The holiday weekend kicks off a lot of great horse racing ahead this season, with Jersey's Monmouth Park holding the UN Handicap with Presious Passion part of the field.

July 4 is always one of the biggest racing days of the year and truly the “starting gate” of some great racing action for the summer.  If you have been getting barbequed on baseball bets while you wait for football to start, be sure to leave some of that bankroll aside for some horse racing wagers during the next couple of months.

Saturday’s action for July 4 is headlined by the United Nations Handicap at Monmouth Park.  I have thoughts on that race, as well as Belmont Park’s Suburban Handicap and the Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs.  Plenty of good undercard races on these cards as well, but I will stick to thoughts on the big money today with my top three choices in each.

Monmouth Park’s United Nation Handicap has a field of 9 going 1-3/8 miles on the turf at the Jersey Shore:
#7 Presious Passion is a solid choice to win this one as he just came off a winner by a nose on the same turf last month at 1-1/8 miles.  No worse than a second place finish all year certainly earns respect of the betting public and Trujillo has been aboard for that entire run.  He will also be carrying a couple of pounds less than those recent races and should be able to pull out another big time speed figure like the 101 in two of his last three races.  Presious Passion could go off at less than the morning line of 9-2 odds, but I feel this is still enough value to take him.

#2 Strike A Deal has tossed in a couple of clunkers lately but at 8-1 odds is worth including among my top three choices here.  This horse finished in second place when running in last year’s United Nations Handicap when the turf was yielding and should be just as competitive in this one.  This will be the third race after a long layoff and as the saying goes – third time could be the charm here.  It is all just a question of regaining form from the past and at 8-1 or higher, I will take the chance that it happens.

#9 Better Talk Now has not had a victory recently but has a lot of experience in this annual race and just hit the board in the Manhattan Handicap at Belmont Park going 1-1/4 miles on the turf. At Belmont, Better Talk Now hit his highest speed figure of 101 since nearly a year ago showing the kind of form that got him in second and third place finishes last summer.  Despite having the worst post in the race, this could be a more favorable spot here and should be able to finish in the money again with a nice closing punch. 

Belmont Park’s Suburban Handicap is 1-1/4 miles on the dirt and a field of 10 hit the track for this one:
#2 Dry Martini has Edgar Prado aboard and comes off a solid effort two months ago winning at 1-1/8 miles here at Belmont.  Although this horse has not hit a 100 or higher for a speed figure as others in the race have, I feel this is a nice choice at 6-1 morning line odds for trainer Barclay Tagg.  A two month layoff might concern some, but having a good trainer makes up for that.  Dry Martini has had a consistent closing kick in lots of recent races and with Prado aboard, he will know when to make his move for the winner’s circle here.

#1 Finallymadeit is my biggest longshot choice of the day at 20-1 morning line odds.  Although fading badly in the Stephen Foster Handicap last month, this horse has won two of his last four races with both being long distances.  Back in May a victory in the Memorial Day Handicap garnered a wire-to-wire 104 speed figure, and 116 pounds will also be the lowest weight that Finallymadeit has had to carry all year.  Although not the most consistent horse of the bunch, at 20-1 odds I certainly feel there is more than enough there to take a chance for the big payday.

#8 Cool Coal Man has a strong trainer-jockey combination here with Nick Zito and John Velazquez making him worth taking a serious look at.  With this horse’s last race being a strong five length win at 1-1/16 miles, the odds will not be the highest here but the morning line of 6-1 is still an overlay in my book.  Prior to that victory, two solid second place finishes occurred for Cool Coal Man – including one with Velazquez aboard.  Speed figures of 103 and 106 led this horse to victory twice this year and the right trip can make it happen again on Saturday.

The Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs is a one mile turf race with a field of 8:
#1 Inca King is my top choice here and some good value at an 8-1 morning line.  A beaten favorite in his last two races, trainer Steven Asmussen is still stepping on the gas pedal here and is hoping for a victory like last year when Inca King stayed in front wire to wire on the Churchill turf at 1-1/16 miles. This horse likes the turf at Churchill as he has the third most starts on the surface and track, including a total of three victories.  Inca King will also be carrying five pounds less than his last two races and eight pounds less than the favorite, Thorn Song.

#5 Mr. Sidney had a horrible race on the dirt at Belmont last month, but is back on the turf in this one looking for a score.  Kent Desormeaux has enjoyed three recent victories aboard Mr. Sidney and could be finding the winner’s circle here again.  Trainer Bill Mott has tried to keep the competition level fairly high for this horse and looks to repeat the one mile turf win he produced at Keeneland in the Maker’s  Mark here on Saturday.  Although the 4-1 odds here are low enough to consider passing, I feel it is a good enough price for me in a smaller 8 horse field like this and to back Mr. Sidney at the betting windows among my top three choices in the Firecracker.

#6 Passager has had three straight speed figures of 100 and is a force to be reckoned with here despite not having won a race yet this year. This horse was a strong contender when running in several races over in France and may finally have the right spot for a victory in the US since changing continents in February. In the Maker’s Mark at Keeneland, only Mr. Sidney was able to beat Passager and this rematch should find both of them hitting the board once again. Passager has also not had great trips in several recent races and has to go somewhat wide on several occasions, but at a morning line of 8-1 odds, I will take the chance a good one comes here.

I hope everyone on SBR has a great July 4 weekend!  Enjoy all of the food, fireworks, and fun at the betting windows!

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Joel Pineiro should get plenty of run support from the Cardinals hitters tonight with St. Louis travels to take on Homer Bailey and the Cincinnati Reds.

Tonight Joel Pineiro and the St. Louis Cardinals face the ever improving Cincinnati Reds and Homer Bailey at the Great American Ball Park.

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In two starts this season Bailey is showing major control issues with a 5/13 strikeout/walk ratio along with a high 8.68 ERA. Pitching at the Great American Ball Park hasn't been kind to Bailey who gave up six earned runs in just 4.1 innings against Cleveland in his lone home start this year, pretty much picking up from last season's struggles here in the Queen City.

In his two career starts against the Cards he has yet to make it past the fourth inning. Bailey has been annihilated by St. Louis batters allowing 12 earned runs with four strikeouts and eight walks.

Pineiro has been amazing with a 1.59 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP in his last three starts. He has been solid all year with a 3.44 ERA but has fallen victim to lack of run support which is the reason for the 6-9 record. Tonight, given the fact of the struggling opposing pitcher on the hill, we don't see that happening. Pinerio has been good giving up just 10 earned runs in four career starts in Cincy. The Reds are batting just .240 on the season vs. righthanders and we don't seem them getting much off of Pinerio tonight.

Bailey hasn't won a start at the Great American Ball Park since September 2007 and the Reds are 1-9 in his last 10 starts overall. Oddsmakers are a little generous with this "soft" moneyline and we think it should be more in the -150 to -160 range. We'll grab the value and expect the Cardinals bats to wake up tonight.

Free Pick: Cardinals -130

Though the two teams sit just a game apart in the NL East, this weekend's series between the Mets and Phillies just doesn't have that marquee matchup feeling.  With their rosters depleted by injuries New York and Philadelphia now find the Marlins slipping between them and the Atlanta Braves hot on their heels.  Both teams enter with slumping offenses that could come alive against some of the arms scheduled to pitch.

It goes without saying you should expect fireworks this weekend. Just don’t wait around for them to happen during the three-game series between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Judging by the way the two frontrunners in the National League East are playing right now, you’d be lucky to see a security flare make it out of the infield.

