Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton will be the site for tonight's season opener between the Eskimos and Winnipeg Blue Bombers, with the home team the play to make.

Over the past several seasons, the cogs that made the Blue Bombers go were QB Kevin Glenn, RB Charles Roberts and WR Milt Stegall. But Glenn (free agency), Blink (trade), and Uncle Milt (retired) have all moved on from Winnipeg, and the team is forced to start anew.

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The new wave of Blue Bombers will be headed up by QB Stefan LeFors who backed up QB Ricky Ray in Edmonton the last two seasons. There's still a big question mark about how well LeFors, a University of Louisville product, can do at this level. He wasn't even good enough to be the second string man last season, as Jason Maas took that responsibility. As a result LeFors only threw four passes all season, one of which was picked off.

Running back Fred Reid showed some flashes last season, but he isn't among the best backs the league has to offer. If there is one bright spot for the Bombers it's at wide receiver where Derick Armstrong, Terrence Edwards and Romby Bryant all have NFL-type talent. The defense is stock full of new names, and is a big reason why the team will have a whopping 20 new names on the roster this season.

Thanks to the additions of DB Kelly Malveaux, DE Kai Ellis and RB Jesse Lumsden, the Green & Gold really feel like they have a shot at taking all the marbles this season after a couple of sub-par years. New head coach Richie Hall was the man that led Saskatchewan's defense to the Grey Cup two years ago, and many in Canada feel as though his time to become a head coach in this league was far overdue. Many also think that the subtraction of former coach, the much-maligned Danny Maciocia, will aid the club.

Capping the Eskies is pretty easy. As goes Ricky Ray, so will go the Eskimos. Ray led the CFL last year in both completion percentage (69.8%) and passing yards (5,661), and he is largely accepted as one of the best in the biz over the last 10 years or so. He leads an offense that averaged 25.6 points per game last season, but that average should go up thanks to the addition of Lumsden who, when healthy, is arguably one of the best backs in the league.

Winnipeg has the longest Grey Cup drought of any team in the CFL at 18 years. They're probably not going to be taking too many steps in the right direction this year as it's clearly a rebuilding era. Though LeFors has looked at this Edmonton defense for his entire career in practice, this defense knows him just as well. Expect to see some jitters early on from the young starter, while the veteran, Ray eats up a questionable defense.

Free Pick: Eskimos -9½ (-110)

Joe Paterno, 82-years young, returns to guide the Penn State Nittany Lions while sophomore QB Terrelle Pryor will lead Ohio State with the Buckeyes the favorites to take the conference title.

The Big Ten has taken its lumps. The program at Michigan is rebuilding after a 3-9 campaign (2-10 ATS), the most losses in a season since the Wolverines were born in 1879. Ohio State was beaten in the BCS Championship Game two years running before losing last year’s Fiesta Bowl to Texas. Out of 11 teams in the conference, only four were profitable for handicappers in 2008.

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Buy low, sell high. The Big Ten is in good shape for a rebound season in 2009; teams like Iowa are poised to move up from the middle class to challenge for the conference title, and featherweights like Indiana have taken the steps necessary to bulk up their chances of playing a competitive brand of football.

Our capsule preview of all 11 teams (including NCAA championship betting odds, and listed in order of predicted finish) will help you get an early start on the gold rush.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1): The Buckeyes are looking forward to a full year with sophomore Terrelle Pryor (12 TD passing, six TD rushing, four interceptions) at quarterback. There’s been enough turnover on the offensive line to be worried, but the defense is strong as always.

2. Penn State Nittany Lions (30-1): Arguably a better value on the futures market; definitely undervalued last year at 7-4-1 ATS and denied a spot in the Rose Bowl. QB Daryll Clark (19 TDs, six INTs) was the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year in 2008. They get to play OSU at home this year.

3. Iowa Hawkeyes (100-1): The Hawkeyes (9-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) finished No. 17 in the nation in efficiency according to Brian Fremeau’s advanced stats – one spot ahead of Ohio State. The under was 7-4-1 for this brilliant defense, which remains largely intact for 2009.

4. Michigan State Spartans (75-1): The Spartans are returning 15 starters, but there is some concern over the team’s future at quarterback, where Kirk Cousins and Oklahoma transfer Keith Nichol battle for the top job. Another nine-win season should still be in the cards for MSU.

5. Wisconsin Badgers (100-1): Wisconsin (7-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) took a step back last year after being touted as a fringe BCS bowl candidate. QB Dustin Sherer will be under center from the get-go after taking over from Allan Evridge last October, and he’ll work behind a solid offensive line.

6. Illinois Fighting Illini (75-1): This team was lucky to get to the Rose Bowl in 2007 and played like it in 2008 at 5-7 (4-7 ATS). We’re looking for a more consistent performance on offense from QB Juice Williams (22 TDs, 16 INTs) in his sophomore campaign.

7. Minnesota Golden Gophers (150-1): The Gophers have most of their defense back and should benefit from playing on campus at the new TCF Bank Stadium. The switch to new coordinator Tim Davis and his emphasis on the running game should also help the Gophers cash in.

8. Michigan Wolverines (150-1): Let’s cut coach Rich Rodriguez a little slack here – if only from a betting perspective. This is his second year in charge and his first with true freshman Tate Forcier at quarterback. The schedule is favorable with just four road games, Iowa being the toughest opponent of the four.

9. Northwestern Wildcats (Field, 40-1): Northwestern surprised most everyone by winning nine games (7-5 ATS), four of them by a TD or less. This year it’s up to QB Mike Kafka to make the leap after three years of holding a clipboard for C.J. Bacher.

10. Purdue Boilermakers (150-1): This is a major rebuilding year for the Boilers with Danny Hope at head coach and sweeping changes on both sides of the ball. Many of Hope’s young players are NFL prospects who hope to mature quickly as the season wears on.

11. Indiana Hoosiers (Field): Things can’t get much worse after last year’s 3-9 finish (2-8-1 ATS). There is hope for upward mobility on defense with Greg Middleton and Jammie Kirlew on the line and Matt Mayberry at middle linebacker.

Though 0-5 in recent BCS contests, Oklahoma is a strong candidate to cover huge spreads this with most of their high-powered offense, led by Heisman winner Sam Bradford, returning this year. 

Sure, Bob Stoops folds under pressure like a lawn chair and can’t win the “big game.”  This is proof by his 0-5 record in his last five BCS bowls dating back to the 2004 Sugar Bowl against the LSU Tigers.  But one thing the Oklahoma Sooners can do is cover the spread, which they did successfully 10 out of 13 games in 2008.

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The Sooners started the season 4-0 ATS before losing in the Red River Shootout against Texas when OU was a 7-point favorite.  They failed to cover the next game as a big favorite against the Kansas Jayhawks but then went on a streak winning six straight ATS.  With basically the same team returning, you can expect 20+ point spreads to be no match for this high powered offense.

Many of Oklahoma’s offensive threats return this season, including gunslinger Sam Bradford, running backs DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown, and receiver Juaquin Iglesias.  These guys know how to find the end zone, and you can expect the Sooners to run up the scoreboard just as they did in 2008.

Defensively the Sooners gave up a lot of points, but that was largely in part to being on the field so much.  Oklahoma scored at least 52 points in nine games last season.  Anytime you have a quick strike offense, your defense is going to tire and give up a few points.  But as long as the defense can keep teams to around 30 points, the Sooners should still cover those -20 spreads.

Also of importance when looking at betting lines is the schedule.  Just as the case is with other conferences such as the Big Ten, schools in the Big 12 have eight home games.  This automatically gives the Sooners the edge in the majority of these games.  And it doesn’t hurt that these games include such "powerhouses" as Idaho State.

An out of conference game on the road that could be of interest is at Miami (FL).  Miami has been steadily improving over the past couple seasons and will be a hostile environment for the Sooners.  Seeing as the Hurricanes are still rebuilding their historic program, any spread better than -9 should be taken without much hesitation.

With a preseason Top 5 ranking and a nasty taste in their mouth from losing the national title game, much can be expected from the Oklahoma Sooners in 2009.  Stoops will look to get the team back to national prominence because anything short of a BCS crown will be a disappointment to the Sooner faithful.  Bradford will try to have another terrific season as he did in 2008 and raise his stock before likely declaring for the NFL Draft in 2010.  Until they give you a reason not to believe, betting the Sooners ATS in 2009 is the way to go.

NFL Betting: 2009 season win futures" src="http://www.sbrforum.com/forum/Pictures/pic1.jpg"/> The lines for NFL season win totals won't get any better than they are at present.  Just a little bit of homework right now can easily result in some high expected value on the numbers before the market catches up.

If you bet on sports for a living, you are always looking for smaller markets – futures and props – to attack. The lower limits come with a huge advantage: very loose lines.

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It is not uncommon to see futures and props with an EV (expected value) of 15%+, which you will never see when betting straight sides. One such small market that is easy to beat is the market of  NFL Season Wins.

The more time you spend intelligently analyzing any bet, the more profitable you will be. In major sports you might have to spend 40+ hours a week to have “the best of it.” In NFL season wins, you can find value spending as little as an hour.

If you are going to spend your time efficiently, you need to know where to focus your attention. When it comes to NFL season wins bets, the top three things to study from the previous year are:

1. Point for/point against stats;
2. Turnovers, and;
3. Strength of Schedule

Here are my “best plays” for season wins:

• Baltimore OVER 8.5 -155
• Cincinnati UNDER 6.5 -110
• Cleveland UNDER 7 -150
• New England UNDER 11.5 -120
• Tampa Bay OVER 6.5 +100

If you want to understand why, or want to know how to handicap Week 1 NFL games, watch the following video.


