With relatively manageable matches ahead of them, both Roger Federer and Venus Williams are in search of another Wimbledon Championship.

If American sports history has proven anything, it is that the masses love to root for the little guy, the choo-choo train with the engine that never could, the underdog with odds stacked against them, the one person nobody expects to succeed.

It is their determination not to fail, not to falter in the face of adversity, the will to prevail when faced with a man or woman much greater in talent than themselves that shapes the entire backbone of American sports.

As we are more than halfway through the Super Bowl of tennis, the Wimbledon Championship, betting boards in Las Vegas are illuminated by quarter-finals odds from both the ATP and WTA tennis draw. Sorry America, the dogs aren’t barking.

WTA
Venus Williams vs. Agnieszka Radwanska
Venus leads the series 3-1 having won the last 3 encounters, with Radwanska’s lone victory against the American occurring back in 2006 at the Luxembourg tournament when Venus was battling injury. About the only positive Radwanska could draw from is the fact that in March of 2009 she snatched a set against Venus on hard court at the Miami Premier event, that is the only set she has taken from Venus in the last 3 matches.

I absolutely love Agnieszka Radwanskas game, she plays a different style of tennis than most ladies on tour, she has very little power with which to work with and makes up for it with her excellent court coverage, defense, and tennis IQ. She is a player that doesn’t seem to suffer from the same chemical imbalance most ladies on tour do, she isn’t going to gift matches away with unforced errors, isn’t going to hit the panic button should she drop serve. However, her one weak point is the fact that she has no answer for a player with Venus’ skill. I was tempted to say the word ‘power’, but the fact is Radwanska is more than capable of holding her own against heavy hitters, but she has historically done better against the likes of the Petrovas and Wozniackis. The reason for this is these players, while having dominating powerful groundstrokes, often times are deficient in the intangibles department, frequently not making key adjustments to utilize their power.

Venus Williams doesn’t have that problem. She is a master at harnessing her power on grass, and is capable of blowing out the best in the world from wire to wire , as evidenced today in her 6-1 0-1 rout over Ana Ivanovic, dominating her so much that the Serb retired in defeat.

The tennis enthusiast in me wants to say Radwanska is worth a shot at these incredible odds, but the tennis handicapper knows better.

The pick: Venus Williams -655

Other WTA picks include: Dinara Safina -202, Francesca Schiavone +271, Serena Williams -286.

ATP
Roger Federer vs. Ivo Karlovic
Federer leads the series 8-1, but it should be stated that out of those 9 matches there were 12 tiebreaks, the only time the two met on the Grand Slam level was back Wimbledon 2004 where Roger won in straight sets which included two tiebreakers.

The only time Karlovic defeated Federer was back in July of 2008, a month after Rafael Nadal had shocked the world and surpassed Federer by defeating him in the five-set thriller at Wimbledon and snatching the #1 ranking away from the Swiss in the process. It should be stated that Federer was not playing anywhere close to his best at that time, the match included two tiebreakers and the final score-line read Ivo Karlovic 76 46 76.

Federer is nonetheless -775 in a match which again figures to be decided largely by who outplays the other in the tiebreakers. Karlovic rifled down 35 aces in his 4 set win over Fernando Verdasco, won 73% behind his first ball and committed 33 unforced errors. He also was no slouch on the return having had 6 break point opportunities, although he had capitalized off only one. Karlovic in years past has had a reputation of a one-trick pony,  a 6ft 10 Croatian that has the best serve on tour, but is often not prudent on the return with his big clumsy stature and lack of touch. Karlovic has obviously spent an immense amount of time working on his game, as he loves rushing into the net and trying to end each rally with one huge approach. He has incredible wingspan and has also improved his match fitness, having developed a reputation of an early exit on the Grand Slam level as he had up to this point never advanced past the 3rd round. It was believed that his lack of endurance hampered his ability to win best of 5 matches, as opposed to the non Grand Slam tournaments where each match is best of 3.

I can tell you right now, the value is NOT on Roger Federer in this match, even though I like his chances to get it done in 4 or 5 sets. He is my pick to win the championship, but I simply can’t justify laying $775 to win $100 in a match where it is reasonable to believe going in there will be two if not more tiebreakers involved.

Federer was impressive in his straight sets dismissal of Robin Soderling, hammering 23 aces and winning 67% behind his first ball. He had only 8 unforced errors the entire match which is quite impressive, he gave Robin only 2 break point opportunities but neither were taken advantage of by the Swede. Federer got in some much needed tiebreaker practice as he defeated Soderling 64 76 76.

Just to put into perspective how good Roger Federer is, even if Karlovic has his best serving game of the tournament, rifles down 50 aces, gives away only one break point opportunity to Federer, I still have to favor the superior skill, decision making, and big game experience of Roger Federer and do like him to break Karlovic whenever possible. Alternatively, I also like Roger to win this match even if we see only tiebreakers. Whereas if you place the shoe on the other foot, I do not think Karlovic has two ways of winning this match. He will either serve his way into the Semi Finals or he will go home, either way it is off his racket and he has no exit strategy if his serve is not clicking. He likely will not break Federer in this match and most certainly is not skilled enough of a returner to hang in there for the real pressure building points.

The pick: No value, but if I had to, I’d take Federer to win 3-1 and 3-2 at the best sportsbook odds possible.

Other ATP picks include: Andy Roddick -242, Tommy Haas +210, and a lean on Andy Murray depending what the odds come out as against JC Ferrero.

Stop on by the tennis betting subforum to chat with fellow handicappers!

With Joe Blanton on the mound for the home team and facing Brad Mills for Toronto, the Philadelphia Phillies should easily avoid being swept in this three-game set.

The Phillies have the superior pitcher on the mound here Thursday afternoon with Joe Blanton (4-3, 5.17 ERA) who is 2-0 with an ERA of just 2.00 over his last four starts. The Jays send Brad Mills to the mound who will make his major league debut in a hitter's ball park against a very potent Phillies lineup that has lots of power.

Don't get left out of the SBR/Bodog Poker Free Roll Contest

Mills was 1-8 with a 4.48 ERA over 13 starts with Triple-A Las Vegas and I do not see his MLB debut lasting long in Philadelphia today. The Jays are just 1-7 in their last eight games in Game 3 of a series and they are just 0-5 in their last five interleague games when facing a righthanded starter.

The Phillies are 9-1 in Blanton's last 10 starts after a team loss in their previous game, and the Phillies are 20-8 in their last 28 games against a lefty starter. Take Philadelphia to avoid the sweep at home as on Thursday afternoon.

Free Pick: Phillies -155

After dropping 10 straight Super Bowls (1987-96), the AFC has stormed back to win eight of the last 11, including the last four.  Is the NFC showing signs of reversing that trend?

NFL fans and observers entered the 2007 season believing the AFC was far superior to the NFC and its older, more established teams.

Caesars Palace Race and Sports Director Chuck Esposito went on record before the campaign's early-September start saying he felt as many as six AFC clubs were better than the NFC's best, which, at the time, widely was thought to be defending conference champion Chicago.

Now folks are warbling a new tune.

The AFC's still supreme, but some NFC backup singers also are being heard. The NFL has five unbeaten clubs going into Week 4 and two are from the NFC: Green Bay and Dallas, a.k.a. America's team.

Both are favorites this weekend, but still play very differing roles.

The Packers are a field goal favorite over neighboring Minnesota at Bodog. Green Bay was a 1-point choice in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest and a 1½ point pick in other Sin City competitions. Bodog has the Cowboys laying 13½, while the Hilton had the line at 13. Dallas was an 11½-point selection in the South Point-El Cortez high roller contest, which drew 84 participants at $2,500 a crack.

Professional Handicappers League member Jimmy Boyd, who continues to battle for its All-Around points title, thinks the Pack has one thing going for it this week: Lambeau Field.

"The Packers are for real at home," Boyd said. "Their road win over the Giants doesn't impress me all that much. New York isn't exactly good defensively.

"If this team can be consistent on the road, in the second half of the year, when they have six of their last 10 games away from Lambeau, you bet I'll be believing. It's still a little too early to tell, but there's no doubt that they are improved from a season ago."

Packers futures are falling quickly, as are those on Dallas.

The Hilton listed Gren Bay at 20/1 on Friday, down from 50/1 when the season began. The Cowboys have dropped all the way to 7/1, making it a big favorite over the 1-2 Chicago Bears.

Many folks, though, haven't totally written off the Bears, who are giving three points at Bodog to the visiting Lions on Sunday. Many Las Vegas contests pegged the number at 2½.

"The Bears are still number two in the NFC in my book with as weak as this conference is," Boyd said. "They'll have to take another lump before I change my tune. I think the change to Griese will at least allow the Bears to stay out of the turnover trouble that Rex has put them in."

Chicago announced this week that Griese will start against Detroit over Grossman, who threw three interceptions in the Bears' Sunday night loss to Dallas.

We finally know the eight teams in the MLB postseason after Colorado's win Monday night.  Can the Rockies keep it going or will the Cubs and Yankees come out on top?

Why not just declare Major League Baseball's 2007 Playoffs and World Series null and void, hand championship rings over to the Chicago Cubs and make bookmakers everywhere finally pay off futures on the erstwhile Windy City losers?

Heck, even the crosstown neighbor sad-sack White Sox claimed a World Championship in 2005, proving miracles happen on 35th Street as well as 34th. And it only took the Southsiders 88 years between (legitimate) tiaras; Northsiders have been dry for 99.

Of course the Colorado Rockies might have something to say about any such cancellation, following what they've been through the last few weeks just to qualify for the post-season, their first trip since 1995. The Mile High City citizens, winners of 13 of their last 14 games, capped a stunning three-run rally in the bottom of the 13th inning Monday to beat San Diego 9-8 and claim the National League's Wild Card berth.

The Rockies open against National League East Division winner Philadelphia in Game 1 of the divisional plaoffs on Thursday.

The Cubs first travel West to face the Diamondbacks in a match between winners of the loop's Central and West Division champions. The Wednesday night game will feature righthanders Carlos Zambrano of Chicago and Brandon Webb of Arizona.

Bodog.com didn't have numbers posted early Tuesday morning, but Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which makes lines for Nevada books, released the D-Backs as a minus $1.25 favorite and the total at 7½.

Professional Handicappers League member Bill Fishman rates the American League as far superior and gives it the overall edge.

"Pitching in the National League is weak and it doesn't have an offense," Fishman said.