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New York Mets (+120 series) at Philadelphia Phillies (-140 series)
The Phillies (39-37, -3.91 units) have one of the best offenses in the league, but not over a recent 10-game stretch during which they’ve dropped eight of 10 games against the moneyline. Philadelphia is fourth in baseball in runs per game (5.23), but is batting only .221 over its last 10 outings, including .199 against righthanded pitching.

That doesn’t bode well for Friday night’s Game 1 (7:05 PM ET) with the Mets (39-39, -1.66 units) sending righty Livan Hernandez (5-3, 4.04 ERA) to the mound. Hernandez has faced some hard luck over his last three starts, as New York has failed to cash despite his 3.00 ERA. If Hernandez continues to pitch well, it’ll be good news for the Mets, who are priced as +125 underdogs for the series opener. The Phils are on the baseball betting odds board as -145 chalk for Game 1, with the total listed at 10.

It’s not as if New York has been lighting it up at the plate, either, although it has been dealing with a bevy of injuries to many of its best players. The Mets are hitting only .230 over their last 10 games, down from their .273 team average (fourth in MLB) on the season. Carlos Beltran (bruised right knee), Jose Reyes (right hamstring tear), and Carlos Delgado (hip surgery) are all on the 15-day disabled list, leaving David Wright to fend for himself in the Big Apple.

Desperate for pitching, Philly hands the ball to Rodrigo Lopez (0-0, 0.00 ERA) on Friday night. Lopez last took the hill on a major league mound back in 2007, when he went 5-4 with a 4.42 ERA for the Colorado Rockies. The righthander can’t be much worse than the arms Charlie Manuel’s been throwing out there this season: Phillies starters have a 5.31 ERA on the season, including a bloated 5.72 ERA at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

Veteran southpaw Jamie Moyer (6-6, 6.05 ERA) has been one of the culprits, with a retire-now 7.15 ERA at home this season. He’ll get the call in the middle game of the series on Saturday afternoon (4:05 PM ET), while New York sends Fernando Nieve (3-1, 2.25 ERA) to the bump for his fifth start of the year.

There’s a potentially profitable betting angle with Moyer going for Philadelphia on Saturday. Moyer is a perfect 4-0 this season when he starts during the day, with the Phils 5-0 against the moneyline on those occasions. It doesn’t hurt that the Mets are batting a mere .204 against lefties over their last 10 games, which speaks volumes to the effect the injured triumvirate of Beltran, Reyes, and Delgado has on the Mets offense.

Johan Santana (9-6, 3.34 ERA) goes up against Joe Blanton (4-4, 5.08 ERA) in Sunday’s series finale (1:35 PM ET), with the Mets ace looking to get back on track after some uncharacteristically average outings. Santana has also been overvalued away from Citi Field this season, with a 3-4 record and 5.18 ERA on the road.

Like Moyer and the rest of the Phils starting rotation, Blanton hasn’t enjoyed life in his home ballpark. Blanton has a 6.05 ERA at Citizens Bank this year, contributing to Philadelphia’s money-bleeding ways for backers when it plays at home. The Phillies come into the weekend series only 13-22 at home this season, down -17.92 units for backers. That’s the second-worst mark on the MLB moneylist, with Philly trailing only the Arizona Diamondbacks as a home wager.

New York leads the season series 4-3, and that includes a split in a two-game series in Philadelphia in May. The Phillies took two of three from the Mets the last time the rivals hooked up at Citi Field last month, with both paydays coming in extra innings.

Once again we find the Williams Sisters, Venus and Serena, facing off for in the 2009 Wimbledon Championship.  Venus enters the match looking to defend her 2007-08 titles and win her sixth title on the grass while Serena is looking for title No. 3 in her career.  On the men's side, Roger Federer and Andy Murray are still on course to square off in the finals with the Federer Express looking for Grand Slam No. 16.

Isn’t money wonderful?

Just as I called it last time we talked tennis, Venus and Serena Williams will meet in Saturday’s final of the 2009 Wimbledon Championships in jolly old London town. That’s six wins apiece for each sister – although Venus beat No. 13 Ana Ivanovic by retirement in the fourth round, so no payout there at most books. We’ll call it 11 units in earnings, enough to keep us rolling in kebabs and Old Speckled Hen for quite some time.

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That’s the extent of my bragging. Picking the Williams sisters to reach the final of any event is like picking water to run downhill. Third favorite and 2004 Wimbledon champion Maria Sharapova had very little chance at +900 to win in 2009, given her shoulder problems and her very light schedule since losing to No. 154-ranked Alla Kudryavtseva in the second round of last year’s Wimbledon.

I’m also tempering my enthusiasm because Serena came very, very close to taking those kebabs off my table. She found herself in an incredible semifinal battle on Thursday against world’s No. 4 Elena Dementieva, needing almost three hours and saving a match point before prevailing 6-7 (4), 7-5, 8-6 as a -600 favorite. Yikes. Venus, on the other hand, made a grand total of one unforced error in her 6-1, 6-0 cakewalk over No. 1 Dinara Safina, also as a -600 chalk.

It feels like the horse has been let out of the barn a little early. Serena had the shorter betting odds when the championship futures market opened, priced at +230 compared to +300 for Venus. Now that Dementieva has put her through the wringer, Serena is a +115 underdog to win Saturday’s matchup against her older sister (-135). I had Venus at even money to win last year’s all-Williams final, based on the compatibility of her style of play with the grass courts of SW19. I’m taking Venus again this year even with more risk involved.

It’s not that difficult a choice. Venus has the strongest serve on the women’s circuit – 111 mph on average at last year’s Wimbledon final, harder than both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. She and Serena both have amazingly powerful groundstrokes, but the speed of Venus’ serve, combined with her three-inch height advantage over Serena and wingspan to match, is why she has five Wimbledon titles compared to Serena’s two.

As for the men, it’s time to show some love to Andy Roddick. I’ve been fading him all tournament, and he keeps hanging around, earning himself a spot in the semifinals against Andy Murray. But the carousel should definitely stop turning at this point. Murray is a -330 favorite to reach Sunday’s final, and he’s 6-2 lifetime against Roddick, including a second-round victory back at the 2006 Wimbledon Championships. Roddick is also coming off a withering five-set, four-hour victory over Lleyton Hewitt in the quarterfinals.

We’ve been anticipating a Wimbledon final between Murray and five-time champion Roger Federer from the get-go. Each has done his part for the chalkeaters by winning five straight matches for another quick 10 units of profit. Federer is now 70-1 on grass dating back to 2003, the only exception being the loss to Nadal in last year’s brilliant final. He’s pegged at -1400 to make it 71-1 over No. 34 Tommy Haas (+750), who hasn’t beaten Federer in 10 tries since the 2002 Australian Open.

Now the fun part. Federer was -130 at the open of the championship futures market; Murray was +250. As a straight-up prediction, I would gladly choose Federer to win his sixth Wimbledon title, but not at these odds. Murray has won his last four matches against Federer since dropping the final at the 2008 U.S. Open. He’s 6-2 lifetime against the man many consider to be the Greatest of All Time. The trick is that all eight matches were on the hardcourt.

How will the pride of Dunblane, Scotland fare on Federer’s favorite surface? At two inches taller and with an improving serve, my money stays with Murray.

Anthony Kim fired a first-round, 8-under 62 on Thursday to take the lead at the AT&T National.  Lurking just two shots back entering play on Friday is tourney host Tiger Woods.

Welcome to the dog days of summer. It’s time for the lazier sports to take over – golf being about as leisurely as it gets. Mark Twain called it “a good walk spoiled,” but then again, Twain never got to play the swank Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, Md.