© Copyright 2009. Reprinted with permission of the author.

Is a Pittsburgh, Arizona rematch in the Cards for the next NFL Championship?  The road to Super Bowl XLIV in Miami is closer than you think, and futures couldn't be softer.

NFL Europe is gone. The CFL, such as it is these days, doesn’t start until July. The NFL Combine and the NFL Draft are in the rear-view mirror. This must be the perfect time for handicappers to get their football fix.

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I’ve said it before, it’s like buying winter clothes on sale in the summertime. The Super Bowl futures market is at its softest in the offseason, especially in that pocket of time between the end of the NBA playoffs and the start of NFL training camps in late July. The betting odds will only get tighter after camps open and we gradually get a better idea what these teams are truly made of.

The defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers opened at 7-1 to win Super Bowl XLIV at Dolphin Stadium and have since moved to 15-2, losing steam to the very public New England Patriots at 4-1. The difference between these two teams is fairly small, at least in terms of the over/under for regular season wins, with New England at 11.5 and Pittsburgh at 11. Both teams are expected to earn a first-round bye in the playoffs. The Pats are 1-7 favorites to take the AFC East, while the Steelers are 5-7 faves in the AFC North.

Pittsburgh definitely represents the more stable of the top two Super Bowl picks. The Patriots are bringing Tom Brady back into the fold after missing nearly all of 2008 with a serious knee injury. The Steelers will have pretty much everyone of concern back for another run at the title, although that also means there are still weaknesses to be addressed at tailback and wide receiver. Pittsburgh’s offense was ranked No. 15 in the league in running efficiency last year and No. 20 in passing.

The Steelers defense created the conditions for winning by holding opponents to a league-low 13.9 points and 237.2 yards per game. They scored three touchdowns in the regular season and another at the Super Bowl when LB James Harrison huffed and puffed 100 yards to paydirt. Pittsburgh’s defensive line will be stronger with first-round pick Evander Hood from Missouri, and CB Keiwan Ratliff was signed from the Indianapolis Colts to replace Bryant McFadden.

Given this considerable advantage in field position, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (17 TD passes, 15 interceptions) kept the chains moving and played inspired football when it mattered most, all the way up to his epic title-winning pass to Santonio Holmes with 35 seconds remaining. This is a two-time Super Bowl champion in the prime of his career at age 27. Can Brady compete with this in his age 32 season after a serious injury?

Better yet, compare the Steelers’ quiet offseason to that of their Super Bowl adversaries, the Arizona Cardinals. They’re not getting a lot of support on the market, falling from 15-1 at the open to 20-1 as contract talks with WR Anquan Boldin bog down. They’re even money to win the NFC West, which could yet again be the difference between making and missing the postseason. The good news for supporters is their total of 9.5 victories, suitably higher than the 7.0 posted for the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers.

The Cardinals might not look like a beacon of consistency, not with QB Kurt Warner at the controls while Matt Leinart holds a clipboard for another year – or at least until Warner gets injured, which was thankfully not an issue in an MVP-quality campaign at the tender age of 37. Arizona protected Warner in 2008 with major improvements on the offensive line under the watchful eye of assistant Russ Grimm. The Cards allowed 28 sacks last year; Pittsburgh coughed up 50. An upright quarterback is a consistent quarterback.

The Cardinals have a solid core of talent led by a top young coach in Ken Whisenhunt who cut his teeth alongside Grimm in the Steelers organization. They filled their needs at the draft, starting with former Ohio State tailback Chris “Beanie” Wells in the first round. And unlike the Steelers, they have the weaker NFC to navigate on the way back to the Super Bowl. True, history hasn’t been kind to Super Bowl losers – last year’s Patriots being the most recent hard-luck example. But value bettors might be more inclined to take their title chances with Arizona at nearly three times the payout.

It's the strongest division in the NFL the past 40+ seasons, and Donovan McNabb is out to lead the Eagles to the top of the NFC East in the upcoming 2009 season.  With the Cowboys and Giants the darlings of the media and the public, Philadelphia is slowly moving up the betting odds chart with training camps set to open in about five weeks. The Eagles open their preseason slate Aug 13 at home against the Patriots.

Welcome to the best division in the NFL.

The NFC East has been the center of the football universe since 1967, when the NFL first breathed life into what was then known as the Capitol Division. They’ve been represented at 19 of the 43 Super Bowls and hoisted the Vince Lombardi Trophy 11 times – five for the Dallas Cowboys, three each for the New York Giants and Washington Redskins, and none yet for the Philadelphia Eagles. Is this their year?

The betting odds suggest the marketplace is warming up to the idea. Here’s what the Super Bowl futures had in store for all four teams at the open and at press time:

TEAM	OPEN	CURRENT
Giants	8/1	9/1
Eagles	12/1	11/1
Cowboys	9/1	11/1
Redskins	25/1	25/1

Only the Redskins appear to be out of the championship picture at this point. The other three teams are also the top three favorites to win the NFC, where once again the lines have been moving in Philly’s direction since the open.

TEAM	OPEN	CURRENT
Giants	4/1	9/2
Eagles	6/1	11/2
Cowboys	5/1	6/1
Redskins	12/1	12/1

You can’t blame the market for taking a shine to the Eagles. They were the best team in the league last year in terms of efficiency, according to the leading NFL stat junkies at Football Outsiders. The Giants moved up from No. 15 in 2007 to No. 3 in 2008, carrying the momentum from the late-season surge that netted them Super Bowl XLII and saved coach Tom Coughlin from the unemployment line.

Gazing into my crystal ball (I keep one in the beer fridge for such occasions), I see the Eagles continuing to rise up the charts and capturing the division title from the Giants. Dallas is going to have a hard time keeping up after falling from No. 3 to No. 15 in league efficiency and shedding the considerable talents of wideout Terrell Owens. And Washington seems destined for mediocrity after slipping from No. 12 in efficiency to No. 18, spoiling a promising 6-2 start (5-3 ATS) to the 2008 campaign.

The Eagles (9-6-1 SU, 10-6 ATS last year) are already one of the top defensive teams in the league. The health of the offense always seems to be in doubt; this year’s draft was focused on surrounding QB Donovan McNabb (23 touchdowns, 11 interceptions) with some fresh talent. Enter WR Jeremy Maclin, RB LeSean McCoy and TE Cornelius Ingram with Philadelphia’s first three picks. Maclin is in the best position to step in immediately and provide McNabb with a legitimate target to complement DeSean Jackson and oft-injured Kevin Curtis, who told the Philadelphia Daily News that he’s completely healthy for 2009 following surgery for a sports hernia.

The offseason wasn’t nearly as positive for the Giants (12-4 SU and ATS). Wideout Plaxico Burress was sent packing after accidentally shooting himself in the leg; more importantly from a football perspective, heralded defensive co-ordinator Steve Spagnuolo was finally lured away by a lucrative offer to coach the St. Louis Rams. His replacement, former linebackers coach Bill Sheridan, inherits a defense with an outstanding front seven, but also with too many questions in the secondary to inspire confidence.

The Giants’ front seven includes free-agent signing Chris Canty, who joins the Dallas exodus along with Owens, SS Roy Williams, LB Zach Thomas, LB Kevin Burnett, CB Adam Jones, CB Anthony Henry, DE Greg Ellis and DT Tank Johnson. The Cowboys (9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS) went from top Super Bowl contenders to missing the playoffs in 2008; the hands-on behavior of owner Jerry Jones has to be of concern to fans in Big D.

Ask long-suffering fans of the Redskins (8-8 SU, 6-8-2 ATS). They thought they were out of the woods in 2004 when owner Daniel Snyder stepped into the background while local legend Joe Gibbs took the reins. Gibbs lasted four years before handing the coach’s whistle to untested Jim Zorn. Now Snyder is up to his old tricks, spending big bucks on DT Albert Haynesworth but losing LB Jason Taylor and failing to improve an offense that finished No. 15 in the league in efficiency. If the Redskins were a bank, they’d be allowed to fail.

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Now is the best time to find value on NFL Futures, and the Chargers are great bargains at 16/1 to win the Super Bowl with Chicago also a nice price to reach the Big Game.

It is never too early to take a look at NFL Future wagering possibilities, and in fact, now may be the best time to find some gems before the value in these wagers decreases as the season gets closer.

To this end, we feel we have found a couple of nice Super Bowl and conference champion futures, and we will also recommend some future bets for every single division. All posted lines are available at The Greek.

San Diego Chargers +1615 to win the Super Bowl: What a difference a year makes! Last season, the Chargers were decimated by injuries coming into the season, as Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates were all coming off of serious injuries, and it showed in the performances of LT and Gates, although Rivers did come into his own despite coming off a torn ACL.

All three of those studs are healthy now, and we look for Tomlinson to silence his critics that claimed he lost a step by regaining his 2007 form this year. Remember, although they finished at just 8-8, the Chargers may have been the best team in the NFL over the final month of last season, and with a healthy corps group from the outset this year, we feel this team is very capable of winning the whole thing at this great price.

Chicago Bears +1415 to win the NFC: In Jay we trust! Besides adding one of the best young quarterbacks in the game in Jay Cutler, the Bears also added Orlando Pace and Kevin Shaffer to protect him, and they had a great draft that should help their defense. Grabbing cornerback D.J. Moore with pick 119 may be the best value pick in the entire draft. The Bears do not have much to beat to win the NFC North, and it looks like their only potential roadblock to the Super Bowl may be the NFC East winner. Still, at this price, they are worth the risk.