"Cleveland will give the Yankees all they can handle and Boston wins in four. The NL it is up for grabs and I feel the Cubs have a real shot. If they get pitching out of Zambrano, (Ted Lily) Lilly and Co., they could really compete with offense and defense."

That's the series everyone has an opinion on that and sentiment swings toward the long-barren Cubs and their loyal fans.

The last time the Wrigleyites advanced, a controversial incident cost them a flag, almost as if there really is a Billy Goat Sianis jinx cast many moons ago.

While Colorado's comeback against the Padres still was being dissected Monday night, folks had had a couple days to digest the prospect of a Cubs pennant and world title. PHL member Jimmy Boyd gives Arizona a Round 1 edge over Chicago because there's a good chance Webb will get two starts if it goes the distance.

"The Cubs are the more talented team all in all," Boyd said. "Not too many teams have an Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. (Manager) Lou Piniella gives Chicago the experience of having won the big one before; the Cubs barely got into the postseason, though."

Seasoned sports gamblers would insist Piniella's ascension to top step in the Cubs dugout had a lot to do with the whole scheme of things.

LVSC oddsmaker Ken White notes that he sent out early Cubs futures, dating back a year ago, at 75/1, but numbers dropped drastically when Piniella took over.

"They went down to like 30 or 35/1, overnight and they've been dropping since," White said.

Sin City bet shops had the Cubs in a 3/1 range through much of the late season.

"I don't think you'll find a lot of books getting hurt at the really long futures," White continued.

The oddsmaker dubbed Chicago and Boston as the two favorites to win the World Series, saying he'd peg the Cubs at 6/1 and Red Sox at 5/1.

Boyd gives Boston a slight edge in its series against the Los Angeles Angels, which also begins Wednesday. Josh Beckett will be on the mound for the Red Sox and John Lackey for the Angels.

"If the Angels are going to win this series, they are going to have to do it on the mound which has been their bread and butter all season long." Boyd said. "The Sox did pitch better, defend better, and score more than LA this season, but the Angels' aggressiveness on the bases makes them a tough out in any series, especially a short five-gamer.

"The Red Sox went from one of the best starting rotations in the league to one of the worst in just one season and a turnaround came with it. If Manny can be effective despite his strained oblique, the Red Sox should have the advantage at home."

Vernon Wells and the Blue Jays are about as hot as any team going right now with an AL-best 18-9 record, a major league high 159 runs scored on the season and having won their last three series.  Eleven of those 18 wins have come vs. the AL Central, and they'll have a chance to add to that number over the next two days at home in the Rogers Centre when they host Grady Sizemore and the Cleveland Indians.

There will be no rest for major league teams at all this week as the slate hits a unique seven day period.  Every team will play a pair of quickie two-game series Monday through Thursday before heading into the standard three game sets next weekend.  The only reason I can think of for Bud Selig & Co. to do this is simply to further skew what is a willy-nilly schedule overall.

Ah, but I am not here to talk about that as the good news is there is a full, 15-game schedule each of the next seven days in the bigs meaning plenty of viewing and betting opportunities.  The absence of off days also keeps rotations from being altered by managers for the most part, lending to a little more consistency on planning ahead as far as matchups that could be profitable.  Some rainouts and rain delays from this past weekend, however, have already shifted some rotations so make sure and keep an eye on that.

The two-game series that caught my eye to open the week is the Cleveland Indians, passports in hand, traveling into Canada to meet the Toronto Blue Jays. Now there are some bigger rivalries going on to open the week, beginning with the Red Sox making their first visit to new Yankee Stadium.  And there are some better pitching matchups on Monday than Fausto Carmona, on the mound for the Tribe, and Brian Tallet who takes the Rogers Centre mound for the first pitch at 7:07 p.m. (ET).  Tuesday's Game 2 is an early one with a 12:37 p.m. start time.

But this series is intriguing to me because it involves two teams doing exactly the opposite of what most people thought they would perform this season.  Toronto (18-9, +8.05 units) was picked to run a distant fourth to the Big 3 in the AL East.  Instead they are leading the division through the first four weeks of the campaign.

A consensus pick to battle for the AL Central title this year, Cleveland (9-16, -8.15) begins the week dead last in the division.  This series could be our first sign of whether either team's current ways are for real.

It's also interesting to note that Carmona's 6.28 ERA is the lowest of any pitcher scheduled to pitch in this series.  The Indians are 1-4 in his five outings, including dropping his last start which was Carmona's best effort of season, 6.2 IP, 2 ER in a 6-5 loss to the Red Sox.  Marco Scutaro has seen him the most of anyone in this Blue Jays lineup, rapping out six hits, all singles, in 14 AB against the righthander.  The rest of the batters that could face Carmona on Monday are a combined 8-for-41 (.195) with no home runs.

He shut the Jays out in Cleveland on May 12, 2008, in his most recent start against Toronto.  His only start at the Rogers Centre came in July 2007 when he worked 5.1 innings and allowed three runs in a 9-4 win for the Tribe.  Those are the only two occasions that he has pitched against the Blue Jays in his short career so far.

After beginning the season in the bullpen for Toronto, the lefthanded Tallet (2-1, 6.45 ERA) has made three starts.  In his first two assignments, he worked a combined 11 innings against the A's and on the road against the White Sox, allowing just one earned run and eight hits.  But his most recent start was an absolute stinker when he was tagged for 10 earned runs and three homers in four innings at the Royals in an 11-3 KC win.

A former Indian having spent parts of the 2002-03 and 2005 seasons with Cleveland, he has never made a start against the Tribe.  In fact, this will be just the 10th major league start of his career.  He has faced them in relief over the years, with Victor Martinez having the most success facing Tallet with two hits, including a homer, in four at bats.

Anthony Reyes (3-1, 7.58 ERA) has struggled for the most part this year, yet the Indians have found a way to win three of his four starts.  His last outing (Apr 28) saw him yanked in the third inning at home vs. Boston, with Reyes charged with seven earnies.  The Tribe managed to come back and win that one, 9-8.  He has seen the Blue Jays once already this season, in his 2009 debut on April 12, with Reyes working six innings and being charged with four runs in Cleveland's 6-4 win.

He made one start at the Rogers Centre in Aug 2008, and came away the winner in a 5-2 Cleveland triumph.  Reyes scattered seven hits and a walk over 6.1 frames, allowing just a single run to cross the plate.  That game marked his Indians debut after a trade from St. Louis, and is his only history versus Toronto though Reyes has faced some of the hitters in their lineup when they were with various clubs.  Overall, the Jays hitters who might come to the plate to face the righthander are 13-for-63 (.206) with the only long balls off him belonging to Michael Barrett (on the DL with shoulder injury) and Vernon Wells, with Wells' blast coming when the two faced each other on April 12 this season.

Making his major league debut in this one as Toronto's starter is lefthander Brett Cecil.  He was called up from Triple-A Las Vegas last Friday when the Blue Jays shuffled the pitching deck and swapped a trio of arms (David Purcey, Brian Burres and Bryan Bullington) for Cecil, Robert Ray and Brian Wolfe.  Cecil was a sandwich pick between Rounds 1 and 2 of the 2007 draft, and had a record of 0-3 in four starts for Las Vegas this year with an 8.31 ERA.

Cecil pitched on three different levels in the minors a year ago, compiling an 8-5 record in 28 starts, and striking out 129 in 118.2 innings.  He was used primarily as a closer in his college days at Maryland, and has a big league fastball and slider.  That 8.31 ERA he brings in from Las Vegas has a lot to do with Cashman Field in Sin City having a reputation as a hitters park.

Weather obviously won't be an issue indoors at Rogers Centre for this one. The Blue Jays were going off around -115 to Cleveland's +105 for Game 1, with the total set at 10 (Over +110, Under -120).

NOTE: The W-L records shown for starting pitchers is their team's W-L mark when they start games.  Statistical sources for this article were Retrosheet.org, Baseball-Reference.com and ESPN.com.

Two rookie hurlers take to the mound in Toronto today when the Blue Jays and Tigers complete their series.  Detroit's Rick Porcello gets the nod at this price on Thursday.

This is an intriguing windup to the Tigers-Blue Jays series this afternoon at the Rogers Centre in Toronto with rookies Rick Porcello and Ricky Romero taking the mound.

Porcello is the top prospect in the Detroit organization and is making the jump to the show off just 125 innings of work at High-A. He made four starts and one relief appearance this spring for the Tigers, posting a 2.64 ERA in 13.2 innings.  At Lakeland last summer as a 19-year-old, he worked 125 innings with a 2.66 ERA and a 72/37 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Southpaw Romero is looking like a late bloomer. He's struggled since getting drafted sixth overall back in 2005 and was starting to look like a bust. But Romero finally put it together this spring – 15 Ks in 15 innings – and instead of pitching in Las Vegas, he's starting for the big club.

But Porcello, despite his inexperience, appears to be the more finished product right now and at the price, I think the Tigers' new sensation is worth a look today.

Free Pick: Tigers -103

The Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas is the site for today's MWC Tourney game, with the Colorado St. Rams as smalle favorites the play over the Air Force Falcons.

Our Wednesday college basketball selection is on the Colorado State Rams minus the points over the Air Force Falcons.

This is an intriguing Mountain West Conference Tournament matchup between two cross-state rivals, though they are both very bad teams.  Still, somewhat surprisingly, the Falcons have covered the spread by 15+ points in each of their previous two games.

Air Force lost 54-49 as a 21-point underdog to BYU, and in their game immediately before that, they lost 46-43 as an 18-point underdog to UNLV.  However, since 1990, teams off back-to-back ATS wins of 15+ points are 0-8 ATS vs. an opponent off a straight-up loss.

With Colorado State in off a 68-59 loss to San Diego State, we'll play on the Rams minus the points here.  Take CSU.

Free Pick: Colorado St. -1½ (-110)

For an opposing view, CLICK HERE.

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With an offense that is averaging just 53 points per game away from home, the Air Force Falcons should be easy prey for the Colorado State Rams on Wednesday.

No.8 seed Colorado State (9-21) and No.9 seed Air Force (9-20) go head-to-head in the opening round of the Mountain West Tournament in Las Vegas this Wednesday afternoon.

Air Force enters this tilt showcasing one of the most lethargic offenses in the entire nation and league, as is evident by averaging just 58 PPG on the season and an even worse 53 PPG average away from home. There is absolutely no cohesiveness in the attack zone, which always puts them at a disadvantage, which in turn has resulted in a 4-12 ATS conference mark this season.