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On Thursday, 120 men will tee off at Congressional for the third annual AT&T National, hosted by none other than Tiger Woods. He’s the prohibitive favorite at 3-2 to win his own event after missing out last year due to knee surgery. Defending champion Anthony Kim is 22-1; he has yet to win on the PGA Tour since taking last year’s National. The inaugural 2007 winner, K.J. Choi, is 40-1 and looking for his first Tour title since the 2008 Sony Open in Hawaii.

Woods finished sixth at the 2007 National, and he’s coming off a sixth-place finish at last month’s U.S. Open on Long Island – which matches his sixth-place finish at the Masters. Clearly the devil is at work here. Nothing but first place seems to be good enough for those who believe there are demons in Woods’ swing that can only be exorcised by firing swing coach Hank Haney.

Sharp handicappers are a bit more realistic about what they’re buying when they make a bet on Woods. He’s won two of his eight tournaments this year, which is consistent with his lifetime success rate of 29 percent. Taking Woods only at betting odds of 4-1 or longer would be one long-term approach; however, those odds are difficult to find these days. Woods has finished in the Top 10 in 18 of his last 19 events dating back to 2007, with an outstanding nine victories among them. Using that sample size, 5-2 odds or longer would have been profitable.

If there’s an argument for supporting Woods this week at 3-2, it’s the quality of the rest of the field. Only three other players from the official world’s Top 10 will be in action at Congressional: No. 3 Paul Casey, No. 9 Jim Furyk (16-1) and No. 10 Vijay Singh (33-1). Furyk is 0-for-45 on the Tour since the 2007 Canadian Open. Singh looks like a better value on paper at 0-for-17 dating back to the 2008 Deutsche Bank Championship – if you ignore the fact that Singh’s three wins last year all happened while Woods was rehabbing his knee. Take away those three results, and Singh’s last Tour victory was 57 tournaments ago at the 2007 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The other names at the top of the 2009 National odds list are a veritable Who’s That of the golf world. Hunter Mahan, who shares second-banana status with Furyk at 16-1, is the No. 39-ranked golfer on the planet. Not to take anything away from his talent level; Mahan finished tied with Woods at the U.S. Open, and has made the cut in all 16 of his Tour events thus far. But he hasn’t won any of them. Mahan’s first and only title was at the 2007 Travelers Championship, and Woods was not there.

Tied with Kim at 22-1 are Casey, who took first place in the Shell Houston Open in April, and Sean O’Hair, who won the Quail Hollow Championship in May. But Woods wasn’t in Houston. In fact, O’Hair is the only one of these three ever to beat Woods on the PGA Tour. Casey did outplay Woods at the 2006 World Match Play Championship on the European Tour, where he’s done most of the damage in his career, but that’s it. O’Hair beat Woods by two strokes at Quail Hollow.

The most recent man to triumph over Woods is U.S. Open champion Lucas Glover (33-1). He moved up from No. 71 to No. 18 in the rankings after winning his first major and his second PGA Tour event since turning pro in 2001. Flash in the pan, or just a really steep learning curve? Late-round television coverage will reveal all starting at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, on the Golf Channel for the first two rounds before moving to CBS this weekend.

Joe Paterno, 82-years young, returns to guide the Penn State Nittany Lions while sophomore QB Terrelle Pryor will lead Ohio State with the Buckeyes the favorites to take the conference title.

The Big Ten has taken its lumps. The program at Michigan is rebuilding after a 3-9 campaign (2-10 ATS), the most losses in a season since the Wolverines were born in 1879. Ohio State was beaten in the BCS Championship Game two years running before losing last year’s Fiesta Bowl to Texas. Out of 11 teams in the conference, only four were profitable for handicappers in 2008.

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Buy low, sell high. The Big Ten is in good shape for a rebound season in 2009; teams like Iowa are poised to move up from the middle class to challenge for the conference title, and featherweights like Indiana have taken the steps necessary to bulk up their chances of playing a competitive brand of football.

Our capsule preview of all 11 teams (including NCAA championship betting odds, and listed in order of predicted finish) will help you get an early start on the gold rush.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1): The Buckeyes are looking forward to a full year with sophomore Terrelle Pryor (12 TD passing, six TD rushing, four interceptions) at quarterback. There’s been enough turnover on the offensive line to be worried, but the defense is strong as always.

2. Penn State Nittany Lions (30-1): Arguably a better value on the futures market; definitely undervalued last year at 7-4-1 ATS and denied a spot in the Rose Bowl. QB Daryll Clark (19 TDs, six INTs) was the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year in 2008. They get to play OSU at home this year.

3. Iowa Hawkeyes (100-1): The Hawkeyes (9-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) finished No. 17 in the nation in efficiency according to Brian Fremeau’s advanced stats – one spot ahead of Ohio State. The under was 7-4-1 for this brilliant defense, which remains largely intact for 2009.

4. Michigan State Spartans (75-1): The Spartans are returning 15 starters, but there is some concern over the team’s future at quarterback, where Kirk Cousins and Oklahoma transfer Keith Nichol battle for the top job. Another nine-win season should still be in the cards for MSU.

5. Wisconsin Badgers (100-1): Wisconsin (7-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) took a step back last year after being touted as a fringe BCS bowl candidate. QB Dustin Sherer will be under center from the get-go after taking over from Allan Evridge last October, and he’ll work behind a solid offensive line.

6. Illinois Fighting Illini (75-1): This team was lucky to get to the Rose Bowl in 2007 and played like it in 2008 at 5-7 (4-7 ATS). We’re looking for a more consistent performance on offense from QB Juice Williams (22 TDs, 16 INTs) in his sophomore campaign.

7. Minnesota Golden Gophers (150-1): The Gophers have most of their defense back and should benefit from playing on campus at the new TCF Bank Stadium. The switch to new coordinator Tim Davis and his emphasis on the running game should also help the Gophers cash in.

8. Michigan Wolverines (150-1): Let’s cut coach Rich Rodriguez a little slack here – if only from a betting perspective. This is his second year in charge and his first with true freshman Tate Forcier at quarterback. The schedule is favorable with just four road games, Iowa being the toughest opponent of the four.

9. Northwestern Wildcats (Field, 40-1): Northwestern surprised most everyone by winning nine games (7-5 ATS), four of them by a TD or less. This year it’s up to QB Mike Kafka to make the leap after three years of holding a clipboard for C.J. Bacher.

10. Purdue Boilermakers (150-1): This is a major rebuilding year for the Boilers with Danny Hope at head coach and sweeping changes on both sides of the ball. Many of Hope’s young players are NFL prospects who hope to mature quickly as the season wears on.

11. Indiana Hoosiers (Field): Things can’t get much worse after last year’s 3-9 finish (2-8-1 ATS). There is hope for upward mobility on defense with Greg Middleton and Jammie Kirlew on the line and Matt Mayberry at middle linebacker.

This series has already seen some fine pitching,  Unfortunately for the Cardinals, it's been Giants hurlers that have gotten the job done with Tim Lincecum blanking St. Louis on Monday and Randy Johnson besting Chris Carpenter last night.  Now the Redbirds turn to big Adam Wainwright as they look to avoid being swept at home for the first time since the Rockies came to town in early June.  ESPN brings you the action beginning at 8:15 (ET).

It’s all about pitching.

When it comes to baseball, there is one man on the diamond who has the outcome literally in the palm of his hand. Everybody else is merely reacting to what the pitcher is doing. Not every baseball GM or ardent statistician will agree with this assessment, but the unforgiving bottom line has trained handicappers to pay more attention to the guys on the mound than anyone else.