San Diego Chargers +805 to win the AFC: Even if you are leery of making a Super Bowl wager on this team, this is still nice value for just reaching the Big Game. Thus, it may not be a bad idea to wager on both the Super Bowl and the Conference Championship, as the Super Bowl would then be some nice gravy if the Chargers make it.

And now, let us move on to each division.

Philadelphia Eagles +225 to win NFC East: The Eagles reached the NFC Championship Game last season, and we feel they made more off-season improvements than did the current NFC East and NFC Conference favorites, the New York Giants. It is not untypical for Philadelphia to tease their fans with a great season and a weak finish, and we feel this year will be no exception. Look for the Eagles to pull away from the Giants and Cowboys to win the division, only to get upset by the Bears in the playoffs.

Chicago Bears +185 to win NFC North: The Minnesota Vikings are the favorites to win this division, but we do not see them winning anything as long as Brad Childress is their coach. The Bears may end up being the second best team in the NFC before all is said and done, so we will gladly snare them as the second choice in their own division.

New Orleans Saints +205 to win NFC South: The Saints were the best 8-8 team in the NFL last season, as they easily could have been 11-5 if former kicker Martin Grammatica was able to make a few pressure kicks. We do not feel that either the Carolina Panthers or especially the Atlanta Falcons are as good as their records last season, and those two having natural regression and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a transition period, we like getting better than 2/1 odds on New Orleans.

Seattle Seahawks +245 to win NFC West: The Seahawks were a disastrous 4-12 last season, but they had so many players on the injured list that you can almost throw the whole season out. Look for vast improvement this year with a healthy Matt Hasselbeck and a great new target for him in newly acquired T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Also, do not forget that the offensive line that carried them to the playoffs in 2007 is nor back in tact. Do not be surprised if this team goes from 4-12 to 10-6 in one year, and this price seems right.

New England Patriots +260 to NOT win AFC East: Many experts are just putting the Patriots in the Super Bowl right now, but we are not even convinced that they are a given to win their division. People are underestimating just how serious the knee injury to Tom Brady was, and it is not at all a given that he will return in peak form. Also, their lack of a pass rush is another serious concern. Now we have no idea who will win the AFC East as every team seems to have holes, but we are convinces that the Patriots are overpriced here.

Baltimore Ravens -105 to win AFC North without Pittsburgh Steelers: This prop is available at The Greek, and we simply feel that the Ravens are clearly superior to both the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns. Sure, their defense is a bit long in the tooth, but we still feel that Ray Lewis & Co. have at least one more good year in them, and that unit will always ensure that the Ravens are not out of a game.

Tennessee Titans +265 to win AFC South: We felt that the Titans were good last year, but even we were surprised that they ended up with the best record in football. Still, their defense is legitimate, and that unit gives them the edge over the favored Colts and the overrated Jaguars. Now the Houston Texans may soon be ready for prime time, but not just yet. This looks like great value at the price.

San Diego Chargers -235 to win AFC West: Granted, this does not have the line value of our other selections, but face it, does anyone else have a chance to win the West? The Raiders and Chiefs are both still in rebuilding mode and the Broncos were questionable even before treading away Cutler and getting not enough in return in our opinion. This price is high, but it is still not as high as it should be.

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While NFL fans are looking forward to seeing QB Matthew Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno in the pros, Georgia certainly wasn’t looking forward to losing them.

The draft may be an exciting time for NFL teams, scouts, and fans, but in its wake it leaves plenty of headaches. With the early departure of both of Georgia’s most talented offensive players, the Bulldogs have their work cut out for them in filling these holes.

Last year Georgia entered the season at No. 1 in the polls, but was bested during the regular season by Florida, Alabama and Georgia Tech. They finished with a 10-3 record overall, and a 4-6-2 record against the spread. At 6-6-0, there was no distinct trend in Over-Under betting.

With their two best players on offense now departed, Georgia will have a totally different look this season when the ball is in their possession. Who will fill these holes, and will they lead to any trends that bettors can take advantage of?

Quarterback
Likely Starter: Joe Cox
On his heels: Logan Gray, Aaron Murray, Zach Mettenberger

While there is a good chance that Mettenberger and/or Murray may end up getting redshirted for their freshman year, considering how wide open the position is, we still need to follow them closely over the off season, namely Aaron Murray. While Mettenberger is also a four star recruit, Aaron Murray was the third highest rated quarterback of the 2009 class. With an exceptional spring, it wouldn’t be shocking for him to at leasy get his name involved in the mix, especially if Cox or Gray do not step up and claim the position.

Senior Joe Cox only has 58 passing attempts over the course of his collegiate career with the Bulldogs, but he enters camp the prohibitive favorite to be the starter, as he has paid his dues and worked under this system since 2005. That said, it is hard to believe he will have a very long leash with so much talent and potential right below him on the depth chart. Logan Gray will likely get snaps to add some versatility to the Bulldogs offense; he has the talent to be a good dual threat option and can use his arm or his feet to pick up yards.

No matter who ends up being the starter, there will undoubtedly be growing pains. Expect a heavy dose of running the football to try and keep the pressure off of the quarterback.

Running Back
Likely Starter: Caleb King
On his heels: Richard Samuel, Carlton Thomas

Caleb King, the redshirt sophomore, will very likely be the man in the backfield to start games off for the Bulldogs. King has the potential to be a great college back; he is both fast and strong and has shown great signs of vision. He may get first dibs at the starting job, but he will have to perform at a high level to continue getting the bulk of the carries with Samuel and Thomas on the roster as well.

Carlton Thomas has been turning some heads early during spring workouts. An undersized back at only 5’7, 165, Thomas uses his size to his advantage with blazing speed and elusiveness, making him very difficult to wrap up and take down. He will break plenty of long runs from scrimmage before this season is over, and just might juke and jive his way to second on the depth chart over Richard Samuel if he keeps impressing.

Samuel is a more powerful back at 6-2, 215 pounds and is the type of player that defenders hate to tackle. He can lower his shoulder and do some damage to an oncoming tackler while fighting for those extra few yards. On third and shorts and goal line situations this year, Samuel will likely get the call; that is of course if he is able to overcome that bad habit of losing the football.

One thing these position battles tell us more than anything is that this offense is raw, and it will undoubtedly make some mistakes. That said, I’m expecting Georgia to come out with a game plan that is very safe and very heavy on running the football, and I believe that this offense will be efficient in running a safe offense with three capable young backs in the backfield.

Georgia’s defense took a hit in losing CB Asher Allen, but they have the depth and talent to still have an effective year next year. A defensive team running a safe offense in the SEC? I’ll be taking a healthy dose of the Under in 2009, and with so many no-names on offense the Bulldogs will likely be drawing some pretty favorable spreads to start the season, and I’ll take my chances on some inflated spreads when the price is right.

After dropping 10 straight Super Bowls (1987-96), the AFC has stormed back to win eight of the last 11, including the last four.  Is the NFC showing signs of reversing that trend?

NFL fans and observers entered the 2007 season believing the AFC was far superior to the NFC and its older, more established teams.

Caesars Palace Race and Sports Director Chuck Esposito went on record before the campaign's early-September start saying he felt as many as six AFC clubs were better than the NFC's best, which, at the time, widely was thought to be defending conference champion Chicago.

Now folks are warbling a new tune.

The AFC's still supreme, but some NFC backup singers also are being heard. The NFL has five unbeaten clubs going into Week 4 and two are from the NFC: Green Bay and Dallas, a.k.a. America's team.

Both are favorites this weekend, but still play very differing roles.

The Packers are a field goal favorite over neighboring Minnesota at Bodog. Green Bay was a 1-point choice in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest and a 1½ point pick in other Sin City competitions. Bodog has the Cowboys laying 13½, while the Hilton had the line at 13. Dallas was an 11½-point selection in the South Point-El Cortez high roller contest, which drew 84 participants at $2,500 a crack.

Professional Handicappers League member Jimmy Boyd, who continues to battle for its All-Around points title, thinks the Pack has one thing going for it this week: Lambeau Field.

"The Packers are for real at home," Boyd said. "Their road win over the Giants doesn't impress me all that much. New York isn't exactly good defensively.

"If this team can be consistent on the road, in the second half of the year, when they have six of their last 10 games away from Lambeau, you bet I'll be believing. It's still a little too early to tell, but there's no doubt that they are improved from a season ago."

Packers futures are falling quickly, as are those on Dallas.

The Hilton listed Gren Bay at 20/1 on Friday, down from 50/1 when the season began. The Cowboys have dropped all the way to 7/1, making it a big favorite over the 1-2 Chicago Bears.

Many folks, though, haven't totally written off the Bears, who are giving three points at Bodog to the visiting Lions on Sunday. Many Las Vegas contests pegged the number at 2½.

"The Bears are still number two in the NFC in my book with as weak as this conference is," Boyd said. "They'll have to take another lump before I change my tune. I think the change to Griese will at least allow the Bears to stay out of the turnover trouble that Rex has put them in."

Chicago announced this week that Griese will start against Detroit over Grossman, who threw three interceptions in the Bears' Sunday night loss to Dallas.

They were the Cinderella story last season after the Dolphins posted an 11-5 mark to earn a postseason berth just a year removed from a 1-15 record.  Head coach Tony Sparano, now entering his second season on the sidelines, knows it will be much tougher in the coming campaign, and with Miami being dealt the toughest schedule for 2009, there's a good chance they may not even reach eight wins.

On the other side of the NFL offseason betting odds fence from division, conference, and Super Bowl outright odds are season win totals. Often overlooked as futures plays, season win totals present tons of value for football bettors – as long as you know what you’re doing.

