It's only fitting on July 4th for the big paleface in Washington to stick it to the Red Man.  Put your wampum on the Nationals today against the Atlanta Braves.

Our MLB selection for the Fourth of July is on the Washington Nationals at home in the nation's capital over the Atlanta Braves.

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In his last start, Tommy Hanson overcame the flu and led the Braves to a 2-1 victory over the Red Sox. That play was a nice winner for our interleague Game of the Year. But we are going to go against Hanson and the Braves here, and take Nationals lefty John Lannan.

The Braves are a poor 47-71 their last 118 on the road, including 14-22 as a road favorite the last two years. There's no doubt that Hanson is a terrific young pitcher, but Lannan is 2-0 at home in his eight home starts this year, with a solid 2.03 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

The Nats are also 14-8 their last 22 at home vs. the Braves. Take the home dog on this July 4th holiday.

Free Pick: Nationals +113

Tommy Hanson has been everything he was supposed to be, and more.  Hanson gets the nod today in DC against John Lannan and the Nationals.

There was much hype about Tommy Hanson when he was in the minors. Since being called up to the majors by the Braves, he’s lived up to the hype and much more.

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Hanson hasn’t allowed a run in his past three starts, and he’ll look to remain unbeaten in the big leagues when he takes the hill against the Nationals. The rookie sensation is 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA and he’s beaten all-comers including the Red Sox who he limited to two hits over six shutout innings. Did I mention Hanson was suffering from the flu when he did that?

The right-hander hasn’t allowed a run in 20 innings, a string dating back to June 12 in Baltimore, the site of his first MLB win. I can’t say it enough; this guy is the real deal. One last add on Hanson: He’s the first Braves rookie since 1900 to hold his opponents scoreless in three consecutive starts.

The Braves have won five straight and at this stage in the season look like they’re a a serious contender in the NL East. They’ve got the pitching and their offense has been going gangbusters even without an injured Nate McClouth. Just seven days ago Atlanta was ranked 26th in the majors in runs per game but have exploded for 30 runs in their past four games. They got the bats going during a sweep of the Phllies and kept them going last night in a wild 9-8 win over Washington.

If there’s anyone on the Nationals staff who can cool down the Bravos it wold be today’s starter John Lannan. The young lefty enters with a 5-5 record and a 3.45 ERA. He’s 2-2 with a 3.30 ERA in five career starts against the Braves, including 0-1 with a 2.77 ERA this season.

As they showed on Friday night, the Nats are indeed pesky. Whether they can “bug” Hanson much remains to be seen. I’m siding with the hotter pitcher and the hotter team in this D.C. showdown.

Free Pick: Braves -121

The Fourth of July is all about fireworks, and there should be plenty of them this weekend when the New York Yankees host the Toronto Blue Jays at the new launching pad in the Bronx.

The Fourth of July weekend is all about fireworks.  I’m not talking about the kind that your mullet-wearing neighbor sets off in the middle of the street every year.  I’m talking about explosives in the ballpark.

On this weekend in particular, why would I risk boring myself to tears by watching the Astros-Giants series?  I’m in no mood for 1-0 finals, with the sole run being scored on a passed ball.  There is a time and place for those games, and this is not it.

I’m looking for explosive outbursts in my account balances, and that’s why I’m eyeing the Blue Jays-Yankees series.  Why battle the crowds for parking and the best spot with a view and subject yourself to deafening decibels of Lee Greenwood songs?  I suggest that you sit at home with me, avoid all police check points, and enjoy the fireworks at Yankee Stadium.

When these two met in May, the Under hit in two of the three games.  And then on Friday afternoon in the Bronx, New York took a 4-2 final.  With what these teams are capable of, one has to believe that at least two of their remaining games will be slugfests.  The matchups are as follows:

Roy Halladay (10-2, 2.56) vs. Chien-Ming Wang (1-6, 10.06)
Saturday, Jul 4, 1:05 p.m. (ET)

Scott Richmond (6-5, 3.69) vs. Chamberlain (4-2, 3.89)
Sunday, Jul 5, 1:05 p.m.

Ricky Romero (6-3, 2.85) vs. Andy Pettitte (8-3, 4.25)
Monday, Jul 6, 1:05 p.m.

Between both teams you’re getting about 10½ runs a game.  New York is behind only Tampa Bay, crossing the plate 435 times while Toronto is sixth scoring 398 times.  Marco Scutaro and Johnny Damon set the pace as they are tied for second in runs scored.  I have no idea how Damon is still putting together respectable seasons.  Just a couple of years ago he looked like someone reattached Ted Williams’ head and put him in pinstripes.  But I’ll give credit where it’s due.

The Jays lead the league with 175 doubles. Adam Lind (25), Scutaro (24) and Scott Rolen (23) are all among the league leaders.  Nothing starts or continues a rally like a two-bagger.  Nothing ends a rally like a tea bagger.  That’s why I never pass out at parties anymore.

Enough of the small talk already. When it comes to fireworks, the bigger the better.  And both of these teams can smack the long ball. New York leads the majors with 119 HR on the year. Toronto is eighth with 93. Throw in the fact that they will be playing at the new Yankee Stadium, which is comparable to trying to hit the ball out of a kiddie pool at times, and there should be more than a few outfield souvenirs offered up this weekend.  Rangers Ballpark in Arlington has seen 109 balls reach the bleachers, compared to Yankee Stadium’s league high 120.

Toronto has a few players who are right in the middle of career-type years.  Lind has cranked eight homers over the past month.  Rolen’s .332 BA is sixth best in baseball.  Second baseman Aaron Hill leads the team with 19 HR and 56 RBI.

For New York, Derek Jeter is putting together yet another fine season, and after a slow start, super free agent signing Mark Teixeira has been fulfilling his promise.  His 20 HR and 61 RBI give the Yankees that offensive firepower that they were hoping for when they bought…er…signed him in the offseason.

I realize that it is always dangerous to play Overs in any game that Roy Halladay is involved in.  But when the opposing pitcher is Chien-Ming Wang, one of the worst starting pitchers of 2009, it becomes much more acceptable.  Wang has looked more like Artie Lange for most of the season.  If Artie were from Taiwan, of course.

Besides Wang, all of the starting pitchers have enjoyed varying success this season.  But before you sweat Ricky Romero’s 2.85 ERA, or Andy Pettitte’s eight wins, keep in mind that most of the fun may not begin until it’s time for the bullpens to do their thing.

Both bullpens rank in league’s bottom half.  Toronto’s 4.05 ERA ranks 17th, and New York’s 4.19 sits at 21st.  But if you enjoy late game fireworks, check out the 44 homers given up by the Yankees’ relief pitchers.  Cleveland has the next worst mark, and at only 37, that’s still seven less than what N.Y. has yielded.  No low scores will be safe with these arms to call upon in clutch situations.  Oh goodie goodie!

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With the way Hiroki Kuroda has been pitching, getting Manny Ramirez back into the Dodgers lineup tonight should prove too much for the San Diego Padres at Petco Park.

The Dodgers make the trip to San Diego for a three-game weekend set against the host Padres. The Padres completed a four-game set at home on Thursday afternoon versus Houston losing the series three games to one.

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In the last two games of that series they gave up seven runs in each contest and only managed to score a total of eight runs themselves during the entire series. San Diego is a miserable 5-12 their last 17 at home and 1-7 their last eight when installed as a home underdog.

The road certainly doesn’t get any easier as the Dodgers are 14-2 when facing teams with a win percentage in the range of 38 to 46 percent on the season.

The Padres are 2-8 their last 10 when facing righthanded starters and 9-25 when they face a pitcher whose WHIP is 1.15 or less on the year.  LA has proven to be a tough out in division play posting a record of 44-18 versus opponents from the NL West and 50-22 as a favorite overall.

LA is also active in a MLB System that tells us to play on road favorites with a moneyline of -125 or more, averaging 0.9 homeruns or less per game on the season and coming in off a one-run win in their last game; these teams are 71-22 since the '97 season for +40.6 units of profit.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Dodgers win in tonight’s contest by 1.3 runs and our Math Model also favors LA by 0.95 runs over the Padres so lay the chalk with the visitor as LA grabs game one on Friday night.

Projected Finals Score:  Los Angeles-4 San Diego-3

Free Pick: Dodgers -135

One of the game's top sluggers returns to the team with the best record in the majors on Friday.  Take the Dodgers on the road at the San Diego Padres tonight.

Our Friday night MLB selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres at Petco Park.

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Padres righthander Chad Gaudin is a bit of an enigma.  He goes out and throws arguably his best start of his career in one of the toughest places to pitch in all of baseball (Arlington, Texas) last Sunday night, but only can manage a .500 record (2-2) in his home ballpark which is considered the most pitcher-friendly place to play.

Now granted, the Rangers have been in an awful power slump since losing outfielder Josh Hamilton to injury, so perhaps tonight facing their division rival and the best team in the National League it will be a much truer test for the former Oakland starter.

Other than having to face the team with the best record in the NL, Gaudin will likely have another obstacle to deal with and that is the much-anticipated return of slugger Manny Ramirez to the majors.  And the offensive spark provided by Manny's return could be just the thing that hard-luck L.A. starter Hiroki Kuroda needs.

In limited action (Kuroda missed the beginning of the season due to injury), the Japanese righthander has put up some of the best numbers in the NL in every category except win percentage as, despite a 3.77 ERA and an incredible 35 Ks to just seven walks, Kuroda is only 2-4.  He is working on an amazing streak of four games – 29 consecutive innings – without issuing a base on balls.

Kuroda also happens to be 3-1 in five career starts against the Padres.  Take the Dodgers.

Free Pick: Dodgers -132

Though the two teams sit just a game apart in the NL East, this weekend's series between the Mets and Phillies just doesn't have that marquee matchup feeling.  With their rosters depleted by injuries New York and Philadelphia now find the Marlins slipping between them and the Atlanta Braves hot on their heels.  Both teams enter with slumping offenses that could come alive against some of the arms scheduled to pitch.

It goes without saying you should expect fireworks this weekend. Just don’t wait around for them to happen during the three-game series between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Judging by the way the two frontrunners in the National League East are playing right now, you’d be lucky to see a security flare make it out of the infield.

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New York Mets (+120 series) at Philadelphia Phillies (-140 series)
The Phillies (39-37, -3.91 units) have one of the best offenses in the league, but not over a recent 10-game stretch during which they’ve dropped eight of 10 games against the moneyline. Philadelphia is fourth in baseball in runs per game (5.23), but is batting only .221 over its last 10 outings, including .199 against righthanded pitching.

That doesn’t bode well for Friday night’s Game 1 (7:05 PM ET) with the Mets (39-39, -1.66 units) sending righty Livan Hernandez (5-3, 4.04 ERA) to the mound. Hernandez has faced some hard luck over his last three starts, as New York has failed to cash despite his 3.00 ERA. If Hernandez continues to pitch well, it’ll be good news for the Mets, who are priced as +125 underdogs for the series opener. The Phils are on the baseball betting odds board as -145 chalk for Game 1, with the total listed at 10.

It’s not as if New York has been lighting it up at the plate, either, although it has been dealing with a bevy of injuries to many of its best players. The Mets are hitting only .230 over their last 10 games, down from their .273 team average (fourth in MLB) on the season. Carlos Beltran (bruised right knee), Jose Reyes (right hamstring tear), and Carlos Delgado (hip surgery) are all on the 15-day disabled list, leaving David Wright to fend for himself in the Big Apple.

Desperate for pitching, Philly hands the ball to Rodrigo Lopez (0-0, 0.00 ERA) on Friday night. Lopez last took the hill on a major league mound back in 2007, when he went 5-4 with a 4.42 ERA for the Colorado Rockies. The righthander can’t be much worse than the arms Charlie Manuel’s been throwing out there this season: Phillies starters have a 5.31 ERA on the season, including a bloated 5.72 ERA at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

Veteran southpaw Jamie Moyer (6-6, 6.05 ERA) has been one of the culprits, with a retire-now 7.15 ERA at home this season. He’ll get the call in the middle game of the series on Saturday afternoon (4:05 PM ET), while New York sends Fernando Nieve (3-1, 2.25 ERA) to the bump for his fifth start of the year.

