play the Over when the Saints meet the Chiefs Sunday.

The boys from the Big Easy take their air show on the road to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon. Before the season began many had this Saints team contending for the NFC South title but their inability to win on the road and inconsistent play has them looking up from the bottom of the division.

The Saints lost at Atlanta 34-20 last Sunday to fall to 0-4 on the road this season. They defeated San Diego 37-32 in London on Oct. 26, although they were considered the home team.

Drew Brees leads the NFL's top-ranked offense, which is gaining 422.2 yards per game. He's on pace to throw for a record-setting 5,309 yards. Brees has thrown for 1,290 yards, four touchdowns and six interceptions in four road games compared to 1,695 yards, 13 TDs and four picks in five home contests. Brees and the Saints will face off against a Chiefs defense that has been decimated by injuries, as linebackers Derrick Johnson and Pat Thomas and defensive end Brian Johnston are listed as out for this game.

The Chiefs are allowing 420 yards per game on the defensive side of the ball. Their rush defense is giving up 202 yards per game on 6 yards per carry while their pass defense is allowing 218 yards passing per game and 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Not good news when facing a Saints offense that leads the league with over 420 yards of offense per game.

Kansas City is coming off another tough loss, 20-19 at San Diego last Sunday that came a week after a 30-27 overtime loss to Tampa Bay.

While the Chiefs have lost five straight since a 33-19 victory over Denver on Sept. 28 and have one victory in their last 18 games, the offense has been solid thanks to Tyler Thigpen's surprising play. Thigpen threw for 128 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions in his first start, but has passed for 710 yards, six TDs and no picks in his last three.

Chiefs RB Larry Johnson returned Monday after being suspended for violating the league's personal conduct policy. His return should help improve the Chiefs offensive play, in their lone win he rushed for 198 yards and two touchdowns.

The Saints are 29-7-1 Over on the road after playing when the line was within 3 of pick'em. New Orleans is 15-2 Over as a road favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Saints are 15-3 Over as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged at least six punts per game season-to-date. The Saints are 10-0 Over when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 on the road and the line was within 3 of pick'em. New Orleans is 13-3 Over as a road favorite and 13-4 Over on the road when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak.

The Chiefs are 16-4 Over as a dog the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards. KC is 12-2 Over as a dog when facing a team that has completed at least 65% of their passes season-to-date. The Chiefs are 13-2 Over as a home dog versus any team with more wins after playing on the road.

NFL teams are 71-33-4 Over when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Over is 48-17-2 for the favorites when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. NFL teams are 47-25-2 Over the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing and 23-9-1 Over at home the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a dog. NFL teams are 20-7 Over as a home dog the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a dog.

With strong technical and fundamental support we will make the Over in the Saints / Chiefs matchup our play.

Free Pick: Saints-Chiefs Over 50½ (-107)

Expected wet weather and the absence of Tiger Woods has left this year's chase for the claret jug wide open.  Sergio Garcia is a leading contender at Royal Birkdale.

Golf is a maddening sport for players and bettors alike.

Consider the case of the 2007 British Open winner, Padraig Harrington. He was cruising into this year’s 137th Open Championship at Royal Birkdale priced at a reasonable 16-1 on the betting odds list. Then Harrington injured his wrist Saturday swinging into an impact bag. He was still 22-1 at press time, but might not even be able to play after practicing gingerly on Tuesday.

Too bad, because this is the kind of event that’s right up Paddy’s alley. He’s a veteran of the European Tour, and he’s had plenty of experience in the lousy weather conditions they’re expecting in Southport, England for the first two rounds: rain mixed with periods of more rain. The sun should come out on the weekend, but winds should still be blowing near 20 mph on Saturday.

With the weather playing an equalizing factor, Harrington at less than 100 percent and Tiger Woods not participating, the claret jug is very much up for grabs. Sergio Garcia is the favorite at 8-1; he nearly beat Harrington last year before losing in a playoff. Garcia tied for fifth place the previous two years and is coming off an important win in May at The Players Championship. Yet he has never won a major tournament. The popular Spaniard missed the cut at this year’s Masters and finished 18th at the U.S. Open.

Ernie Els (12-1) knows what it’s like to win a major. Els has three under his belt, including the 2002 British Open at Muirfield. He’s placed in the Top 5 in three of the five Opens since then. The man they call “The Big Easy” also has a PGA Tour victory to his credit this year: the Mar. 2 Honda Classic. After finishing second to Tiger Woods on seven occasions (the 2000 Open at St. Andrews is one of them), Els has clear sailing this year in Southport.

Phil Mickelson and Lee Westwood share third-favorite status at 16-1. Mickelson is the more recognizable of the two, but this is by far his most difficult major. Aside from a third-place finish in 2004, “Lefty” has had nothing but trouble at the Open – even missing the cut last year. Mickelson’s chances this time around seem even worse after his 38th place finish at last week’s Scottish Open tune-up. Els placed a much more respectable ninth at Loch Lomond.

Westwood isn’t very well known on this side of the Atlantic, but the Englishman has 18 European Tour victories since turning pro in 1993. He finished fourth in the 2004 British Open and came in third at this year’s U.S. Open; however, Westwood has an even worse track record at the Open than Mickelson does. He missed the cut in three of the last six years and tied for 35th in 2007.