The first thing you need to do is examine each team’s strength of schedule. Simply defined, strength of schedule is determined by combining the wins and losses (based on last season’s records) of the opponents in the upcoming season of a given team. Take this season’s Washington Redskins, who come into the year with the 16th-ranked strength of schedule (.492). Last season, the teams they’re set to play went 125-129-2, for an aggregate winning percentage of .492.

You probably noticed there’s one fundamental flaw to the idea of strength of schedule. The number is based on last season’s performance. What the statistic can’t tell you is Tom Brady is back under center in New England, Terrell Owens is catching passes in Buffalo, and Shawne Merriman is healthy in San Diego. In assessing season win totals, make sure to balance a team’s strength of schedule with your own take on how they’re going to fare this season.

Five toughest schedules this season:

Miami Dolphins	.594
Carolina Panthers	.592
New England Patriots	.590
Atlanta Falcons	.588
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	.580

You can see the AFC East and NFC South got the shaft from the league office this season. The Dolphins, Panthers, and Falcons all made the playoffs last year, but they could be in trouble this time around. Generally speaking, teams that improve gradually from season to season tend to be more resilient to changes to the difficulty of their schedule than teams that make an abrupt jump in the standings.

Sorry Miami backers, the Fish are prime examples of this reality. The Dolphins played one of the easiest schedules in the league in 2008, especially after Brady went down for the season. The AFC East drew both the AFC West and NFC West last season, plus Miami went 1-15 SU the year before. With a cupcake schedule, the Dolphins went 11-5 and won the division.

This year, Miami has to play the much tougher AFC South and NFC South, the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers, the San Diego Chargers, and Brady and the Patriots (twice). The Fish have to play just as well to stay at .500, let alone get back to the postseason. Chad Pennington had a career year last season, and the Dolphins led the league in turnover ratio. Those two things won’t happen again.

Chance’s pick: Miami under 8.0 wins

Pegging a team to play over their season win total seems a little easier, not that I’m unsure about the Dolphins.

Five easiest schedules this season:

Chicago Bears	.414
Minnesota Vikings	.420
Green Bay Packers	.428
Pittsburgh Steelers	.434
Baltimore Ravens	.438

The AFC North and NFC North are the big winners, and both of my picks to play over their season win totals are from those divisions. With the Bears, I honestly don’t know what the books are thinking setting their season total at nine wins. Chicago went 9-7 last season without Jay Cutler, so my guess is he’ll help the Bears to at least 10 victories. Running back Matt Forte is a special talent in the backfield, and the defense is set to bounce back from a lackluster season.

Over in the AFC North, oddsmakers have the Steelers set at over/under 11 victories. Pittsburgh managed to go 12-4 last season with – literally – the most difficult strength of schedule (.598) in three decades. The Steelers won the Super Bowl. They have one of the most ferocious defenses in the NFL history, and an excellent head coach in Mike Tomlin. Ben Roethlisberger is coming into his own, and there’s no way Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall both miss significant time from injury again. This season? The fourth-easiest schedule means Pittsburgh is primed to at least repeat its 12-win showing of a year ago.

Chance’s pick: Chicago over 9.0 wins & Pittsburgh over 11.0 wins

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College basketball might be out of sight, out of mind for many right now, but that doesn't mean there isn't any news coming from campuses that can be utilized by bettors looking to gain an early edge on next season.  On the heels of their 2008-09 National Championship, Roy Williams and North Carolina are rebuilding minus several stars while the Davidson Wildcats begin life without the talented Stephen Curry.

One of the challenges that come with handicapping college basketball is the annual roster turnover. Players graduate, leave early for the pros (both NBA and Europe), or transfer from one school to another. Some even give up the game for any number of reasons. This is college, after all, and being a student is all about finding your way in life. Basketball isn’t the way for everyone.

Both schools and handicappers adjust by making the coach the primary focus of the program. People at the top of their profession like Roy Williams and Tom Izzo, the coaches of last month’s NCAA Tournament finalists, have a system in place that recruits student-athletes to fit the template. It’s not unlike working at a fast-food restaurant. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some talented players out there who are more Iron Chef than burger-flipper. Keeping track of their movement is important for sharp betting.

Here are three of the teams under the microscope right now.

North Carolina Tar Heels
Williams and the defending national champions have some work to do. 2008 Wooden Award winner Tyler Hansbrough has graduated; Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington announced last week that they would enter the NBA Draft. Lawson has an opportunity to be a late lottery pick after being named the ACC Player of the Year and leading the Tar Heels to the championship. Ellington was the Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four. Danny Green is also moving on, leaving Williams with Marcus Ginyard, Deon Thompson and an outstanding rookie class.

Shades of 2005. Williams faced a similar situation four years ago after winning the title. With the freshman Hansbrough leading the way, North Carolina went 23-8 SU and blew out the betting odds at a mouthwatering 18-10-1 ATS.

Davidson Wildcats
It’s a lot more difficult for a mid-major like Davidson to absorb the loss of even one talented player. But the ‘Cats have no choice. Stephen Curry has announced he’ll forgo his senior season and hire an agent, which will prevent him from pulling his name out of the NBA Draft and returning to Davidson. The first-team All-American appears likely to be drafted ahead of Lawson; LeBron James has compared him to another successful shooter, Richard “Rip” Hamilton.

We’ve already gotten a taste of what Davidson looks like without Curry: not so spicy. While the consensus top marksman in college sat out with a sprained ankle, the Wildcats lost 64-46 to The Citadel as 14-point home faves. The good news is that coach Bob McKillop has been on campus since 1989 and took the ‘Cats to the Tournament the year before Curry landed on his doorstep.

Duke Blue Devils
When you think about recruiting, you think about Coach K. Mike Krzyzewski keeps bringing the Blue Devils back to the Big Dance – the only time they’ve missed in the past 25 years was in 1995, when Krzyzewski decided to take some time off after back surgery. Scout.com has Duke’s 2009 recruiting class ranked ninth overall (Williams and UNC are the current No. 1) with two absolute blue-chip power forwards: Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee. They’re joining a team that went 30-7 last year (17-18-1 ATS) and has at least four starters returning for another crack at the title.

The fifth player in question is Gerald Henderson. The talented swingman has declared his intention to join the NBA Draft, although he’s reportedly holding off on hiring an agent for now. Henderson led the Blue Devils in scoring with 16.5 points per game; if he returns, Duke could be in the same position a year from now as North Carolina is in today.

Krzyzewski could also use some more help in the backcourt with former starter Greg Paulus deciding to make the shift to football. The point guard/quarterback will apparently either play basketball in Europe until he gets an NFL job (Paulus has worked out for the Green Bay Packers) or use his final year of eligibility to strap on the helmet for a team like the Syracuse Orange. Basketball isn’t the way for everyone.

NFL Draft Review: Bad Teams That Might Get Better" src="http://www.sbrforum.com/forum/Pictures/David_Garrard_Jags200x250.jpg"/> With 256 draft picks now in the books, all we have to look forward to is the start of the NFL season. Which teams gave themselves the best chance to be a "surprise team" early in 2009? Teams like the New England Patriots, New York Giants, and Pittsburgh Steelers have proven year in and year out that they know what the draft is all about, and their success won't catch anyone off guard. But whose draft will?

So what teams will? I have three that you should at the very least keep your eyes open for.

Oakland Raiders, 5-11-0 moneyline, 7-9-0 ATS

I know, you just rolled your eyes. While the public scrutiny on the Raiders has always been tough, it has gotten to a point where it is flat out ridiculous. The hatred and ridicule of this team has gotten so bad that you can almost expect 2 to 3 points on the spread in your favor every single time you bet the Raiders because people hate them so much they will fade them at any cost.

Let’s put aside for a second how much of a "reach" certain players were, how embarrassing Oakland is, how much of a senile old man Al Davis is. What’s done is done. And while it may not have been the best run draft by a long shot, the truth is that the Raiders added some key pieces to a very raw and very talented offense.

Vastly underrated QB Jamarcus Russell (one of the magnets to all this hate) managed a 13 to 8 TD to INT ratio last year despite having one of (if not the) worst WR cores in the league and playing in his first full season and going through a coaching change in the middle of it. How you get labeled a bust through all that is beyond me. Behind him he has an excellent RB core including Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, and Zach Miller and Johnny Lee Higgins emerged through the darkness last year as well. This raw young offense has had a year to play together and develop, and it should pay huge dividends, as they showed flashes of what they were capable of in late wins over Houston and Tampa Bay last season.

Hate him or not, Darrius Heyward-Bey does have the tools to be a weapon, even if he wasn’t the "right" pick. Fourth round pick WR Louis Murphy out of Florida can step in right away as well. Sixth round pick TE Brandon Myers will help with run blocking, and out of a two TE system allow for Zach Miller to run more routes.

Not that this article is going to change any Raider-Haters mind. But whether you choose to ignore it or not, this team does have a wealth of young talent and will get the extra betting edge almost every single time they play due to public perception against them. Don’t be one of the sheep that blindly hates them, this might be the year they make you pay for it ATS.

Cincinnati Bengals, 4-11-1 moneyline, 7-9 ATS

This team fought a lot harder then their record would indicate last season, but they just didn’t have the talent to keep up with most teams. A healthy Carson Palmer is the key to any success that the Bengals may have next season; and they wisely passed on Michael Crabtree and made the right choice in drafting OT Andre Smith in the first round, taking a step towards protecting their most prized asset.