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We’ve already seen some tremendous pitching in the series between the San Francisco Giants (42-34, plus-8.86 units) and the St. Louis Cardinals (41-38, minus-3.70 units). As it should be; the Giants are tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for first in the majors with a team ERA of 3.61. St. Louis is tied with the Atlanta Braves for fourth overall with a 3.89 ERA. But the pitching displays in the first two games of their series at the new Busch Stadium were rather one-sided in favor of the Giants. Both games went Over.

We’ll see if the Cardinals can do better Wednesday night, starting at 8:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. Adam Wainwright (3.51 ERA, 4.00 xFIP) has a 10-6 team record for St. Louis, good enough for 1.38 units of profit. This is 6-foot-7 and 230 pounds of raw power on the loose; Wainwright is No. 10 in the National League with 89 strikeouts, and he’s gone at least six innings in each of his last 12 starts.

The Giants respond with Matt Cain (2.57 ERA, 4.44 xFIP), who has gone from the outhouse to the penthouse in the MLB money standings. In 2007, even with a solid ERA of 3.65 (4.66 xFIP), Cain was dead last out of 315 starting pitchers with 18.03 units of debt on a team record of 9-23. Fast forward to 2009, and Cain finds himself No. 6 overall with 6.19 units of profit on a team record of 11-4.

So you may have noticed the gaping crevasse between Cain’s ERA and his xFIP, which is indeed higher than Wainwright’s. The Giants have somehow managed to strand 86.7 percent of runners this year with Cain on the mound. This is the highest percentage for any starting pitcher in the majors – Kevin Millwood of the Texas Rangers is next at 85.9 percent. This is also highly unsustainable. More of Cain’s runners are almost certain to cash in as the innings accumulate and his left-on-base percentage regresses to something closer to last year’s 75.3.

Wainwright’s 76.7 LOB percentage is much more consistent with his performance since joining the majors in 2005, the same year as Cain. It’s fair to conclude that Wainwright is likely to have a better night on the mound than Cain. But that’s judging by defense-independent criteria. When you put the defense back in, you can start to see how the Giants have been able to keep the money taps flowing. The Cardinals are No. 8 in the majors with 53 errors; San Fran is No. 24 with just 37 errors. Wainwright has seen five unearned runs go up on the board compared to one for Cain.

The Giants also make it easier for Cain to earn the W with a bullpen ERA of 3.39, or No. 6 overall. The Cards are ranked No. 12 with a 3.97 ERA, and they’ve tossed seven innings of relief over the past two games compared to 3.2 innings for San Francisco. The one positive for St. Louis is that closer Ryan Franklin (0.93 ERA, 3.89 xFIP) is fresh after three days of rest and relaxation. Franklin hasn’t allowed a run, earned or otherwise, in his last 11 appearances dating back to May 20.

To pay lip service to the hitters, we should mention that both teams are pretty bad in this department. St. Louis is No. 19 in the majors with a .735 OPS, and newly acquired Mark DeRosa (.799 OPS with Cleveland this year) might not be able to play third base after reporting a “little tweak” in his left wrist during an at-bat on Tuesday. Joe Thurston (.708 OPS) is a likely candidate to play Wednesday. The Giants are No. 28 in team OPS at an even .700.

The betting odds have St. Louis pegged as a -135 home favorite with a total of 7.5 runs. The Giants are 4-1 against the Cards this year and 12-5 over the past three seasons. Again, despite all that great pitching, the over is 9-2 in their last 11 meetings.

It was just two seasons ago that the AFC South was arguably the best division top to bottom.  Now there's a lot more bottom than top to this foursome.  Peyton Manning and the Colts are once again the cream of the group, with Indianapolis preparing for life without Tony Dungy.  It should be a real dogfight behind the Colts with the Houston Texans possibly sneaking past both Jacksonville and Tennessee for second-best.

What has happened to the AFC South? This used to be the place. Just two years ago, there were no losing teams in this division – SU or ATS – and everyone but the Houston Texans finished the regular season with at least 10 victories.

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Then the bottom fell out of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who went 5-11 (4-12 ATS) last year. Now the Tennessee Titans, the defending division champions at 13-3 (12-4 ATS), are threatening to slip out of Super Bowl contention after letting their most important player walk in free agency.

At least the AFC South still has the Indianapolis Colts. They might not have Tony Dungy as their head coach, but the talent on the field is still enough to challenge for a title. Here are the Super Bowl betting odds at the open and at press time for all four teams in the division.

• Indianapolis 8-1, 11-1
• Tennessee 12-1, 16-1
• Houston 40-1, 30-1
• Jacksonville 30-1, 38-1

Not a lot of positive vibes for anyone other than the Texans, who have finished 8-8 in each of the past two years with Matt Schaub as the No. 1 starting quarterback. Their mobility in the futures market foreshadows what is shaping up to be the first winning season in the franchise’s history – which dates all the way back to the 2002 campaign.

Schaub (15 TD passes, 10 INTs in 2008) has only made 11 starts in each of the past two seasons, receiving considerable back-up from Sage Rosenfels along the way. If Schaub goes down again, Detroit cast-off Dan Orlovsky (eight TDs, eight INTs) should provide credible relief this year. This was the No. 11-ranked offense in the league in 2008 according to the efficiency stats at Football Outsiders; the No. 29-ranked defense welcomes free-agent recruits Antonio Smith at end and Cato June at linebacker, plus a host of draft picks led by first-round LB Brian Cushing from USC.

Compare that growth curve to Jacksonville’s. This team went from boom to bust largely because of injuries on both lines, making the Jags a fader’s delight in 2008. The offensive line is revamped with draft picks and the signing of tackle Tra Thomas from Philadelphia, but Jacksonville is still a mess at wide receiver and even more so with last week’s decision to trade Dennis Northcutt to the Lions for safety Gerald Alexander. Now take oft-injured Fred Taylor out of the Jacksonville backfield and put him in New England. How will the Jags recover?

Jacksonville and Houston are tied at 17-4 to win the AFC South, but the Texans have the higher over/under at 8.5 regular-season victories to eight for the Jaguars. I’m predicting another losing season spent in the basement for Jacksonville. And it’s pretty easy to take Indianapolis as a 10-11 chalk to win the division. Jim Caldwell was a Dungy disciple in Tampa Bay before spending seven years as his assistant in Indianapolis, so the game plan should be the same for nine-time Pro Bowler Peyton Manning (27 TDs, 12 INTs) at quarterback. If anything, the turnover in the staff under Caldwell could require some adjustment from the players.

My question is whether the Texans are going to surpass the Titans for second place in the division. Tennessee watched gigantic DT Albert Haynesworth sign with Washington for $41 million guaranteed, more than double what Tennessee was offering. The Titans were 19-8 ATS over the past two years when Haynesworth played (both Pro Bowl years) and 1-4 ATS when he didn’t. Second-round pick Sen’Derrick Marks from Auburn is his replacement. Tough gig.

Tennessee hasn’t done much else this offseason. The QB situation is anything but enviable with Vince Young wasting away on the sidelines and 37-year-old Kerry Collins (12 TDs, seven INTs) providing relief, however admirably. I don’t like their chances at 9-4 to win the AFC South, and I don’t think they’ll meet their over/under of 9.5 wins. Pencil the Titans and Texans in for nine wins apiece, with Houston sneaking away with second place and neither team getting a Wild Card. That’s life in the AFC.

With relatively manageable matches ahead of them, both Roger Federer and Venus Williams are in search of another Wimbledon Championship.

If American sports history has proven anything, it is that the masses love to root for the little guy, the choo-choo train with the engine that never could, the underdog with odds stacked against them, the one person nobody expects to succeed.

It is their determination not to fail, not to falter in the face of adversity, the will to prevail when faced with a man or woman much greater in talent than themselves that shapes the entire backbone of American sports.

As we are more than halfway through the Super Bowl of tennis, the Wimbledon Championship, betting boards in Las Vegas are illuminated by quarter-finals odds from both the ATP and WTA tennis draw. Sorry America, the dogs aren’t barking.

WTA
Venus Williams vs. Agnieszka Radwanska
Venus leads the series 3-1 having won the last 3 encounters, with Radwanska’s lone victory against the American occurring back in 2006 at the Luxembourg tournament when Venus was battling injury. About the only positive Radwanska could draw from is the fact that in March of 2009 she snatched a set against Venus on hard court at the Miami Premier event, that is the only set she has taken from Venus in the last 3 matches.

I absolutely love Agnieszka Radwanskas game, she plays a different style of tennis than most ladies on tour, she has very little power with which to work with and makes up for it with her excellent court coverage, defense, and tennis IQ. She is a player that doesn’t seem to suffer from the same chemical imbalance most ladies on tour do, she isn’t going to gift matches away with unforced errors, isn’t going to hit the panic button should she drop serve. However, her one weak point is the fact that she has no answer for a player with Venus’ skill. I was tempted to say the word ‘power’, but the fact is Radwanska is more than capable of holding her own against heavy hitters, but she has historically done better against the likes of the Petrovas and Wozniackis. The reason for this is these players, while having dominating powerful groundstrokes, often times are deficient in the intangibles department, frequently not making key adjustments to utilize their power.

Venus Williams doesn’t have that problem. She is a master at harnessing her power on grass, and is capable of blowing out the best in the world from wire to wire , as evidenced today in her 6-1 0-1 rout over Ana Ivanovic, dominating her so much that the Serb retired in defeat.

The tennis enthusiast in me wants to say Radwanska is worth a shot at these incredible odds, but the tennis handicapper knows better.

The pick: Venus Williams -655

Other WTA picks include: Dinara Safina -202, Francesca Schiavone +271, Serena Williams -286.

ATP
Roger Federer vs. Ivo Karlovic
Federer leads the series 8-1, but it should be stated that out of those 9 matches there were 12 tiebreaks, the only time the two met on the Grand Slam level was back Wimbledon 2004 where Roger won in straight sets which included two tiebreakers.

The only time Karlovic defeated Federer was back in July of 2008, a month after Rafael Nadal had shocked the world and surpassed Federer by defeating him in the five-set thriller at Wimbledon and snatching the #1 ranking away from the Swiss in the process. It should be stated that Federer was not playing anywhere close to his best at that time, the match included two tiebreakers and the final score-line read Ivo Karlovic 76 46 76.

Federer is nonetheless -775 in a match which again figures to be decided largely by who outplays the other in the tiebreakers. Karlovic rifled down 35 aces in his 4 set win over Fernando Verdasco, won 73% behind his first ball and committed 33 unforced errors. He also was no slouch on the return having had 6 break point opportunities, although he had capitalized off only one. Karlovic in years past has had a reputation of a one-trick pony,  a 6ft 10 Croatian that has the best serve on tour, but is often not prudent on the return with his big clumsy stature and lack of touch. Karlovic has obviously spent an immense amount of time working on his game, as he loves rushing into the net and trying to end each rally with one huge approach. He has incredible wingspan and has also improved his match fitness, having developed a reputation of an early exit on the Grand Slam level as he had up to this point never advanced past the 3rd round. It was believed that his lack of endurance hampered his ability to win best of 5 matches, as opposed to the non Grand Slam tournaments where each match is best of 3.

I can tell you right now, the value is NOT on Roger Federer in this match, even though I like his chances to get it done in 4 or 5 sets. He is my pick to win the championship, but I simply can’t justify laying $775 to win $100 in a match where it is reasonable to believe going in there will be two if not more tiebreakers involved.

Federer was impressive in his straight sets dismissal of Robin Soderling, hammering 23 aces and winning 67% behind his first ball. He had only 8 unforced errors the entire match which is quite impressive, he gave Robin only 2 break point opportunities but neither were taken advantage of by the Swede. Federer got in some much needed tiebreaker practice as he defeated Soderling 64 76 76.

Just to put into perspective how good Roger Federer is, even if Karlovic has his best serving game of the tournament, rifles down 50 aces, gives away only one break point opportunity to Federer, I still have to favor the superior skill, decision making, and big game experience of Roger Federer and do like him to break Karlovic whenever possible. Alternatively, I also like Roger to win this match even if we see only tiebreakers. Whereas if you place the shoe on the other foot, I do not think Karlovic has two ways of winning this match. He will either serve his way into the Semi Finals or he will go home, either way it is off his racket and he has no exit strategy if his serve is not clicking. He likely will not break Federer in this match and most certainly is not skilled enough of a returner to hang in there for the real pressure building points.

The pick: No value, but if I had to, I’d take Federer to win 3-1 and 3-2 at the best sportsbook odds possible.

Other ATP picks include: Andy Roddick -242, Tommy Haas +210, and a lean on Andy Murray depending what the odds come out as against JC Ferrero.

Stop on by the tennis betting subforum to chat with fellow handicappers!

Just 3-3 on the current homestand, the Blue Jays need to keep pace in the tough AL East when their three-game set vs. the Rays begins Monday.  Aaron Hill leads Toronto on offense, already setting a franchise HR mark for second basemen less than halfway through the season.  The Jays will get their ace Roy Halladay back from the DL as well, and they will need all of the hitting and pitching they can muster against Tampa Bay.

Bettors anticipated the American League East was going to be baseball’s most competitive division back in spring training, but no one was prepared for this:

• Boston Red Sox  46-29, .613 (+70 run differential)
• New York Yankees 42-32, .568 (+53)
• Tampa Bay Rays  42-35, .545 (+87)
• Toronto Blue Jays 41-36, .532 (+41)

You can make a strong argument these four clubs are the best overall in the AL. The Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers currently have better records than Tampa Bay and Toronto, but the latter pair is first and fourth, respectively, in run differential. With Boston and New York holding on to the two top spots in the division, bettors get a chance to handicap the other powerhouses in the AL East when the Blue Jays (41-36, +2.72 units) host the Rays (42-35, +1.98 units) for a three-game series beginning on Monday night.

Toronto ace Roy Halladay (10-1, 2.53 ERA) comes off the 15-day disabled list after missing just over two weeks with a strained groin to make his return on Monday night. Halladay suffered the injury in the Jays’ 7-3 loss as -210 home chalk to the Florida Marlins back on June 12, going three innings before leaving the game.

Prior to hitting the DL, Halladay was on fire for backers, with only one start where he allowed more than three runs over his last nine outings. Not that the bump in the road was hurtful for Jays’ bettors’ bankrolls: The Doctor gave up four runs in a complete-game win over the Angels on June 2, striking out a career-high 14 batters as Toronto cashed as -170 favorites on the betting odds board.

Bettors should think twice about taking Halladay and the Jays as -185 moneyline faves for Game 1 (7:07 PM ET), and not just because of the hefty price on Toronto. Rays starter Jeff Niemann (6-4, 4.23 ERA) is up +6.60 units this season, good for fourth for major league starters this year. Tampa Bay is 10-4 against the moneyline in Niemann’s 14 outings this season, including 3-0 in his last three trips to the hill. Oddsmakers have the Rays as +170 underdogs for the opener, with the total set at 8.5.

The Rays are among the hottest wagers in the game right now, with seven ML victories over their last eight matchups. Tampa Bay is coming off a three-game sweep of the Florida Marlins at Tropicana Field, with David Price getting the win in Sunday’s 5-2 victory as -166 faves. B.J Upton was 2-for-4 with a homer for Tampa Bay, which hasn’t had as much success cashing away from home lately. The Rays are only 4-10 in their last 14 contests on the road.

The Jays are one of the most profitable home bets in baseball at +4.99 units (24-16 ML), although they didn’t take too much coin over the weekend. Toronto dropped two of three to the visiting Philadelphia Phillies, blowing a four-run lead to lose Sunday’s series finale 5-4 as -143 chalk. Brian Tallet allowed four earned runs over six innings to take the loss for Toronto, which has played over the listed total in 10 of Halladay’s last 12 starts north of the border.

Tuesday night’s Game 2 (7:07 PM ET) is a battle between the Rays’ Matt Garza (5-5, 3.61 ERA) and the Jays’ Scott Richmond (6-4, 3.68 ERA). Tampa Bay has struggled at the window when Garza takes the ball on the road this season, with only one payday in the righthander’s seven starts away from Tropicana Field. Richmond comes into the game 19th on the starters’ moneylist (+4.48 units), as Toronto is 8-4 ML in his 12 starts this season.

Wednesday’s getaway game (1:07 PM ET) sees James Shields (6-5, 3.41 ERA) toe the rubber for the Rays against surprising Jays lefthander Ricky Romero (5-3, 3.20 ERA). Toronto is 3-0 in Romero’s last three outings, during which he’s put up a 2.14 ERA. Tampa Bay is also a perfect 3-0 against the moneyline in Shields’ last three starts, as the Rays have gone 5-10 O/U in his last 15 trips to the bump.

The series is the first meeting this season between the division rivals. Tampa Bay took last year’s season series 11-7, with Toronto cashing in five of the eight games played at Rogers Centre.

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Misery may love company, but Cubs and White Sox fans will never mix. The Windy City braces itself for a good old-fashioned civil war this weekend as the two Chicago crews meet on the city's South Side. With each team owning anemic offenses and solid pitching, plate crossings could be few and far between for this three-game set. The White Sox are -110 in the series finale after the clubs split a couple of one run decisions over the first two games.

The Cubs and White Sox are bringing their familiar brand of misery to the good people of Chicago. These two long-standing MLB institutions are a combined 11 units in the hole this year; the Cubs (34-35, minus-9.01 units) are treading water in the National League Central, and the White Sox (35-37, minus-1.99 units) are doing the same in the American League Central. Only one of them will leave U.S. Cellular Field this weekend with its pride intact.

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Scoring runs has been a problem for both teams this season. The White Sox are ranked No. 20 in the majors with a .727 OPS, dropping all the way to .672 OPS at their pitcher-friendly park. The Cubs have a comparable .723 team OPS (No. 23 in the bigs) that should rise after playing three games with the designated hitter. But away from Wrigley Field, their bats go limp with a .696 OPS. The under is 19-13 this year when the Cubs take the road and an impressive 26-10 when the Sox are home.

The betting odds for Friday’s series opener have a total of nine runs up on the board, with both teams priced evenly at -110. Here’s a look at the pitching matchups for all three games.

Game 1, Friday (4:05 p.m., CSN)
Randy Wells vs. Jose Contreras
Wells (2.57 ERA, 4.07 xFIP) has been absolute found treasure for the Cubs, landing back in their laps after the Blue Jays originally took him away in the Rule 5 Draft. He came up from the minors this year to replace Carlos Zambrano during one of his injury layoffs, and Wells has stuck with the big team by serving up six quality starts in eight appearances. The Cubs are 3-5 in those games (minus-3.10 units) with the under checking in at 5-3.

Contreras (5.23 ERA, 4.88 xFIP) is having a rougher time for the Pale Hose, who are 2-7 in his nine starts (the under was 6-3) for a deficit of 5.48 units. But his last three starts have all been quality, with Chicago winning twice, and the veteran northpaw was moved up in the rotation from Thursday specifically to face the Cubs. One problem with that theory: Those Cubs who have faced Contreras before have a combined .990 OPS against him.

Game 2, Saturday (4:05 p.m., FOX)
Ryan Dempster vs. Mark Buehrle
If it wasn’t for bad luck, Dempster (3.83 ERA, 4.22 xFIP) wouldn’t have any luck at all. The Cubs are 5-10 in his 15 starts and 6.89 units in the hole. Run support is quite poor for Dempster at 4.13 per game, once again making the under a strong bet at 9-6. That trend has solidified over the past five games, all quality starts for Dempster and all going under on a combined score of 12-12.

Buehrle (3.17 ERA, 4.23 xFIP) must be stealing all of Dempster’s lucky charms. He’s been showered with 4.79 runs per game in support, not to mention 4.60 units in profit on a team record of 10-4. If you’re not familiar with xFIP, that’s adjusted Fielding Independent Percentage, and these two pitchers are virtually equal in effectiveness according to this fancy metric. Buehrle is stranding a ridiculous 81.3 percent of batters (to 73.5 percent for Dempster) and the under is naturally running to the bank at 10-4.
 
Game 3, Sunday (2:05 p.m., WGN)
Carlos Zambrano vs. John Danks
Zambrano (3.48 ERA, 4.42 xFIP) is on a roll with five straight quality starts, and when this massive Venezuelan gets going, he’s tough to stop. The Cubs were 3-2 in those starts to improve to 8-4 on the season and 3.29 units in the black. The over/under is split down the middle at six apiece. Zambrano has a .660 OPS this year with a pair of home runs; Micah Hoffpauir (.793 OPS) served as his DH and went deep Thursday night against the Tigers. But Kevin Gregg blew the save in the ninth as Detroit (-120) prevailed 6-5.

White Sox fans are anxious about Danks (4.43 ERA, 4.01 xFIP) and whether last year’s breakthrough campaign was just a flash in the pan. Again, according to the magic xFIP, he’s almost exactly the same pitcher in 2009 as 2008 (3.98 xFIP). The Sox are 7-7 in his 14 starts for 0.08 units in earnings; the under is 8-6, including his last four games in a row.

Nothing like a circus to bring out the little kid in all of us.  This past week the circus came to Forumville, replete with drama and clowns and acts of daring-do.  Step right up and see the breaded lady, folks.

What better way to take your mind off your losing streak than to visit the circus?  I’m pretty sure there are no spirit-crushing, five-run ninth innings there, and that’s just fine by me.

The only circus for me

This isn’t the traditional circus though.  I’ve never really gotten into those.  If I want to partake in the torture of animals I’ll slap my little brother around.  This is the Cirque du Soleil that is in town.  Between the shows in Vegas, Orlando and the traveling ones that hit town, this will be my eighth Cirque attendance.

Tickets are not cheap, but worth every single penny if you get the opportunity to ever go.  The stunning acrobatics, outlandish costumes and mesmerizing music all come together to offer you a one of a kind entertainment experience.  You’ll never even miss the mistreated elephants and tigers.  Trust me.

There was another circus in town this week in case you missed it.  It came equipped with plenty of clowns, but it wasn’t Barnum & Bailey.  No, this sideshow took place on gambling forums all across Forumville.  This definitely was not a show for your kids, as many men who hide behind painted faces tried to conduct business as usual.  But just this one time, the audience was wise to their tricks, and ran them off stage in their little clown car until they were able to come correct.  And come correct they eventually did, but there was a valuable lesson to be learned.