In this wide-open Open environment, the betting value may be even further down the odds list than usual. The winner of the Scottish Open was Graeme McDowell, but at 33-1, the Northern Ireland native’s odds aren’t very long for someone with just four years of pro experience, someone who also missed the cut at last year’s British Open. Someone like David Howell (125-1) might be more worth a spin; he cracked the Top 10 in the world rankings in 2006 before injuries took him off track. Howell will have to improve on last week’s 38th place finish at Loch Lomond, though.

Bringing up the rear at 300-1: Jean Van de Velde. It’s been nine years since his Open meltdown at Carnoustie, and he hasn’t played a major since 2005.

Two worlds will collide at the Superdome when the Ohio State Buckeyes face the LSU Tigers for college football’s national championship. You can look at it as a classic Big Ten-SEC showdown, or a war between offense and defense. But the division in the betting world appears to have the sharps lined up on the side of the Buckeyes as 4-point underdogs to the Tigers.

Looking at the past five title games, the underdog at the open has won all five. The big money on Monday’s OSU-LSU matchup, not surprisingly, has fallen on the Buckeyes. The betting line on this contest has dropped from as high as six points at the open to as low as 3½ points; Ohio State’s payout on the moneyline has dipped from +175 to +150.

As the chalk dries up on LSU, the betting public continues to pound the hyped favorites. Roughly three out of every four bettors were on the Tigers at press time, according to trend reports. They are risking a lot less money and bringing a lot less knowledge to the table, and their numbers are swelling due to the interest in the championship game. No wonder the underdogs have done so well in this situation.

The casual bettor is unlikely to correctly factor the importance of the amount of time in between games for these two clubs. OSU hasn’t played since Nov. 17, and the Tigers’ season finale was Dec. 1. The BCS rankings announcing the OSU-LSU title game came out on Dec. 2. That’s well over a month of preparation time for Buckeyes coach Jim Tressel and Tigers coach Les Miles; Tressel owns 12 various Coach of the Year awards and is considered one of the best in the game. Miles is no slouch, but people are still buzzing over some of the unusual decisions he made this year, especially in the 30-24 win over Auburn.

Having said all that, it appears Miles has saved his best for last. LSU offensive coordinator Gary Crowton told the Associated Press that he’s scripted about 10 plays for QB Ryan Perrilloux. He was the starter for the Tigers’ SEC title clincher over Tennessee, throwing for a TD and rushing for a 2-point conversion in a 21-14 victory. Perrilloux has eight TD passes and just two picks in limited action this season.

Incumbent starter Matt Flynn (17 TDs, 10 INTs) missed the season finale with a shoulder injury. Perrilloux himself was playing with a finger injury; both should be fully healthy Monday. Between Flynn’s assorted bruises and Perrilloux’ off-field behavior, we haven’t seen Miles make the most use out of this two-headed monster. All indications suggest that will change against Ohio State. The Flynn-Perrilloux combo is getting talked about in the same breath as Florida’s title-winning tandem of Chris Leak and Tim Tebow. They, of course, upset the Buckeyes 41-17 last year.

The extra rest over the holidays was arguably even more important for defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey. The 2007 Bronko Nagurski Trophy winner suffered a knee strain against Auburn; he was limited in practices afterward and was less than his explosive self over the last three games. Dorsey leads an LSU defensive front that should be able to put the pressure on Buckeyes QB Todd Boeckman (23 TDs, 12 INTs), even against the outstanding OSU offensive line.

All these bowl-season variables make it difficult enough for handicappers to take what they’ve learned over the course of the season and apply it to Monday’s matchup. Pushing the easy button and taking the underdog is understandable; however, there’s another wrinkle for the title game: New Orleans. It’s hard to beat the atmosphere at Tiger Stadium, but the Superdome does have room for 70,000 screaming LSU fans. The Tigers were 6½-point puppies in 2003 when they beat Oklahoma 21-14 in the Big Easy for a share of the championship.

Kick off is at 8:00 p.m. Eastern of FOX. The posted total is 47.5, down from 49 at the open.

While the press and public talked teams like the Spurs, Celtics, Lakers and Suns up before the season started, the Orlando Magic and New Orleans Hornets were overlooked.  That has changed now with Dwight Howard and the Magic leading the SE Division with the East's third-best record while Chris Paul and the Hornets own the best record in the West and sit atop the SW Division.

The gate-crashers have arrived. The Orlando Magic and the New Orleans Hornets have risen to the top of their respective divisions. Orlando has the most profitable record in the Eastern Conference, while New Orleans rules the Western banks.

And each team has a legitimate MVP candidate backed by a solid supporting cast.

Chris Paul is having the best season of anyone in the league not named LeBron James. The Hornets’ third-year guard has improved dramatically across the board: 22.6 points and 11.2 assists per 40 minutes, an 88.4-percent success rate from the free-throw line, and a mighty 27.93 Player Efficiency Rating, second only to LeBron’s ridiculous 29.86 PER. Paul steers a five-man rotation that balances defense (Morris Peterson) with shooting (Peja Stojakovic) and a commanding paint presence (Tyson Chandler, David West).