Acquisitions of LB Ray Maualuga and DE Michael Johnson should make an impact immediately. Both are extremely quick and have an uncanny ability to get to the opposing team’s quarterback. Both of these guys should force plenty of mistakes, and with the drafting of punter Kevin Huber planting team’s deep in their own zone, they will get plenty of chances.

TE Chase Coffman would have been drafted higher had he not had a foot injury, and he has great hands and size at the position. He should also prove to be a valuable weapon to Carson Palmer.

All and all, it was very quietly a solid draft by the Bengals. They used their first pick to get a guy to protect Palmer, and their second and third pick to add some speed and killer instinct to the defense. Coach Marvin Lewis should have fun with these guys, and the Bengals could very easily take a big step back towards respectability this season, and you can make money on it while everyone else is worried about what will be printed on the back of Chad Johnson’s jersey.

Jacksonville Jaguars, 5-11-0 moneyline, 4-12 ATS

It seems like forever ago that we were considering this team a Super Bowl sleeper and the type of team that matched up well enough to potentially beat the undefeated Patriots, doesn’t it? But it wasn’t that long ago.

A massive fall from grace is going to happen when a smash mouth team loses 3 of its 4 starting offensive linemen to injury to start the season. Less time in the pocket meant less effectiveness for QB David Gerrard, and less holes to run through make it harder for the running game to move the chains.

Many panic-mode type of teams would have used high draft picks on say a wide receiver, but the Jaguars know what they are and know what leads them to success. Back to back offensive lineman picks in Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton helps them get back on track on the line right away.

On defense, the Jaguars gave opposing quarterbacks way too much time to throw, and had trouble covering the long ball. Using their two third round picks on DE Terrance Knighton and CB Derek Cox addressed both of those holes

And then after shoring up their offensive line and defensive needs, Jacksonville went bargain hunting on wide receivers, adding Arizona’s Mike Thomas, Rice’s Jarett Dillard, and Rutgers Tiquan Underwood. They also added speedy TE Zach Miller (no, not the Raider guy, but it may get awfully confusing someday). My money is on Dillard, but all three of these guys showed flashes of brilliance at the collegiate level, and if any one of them develops into a reliable WR it will cap off what looks to me like a very successful draft.

Unlike the Bengals and Raiders, this team was actually good in very recent history, so we may not be able to catch the bookmakers or the public sleeping on these guys. But I’d still circle their games on my schedule early in the season just in case, because the resurgence of the offensive line may be all this team needs to get back in the playoff hunt.

(And as for those of you wondering where the New York Jets piece is? That is exactly the problem. While their draft certainly had merit, it has been so widely praised and blown up in the media that I don’t believe we will catch many favorable lines next year; in fact, the exact opposite).

NFL draft board" src="http://www.sbrforum.com/forum/Pictures/nfl-draft-generalHZ430x160.jpg"/> NFL fans starving for action get their fill this weekend with the 2009 NFL draft taking place at Radio City Music Hall. ESPN begins their coverage at 4:00 p.m. (ET) on Saturday. 

It’s time to answer that age-old question: Do you draft based on need, or do you take the best player on the board?

That’s the dilemma 32 teams are facing as they prepare for the 2009 NFL Draft. The decisions they make will have a small effect on the Super Bowl betting odds, which shouldn’t see too much movement on the futures market this weekend. But the teams who draft best will enhance their betting value the most. That’s why handicappers and fans alike will be glued to their TV sets on Saturday (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. Eastern) for the first day of coverage.

The big story at last year’s draft was the emphasis on offensive tackles. This article by Robert Weintraub underlines the value provided by the O-line, which is gold for sharp handicappers – they might be the only people in the stadium who pay attention to these very important players. We’re expecting four blue-chippers to go in the top half of the first round.

Offensive Tackle
Jason Smith (Baylor)
Eugene Monroe (Virginia)
Andre Smith (Alabama)
Michael Oher (Mississippi)

Jason Smith and Monroe are both impeccable choices, and it appears one of them will go to the St. Louis Rams with the No. 2 pick. Smith would take over for oft-injured Orlando Pace at left tackle and provide the kind of blind-side protection QB Marc Bulger desperately needs. Monroe is considered to be even better than Smith at pass protection, but isn’t as strong or durable and could find himself in a Cincinnati Bengals uniform at No. 6.

The other two OTs have character issues. Andre Smith’s conduct at the beginning of the Scouting Combine probably cost him a bigger payday as the No. 2 pick, while Oher’s unusual background is the subject of this influential article by Michael Lewis. OTs are generally considered high-character players. But Smith and Oher aren’t being asked to broker peace talks in the Middle East. These are two outstanding run blockers who will make an immediate impact at the pro level and add value to the betting profile of their new employers.

Quarterback
Matthew Stafford, Georgia
Mark Sanchez, USC
Josh Freeman, Kansas State

On the other side of the draft coin, you have the marquee position in football. The Detroit Lions have needs just about everywhere on the field, but they’re reportedly going for the big one at No. 1 and are expected to sign Stafford to a deal before Saturday. Scouts Inc. has the Tampa native ranked seventh overall among all the prospects, behind both Jason Smith (No. 2) and Monroe (No. 5).

Conventional wisdom would have Detroit choose either of the two OTs and take care of the QB position later on, perhaps with the No. 20 overall pick (acquired from the Dallas Cowboys in the Roy Williams trade). That’s what the Miami Dolphins did last year at No. 1 with Jake Long and free agent Chad Pennington; we also saw the Cleveland Browns select Joe Thomas with the No. 3 pick before taking Brady Quinn at No. 22. Both Long and Thomas made it to the Pro Bowl in their rookie seasons, and both the Dolphins and Browns enjoyed bounce-back campaigns – handicappers are especially fond of Cleveland’s 10-6 (12-4 ATS) effort in 2007.

But conventional wisdom is what it is. According to Football Outsiders, offensive tackles are some of the riskiest picks a team can make in the first round – at least, judging by how many of them make the Pro Bowl after four years (14.1 percent, compared to 27 percent for quarterbacks taken from 1988 through 2005). FO is quick to add that it’s easier to get into the Pro Bowl as a QB; aside from replacement picks, three pivots from each conference get chosen compared to four tackles. The key for handicappers, again, is the perceived difference in value between these two positions as far as the betting public is concerned.

Sanchez is ranked a very close second to Stafford among quarterbacks and should add more betting value to his team the farther he drops in the draft order. Some mocks have him going No. 4 to the Seattle Seahawks; others see him falling to the Denver Broncos at No. 12. Freeman could be around for Detroit at No. 20. After that, it’s a long way down to Michigan State’s Brian Hoyer, ranked No. 134 overall in the draft.

NFL Draft: Stafford to go first, Sanchez drops to 10th" src="http://www.sbrforum.com/forum/Pictures/Matt_Stafford200x250.jpg"/> The NFL Draft is just one month away, so here is our first look at the projected top 10 picks in the draft. While Aaron Curry may be the best raw talent, QB Matt Stafford should be the first pick by the Detroit Lions, and if you are waiting for the second-best quarterback in the draft, Mark Sanchez, to be taken, you mat have to wait longer than you think. Then again, many choices have more to do with team needs than ability.

Sure, we are smack in the middle of March Madness right now, but remember that the NFL Draft is only one month away, and it is never too early to project who the top 10 draft picks will be.

Now the consensus seems to be that the top three rated players in the draft are linebacker Aaron Curry out of Wake Forest, offensive tackle Jason Smith from Baylor and quarterback Matt Stafford of Georgia, but will they go in that order in the draft? Also, did USC signal-caller Mark Sanchez make a mistake by entering the draft after starting just one season in college?

Well, we do agree that Curry, Smith and Stafford will be the first three picks. But we do not feel they will go in that order based on the needs of the teams with the top three picks. Here is an early look at our projected top 10 picks of the NFL draft. Keep in mind that these selections assume no big trades involving the teams with the top 10 picks between now and the draft.

1 Detroit Lions: Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia - Sure, the Lions earned this spot by having the worst team in football, and truth be told, they can choose any of the top three players mentioned and probably avoid any criticism. That said, we feel that the discrepancy between Stafford and Mark Sanchez at quarterback is greater then the difference between Smith and Curry and the next best player at their respective positions. Thus, the positional value gained by drafting Stafford number one should be too much to ignore, especially given how great he looked on Pro Day.

2 St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, T, Baylor - Steve Spagnuolo probably tipped his hand here when he said that the Rams will be less Showtime next season and more centered around the running of a healthy Steven Jackson. This tells us that they will side with a franchise offensive tackle in this spot over Curry. So now the choice comes down to Smith or Eugene Monroe, and the former is generally regarded as the better run-blocker between these two tackles right now.

3 Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest - Many experts rate Curry as the top overall talent in the entire draft, so if he is available at three as we suspect, the Chiefs will jump all over him. Also, their recent acquisition of Matt Cassel makes this pick even more likely, as it will remove the temptation to take a Mark Sanchez at this spot, which we feel would be too high for him anyway.

4 Seattle Seahawks: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech - Yes, the Seahawks shelled out big bucks for wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but do not forget that he is 31 years old and is not the answer for the future. Seattle feels that they have a chance to win now with a healthy Matt Hasselbeck, and drafting someone with the big-play ability of Crabtree makes sense on a couple of levels. Besides the fact that he may be ready to start opposite of T.J. right away, he also has loads of upside, as he may develop into the best receiver in the NFL in a few years.

5 Cleveland Browns: Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas - There are rumors that new coach Eric Mangini is not a big fan of Brady Quinn, so Sanchez may be a serious consideration here. Remember though that these forecasts assume no big trades before the draft, and as long as Quinn is still on the Cleveland roster, Orakpo seems like an obvious choice here. The Browns were dead last in the NFL in sacks last season, and Orakpo is the elite pass rusher in this draft.