The number one rule of sports gambling is to make sure that you trust your money to someone that will pay.  I don’t care if this is Rocco across town or an offshore book.  Most of us are giving our money away anyway, but there is no worse feeling than when you do go on that insane run, and the excuses start to pour in as to why you’re not getting paid.  The first rule of sports gambling has nothing to do with recognizing an edge, or money management, or incorporating some nerdy math formula.  The first rule is to be sure that you play with a house that will pay.

There is a term that many use that some might misinterpret to describe literature about defecation.  But no, the term “s*#t books” actually refers to sportsbooks that have earned themselves a terrible reputation by ripping off players on too many occasions.  This past week’s circus involved such a player who built up a handsome balance at one of these books.  The representatives of this book were not happy about this, and invented some magical excuses not to pay.  Of course they did.  They are a s*#t book.

I realize that Ringling Bros. tickets can leave you a little light in the wallet, but no circus should cost you $8,400.  That’s just not right.  The player ended up getting paid in full, but it was only because of the outrage voiced by fellow posters on multiple forums that he did.  He was one of the lucky ones.  Given the reputation of the book in question, I’d say he was very fortunate.

Most clowns are funny, but some just scare the hell outta' you.

So how do you know who you can trust out there?  The SBR Rating Guide is a good start.  If you see a book rated as a D- there, it’s probably a good idea to steer clear of them.  But don’t just take their word for it.  Do some searches yourself to see what you can find.  If you do a Google search for “Oddsmaker scam” and your computer crashes from all the hits it finds, you should avoid them like Ed McMahon’s accountant.  This is your money we are talking about here.

Another thing to keep in mind is just because you see a banner at the top of a gambling forum page, does not mean that they are trustworthy.  The banners atop SBR have proven track records, but at some other places, not so much.  The clowns at this circus may have ulterior motives, and back sponsors no matter how devious they may be.  It’s a sad reality of the business.  And you could find supposed industry watch dogs dragging your name through the mud to save face in front of their crooked sponsor.  In your hour of need, you will be left with Hofomey the Clown belting you over the head with a tennis ball-filled sock.  “Hofomey don’t play dat!”  Indeed.

It’s also wise to not become enamored by slick brochures that arrive in your mailbox.  Just because there is a picture of some guy on the brochure telling you that you can put your feet up and relax because he personally guarantees that you will not be disappointed in his book, does not make it true.  Keep the hot chick calendar if you must, and then do some research on this book.  A few minutes of studying can save you a whole lot of heartbreak in the future.

Once you become established with books that you can trust, you have completed the first step of successful sports wagering.  Not that I am often in a position to withdraw, but I’m still working on step two.

No games for me on this fine Saturday.  But then again, the only clown that will be robbing me will be the guy charging me $10 for a popcorn.  Freakin crooks.

Read more Bread HERE; Keep your eyes peeled for SBR Contests HERE

The 2009 NBA Draft has come and gone, but it wasn't the young college stars who became instant millionaires on Thursday night making the biggest news.  Trades leading up to the draft, like Shaquille O'Neal going to the Cavaliers and Vince Carter heading to the Magic, stole the spotlight and will ultimately have a larger impact on futures betting.  The Spurs pulled off the double-whammy (big trade, strong draft) to improve their odds.

The NBA will never be the same again.

Thursday was the eagerly anticipated 2009 NBA Draft in New York City, but it was a series of trades that stole the spotlight from the youngsters – and assured instant obsolescence for the betting odds on the 2010 championship. In short, the rich are getting richer and the poor have a lot of cap space to work with next year.

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- Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1 to win the title at press time) acquire Shaquille O’Neal from Phoenix Suns (30-1) for Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic, a second-round pick in the 2010 draft, and cash.

- Orlando Magic (5-1) acquire Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson from New Jersey Nets (50-1) for Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee, and Tony Battie.

- San Antonio Spurs (7-1) acquire Richard Jefferson from Milwaukee Bucks (125-1) for Kurt Thomas, Amir Johnson (received earlier from Detroit for Fabricio Oberto), and Bruce Bowen.

These are three of the top five favorites in the NBA getting that much better; the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers (3-1) and 2008 champion Boston Celtics (6-1) have some work to do if they’re going to keep up. But are you really going to bet on one of these five teams to win the title? At this time of year? The further we are from the 2010 playoffs, the bigger potential return you want for your investment. That means risk.

The teams at the top of the draft list this year were all “have-not” teams with little or no hope of winning the championship next year. The Los Angeles Clippers (200-1) should be significantly better with No. 1 overall pick Blake Griffin at power forward, but getting from 19 wins to above .500 would have to be considered a successful year for L.A.’s second team. And the Memphis Grizzlies (also 200-1) are in no position to contend this season despite the addition of Hasheem Thabeet, the 7-foot-3 center from UConn who cannot help but draw comparisons to Dikembe Mutombo.

If you go down the draft list to No. 7, you have the interesting case of the Golden State Warriors (100-1). This is a team that made the second round of the playoffs two years ago. It’s been turmoil since then – injuries, trades, the GM switch from Chris Mullin to Larry Riley – but Golden State will have an intriguing collection of players in 2009-10. The Warriors drafted guard Stephen Curry with the seventh pick; he could join Monta Ellis in the backcourt, or he could be part of a package that brings Amare Stoudemire from the Suns. Golden State is closer to a championship at this point than Phoenix.

The Washington Wizards (35-1) were supposed to draft at No. 5, but they engineered a deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves (250-1) that could put the Wiz right back into the thick of the Eastern playoffs – provided Gilbert Arenas can stay healthy. Washington received Randy Foye and Mike Miller in exchange for the No. 5 pick and spare parts Oleksiy Pecherov, Etan Thomas, and Darius Songaila. The Wiz finally have some quality support players in Foye and Miller as well as a proven coach in Flip Saunders.

Of the elite teams picking at the bottom of the draft, the Spurs made out like bandits as they often do. They didn’t even get to pick until the second round, and yet they got a player at No. 37 overall who could help them right away: former Pittsburgh PF DeJuan Blair. Concerns about his knee caused Blair to slip from a possible late lottery pick all the way out of the first round, but this is a premium offensive rebounder who fits the San Antonio work ethic.

The Spurs even managed to grab ex-Miami SG Jack McClinton with the No. 51 overall pick. McClinton shot 45.3 percent from behind the arc for the Hurricanes last year. Depth is not going to be a concern for the Spurs even after unloading three players to get Jefferson. If they stay at 7-1 in the wake of the draft, that’s a compelling value coming out of the West at more than twice the payout you’d get with the Lakers.

Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals are drawing the chalk in this afternoon's matchup against Johan Santana and the Mets at Citi Field.  Will the battle of top hurlers live up to its expectations?

This is not just any baseball game.

Two of the best pitchers in the majors are going to be on display in a special Thursday matinee at Citi Field between the St. Louis Cardinals (40-33, plus-1.87 units) and the New York Mets (36-34, minus-1.08 units). Taking the hill for the home side is Johan Santana (3.22 ERA, 3.82 xFIP), the two-time American League Cy Young winner for Minnesota. Replying for St. Louis is Chris Carpenter (1.53 ERA, 3.31 xFIP), who has pitched sparingly since taking the NL Cy Young in 2005. Our readers in the Big Apple will definitely want to catch this one on SportsNet New York at 1:10 p.m. Eastern.

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Early betting odds had Carpenter and the visitors as -120 favorites with a total of seven runs. The under is 6-2-1 for Carpenter as he continues his assault on enemy bats, allowing 10 earned runs in his nine starts with a miniscule 0.72 WHIP. However, St. Louis hasn’t always managed to capitalize on this pitching goodness. The Cards are 5-4 in Carpenter’s starts for a profit of only 0.63 units.

Santana is in the same pickle. He’s throwing brilliantly as usual, posting a 1.19 WHIP on the season and holding the Rays to two runs on three hits last Saturday. Not good enough. The Mets lost 3-1 as –115 home faves to fall to 8-6 in Santana’s 14 starts, 0.34 units in the red. The under is 9-5 for the Mets in those games.

As you may have figured by now, run support has been an issue for both pitchers. The Cardinals are supplying Carpenter with 3.2 runs per game, while the Mets have been even stingier for Santana at 3.1 runs per game. There are some flaws in the offense for both teams, even with big hitters like Albert Pujols (1.154 OPS) and David Wright (.954 OPS) turning baseballs into mush. But this lack of run support is also the product of the two No. 1 pitchers having to face the opposing team’s ace so often – as they will in this matchup.

Ah yes, those flaws. New York was No. 12 in the majors at press time with a .765 OPS, but second from the bottom in home runs with 45. St. Louis is No. 12 in the majors with 78 home runs, but a mediocre No. 19 overall with a .327 OBP. The Cards have been leaning on Pujols (26 homers in 72 games) this year; they’ve been without 3B Troy Glaus (.856 OPS in 2008) all season and have watched transplanted SS Khalil Greene (.665 OPS) struggle at the hot corner. But it’s the Mets who are really suffering medically right now. Here’s the list:

• Carlos Beltran (knee, flu) .952 OPS, 11 SB
• Carlos Delgado (hip) .914 OPS
• Jose Reyes (hamstring) .750 OPS, 11 SB
• Gary Sheffield (knee) .876 OPS

And those are just the hitters. New York is also down a few good men in the bullpen, including would-be top closers J.J. Putz and Billy Wagner, with neither man expected back until August thanks to elbow injuries. Putz (5.22 ERA, 4.92 xFIP) has been a disappointment since coming East in a trade with Seattle, but the Mets bullpen is still ranked No. 5 in the majors with a combined 3.47 ERA. St. Louis firemen are No. 20 with a 4.20 ERA, although closer Ryan Franklin (another ex-Mariner) is amazingly effective this year with three earned runs in 27 innings of work.

Citi Field is doing its part to keep scores low with a park factor of 0.873 for runs. And the two managers in this matchup – Tony La Russa for the Cardinals and Jerry Manuel for the Mets – are both noted exponents of smallball, giving up outs in order to manufacture runs. That approach generally leads to fewer runs, although it does have its strategic uses. It might take a sac bunt or two for either team to score in this matchup.

Is a Pittsburgh, Arizona rematch in the Cards for the next NFL Championship?  The road to Super Bowl XLIV in Miami is closer than you think, and futures couldn't be softer.

NFL Europe is gone. The CFL, such as it is these days, doesn’t start until July. The NFL Combine and the NFL Draft are in the rear-view mirror. This must be the perfect time for handicappers to get their football fix.

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I’ve said it before, it’s like buying winter clothes on sale in the summertime. The Super Bowl futures market is at its softest in the offseason, especially in that pocket of time between the end of the NBA playoffs and the start of NFL training camps in late July. The betting odds will only get tighter after camps open and we gradually get a better idea what these teams are truly made of.

The defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers opened at 7-1 to win Super Bowl XLIV at Dolphin Stadium and have since moved to 15-2, losing steam to the very public New England Patriots at 4-1. The difference between these two teams is fairly small, at least in terms of the over/under for regular season wins, with New England at 11.5 and Pittsburgh at 11. Both teams are expected to earn a first-round bye in the playoffs. The Pats are 1-7 favorites to take the AFC East, while the Steelers are 5-7 faves in the AFC North.

Pittsburgh definitely represents the more stable of the top two Super Bowl picks. The Patriots are bringing Tom Brady back into the fold after missing nearly all of 2008 with a serious knee injury. The Steelers will have pretty much everyone of concern back for another run at the title, although that also means there are still weaknesses to be addressed at tailback and wide receiver. Pittsburgh’s offense was ranked No. 15 in the league in running efficiency last year and No. 20 in passing.

The Steelers defense created the conditions for winning by holding opponents to a league-low 13.9 points and 237.2 yards per game. They scored three touchdowns in the regular season and another at the Super Bowl when LB James Harrison huffed and puffed 100 yards to paydirt. Pittsburgh’s defensive line will be stronger with first-round pick Evander Hood from Missouri, and CB Keiwan Ratliff was signed from the Indianapolis Colts to replace Bryant McFadden.

Given this considerable advantage in field position, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (17 TD passes, 15 interceptions) kept the chains moving and played inspired football when it mattered most, all the way up to his epic title-winning pass to Santonio Holmes with 35 seconds remaining. This is a two-time Super Bowl champion in the prime of his career at age 27. Can Brady compete with this in his age 32 season after a serious injury?

Better yet, compare the Steelers’ quiet offseason to that of their Super Bowl adversaries, the Arizona Cardinals. They’re not getting a lot of support on the market, falling from 15-1 at the open to 20-1 as contract talks with WR Anquan Boldin bog down. They’re even money to win the NFC West, which could yet again be the difference between making and missing the postseason. The good news for supporters is their total of 9.5 victories, suitably higher than the 7.0 posted for the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers.

The Cardinals might not look like a beacon of consistency, not with QB Kurt Warner at the controls while Matt Leinart holds a clipboard for another year – or at least until Warner gets injured, which was thankfully not an issue in an MVP-quality campaign at the tender age of 37. Arizona protected Warner in 2008 with major improvements on the offensive line under the watchful eye of assistant Russ Grimm. The Cards allowed 28 sacks last year; Pittsburgh coughed up 50. An upright quarterback is a consistent quarterback.

The Cardinals have a solid core of talent led by a top young coach in Ken Whisenhunt who cut his teeth alongside Grimm in the Steelers organization. They filled their needs at the draft, starting with former Ohio State tailback Chris “Beanie” Wells in the first round. And unlike the Steelers, they have the weaker NFC to navigate on the way back to the Super Bowl. True, history hasn’t been kind to Super Bowl losers – last year’s Patriots being the most recent hard-luck example. But value bettors might be more inclined to take their title chances with Arizona at nearly three times the payout.

It's the strongest division in the NFL the past 40+ seasons, and Donovan McNabb is out to lead the Eagles to the top of the NFC East in the upcoming 2009 season.  With the Cowboys and Giants the darlings of the media and the public, Philadelphia is slowly moving up the betting odds chart with training camps set to open in about five weeks. The Eagles open their preseason slate Aug 13 at home against the Patriots.

Welcome to the best division in the NFL.

The NFC East has been the center of the football universe since 1967, when the NFL first breathed life into what was then known as the Capitol Division. They’ve been represented at 19 of the 43 Super Bowls and hoisted the Vince Lombardi Trophy 11 times – five for the Dallas Cowboys, three each for the New York Giants and Washington Redskins, and none yet for the Philadelphia Eagles. Is this their year?

The betting odds suggest the marketplace is warming up to the idea. Here’s what the Super Bowl futures had in store for all four teams at the open and at press time:

TEAM	OPEN	CURRENT
Giants	8/1	9/1
Eagles	12/1	11/1
Cowboys	9/1	11/1
Redskins	25/1	25/1

Only the Redskins appear to be out of the championship picture at this point. The other three teams are also the top three favorites to win the NFC, where once again the lines have been moving in Philly’s