Orlando’s wagon is hitched to Dwight Howard. The first overall pick in 2004 is currently sixth in the league with a 24.84 PER, higher than the likes of Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan. Like Paul, Howard has ascended into elite territory with 22.8 points and 15.5 rebounds per 40 minutes. And like the Hornets, Orlando has inside-outside scoring to go along with Howard’s growing command of all things defensive.

Some more depth off the bench would help both clubs survive deep into the postseason. Orlando has already grabbed Maurice Evans and Brian Cook from the Lakers in exchange for Trevor Ariza, plugging Evans into the starting five and giving Cook a significant role off the bench in four of the last five games. If they keep playing at the same level as Monday’s 102-100 win over the visiting Pistons (-2.5), we could see the unthinkable: a Magic-Hornets NBA Finals.

Orlando Magic
27-17 SU
29-15 ATS
Under: 22-21-1
106.2 points per 100 possessions (No. 10 in the league)
102.5 points allowed per 100 possessions (No. 10)

Injuries
Jameer Nelson (foot); Jan. 16, day-to-day
Tony Battie (shoulder); Nov. 30, expected to miss season

New Orleans Hornets
29-12 SU
26-14-1 ATS
Under: 24-17
106.3 points per 100 possessions (No. 9)
100.0 points allowed per 100 possessions (No. 3)

Injuries
Bobby Jackson (hamstring); Jan. 18, day-to-day
Adam Haluska (sprained ankle); Dec. 4, 6-8 weeks

Weekend viewing action...

New Orleans at San Antonio
Saturday, Jan 26, 8:30 pm (ET)
It’ll take more than a win over the Spurs to usher in a changing of the guard in the West. But the incredible 14-2 SU and ATS run New Orleans is riding is legitimate. Chris Paul is that good; however, the last time he faced the Spurs on Nov. 9, Tony Parker dumped 27 points on him in a 97-85 San Antonio victory. That matchup was in the Big Easy; Saturday’s is at the AT&T Center.

The Spurs we’ll see take the floor might be wearing the same uniforms, but they’re not playing like the Spurs we know. San Antonio is 10-10 SU and 7-13 ATS since Dec. 7. The Big Three of Parker, Duncan and Manu Ginobili have played though pain, while age is catching up to Bruce Bowen (36) and Robert Horry (37). Their decline takes some of the starch out of San Antonio’s roster.

Boston at Orlando
Sunday, Jan 27, 1:00 pm (ET) ABC
This will be the third time these two clubs have met this season. They spilt the first two, each team winning on its home court. Orlando is 9-6 SU and ATS since losing in Boston; the Celtics won seven more games in a row before hitting their current 4-4 SU and ATS market correction.

Boston comes into this matchup fairly well rested, having not played back-to-back games in the past two weeks. But Wednesday’s 114-112 loss to the visiting Raptors (+8.5) was no picnic. Toronto shortened the bench and nailed 15 of 21 3-point attempts to take advantage of a Boston perimeter that may be showing sings of wear-and-tear. Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu should stay busy firing away from downtown while Howard and Kevin Garnett battle down low.

Big Easy welcomes NBA All-Star Weekend" src="http://www.sbrforum.com/forum/Pictures/Dwyane_Wade200x250.jpg"/> With most teams having a little more than 60% of their seasons behind them now, the NBA season reaches its All-Star Weekend with a lineup full of action, albeit some of the action a bit fluffy and very corporate.  While some will tune in just to see Alyssa Milano coach one of the celebrity teams, bettors are trying to find the right angles on the Slam Dunk and Three-Point competitions.

The NBA has the best All-Star experience among the major North American pro sports. But they sure do their best to wreck it.

Here’s a list of the events the league has come up with for this weekend in New Orleans:

Friday, 7:00 p.m. Eastern (ESPN): McDonald's NBA All-Star Celebrity Game
Friday, 9:00 p.m. (TNT): T-Mobile Rookie Challenge and Youth Jam
Saturday, 3:00 p.m. (NBA TV): D-League All-Star Game
Saturday, 8:00 p.m. (TNT): NBA All-Star Saturday Night, including:

• Sprite Slam Dunk
• PlayStation Skills Challenge
• Foot Locker Three-Point Shootout
• Haier Shooting Stars

Sunday, 8:00 p.m. (TNT): 57th NBA All-Star Game
Is that schedule bloated and corporate enough for you? At least the celebrity game will feature the two greatest basketball coaches of all-time: Gabrielle Union and Alyssa Milano. And the second annual D-League game is your chance to get a glimpse of intriguing players like Utah’s Kyrylo Fesenko and Tulsa’s Nick Fazekas. But these two events don’t register on the All-Star betting radar.

Rookie Challenge: Rookies vs. Sophomores (-10)
The Sophomores have won the last five games in a row and six of eight since the current format was put in place. No big surprise there. Each of the last five victories has been by double digits, and four of them were by at least 20 points. This year’s Rookie crop is in for a serious hazing: the league’s assistant coaches couldn’t even manage to pick the best players. Where are Thaddeus Young (16.14 Player Efficiency Rating) and Joakim Noah (15.01 PER)? The most efficient player on the Rooks is Sean Williams at 16.19 PER; five Sophs are better, led by Brandon Roy at 20.28 PER.

Slam Dunk: Dwight Howard (2-1)
Howard is the favorite in a tight foursome rounded out by defending champ Gerald Green (13-5), Jamario Moon (29-10) and Rudy Gay (3-1). In addition to the judging panel, fans now get to vote for the winner of the final round by text message and over the Internet, so the popular Howard has a major advantage.

Skills Challenge: Dwyane Wade (9-5)
Wade has won the last two of these in a row. He’ll have some stiff competition from Chris Paul (5-2), Jason Kidd (14-5) and Deron Williams (3-1). Paul is having an MVP-quality season and would be the pick of the litter if Wade were not so good at this event.

Three-Point Shootout: Daniel Gibson (5-1)
Jason Kapono (17-5) is the defending champion and has the highest 3-point completion rate in the league at an amazing 51 percent. But Gibson provides more value at 46.7 percent. Peja Stojakovic is a former champ representing the host city, but is overvalued at 2-1. Kobe Bryant (14-5) is a late scratch with torn ligaments in his right hand. He was replaced by Dirk Nowitzki; check the current NBA player props list for an odds update.

All-Star Game: East vs. West (-7)
The Western Conference is so good, it’s scary. And the East just got a little weaker, as Ray Allen (16.29 PER) has replaced the injured Caron Butler (22.06 PER). Allen is ranked 86th overall in efficiency, but at least he’s better than Jason Kidd (16.06 PER) and Joe Johnson (15.53 PER).

The league is considering a request by the Los Angeles Lakers to allow Bryant to miss this game; he’ll play very limited minutes at most, so the East has dodged a major bullet there at 24.71 PER. However, the West is simply too deep and talented, and they have hometown hero Paul (27.04 PER) poised to steal the show in the Big Easy.

A week after Trevor Immelman claimed the green at The Masters, the PGA moves on to the Verizon Heritage at Hilton Head's Harbour Town course sans Tiger who's out with a bum knee.

Tiger didn't give Trevor Immelman much time to bask.Two days after The Masters, Woods had knee surgery,which will keep him out at least a month (meaning he will miss The Players Championship).

Immelman deserves more attention. He was the last man standing Sunday at Augusta and played all week with confidence and a downright steely determination. Sound like someone we know?

Immelman's been a hot prospect since childhood, like Tiger, and he has certainly been groomed for success. As I watched him last week I kept wondering about the Tiger effect. Maybe we will still see young players come along with a carefree attitude, a go-for-broke mentality more of the Mickelson mode. Will MacKenzie comes to mind. Will we see players like that in green jackets or will the fitting apply only to young Tigers?

Don't get me wrong; Immelman is not a slightly younger version of Tiger and steely determination does not mean lacking creativity or never going forit. Tiger is one of the more visceral players out there when he needs to be. It is the machine-like focus I am talking about. It is the return of Drago, except instead of boxing gloves he is wearing Footjoys.

Maybe this is just the way it is. The green jacket is the most coveted garment in sports. It should not be easy to win it. You should have to sweat it out. You should have to grimace. Ever seen those still shots of Pedro Martinez as he delivers a pitch, his face all stressed and contorted? Bitter Pedro face? Immelman had some of that last week. Maybe a Brandt Snedeker is not going to win at Augusta if he keeps smiling. Maybe it is just that simple. This is serious business.

What a shame, if true. Because it gets boring watching machines. Maybe the overhauled course is to blame: Birdies down, bogeys up. I can see that. But I can also see how the Tiger Era has affected a new breed. And I am not necessarily excited about it because in addition to the sounds of birds chirping I like to hear roars from my TV on the second Sunday in April.

This week's Verizon Heritage on the Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head is a nice way to come down from The Masters. There is the famous lighthouse, nice shots of the Atlantic Ocean and a course that players love. It is a short course, so you would think it might equalize the longer hitters. But that does not explain Davis Love's success, or Ernie Els' or recent winners Aaron Baddeley and Boo Weekley.

Still, some short hitters clearly like this course. Take Justin Leonard (33-1), 1/6 unit: Leonard has lowed some from a strong start, in which he recorded a spate of top-10s in the first weeks of the season.But he still has not missed a cut – he is 10 for 10 – which is a good indication his game continues in the right direction because in recent years making the cut could not be taken for granted. He always plays well at Harbour Town, where he won in 2002.

Take Ernie Els (12-1), 1/6 unit: The Big Easy is all over the place. He wins one week (Honda Classic) and misses the cut the next (PODS Championship). Last week he missed the cut at Augusta. Maybe this week he finally wins in Hilton Head, where he has four top-10s in his last four appearances, including a T2 last year.

Take Kevin Na (66-1), 1/6 unit: Na might be your next Masters champion. A strong young player not known to the world but known inside golf as a talent ready to break through, a little like Zach Johnson and Immelman before their green jackets. He has even got the same stature. Where he does not compare is in hitting greens. I like him this week on a course he likes: Na was T4 last year at Harbour Town and T11 back in 2004.

The Big Easy is the next stop on the Tour with the Zurich Classic this week at TPC Louisiana in Avondale.  Nick Watney returns to defend and go for a share of the $6+ million purse.

I said last week that the only way Tiger Woods can lose these days is if he beats himself. Not exactly a groundbreaking theory but that’s exactly what happened during his third round of the WGC – CA Championship last week.

On a day when two players shot 63 and everyone in contention was well under par, Tiger shot an even-par 72, in part because he missed several short putts. It just wasn’t his day. Sunday wasn’t either, until Monday morning when it was too late.

The tournament was notable for the reappearance of two players who haven’t been in real contention in a while: Jim Furyk and Retief Goosen. I don’t know what happened to Goosen these last couple years. Watching him is like watching J.D. Drew in that the swing is so pure you wonder how it’s possible for him not to be in contention every time. He almost made a birdie on the last hole, which would have forced a playoff. It was a long putt and he just missed it – any time Goosen gets long putts to fall I think of Shinnecock, where he made them from everywhere.

Furyk is a fairway and green-hitting machine who drives the ball about 270. He’s as boring as they come but if he gets the putter going, as he did last week, he can still contend. When he putts he looks more and more like an old man, stooped over like Jack when he putted. Furyk also looks weak these days, like he could use some rich, fatty food from his native Pennsylvania Dutch Country.

Goosen got as high as fourth in the world golf rankings in 2005 and in 2006 Furyk was No. 2 behind Tiger. Furyk had one win in ’07 but he was off to a slow start (for him) this year before the T2 at the WGC event last week. Goosen hasn’t won on Tour since‘05 and he also got out of the gate slowly in ’08 until last week’s T2. Both are looking good now is the point, and it’s worth noting because both are no strangers to the leader boards of major tournaments. We’ll have to see what the odds are in a couple weeks for the Masters – there could be a bargain not-so-dark horse in one of these guys.

At this week’s Zurich Classic of New Orleans, take Steve Stricker (16-1), 1/6 unit: Stricker the Streaky might be ready for another one. Last year from July to September, he had five top-10s in seven tournaments,including a win at the Barclays. In 2006 he finished his year like this: T7, T7, 10, T9, T12. Is it too early in the season to expect a streak and hopefully a win? Maybe.

But think about another streak: the five consecutive birdies he had last Sunday en route to a 63. His last appearance in New Orleans was in 2006. He finished T25.

Take Zach Johnson (25-1), 1/6 unit: Johnson is looking to tune up for his defense at Augusta in a couple weeks. He played well last week with a T9 and, by the way, he also finished T9 at the WGC – CA Championship last year then won his next tournament, the Masters. Hmmmm.

Take Tim Clark (40-1), 1/6 unit: No one knows why this guy hasn’t won on Tour. He’s won a few times internationally and he’s had a handful of second-place finishes on Tour, including at the Masters two years ago. After missing three cuts to start the year he’s gone T33, T31, and a T12 last week. The last three winners of the Zurich Classic have been first-timers. Maybe it’s Clark’s time.

Despite being at home, New Orleans is due for a letdown after a big win over the Spurs.  Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers are the right play as small favorites in the Big Easy.

After a huge blowout win over the defending champion San Antonio Spurs, I expect a letdown out of the Hornets at home tonight.

The Lakers have already visited New Orleans once this season and they dropped a 29-point defeat on the Hornets. New Orleans is just 7-24 ATS off a home win against a division rival since 1996.

Los Angeles is 20-6 ATS in road games after scoring 110 points or more over the last two seasons, 14-4 ATS when playing four or fewer games in 10 days this season, and 22-10 ATS in road games this season. Take the well-rested Lakers here. 

Free Pick: Lakers -1½ (-110)

All-Star game totals in most sports are usually inflated as the betting public loves the Over in these games, and the NBA is no exception, with the Under going 11-6 last 17.

The NBA All-Star Game is simply a showtime exhibition with the best players from the West and East displaying their basketball skills in front of a National TV audience and playing to an adoring crowd in attendance at the Big Easy.

The public loves to play this game Over the total, which seems like the natural inclination as little defense is played. However, the oddsmakers already take this into account, and the smart player will lean to the low side as we note that the Under has gone a very solid 11-6 the last 17 All-Star classics, including two of the last three.

Go Under the lofty number again in this year’s edition.

Free Pick: NBA All-Stars Under 262

The Saints have turned things around, and they are off of their most dominating game of the season. Add in the revenge factor, and look for a handy win vs. the Bucs.

The NFC South Title will be on the line when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers invade the “Big Easy” to take on the resurgent New Orleans Saints.

[articleBanner]who2beton[/articleBanner] The Bucs have had a stranglehold on the division lead ever since the season started, while the Saints stumbled out of the gates only to turn their season around over the last seven weeks. This is a huge game for both clubs. With the Bucs taking the first meeting earlier this year, a win would give them three games up in the division and the winner of the head-to-head tiebreaker. However, a win by the home team would close the gap between the two clubs with Tampa only holding a one game lead.

As mentioned earlier, the Bucs took care of the Saints way back in Week 2. Many expected the Saints to bounce back from their opening week loss at Indianapolis with a solid effort, but it wasn’t in the cards and the Bucs served up a good old fashioned drubbing in Raymond James.

Last week saw the Saints go on the road and put forth one of their more dominating efforts of the season. Granted, it was against a very poor Carolina club, but the Saints wasted no time in letting their opponent know whose boss and rolled their way to a commanding 31-6 road win and cover.

As for the Bucs, they got out of the gates quickly vs. the Redskins and found themselves up 19-3 at the half. However, it was all downhill form there as quarterback Jeff Garcia got injured and back-up QB Bruce Gradkowski couldn’t move the Bucs offense whatsoever. Washington squandered a number of chances to take the lead in the second half, and the Bucs were lucky to hold on for the home win and cover.

The Saints are 3½-point favorites in this contest. Tampa is 2-3 straight up and against the spread on the road this season and a poor 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road dog. As for the Saints, they’ve been woeful against Tampa of late. They’re 0-4 ATS the last four times they’ve hosted the Bucs and 1-4 ATS in their last five overall meetings.

The Saints certainly don't look to be an attractive proposition with all the trends stated up above, but I still don't believe Tampa is as good as their record indicates. The Saints owe them after absorbing that shellacking back in Week 2. Washington was able to throw for 300 yards in the second half of last week’s game, and that should have the Saints offense eager to get a second crack at them.

The Saints will carry over the momentum they built last week in Carolina, and march to their sixth victory of the season.

Free Pick: Saints -3½

The NFL season is off and running now with each team having three games under their belt.  Among the head-scratching stories so far are the Packers sitting 3-0 and the Saints 0-3.  Several key players have been lost for the season as well.  Here's a look at the undefeated, the winless and the injured.

Matchups do indeed make football games. We’ve seen the strengths and weaknesses of every NFL team exposed for three weeks now, some are clearly stronger (or weaker) than the betting public expected.

The most interesting story is in New Orleans, where the Saints have fallen from 8-1 to 40-1 to win the Super Bowl. They’re one of just two teams in the league to start the season 0-3 straight up and against the spread. Pundits may talk of the pressure of playing in the post-Katrina Big Easy, but the real story is bad defense and injuries.

Handicappers are well aware that New Orleans was not too great at defense last year, 19th in the league in terms of efficiency. They’re worse now, but in ways that are not getting a lot of national attention. Nagging injuries on the defensive line to Kendrick Clancy and Brian Young are front and center. The Saints have very little depth on the line, and are now 30th in the league in defense.

The talk around the water cooler, meanwhile, is on the faltering offense. Now that RB Deuce McAllister is out for the year with torn knee ligaments, the Saints no longer have a power running complement to Reggie Bush. Not that McAllister was getting many touches to begin with. Without that running attack, and with the defense coughing up so many points, QB Drew Brees has been forced to air it out, throwing one touchdown and seven interceptions already.

A similar tale is being woven in St. Louis, where the Rams are also 0-3 SU and ATS. This is another one-dimensional team that was defensively challenged last year at No. 29 overall. Now two crucial 'non-skill' players have been lost for the season: offensive linemen Orlando Pace and Mark Setterstrom. Without them, the house of cards has fallen; RB Steven Jackson has just 3.4 yards per carry and zero touchdowns after three weeks, and he’s out for Week 4 with a partial groin tear. The under is 3-0 in Mound City as a result.

On the other side of the ledger, the Green Bay Packers are one of four teams sitting pretty at 3-0 SU and ATS. The other three might not surprise you: New England, Dallas and Pittsburgh. Their offenses have been as mighty as advertised, taking the over to a combined 8-1 mark. But not much was expected from the Packers this year, at least not in conventional media circles: ESPN had Green Bay ranked 24th in its preseason power rankings.

The football universe continues to revolve around QB Brett Favre, but it’s in the trenches where the Packers have quietly done their damage. The offensive line has improved at pass protection with Daryn Colledge and Jason Spitz entering their sophomore seasons, and the front seven has been solid against the run. Their yeoman work is why Green Bay has won all three games this year as underdogs.

Developing at low-profile positions has also lifted three other NFL teams to 3-0 ATS marks thus far: Tennessee, Houston and Arizona. The Titans put an exclamation point on Monday’s 31-14 pounding of the Saints by picking Brees off four times, three of them by linebacker Keith Bulluck. The most impressive stat, though, was the 34 yards rushing New Orleans was limited to on 16 carries. The under is now 3-0 for the Titans.

Houston’s makeover can be credited to the work the coaching staff, led by Gary Kubiak, started doing in 2006. Defensive coordinator Richard Smith has installed a 4-3 scheme that has lifted Houston from 26th in the league in rush defense to ninth overall. And the Cardinals are miles ahead of where they were last year, thanks in large part to head coach Ken Whisenhunt and assistant Russ Grimm’s arrival from Pittsburgh. They’ve improved Arizona’s offensive line enormously; the Cards are now tops in the NFL in pass protection, allowing just two sacks in three games.

Injuries were a big problem for both Houston and Arizona last year. If they can stay upright in 2007, there is probably more betting upside for them than the popular Packers. But it only takes one major injury to spoil things.

Even the remodeled San Francisco defense is in trouble without linebacker Manny Lawson for the rest of the season, as evidenced by their 37-16 dismantling at the hands of the Steelers. Super rookie Patrick Willis can’t do it all himself.

The 'Tiger Effect' won't be in effect at this week's Wyndham Championship at Forest Hills CC in Greensboro, NC.  Neither will defending champ Davis Love III who is out with kidney stones.

The Tiger Effect is still very much in effect. It was everywhere you looked last weekend at the PGA Championship.

On Saturday, Luke Donald sported a red shirt and black pants. A year earlier, paired with Woods in the final round of the season's last major, Donald wore red and was out of contention after two holes.

He wasn't the only one wearing a red shirt and black pants on Saturday. Stuart Appleby, Phil Mickelson and Retief Goosen also got the red-black memo. Were they trying to make a statement on moving day?

On Sunday, Stephen Ames was paired with Woods. He started bogey-bogey and finished with eight total bogeys en route to a 76.

Also Sunday, announcer Gary McCord said, "What the hell was that?" after Ernie Els flew a short wedge 20 yards past the 16th hole. It was Els' last chance. He had a great round but, alas, it wasn't enough and the Big Easy finished third (usually he finishes runner-up to Woods).

But the ultimate example of the Tiger effect came in the post-tournament comments of Woody Austin. You would have thought he won, so proud he was of hearing a roar belonging to him and not Tiger, so proud he was of giving Tiger some competition even if he was the only person on the planet who thought he actually had a chance.

"He scored better than me, he played better than me," Austin said. "Does that mean he's better than me?"

Yes, Woody Austin. It does. The 13 majors, 56 Tour victories and nine international victories have something to do with why he's better than you, too.

Last week: I thought about putting it all on Tiger. I've done it in the past and he hasn't come through. So, the 1/6 unit at 7-4 yielded only 0.3 units. Now, what to do about Sergio? Thursday he was in the mix but by Friday he barely made the cut at +5. Then, on Saturday he was disqualified for an incorrect scorecard. That counts as a loss in the head-to-head and yet another lesson learned -- stay away from the hothead for a while. Minus 0.7 units on the week brings the tally to -18.6.

At this week's Wyndham Championship, take Fredrik Jacobson (30-1), 1/6 unit: Fabulous Freddy J can play. A top-10 every month except May since he started his U.S. campaign in April, the most recent a T10 at the Buick Open in July. Just his second time playing the Greesnboro tournament, he finished T51 in 2004.

Take Jason Gore (100-1), 1/6 unit: Gore has looked too comfortable since his breakout 2005 season. He hasn't won since and has missed a lot of cuts. Just over a month ago he finished T2 at the Buick Open, though. He looked good. Smooth, compact, simple swing. Excellent iron player. The rub is the flat stick.

Take Will MacKenzie (80-1), 1/6 unit: This guy keeps hanging around. Whereas other young players got off to fast starts and have slowed as the long season has churned on (Jeff Quinney comes to mind), MacKenzie's aloha spirit keeps figuring into competitive finishes. He has two top-10s and five top-25s in 2007. His only win on Tour came last year in the similarly talent-challenged Reno-Tahoe Open.

Shortsightedness by the public is driving this total too high.  Bet the Under Saturday evening when the Tampa Bay Storm and New Orleans Voodoo battle in the Big Easy.

With New Orleans partaking in a barnburner last Monday night vs. New York, many have flocked to bet this week’s total Over the number as it has risen almost three points from the opening number. Why they expect such a high scoring affair between these two clubs is beyond me, but we’ll look to benefit from their shortsightedness.

Both clubs rank in the bottom half of the league offensively. Tampa Bay has averaged a whopping 46 PPG all season long, and the same exact number their last three games. New Orleans has really struggled to score of late averaging 43 PPG in their last three, which is down six points from their season average of 49 PPG.

The Storm have played some lights-out defense of late as evidenced by holding the potent Georgia Force to their lowest output in a home game this season (52) just last week. The Voodoo’s defense has put forth some unbelievable stinkers the last month or so, but they should be able to rebound here in their own backyard and contain the vanilla Tampa offense.

Numbers wise, my system shows only six points of value towards the Under taking into account both clubs' season-long statistical averages. However, this number jumps to 10 points of value by examining how each club has performed over the last three weeks of action. That’s the kind of value I can’t pass up when breaking down AFL totals, so sit back and see how much higher this total rises and laugh all the way to the window once these division rivals play to a 40-37 final.

Free Pick: Storm-Voodoo Under 100½ (-110)

Look for the Eagles and Saints to go under the posted total this Saturday when the two teams meet in the Big Easy.

This total seems rather inflated when you consider that all Philadelphia games are averaging a combined 45.3 points this year, while all New Orleans games are averaging 45.9 points.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Eagles have run the ball much better on the road than that at home, as Brian Westbrook and Company are averaging 150.7 rushing yards per road game on an impressive 5.3 yards per game. We look for Philadelphia to take advantage of that fact here vs. a suspect Saints run defense that is allowing 122.9 rushing yards per game at home. Also the Eagle defense played much better during its playoff push, and even in a sub-par effort in the Wild Card round, the final point total of 43 would still be safely under this total.

Conversely the Saints will rely on the passing of Drew Brees who put up some MVP-type numbers this season. Keep in mind, however, that his next playoff victory will be his first, and the New Orleans offense does not match up well with a Philadelphia defense that is allowing just 189.5 passing yards per game this year on 5.8 yards per pass attempt.

Finally, the Saints have had a history of playing more conservatively in the postseason during prior coaching regimes, and it will be interesting to see if Sean Payton goes the same route.

Play: Eagles-Saints Under 49

Big Easy set for LSU-Notre Dame battle in Sugar Bowl" src="http://www.sbrforum.com/forum/Pictures/collegefootball2.jpg"/> The Boys from Bayou Country take on the Luck o’ the Irish tonight in the Sugar Bowl as LSU meets Notre Dame.  Quarterback’s Brady Quinn of the Fighting Irish and JaMarcus Russell of the Tigers will be highlighted in this BCS showdown.  But it just may be the defenses that decide the outcome once the ball is teed up at 8:00 p.m. on FOX.

One of the little known facts about New Orleans is there were actually more Irish living and working in the city in the early 1900s than were living and working in Boston.  And there’s little doubt the Irish population of the Big Easy has swelled over the past few days leading into tonight’s Sugar Bowl showdown between #11 Notre Dame and #4 LSU.

Head coach Charlie Weis brings his 10-2 Irish into tonight’s game as fairly heavy underdogs to Les Miles’ 10-2 Tigers who many feel are the best team in the SEC.  Kickoff at the Louisiana Superdome is slated for 8:00 p.m. (ET).

LSU closed the season with a 6-game win streak, including victories over then-#8 Tennessee (on the road) and then-#5 Arkansas (also on the road).  It’s doubtful that any team faced a tougher road slate this season as the Tigers played away from home against four teams that were ranked eighth or higher at the time of the games.

The Tigers’ only two loses were at Auburn, 7-3, back in mid-September and at Florida, 23-10, in early October.

While their offense is a very capable unit, LSU’s defense was the strength this season as the Tigers allowed just 150 points in their dozen games.  LSU held half of their schedule to seven points or less with Arkansas’ 26 points in the season finale the most the Tigers allowed in a single game.

Quarterback JaMarcus Russell sort of slid under the radar this year, ending with a 168+ rating and 26 TD passes to just seven picks.  Russell was picked off three times in both the loss at Florida and the win at Tennessee, throwing just one other interception (against Arizona on Sep 9) in the other 10 games.

Notre Dame’s two defeats came in convincing fashion at the hands of this year’s Rose Bowl participants.  The Wolverines slapped the Irish in South Bend, 47-21, in mid-September, then were popped 44-24 by the Trojans in Notre Dame’s season final out in Los Angeles over Thanksgiving wekkend.

Three of the Irish’s wins came against the service academies in a 4-game span from late October to mid-November.

Brady Quinn was the star for Notre Dame, and he comes into this game as the most likely #1 pick in this spring’s NFL draft.  The 6-4, 225-pound quarterback threw 35 touchdown passes against only five interceptions on the season, ending the year with a 151+ QB rating.  Quinn rallied the Irish in a wild 40-37 win at Michigan State on Sep 23, throwing five scores on a 20-for-36, 319 yard rainy afternoon.

While the talking heads in the media focus their attention on Quinn, the real spotlight on the Irish is squarely on their defense.   Notre Dame surrendered 269 points to their opposition during the season, including 44+ to both USC and Michigan.

This will be LSU’s 38th bowl appearance, and the seventh straight year they’ve made a postseason appearance.  The Tigers are 19-18, including 7-2 in their last nine bowl games.  LSU crushed Miami (Fl), 40-3 in last year’s Peach Bowl, and this is their 13th Sugar Bowl trip.  The last time LSU faced Notre Dame in a bowl game, the Tigers triumphed 27-9 in the 1997 Independence Bowl.

Notre Dame will be appearing in their 28th bowl game and their fourth Sugar Bowl.  The Irish fell to Ohio State, 34-20, in last season’s Fiesta Bowl to extend their postseason losing streak to eight games.  The last time Notre Dame won a bowl contest was in the Jan 1, 1994, Cotton Bowl when they got past Texas A&M, 24-21.

The game has been wagered to an 8-point advantage for LSU as the kickoff draws nearer, with the total in the 55-55½ range at most shops.  Neither team posted anything close to eye-popping ATS stats on the year with the Tigers 6-5 against the spread in 2006 and the Irish a money-draining 4-7.

LSU was a perfect 4-0 versus the numbers in non-conference contests, and the Tigers were 6-3 ATS when posted as the favorites.  LSU is 6-3 ATS in bowl games since 1992.  Notre Dame was 0-1 on the year ATS the only time they were listed as the underdog, with the Irish just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 bowl games.

The Hornets are the right play tonight against the Rockets as New Orleans finally gets a chance to play a true home game in the Big Easy.

Break up the Hornets! The Hornets had a remarkable season last year considering they did not play a single true home game and this year will play the first of six home games tonight in the New Orleans Arena.  Their other 35 home games will be in Oklahoma City.

Amazingly, the Hornets went 24-18 at home last year and they sure catch the Rockets in a tough spot here. Houston routed the Mavs last night, 107-76, as Ming scored 36.  T-Mac shot just 4-of-11 though, and scored only eight. The Rockets didn't look very good in their first road game this year, losing in Utah on Weds, 107-97.

As for the Hornets, the team has opened 2-0 with wins at Boston and Indiana. Paul is off to a great start (18.0-4.5-8.0) and newcomer Tyson Chandler is averaging 12.0 RPG. Peja (9.5 PPG) is not off to a quick start, but this guy's a scorer and its just a matter of time. Even David Stern will be there for this one and the Hornets don't disappoint the New Orleans fans.

Play: Hornets -4