6 Cincinnati Bengals: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College - This looks like great value for the Bengals, as many experts see Raji as a top three or top four pick. Raji looked amazing in the Senior Bowl, and while that alone is not a reason alone to rate him this high, it does confirm that the hype around him is real. As a nice footnote, Marvin Lewis and the Cincinnati coaching staff coached Raji in that game, so they saw first hand what they could be getting here.

7 Oakland Raiders: Eugene Monroe, T, Virginia - If you believe former Oakland executive Michael Lombardi, he recently said that Oakland was a “lock” to draft either an offensive or defensive lineman in the first round. Well, Monroe may have been the second pick overall if he was as good a run blocker as Jason Smith, and there is still a chance that he may go higher than this. So if Lombardi is as well informed as we think he is, the Raiders will gladly nab Monroe in this spot.

8 Jacksonville Jaguars: Vontae Davis, CB, Ilinois - Well, we have to admit that this was our toughest call in the top 10, and it may be considered a reach. The Jaguars just signed tackle Tra Thomas, meaning that they will not use this pick for a Michael Oher or an Andre Smith. They would love to have B.J. Raji, and he would definitely be the choice if he lasts until the eighth pick, but we do not see that happening. So what do they do? Jacksonville does have problems in the secondary, and Davis is the best cornerback available. He may not be worthy of this spot, but he does fill a need and he should not be still available in the second round.

9 Green Bay Packers: Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State - The Packers need to upgrade their pass rush, so this choice comes down to Maybin or Everette Brown. Well, after being possibly the single biggest disappointment at the NFL Combine, Maybin rebounded with a spectacular Pro Day, where he improved his 40-yard dash by .30 seconds and he threw in a 40.5 inch vertical leap and a 10-10 broad jump for good measure. He also put on some weight, and considering that he is not yet 21, he will only get faster and stronger.

10 San Francisco 49ers: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC - Finally, the second best quarterback in the draft goes with the 10th pick. Keep in mind though that Sanchez may be second by default, as he is relatively inexperienced and has trouble reading defenses. Still, he would be an immediate upgrade to what the Niners have now, and Mike Singletary will be anxious to bring in “his guy” in his first full season at the helm.

The opening round of the men's NCAA Basketball Tournament provides some of sports most exciting moments pitting small schools against hardwood giants.

It's that time of year again: Basketball games night and day, day and night and after a few hours of sleep, we wake up the next day and go through it all over again. NCAA Tournament play is one of the most enjoyable times of the year for sports fans and bettors, with a seemingly endless stream of action and excitement.

Big name schools often end up playing for the title. Florida of the SEC took home back-to-back national championships by beating UCLA and Ohio State in 2006 and '07. Last year it was Kansas winning another title. In 2005, Illinois, North Carolina, Louisville and Michigan State met in the Final Four, and in recent years we've seen Texas, Syracuse, Indiana, Oklahoma, Duke, Arizona and Maryland. Big names, all of them, with no surprise schools like Pacific, Winthrop, Ohio or Stony Brook ever sneaking in. Large, high profile schools have big athletic budgets and enough scholarships to attract some of the top basketball talent, which is a key to their success.

However, this doesn't mean smaller, lesser-known schools can't compete with the big boys at times, especially when you look at one 40-minute game. There are countless examples for sports bettors. Think for a moment: You don't remember seeing Duke much in the Big Dance two years ago, do you? That's because the Blue Devils got upset in the first round, losing to VCU, 79-77. That same weekend UNLV upset Georgia Tech and Wisconsin on its way to the Sweet 16.

Three years ago the big story was George Mason out of the Colonial Athletic Association. The Patriots made it to the Final Four by knocking off Michigan State, North Carolina and UConn. They were 5, 6 and 8 point dogs in those games. Four years ago in the first round alone, Wisconsin-Milwaukee upset Alabama 83-73, UConn squeaked by Central Florida 77-71 as a 19-point favorite, Bucknell stunned Kansas 64-63, and Vermont took Syracuse to overtime and won 60-57.

Did you forget all those surprises? With so many games in March, it is easy to forget the early rounds. How about tiny Holy Cross few years ago? The Crusaders had to face Dwyane Wade and Marquette in the tournament opener and as a 10-point dog, Holy Cross covered in a close 72-68 game. Holy Cross also gave mighty Kansas, with Drew Gooden, Nick Collison and Coach Roy Williams, a run for their money. At first glance, some of the games look like mismatches, but a good handicapper is skilled in the art of careful analysis and patience.

[articleBanner]bracketcontest2008[/articleBanner]

Every year one or two little known teams make memorable runs. Butler and Cleveland State just played for the Horizon league title. Butler is no stranger to pulling surprises. A few years ago, Butler topped Mississippi State 47-46 and then upset Louisville, 79-71. Which brings up a good point for serious sports bettors: It is not wise to take big favorites on the moneyline. The payoff is poor, and successful sports wagering is as much about money management as it is picking winners. Taking a shot with a big dog who you think might be able to hang in there is much smarter than wagering $900 to win $100, for example, on a minus-900 favorite. Surprising upsets happen all the time.

Several things are happening. One is the old NFL axiom, "On any given Sunday;" one team can beat another, regardless of record or talent. Sometimes the better team simply has a bad night shooting the basketball, or the big underdog can't miss. One of the most memorable upsets came in the 1985 NCAA Finals when Villanova, a +10 dog, upset mighty Georgetown, 66-64. The Wildcats hit 22-of-28 field goals, a sizzling 78%. It would be tough to beat ANY underdog that shoots 78%!

Another reason is that some smaller schools happen to have NBA-caliber talent. Miami of Ohio made a memorable run in 1999 with future NBA talent Wally Szczerbiak. Miami went 24-8 SU/17-14 ATS that season and upset Washington in the NCAA tournament, 59-58 as a +2 dog, beat Utah 66-58 as a +8 dog before falling to Kentucky as a +10 dog. You never know: schools like Cornell, Cleveland State, Xavier, or Northern Iowa just might be showcasing future NBA talent this month.

Other times a small school has a great coach or a collection of talented kids who play tough defense and believe in themselves enough to upset traditional powers. You may recall a March tourney where the Detroit Titans upset UCLA 56-53 and Weber State beat mighty North Carolina 76-74 as a +14 dog! Teams are generally motivated to play in the NCAA tournament, but this isn't always the case with the NIT. Some teams that were hoping to get to the Big Dance are disappointed at being selected for the lower-seeded NIT or CBI and aren't always focused for their best effort.

Sometimes there are look-ahead spots, where a high-seeded team might be looking past an opponent it might not take seriously. That's what appeared to happen in the game I mentioned earlier, Kansas against Holy Cross. Kansas needed a second half push to top the Crusaders 70-59 as a 29-point favorite. It also wouldn't have been the first time a small school upset a big-name program. Don't take big favorites on the money-line and don't simply lay the points on the more famous conference or school without doing your homework, because tourney time is loaded with surprises.

More important than the NFL draft when collegians leave for the pros, National Signing Day takes center stage today as high school seniors make their official declaration for the next step in their careers.  And the hits just keep on coming for Pete Carroll at USC as the Trojans received commitments from the top QB in the nation, Matt Barkley, and the top-ranked defensive end, Devon Kennard of Phoenix.

Wednesday is the day. All across the country, high school seniors are putting pen to paper and signing letters of intent to play college football at their chosen destinations.

National Signing Day is way more important at this level than the NFL Draft is to the pros – it’s not like a college program can fill positions of need with free agents. The betting odds on the futures market go up or down depending on how teams do at the recruiting level.

Most of the top recruits have actually made informal (often public) verbal commitments to their chosen teams. Here are the early winners and losers as I see it:

Winner: USC Trojans
Pete Carroll is easily one of the best recruiters in the game, coming up with stud freshmen year after year. This time, Carroll got a commitment from the No. 1 prospect on the board, quarterback Matt Barkley, as well as top-ranked defensive end Devon Kennard.

Barkley was heavily recruited by rival Pac-10 teams Stanford, UCLA and Washington, which makes this signing even more important, although Barkley isn’t likely to play much in 2009. Kennard comes with the complete package and should make an immediate impact – but with the red flag of his season-ending torn ACL last September.

Winner: LSU Tigers
Life after Nick Saban isn’t so bad. The national champions from the 2007 season are reloading in a big way under Les Miles, locking down the versatile Russell Shepard at quarterback – provided Miles wants to keep him there. Shepard’s passing and running skills are both something to behold.

Tigers supporters are likewise thrilled to welcome No. 1 safety prospect Craig Loston to Baton Rouge after Clemson thought they had a deal way back in May. Loston is also a return specialist and can play a mean wide receiver, too.

Winner: Alabama Crimson Tide
Yes, Saban still has it. The Tide are cleaning up on the recruitment front; among the choice cuts coming into Tuscaloosa are top-rated RB Trent Richardson, 325-pound OT D.J. Fluker, No. 2 ILB Nico Johnson and No. 4 pivot  A.J. McCarron. Richardson has one of the best opportunities among any of the first-year skill players to make a splash in 2009.

Loser: Wisconsin Badgers
Bret Bielema is in a tough spot. His team has gotten progressively worse in the three years since he took over from three-time Rose Bowl winner Barry Alvarez. It’s difficult enough to bring recruits from out of state as it is.