There’s a potentially profitable betting angle with Moyer going for Philadelphia on Saturday. Moyer is a perfect 4-0 this season when he starts during the day, with the Phils 5-0 against the moneyline on those occasions. It doesn’t hurt that the Mets are batting a mere .204 against lefties over their last 10 games, which speaks volumes to the effect the injured triumvirate of Beltran, Reyes, and Delgado has on the Mets offense.

Johan Santana (9-6, 3.34 ERA) goes up against Joe Blanton (4-4, 5.08 ERA) in Sunday’s series finale (1:35 PM ET), with the Mets ace looking to get back on track after some uncharacteristically average outings. Santana has also been overvalued away from Citi Field this season, with a 3-4 record and 5.18 ERA on the road.

Like Moyer and the rest of the Phils starting rotation, Blanton hasn’t enjoyed life in his home ballpark. Blanton has a 6.05 ERA at Citizens Bank this year, contributing to Philadelphia’s money-bleeding ways for backers when it plays at home. The Phillies come into the weekend series only 13-22 at home this season, down -17.92 units for backers. That’s the second-worst mark on the MLB moneylist, with Philly trailing only the Arizona Diamondbacks as a home wager.

New York leads the season series 4-3, and that includes a split in a two-game series in Philadelphia in May. The Phillies took two of three from the Mets the last time the rivals hooked up at Citi Field last month, with both paydays coming in extra innings.

Aaron Harang looks to bounce back from a bad start at Cleveland when the Cincinnati Reds host the Arizona Diamondbacks in Thursday afternoon MLB action.

Our Thursday afternoon MLB selection is on the Cincinnati Reds at home in Porkopolis over the Arizona Diamondbacks.

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Righthanded veteran Aaron Harang is usually one of the Reds' most reliable starters and that has been true for most of this season as well. Although, in Harang's last start on June 26 he had his second-worst start of the year when he went into Cleveland and gave up seven runs (five earned) on 10 hits in just 4.2 innings. A start at home against the Diamondbacks may be just what the doctor ordered for Harang and the Reds.

Tonight's Arizona starter, veteran Doug Davis, epitomizes exactly what's wrong with this team. Davis has actually been one of the better starters in the NL this season, but you'd never know it from his record. Despite a 3.28 ERA and quality starts in 10 of his 16 outings this season, Davis has a pathetic 3-8 record.

Arizona combines that deadly combination of a very weak hitting lineup with extremely poor defense which usually results in a loss (hence its 31-46 record, the third-worst in the majors). The Diamondbacks are the worst defensive team in baseball, leading all others with 71 team errors through last weekend.

Cincinnati's on a bit of a roll having moved into third place in its division ahead of the Cubs, and only four games back while flirting once again with the .500 mark. Take the Reds.

Free Pick: Reds -133

Justin Verlander and Dallas Braden will prove too much for the bats in this afternoon contet.  Play the Tigers and Athletics below the total in their series finale in Oakland.

Our Wednesday afternoon MLB selection is on the Tigers and Athletics remaining under the total at the Coliseum in Oakland.

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Oakland lefthanded starter Dallas Braden hit a small bump in the road in his last start on June 26.  True, the young third-year player only gave up two earned runs in that start – the fourth start in a row that Braden has only given up two earned runs – but he lasted just 5.1 innings and threw 100 pitches in the process.  However, Braden can be excused, at least a little bit, for struggling in that start as it was against the red-hot Rockies in an interleague game.

Now Braden can get back to work against an American League foe (which is the good news).  The bad news is that he will have to face another hot team in the Tigers and their ace, Justin Verlander.

Braden will also have to deal with a very weak offense, that being the one of his own team.  Braden knows this problem firsthand as, despite an excellent ERA of 3.26, Braden has been getting very little run support and has a losing record of 5-7.  In fact in his last four starts the A's are 0-4 and have only scored a total of 10 runs, or an average of just 2.5 runs per game.

Not to be outdone, in Verlander's last five starts, the Tigers are just 2-3 despite mostly quality starts by their ace, and Detroit has only scored a total of 12 runs in those five games.  Take the Under.

Free Pick: Tigers-A's Under 7½ (+105)

Chicago's sticks are getting it done during a four-game win streak, and that's one reason to play the White Sox tonight to complete their three-game sweep in Cleveland.

The White Sox and Indians conclude their three-game series when Jose Contreras matches serves with Jeremy Sowers at Progressive Field in Cleveland tonight.

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Chicago begins the day on a four-game winning streak during which their offense has come alive with 31 runs crossing the plate.  In last night's rain-shortened win, the ChiSox socred 11 times, getting home runs from Paul Konerko, Josh Fields and Gordon Beckham.

While both pitchers have struggled of late, Contreras is 3-0 with a 1.92 ERA in his last three team starts against the White Sox. He's also 7-1 his last eight road starts on Wednesdays.

On the flip side, Sowers is 0-5 with a 7.71 ERA in his career team starts against the Pale Hose. With that, look for Chicago to complete the sweep here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the White Sox with Contreras versus Sowers.

Free Pick: White Sox +100

This series has already seen some fine pitching,  Unfortunately for the Cardinals, it's been Giants hurlers that have gotten the job done with Tim Lincecum blanking St. Louis on Monday and Randy Johnson besting Chris Carpenter last night.  Now the Redbirds turn to big Adam Wainwright as they look to avoid being swept at home for the first time since the Rockies came to town in early June.  ESPN brings you the action beginning at 8:15 (ET).

It’s all about pitching.

When it comes to baseball, there is one man on the diamond who has the outcome literally in the palm of his hand. Everybody else is merely reacting to what the pitcher is doing. Not every baseball GM or ardent statistician will agree with this assessment, but the unforgiving bottom line has trained handicappers to pay more attention to the guys on the mound than anyone else.

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We’ve already seen some tremendous pitching in the series between the San Francisco Giants (42-34, plus-8.86 units) and the St. Louis Cardinals (41-38, minus-3.70 units). As it should be; the Giants are tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for first in the majors with a team ERA of 3.61. St. Louis is tied with the Atlanta Braves for fourth overall with a 3.89 ERA. But the pitching displays in the first two games of their series at the new Busch Stadium were rather one-sided in favor of the Giants. Both games went Over.

We’ll see if the Cardinals can do better Wednesday night, starting at 8:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. Adam Wainwright (3.51 ERA, 4.00 xFIP) has a 10-6 team record for St. Louis, good enough for 1.38 units of profit. This is 6-foot-7 and 230 pounds of raw power on the loose; Wainwright is No. 10 in the National League with 89 strikeouts, and he’s gone at least six innings in each of his last 12 starts.

The Giants respond with Matt Cain (2.57 ERA, 4.44 xFIP), who has gone from the outhouse to the penthouse in the MLB money standings. In 2007, even with a solid ERA of 3.65 (4.66 xFIP), Cain was dead last out of 315 starting pitchers with 18.03 units of debt on a team record of 9-23. Fast forward to 2009, and Cain finds himself No. 6 overall with 6.19 units of profit on a team record of 11-4.

So you may have noticed the gaping crevasse between Cain’s ERA and his xFIP, which is indeed higher than Wainwright’s. The Giants have somehow managed to strand 86.7 percent of runners this year with Cain on the mound. This is the highest percentage for any starting pitcher in the majors – Kevin Millwood of the Texas Rangers is next at 85.9 percent. This is also highly unsustainable. More of Cain’s runners are almost certain to cash in as the innings accumulate and his left-on-base percentage regresses to something closer to last year’s 75.3.

Wainwright’s 76.7 LOB percentage is much more consistent with his performance since joining the majors in 2005, the same year as Cain. It’s fair to conclude that Wainwright is likely to have a better night on the mound than Cain. But that’s judging by defense-independent criteria. When you put the defense back in, you can start to see how the Giants have been able to keep the money taps flowing. The Cardinals are No. 8 in the majors with 53 errors; San Fran is No. 24 with just 37 errors. Wainwright has seen five unearned runs go up on the board compared to one for Cain.

The Giants also make it easier for Cain to earn the W with a bullpen ERA of 3.39, or No. 6 overall. The Cards are ranked No. 12 with a 3.97 ERA, and they’ve tossed seven innings of relief over the past two games compared to 3.2 innings for San Francisco. The one positive for St. Louis is that closer Ryan Franklin (0.93 ERA, 3.89 xFIP) is fresh after three days of rest and relaxation. Franklin hasn’t allowed a run, earned or otherwise, in his last 11 appearances dating back to May 20.

To pay lip service to the hitters, we should mention that both teams are pretty bad in this department. St. Louis is No. 19 in the majors with a .735 OPS, and newly acquired Mark DeRosa (.799 OPS with Cleveland this year) might not be able to play third base after reporting a “little tweak” in his left wrist during an at-bat on Tuesday. Joe Thurston (.708 OPS) is a likely candidate to play Wednesday. The Giants are No. 28 in team OPS at an even .700.

The betting odds have St. Louis pegged as a -135 home favorite with a total of 7.5 runs. The Giants are 4-1 against the Cards this year and 12-5 over the past three seasons. Again, despite all that great pitching, the over is 9-2 in their last 11 meetings.

It was a very good month for the Colorado Rockies.  After going 21-7 over the past month, with three of those losses coming in the first three days of June, With a favorable schedule coming up, can the winning continue?

Independence Day might be right around the corner, but the party started for Colorado Rockies backers a month early.  It was June 4th when they decided to break out of their season-long funk, embark on a 21-4 run and become relevant once again.

To get an idea of just how dreadful they were, you need to go back to June 3rd.  After dropping three straight in Houston, the Rockies owned the league's second-worst record at 20-32.  Only the Nationals were below them, and they’re hardly a MLB team to begin with.  They sat alone at the bottom of the NL West, 15.5 games back.  For the gambling-inclined, Colorado was sitting at -12.98 units.  Spirits were a mile low in the Mile High.

Break up the Rockies!

Then something reminiscent of their late season playoff push from a couple of seasons ago began to take place.  Colorado began to win.  And win.  And win some more.  Before anyone knew what happened, these former sad sacks had ripped off 11 straight wins.  Once that streak ended, the victories kept rolling in.

This impressive run currently sits at 21-4.  Five teams have gotten the broom treatment as Oakland, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Milwaukee and St. Louis have all been swept away.  If you have been following the Rockies blindly during this run, you would find yourself up a cool 20.85 units.  Now that’s a turnaround! Fourteen of their 21 wins have been as underdogs to provide some pretty paydays.

The Rockies have climbed all the way up to 41-36, only 7.5 back of the division lead, and in sole possession of the league's 10th-best record.  This is now a dangerous group and the credit is to be shared by the entire team.  The core of Colorado’s batting lineup has been producing at the plate.  It’s odd to find such a lineup of white bread in this day and age.  I think Torii Hunter might’ve been referring to this organization when he went on his Jackie Robinson Day tirade a few years ago.  But as usual, I’m getting off point.

Torii Hunter is not impressed

Brad Hawpe (6 HR, 16 RBI), Clint Barmes (4 HR, 19 RBI), Troy Tulowitzki (7 HR, 15 RBI), Garrett Atkins (3 HR, 8 RBI), Ian Stewart (6 HR, 16 RBI) and the venerable Todd Helton (18 RBI) have all been turning it up these past 25 games.  The production has been pretty evenly spread out and as a result, they have outscored their opponents 147-92 during this span.  But obviously, the pitching staff has had a lot to do with that as well.

The starting rotation of Aaron Cook (5 wins), Jason Hammel (4 wins), Jorge De La Rosa (4 wins), Ubaldo Jiminez (3 wins) and Jason Marquis (3 wins) have been spectacular, putting their team in a position to win with a new found regularity.  But it has been their closer who has put the exclamation on most of these wins.

Since June 4th, Huston Street is a perfect 11-11 in save opportunities.  His only other appearance resulted in a win.  Street’s success symbolizes the way things have gone for the Rockies as of late.  So the question now is – can the boys in purple keep it up for the Coors Field faithful?

Hell if I knew the answer to that I could pack up my lemonade stand.  What I can tell you is that the opportunity is definitely there.  Right now they are playing the Dodgers who are the only team to sweep them this year (twice!).  Behind a two hit shutout gem from Marquis last night, they guaranteed that L.A. would not sweep them for a third time.  Once that is done, Colorado plays 17 straight games against the Diamondbacks, Braves, Padres and those wacky Nationals.  You will be hard pressed to find a more favorable schedule than that.

Can the Rockies continue to pile up the W’s?  I think it’s definitely possible.  But if not, might I interest you in an ice cold lemonade?