The Falcons have lost all 16 of their league contests by an average of 13.5 PPG, and 14 straight games overall, and another L very much looks to be on the agenda in this spot.

Colorado State, despite of an equally ugly record, has dominated Air Force in both meetings this season, winning a 67-56 decision at home and a 71-66 marker on the road with the third win a row a very strong possibility vs a program that has never won a game in the MWC tournament.

Free Pick: Colorado State -1½ (-110)

For an opposing view, CLICK HERE.

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The combatants are decided after the Steelers and Cardinals narrowed the Super Bowl field to two on Sunday.  Now's the time to start looking at and thinking about SB prop bets!

In the world of eleven to ten, there's nothing quite like Super Bowl week. In this case, it's two weeks, as the champions of the AFC and NFC have two weeks to prepare for the Big Game. It's also one of the most creative weeks of the sports betting season. While there's only one game left on the football calendar, there are ample opportunities for betting with hundreds of creative props by oddsmakers.

For example, you can bet on the exact score of the game by each team, or who will score first. Two years ago, if you bet on Chicago return specialist Devin Hester to score the first touchdown of the game, you would have cashed a 25-to-1 prop ticket after he returned the opening kickoff 92 yards.  Just 14 seconds into a game and cashing a 25-to-1 ticket is the best way to watch a Super Bowl!

Last year you could even wager that there would be no touchdowns scored at 50-to-1. Of course, that has never happened as we head to Super Bowl 43 next week. There also has never been overtime, though you will be able to wager on, "Will there be overtime or not?" There will be Over/Under lines offered on how many touchdown passes a quarterback might throw, the first team to turn the ball over, and even the coin flip. There will be creative wagers offered such as how many receiving yards one player might get matched up against the number of points the NBA's Kobe Bryant or LeBron James might have as the Lakers/Cavaliers battle before the Super Sunday kickoff.

The Super Bowl brings out the best in the creative minds of oddsmakers. Smart bettors will search through all the props, totals and side bets offered in an attempt to find an edge and add to their bankrolls. When examining Super Bowl totals, weather is not as important an issue as in other January playoff games as Super Sunday is always played indoors or at warm weather sites. This season the game will be outdoors in Tampa, Florida, so there could be a chance of rain, like two years ago in Miami when the Colts and Bears met. Since Super Bowl X in 1976 between the Steelers and Cowboys, there have been 19 Overs and 14 Unders, with the last four going under.

Why so many Overs? One factor is that coaches with a lead are less likely to sit on the ball in the second half in a Super Bowl. If a team is up 17-0 at the half of a December game, for example, a coach might be inclined to go conservative, run the clock and avoid injuries. In the postseason, it's the final game of the year and no lead is safe. No coach wants to play super-conservative and be remembered as the guy who blew a 20-0 lead in the biggest game of his career. Since it's the last game of the season, coaches often put in trick plays and new offensive wrinkles in an attempt to maximize scoring opportunities.

Despite the excess of Overs the last 30 years, as far as reaching the big game you can't overlook the importance of defense. Heading into the conference championship games, the Steelers, Ravens and Eagles were 1, 2 and 3 in the NFL in total defense (Arizona was 19th). A year ago, the Patriots, Giants and Packers were in the Top 11 in total defense.

Last season the big story was the unbeaten record of the Patriots and their record-setting offense, but who came out ahead? The monster defense of the Giants kept the game close and was the main reason for their 17-14 upset. Who can forget six years ago when the No. 1 offense (Oakland) faced the No. 1 defense (Tampa Bay)? Oakland's great offense was a 4-point favorite, but Tampa's defense dominated in a 48-21 rout. In fact, six of the last eight Super Bowl champs have had statistically better defenses than their offenses, including the 2005 Steelers (4th in defense). Three of those champs, the 2002 Patriots, the '03 Buccaneers and the '08 Giants, were Super Bowl underdogs.

You'll be able to find creative point spread props, too. Two years ago, the total number of field goals was 3½ over +135. The Colts and Bears combined for 4 field goals as the over just made it. Three years ago Seattle RB Shaun Alexander had these over/under props: Total yards 89½, carries 21½, and longest rush 19½.  The final tallies: 95 yards, 20 carries, with the longest rush of 21 yards. Four years ago the number of passing yards by QB Tom Brady: 237½. The Under ended up being the winner, but not by much: Brady finished with 236 passing yards! Let's give oddsmakers some credit for those numbers.

Key numbers will come into play, as well, as books are petrified of getting middled. Nine years ago the Rams were a 7 to 7½-point favorite against the Titans. The Rams won by seven points, 23-16. The most famous example was in 1979, forever known in Las Vegas as "Black Sunday." The Steelers opened a 2½-point favorite over the Cowboys, were bet up to 5, then back down to 4. Books everywhere were sick when the Steelers won, 35-31, landing on the dreaded 'M' word!

Super Bowl (Total, Over/Under)

• 42 Giants 17, Patriots 14 (52, Under)
• 41 Colts 29, Bears 17 (49, Under)
• 40 Steelers 21, Seahawks 10 (48, Under)
• 39 Patriots 24, Eagles 21 (47, Under)
• 38 Patriots 32, Panthers 29 (38, Over)
• 37 Bucs 48, Raiders 21 (43, Over)
• 36 Patriots 20, Rams 17 (53, Under)
• 35 Ravens 34, Giants 7 (33, Over)
• 34 Rams 23, Titans 16 (48, Under)
• 33 Broncos 34, Falcons 19 (51, Over)
• 32 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (49, Over)
• 31 Packers 35, Patriots 21 (52, Over)
• 30 Cowboys 27, Steelers 17 (52, Under)
• 29 49ers 49, Chargers 26 (53, Over)
• 28 Cowboys 30, Bills 13 (50, Under)
• 27 Cowboys 52, Bills 17 (44, Over)
• 26 Redskins 37, Bills 24 (49, Over)
• 25 Giants 20, Bills 19 (40, Under)
• 24 49ers 55, Broncos 10 (48, Over)
• 23 49ers 20, Bengals 16 (48, Under)
• 22 Redskins 42, Broncos 10 (47, Over)
• 21 Giants 39, Broncos 20 (40, Over)
• 20 Bears 46, Patriots 10 (37, Over)
• 19 49ers 39, Dolphins 16 (53, Over)
• 18 Raiders 38, Redskins 9 (48, Under)
• 17 Redskins 27, Dolphins 17 (36, Over)
• 16 49ers 26, Bengals 21 (48, Under)
• 15 Raiders 27, Eagles 10 (37, Under)
• 14 Steelers 31, Rams 19 (36, Over)
• 13 Steelers 35, Cowboys 31 (37, Over)
• 12 Cowboys 27, Broncos 10 (39, Under)
• 11 Raiders 32, Vikings 14 (38, Over)
• 10 Steelers 21, Cowboys 17 (36, Over)
• 9 Steelers 16, Vikings 6 (33, Under)
• 8 Dolphins 24, Vikings 7 (33, Under)
• 7 Dolphins 14, Redskins 7 (33, Under)
• 6 Cowboys 24, Dolphins 3 (34, Under)
• 5 Colts 16, Cowboys 13 (36, Under)
• 4 Chiefs 23, Vikings 7 (39, Under)
• 3 Jets 16, Colts 7 (40, Under)
• 2 Packers 33, Raiders 14 (40, Over)
• 1 Packers 35, Chiefs 13 (NL, NL)

Congratulations to Jim Feist, who finished in 2nd place in the 2008 Wise Guy Champions Football Handicapping Contest. You can read more articles by Feist HERE.

Conference action is the fare for the most part now that we've hit 2009, but this weekend's slate opens Saturday with a Big 12 - Big Ten matchup in East Lansing where the Michigan State Spartans host last year's champions from Kansas.  Saturday continues with the Oklahoma Sooners traveling to face Big 12 rivals Kansas State and Sunday finds a whopper of a game in the ACC with North Carolina at Wake Forest.

So the mighty North Carolina Tar Heels are no longer No. 1 in the rankings. Losing 85-78 at home to the Boston College Eagles (+23) knocked UNC down to No. 3, leaving the Pittsburgh Panthers as your new top dogs. Can we say for certain now that the Big East has eclipsed the Atlantic Coast Conference?

Maybe not yet - as the Eagles have shown, there’s a lot more to the ACC than just North Carolina and Duke. One of the conference’s unheralded teams will take on the Tar Heels in our latest college hoops betting tripleheader.

Kansas at No. 12 Michigan State
Saturday, Jan 10, 1:00 p.m. ET, (CBS)
The defending champions from Kansas (11-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) have one more non-con game before they hit the Big 12 portion of the schedule. And it’s a big one versus the MSU Spartans (12-2 SU, 6-5 ATS).

Once again, we have an unranked team that deserves more recognition facing an opponent that is being judged on reputation and potential rather than current results. Kansas is No. 17 on the Pomeroy rankings, while Michigan State has moved up to No. 23 following a pair of tough Big Ten victories at Minnesota (-1) and Northwestern (+4½).

The Jayhawks don’t get off lightly in our judgment, though, not after losing 61-60 to UMass (no betting line) and getting rolled 84-67 at Arizona (-2½). Michigan State has the better 3-point shooting so far this year at 40.3 percent (No. 10 in Division I), while Kansas is struggling on perimeter defense, allowing opponents to hit 34.3 percent from downtown (No. 188). The Spartans should win this one at home or in any arena.

No. 6 Oklahoma at Kansas State
Saturday, Jan 10, 1:30 p.m. (ET)
We start in the Big 12, where conference play is just getting underway this weekend. The standings suggest the Sooners have had the better run of it in non-con play at 14-1 SU (5-5 ATS), with the Wildcats trailing at 11-3 SU (3-3-1 ATS). But look again at those schedules. Kansas State lost by two points each to Kentucky (-2) and Iowa (+5) at the Las Vegas Invitational, then dropped a 75-70 decision at Oregon (-2). Otherwise, the Wildcats have run the table.

Not that KSU’s other opponents were terribly good, and we certainly don’t mean to diminish Oklahoma’s victories over Purdue (-2) and Davidson (+5). But for the Sooners to be ranked No. 6 is a bit of a stretch, and their recent 0-3 ATS mini-slump (punctuated by a loss at Arkansas as 5½-point road faves) points at an overvalued team. Kansas State sits at No. 12 on the Pomeroy charts with Oklahoma at No. 20.

No. 3 North Carolina at No. 4 Wake Forest
Sunday, Jan 11, 8:00 p.m. (ET)
The Tar Heels (14-1 SU, 6-7 ATS) vented their frustrations on the College of Charleston (Southern Conference) Wednesday night, pummelling the Cougars 108-70 and cashing in as 27-point faves. That’s the biggest spread UNC has managed to cover this year. The second biggest was 18½ points, against both Kentucky and Nevada.

The betting odds for Sunday’s matchup with the Demon Deacons (13-0 SU, 5-4 ATS) are bound to be a little bit closer Ken Pomeroy had the Heels ranked sixth overall and the Deacons No. 10 after Tuesday’s games, close enough that Sunday’s matchup figures to be a coin flip on paper. However, there is a huge gulf between the schedules these two teams have played thus far. Wake Forest has fattened up on marshmallow opponents - but beware, the Deacs also have impressive upsets of Baylor (-3) and Brigham Young (-4) on their resume. BYU had won 53 straight at home before falling 94-87 to WFU.

"We say the right stuff in timeouts, everybody is in the game on the bench and I’m just seeing so much more basketball maturation," Deacons coach Dino Gaudio told ESPN’s Andy Katz after beating BYU. Pulling off the same feat against the Tar Heels would truly announce Wake’s arrival this season.

Baseball’s winter meetings officially come to a close today in Las Vegas with the two New York squads making the loudest moves so far.  Is this the first step to a Yankees, Mets World Series in 2009?

In the fashion world it’s often noted that pinstripes can have a slimming effect on a person who is, well, let’s just say a bit hefty in the middle.  However, I’m not sure that the stripes on C.C. Sabathia’s new home uni’s will be able to cover up the bulge caused by the wallet in his hip pocket after the New York Yankees backed up an armored car and unloaded a new seven year, $161 million contract for the free agent southpaw.

The slow pace of this winter’s shopping in the majors picked up the past few days with front office executives holding their annual gathering in Las Vegas, and the biggest movers and shakers have been the two clubs from New York.  Yankees GM Brian Cashman reached deep into the very deep pockets of the Steinbrenners and locked up Sabathia, the top starting pitcher on the market this offseason just when rumors had the heavy lefthander seemingly ready to sign clear across the Lower 48 with the Dodgers in Los Angeles.

Meanwhile over in Queens, Mets GM Omar Minaya addressed the club’s bullpen woes in two separate transactions, inking free agent closer Francisco Rodriguez to a three year, $37 million contract before getting in the middle of a three-team, 12-player trade that brought former Seattle closer J.J. Putz to Queens, presumably to serve as Rodriguez’ setup arm.

You trying to say Jesus Christ can’t hit a curveball?

Sabathia’s new contract is the largest ever doled out to a pitcher and naturally brought out the Yankee Haters from Boston to Southern California to spew their vitriol regarding the virtues of the most successful franchise in MLB history.  There were probably something along the lines a bazillion posts in the past 24 hours or so ranting about the Yankees overpaying for Sabathia.  Then again, if the Steinbrenners hired Jesus Christ to do some light carpentry work at their new digs along 161st Street, somebody somewhere would say the Yankees overpaid.

The Yankees aren’t done either according to rumors.  Jerry Crasnick over at ESPN reports the Bronx Bombers have upped their offer to former Florida and Toronto hurler to include a guaranteed fifth year, and might also be in the running for Ben Sheets who was a teammate of Sabathia’s in Milwaukee the second half of last season.  And the raid on the Brewers’ roster might not end there as ESPN is also reporting New York Is trying to work out a deal with the Brew Crew that would send outfielder Melky Cabrera to Milwaukee in return for outfielder Mike Cameron.

Atlanta is also believed to still be on Burnett’s radar though the Braves are apparently balking at adding a fifth, guaranteed year to their offer.

Minaya and the Mets had little choice but to upgrade the bullpen after a season that saw their relievers rank 13th in the NL in relief ERA.  Once closer Billy Wagner went down with elbow trouble in August, the team watched their playoff hopes slip away for a second consecutive season.  New York relievers blew 29 saves overall on the season as managers Willie Randolph and Jerry Manuel shuffled in one reliever after another looking for someone, anyone to take over the closing job.

Is there a K-Rod vs. A-Rod	meeting ahead in '09 Series?

Enter K-Rod and J.J. to save the day.  Rodriguez recorded a major league record 62 saves for the Angels in 2008, appearing in a career high 76 games.  Putz, who spent part of last season on Seattle’s DL with elbow trouble, will now set K-Rod up and give the Mets’ the strongest back end of a bullpen in the NL if not the majors entering next season…that is the strongest on paper and as long as everyone stays healthy.

In the three-team trade between the Mets, Mariners and Indians, New York sent righthander Aaron Heilman, outfielder Endy Chavez and four minor leaguers to Seattle with the Mariners in turn sending outfielder Jeremy Reed and righthander Sean Green back to New York.  The Mariners also received outfielder Franklin Gutierrez from Cleveland while the Indians got righthander Joe Smith from the Mets and minor league infielder Luis Valbuena from Seattle.  Got all that?

Minaya noted input from Mets fans after the signing of Rodriguez and trade for Putz.

"All I kept hearing on the streets in New York, if you go get bagels in the morning, it was, 'Please, address the bullpen.' Well, to you, Mets fans, we've addressed the bullpen."

With Sabathia now off the market it leaves two big free agent hitters left to decide where they are going.  First baseman Mark Teixeira has reportedly received a monster offer from the Washington Nationals of all teams.  Other rumors have Tex going to Boston.

And then there’s Manny Ramirez who is looking for A-Rod money on a four-year deal.  Considering how things usually work out for the flaky outfielder, he’ll probably get it.  After all, getting his way is part of Manny being Manny.

Read more from the Bee Hive Archive here.

The MGM Grand in Las Vegas makes a fitting site for UFC^® 92 given the grand card lined up.  Forrest Griffin versus Rashad Evans headlines the final bouts of 2008.

I’m starting to feel a little bit like Jim Carrey’s character in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.  In case you haven’t seen it, the plot revolves around Carrey desperately struggling to retain his pleasant memories of his ex-girlfriend, as a scientific procedure eradicates them from his mind.

In my case it is the memory of winning wagers, not Kate Winslet, that is slipping away.  Even the UFC, which is usually my bread and butter, betrayed me a couple of weeks ago.  Even so, I couldn’t be happier for a chance at some MMA redemption on Saturday evening. UFC 92 looks to be the best card of the year.  Hopefully I can end 2008 on a good note.

Forrest Griffin -130
Rashad Evans +110

Wake up, Chuck

The two very first Ultimate Fighter champs have come a long way, as they are now headlining the most dynamic card of the year.  I am a huge fan of both men as I have watched every one of their professional fights.  I will be sad for whoever loses, but it’s kind like when two of your best friends fight each other.  Sure, it makes you feel a little bit uncomfortable, but not enough to stop you from enjoying a good show. 

Griffin (16-4-0) can never be counted out. While not known for being exceptionally great at any one thing in particular, Forrest just competes and wins. I believe that the played out term is that he has “heart.”  Personally, I think it’s his magical ears.  Either way, Griffin always puts on a good show, and this fight will be no different.

Rashad “Sugar” Evans (17-0-1) comes in fresh off his nasty K.O. of Chuck Liddell.  Poor Chuck might still be waiting for Prince Charming to awaken him with a kiss.  It was that brutal.

Since his TUF days, Evans has shed the showboating cockiness that cast him as a bit of a pariah, and is now gaining a reputation as a deadly striker.  All he has done in his career is go undefeated, with a questionable draw on his record to Tito Ortiz that was attributed solely to poor judging.  The judges probably won’t come into play tonight.

I’m taking Evans at +110, and I’m also taking him to win inside the five rounds at +232.  I will be sad to see Griffin get K.O.’d, and then I’ll check my new balance and forget it ever happened.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira -360
Frank Mir +300

Two out of three ain't bad

Anyone who watched these two coaches on the reality show this year witnessed two opposite ends of the spectrum as far as personality goes.  On one side you had Big Nog (31-4-1), a personable giant who truly loved his kids.  Even through his broken English, his genuine sincerity shone through.  Perhaps that attributed to the fact that both of the winners emerged from camp. 

On the other side was Frank Mir (11-3-0).  He has always come across as one of the biggest jerks in the UFC, and being on the show solidified those beliefs.  He possesses zero redeemable qualities, and unlike Forrest, it will be fun rooting for him to get beatdown.

Nogueira has one of the few cool nicknames in the UFC: Minotauro.  On the UFC’s website, it asks fighters what job they had before they became a fighter.  Minotauro says that he was a Jiu-Jitsu instructor.  Mir worked the front desk for Station Casinos.  That’s all you need to know.  Nogueira for the victory.

Wanderlei Silva  -110
Quinton Jackson  -110
The third high-profile fight of the night finds no shortage of bad blood. Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva (32-8-1) and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (28-7-0) met twice before in Pride.  Silva took both fights via devastating TKO’s.  He really does not like Rampage.

"I want to kill this guy; I don't like him," Silva said of Jackson. "This is really no promotion. I don't talk with him. I don't like him; he knows this."

There will be blood

That quote alone should have you calling your cable company to order this pay-per-view.  Wowie zowie!  I’m a believer and I’ll be betting Silva.  He is one of the hardest hitters in the game, as evidenced in his loss to Liddell a year ago.  He has heavy hands and every connection looks like it hurts.

Fans have to still be wondering if Rampage is mentally stable.  Shortly after his loss to Griffin in July, he went completely nuts and found himself involved in a police chase that ended with his arrest on a felony charge of evading law enforcement, misdemeanor hit-and-run, and reckless driving.

I give props to Dana White and the UFC who were there to back their embattled star immediately.  What will he do once he loses to Silva?  Hijack a plane?  Pick up a tranny?  The possibilities are endless.  I can’t wait!

CB Dollaway -165
Mike Massenzio +135
I honestly don’t know much about Massenzio (11-2-0) except that he beat Drew McFedries a few months ago and that he calls himself “The Master of Disaster.”  Ordinarily, that wouldn’t be an impressive enough resume to lay some money on.  But then there is CB Dollaway (8-2-0).  Suddenly, Massenzio sounds like a great opportunity to make some cash on a decent dog.

Dolloway has a permanent top lip snarl he sports that makes his opponents and viewers alike want to smack him around.  Then there was his arm lock tapout vs. Amir Sadollah where he cried bloody murder that he didn’t tap, when replays clearly showed him tapping.

I don’t like this guy, and just like with Nate Diaz, I’ll be betting against him on pure principal for as long as he is fighting.  Me and Massenzio rollin’ in my Benz-o.

Cheick Kongo -350
Mostapha Al-Turk +260

Your friendly neighborhood Cheick Kongo

Speaking of tapping out of arm bars, the last time we saw a Muslim in the Octagon, Razzak Al-Hassan refused to tap out of a brutal situation, and his elbow went POP.  I learned that from then on, I would always take into consideration that Muslims would prefer to go out with honor than to tap out to an infidel referee.  Duly noted.

That will not be enough to take Mr. Al-Turk (6-3-0).  I do find it ironic though, that he lists his hero as Spiderman, as he is going up against the fighter with the most super hero-esque body.  With his exotic name and massive 6’4" frame, Kongo (22-4-1) really should be out rounding up evil villains.  Until that day, there is no way he loses this stepping stone fight.

So there you have it.  Man I really need to have at least a 4-1 day here.  Bread needs a new pair of shoes.  Actually, I’d even settle for some used ones.  I just need some shoes!

To donate to Bread's shoe fund, send cash to Zapatas del Pan, 347 West Shore Plaza, Tampa, FL, 33609.  To read more of his articles, click here.

Live from the fabulous Palms in Las Vegas, it's the finale of UFC Season 8 on the heels of Wednesday's bloodbath at Fight for the Troops.  Bread's got your winners here.

The last time that I wrote about the UFC, which just happened to be earlier this week, my picks went 4-0.  I feel pretty strongly about keeping that streak alive for ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ live finale on Spike TV tonight.

By the way, if you missed Wednesday’s Fight for the Troops event, you escaped one of the most brutal nights of MMA ever.  To recap quickly, Josh Koscheck knocked out Yoshida twice in a five second span, Razak Al-Hassan didn’t tap and his arm went the wrong way, Ben Saunders almost murdered a guy with non-stop knees to the head, and poor Corey Hill’s shin snapped in half.

This pretty much sums up the last event’s violence

The fights were good, but the injuries were almost too much for even the most rabid fan to stomach.  Then I remembered that I just went 4-0 and everything was OK in Bread’s world.

That brings us to The Ultimate Fighter’s eighth season’s finale.  As usual I watched every single episode.  This was not the most entertaining season by a long shot, but it could produce three or four household names for the UFC.  That’s not bad considering that the last four installments have created maybe four or five recognizable fighters.

On to some winning picks!  All lines posted are from 5dimes.

Phillipe Nover  -375
Efrain Escudero +313

I will always remember Nover (6-0-1) for three things:  Passing out when he first earned his way into the house, eating some Filipino delicacy that involved cooking a nearly hatched bird inside its shell, and completely dominating anyone he faced en route to the finals.

It is safe to say that Nover’s career as a nurse has come to an end as there is a bright future for him in MMA.  I personally find it magical that he can snap your arm, and then put it in a sling for you.  Good guy.

Nover is a huge favorite over Escudero (11-0-0), and rightfully so.  He looks like the guy to beat coming out of the lightweight division.  Efrain’s legacy on the show was his rivalry with dirtbag Junie Browning.  To earn his way into the finals, he had to beat him, and he handled the overhyped head case with ease.  Thank God.  The path to the UFC contract just got about a million times tougher facing Nover.

I’m looking forward to this matchup more than any other on the card, and I’m taking Efrain for the money.  I know Nover is talented.  Dana White has even referenced him as his next Anderson Silva.  That’s pretty heavy stuff.  But in Escudero I have seen tons of potential.  He handled some tumultuous situations with poise, and looked pretty savvy himself in the octagon.  Nover will become a household name win or lose tonight.  I think Escudero has a decent chance to pull of this upset and will be looking to cash on those nice odds.

Vinny Magalhaes is good

Vinicius Magalhaes -180
Ryan Bader +158

I originally predicted that Vinny Magalhaes (3-2-1) would be a -550 favorite.  I was wrong.  If you were on the ball, he actually started out as a +200 dog.  His odds have been catapulting, and I expect by fight time, they may be closer to -300.  We’ll see.

Either way, I’m all over this world class jiu-jitsu star waiting to happen.  My reasoning has just as much to do with Vinny, who seems to show off during his fights with his vast tactical array of moves, as it does with his opponent, Ryan Bader.

Bader (8-0-0) is Dana White’s nightmare.  He is a pure wrestler with little room for improvement on other parts of his game.  In his semifinal victory over Eliot Marshall, he wrestled his opponent to the ground and kept him pinned for almost the entire three rounds.  Gee, that’s great if you’re fighting Hulk Hogan, but boring is not what got the UFC where it is today.

Throw in the fact that this clown is nicknamed “Darth” (Get it?  Darth Bader?  Get it?!?!), and there is no way I’m betting against Vinny here.  This might be the easiest fight I’ve ever seen.  Have at it.

Full Pink Hamster fashion

Wilson Gouveia  -125
Jason MacDonald  +105

One of two fights on the card with nothing to do with the reality show.  And wouldn’t you know it, they gave me the ultimate Pink Hamster!  Jason MacDonald!  MacDonald (22-10-0) has been busting out the fights, as this will be his fourth battle of 2008.  That equals four times that he has been lit up like a giant pink Christmas tree.  What a great year. 

I’m not really sure why Gouveia (11-5-0) is getting the slight edge here.  MacDonald has the much more impressive resume, losing to Rich Franklin, Yushin Okami and Demian Maia.  He has beaten established fighters Ed Herman, Chris Leben and Jason Lambert.  Gouveia did beat the guy who beat up Kimbo Slice though.  Whoop dee doo.  I will be taking MacDonald to represent the Pink Hamster Army.

Junie Browning -340
Dave Kaplan +280

Do you know what I love about UFC ring announcer Bruce Buffer the most?  Not his magical hair or his sneak attack intros.  It’s his ability to get me pumped up for the most asinine fight in the history of mankind.  Buffer could get me excited for Dustin Diamond vs. Willie Bee.  I don’t care.  With that being said, it would be really cool if Buffer could intro this fight like this:

Bruce Buffer is not impressed

“Introducing…in this cor-nerr, (sudden Buffer misdirection) we have Junie Browning (2-1-0), the biggest dirt bag in the history of the YOO EFF SEE-YAH.  He should be in prison for his bottle throwing antics.  He has no cardio, but more importantly, he has no heart.  He’s all talk and alcohol fumes.  I don’t know why he’s still here, but here he is…JUNIE BROWNING-AHHH!!

“And in this cor-nerr, (Buffer misdirection) we have Dave Kaplan (3-1-0).  He’s not as hated, but hated all the same.  The only man who has never been knocked out, even though we all saw it happen, who just happens to be the greatest fighter of all time in his own mind…DAVE!!  KAPLAN-AAAHHHH!!”

That would make me very happy.  Browning is a punk.  I don’t know how he remained on the show after his numerous escapades, but here he is.  Nothing that he ever did on the show impressed me.  I don’t care that he’s been training with Xtreme Couture.  I see this as a 50-50 chance fight.  And for that very reason I’ll be on Kaplan at +280.  Keep your kids away from the TV in fear that they might catch something from Junie.

John Polakowski -125
Rolando Delgado +105

Buried way at the bottom of the undercard you will find this nugget.  Polakowski (2-1-0) is up against Delgado (7-3-1).  This fight will generate the least interest of the lot, no doubt.  But I think that Polakowski is a gem at these odds.

Not the fight of the night ... unless you’re gambling on it.

First of all, the comedy factor alone will be reason enough to hope that this one somehow gets aired.  Polakowski was a serial hugger on the show.  Nobody was safe.  At times it looked like coach Frank Mir was going to snap from his man-hug homophobia taking him over.  Oh, this serial hugger’s nickname is “Buckets of Blood.”  Good stuff.

Delgado’s nickname is “The Crazy Cuban,” even though this guy looks about as Latin as Conan O’Brien.  Unreal.

Delgado was the worst fighter on the show.  He will be telling his grandkids one day about how he went a full three rounds with an out of breath Junie Browning.  It was just pitiful.  Polakowski was the second-worst fighter on the show, but that still ranks miles ahead of Delgado’s game.  He can even claim some fights in the WEC.  Polakowski will win this fight, and hug everyone in Las Vegas.  I hope Mir is nowhere to be found.

Bread sells bicycle spokes on Manihiki, one of the northern bumps of sand in the Cook Islands where he lives with his wife Robyn and three children: Balut, Rinchachi and Norman.  You can get more of your somewhat daily Bread here.

The Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas is the site for tonight's big WEC 37 match between Miguel Torres and Manny Tapia.  Make sure to see it with someone you love.

I’m in a little bit of disarray this week, so you’ll have to forgive me.  I’m coming off of my first losing week in awhile, I ate at IHOP on Thanksgiving, and I’m getting my wisdom teeth pulled on Friday.  The IHOP was actually good, the games were not, and this weekend will certainly be miserable when they rip the ivory from my mouth like a poached elephant.  Woe is me.

I will have to make the best out of the next couple of days, and tonight’s World Extreme Cagefighting 37 event on the Versus network will be a good start.  The WEC does not boast the fan base of the UFC, but it specializes more in the little guys.  Everyone loves to see the giants slug away at each other, but bantam and feather weight matches can be just as entertaining.  If you are not a believer, tune in just to see Miguel Angel Torres tonight.  He will convert you to the light side.

Watch Miguel Torres

Torres (34-1-0) is a monstrous favorite over Manny Tapia (10-0-1), showing up at -575 at Bodog.  5dimes has him even higher at -650, just in case you want to try your luck on a Tapia longshot, although I wouldn’t recommend it.  More books should have odds listed later in the day, but he will be a heavy favorite on all of them.  Unless you have a large roll to play with, or putting him in some parlays (like me), this probably won’t even be worth wagering on for many people.

But you should at least do yourself the favor of checking Torres out.  The WEC’s popularity is growing, and smaller fighters from all over the globe are making their way to the organization.  If you enjoy a break from the battling behemoths once in awhile, the WEC will be sure to please.

Sherdog’s list for MMA’s top pound for pound fighters possesses many household names.  Right smack-dab in the middle of the superstars sits Torres.

1. Anderson Silva
2. Georges St. Pierre
3. Fedor Emelianenko
4. B.J. Penn
5. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
6. Miguel Torres
7. Forrest Griffin
8. Quinton Jackson
9. Thiago Alves
10. Eddie Alvarez

That’s a lot of respect for a bantam weight to get that kind of recognition amongst all that star power.  Back in June at WEC 34, Torres defeated Japanese fighter Yoshiro Maeda.  The match was one of the most entertaining bouts I’ve ever witnessed.  At times it would appear as the two foes were breakdancing around the mat.  No submission attempt, nor escape, remained unused in either fighter’s arsenal.  In his third round TKO, Torres was pushed farther than anyone had taken him in recent memory.  His resiliency was impressive as Maeda looked to be taking control of the fight many times.

Gabby Johnson, orator of authentic frontier gibberish

Another fight on the card to keep an eye on will be Brian Bowles vs. Will Ribeiro.  It is rumored that the victor here will be Torres’ next opponent.  Bowles is -150 at Bodog.  I know nothing about either fighter, but I’ll play something small on one of them.  I’ll use the opportunity more to study for the future fight.

The next time you hear from me, I will probably be sedated on Vicodin and soup.  I suspect that my gibberish would make the drunken frontiersman from ‘Blazing Saddles’ proud.  Hopefully I don’t have my best gambling day ever, and per the laws of superstition, become a compulsive pill popper.  I have enough vices.  One more would just be tacky.

 

Read more Bread

Milwaukee’s Ben Sheets is part of the free agent list this offseason, but the big righthander will probably have to wait his turn behind the likes of Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia and Manny Ramirez.

It’s been a slow offseason so far in the majors as this winter’s free agent crop is taking their sweet time inking new contracts.  Offers have reportedly been made to some of the top names in the group, but so far just two free agents have followed through and found a home for the 2009 season and beyond.

A few trades have gone down, along with some player options for 2009 being picked up to keep baseball from simply falling off the sports pages altogether.  Boston ponied up the $4 million to keep Tim Wakefield and his knuckleball off the open market, along with the Red Sox dealing outfielder Coco Crisp to the Royals for reliever Ramon Ramirez.  Boston has also reportedly offered a one-year deal to catcher Jason Varitek, though the Red Sox captain’s agent denies that to be the case.

The Brewers exercised their $10 million option on center fielder Mike Cameron, surprising both me and Cameron after he hit just .243 with 142 whiffs in 120 games for Milwaukee this past season.

"I didn't think my option would get picked up," Cameron said. "This was a surprise, to be honest with you."

The New York Mets shelled out the $12 million necessary to pick up Carlos Delgado’s option after the first baseman cracked 38 homers and drove in 115 runs in 2008, good enough to finish ninth in the NL MVP voting.  And the San Diego Padres opted to keep outfielder Brian Giles for $9 million next season.  Giles batted .306 for the Pads this season, rapping 40 doubles and posting a .398 OB%.

Both free agents to sign up to now have been pitchers as Jeremy Affeldt skips from Cincinnati to San Francisco with a two-year, $8 million deal for the Giants and Ryan Dempster opted to stay at home in Chicago with a new four-year, $52 million contract.  Affeldt was rated the No. 15 FA on ESPN’s chart with Dempster at No. 8.

Activity on the free agent front should pick up in the next couple of weeks in advance of and during the Winter Meetings that are slated for Dec 8-11 in Las Vegas.  MLB clubs have until Monday (Dec 1) to offer free agents arbitration in order to be eligible for compensation if those players bolt to new clubs.  Players then have until Dec 7 to accept the arbitration offers from their former clubs.

This winter’s Big 3 – Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia and Manny Ramirez – remain up for grabs with most of the rumors so far swirling around the New York Yankees being in the mix to sign one or more of that trio.  The New York Times reported about two weeks ago that the Yankees had offered a six-year, $140 million deal to Sabathia.  New York is apparently focusing on signing two big name pitchers this winter, with A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe on their radar along with Sabathia.

The Yankees made a deal to get 1B-OF Nick Swisher from the White Sox, with Chicago also sending pitcher Kaneoka Teixeria to New York for pitchers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nuñez along with infielder Wilson Betemit.

The two LA teams appear to be the frontrunners to keep Mark Teixeira and Manny Ramirez, both of whom arrived in the Angels’ and Dodgers’ dugouts respectively this past summer.

And off his MLB record 62 saves this past season for the Angels, Francisco Rodriguez’s agent said he will begin shopping his client at the winter meetings in a week.  Paul Kinzer, K-Rod’s representative, said he plans to meet with the Mets execs in Las Vegas  as the Mets are desperate for a new closer to take the place of Billy Wagner who will miss most if not all of the 2009 season following Tommy John surgery on his left elbow.  New York owes Wagner $10.5 million for 2009 and holds an $8 million option for 2010.

Next up on the tote board
Despite the rosters still being up in the air for the 16 participants in the 2009 World Baseball Classic, futures are already up at a few shops including The Greek where the following numbers are posted:

• USA      +150
• Dominican Republic      +175
• Japan      +800
• Cuba      +1000
• Venezuela      +1000
• Korea      +1500
• Puerto Rico      +1500
• Mexico      +1800
• Panama      +2000
• Canada      +2500
• Chinese Taipei      +4000
• Italy      +8000
• Netherlands      +10000
• South Africa      +12500
• Australia      +15000
• China      +20000

A few players have committed such as Ichiro Suzuki and Daisuke Matsuzaka for Japan.  Don’t look for Yankees outfielder Hideki Matsui to join them however as he recovers from surgery.  One other note about the team from Japan is the Chunichi Dragons have already announced they will not allow their players to play in the event after some of their stars struggled following the recent Olympics in Beijing.

Jair Jurrjens, Rick Vanden Hurk, and Andruw Jones are three who should be found wearing a Netherlands jersey next March when the WBC opens play.

Once the rosters get finalized, more futures should start to appear, including odds for winning the four pools.  The 16 teams will start out playing in the following brackets:

• Pool A - China, Chinese Taipei, Japan and Korea, from Mar 5-10 in Tokyo.
• Pool B - Australia, Cuba, Mexico and South Africa, from March 8-12 in Mexico City.
• Pool C - Canada, Italy, the U.S. and Venezuela, from March 8-12 in Toronto.
• Pool D - Dominican Republic, the Netherlands, Panama and Puerto Rico, from March 7-11 in Puerto Rico.

The 96th Grey Cup kicks off 6:00 p.m. (ET) Sunday in Montreal with the Alouettes taking on the Calgary Stampeders who won both meetings during the regular season.

The 96th edition of the CFL Grey Cup will be hosted in Montreal, Quebec, Canada and the betting line on the game is Montreal PK vs. Calgary (57.0).

The Montreal Alouettes (12-7) will represent the East Division, while the Calgary Stampeders (14-5) will represent the West Division. The Alouettes won 36-26 in the East Division final last weekend, as they beat the Edmonton Eskimos who won against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the semi-finals the week prior.

In the West Division finals, the Stampeders outlasted the BC Lions 22-18 as a -5½ point home favorite, and the Lions beat the Saskatchewan Roughriders 33-12 at Mosaaic Stadium in the Western semi-finals.

Both the Alouettes and Stampeders finished first in their division this season and CFL fans are getting a marquee final this Sunday at Olympic Stadium, home of the 1976 Olympics.

The Montreal Alouettes are led by former Utah State Aggies QB Anthony Calvillo who was also the starting QB of the now defunct CFL team Las Vegas Posse. Calvillo’s favorite receiver is Ben Cahoon who went to BYU and is an 8-time all star receiver in the CFL. The Stamps are led QB Henri Burris who had a cup of coffee in the NFL with the Packers and Bears and played his college ball with Temple University and finished with 20 passing records at that university. It should be noted; Burris started his pro career in the CFL before attending the Bears in the NFL. As for the Stampeders running game, they have a work horse in Jofferey Reynolds at the tail back position and Burris has great receivers to choose from when he’s glancing down the field.

The Stampeders are probably the better balanced team offensively and defensively, as the Stamps average 32.47 points per game, while allowing 23.05 points per game. However, Montreal is no doubt the most explosive team offensively in the CFL, as they’ve scored 30 or more points in 16 out of 19 games this season and it could have been 17 out of 19 games if they would have played their regulars in their season finale vs. Edmonton.

The Stamps enter this game with the momentum and it reflects in the opening numbers as the bookmakers have made this game a Pick 'Em, and considering this is like a home game for Montreal, it makes it a head scratcher from a betting perspective.

Let’s review; the Stampeders have won five in a row, nine out of their last 10 games and they’ve covered 80% of their last 10 games. Here’s an interesting number: Had the bookmaker made the Alouettes a Grey Cup Favorite, the Stamps are 6-0 SU and ATS as an underdog this season, so monitor this line throughout the week. However, if the money starts coming in on Calgary and the Stamps start getting some favorite love, the Als are 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS this season.

Montreal has not done well in the Grey Cup Final the last eight years as they’ve been involved in five Grey Cup games since 2000 but have only won the big game once, 34-22 vs. the Eskimos in Edmonton in 2002. The Stampeders on the other hand have made the big dance three times since 1996 and have won the Grey Cup two out of the three times. In fact, there only loss was in 1999 as a -5½ point favorite vs. Hamilton; the Tiger Cats won the game 32-21 in a game played at BC Place.

The Stampeders own the season series, winning both games vs. Montreal. In the first meeting on July 10 (Week 3), the Alouettes were a -4½ point home favorites and the game finished 23-19 for the Stamps with the O/U on the game 55 easily under the posted total. In the rematch the Alouettes were a +3 point road underdogs in Week 12 and fell 41-30 with the Over 58½ on that game cashing.

The Alouettes are 6-4 (SU and ATS) in their last 10 overall head to head meetings with the Calgary Stampeders and the OVER is 7-3-0 in those 10 meetings.

It wasn't all that long ago that the puckline was the industry's betting standard, but the more user-friendly moneyline has taken over at NHL betting windows from Las Vegas to the Caribbean.

The Detroit Red Wings are just awful this year: 4-13.

If you’re betting the puckline, you know what we mean. The defending Stanley Cup champions are actually 12-2-3 to start the 2008-09 NHL season, but that hot start only benefits Red Wings supporters who play the moneyline. They’ve earned 2.98 units thus far, while puckline bettors are 8.42 units in the red.

The blade cuts both ways. The Ottawa Senators are having trouble making ends meet at 6-9-3, leaving moneyline supporters 9.73 units out of pocket. But if those bettors had taken the Sens on the puckline instead, they’d be up 0.9 units on a record of 9-9.

If you’re a little fuzzy on the mechanics of the puckline, it’s the same concept as the runline in baseball. The favorite in the matchup is given a spread of -1½ goals; in order to pay out, the favorite must win by at least two goals, while the underdog (+1½) can lose by a goal and still cash in.

Here’s how it looks for Thursday’s matchup between the Boston Bruins and the Buffalo Sabres:

• Bruins -1.5, +175
• Sabres +1.5, -250

The Sabres are +110 home dogs against the moneyline, but they get really chalky when spotted a goal and a half. Buffalo is only 7-10 against the puckline for a deficit of 2.45 units, while Boston is on top of the money list at 13.06 units on a record of 14-4 against the puckline (often referred to as ATS for brevity’s sake).

Hockey games are frequently decided by a single goal, so deciding between the puckline and the moneyline is frequently the difference between getting paid or not. The Bruins are red-hot to start the season at 11-3-4; they have the second best goal differential in the league at 0.94 per game (remember, that includes their losses), so the B’s have been covering a lot of spreads. The Sabres are 9-5-3 with a goal differential of 0.18 – which would be fine if they were underdogs all the time, but Buffalo was favored in 11 of its 17 contests.

Pucklines were the industry standard for the NHL earlier in the decade, but the moneyline is more user-friendly for the books and the customers. As a sharp bettor, you want access to both types of betting odds and the opportunity to choose wisely – especially if you happen to be a fan of the Red Wings or Senators.

Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche
Thursday, Nov 20, 9:00 p.m. (ET)
This is a rematch of Tuesday’s 4-1 Flames victory at the Saddledome; Calgary was -150 on the moneyline, and thanks to a pair of goals in the final minute, the home team also cashed in against the puckline. Calgary remains one of the worst bets in the league so far at 6-13 ATS (-7.98 units), while Colorado isn’t much better at 7-10 ATS (-5.81 units).

Questionable goaltending has been a problem for both teams. Calgary’s Miikka Kiprusoff (.885 save percentage) is having his worst season as a starter, losing four of his previous five starts before Tuesday, including an ugly 6-0 final in Vancouver. But Kiprusoff has had Colorado’s number this year, winning three out of three by a combined score of 12-5.

Peter Budaj (.898 SV%) is under the microscope at the other end of the ice, but the fourth-year netminder from Slovakia did make 47 of 50 saves against Calgary on Tuesday – the other goal was an empty-netter. That’s four strong starts in a row for Budaj; Colorado won the other three, two of those via shootout.

Each team has a goal differential of -7 on the season, but the Flames have turned that into a 10-8-1 record, while the Avalanche are in the Northwest Division basement at 8-9, albeit with two games in hand on Calgary. Joe Sakic (back) missed Tuesday’s game as he stayed in Colorado; he’s expected to return Thursday after sitting out four of the Avs’ last five.

Live from Las Vegas' MGM Grand, it's Pink Hamster Night...uh, check that.  Live from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, it's UFC 91 featuring Brock Lesnar vs. Roundy Couture.

Is it just me, or is there a UFC main event every couple weeks or so?  On Saturday night we will be up to UFC 91.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not tiring of it whatsoever.  I’m also a fan of baseball with their one trillion game season.  What will turn me off though is the rising price of the pay-per-views.  I’ve got my eye on you Dana White.  Watch your step son.

Put down the battle-axe, Randy

Brock Lesnar (-140) vs. Randy Couture (+120)
Man this one is harder than my liver on the weekends.  As of right now I have no clue who I am taking.  Let’s see if I can talk myself into somebody.

Lesnar does not have a nickname, but I suggest he goes with “Mass.”  The guy is just a beast.  At an imposing 6-3, 265 lbs, he outweighs his opponent by 45 lbs.  As evidenced in his unanimous decision win over Heath Herring, Lesnar can just impose his mass upon you.  It doesn’t make for an exciting fight, but if he decides to fat out on top of you, you’re probably not going anywhere.  Of course that’s if he doesn’t connect right away and send you into the fifth row seats.  For the record, Heath Ledger probably would’ve put up more of a fight than Heath Herring did.  And yes, I mean the current day version of Ledger.  What a horrible match.

At 45 years, Couture is 14 years Lesnar’s elder.  What he lacks in youth he absolutely gains in experience over his newbie opponent.  Many many moons ago, Randy himself was an experienced wrestler breaking into the world of MMA.  If he can avoid a face-breaking swing, he will know Lesnar’s weaknesses and break him down.

Besides strength and youth, you can add rustiness to Couture’s suspect list.  This is his first fight back from his sudden retirement which last saw him in the octagon in August of 07.  Randy used that time to film 'The Scorpion King 2.'  He played a character named Sargon and had magical cauliflower ears.  I won’t be seeing that movie.

After taking all things into account, I’m going with Couture.  You just don’t bet against a champion.  I think he will find a weakness in Lesnar’s game as Mir did and finish the fight.  5dimes is also offering odds on the fight going five complete rounds.  No way that this happens.  The odds are a little steep though (-495).  Just for fun I’ll be doing Couture to win in the first round at +620, as well as to win the fight straight-up.  See that?  I went from having no clue to taking Couture in the first round.  I’m my own financial advisor.

Check out my crystal ball

Kenny Florian (-180) vs. Joe Stevenson (+158)
Joe Stevenson was the winner of 'The Ultimate Fighter Season 2.'  As I remember him though, he was a big loser.  Don’t get me wrong, the kid can fight and belongs in the UFC.

But does anyone else remember his, how should I say this? There is a distasteful term for when a man has female-like breasts or nipples.  I think you follow me.  I remember Joe “Daddy”s nipples looked like they were trying to escape.  It was weird!

Florian is the ultimate Boston tough guy.  A very unassuming figure who will absolutely destroy you.  He really should’ve had a role in ‘Gone Baby Gone’.  This fight will go to the ground, and whether Florian is on top or bottom, he will proceed to open Stevenson up with his terrifying elbows.  I don’t think red is really Stevenson’s color.  I’ve missed the boat on Florian too many times.  Not tonight.

Are you serious, Justin McCully?

Gabriel Gonzaga (-400) vs. Josh Hendricks (+325)
The last guy that Randy Couture wasn’t supposed to beat was Gabriel Gonzaga.  That didn’t work out so well for Gabriel.  Since then, he has lost to Fabricio Werdum and beaten Justin McCully.  I’m going to post a picture of McCully aka The Insane 1.  If nothing else I write makes you laugh, I hope that this clown’s picture, or nickname, puts a smile on your face.

Josh Hendricks finds himself in his first UFC fight.  That’s not what scares me.  He lists his hero as his Grandfather Hendricks.  I just hope he’s not alive to watch Josh get smacked around like an unexpected trick-or-treater.  Gonzaga to win easily.

 

Demian Maia (-235) vs. Nate Quarry (+195)
You didn’t really think that I would go a whole article without mentioning the UFC pink hamster phenomenon did you??  Or as another friend has referred to them this week as the Ginger Kids!

I love you Pink Hamster

Demeian Maia has choked out three straight opponents.  The last two were Ed Herman and pink hamster extraordinaire Jason MacDonald.  Maia is attempting to single-handedly put an end to the phenomenon. 

Nate Quarry is not a pink hamster at all, just a filler for the up and coming Brazilian.  Add another choke out to Maia’s resume.  I’m due for a 4-0 night.  I will drink plenty of lucky beers help my chances.

 

.

Sylvester Croom's defense will turn the trick this afternoon in Starkville and finally end Vanderbilt's fine run.  Take the points and Mississippi State vs the Commodores.

With a spotless 5-0 SU record and shiny No. 13 ranking, Vanderbilt makes the voyage to Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field in search of their sixth victory of the season. I sure hope the Commodores enjoyed their recent success because they won’t leave Starkville with a “W” in their pocket. MSU head coach Sylvester Croom and the Bulldogs will be revved up and ready to pull of this upset. My system book agrees.

At Game 6 of the regular season or later, the pressure for undefeated road favorites starts to mount. Since 1980, college teams in this specific set are a soft 162-211 ATS. There are a couple of tighteners to this system that makes things worse and Vanderbilt applies to one of them. If our undefeated Game 6 or later road favorite enters off an underdog win, this situation crashes to a wallet-breaking 5-15 ATS including 1-12 ATS provided our piece of chalk is laying -14½ or less! The Commodores apply to all three sets.

Mississippi State can play defense and they’ll be able to keep Vandy’s offense in check. The Bulldogs are one of the nation’s best against the pass (ranked 11th) allowing just 153.4 yards per game. Also, MSU has recorded an average of 6.6 tackles-for-loss each game and that places State 27th in the nation in that defensive category.

Since the 1983 season, Vanderbilt has been installed a conference road favorite six times and has produced a stiff 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS record. Respect is certainly due the Commodores and the job they’ve done this season. However, conference road favorites that carry a winning record (greater than .500) have dropped 54 of their last 86 games to the Las Vegas number provided they just won straight up as a conference home dog in their last game.

Grab all the points you can get here men. Take Mississippi State!

Free Pick: Mississippi St. +2½ (-105)

The Big Ten is taking a beating in the media, and the lashings won't let up here for a conference that is just 13-17-1 against the numbers and still reeling from the whipping the Ohio State Buckeyes suffered at USC a couple of weeks back.  But now that the non-conference portion of the schedule is up, we should start to see some cream rise to the top while the dregs begin to settle on the bottom.

The Big Ten Conference sucks.

There, I said it. And the proof is right there in the numbers: As we mentioned in our Week 4 recap, the Big Ten went 3-5 ATS on the betting odds to fall to 13-17-1 ATS on the season. Michigan lost to Miami-Ohio. Indiana was beaten up by Ball State. But the signature defeat for the Big Ten was the 35-3 shellacking Ohio State suffered at the hands of USC. It hangs over the conference like a dark cloud ready to dump acid rain on the Midwest.

That doesn’t mean every team in the Big Ten sucks. And now that the non-con schedule is mostly out of the way, we’re going to find out in pretty short order who rules and who drools. Handicappers will be looking very closely at the quality of opposition the Big Ten clubs have faced up to this point. For this article, I will refer to the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) and the Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) Top 30 power rankings.

Minnesota at No. 14 Ohio State (-18, 47)
Saturday, Sep 27, 12:00 p.m. (ET)
The Buckeyes (3-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) are languishing at No. 39 FEI and a more forgiving No. 8 LVSC. Minnesota (4-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) checks in at No. 29 FEI, but sits outside the LVSC Top 30. The Golden Gophers built their superior FEI ranking with crushing wins over Bowling Green (-4) and Florida Atlantic (+6). Ohio State failed to reach the pay window versus Ohio (+33½) and Troy (+21).

Chris “Beanie” Wells hopes to save the day for the Buckeyes after missing the last three games with a hamstring injury. And he could very well be the difference between OSU salvaging at least a trip to the Rose Bowl or not. Wells should get a lot of work on Saturday, too, with freshman Terrelle Pryor (155.1 passer rating) taking over behind center. If Pryor has a strong game and Wells is healthy, it’s safe for Buckeyes fans to come out of hiding.

No. 8 Wisconsin at Michigan (+6, 42)
Saturday, Sep 27, 3:30 p.m. (ET) ABC
It turns out we do need some Badgers after all. They’re one of the good guys in the Big Ten at 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, capped off with a tough 13-10 win at Fresno State (+2). Wisconsin is No. 7 in FEI and No. 14 LVSC; Michigan is No. 47 FEI and off the LVSC charts after going 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS to start the season.

Wisconsin almost never gets any respect – not even from Vegas. This is the No. 13 rushing club in the nation at 238.7 yards per game, and No. 21 in plays allowed on defense at 194. The Wolverines offense is in total rebuild under Rich Rodriguez, dropping to No. 106 in the country at 290.7 yards per game. Mystique and Aura have both hightailed it out of Ann Arbor for now.

No. 23 Illinois at No. 15 Penn State (-14½, 57½)
Saturday, Sep 27, 8:00 p.m. (ET) ABC
Penn State (4-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) looks and cooks like the best team in the Big Ten at No. 6 FEI and No. 7 LVSC. No argument there. Illinois, meanwhile, is No. 63 FEI and nowhere to be found in the Vegas charts, thanks to a 2-1 SU and 0-2 ATS record that includes a narrow 20-17 win over the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (+25). The Cajuns are No. 98 FEI out of the 120 FBS teams.

There’s a major disconnect between perception and reality when it comes to the Fightin’ Illini. They only got into the Rose Bowl last year because the game’s organizers wanted to maintain their Pac-10 vs. Big Ten tradition – and Illinois happened to beat Ohio State as a 15½-point road dog in Week 11. Even a blind dog finds a bone now and then. One more bad game on national television Saturday night, and the Illini will be ready for the glue factory.

Home at Romney Stadium in Logan, the Utah St. Aggies should have very little trouble Saturday with an Idaho Vandals team that's 1-19 the last three years SU on the road.

Robb Akey is in his second year as Idaho's head coach and he's 2-13 SU. The wins have come over two Division I-AA schools, Cal-Poly last year (20-13) and Idaho State this year (42-27).

Meanwhile, Utah State's Brent Guy is in his fifth year at Logan and after an 0-3 start to '08, he's 6-32 as the Aggies head coach. Utah State was competitive in Las Vegas against UNLV on August 30 (lost 27-17) but the Aggies were "in over their heads" the last two Saturdays, allowing 66 points at Oregon and 58 at home to Utah last week. That 58-10 loss marked Utah State's eighth straight home defeat (1-7 ATS), which represents the longest active home losing streak in CFB.

However, the visiting Vandals own a nine-game road losing streak entering this Saturday's contest, allowing an average of 47.0 PPG. Idaho QB Nathan Enderle (334 YP and three TD passes last week) and RB Deonte Jackson (1,175 YR in '07 and back-to-back 100-yard games in '08) give the Vandals more offensive 'punch' than the Aggies but I'm taking Idaho away from home, considering its current record.

Utah State won last year's game in Moscow 24-19, despite being out-gained 428 to 272 in yards. Four Idaho turnovers were the difference and while one can't "count on getting turnovers," one also can't rely on the poor-traveling Vandals in this price range, either. Take Utah State.

Free Pick: Utah St. -5 (-110)

UNLV is better than they have been, but they had no way to go but up.  And the Rebels have no business laying this many points on Saturday to the Utah St. Aggies.

These teams opened against each other last year as well, with the UNLV Rebels coming away with a 23-16 win. UNLV scored with 1:02 remaining in that game, which ended the school's 15-game road losing streak (FYI, the Rebels went on to lose their other five road games last year).

UNLV's only other win in '07 came at home against Utah (27-0 shocker), as the team ended the year on an eight-game losing streak (2-10 overall). That leaves head coach Mike Sanford just 6-29 in his three years at the school and squarely on "the hot seat." Sanford insists there has been improvement with the program since his arrival but it's a "hard sell" when the team has managed just two wins in each of his three years in Las Vegas.

Even more troubling has been the fact that his teams have unraveled in similar fashion. Losing the final eight games last new was nothing new, as the '06 team went 1-10 after winning its season-opener and the '05 team lost eight of its last nine, including its final five.

Now Utah State is not exactly a powerhouse, as the Aggies are just 3-21 the last two years. However, they do open the '08 season on a two-game winning streak, after winning their final two games of the '07 season, 35-17 and 24-19. The back-to-back wins ended a 16-game losing streak and surprisingly, both wins came on the road (at New Mexico St and at Idaho).

I should mention at this time that the Aggies have won their last five visits to Las Vegas and that the Rebels are a pathetic 6-17 ATS as home favorites, a record that stretches back into the 1990s. I'll also mention that UNLV is 0-4 ATS in their last four tries as a double-digit favorite, twice losing outright.

Utah State was reasonably competitive in all but two games in '07 (lost at Oklahoma 54-3 and at home to Boise State 52-0) and was particularly good away from home, covering every road game but the team's trip to Norman (6-1 ATS). Let's take the points.

Free Pick: Utah St. +12½ (-110)

Sure, football is on everyone's mind right now, and the only baseketball making noise these days is the US men's team at the Beijing Olympics.  But now is also a good time for bettors to be looking ahead to the upcoming NCAA basketball season and specifically at some of the important tournaments in November.  The North Carolina Tar Heels will tip their season off very likely at No. 1 in the polls.

There’s no such thing as a summer vacation for the nation’s top college basketball coaches. There’s just too much work to do. It’s the same for handicappers; before you know it, the November tournaments will be upon us. Getting that homework done now will put you in the best position to jump all over the betting odds before the public and the books adjust.

The Maui Invitational is back for another year. The No. 1 seed will be the North Carolina Tar Heels, who are also the preseason favorites at 5-2 on the March Madness futures market. These “exhibition” games are actually very important – teams will be seeded at the Tournament (or miss it altogether) based in part on their results here. You may recall how last year’s Kentucky Wildcats fell apart after losing to Gardner-Webb in the second game of the season.

Maui has its usual solid field: Texas, Indiana, Notre Dame and Oregon are among the eight participants. As the top seed, North Carolina will open against the host team from Chaminade. The Tar Heels are almost certain to be named the No. 1 preseason team as well, with Tyler Hansbrough and several key teammates deciding to pull out of the 2008 NBA Draft. Last year’s Heels won the Las Vegas Invitational preseason event, finished the year 36-3 (24-12 against the spread) and made the Final Four.

There won’t be a Great Alaska Shootout this year, so the next-most important preseason tournament on the list is the Old Spice Classic in Orlando. Georgetown, Michigan State, Tennessee and Gonzaga will all be there. It won’t be quite as busy at the Anaheim Classic; Saint Mary’s and Baylor are the marquee teams scheduled to be there.

The ups and downs of the Hoosiers have dominated the headlines this summer. Tom Crean, the former Marquette coach who took the Golden Eagles to the Final Four in 2003, is being asked to pick up the pieces from Kelvin Sampson’s scandal-ridden program. Only two players are coming back from last year: forward Kyle Taber and guard Brett Finkelmeier. Guard Jordan Crawford was the latest Hoosier to leave, accepting a scholarship with the Xavier Musketeers to join fellow escapee Terrell Holloway. Indiana is a 300-1 long shot to win the Tournament; Xavier is 60-1.

The usual off-court problems haven’t been limited to Indiana. The Illinois Fighting Illini decided to dismiss guard Jamar Smith when a prosecutor asked for his probation from an earlier case to be revoked. Smith was expected to play a big part in the Illini offense after missing last year following a DUI conviction. Illinois went 16-19 (14-20-1 ATS) and 5-13 in Big Ten action without him. The good news: the 2009 recruiting class looks like one of the strongest in the country.

The worst of the offseason news right now has to be the nine violations (two of them basketball-related) the NCAA has accused Texas A&M-Corpus Christi of committing. Like the Hoosiers, the Islanders have been linked to improper telephone calls for recruiting purposes. TAMU-CC was last in the Southland at 9-20 (2-2 ATS) last year, and may stay there for a while. Keep an eye on the schedules when they’re released to see what non-con matchups the Islanders have in store this fall.

There is far less certainty about who wins the division titles in the NFC than in the AFC where the New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers are no-brainer selections. 

Unlike the AFC, the NFC does not have any clear cut favorites to win their divisions.  That is if you are going strictly by the odds, of course.  Another difference that the two conferences possess, is that you could feasibly make the playoffs with a losing record.  If this were baseball, we would have to squeeze all of the NFC teams into the NL West.  But there is still money to be made, so let’s take a look at the NFC, shall we?

NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys  -170
New York Giants  +465
Philadelphia Eagles  +385
Washington Redskins  +780

The Cowboys are favored to win the East once again.  Let’s see here...Is quarterback Tony Romo still making more headlines over which Hollywood starlet he’s dating than on the field?  Check. Is Terrell Owens still one of the most talented prima donnas to ever put on pads?  Check.  Is there a slight chance that The Artist Formerly Known as Raging Lunatic Pac Man Jones might be involved in more homicides than interceptions this year?  Check!  And finally, is owner Jerry Jones still coaching the team, manipulating poor Wade Phillips like an abused marionette?  Absolutely.

It’s business as usual in Big D.  If you can get them at -170, it might actually be the steal of the year.  They will be able to surpass the other three teams on talent alone.  And speaking of Pac Man Jones, how many times will an announcer say “Adam Jones on the play” this year, and nobody will have any clue who he is talking about?  There comes a point in every young thug’s life where you make a decision that may never ever allow you to escape your past.  For