The top frosh on the board for Wisconsin at press time was Jon Budmayr, the No. 16-rated quarterback who committed in May and broke his collarbone in August. At least Budmayr will give Badgers fans something more than just a one-dimensional pocket passer.

Loser: Iowa Hawkeyes
Maybe it’s the state of the economy, or simply the effects of a century of migration to the West Coast, but these are not good times in the Big Ten. Iowa had the fewest commitments in the conference at press time. Local ties helped the Hawkeyes land No. 16-ranked WR Keenan Davis from Cedar Rapids, who could end up at safety. No. 32-ranked RB Brandon Wegher from Sioux City has deceptively good power running skills at 5-foot-11 and 190 pounds.

But coach Kirk Ferentz couldn’t hang onto the top prospect from Iowa, David Barrent, a massive OT at 6-foot-8 and 290 pounds who de-committed in July and will hit the books at Michigan State.

Loser: BYU Cougars
Brigham Young suffers from a similar regional bias as the Badgers and Hawkeyes, but it cuts even deeper across religious and ethnic lines, this being a private institution owned by the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints. The most promising Cougar freshman on the board is No. 4 center Terry Alletto, who committed to coach Bronco Mendenhall in December. But BYU needs help on defense, and losing to Utah in 2008 may have cost them tackles Siosaia Tuipulotu and Latu Heimuli, both choosing the rival Utes.

NFL cappers pay attention to Combine news" src="http://www.sbrforum.com/forum/Pictures/michael_crabtree200x250.jpg"/> For fans and bettors that can't ever get enough football it's a lonely time of the year without any games to watch and wager on.  But for the savvy handicapper, that doesn't mean the football front is completely barren and void of useful information.  Some of the biggest news from the combine in recent days centers on Texas Tech wide receiver Michael Crabtree who could be seeing his draft stock slip due to a foot injury.

The NFL Silly Season is upon us. With no games on the schedule, casual fans are being treated to the usual weak porridge of football “news” stories, like Terrell Owens’ status in Dallas, and Plaxico Burress’ status in New York.

Meanwhile, sharps are tuned into the NFL Network for extended Combine coverage at Lucas Oil Stadium. This is where you can actually learn something important about what might happen in 2009.

The biggest piece of news thus far is the discovery of a light stress fracture in the left foot of Texas Tech receiver Michael Crabtree, the top overall prospect according to Scouts Inc. Crabtree is going to need a screw put in that foot, but he’ll wait until after personal workouts in March to have surgery. That’s how important it is to be seen running the 40-yard dash and performing the other drills in front of NFL scouts.

Crabtree also measured at 6-foot-1, two inches shorter than he was listed at Texas Tech. These two developments could be enough to knock the two-time Biletnikoff Award winner out of the Top 5 of the Draft. Crabtree was projected by Mel Kiper Jr. to go to the Seattle Seahawks with the fourth selection. Now there’s a possibility he’ll fall to the Chicago Bears at No. 18.

Picking a wide receiver early is a risky proposition as it is – just ask the Detroit Lions. They’re wary of taking Crabtree No. 1 after getting burned in years past by wideouts Charles Rodgers and Mike Williams. The Lions might take him anyway – or wait to see if he falls to them at No. 20. Kiper’s first mock draft has Georgia QB Matthew Stafford going to Detroit ahead of USC’s Mark Sanchez, who is projected to go third to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Of course, there’s nothing particularly safe about drafting a quarterback in the first round. The NFL career graveyard is filled with names like Andre Ware (another Detroit bust), Todd Marinovich and Akili Smith. But if a team in need is going to have an instant turnaround, it’s going to come at the most important position on the field. The success of last year’s rookie QB crop will prompt general managers to look for the next Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco.

Which brings us to the meat and potatoes of value handicapping. Ryan’s Atlanta Falcons and Flacco’s Baltimore Ravens went from the dregs of NFL society to the playoffs in just one year. Could Stafford and Sanchez do the same this year for Detroit and Kansas City? These two teams have the longest Super Bowl betting odds in the league – the Chiefs at 100-1 and the Lions at 150-1. That’s a high reward for a reasonably small bet.

Granted, both the Falcons and Ravens were successful franchises before running into unusual problems at QB, none more unusual than Atlanta’s. Quarterback has been the least of Detroit’s issues. The Chiefs, however, have talent at several positions. If it hadn’t been for the injuries to Trent Green and ex-prospect Brodie Croyle, coach Herm Edwards might still have a job.

This is why so many teams prefer to get their hands on the top linemen in college – and Kansas City sure could use some help on the offensive line. The Miami Dolphins wisely took OT Jake Long with the first overall pick last year; their O-line improved from No. 20 to No. 12 in pass protection efficiency, giving veteran free-agent acquisition Chad Pennington the time he needed to lift the Dolphins into the playoffs after going 1-15 in 2008.

Offensive linemen are considered safe picks because they are almost always ready for the NFL game after three or four years of college – and they’re generally the top “character” players on the field, posting the highest scores on the Wonderlic test. Which makes the story of former Alabama Crimson Tide OT Andre Smith that much stranger.

Smith left Indianapolis early and flew to Atlanta to work out with his trainer – except he didn’t inform anyone from the NFL. Nobody knew Smith’s whereabouts when he didn’t show up at the combine on Friday morning. Kiper had Smith going second overall to the St. Louis Rams; that high draft slot and the millions of dollars that come with it are now in question. How long will it be before GPS chip implants become mandatory league apparel?

While the average fan and square bettor can't get enough of the steroids issue, sharp cappers are well past that topic and diving headfirst into roster changes from last season.  It might not seem that long since the Phillies topped the Rays in a sloppy, weather-interrupted World Series, but the new season is now upon us as pitchers and catchers begin to report to training camps in Florida and Arizona.

A fool and his money are soon parted – and it doesn’t get much more foolish than Major League Baseball. No other sport delivers for sharp handicappers like America’s national pastime. The NFL betting public might be getting smarter, but that’s hardly a problem when dealing with the archetypical baseball fan.

That’s the view from my side. The opposing view is that statistical analysis is for nerds, that the traditions of the game are sacred, and that having Alex Rodriguez on your team makes you lose. This cultural divide has been around long before baseball – think of Galileo versus the Vatican. Now think how much money you could have made investing in telescopes.

That opportunity has come and gone, but baseball has its equivalents. The Boston Red Sox have won two World Series since Yale graduate Theo Epstein was hired as GM. Epstein was a disciple of Billy Beane, the Oakland Athletics GM who coaxed 100-win seasons earlier this decade out of a tiny payroll. Beane is also the central figure of Michael Lewis’ Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. I cannot recommend this book enough.

So, while pitchers and catchers report for training camp and the usual suspects spend their time talking steroids, sharp handicappers are paying attention to what’s really supposed to matter: the game itself.

Teams who have chosen to rebuild by hiring nerdy front offices are much more likely to achieve success. That would include the A’s themselves, who are coming off a bad year at 75-86 (minus-5.07 units) after selling high on Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, Nick Swisher and Mark Kotsay in midseason. Keep an eye as well on the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Washington Nationals, the Seattle Mariners and the San Diego Padres to get a leg up on the betting odds.

The pitchers are the most important players to handicap, so let’s take a trip around the league and see what’s new on the mound.

Seattle Mariners
The M’s (61-101 last year, minus-35.98 units) are going to have a much different look in their first season under new GM Jack Zduriencik. He engineered a big three-way trade with the Mets and Indians that brought Aaron Heilman to Seattle, then flipped Heilman last month to the Cubs for lefty Garrett Olson and middle infielder Ronny Cedeño.

Olson is a flyball pitcher (0.77 career groundball/flyball ratio) who will benefit from pitching at Safeco Field, especially with the defensive upgrade of former Cleveland OF Franklin Gutierrez (plus-27 FRAR last year). Cedeño had a plus-24 FRAR in his one full season with the Cubs in 2006; he shores up Seattle’s woeful infield defense, which reveals the running theme of Zduriencik’s offseason moves. All Mariners pitchers should see their numbers improve – as should Under bettors.

Arizona Diamondbacks
The Snakes (82-80, minus-15.28 units) are taking a gamble on Jon Garland. The L.A. Angels went 20-12 last year with Garland on the mound for a profit of 6.74 units, but that was despite his 4.90 ERA (5.74 tRA) and a 1.51 WHIP. He’s not likely to get any better at age 29, and as a slight flyball pitcher (0.99 GB/FB) is a bad fit for Chase Field.

Oakland Athletics
Veteran reliever Russ Springer is now a member of the A’s. This is an excellent move for Oakland. Springer’s OPS against was below .600 in each of his two seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals, and his GB/FB ratio of 0.46 will produce plenty of outs in the yawning foul ground at the freshly de-sponsored Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.

The A’s followed up this move by snagging righty reliever Michael Wuertz from the Cubs. This is a classic Beane move; Wuertz is a rare slider specialist, throwing it over 60 percent of the time. It’s a bit risky, since his 3.63 ERA last year masks a 1.43 WHIP and a 5.43 tRA. But at a mere $1.1 million in 2009, Wuertz is a value addition to Oakland’s middle relief. This is the part of the game where handicappers make their money – every pitch counts, yet the betting public is almost completely ignorant of middle relievers. Their loss is your gain.

NFL Pro Bowl brings out the stars" src="http://www.sbrforum.com/forum/Pictures/pic1.jpg"/> Aloha Stadium will host its 30th consecutive NFL Pro Bowl today, and with it will end the annual tradition of gathering the stars in Hawaii.  Bread gives it quite the sendoff with his own cast.