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Three games going off just after eight o'clock tonight pique my interest, capped by a Randy Johnson, Chris Carpenter hook up in St. Louis when the Giants meet the Cardinals.

Angels at Rangers
Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, 8:05 p.m. (ET)
Starting Pitchers: Joe Saunders, L (9-6, 3.66) vs. Scott Feldman, R (8-4, 4.06)

Umpire: Veteran Tim McClelland will be making his 18th start behind the mask in this one.  He has a slight lean to the visitors, 10-7, and a heavy lean to the Over, 10-4-3.  More than a dozen plate crossings on average when he calls the pitches, with an 8-1-1 O/U/P record in the 8½-10 range.

Weather: Cloudy with a decent chance of rain moving through a lot of Texas today, a welcome relief from the hotter 'n hell spell we've been in. Better chance of rain during the afternoon, and isolated t-storms are a good possibility early in the evening.  Looking at something in the mid-to-upper 80s for a temperature, a little wind is out of the NW at 8-10 (out to left, left-center).

My Pick:  Tough call here. The Rangers, with the exception of a couple of games late last week at Arizona and home against the Padres, have been very dead on offense for the past couple of weeks.  Then again, they always lit Saunders up in this park.  Ian Kinsler is already drooling bigger puddles than Pavlov's mutt.  Can't play on Texas, hard to play on Saunders given his history in this situation, so I'll play on McClelland and what is generally a hitter's park, hoping the Rangers bats come alive a bit against an arm they feast on, and take the Over 10 (-110).

Twins at Royals
Kauffman Stadium, 8:10 p.m. (ET)
Starting Pitchers: Scott Baker (6-8, 5.17) vs. Brian Bannister (7-6, 4.17)

Umpire: Sam Holbrook is not an umpire angles kinda' ump this season, split 7-7 on the Home-Away side and 6-8 on the Over/Under.  If he has a big trend going for him, it's that he's 4-1 for the home team in the -145 to -185 range, a stat that doesn't matter in this one with the Royals the home dogs in this one.

Weather: Beautiful night in KC on Tuesday, or should be.  No chance of rain, fairly low humidity for the area, first pitch temp in the upper 70s probably, light breeze out of the north at 5-10 and possibly picking up to 10-15 as the night progresses (from left in towards 1B).

My Pick: I just don't like the Royals right now.  At the same time, Minnesota is a money-burner on the road.  Give me the Under 9 and I'll shop around to see if I can get it better than the -120 I'm seeing at most shops.

Giants at Cardinals
Busch Stadium, 8:15 p.m. (ET)
Starting Pitchers: Randy Johnson, L (9-7, 4.68) vs. Scott Carpenter (5-5, 1.78)

Umpire: Tim Tschida has been pretty even this year in terms of splits, 7-9 in favor of the visitors and 7-7-2 on the totals.  But there is a nice average of 10.3 runs per game and only two 1-run contests among his 15 plate appearances.

Weather: Like their neighbors in KC, it should be a nice evening in St. Louis.  Upper 70s when the game gets started, relatively low humidity this time of year but stronger winds out of the NW at 12-18 MPH (from LF corner across to RF corner).

My Pick: Believe it or not, Carpenter is making just his fourth home start of the season, with his last four on the road.  St. Louis and Carpenter are 3-0 in his previous three appearances at Busch and one of his few road wins came in San Fran.  I hate getting sucked into this big chalk however.  So I'm going to take a little more risk on the run line for the Cardinals, -1½ (+122).

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Brandon Morrow has slowly been building arm strength for Seattle while Joba Chamberlain has found his control for the Yankees.  Seattle and New York stay Under the total.

Our Tuesday night MLB selection is on the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees remaining under the total in the Bronx.

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Seattle righthander Brandon Morrow is back in the rotation where he wants to be.  Morrow never really wanted to be a closer, but he didn't have the arm strength to go seven or eight innings every five days earlier in the year.  Now he is trying to make the transition back to starter and so far this latest venture back into the rotation is going pretty well.

The Mariners have taken it slowly with Morrow, and increased his innings in his first three starts from three to four and then to five in his last start at home against San Diego.  Tonight should prove to be the toughest of his starting tasks so far, pitching in Yankee Stadium against one of the best lineups, and against another converted reliever in Joba Chamberlain.

Chamberlain put together a very solid outing against the Braves in his last start, and the part that the Yankees no doubt like the most was the fact that he exhibited great control, issuing no walks on that occasion after giving up nine free passes in his two prior starts combined.

In the five games which Morrow has appeared in for the Mariners in June (two relief efforts; three starts) the Mariners have only scored a total of 13 runs, and in those five games a total of only 29 runs have crossed the plate, or an average of less than six runs per game.  I foresee a low-scoring game here.  Take the Under.

Free Pick: Mariners-Yankees Under 10 (-120)

Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the reasons the Rockies have won 20 of their last 23. Colorado cashes again on Monday in Los Angeles against Randy Wolf and the Dodgers.

The Colorado Rockies and Dodgers return to play in the Senior Circuit when Ubaldo Jimenez matches serves with Randy Wolf in Los Angeles tonight.

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Jimenez enters tonight game in solid current form with three wins and a loss in his last four starts, posting a 3.23 ERA in that span.  Two of those wins came against the tough Tampa Bay Rays at home and on the road against Albert Pujols and the St. Louis Cardinals.

On the flip side, Wolf is in rocky form with a 6.66 ERA in his last five starts and favored (-130) to boot. With that, look for Wolf to drop to 6-15 on Mondays here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Colorado with Jimenez versus Wolf.

Free Pick: Rockies +110

Vicente Padilla has been solid of late and over his career vs. the Angels.  Take the Texas Rangers at home on Monday when they begin an important three-game set against the Halos.

Our Monday night MLB selection is on the Texas Rangers at home in Arlington over the Los Angeles Angels in a crucial AL West contest.

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Interleague play is over and the Rangers are probably quite pleased about that.  Not that they played that badly in the games vs. the National League (they went .500 during the 18 interleague contests this season), but they definitely didn't want to see their chief rival in the division – and tonight's foe – have any more success at the expense of the NL.

The Angels simply killed their opposition during interleague play this season, going a league-best 14-4 and pulling into first place in the race for the AL West title in the process.  So this series is huge as we head towards the All-Star break two weeks from now, and the Rangers get to start out with their hottest starter of late, veteran righthander Vicente Padilla.

The one-time Phillie is not only the hottest Ranger pitcher, but he's arguably been one of the best in the AL over his past four starts dating back to June 7, going 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA.  Padilla isn't a strikeout pitcher as his 40 Ks in just over 78 innings will attest, but he's a smart veteran who relies on changing speeds and picking batters apart.

He's done well in his career against the Angels, going 6-3 in 12 lifetime starts against them, including a big win on May 16 at this same ballpark when he almost went all the way (eight innings).  He should step up big again tonight in Arlington.

Free Pick: Rangers -125

Interleague play is done as MLB returns to normal this week. First up for the Blue Jays are the Tampa Bay Rays in a key AL East series at Toronto to open lucky Week 13 of the season.

The Doc has given himself a clean bill of health.

Roy Halladay will make his first trip to the mound in 17 days when he takes to the hill at the Rogers Centre tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Blue Jays ace was forced from his outing on June 12 with a strained groin, and after a few sessions last week, including a 50+ pitch tune-up on Friday, the best pitcher in the major leagues is set to resume yet another All-Star season.

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Halladay (10-4, 2.53) will make his return against AL East rivals Tampa Bay and Jeff Niemann (10-4, 4.23) in the first meeting between the two division foes this season. When interleague play started two weeks ago, both the Rays and Jays sat tied in the ALE with 34-31 records. Tampa Bay went 8-4 since then against their NL opposition (Rockies, Mets, Phillies and Marlins), and come in winners of their last five. Toronto was 7-5 in the same stretch (Phillies twice, Nationals and Reds), and come in having dropped three of their last four contests.

The Rays are 4-0 in Niemann's last four starts, providing plenty of run support for the Houston native with Tampa averaging 10 runs per game in those outings. This is his first career start against Toronto. Kevin Millar is the only Blue Jays hitter to have faced him before, going 2-for-5 against the righthander when Millar was with the Orioles in 2008.

Halladay has held Tampa hitters to a .256 overall batting average and .672 OPS. Carl Crawford and BJ Upton area a combined .299 (26-87, 2 HR) vs. the big righthander.

This is his first start vs. Tampa this year. Halladay went 2-3 vs. the Rays in 2008 (1-1 at the Rogers Centre) with a 4.11 ERA, almost a run-&-a-half higher than his season mark of 2.77. The Jays are 6-2 with Halladay on the hill in Toronto this season.

There has been no word on Halladay being on a pitch limit tonight in his first appearance back from the DL. The guy's a workhorse, pure and simple, and has averaged about 108 tosses per start this season, not counting the game in June 12 with he left with the groin injury. That pitch count includes three complete games, one of them a 133-pitch effort on June 2.

One interesting stat on Halladay is the Jays have lost all three games he failed to pick up a decision this season. The reverse is true for Niemann as Tampa has won all four of the starts he ended up with a no-decision this year. If this one is left to the bullpens to decide, I give the Rays the edge in that department.

Toronto opened at -167 at 5Dimes (Tampa +157) with a total of 8½. Being the cheap old bastard that I am, I can't bring myself to pull the trigger on Halladay in this one, especially given the way the Rays are playing and the fact Niemann has been pitching on a 'lucky day in their rotation. Instead, given that we have the No. 1 scoring offense in the AL (Tampa, 5.64 rpg) and the No. 5 (Toronto, 5.07 rpg), I'm going to make a small play on the Over in this one.

The series price has the Jays listed as -140 favorites at The Greek.  I like them at home and with their ace in Game 1, but I don't think they have a -140 edge for the three-game set.  The Rays will follow Niemann with two more righthanders, Matt Garza (7-8. 3.61) and James Shields (8-7, 3.41). Countering for the Blue Jays in Games 2 and 3 of the series are righthander Scott Richmond (8-4, 3.68) and lefty Ricky Romero (6-4, 3.20). The series finale on Wednesday is a 1:07 matinee at the Rogers Centre.

Trevor Cahill is pitching well for the Oakland A’s, as he has now allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts. When you factor in that Oakland has been great in interleague home games, the A’s become the obvious play today.

The Oakland Athletics are sad to see their interleague schedule come to an end vs. the Colorado Rockies today.

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Oakland is 20-7 their last 27 interleague games vs. left-handed starters and they are 66-31 their last 97 interleague home games. The Athletics are 8-3 their last 11 games as home favorites. Starter Trevor Cahill has allowed three runs or less in his last seven starts.

Colorado is 23-55 their last 78 interleague games on the road and they are 15-46 their last 61 interleague road games vs. right-handed starters. The Rockies are 1-8 their last 9 interleague games vs. losing teams.

Play on Oakland with Cahill today.

Free Pick: Athletics -121

Misery may love company, but Cubs and White Sox fans will never mix. The Windy City braces itself for a good old-fashioned civil war this weekend as the two Chicago crews meet on the city's South Side. With each team owning anemic offenses and solid pitching, plate crossings could be few and far between for this three-game set. The White Sox are -110 in the series finale after the clubs split a couple of one run decisions over the first two games.

The Cubs and White Sox are bringing their familiar brand of misery to the good people of Chicago. These two long-standing MLB institutions are a combined 11 units in the hole this year; the Cubs (34-35, minus-9.01 units) are treading water in the National League Central, and the White Sox (35-37, minus-1.99 units) are doing the same in the American League Central. Only one of them will leave U.S. Cellular Field this weekend with its pride intact.

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Scoring runs has been a problem for both teams this season. The White Sox are ranked No. 20 in the majors with a .727 OPS, dropping all the way to .672 OPS at their pitcher-friendly park. The Cubs have a comparable .723 team OPS (No. 23 in the bigs) that should rise after playing three games with the designated hitter. But away from Wrigley Field, their bats go limp with a .696 OPS. The under is 19-13 this year when the Cubs take the road and an impressive 26-10 when the Sox are home.

The betting odds for Friday’s series opener have a total of nine runs up on the board, with both teams priced evenly at -110. Here’s a look at the pitching matchups for all three games.

Game 1, Friday (4:05 p.m., CSN)
Randy Wells vs. Jose Contreras
Wells (2.57 ERA, 4.07 xFIP) has been absolute found treasure for the Cubs, landing back in their laps after the Blue Jays originally took him away in the Rule 5 Draft. He came up from the minors this year to replace Carlos Zambrano during one of his injury layoffs, and Wells has stuck with the big team by serving up six quality starts in eight appearances. The Cubs are 3-5 in those games (minus-3.10 units) with the under checking in at 5-3.

Contreras (5.23 ERA, 4.88 xFIP) is having a rougher time for the Pale Hose, who are 2-7 in his nine starts (the under was 6-3) for a deficit of 5.48 units. But his last three starts have all been quality, with Chicago winning twice, and the veteran northpaw was moved up in the rotation from Thursday specifically to face the Cubs. One problem with that theory: Those Cubs who have faced Contreras before have a combined .990 OPS against him.

Game 2, Saturday (4:05 p.m., FOX)
Ryan Dempster vs. Mark Buehrle
If it wasn’t for bad luck, Dempster (3.83 ERA, 4.22 xFIP) wouldn’t have any luck at all. The Cubs are 5-10 in his 15 starts and 6.89 units in the hole. Run support is quite poor for Dempster at 4.13 per game, once again making the under a strong bet at 9-6. That trend has solidified over the past five games, all quality starts for Dempster and all going under on a combined score of 12-12.

Buehrle (3.17 ERA, 4.23 xFIP) must be stealing all of Dempster’s lucky charms. He’s been showered with 4.79 runs per game in support, not to mention 4.60 units in profit on a team record of 10-4. If you’re not familiar with xFIP, that’s adjusted Fielding Independent Percentage, and these two pitchers are virtually equal in effectiveness according to this fancy metric. Buehrle is stranding a ridiculous 81.3 percent of batters (to 73.5 percent for Dempster) and the under is naturally running to the bank at 10-4.
 
Game 3, Sunday (2:05 p.m., WGN)
Carlos Zambrano vs. John Danks
Zambrano (3.48 ERA, 4.42 xFIP) is on a roll with five straight quality starts, and when this massive Venezuelan gets going, he’s tough to stop. The Cubs were 3-2 in those starts to improve to 8-4 on the season and 3.29 units in the black. The over/under is split down the middle at six apiece. Zambrano has a .660 OPS this year with a pair of home runs; Micah Hoffpauir (.793 OPS) served as his DH and went deep Thursday night against the Tigers. But Kevin Gregg blew the save in the ninth as Detroit (-120) prevailed 6-5.

White Sox fans are anxious about Danks (4.43 ERA, 4.01 xFIP) and whether last year’s breakthrough campaign was just a flash in the pan. Again, according to the magic xFIP, he’s almost exactly the same pitcher in 2009 as 2008 (3.98 xFIP). The Sox are 7-7 in his 14 starts for 0.08 units in earnings; the under is 8-6, including his last four games in a row.

Seattle's Felix Hernandez is in excellent form right now and at this short price against Eric Milton and the Dodgers, it's impossible to pass up a play on Seattle in Los Angeles tonight.

Seattle's 23-year old Felix Hernandez is arguably the hottest starter in baseball right now. In his last six starts he has a 1.00 ERA, giving up one or less earned runs in five of six of those starts. He has pitched seven of eight quality starts in a row and has a 98/31 strikeout/walk ratio on the year.

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The Mariners have won his last seven interleague starts as he continues to dominate National League batters. He has beaten both San Diego and San Francisco, allowing just one earned run in 2009 interleague play.

They get to face Dodgers hurler Eric Milton who is coming off the disabled list. It's a great spot to fade the southpaw today who hasn't pitched since June 5. In what will be his first start back from a back injury, he has to take on a Mariners club that is batting .317 vs. lefties in their last 10 games.

It's always a good spot to fade or stay away from a pitcher in their first appearance back from the DL; a pitcher's body is used to a routine of pitching every five days and it's amazing how one 15-day trip on the DL can mess things up.

This is tremendous value with Seattle and the hottest pitcher in baseball laying such a short number against a guy off the disabled list who has pitched just 18.2 innings all year. LA is 1-4 in their last five games as home pups. Grab up the value with the Mariners to even things up tonight.

Free Pick: Mariners -123

After blowing an early 4-0 lead at Houston last night, the Detroit Tigers will bounce back on Saturday with rookie hurler Alfredo Figaro on the mound against the Astros.

Our Saturday MLB interleague selection is on the Detroit Tigers on the road over the Houston Astros.

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With a name like Alfredo Figaro, it seems like Detroit's latest rookie starter call-up should perhaps be playing the Metropolitan Opera rather than taking the mound at Minute Maid Park. But Figaro (who's actually Dominican - not Italian) has shown in a very short amount of time that he has the stuff to potentially stick with this club for a long, long time and make an impact deep into the season.

In his last start, which just happened to be his first ever in the majors, Figaro hit 97 MPH with his fastball, and although he gave up eight hits in five innings, he earned his first major league win (not many can say they won their first ever MLB start).  And perhaps most importantly, he showed his club that he can be cool under pressure. He'll likely get great run support the rest of the way, and with a strong bullpen, the Tigers won't have to risk burning his young arm out as he gets acclimated to the big leagues.

Everything seems to be working for the Tigers right now and their fans and management probably feel like it's about time since they were supposed to run away with this division last year and were nothing but a huge disappointment.

Houston's just the opposite and is in danger of falling behind the Pirates and into the NL Central cellar, which at this point wouldn't be much of a surprise.  Take the Tigers.

Free Pick: Tigers -112

The Reds are slowly sinking in the NL Central while the Blue Jays are keeping up in the AL East race.  Take Toronto on Thursday as the complete the sweep of Cincinnati.

The Toronto Blue Jays offense has been very inconsistent this season, with long stretches of explosiveness and extended droughts of ineptness. In their last three games the Northern Birds have been in full flight, popping 24 runs on the board.

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Going back a little further the Jays have scored seven runs or more six times in the last eight games with their 4-5 hitters batting a combined .388 with five homers in those contests.

They will go against one of MLB's most consistent pitchers this season, Johnny Cueto ( 6-4, 2.55 ERA). Despite his prowess, the native of the Dominican Republic has proven he is hittable of late, as was the case in his last effort vs the White Sox when Cueto lasted just 4.2 innings while allowing five runs and three taters among the 11 hits. I'm betting the righty will once again be in for tough outing against a Blue Jays team that is 41-17 in their last 58 games as home favorite.

Hey I know the Blue Jays pitcher Brett Cecil (2-1, 4.26 ERA) has not looked overpowering and rather average, but it must be noted that Reds manager Baker has seen his teams go just 3-18 the last 21 times they have faced AL teams with a starting pitcher that has an ERA of 4.00 to 4.70, losing SU by an average of 2.8 RPG.

Final Notes & Key Trends: The Reds have lost six straight road games. The Jays are 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series.

Free Pick: Blue Jays -120

Andy Pettitte and the New York Yankees have the advantage tonight at Atlanta's Turner Field when they close out their three-game set against Derek Lowe and the Braves.

Our Thursday night MLB interleague selection is on the New York Yankees on the road at Turner Field over the Atlanta Braves.

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Derek Lowe has hit a little road bump in his last two starts.  After throwing at least seven innings for five straight starts from May 18 to June 9, Lowe has only gone 8.2 innings combined in his last two starts and he's lost both of them while surrendering a total of 10 earned runs.  Both of those were on the road and now Lowe gets to come back home to Atlanta - that's the good news.

The bad news is that he's facing the Yankees and veteran Andy Pettitte, who had probably his best start of the season on the road in South Florida in his last trip to the hill.  More bad news for Lowe and the Braves: In nine previous regular season outings against Atlanta, Pettitte is a stellar 5-1 with a 3.13 ERA.

There is basically no home field advantage for the Braves this season as they are just under .500 on the season, just under .500 on the road, and just under .500 at home.  At least they are consistent, but consistency of that type won't get it done tonight against one of the most potent offenses in the league.  Take the Yanks.

Free Pick: Yankees -107

Randy Wolf and Gavin Floyd should keep the bats in check on Wednesday night when the Dodgers and White Sox meet for the second game of their series in Chicago.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and White Sox resume their three-game series when Randy Wolf takes on Gavin Floyd in Chicago.

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The old grey Wolf has won seven of his last eight starts, including each of his last three road starts. Only once in his last seven starts has a game produced more than nine runs, tonight's total, with the average in those seveon a little more than 6.5 runs per game.

Meanwhile, Floyd has never lost a team start at home in June in his MLB career, going 8-0. Only one of his last six starting assignments has gone over nine runs.

With Wolf 9-21 Under in his last 30 starts during the first half of the season the last two years and the White Sox 4-15 Under in June this season, look for this game to stay below the total here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Under in the Dodgers/White Sox game.

Free Pick: Dodgers-White Sox Under 9 (-120)

Minnesota has found it tough on the road and Milwaukee's pitching is on the decline.  That adds up to an easy Over tonight when the Brewers host the Twins in Beer City.

Our Wednesday MLB interleague selection is on the Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers going over the total at Miller Park.

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This is an important series for both teams, especially for the Brewers who were in first place in their division when interleague play began but now have fallen behind the Cardinals due to their poor performances against the AL teams over the past couple of weeks.  The biggest reason for the regression has been the decline of Milwaukee's starting pitching.

Dave Bush (tentatively scheduled to pitch tomorrow afternoon's game) is a perfect example, going from a starter who could seemingly do no wrong in April and the first half of May to now being winless since May 19, and not throwing a single quality start during that time.

Tonight's starter, Braden Looper, has also fallen on hard times as he is winless in his four June starts with a 7.97 ERA and a .322 opponents batting average.  It is because of these types of performances that the Brewers are said to be shopping players like outfielder Corey Hart to other teams in search of some quality arms for the second half.

Twins righthander Nick Blackburn has been pitching very well of late and just threw his first career complete game in his last start.  But before you get too excited, consider that that latest gem was against the Pirates – perhaps the weakest offense right now in baseball – and the two starts before that were in Oakland and Seattle, two of the most pitcher-friendly places in the Major Leagues.  Take the Over.

Free Pick: Twins-Brewers Over 9 (+100)

Bread resides in Limbo City right now, someplace between Baseball Burnout-ville and When the Hell Does Football Get Here Village.  Brother, can you spare a square?

The inevitable baseball burnout has begun for yours truly.  When there are a million games during the season, and I seem to have action on about a quarter of them, it’s bound to happen this time of year.  I’d like to say it is a Michael Jordan type burnout, where the constant winning became a bore to me, but alas, that is not the case.

I need a break from the stats, the streaks, and the trends once in awhile.  Last week I toyed around with my Bet-Like-a-Square project.  It involved a steady diet of Yankees, Red Sox, Phils and Cubs – either as large moneyline favorites, or on the run line.  The project ended with a dismal 1-6 record.  The lesson there is that when you bet like a square, you will probably lose like a square.

Budget that remains after Bet-Like-A-Square Project

Interleague play always piques my interest.  You are able to enjoy some matchups that you don’t see every day.  For now, it’s a serviceable engine to get me closer to baseball’s stretch run, or football, or the next MMA event.  Without putting a ton of thought into it (burnout, remember?) there are three games that I like tomorrow.  Let’s take a quick look at them, shall we?

New York Yankees -137
Atlanta Braves +127
It looks like my square betting will continue for at least one more game, as I’m backing the Yankees as a road favorite.  Joba Chamberlain (3-2, 3.89) and the slightly fading Yankees will be facing the Braves and their lackluster offense.

Kenshin Kawakami (4-6, 4.42) will be starting/getting knocked around by Yankee hitters.  He’s actually been fantastic vs. the AL East this year.  In three starts against Boston, Baltimore and Toronto he is 2-0, 1.90 ERA, 15 Ks in 19 IP.  New York’s high-powered hitting (second in MLB run scoring, first home runs) should change Kawakami’s AL East fortunes.  That’s the plan, at least.

Philadelphia Phillies +158
Tampa Bay Rays -168

Garza gets it done

The Phils seem to have the Rays number.  Last year’s World Series wasn’t even close, and last night they throttled them 10-1.  Never fear, Matt Garza (4-5, 3.83) is here.  You know those starting pitchers that always seem to bury you?  We all have plenty of them.  Well Garza is the opposite – he is my rabbit’s foot.

When I am in need of a big win, I can almost always count on Garza.  Will he be able to shut down the NL East leading, defending world champion Phillies?  Will the highest scoring team in baseball be able to inflate Joe Blanton’s 5.28 ERA?  I hope so.  After last night’s throttling, they need some serious vindication.

Baltimore Orioles +128
Florida Marlins -138
How many runs will be scored in this game?  Ten?  Twenty?  Both starting pitchers own ERA’s off the Richter Scale.  Baltimore’s Jason Berken (1-3, 6.84) will face Florida’s Ricky Nolasco (3-6, 7.15).  The o/u for the game is only nine.  Something seems strange about that. 

I was going to play the Marlins, but over the course of the last 15 minutes, I’ve talked myself into the over.  Perhaps I’ll play both.  I’m loosey goosey these days and not putting too much thought into anything.  The number crunching will come back soon enough, but everyone needs a break. 

So the Yankees, the Rays as a big home favorite and an Over with two high ERA pitchers starting.  It looks like the square project is continuing.  Crap.

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The Mariners have surged above .500 behind some solid pitching, and that will continue for Seattle at home on Tuesday night when the M's host the San Diego Padres.

Our Tuesday night MLB interleague selection is on the Seattle Mariners home at Safeco Field over the San Diego Padres.

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After a pretty hot start to the season in April (12-6 in their first 18 games), the Mariners hit a "cooling off" stretch which saw them go 9-20 over their next month of competition. But since then, Seattle has righted the ship again and has now won 14 of its last 22 games to get back to .500.  In fact, the Mariners just went over the .500 mark with a win on Sunday against the Diamondbacks.

The key for the Mariners has been the surprising pitching performances they've gotten from some of the most unlikely of sources, like starter Jarrod Washburn.  Even more surprising than Washburn has been the performance of starter Garrett Olson who wasn't even on the opening day roster, but now appears to have a full-time rotation job with this club and seems to be making the most of his opportunity.  With Erik Bedard back on the DL for a shoulder injury, the Mariners will likely be relying on Olson for as long as he can keep it up.

His last two starts were on the road against Baltimore and San Diego and he has earned this one back at home.  It's also a great matchup for him as he will face the Padres and struggling starter Chad Gaudin.  Gaudin just took the loss to Seattle in his last start at home and he is now 2-6 with a 5.98 ERA, not the kind of numbers San Diego was hoping for when they signed the veteran righthander about two weeks into the season.  Take the Mariners.

Free Pick: Mariners -133

There are four World Series rematches on tonight's interleague card, with the Dodgers-White Sox contest in Chicago marking the 50th anniversary since their Fall Classic meeting.

When the Los Angeles Dodgers visit the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday, it will be on the 50th anniversary of the 1959 World Series matchup in which LA won that Series. If Chicago has plans to foil a repeat performance of that series they will have to continue to be on their game and have their newfound run support in place.

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Jim Thome returns to the lineup to help the White Sox continue their recently improved run performance. Chicago is averaging 5.4 runs per game over their last seven outings against, a season average of 4.2 runs per game. They will need that on Tuesday against the Dodgers who average five runs per game over the season and 5.1 runs per game on the road.

Los Angeles sends Hiroki Juroda to the mound with an ERA of 3.86 over the season. Chicago starts with John Danks, who owns a 4.48 ERA on the season.  Kuroda is 1-3 on the road while Danks is 1-3 at home. Kuroda struggled in his last attempt against the Oakand A’s in which he game up five earned runs in six innings leading to a 5-4 loss. Danks pulled out a win in his last outing allowing only one run over seven innings of play.

Although the last three games between these two were played in LA, the White Sox won the series by taking two of three in June 2008.

Look for the road bats of the Dodgers to out-swing the home bats of the White Sox in this interleague matchup on Tuesday.

Free Pick: Dodgers +103

Trevor Cahill gives the Athletics the advantage on the mound Monday against the Giants' Jonathan Sanchez.  Back Oakland as the home favorites tonight vs. San Francisco.

The San Francisco Giants are in second place in the NL West, 8-games back of the Dodgers. The Giants have been decent this year with their 37-31 record and they are +9 in run differential.

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While the A's are in dead last in the AL West, they are actually closer to the first-place LA Angels (7 games) then the Giants are to the Dodgers.

Jonathan Sanchez starts for the Giants and its been a rough season for the southpaw. Sanchez is 2-7 on the year with a 5.43 ERA including a 0-3 mark in his last three starts with a 7.71 era.

The A's Trevor Cahill has been good with a 4-5 mark and nice 3.89 ERA. Unlike Sanchez, Cahill is 2-0 in his last three starts with a nifty 2.45 era.

Two pitchers here heading in opposite directions. We'll take the home club and bragging rights for the East side of the Bay.

Free Pick: Athletics -140

Matt Palmer has done a fine job for the Angels this season, but on Monday he and the Halos run into the buzzsaw known as the streaking Colorado Rockies.

The Colorado Rockies open a three-game series with the Angels when they send Aaron Cook to the hill in Anaheim Monday night.

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Cook enters tonight's fray with a sharp 3-1 record in his last four road team starts with a 1.86 ERA, issuing four walks against 16 strikeouts in those games. He has also won his only other start in this park against the Halos in interleague play back in 2006.

Angels righthander Matt Palmer has been a money machine with the Halos 8-1 in his nine starts.  But his 35/22 strikeout-to-walk ratio is problematic and the Rockies come in the hottest team in the major leagues right now with 16 wins in their last 17 games.

With the Angels in off a big series with their intercity rival Dodgers, we'll back Cook and the Rockies here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Colorado with Cook.

Free Pick: Rockies +110

Mother Nature didn't cooperate with the PGA this past weekend, and there's a good chance she won't cooperate with the Cardinals and Mets this week at Citi Field.
When I was looking ahead on the MLB schedule last week and saw the Cardinals and Mets squaring off in the lone NL-only series to start Week 12, I got excited about seeing a matchup of their two aces, Chris Carpenter (5-4, 1.53) for St. Louis and New York's Johan Santana (8-6, 3.22).  Sure enough, the pair do meet head-to-head...but not until Game 4 of the series on Thursday afternoon.

That's right Tony, all you need to do is win two of the first three games.

That game will still be a good one and part of what is shaping up to be a Thursday that also is slated to include a few other intriguing pitching battles that includes Andy Pettitte and Derek Lowe meeting in the finale of the Yankees, Braves series and John Smoltz making his season and Red Sox debut in DC against the Nats' young Jordan Zimmermann.

The -120 line on the Cardinals for the series price (Mets +100 at TheGreek) is what I'm after here, and not having to include the Carpenter, Santana contest is actually a good thing since that will be a tough one to handicap.  That doesn't mean there aren't some tough matchups to cap still, however, and the real bad news is the weather report makes it rather iffy on this series having action.  More on that later.

The series opens at Citi Field on Monday night with Todd Wellemeyer (8-6, 5.36) on the mound for St. Louis opposite New York's Tim Redding (1-5, 6.27).  Tuesday's game pits Joel Pineiro (5-8, 3.76) against Livan Hernandez (7-6, 4.18) and Wednesday finds Brad Thompson (3-1, 3.89) slated for the Cardinals against the Mets' Fernando Nieve (2-0, 1.84).

On the surface it would seem an obvious notion to give Wellemeyer and the Cards and edge on Monday, with Tuesday's initial nod going to Livan Hernandez.  That would make the Thompson-Nieve matchup the series breaker, and a tough one to get a handle on with both arms having just six starts under their belts between them.

Thompson is in the St. Louis starting mix in place of Lohse and has recorded a nice 3.63 in his four trips to the mound to begin a game.  Nieve is in the Mets' rotation for John Maine and has been a very pleasant surprise with New York winning both of his starts.

The two teams are evenly matched in terms of scoring with the Mets sixth in the NL at 4.62 RPG and the Cards just ahead at 4.65 per contest.  That doesn't mean these are similar offenses though.  St. Louis is relying on the long ball this year, fourth in the National League with 76 HR and 11th in steals with 35.  New York ranks near the bottom in homers with just 43 as they jockey for the cellar in that category with the Giants and Pirates.  The Mets are first in steals by a wide margin with 70, and second in on-base (.356) to the Cards' .330 which is 10th.

New York's running game will be tested in this series by St. Louis catchers Yadier Molina and Jason LaRue.  Teams have attempted just 25 steals against the Cardinals this season, and Redbird backstops have caught 11 of those (44%).  Molina has caught nine of 21 while LaRue has nailed two of four would-be thieves.  Of LaRue's nine starts this year, seven have come with Wellemeyer on the mound, so look for that possible in Monday's series opener.

St. Louis has the edge on the mound where they are third in the NL in ERA (3.84) and total runs allowed, giving up about 0.40 fewer runs per game than New York.  As far as closers go, the Mets have the bigger name in Francisco Rodriguez, but don't overlook the job that the Cardinals, Ryan Franklin has done this year.  Franklin has done a much better job than Rodriguez when it comes to issuing free passes in 2009, walking just five in 27 innings while K-Rod has walked 17 in 33.2 IP.

Thursday's matchup is a dandy.

Anyone that was paying attention to the US Open this past weekend at Bethpage knows about the wet weather in the NYC area.  That course is some 22 miles or so almost due west from Citi Field in Queens where rain interrupted play between the Mets and Rays over the weekend.  Monday's forecast calls for a 50% chance of rain tapering just a bit to 40% on Monday night.  Winds are currently listed for between 10-20 MPH out of the North (in from center/left-center).

There is at least a 30% chance of rain for Tuesday through Thursday as well.  If any games is rained out, your guess is as good as mine as to when they would try to make it up.  The two teams are scheduled to meet again in New York for a two-game set on Aug 4-5, but there's a hitch in trying to make them up then.  The Aug 5 game is a 12:10 ET start and the Mets have to fly out after that across the Lower 48 to San Diego for a series against the Padres starting on Aug 6.  So if they decide to make one up then it would have to be a day-night doubleheader on Aug 4.

The most sensible time to play the make-up would be this Thursday night after the regularly scheduled afternoon game.  The Mets stay at home this weekend to meet the Yankees while St. Louis heads home to open their last interleague match against the Twins.  If they were to play it after the regular Thursday game, it could throw the pitching matchups off that day so stay tuned.

I still like the Cards for the series, at least the first three games and assuming they all go off as planned.  St. Louis comes in playing much better than New York recently and feel they have the edge on offense with the pitching, both the matchups and the bullpens, pretty much a wash.  I'll play St. Louis with a series wager and if Wellemeyer can put the Cards ahead on Monday will consider hedging the series bet on Tuesday with a small play on Quarter Pounder (aka, Livan Hernandez).

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Rained out in Atlanta earlier this month, the Cubs and Braves forfeit their day off on Monday to make up that June 4 game.  Chicago comes in with a four-game win streak, one short of their season best, and climbing to within 2½ games of the Cardinals who sit in front of the NL Central.  Atlanta is off three-straight series defeats, the most recent in Boston, and has dropped eight of their last 11.

Just when you thought the Chicago Cubs were destined to play .500 baseball for the duration of the season, they’ve heated up for bettors.

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After dropping five of six games coming off a three-game series with the Minnesota Twins last week, the Cubs (34-31, -4.97 units) have cashed four in a row against the moneyline. The hot streak up the MLB moneylist has lifted Chicago to within 2.5 games of the first-place St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. If the Cubs can get the payday in their make-up game with the Atlanta Braves (32-36, -10.07 units) on Monday night, they’ll have tied their longest winning stand of the season.

The teams split the first two games of their scheduled three-game set at Turner Field earlier this month, but the finale was postponed due to rain. The Braves won the opener 6-5 as -121 favorites on Chipper Jones’ run-scoring single in the bottom of the 12th inning, and the payday was the first against the Cubs in six tries. Including Chicago’s (+122) 3-2 victory over Atlanta the following night, the Cubs have taken seven of their last eight against the moneyline over the Braves dating back to last season.

Chicago outscored Atlanta 49-18 in the six-game sweep last season, including 29-9 at Turner Field. The Cubs hand the ball to Ryan Dempster (4-4, 3.92 ERA) on Monday night, with Lou Piniella hoping his offense can score some runs for the righthander. Just 5-9 against the moneyline in Dempster’s starts this season, Chicago is 0-3 in his last three outings despite his 1.89 ERA. Under bettors have cashed in on the Cubs’ inability to put runs on the board in Dempster’s starts, with the North Siders 0-3 O/U in the three games.  The total for this one has been set at 8 with the Under drawing the extra bit of chalk.

The Cubbies were listed as +120 underdogs for the contest at most sportsbooks through Sunday night, although they were available at +131 at one outlet. Oddsmakers had the Braves in the range of -133 to -140 on the moneyline with Javier Vazquez (4-6, 3.41 ERA) grabbing the rosin for Atlanta.

Vazquez has been dealt a similar fate as Dempster over his last three trips to the bump. Tied for the NL lead in strikeouts with the San Francisco Giants’ Tim Lincecum, Vazquez has received only eight runs of support over his last five starts. The Braves are 0-5 in those five games, and have played under the number in the last three games with Vazquez on the mound.

Atlanta has lost six of its last eight games, including two of three over the weekend in its three-game series at Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox. Nick Green’s walk-off home run off Braves reliever Jeff Bennett in the bottom of the ninth inning lifted Boston to cash on Sunday afternoon, as Atlanta was unable to reward their backers as +115 pups.

Is it too late to jump on the Rockies bandwagon?  Colorado is as hot as they were in September 2007 and the Angels look to cool them off in Anaheim starting Monday Night.

From a gambling perspective, streaks can be frustrating. Take the Colorado Rockies. They’re 16-1 in their last 17 games. If you’ve sided with the Rocks during the entire length of their hot streak, you’ve made some nice money.

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However for those of us who’ve missed the streak and only now are considering jumping on the Rockies bandwagon, we’re faced with the question: Am I too late?

The books caught on to this streak about a week ago. The vigs are getting increasingly higher so the cost of backing Colorado is becoming more expensive with each passing win. I’m here to tell you to get off the bandwagon. The Rockies will lose and it’s going to be tonight, but then again…

The Angels send Matt “Money” Palmer to the mound in the opener of the three-game interleague series. Palmer, a 30-year old rookie, was called up in April to make a couple of spot starts until the Angels could get some guys healthy like John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar. All Palmer has done is go 6-0 and is the No. 1 pitcher in baseball from a cash standpoint. Anaheim is 8-1 in Palmers starts netting an MLB-best $1,040. Palmer has been better than Josh Johnson, Tim Wakefield, Jason Marquis and Matt Cain. Matt “Freaking” Palmer is the No. 1 cash cow in MLB. Who would have thunk it?

While the Angels haven’t been quite as hot as the Rockies they’ve been tough over the past two weeks going 8-2 while improving their interleague record to 9-3.

Meanwhile Colorado has been playing incredible baseball. On June 3 they were 12 games below .500 and are now 36-33 heading into tonights tilt at the Big A. Give much of the credit for the Rockies turnaround to new manager Jim Tracy. Not only is Trace one of the good guys in baseball, he’s one heck of a manager. He got a raw deal in Los Angeles a few years ago so it’s nice to see someone debunk the old adage, “Nice guys finish last.”

Since taking over when Clint Hurdle was fired, Tracy has guided Colorado to an 18-5 record. Tracy has taken an unhappy and unproductive team and turned them around, not to mention saving Colorado’s season in the process.

Aaron Cook gets the start tonight for the Rockies as he goes for his fourth straight win. Cook is 6-3 with a 4.23 ERA. Cook has made just one career start against the Angels and that was three years ago. The Angels are coming off a weekend series against the Dodgers in which they swung the bats pretty well on Friday night but cooled off in the final two games (both losses) against Jeff Weaver and Clayton Kershaw.

The Angels are 18-14 in the OC this season, so playing under the Big A hasn’t proven to that much of an advantage. Thanks to their blistering streak, Colorado is 19-18 on the road and 8-0 in their last eight outings. The Angels are 8-2 in their last 10 games when favored. Palmer and Los Halos are anywhere from -116 to -130 tonight. The total is 9/-118 at my book and that’s the angle I’ll be looking at tonight.

I still don’t know what to do about this damn streak. Should I jump on the Rockies bandwagon tonight? I can get them at a nice price as a road dog. Or is this the night the magic runs out?  Do I take the MLB money man Palmer or do I ride the Rockie wave one more time? Either way tonight figures to be a great start to what should be one heck of a series in Anaheim.

Colorado is as hot as they come in the majors right now with 16 wins in their last 17 games, but the Angels will knock the Rockies down on Monday night in Anaheim.

Our Monday night MLB interleague selection is on the Los Angeles Angels at home over the Colorado Rockies.

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The two hottest teams in Major League Baseball meet in what should be a very interesting three-game series.  Colorado is the hotter of the two, as the Rockies are in the midst of a 16-1 stretch.  But despite this recent run of success the edge tonight has to go to the Angels, the main reason being their starter Matt Palmer, aka Mr. Clutch.

After going winless (0-2) as a starter for the Giants in 2008, his rookie season, Palmer is unbeaten this year at 6-0, making him undefeated in his career as an AL starter.  In his last game (against his former club, San Francisco), Palmer didn't get a decision but the Angels got the victory against last year's NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum.

Tonight's mound opponent isn't as good as Lincecum, so I expect the Angels to handle Aaron Cook despite the Rockies' current hot streak.  More telling than their recent 16-1 tear is the fact that the Rockies are 2-7 in their last nine games against the Angels.  Take Palmer and Los Angeles.

Free Pick: Angels +100

Surprisingly, the Blue Jays are just 8-23 in their last 31 interleague games vs. teams with losing records, and true to form, they have lost the first two games of this series. Marts has pitched well for Washington, so go Nationals.

This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems, and since the Washington Nationals faced a left-handed starter last night, this will benefit them facing lefty starter Ricky Romero (3-3, 3.73) of the Toronto Blue Jays.

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Shairon Martis (5-1, 4.76 ERA) has pitched solid for the Nationals with an ERA of just 2.00 over his last 3 starts and the Nationals are 4-1 in Martis' last five starts with four days rest. The Nationals are 5-1 in their last six interleague home games against a team with a winning record and the Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite.

The Jays are just 8-23 in their last 31 interleague road games against a team with a losing record and they are just 1-4 in their last five games after a loss. The Nationals bullpen has looked solid in this series while the Blue Jays bullpen has needs and could be in trouble if Romero struggles early on.

Take the Washington Nationals on Sunday afternoon.

Free Pick: Nationals +108

Mark Buehrle has cooled off since a hot start while Aaron Harang is a serous Comeback Player of the Year candidate. With Harang 6-0 in interleague play, take the Reds at home.

The Chicago White Sox and Cincinnati Reds take to the diamond for the third and deciding game in their three-game interleague weekend set on Sunday afternoon at Great American Ballpark.

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The Reds opened the series by winning game one on Friday night 4-3 and the boys from the south side of Chicago took game two on Saturday, winning a high scoring affair 10-8.

The Sox will send left-hander Mark Buehrle to the bump with his record of 2-1 and ERA of 4.64 on the road this season. Buehrle has struggled in his last three outings posting a record of 0-1 and an ERA of 5.76. Chicago is 1-2 over that three-game span behind Buehrle. More bad news for the Sox as the Reds are 4-1 their last five when facing a left-handed starter during interleague action.

Cincinnati will send Aaron Harang to the hill for Sunday’s game he has an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 1.200 when he takes the mound at Great American this season. Harang is 4-2 and the Reds are 5-2 when he starts at home and they are counting on another solid performance from the right-hander today.

Over his last three outings Harang’s record is only 0-1 but he has an ERA of 1.53 and the Reds are 2-1 in those three starts. Cincinnati is a perfect 6-0 in Harang’s last six starts in interleague action and 4-0 in his last four home starts overall.

Chicago is active in a MLB System that tells us to play against American League road teams with a batting average of .265 or worse facing a National League starter who’s ERA is 3.70 or better on the season with a team batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games. Since 1997 this system has posted a record of 41-8 for 83 percent winners and a profit of +28.7 units.

We are going to lay the short price with the Reds on Sunday as they get the win and take the series from the White Sox at Great American Ballpark.

Graded Selection:  Cincinnati Reds 3 Chicago White Sox 1

Free Pick: Reds -116

Both offenses are hitting on all cylinders and that makes it an easy decision to play the Over on Saturday when the Detroit Tigers host the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Brewers are conjuring up memories of the famous “Harvey’s Wallbangers” from the 1980’s. Milwaukee managed just four runs last night in a rain shortened game  against the Tigers, but before that they were literally knocking the cover off the ball.

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With Prince Fielder leading the way, the Brewers scored 30 runs on 40 hits in sweeping a three-game set in Cleveland against the Indians. Fielder is hitting .474 with two home runs and 12 RBI over the past four games.

This afternoon Milwaukee will face rookie Alfredo Figaro who is making his MLB debut despite having never pitched above Double-A. He was promoted when the D-Train, Dontrelle Willis, was derailed by anxiety issues. Even Tigers manager Jim Leyland isn’t sure what to expect from Figaro but says the rookie has the chops.

Dave Bush will be throwing for the Brewers and Milwaukee can only hope they see “vintage Bush” and not the 2009 model that has compiled 3-3 record with an ERA of 5.31. The numbers get worse. Bush, is 0-3 with an 8.64 ERA in his last five starts and is 0-1 with an 11.05 ERA against the Tigers.

Milwaukee has topped the total in their last five games while Detroit is 4-2 to the Over in their last six outings. Neither team lacks for power. Milwaukee is seventh in baseball with 78 roundtrippers while Detroit ranks 10th in the same category with 75 homeruns. Both teams have almost identical RPG totals with the Tigers at 4.85 and the Brew Crew ever so slightly behind at 4.81.

Miwaukee’s bullpen is good ranking seventh in MLB with an ERA of 3.56 and a 14-8 record. On the flip side, Detroit’s pen is ranked 23rd in all of baseball with an ERA of 4.53. Look for both the rookie Figaro and the veteran Bush to struggle. Both teams have enough “boppers” to make this an easy Over.

Free Pick: Brewers-Tigers Over 10 (-110)

Derek Lowe returns to Fenway for the first time since helping the Red Sox to the '04 World Series to face Josh Beckett as Atlanta meets Boston in interleague play.

Our Saturday night MLB interleague selection is on the Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox going over the total at Fenway Park.

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Veteran Derek Lowe will be making a homecoming of sorts when he pitches this game in Fenway, as it will be his first performance in that venue since he played a key role for Boston in the 2004 postseason march to their first World Series title in almost a century. It should be a very interesting return for Lowe because he comes into this game off his worst start of the season, an 11-2 drubbing the Braves took at the hands of the Orioles back on June 14 when Lowe failed to make it out of the third inning.

Since Lowe is a sinkerball specialist, it's safe to say that his ball wasn't sinking very effectively on that occasion and if he has the same problem tonight it will be an even shorter outing for him. He will face Josh Beckett who, like Lowe, has also had a successful season but comes into this game off a very ineffective start against the Phillies in which he gave up six earned runs on 11 hits in just six innings. It was his first loss since April, but there's no telling how Beckett will bounce back from that one.

The Braves beefed up the middle of their lineup in a big way when they acquired Nate McLouth from the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 3 for three prospects. McLouth fills a big hole in the heart of the order and it is beginning to show for Atlanta on the scoreboard. Take the Over.

Free Pick: Braves-Red Sox Over 8½ (-109)

Lies, damned lies and statistics are purported to be the three types of untruths in the world, and in the world of baseball there are plenty of statistics to misrepresent the truth.

Lollygaggers!

One of the great misinterpretations of baseball’s Moneyball age is that it’s all about super-sized players hitting monster home runs. True, the brand of small-ball preferred by traditionalists has been picked apart with glee by the seamhead community, where scrappy is just another word for unproductive. But the smart ones know that you can’t have a five-tool player without running, catching and throwing.

The question for seamheads and handicappers alike is how to evaluate these precious commodities. It’s fairly simple on offense; stolen bases are part of the boxscore, and thanks to the work of Bill James, we know that a success rate of about 70 percent is required to make the effort worth the risk of getting caught stealing. That means a team like the Seattle Mariners only derives a small benefit from Ichiro’s thievery at 10-of-14 (71.4 percent).

Ichiro’s ability to leg out infield singles is more important to Seattle’s success, which again can be seen in the boxscore using his on-base percentage (.396 at press time). But this is still one base at a time we’re talking about. Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder (.418 OBP) doesn’t have to have great wheels when he’s circling the bases, which he’s already done 15 times this year. Maybe speed isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.

Make the switch to defense, and you’ll soon discover differently. Statisticians are still trying to figure out how to put a number on the value of run prevention. In my opinion, it’s a red herring: you can only quantify runs scored, not runs prevented. The existing metrics for defense (fielding percentage, UZR, FRAR) do a very poor job of telling us how just how good a fielder Ichiro is. But watch a game, and you’ll see his speed, his route selection and his arm strength in full display.

Ay, there’s the rub. Although advanced statistics have made baseball a potentially lucrative betting sport (if you interpret the numbers correctly), a truly sharp handicapper will also develop a scout’s appreciation for the art of defense. The real lesson of Moneyball is the same as that of value-based handicapping: Exploit the difference between perceived and real value. Now that every general manager and his dog pay attention to stats like OBP, sharps are looking for that difference by shining their light on defense.

That means doing a lot of research. Scouting reports are readily available on every player on every team, thanks to the power of the search engine. Is it really worth all the legwork to profile hundreds of players this way? Defense is still a distant third to pitching and hitting when it comes to prioritizing your research time. But the baseball experts have already done a lot of the work for you by posting those scouting reports. And I’ll put in my two cents by singling out five defensively undervalued teams who are worth a second look against the betting odds.

Milwaukee Brewers
Mike Cameron is one of the league’s great center fielders. J.J. Hardy and Bill Hall are vacuuming up the left side of the infield, while Ryan Braun has found a home in left.

Cincinnati Reds
Willy Tavares (.283 OBP) can’t hit for beans, but he can motor in center. Jay Bruce in right and Brandon Phillips at second base both make life much easier for Reds pitchers.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Even without Nate McClouth, this low-profile team is 2.76 units in the black thanks in part to the stellar defense of Freddy Sanchez at second and Andy LaRoche at third.

Texas Rangers
They’ll get some pitchers one of these days. In the meantime, you won’t find many better double-play combos than SS Elvis Andrus and 2B Ian Kinsler. Nelson Cruz has a howitzer for an arm in right.

Detroit Tigers
Catcher Gerald Laird has thrown out 12 of 32 would-be base stealers. Former catcher Brandon Inge can flash the leather at the hot corner, and Curtis Granderson could track down a gazelle in center.

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Livan Hernandez and the Mets at a plus-price vs. Jason Berken and the O's?  Make your play on New York this evening when they close out their series in Baltimore.

The New York Mets wrap up their three-game visit to Baltimore tonight when Livan Hernandez takes on Jason Berken and the Orioles at Camden Yards.

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Hernandez enters tonight's contest with more wins in interleague play (19) than any active pticher in the majors. In his last three starts against the Orioles, the Cuban righthander had helped pitch his teams to win in all three contests.

Meanwhile, Berken checks in at 0-3 with an 8.63 ERA in his last three outings. Baltimore has dropped his last two starts at home. With that, look for the Birds to drop to 3-13 at home on Thursdays in June here tonight.

Free Pick: Mets +109

With Joe Blanton on the mound for the home team and facing Brad Mills for Toronto, the Philadelphia Phillies should easily avoid being swept in this three-game set.

The Phillies have the superior pitcher on the mound here Thursday afternoon with Joe Blanton (4-3, 5.17 ERA) who is 2-0 with an ERA of just 2.00 over his last four starts. The Jays send Brad Mills to the mound who will make his major league debut in a hitter's ball park against a very potent Phillies lineup that has lots of power.

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Mills was 1-8 with a 4.48 ERA over 13 starts with Triple-A Las Vegas and I do not see his MLB debut lasting long in Philadelphia today. The Jays are just 1-7 in their last eight games in Game 3 of a series and they are just 0-5 in their last five interleague games when facing a righthanded starter.

The Phillies are 9-1 in Blanton's last 10 starts after a team loss in their previous game, and the Phillies are 20-8 in their last 28 games against a lefty starter. Take Philadelphia to avoid the sweep at home as on Thursday afternoon.

Free Pick: Phillies -155

Both teams came into this series with nice win streaks and have split the first two games.  Now comes the rubber match at Coors between the Rockies and Rays.

Two of baseball’s hottest teams square off in the Mile High city as the the Rockies host the Devil Rays in the series finale at Coors Field. Colorado has won 12 of 13 games while Tampa Bay has taken six of its last seven and are 12-5 over their past 17 outings.

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Both teams are getting it down offensively. The Rays lead the majors with 382 runs and boast a lineup of bashers from Carlos Peña and Evan Longoria to Ben Zobrist and B.J. Upton. Carl Crawford has been the table setter all season long hitting .314.

The Rockies' improvement at the plate and on the mound has moved them to within sniffing distance of the wild card race in the National League.

Since Jim Tracy replaced Clint Hurdle as manager on May 29, the Rockies are averaging over six runs per game and hitting just under .300 as a team (.298). Familiar names and faces like Todd Helton, Brad Hawpe and Ian Stewart have led the charge. Hawpe is having an all-star season. He’s hitting .347 with 47 RBI.

Matt Garza gets the start today for the Rays and while he’s 4-4 with a respectable 3.63 ERA, he’s struggled in his last two starts failing to make it out of the sixth inning. Opposing Garza will be Ubaldo Jimenez who is a big reason why the Colorado pitching staff has done an about face.  The Rockies have been outstanding during their streak posting a 3.31 ERA.

Jimenez has been a big part of that success. While Garza has been off in his last two starts, Jimenez has won two straight games including his second career complete game. Overall he is 5-6 with a 3.92 ERA. MLB scouts will tell you he’s got what it takes to become a top-tier pitcher but only time will tell if he can live up to expectations. The righthander, who has battled problems with control and efficiency in the past, has thrown 17 innings while winning his last two starts, pitching a complete game in Friday's 6-4 win over Seattle.

In what is virtually a “pick ‘em” game, bettors have a couple of ways to go here. Ride the home team that’s streaking to a tune of 12-1 or favor the AL squad that scored 12 runs on Tuesday night. Keep in mind Colorado is 17-9-1 to the Over at home this season but both the Rocks and the Rays are just 2-3 to the high side in their last five games.

This is one of the toughest games on the board to cap. I still think that despite Colorado’s 12-1 streak, Tampa Bay is the better team and should take the rubber match of this three-game series.

One final note: Jimenez is just 1-3 in day games with an ERA of 5.34. He’s allowed 29 hits in 28.2 innings. If he’s not spot on with his control today, the Rays and their power-packed lineup will make him pay. This figures to be one of those days where runs, not pitching, will be at a premium. Take the balls out of the humidor and let’s get ready to go.

Looking for offense today?  The Rays and Rockies hook up in an afternoon contest at Coors Field in Colorado that should provide plenty of runs from both teams.

Our Thursday afternoon MLB selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays and Colorado Rockies going over the total at Coors Field in Denver.

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Who's the most underrated starter in the National League?  It just might be tonight's Colorado starter, righthander Ubaldo Jimenez.  On a team that has an overall record of 31-33, Jimenez is 6-4 with a 3.92 ERA and 69 strikeouts in 82+ innings.

In his last start, the 25-year old Dominican threw just his second career complete game in beating Seattle at home.  It hasn't hurt that Jimenez has gotten very strong run support in most of his starts, especially at home.  In fact, in his five starts at Coors Field, Jimenez has gotten an incredible 40 runs of support from his teammates.

This game is a very interesting matchup because it features the two surprise teams that made it to the World Series the last two seasons.  This is the first series between these two since 2007, and they're picking up where they left off which means plenty of runs.

In the 2007 series, all of the games went comfortably over the total and that pattern held up in the first game of this series as the two teams scored 16 runs before settling down a bit in the game last night and only plating eight runs.

Rays starter Matt Garza has had a good season, but the Rays may be a little concerned because Garza has not gotten past the sixth inning in either of his last two starts and Coors Field is a particularly tough place if that were to happen again this afternoon.  Take the Over.

Free Pick: Rays-Rockies Over 9 (-120)

Minnesota is too tough at home to allow Pittsburgh to take a second straight at the Metrodome.  Take the Twins in this Thursday matinee vs. the Pirates.

Wednesday’s interleague matinee will decide this three-game set as each team has won a game by the score of 8-2.  Wonder what the odds on Game 3 ending with the same final score?

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The Pirates will send Zach Duke to the bump with his 2-2 road record and ERA of 3.51, though in his six starts on the highway this season his team has only managed a record of 2-4. Over his last three outings he has posted a record of 2-1 with a 4.29 ERA, with the two wins coming at home and the one loss coming on the road.

The Pirates are 14-22 on the highway this season and 18-37 as a road underdog. Their record is much the same when facing teams from the American League during interleague play going 18-41 their last 59 games. When Duke takes the hill on the road and is installed as an underdog of +150 or less, the Pirates have only won three times out of their last 21, and Duke is only 3-11 his last 14 when pitching on four days rest.

The Twins have been a formidable opponent during interleague play posting a record of 45-13 their last 58 games against the NL. Much of that winning record was built facing foes from the National League Central with the Twins going 24-7 their last 31 against those teams. Minnesota will hang their hopes on righthander Nick Blackburn who is 2-0 at home this season with an ERA of 3.06; the Twins are 4-1 in his five home starts this year.

In Blackburn’s last three trips to the bump he is 1-0 with an ERA of 2.57 and the Twins are only 1-2 in those three starts, but all three came on the road. The Twins are 49-16 when installed as home favorite and a perfect 5-0 the last five at home as the favorite with Blackburn on the hill.

Minnesota has also found success when facing lefthanders during interleague play posting a record of 12-4 their last 16 in this situation. The Twins are 8-1 (+8.5) versus an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last two seasons while Pittsburgh is 7-28 (-18.8) versus an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better since 1997.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Twins win over the Pirates in today’s matchup by 1.8 runs and we also find support with our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index that has the Twins starter and bullpen 0.9 runs better than the Pirates starter and bullpen. Finally we have a MLB System that is active for today’s contest and it tells us to Play On MLB AL home teams with a batting average of .265 to .279 against a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better during the month of June, 34-12 (+22.0 Units) for 73.9 percent winners over the last five seasons and 4-2 (+1.9 units) already this season.

With significant fundamental, situational and technical support we will lay the chalk with the host here as the Twins take game three and the series from the Pirates on Thursday afternoon at the Metrodome.

Projected Final Score: Minnesota-3 Pittsburgh-1

Free Pick: Twins -145

After bouncing around with four teams the past six seasons, veteran righthander Javier Vazquez looks to have found a home with the Atlanta Braves.

Javier Vazquez, remember him? He’s the same guy who has bounced around teams like a pinball. Vazquez hit his high water mark in 2001 when he won 16 with Washington. He parlayed his success into a deal with the Yankees where he posted 14 victories. He moved on to Arizona and then Chicago and has surfaced again in Atlanta.

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After going 12-16 for the White Sox with an ERA of 4.67, many scouts thought that Vazquez’ best days were behind him. But so far in Atlanta he’s proving the skeptics wrong.

Vazquez might be the best four-win pitcher in baseball this season. He’s 4-5 with a 3.31 and leads the NL in strikeouts with 105. He’s been magnificent over his last three starts posting an ERA of 1.77. He’s also been rock solid against Cincinnati going 3-0 including a victory in April.

The Reds will counter with Micah Owings who might be the only weak link in one of the strongest (and youngest) starting rotations in the league. Owings is 3-7 with an ERA of 4.64. He’s garnered more headlines for his hitting than his pitching prowess so far in his career.

While Cincinnati is just 32-32 overall they own one of the best home records in baseball at 19-9.

Jay Bruce (15 HR) is developing into the slugger that everyone expected. Brandon Phillips continues to impress by leading the team in batting average (.273) and runs batted in with 43. The Reds pitching staff is ranked fifth in all of baseball with a 3.86 ERA and Cincinnati relievers are also ranked fifth in MLB with a pen ERA of 3.39.

Atlanta’s made plenty of headlines already this season. They botched the release of future Hall-of-Famer Tom Glavine and made a questionable free-agent signing of injury prone Garrett Anderson. On the plus side they have arguably the top pitching prospect in the majors in Tommy Hansen. The Braves also swung a deal to get Nate McLouth from Pittsburgh. Combining his numbers, McClouth leads the Braves in home runs with 10 and RBI with 36.

The Braves took two out of three in the first series meeting with two of the games going Over the posted total. Neither team has distinguished itself in the totals department. Atlanta is 15-15 on the road while Cincinnati is 16-12 but the Over is 37-16-2 in the last 55 overall. 

The trends favor the Reds in this series. Atlanta is 2-8 in it’s last 10 at the Great American Ballpark and are 3-8 in the past 11 road outings. On the flip side, The Reds are 6-2 run in their last eight home games.

Both offenses are in the lower third of the MLB rankings. Atlanta is 18th with a team batting average of .257. The Reds are 27th at .244.  Remember the MLB commercials years ago with Glavine and Greg Maddux saying “Chicks Dig The Long Ball”? Well the “chicks” aren’t digging this Atlanta team which has hit only 48 all season. The Reds are slightly better with the power numbers hitting 68 on the year.

The Reds took the series opener last night recording a 7-2 victory. Tonight Vazquez and the Bravos are -145 road favorites with the total set at 8½.

Run lines can turn some heavy chalk into more palatable prices.  But with so many close, 1-run games, picking a blowout isn't always that easy to do.

Sometimes this game can appear to be all too easy, can it not?  Of course I’m talking about baseball run lines.  You might spot a perennial powerhouse with their ace going up against the Bad News Bears and their starting pitcher, Adam Lambert.  Well you’re no dummy!  Instead of eating the huge chalk, you ascertain that there is no way that the favored squad will not win by two or more runs, and play the run line to increase your winnings.

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Run line bettor's nightmare

Ah, if only it were always this simple.

Point in case – On Tuesday night the Yankees hosted the God-awful Washington Nationals.   Now I could’ve played the moneyline at -365, but why settle for that?  That’s some serious chalk.  Usually a run line will knock anywhere from 50-100 off of the favorite’s price.  But as luck would have it, I was able to grab a New York RL all they way down at -175 at Bet Jamaica.  Looks like an easy way to double my winnings to me!

But we all know that the books aren’t in the business of giving away easy money.  I’ll check back on my game later on.

The allure of magically turning a -120 favorite into a +170 payday can be strong.  Even more so if you win a few in a row.  But it is important to pick your moments.  No matter how big the discrepancy of talent on the field, it’s still taxing enough just trying to pick a winner, let alone a blowout.

You can see below for the 13 MLB teams with winning records, the percentage of one run victories they have been involved in.  Of course they probably were not favored for every one of those, but it can still give you a decent idea of just how many times the RL can beat you, even if the team wins the actual game.

• Dodgers 35%
• Mets 33%
• Angels 32%
• Rangers 31%
• Brewers 28%
• Tigers 27%
• Yankees 27%
• Blue Jays 26%
• Red Sox 26%
• Cardinals 23%
• Rays 23%
• Phillies 22%
• Reds 22%
• Giants 18%

I’m not sure what is more shocking – how high some of those numbers are, or the fact that the Giants have a winning record!  But as you can see, even your powerhouse teams only win by more than one run about two out of every three times.

Another stat that will make you think twice before pulling that run line trigger is total team scoring.  If you compare the most prolific teams to the most anemic, there is a difference of only two runs per game being put on the scoreboard (NYY 5.70, Sea 3.73).  That means that everyone in between is averaging pretty darn close within each other.  It all makes me wonder if it would just be wiser to play the other side of the run line.

Of course you can always play the RL the opposite way by playing the underdog who is now getting a run and a half to work with.  This can be smart at times, but will turn your +125 play into a -140 team real quick.  Most players are greedy (like me) and enjoy taking shots every so often at the big hit.  But through my experiences, playing the team getting the runs might not be as sexy a date, but will generally put out more often.

Thanks Ramiro Peña!

So why did I take the hated Yankees RL?  Well, it’s the highest scoring team with C.C. Sabathia on the mound against the woeful Nats, playing at home where pop flies turn into first row home runs.  Basically I completely ignored every statistic and warning that I just gave you.  So how did I do?

At one point Washington was actually winning the game 3-2.  It wasn’t Jeter or A-Rod or Teixeira who won the game for me.  Nope, it was Ramiro Peña getting just his fifth RBI of the year in the bottom of the 8th to get me the RL win 5-3.  Like I said, these bets are easy money.  Now, who’s next?

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David Price has a great future ahead of him for the Rays, but his control problems this season will hurt him today on the road against the Colorado Rockies and Aaron Cook.

The Rockies look to bounce back after having had their 11-game win streak snapped last night when they send Aaron Cook up against David Price and the Tampa Rays in Colorado.

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Price enters tonight's contest with wins in each of his last two starts despite the fact he has issued 11 walks against nine strikeouts in those efforts.  This will be the young lefthander's first interleague action, and it comes on the road in what is not exactly a pitcher-friendly environment.

Meanwhile, Cook enters in fine KW form with three walks and 13 strikeouts in his last three starts. With that, look for Cook to improve to 5-1 at home on Wednesdays here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Colorado with Cook versus Price.

Free Pick: Rockies -113

Their 11-game win streak snapped last night, Aaron Cook and the Rockies look to get back into the win column on Wednesday at home vs. the Rays.

I'm taking Colorado over Tampa Bay on Wednesday when the Rockies and Rays resume their series at Coors Field.

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The Rockies have come alive after finally getting rid of former manager Clint Hurdle whose teams had a total of three good weeks in seven years. Jim Tracy is 13-5 since taking over, including an 11-game winning streak. The Rockies average 6.9 runs per game against lefthanders at home.

Aaron Cook was inconsistent the first two months of the season, however, he has won his last two starts while allowing only two runs in 14 innings. David Price is a hot prospect for the Rays but he threw 105 pitches in only 4.1 innings his last time out and the lefty has walked 18 batters in just 24 innings. That doesn't bode well for someone making his first appearance at hitter-friendly Coors Field.

Tampa Bay is 14-19 on the road. Look for the rejuvenated Rockies to get another win on Wednesday night.

Free Pick: Rockies -112

It is not often that you can catch Johan Santana as an underdog, and given his 2.76 road ERA and his past successes in the Bronx, he oozes value here. Meanwhile, AJ Burnett couldn’t get out of the third inning in his last start. Go Mets.

This afternoon, Johan Santana (8-3 2.39 ERA) takes the mound for the New York Mets vs. AJ Burnett (4-3 4.89 ERA) and the New York Yankees.

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We love the value Santana is receiving given the fact he has been flawless in Yankee Stadium in the past. We know it's a new stadium this year but Johan should do just fine today. In his last five visits to the Bronx his team has won four of his five starts vs. New York. In over 33 innings in those five games he has given up just seven earned runs.

 

Last season with the Mets he faced the Yankees twice and finished 1-1 giving up seven earned runs with 13 strikeouts in 13 innings of work. He is facing a Yankee team who has been struggling vs. southpaws in their last 10 games batting just .183.

Santana has been rock solid on the road with a 2.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this year. He won his only game vs. an AL team holding the Red Sox to just 2 earned runs in seven innings of work in Fenway last month. We're catching nice value with the Mets ace against a Yankee team who has dropped four of their last five games.

Just four days ago AJ Burnett pitched 84 pitches in just 2.2 innings vs. the Red Sox. He was yanked after giving up five walks, three earned runs, and five hits. Oddsmakers have Burnett over valued in this spot today. The Yankees are 2-8 in their last 10 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record and the odds are stacked against them today.

The Mets are 8-2 in Santana’s last 10 starts on the highway. We'll back the Mets this afternoon to pick up the win in the subway series.

Free Pick: Mets +106

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Matt Cain is 8-1 with a 2.55 ERA this season, while Brett Anderson has a 2.84 ERA in day games this year. With both teams going Under regularly lately, go Under again this afternoon.

Not surprisingly, the first two games of the Bay Series between the Oakland Athletics and the San Francisco Giants have gone Under, and we expect more of the same tonight.

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Both of these teams are offensively challenged and both have decent pitching staffs, so these low scoring games are expected. Today, the Giants send Matt Cain to the hill, and has had some of the best stuff in the National League in recent years with very little to show for it. He has managed to go 8-1 this season though, finally getting mentioned among the elite, and he has his typically great 2.55 ERA in 77.2 innings over 12 starts.

Oakland starter Brett Anderson has mediocre overall numbers, but he has been remarkably better in his four afternoon starts, going 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA and a good 1.22 WHIP under the sunshine. The southpaw should be tough vs. a Giants lineup that has never faced them before, and that has struggled enough vs. left-handers that they have seen, batting just .235 against them in the last 10 games.

Finally, the Under is 15-5-1 in the last 21 Oakland games overall and 8-2-1 in the last 11 San Francisco games, and today should not be any different.  

Free Pick: Athletics, Giants Under 7½ (-110)

MLB second season" src="http://www.sbrforum.com/forum/Pictures/trophy-mlb.jpg"/> We finally know the eight teams in the MLB postseason after Colorado's win Monday night.  Can the Rockies keep it going or will the Cubs and Yankees come out on top?

Why not just declare Major League Baseball's 2007 Playoffs and World Series null and void, hand championship rings over to the Chicago Cubs and make bookmakers everywhere finally pay off futures on the erstwhile Windy City losers?

Heck, even the crosstown neighbor sad-sack White Sox claimed a World Championship in 2005, proving miracles happen on 35th Street as well as 34th. And it only took the Southsiders 88 years between (legitimate) tiaras; Northsiders have been dry for 99.

Of course the Colorado Rockies might have something to say about any such cancellation, following what they've been through the last few weeks just to qualify for the post-season, their first trip since 1995. The Mile High City citizens, winners of 13 of their last 14 games, capped a stunning three-run rally in the bottom of the 13th inning Monday to beat San Diego 9-8 and claim the National League's Wild Card berth.

The Rockies open against National League East Division winner Philadelphia in Game 1 of the divisional plaoffs on Thursday.

The Cubs first travel West to face the Diamondbacks in a match between winners of the loop's Central and West Division champions. The Wednesday night game will feature righthanders Carlos Zambrano of Chicago and Brandon Webb of Arizona.

Bodog.com didn't have numbers posted early Tuesday morning, but Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which makes lines for Nevada books, released the D-Backs as a minus $1.25 favorite and the total at 7½.

Professional Handicappers League member Bill Fishman rates the American League as far superior and gives it the overall edge.

"Pitching in the National League is weak and it doesn't have an offense," Fishman said.

"Cleveland will give the Yankees all they can handle and Boston wins in four. The NL it is up for grabs and I feel the Cubs have a real shot. If they get pitching out of Zambrano, (Ted Lily) Lilly and Co., they could really compete with offense and defense."

That's the series everyone has an opinion on that and sentiment swings toward the long-barren Cubs and their loyal fans.

The last time the Wrigleyites advanced, a controversial incident cost them a flag, almost as if there really is a Billy Goat Sianis jinx cast many moons ago.

While Colorado's comeback against the Padres still was being dissected Monday night, folks had had a couple days to digest the prospect of a Cubs pennant and world title. PHL member Jimmy Boyd gives Arizona a Round 1 edge over Chicago because there's a good chance Webb will get two starts if it goes the distance.

"The Cubs are the more talented team all in all," Boyd said. "Not too many teams have an Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. (Manager) Lou Piniella gives Chicago the experience of having won the big one before; the Cubs barely got into the postseason, though."

Seasoned sports gamblers would insist Piniella's ascension to top step in the Cubs dugout had a lot to do with the whole scheme of things.

LVSC oddsmaker Ken White notes that he sent out early Cubs futures, dating back a year ago, at 75/1, but numbers dropped drastically when Piniella took over.

"They went down to like 30 or 35/1, overnight and they've been dropping since," White said.

Sin City bet shops had the Cubs in a 3/1 range through much of the late season.

"I don't think you'll find a lot of books getting hurt at the really long futures," White continued.

The oddsmaker dubbed Chicago and Boston as the two favorites to win the World Series, saying he'd peg the Cubs at 6/1 and Red Sox at 5/1.

Boyd gives Boston a slight edge in its series against the Los Angeles Angels, which also begins Wednesday. Josh Beckett will be on the mound for the Red Sox and John Lackey for the Angels.

"If the Angels are going to win this series, they are going to have to do it on the mound which has been their bread and butter all season long." Boyd said. "The Sox did pitch better, defend better, and score more than LA this season, but the Angels' aggressiveness on the bases makes them a tough out in any series, especially a short five-gamer.

"The Red Sox went from one of the best starting rotations in the league to one of the worst in just one season and a turnaround came with it. If Manny can be effective despite his strained oblique, the Red Sox should have the advantage at home."