The NFL Pro Bowl takes place on Sunday at 4:30 PM.  It will be the last time that the event will be held in Hawaii.  In light of their final appearance there, I called upon some of my friends with ties to our 50th state to assist me in my betting strategy. 

Our panelists:  BJ Penn

A round table discussion was held between BJ Penn, Magnum P.I., Jack Lord, Tattoo and the Pacific version of myself, Hawaiian Bread.  The results were quite fascinating.

BJ Penn:  I hurt all over.  Can someone please tell me the spread?

Magnum:  I did some private investigating, and I uncovered the line.  The NFC is favored by 2½ and the over/under is 65.

Tattoo:  Who’s play’n?!  Who’s play’n?!

Jack Lord:  What the hell are you doing here Tattoo?  Fantasy Island wasn’t located in Hawaii.

Tattoo:  Close enough.

Hawaiian Bread:  This is going to be a long day.  OK, who do you guys like in this game?

Magnum:  I did some private investigating.  I discovered that the Pro Bowl has been played in Honolulu since 1980.  This is the last year it will be here.  Next year it will be in Miami.  I went to Miami once with Rick and T.C.  I played beach volleyball and made love to beautiful women.

Magnum, PI

Lord:  You’re not even a real detective.  I’m a real detective!  Have you ever met Ricardo Montalban or Gavin MacLeod?  I have!!  Those are legends!  Who the hell is John Hillerman anyways?

Tattoo:  I’ve met Montalban.  He thought he would be funny once and asked me for a “small” favor.  I punched him in the shin.

HB:  We are getting WAY off track here.  BJ, you are a Hawaii native.  Do you have any thoughts here?

Penn:  Well I have caught many of the games played at Aloha Stadium.  I know that the AFC and NFC are tied with 19 wins apiece.  OH GOD PLEASE STOP HITTING ME!  Sorry.  I really enjoyed last year’s game where Adrian Peterson rushed for two touchdowns and was named as the MVP.

HB:  I remember that.  I do enjoy watching NFC teams play more than the AFC.  It’s really hard for me to figure out who has an edge in this game.

Magnum:  I did some private investigating.  I discovered that Brett Favre pulled out of the game.  This greatly helps out the AFC’s chances at a win.

Lord:  I was 31 years old back when Favre was a rookie.  Is he really still playing?

HB:  He is, but the starting quarterbacks here are Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning.  Also seeing playing time will be Drew Brees and Eli Manning for the NFC, Jay Cutler and Kerry Collins for the AFC.

Penn:  On account of my face being broken, it hurts too much to try to think about who has the advantage as far as conference.  Can we just talk about the total?  Don’t you think that the lax attitude of the game could lead to a high scoring game?

Magnum:  I did some private investigating.  I discovered that since the year 2000, the average points scored in the Pro Bowl is 69.  T.C. gets really excited when I say that number for some reason.  But perhaps with the O/U set at 65, the Over might be a safe bet?

Tattoo:  I say bet the Under.

Lord:  Of course you do, Shorty.  I like the Over here.  I know that Warner has his two favorite targets starting the game with him – Boldin and Fitzgerald.  They should be good for at least two early touchdowns between them.  Hey did I ever tell you guys about the time I got lei’d in my trailer on the set of Hawaii Five-O?  Wait, where was I again?

Tattoo:  THE GAME!  THE GAME!

Jack Lord

Lord:  Ah yes.  Since Magnum has come up with this random year of 2000, I can tell you that since the new millennium, there have been seven cases of QB to WR Pro Bowl touchdowns from the same team.  Peyton to Harrison has happened twice, but Harrison won’t be there this year.

Tattoo:  Reggie Wayne!  Reggie Wayne!

Lord:  Of course!  Manning to Wayne!  I also like the thought of Cutler coming in the game late and tossing to Brandon Marshall.  Those guys had a pretty good year together.

HB:  I like the way you’re thinking Jack.  BJ, your thoughts?

Penn:  Ow.

Tattoo

Tattoo:  Le’Ron McClain is a great fullback for short yardage plays.

Magnum:  I did some private investigating.  There aren’t many short yardage plays in the Pro Bowl.  Sorry.

HB:  I’m liking your train of thought today Jack Lord.  The Over seems like a good call.

Lord:  Have you heard of the small Hawaiian island I’maka’u’monee?  Stick with me Hawaiian Bread.

Magnum:  Knock, knock.

HB:  Who’s there?

Magnum:  Zak DeOssie.

HB:  Who???

Magnum:  I did some investigating, but I have no freaking clue.  Apparently he’s playing in this game.

Tattoo:  So are you taking the Under boss?

HB:  No I am definitely going to play the Over here, Tattoo.  Even though this game sports some spectacular defensive players like Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, Albert Haynesworth, James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, and Julius Peppers, nobody wants to see anyone hurt for this event.  The defenses will play tough, but will never go that extra mile and the points should come easy.

Hawaii Bread

Lord:  So what you’re saying is, 69, comes easy.  Got it.

Penn:  I have 69 broken bones.  I need a medic.

HB:  Georges St-Pierre can’t hurt you anymore BJ.  Thanks for your help fellas.  The Over it is.  Last football game of the year, hopefully a winner.  See you next year in Miami.

Magnum:  I did some investigating, and there is no way you can lose this.

Lord:  Screw you Selleck.  ‘In & Out’ SUCKED!

Hawaiian bread, sweet bread, French bread.  We got all the bread you need RIGHT HERE.

And so just like that, the NFL season is finished.  And what a finish it was as the Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals combined for 23 points – 16 by the Cards – over the last half of the final quarter of the season.  In the end, it was Pittbusrgh taking home their sixth Super Bowl title with a 27-23 win.  Here's a quick recap of the game and the season, with a look ahead to next year.

Who needs Hines Ward when you have Santonio Holmes?

Holmes’ spectacular seven-yard touchdown catch with 0:35 on the clock lifted the Pittsburgh Steelers to a 27-23 win over the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII on Sunday, capping an eight-play, 78-yard scoring drive in the dying minutes.

Holmes finished with nine receptions for 131 yards to take home Super Bowl MVP honors for the Steelers, who failed to cover despite the late heroics.

For all the dramatics of the fourth quarter – which included a 64-yard TD pass from Kurt Warner to Larry Fitzgerald that put the Cardinals ahead 23-20 with 2:37 to go – the real nail biting for bettors happened moments earlier. Trailing 20-7 and with the payday for its backers in jeopardy, Warner connected with Fitzgerald on a jump ball from the 1-yard line with 7:37 left, putting Arizona in position to cover.

That’s exactly what the Cards did as 6½-point underdogs at most books, as 58% of bettors who wagered on the spread sided with the eventual winners ATS. The finale also played over the 46½-point number listed by most outlets, although the total was as high as 48 points at various locations throughout the past two weeks.

Holmes’ strong play down the stretch was the difference on the field for Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers, who went away from the banged-up Ward during the second half. Ward caught two balls for 43 yards despite a sprained MCL for Pittsburgh, which got a Super Bowl-record 100-yard interception TD return from James Harrison to end the first half.

Home sweet home?
The 2008 season demonstrated oddsmakers might be putting too much stock in homefield advantage, especially as franchises continue to move into bigger stadiums with less history and personality. Road teams went an impressive 143-118-6 ATS this season, good enough for an almost 55% win rate. Away favorites were even better at 46-34-2 ATS, although the trend is representative of a much smaller statistical sample.

Totals? Oddsmakers once again proved bettors should tread lightly and pick their spots when playing the over/under: NFL games played over the listed number 129 times and under on 128 occasions. This amounts to a de facto perfect season for the gentlemen setting the lines.

AFC turned upside down
In a conference that was supposed to be all about New England, San Diego, Indianapolis, and Jacksonville, eventual Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh and upstart Tennessee stole the show.

While the Patriots (11-5, 9-7 ATS) had a respectable season without Tom Brady, the Steelers (12-4, 9-7 ATS) rolled to the Super Bowl title behind one of the best defenses in league history. The Titans (13-3, 12-4 ATS) had the conference’s best record to go along with their sterling mark against the number, which matched that of resurgent Baltimore (11-5, 12-4 ATS).

Profitable Giants fizzle out late
The defending Super Bowl champs were the best play against the spread in the NFC, but the Giants (12-4, 12-4 ATS) never recovered at the window following Plaxico Burress’ injury and team-imposed suspension. New York fell to Philadelphia (9-6-1, 10-6 ATS) in the conference divisional round, while Carolina (12-4, 9-6-1 ATS) suffered the same fate as the Giants.

It looked as though the second-seeded Panthers were set to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but they ran into Arizona (9-7, 9-7 ATS) on their way to Tampa Bay. The Cardinals defeated reborn Atlanta (11-5, 9-7 ATS) in the NFC wildcard round before their wins over Carolina and then Philly, which outlasted Dallas (9-7, 7-9 ATS) and Washington (8-8, 6-8-2 ATS) in the ultra-competitive NFC East.

In need of a bailout
Jacksonville (5-11, 4-12 ATS) was the biggest disappointment for NFL handicappers in 2008. After being picked by many preseason prognosticators as a sleeper pick on the Super Bowl futures board, the Jaguars started the season in the red and stayed there.

Denver (8-8, 4-11-1 ATS) wasn’t far behind Jacksonville in draining backers’ pockets, although Cleveland (4-12, 6-9-1 ATS) probably garnered more negative press than either of the aforementioned money losers. The only reason the Browns didn’t finish at the bottom of the pro pigskin moneylist was because bettors caught up to their dismal ways by midseason.

It's finally here, Super Bowl XLIII.  After a two week layoff, and a mostly quiet one at that compared to previous Super Bowls, Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals w