The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies combined for 18 runs and 24 hits on Saturday, as the D-Backs won 11-7.

Don't expect those July 4 type of fireworks today in Coors Field. Dan Haren goes for the Diamondbacks and while he's only 7-5 on the season in 16 starts (team is 8-8), that hardly tells the whole story. Haren owns a 2.19 ERA, having allowed just 78 hits over 115 innings, striking out 113 batters while walking only 15.

He's lasted at least seven innings and allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last seven starts, going 4-0 with a 1.73 ERA (striking out 50 batters while walking just six). He’ll face Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez, who is 5-3 with a 2.79 ERA in his last 11 starts, allowing two earned runs or less allowed in seven of those 11 outings.

Take the Under.

Free Pick: Diamondbacks, Rockies Under 8½ (-115)

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies take the field at Coors on Sunday afternoon for the final game in their three-game weekend set.

Arizona will send Dan Haren to the bump with his 7-5 record and ERA of 2.19 on the season. Haren has been solid on the road as well, posting a record of 3-1 with an ERA of 2.45. The problem for Haren and his teammates is the Rockies are playing well and have won 20 of their last 27 when facing right-handed starters. Not only that, they are 22-5 their last 27 overall which includes 6-0 at home and 5-0 when installed as a home favorite.

Colorado will send Ubaldo Jimenez to the hill with his 6-7 record and ERA of 3.74 overall this season including 4-2 when he takes the bump at home with an ERA of 3.79. Jimenez is only 1-1 over his last three starts but in the last two he has pitched well enough to win just didn’t get the run support he needed.

On June 23 he gave up four earned runs on the road at the Angels and lost 4-3, then on June 29 he gave up two earned runs at the Dodgers and lost 4-2. We expect that to change here today as the Rockies are averaging 5.8 runs per game at home this season with a batting average of .278 and an OBP of .358 while the Diamondbacks are averaging only 4.0 runs per game on the road with a batting average of .222 and an OBP of .294.

Arizona has struggled in the role of underdog going 24-53 their last 77 games and 18-40 when installed as a road underdog. Combine these factors and angles with the fact the Diamondbacks are only 17-42 their last 59 road games when facing a team with a winning record and we have a super situation with the Rockies at home over the Diamondbacks.

So lay the short price with the host as they cash the winning ticket at Coors Field on Sunday afternoon. 

Graded Selection:  Colorado Rockies 7 Arizona Diamondbacks 3

Free Pick: Rockies -120

The Mew York Mets had won two straight games prior to the first two games in this series vs. the Philadelphia Phillies, but those setbacks should not set them back too much.

They have an edge with the pitching matchup tonight and they catch a very good number against a Philadelphia team that has been having trouble winning at home. The Phillies are 15-22 at home, which is the second worst home record in baseball.

Johan Santana has not been in his best form recently but that could very well change this afternoon. Looking at his road numbers and you see a disappointing 5.18 ERA but a lot of that damage was done in just one outing against the Yankees. Take out that performance and his ERA drops from 5.18 to 3.49 which is a significant difference.

He faces a Phillies team that he has dominated for the most part. In his seven starts against Philadelphia since joining the Mets, Santana has a 3.04 ERA with six of those seven starts being quality outings.

He squares off against Joe Blanton, who has definitely turned things around but that has not resulted in victories. He has allowed three runs or less in six of his last seven starts but the Phillies have lost his last five outings. Pitching at home has been a chore as Blanton is 1-2 with a 6.05 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in seven starts.

He allowed five runs in six innings in his only career start against New York while in a Phillies uniform, so he could be just what the lackluster Mets offense needs right now.

The Mets are 9-3 in Santana’ last 12 starts following a team loss in their previous game while the Phillies are 1-6 in their last seven games against a team with a losing record.

Free Pick: Mets +100

The Fourth of July weekend is all about fireworks.  I’m not talking about the kind that your mullet-wearing neighbor sets off in the middle of the street every year.  I’m talking about explosives in the ballpark.

On this weekend in particular, why would I risk boring myself to tears by watching the Astros-Giants series?  I’m in no mood for 1-0 finals, with the sole run being scored on a passed ball.  There is a time and place for those games, and this is not it.

I’m looking for explosive outbursts in my account balances, and that’s why I’m eyeing the Blue Jays-Yankees series.  Why battle the crowds for parking and the best spot with a view and subject yourself to deafening decibels of Lee Greenwood songs?  I suggest that you sit at home with me, avoid all police check points, and enjoy the fireworks at Yankee Stadium.

When these two met in May, the Under hit in two of the three games.  And then on Friday afternoon in the Bronx, New York took a 4-2 final.  With what these teams are capable of, one has to believe that at least two of their remaining games will be slugfests.  The matchups are as follows:

Roy Halladay (10-2, 2.56) vs. Chien-Ming Wang (1-6, 10.06)
Saturday, Jul 4, 1:05 p.m. (ET)

Scott Richmond (6-5, 3.69) vs. Chamberlain (4-2, 3.89)
Sunday, Jul 5, 1:05 p.m.

Ricky Romero (6-3, 2.85) vs. Andy Pettitte (8-3, 4.25)
Monday, Jul 6, 1:05 p.m.

Between both teams you’re getting about 10½ runs a game.  New York is behind only Tampa Bay, crossing the plate 435 times while Toronto is sixth scoring 398 times.  Marco Scutaro and Johnny Damon set the pace as they are tied for second in runs scored.  I have no idea how Damon is still putting together respectable seasons.  Just a couple of years ago he looked like someone reattached Ted Williams’ head and put him in pinstripes.  But I’ll give credit where it’s due.

The Jays lead the league with 175 doubles. Adam Lind (25), Scutaro (24) and Scott Rolen (23) are all among the league leaders.  Nothing starts or continues a rally like a two-bagger.  Nothing ends a rally like a tea bagger.  That’s why I never pass out at parties anymore.

Enough of the small talk already. When it comes to fireworks, the bigger the better.  And both of these teams can smack the long ball. New York leads the majors with 119 HR on the year. Toronto is eighth with 93. Throw in the fact that they will be playing at the new Yankee Stadium, which is comparable to trying to hit the ball out of a kiddie pool at times, and there should be more than a few outfield souvenirs offered up this weekend.  Rangers Ballpark in Arlington has seen 109 balls reach the bleachers, compared to Yankee Stadium’s league high 120.

Toronto has a few players who are right in the middle of career-type years.  Lind has cranked eight homers over the past month.  Rolen’s .332 BA is sixth best in baseball.  Second baseman Aaron Hill leads the team with 19 HR and 56 RBI.

For New York, Derek Jeter is putting together yet another fine season, and after a slow start, super free agent signing Mark Teixeira has been fulfilling his promise.  His 20 HR and 61 RBI give the Yankees that offensive firepower that they were hoping for when they bought…er…signed him in the offseason.

I realize that it is always dangerous to play Overs in any game that Roy Halladay is involved in.  But when the opposing pitcher is Chien-Ming Wang, one of the worst starting pitchers of 2009, it becomes much more acceptable.  Wang has looked more like Artie Lange for most of the season.  If Artie were from Taiwan, of course.

Besides Wang, all of the starting pitchers have enjoyed varying success this season.  But before you sweat Ricky Romero’s 2.85 ERA, or Andy Pettitte’s eight wins, keep in mind that most of the fun may not begin until it’s time for the bullpens to do their thing.

Both bullpens rank in league’s bottom half.  Toronto’s 4.05 ERA ranks 17th, and New York’s 4.19 sits at 21st.  But if you enjoy late game fireworks, check out the 44 homers given up by the Yankees’ relief pitchers.  Cleveland has the next worst mark, and at only 37, that’s still seven less than what N.Y. has yielded.  No low scores will be safe with these arms to call upon in clutch situations.  Oh goodie goodie!

Don't expect to see much action in the White Sox and Royals meeting today. Gavin Floyd has been stellar for the Pale Hose with eight quality starts in a row. Despite a high 5.80 road ERA this season, he has allowed just four earned runs in his last three starts on the highway.

In the past two series between the two teams at Kansas City; the Royals have scored just 10 earned runs in five games. They have scored just one run the past two games. That's a good sign for Floyd to continue his success of late of the road. The Royals haven't scored over four runs in a game since June 21 against St. Louis.

Luke Hochevar has been really good at home for the Royals. He owns a 3.47 ERA in KC, giving up just nine earned runs in 23.1 innings of work. He is coming off his best start of the season against the Twins when he pitched seven shutout innings and gave up only two hits. In his last start against the White Sox, Hochevar allowed just three earned runs in seven innings last August.

The Under has cashed a ticket in nine of the last 12 meetings between the two. This should be a low scoring affair in Kauffman Stadium today and we'll play the Under.

Free Pick: White Sox-Royals Under 8½ (-105)

July 4 is always one of the biggest racing days of the year and truly the “starting gate” of some great racing action for the summer.  If you have been getting barbequed on baseball bets while you wait for football to start, be sure to leave some of that bankroll aside for some horse racing wagers during the next couple of months.

Saturday’s action for July 4 is headlined by the United Nations Handicap at Monmouth Park.  I have thoughts on that race, as well as Belmont Park’s Suburban Handicap and the Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs.  Plenty of good undercard races on these cards as well, but I will stick to thoughts on the big money today with my top three choices in each.

Monmouth Park’s United Nation Handicap has a field of 9 going 1-3/8 miles on the turf at the Jersey Shore:
#7 Presious Passion is a solid choice to win this one as he just came off a winner by a nose on the same turf last month at 1-1/8 miles.  No worse than a second place finish all year certainly earns respect of the betting public and Trujillo has been aboard for that entire run.  He will also be carrying a couple of pounds less than those recent races and should be able to pull out another big time speed figure like the 101 in two of his last three races.  Presious Passion could go off at less than the morning line of 9-2 odds, but I feel this is still enough value to take him.

#2 Strike A Deal has tossed in a couple of clunkers lately but at 8-1 odds is worth including among my top three choices here.  This horse finished in second place when running in last year’s United Nations Handicap when the turf was yielding and should be just as competitive in this one.  This will be the third race after a long layoff and as the saying goes – third time could be the charm here.  It is all just a question of regaining form from the past and at 8-1 or higher, I will take the chance that it happens.

#9 Better Talk Now has not had a victory recently but has a lot of experience in this annual race and just hit the board in the Manhattan Handicap at Belmont Park going 1-1/4 miles on the turf. At Belmont, Better Talk Now hit his highest speed figure of 101 since nearly a year ago showing the kind of form that got him in second and third place finishes last summer.  Despite having the worst post in the race, this could be a more favorable spot here and should be able to finish in the money again with a nice closing punch. 

Belmont Park’s Suburban Handicap is 1-1/4 miles on the dirt and a field of 10 hit the track for this one:
#2 Dry Martini has Edgar Prado aboard and comes off a solid effort two months ago winning at 1-1/8 miles here at Belmont.  Although this horse has not hit a 100 or higher for a speed figure as others in the race have, I feel this is a nice choice at 6-1 morning line odds for trainer Barclay Tagg.  A two month layoff might concern some, but having a good trainer makes up for that.  Dry Martini has had a consistent closing kick in lots of recent races and with Prado aboard, he will know when to make his move for the winner’s circle here.

#1 Finallymadeit is my biggest longshot choice of the day at 20-1 morning line odds.  Although fading badly in the Stephen Foster Handicap last month, this horse has won two of his last four races with both being long distances.  Back in May a victory in the Memorial Day Handicap garnered a wire-to-wire 104 speed figure, and 116 pounds will also be the lowest weight that Finallymadeit has had to carry all year.  Although not the most consistent horse of the bunch, at 20-1 odds I certainly feel there is more than enough there to take a chance for the big payday.

#8 Cool Coal Man has a strong trainer-jockey combination here with Nick Zito and John Velazquez making him worth taking a serious look at.  With this horse’s last race being a strong five length win at 1-1/16 miles, the odds will not be the highest here but the morning line of 6-1 is still an overlay in my book.  Prior to that victory, two solid second place finishes occurred for Cool Coal Man – including one with Velazquez aboard.  Speed figures of 103 and 106 led this horse to victory twice this year and the right trip can make it happen again on Saturday.

The Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs is a one mile turf race with a field of 8:
#1 Inca King is my top choice here and some good value at an 8-1 morning line.  A beaten favorite in his last two races, trainer Steven Asmussen is still stepping on the gas pedal here and is hoping for a victory like last year when Inca King stayed in front wire to wire on the Churchill turf at 1-1/16 miles. This horse likes the turf at Churchill as he has the third most starts on the surface and track, including a total of three victories.  Inca King will also be carrying five pounds less than his last two races and eight pounds less than the favorite, Thorn Song.

#5 Mr. Sidney had a horrible race on the dirt at Belmont last month, but is back on the turf in this one looking for a score.  Kent Desormeaux has enjoyed three recent victories aboard Mr. Sidney and could be finding the winner’s circle here again.  Trainer Bill Mott has tried to keep the competition level fairly high for this horse and looks to repeat the one mile turf win he produced at Keeneland in the Maker’s  Mark here on Saturday.  Although the 4-1 odds here are low enough to consider passing, I feel it is a good enough price for me in a smaller 8 horse field like this and to back Mr. Sidney at the betting windows among my top three choices in the Firecracker.

#6 Passager has had three straight speed figures of 100 and is a force to be reckoned with here despite not having won a race yet this year. This horse was a strong contender when running in several races over in France and may finally have the right spot for a victory in the US since changing continents in February. In the Maker’s Mark at Keeneland, only Mr. Sidney was able to beat Passager and this rematch should find both of them hitting the board once again. Passager has also not had great trips in several recent races and has to go somewhat wide on several occasions, but at a morning line of 8-1 odds, I will take the chance a good one comes here.

I hope everyone on SBR has a great July 4 weekend!  Enjoy all of the food, fireworks, and fun at the betting windows!

Our Friday night MLB selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres at Petco Park.

Padres righthander Chad Gaudin is a bit of an enigma.  He goes out and throws arguably his best start of his career in one of the toughest places to pitch in all of baseball (Arlington, Texas) last Sunday night, but only can manage a .500 record (2-2) in his home ballpark which is considered the most pitcher-friendly place to play.

Now granted, the Rangers have been in an awful power slump since losing outfielder Josh Hamilton to injury, so perhaps tonight facing their division rival and the best team in the National League it will be a much truer test for the former Oakland starter.

Other than having to face the team with the best record in the NL, Gaudin will likely have another obstacle to deal with and that is the much-anticipated return of slugger Manny Ramirez to the majors.  And the offensive spark provided by Manny's return could be just the thing that hard-luck L.A. starter Hiroki Kuroda needs.

In limited action (Kuroda missed the beginning of the season due to injury), the Japanese righthander has put up some of the best numbers in the NL in every category except win percentage as, despite a 3.77 ERA and an incredible 35 Ks to just seven walks, Kuroda is only 2-4.  He is working on an amazing streak of four games – 29 consecutive innings – without issuing a base on balls.

Kuroda also happens to be 3-1 in five career starts against the Padres.  Take the Dodgers.

Free Pick: Dodgers -132

Joel Pineiro of the St. Louis Cardinals has been pitching well all season with very little to show for it, but the key to this Under could very well be Homer Bailey of the Cincinnati Reds.

Bailey was a highly regarded prospect in the Cincinnati system, and he showed some flashes of brilliance when he was first called two years ago. However, he regressed badly last season and found himself back in the minors until finally being recalled again to take his first 2009 Major League start on May 23, when he was bombed again.

However, after a brief return to the minors, he looked decent in his second start upon his recall vs. the Cleveland Indians last week, when he got the win while allowing three runs on only three hits in five innings. Now, he has the advantage of facing a struggling St. Louis offense that is averaging just 2.30 runs per game over the last 10 games while batting a horrific .213 as a team during this time.

As for Pineiro, he is probably the most unfortunate 6-9 pitcher in baseball, given his 3.44 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. In fact, Pineiro has now allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts, and yet he has gotten so little support for the quite Cardinal bats that they are only 2-6 as a team in those games. Naturally, that has made him a great Under pitcher, as it is 10-4-1 in all of his starts this year.

Tonight could be more of the same, especially if Bailey builds on his improved start the last time out, making for yet another Under.

Free Pick: Cardinals, Reds Under 9½ (-110)

The first half of the 2009 baseball season is in the books. There were surprising winners, such as the Rangers, Giants and Marlins, a lack of hitting league-wide for the second straight season, and some surprising flops with the Indians, Cubs and Mets underachieving. Here's a look at some teams that might be active at the trading deadline or primed to make a second half surge.

Indians: Since taking the Red Sox to Game 7 of the ALCS in October of 2007, even holding a 3-1 series lead, the Indians have fallen fast and hard. The offense is very good, but the Indians have been outscored 66-32 in the eighth inning and have unreliable starters after ace Cliff Lee. They dealt C.C. Sabathia a year ago and will be sellers this month.

Tigers: The Tigers have been the opposite of what most thought they would be: Good pitching, surprisingly weak offense. Justin Verlander is back as an ace, Edwin Jackson and 20-year old rookie Rick Porcello have been huge additions to the rotation, while Armando Galarraga is beginning to get it together.

The pitching has put them in first place. Now they have to get the offense straightened out, one that was fifth in runs a year ago and fourth in home runs.

"We're going to have to step it up the second half if we're going to stay in contention," said manager Jim Leyland. "I've been disappointed in our offense the whole first half."
 
Phillies:  The defending champs had a big time slump in June, so much so that manager Charlie Manuel called a team meeting in Toronto during their interleague skid. Despite that slide they still remained in first place in the weak NL East. J.A. Happ then went out and beat the Blue Jays 10-0 after that meeting.

Happ has saved the rotation of late, along with the setup/closer combo of Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge, more so than up and down Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton and aging Jamie Moyer. They should be in the market for some pitching help. The offense is not immune, with SS Jimmy Rollins ending a four-game benching last week with an 0-for-5 night that included two strikeouts, two groundouts and a pop-up. Oddly, they have a dominating road record but a weak home mark.

Cubs: With a $135 million payroll, the Cubs should be better. Ted Lilly, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Rich Harden anchor a fine rotation. They are first in quality starts in the majors and fourth in team ERA. The bullpen has been shaky and the offense has been a big disappointment, 27th in runs scored.

They dished out $30-million for three years for Milton Bradley, a .238 hitter. Alfonso Soriano is a nice weapon, but is struggling with a .230 average. 3B Aramis Ramirez has been out, but returns to the Cubs this week. Even he cautioned that he won't be able to turn the season around single-handedly. They should improve, but could it get ugly in Wrigley? A Chicago poll found 57 percent of respondents saying Zambrano should be moved.

"Fine. Trade me to Boston," Zambrano joked.

Angels: No team had more bad luck with injuries (and tragedy) than the Angels in April. From the loss of four projected starters, including the death of promising arm Nick Adenhart, one couldn't blame the Angels if the team collectively said, "We'll sit this year out." Yet, Mike Scioscia's troops have endured with incredible fortitude to come back and take over first place.

John Lackey has put together some solid starts, kids Sean O'Sullivan and Matt Palmer have filled in well, and Ervin Santana rejoined the Angels last week saying he felt no ill effects from a recent rehab start, in which he gave up three hits, struck out seven and walked none in 3.1 innings. All of which is great for the Angels, bad for the rest of the AL West.

Giants: If pitching depth carries a team during the hot summer months, the Giants will be a fascinating club to watch. The emergence of 24-year old Matt Cain to team with 25-year old Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum gives the Giants the best one-two punch in the NL. Throw in veterans Barry Zito and Randy Johnson, and the Giants are loaded with arms for the stretch run. The offense, though, is terrible, 26th in runs scored. They will be looking for bats and have arms to deal, a nice plus.

It goes without saying you should expect fireworks this weekend. Just don’t wait around for them to happen during the three-game series between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Judging by the way the two frontrunners in the National League East are playing right now, you’d be lucky to see a security flare make it out of the infield.

New York Mets (+120 series) at Philadelphia Phillies (-140 series)
The Phillies (39-37, -3.91 units) have one of the best offenses in the league, but not over a recent 10-game stretch during which they’ve dropped eight of 10 games against the moneyline. Philadelphia is fourth in baseball in runs per game (5.23), but is batting only .221 over its last 10 outings, including .199 against righthanded pitching.

That doesn’t bode well for Friday night’s Game 1 (7:05 PM ET) with the Mets (39-39, -1.66 units) sending righty Livan Hernandez (5-3, 4.04 ERA) to the mound. Hernandez has faced some hard luck over his last three starts, as New York has failed to cash despite his 3.00 ERA. If Hernandez continues to pitch well, it’ll be good news for the Mets, who are priced as +125 underdogs for the series opener. The Phils are on the baseball betting odds board as -145 chalk for Game 1, with the total listed at 10.

It’s not as if New York has been lighting it up at the plate, either, although it has been dealing with a bevy of injuries to many of its best players. The Mets are hitting only .230 over their last 10 games, down from their .273 team average (fourth in MLB) on the season. Carlos Beltran (bruised right knee), Jose Reyes (right hamstring tear), and Carlos Delgado (hip surgery) are all on the 15-day disabled list, leaving David Wright to fend for himself in the Big Apple.

Desperate for pitching, Philly hands the ball to Rodrigo Lopez (0-0, 0.00 ERA) on Friday night. Lopez last took the hill on a major league mound back in 2007, when he went 5-4 with a 4.42 ERA for the Colorado Rockies. The righthander can’t be much worse than the arms Charlie Manuel’s been throwing out there this season: Phillies starters have a 5.31 ERA on the season, including a bloated 5.72 ERA at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

Veteran southpaw Jamie Moyer (6-6, 6.05 ERA) has been one of the culprits, with a retire-now 7.15 ERA at home this season. He’ll get the call in the middle game of the series on Saturday afternoon (4:05 PM ET), while New York sends Fernando Nieve (3-1, 2.25 ERA) to the bump for his fifth start of the year.

There’s a potentially profitable betting angle with Moyer going for Philadelphia on Saturday. Moyer is a perfect 4-0 this season when he starts during the day, with the Phils 5-0 against the moneyline on those occasions. It doesn’t hurt that the Mets are batting a mere .204 against lefties over their last 10 games, which speaks volumes to the effect the injured triumvirate of Beltran, Reyes, and Delgado has on the Mets offense.

Johan Santana (9-6, 3.34 ERA) goes up against Joe Blanton (4-4, 5.08 ERA) in Sunday’s series finale (1:35 PM ET), with the Mets ace looking to get back on track after some uncharacteristically average outings. Santana has also been overvalued away from Citi Field this season, with a 3-4 record and 5.18 ERA on the road.

Like Moyer and the rest of the Phils starting rotation, Blanton hasn’t enjoyed life in his home ballpark. Blanton has a 6.05 ERA at Citizens Bank this year, contributing to Philadelphia’s money-bleeding ways for backers when it plays at home. The Phillies come into the weekend series only 13-22 at home this season, down -17.92 units for backers. That’s the second-worst mark on the MLB moneylist, with Philly trailing only the Arizona Diamondbacks as a home wager.

New York leads the season series 4-3, and that includes a split in a two-game series in Philadelphia in May. The Phillies took two of three from the Mets the last time the rivals hooked up at Citi Field last month, with both paydays coming in extra innings.

The Chicago White Sox send Mark Buehrle to the hill against the Royals in the opener of a four-game series in Kansas City this evening.

Buerhle enters tonight fray with the ChiSox owning wins in five of his last six road starts, totaling just six walks and 27 strikeouts in those efforts. He's also 13-2 in his last 15 team starts in this series.

Kansas City counters with journeyman lefthander Bruce Chen who will be making just his second trip to a major league mound since 2007.  In his first start against a weak-hitting Pirates club at Pittsburgh's PNC Park last Saturday, Chen was charged with four runs in 6.1 innings as the Royals were handed a 6-2 defeat.

Back the better team with the better arm here tonight.

Free Pick: White Sox -146

Our Thursday afternoon MLB selection is on the Cincinnati Reds at home in Porkopolis over the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Righthanded veteran Aaron Harang is usually one of the Reds' most reliable starters and that has been true for most of this season as well. Although, in Harang's last start on June 26 he had his second-worst start of the year when he went into Cleveland and gave up seven runs (five earned) on 10 hits in just 4.2 innings. A start at home against the Diamondbacks may be just what the doctor ordered for Harang and the Reds.

Tonight's Arizona starter, veteran Doug Davis, epitomizes exactly what's wrong with this team. Davis has actually been one of the better starters in the NL this season, but you'd never know it from his record. Despite a 3.28 ERA and quality starts in 10 of his 16 outings this season, Davis has a pathetic 3-8 record.

Arizona combines that deadly combination of a very weak hitting lineup with extremely poor defense which usually results in a loss (hence its 31-46 record, the third-worst in the majors). The Diamondbacks are the worst defensive team in baseball, leading all others with 71 team errors through last weekend.

Cincinnati's on a bit of a roll having moved into third place in its division ahead of the Cubs, and only four games back while flirting once again with the .500 mark. Take the Reds.

Free Pick: Reds -133

The Under is now on a 12-2-1 run in the last 15 Houston Astros games after the first three games of this four-game series vs. the San Diego Padres all went Under, and given that Petco Park is the most pitcher-friendly stadium in baseball, look for more of the same tonight.

Granted, it took a minor miracle for the game last night to stay Under 8½, as Houston led 6-1 in the middle of the fourth inning, but remember that shoddy defense was a contributing factor. Only three of those early runs was earned, and the fact that the teams needed that help to score is an indication of how difficult it is to score here. In fact, all games at Petco this year have averaged on 7.56 total runs combined.

Padres starter Kevin Correia has caught fire lately, as he has now recorded five consecutive Quality Starts. More impressive is the fact that this streak is not solely a function of pitching in this stadium, as two of those starts came on the road. It is also worth noting that Correia already has a Quality Start in his only start vs. the Astros this season, and that outing came at Houston in a more hitter-friendly stadium.

The Astros counter with Wandy Rodriguez, who is 6-6 but with a very good 3.35 ERA. Sure, Wandy has continued his annoying habit of pitching extremely well at home and being very mediocre on the road, but he did toss a gem in his last road start, allowing only one run an two hits in seven innings in a 4-1 Houston victory vs. the Minnesota Twins at the Metrodome. Rodriguez will also be aided by that fact that San Diego is batting .199 vs. southpaws at home.

This may look like a low total at first glance, but the Under is now 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings in San Diego with five of those games producing a total runs output of seven or less. 

Free Pick: Astros, Padres Under 7½ (-125)

The White Sox and Indians conclude their three-game series when Jose Contreras matches serves with Jeremy Sowers at Progressive Field in Cleveland tonight.

Chicago begins the day on a four-game winning streak during which their offense has come alive with 31 runs crossing the plate.  In last night's rain-shortened win, the ChiSox socred 11 times, getting home runs from Paul Konerko, Josh Fields and Gordon Beckham.

While both pitchers have struggled of late, Contreras is 3-0 with a 1.92 ERA in his last three team starts against the White Sox. He's also 7-1 his last eight road starts on Wednesdays.

On the flip side, Sowers is 0-5 with a 7.71 ERA in his career team starts against the Pale Hose. With that, look for Chicago to complete the sweep here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the White Sox with Contreras versus Sowers.

Free Pick: White Sox +100

The Mariners have been the ultimate Under team this season, now 44-29-2 on the season. Seattle owns a team ERA of just 3.65 while featuring an offense that has scored just 3.8 runs per game. The Under is 19-7-1 in the last 27 road games for the Mariners and there is sure to be an inflated total in this matchup being played at Yankee Stadium.

Although the new ballpark has been considered a home run haven so far this season, the Over is just slightly ahead of the Under, and in the last 20 New York games the Under has cashed 13 times.

Jarrod Washburn has delivered a standout season for the Mariners with a 3.22 ERA. Washburn owns just a 4-5 record but he has allowed two or fewer earned runs ten times this year. Opposing batters are hitting just .232 against Washburn and the ‘under’ is 9-5 in his starts.

Seattle features the second-best bullpen ERA in all of baseball and the Yankees have gone on a cold offensive stretch, hitting just .256 in the last 10 games. At home this season the Yankees are batting just .267 in contrast to the assumptions of incredible production.

Veteran Andy Pettitte has allowed four or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts and the Under is 6-1 in his last seven outings, including 4-0 in his last four home starts. New York’s bullpen has also made great strides from the early season struggles as the unit now features a 4.27 ERA and a .232 batting average against.

For the season Yankee Stadium has averaged 11 runs per game, but those numbers have dropped considerably in the past month, down to below 10 runs per game in the last 15 home games. Expect lower than listed scoring in what should be a tough pitchers duel with two lefthanded starters.

Free Pick: Mariners-Yankees Under 9½ (-110)

It’s all about pitching.

When it comes to baseball, there is one man on the diamond who has the outcome literally in the palm of his hand. Everybody else is merely reacting to what the pitcher is doing. Not every baseball GM or ardent statistician will agree with this assessment, but the unforgiving bottom line has trained handicappers to pay more attention to the guys on the mound than anyone else.

We’ve already seen some tremendous pitching in the series between the San Francisco Giants (42-34, plus-8.86 units) and the St. Louis Cardinals (41-38, minus-3.70 units). As it should be; the Giants are tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for first in the majors with a team ERA of 3.61. St. Louis is tied with the Atlanta Braves for fourth overall with a 3.89 ERA. But the pitching displays in the first two games of their series at the new Busch Stadium were rather one-sided in favor of the Giants. Both games went Over.

We’ll see if the Cardinals can do better Wednesday night, starting at 8:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. Adam Wainwright (3.51 ERA, 4.00 xFIP) has a 10-6 team record for St. Louis, good enough for 1.38 units of profit. This is 6-foot-7 and 230 pounds of raw power on the loose; Wainwright is No. 10 in the National League with 89 strikeouts, and he’s gone at least six innings in each of his last 12 starts.

The Giants respond with Matt Cain (2.57 ERA, 4.44 xFIP), who has gone from the outhouse to the penthouse in the MLB money standings. In 2007, even with a solid ERA of 3.65 (4.66 xFIP), Cain was dead last out of 315 starting pitchers with 18.03 units of debt on a team record of 9-23. Fast forward to 2009, and Cain finds himself No. 6 overall with 6.19 units of profit on a team record of 11-4.

So you may have noticed the gaping crevasse between Cain’s ERA and his xFIP, which is indeed higher than Wainwright’s. The Giants have somehow managed to strand 86.7 percent of runners this year with Cain on the mound. This is the highest percentage for any starting pitcher in the majors – Kevin Millwood of the Texas Rangers is next at 85.9 percent. This is also highly unsustainable. More of Cain’s runners are almost certain to cash in as the innings accumulate and his left-on-base percentage regresses to something closer to last year’s 75.3.

Wainwright’s 76.7 LOB percentage is much more consistent with his performance since joining the majors in 2005, the same year as Cain. It’s fair to conclude that Wainwright is likely to have a better night on the mound than Cain. But that’s judging by defense-independent criteria. When you put the defense back in, you can start to see how the Giants have been able to keep the money taps flowing. The Cardinals are No. 8 in the majors with 53 errors; San Fran is No. 24 with just 37 errors. Wainwright has seen five unearned runs go up on the board compared to one for Cain.

The Giants also make it easier for Cain to earn the W with a bullpen ERA of 3.39, or No. 6 overall. The Cards are ranked No. 12 with a 3.97 ERA, and they’ve tossed seven innings of relief over the past two games compared to 3.2 innings for San Francisco. The one positive for St. Louis is that closer Ryan Franklin (0.93 ERA, 3.89 xFIP) is fresh after three days of rest and relaxation. Franklin hasn’t allowed a run, earned or otherwise, in his last 11 appearances dating back to May 20.

To pay lip service to the hitters, we should mention that both teams are pretty bad in this department. St. Louis is No. 19 in the majors with a .735 OPS, and newly acquired Mark DeRosa (.799 OPS with Cleveland this year) might not be able to play third base after reporting a “little tweak” in his left wrist during an at-bat on Tuesday. Joe Thurston (.708 OPS) is a likely candidate to play Wednesday. The Giants are No. 28 in team OPS at an even .700.

The betting odds have St. Louis pegged as a -135 home favorite with a total of 7.5 runs. The Giants are 4-1 against the Cards this year and 12-5 over the past three seasons. Again, despite all that great pitching, the over is 9-2 in their last 11 meetings.

Our Tuesday night MLB selection is on the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees remaining under the total in the Bronx.

Seattle righthander Brandon Morrow is back in the rotation where he wants to be.  Morrow never really wanted to be a closer, but he didn't have the arm strength to go seven or eight innings every five days earlier in the year.  Now he is trying to make the transition back to starter and so far this latest venture back into the rotation is going pretty well.

The Mariners have taken it slowly with Morrow, and increased his innings in his first three starts from three to four and then to five in his last start at home against San Diego.  Tonight should prove to be the toughest of his starting tasks so far, pitching in Yankee Stadium against one of the best lineups, and against another converted reliever in Joba Chamberlain.

Chamberlain put together a very solid outing against the Braves in his last start, and the part that the Yankees no doubt like the most was the fact that he exhibited great control, issuing no walks on that occasion after giving up nine free passes in his two prior starts combined.

In the five games which Morrow has appeared in for the Mariners in June (two relief efforts; three starts) the Mariners have only scored a total of 13 runs, and in those five games a total of only 29 runs have crossed the plate, or an average of less than six runs per game.  I foresee a low-scoring game here.  Take the Under.

Free Pick: Mariners-Yankees Under 10 (-120)

The New York Yankees are rolling. They’ve won five straight overall and look to extend their current streak while hoping to maintain their dominance of the Seattle Mariners.

The Yanks have been crushing the baseball against the Mariners hitting .348 while averaging 9.0 runs during an eight-game winning streak at home versus Seattle. This will be the teams' first meeting at the new Yankee Stadium, aka Coors Field of the East.

New York has also dominated the Mariners on the mound during this streak. The Yankees have posted a 2.75 ERA in their last eight meetings and with Joba Chamberlain on the hill the Bronx Bombers are hopeful of another strong performance.This will be Joba’s first career appearance against Seattle.

The Mariners will counter with reliever-turned-starter Brendan Morrow who is 0-3 this season and will be making his fourth start following 16 relief appearances.  His ERA is an astronomical 5.64.

It’s doubtful that Seattle’s woeful offense will be able to take advantage of the new Yankee Stadium launching pad. The Mariners rank 29th in runs scored and 20th in homeruns. Seattle is middle of the pack with a .260 team batting average and their lack of punch is evident in a 44-29-2 record to the Under.

And while the Yanks rank in the top three in all of baseball in home runs, runs per game and OPS, it usually takes some help from the other side to cash the Over. The Yankees are 6-4 to the Under in their last 10 outings.

Free Pick: Mariners-Yankees Under 10 -114

The Los Angeles Angels (42-32) are on a 6-0 run and look to make it a seven-game run tonight against the Texas Rangers (40-35) at the Ballpark in Arlington.

The Angels will be sending Joe Saunders to the hill who is 0-4 with a 10.29 ERA in Arlington in his career. He pitched here earlier this season allowing seven earned runs in just 5.1 innings. Saunders has produced just one quality start in four on the road lately and has a 4.57 ERA on the highway this season overall, vs. a 2.95 ERA pitching at home.

The Rangers counter with Scott Feldman on the mound tonight. He pitched six scoreless innings in a no-decision game earlier this season vs. the Angels. In his last start on June 25, he pitched six quality innings against Arizona allowing three earned runs and four hits to grab the victory. Feldman has been decent at home this season with a 3.82 ERA, and in his last home start he pitched five shutout innings against the Dodgers, giving up just three hits.

Texas has won three of the four meetings between the two teams this season and five of the last seven overall. Their bullpen has a 2.25 ERA in their last 10 games and seems to be getting a grip on things. Considering how shaky the Angels bullpen has been this season gives us confidence when both starts are done for the evening.

The Rangers are 7-1 in Feldman's last eight starts following a quality start. We can expect him to continue pitching solid tonight and look for Saunders' woes to continue in Arlington. We'll back the Rangers laying the short chalk tonight to even things up.

Free Pick: Rangers -115

It seems to me the wrong team is favored in tonight’s AL West battle between the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers.

The Angels are clicking on all cylinders right now. They swept the hapless Arizona Diamondbacks, which in itself isn’t any great shakes. But the way the Halos did it speaks volumes about how much this club has improved over the last month. The Angels hit with runners in scoring position and hit for power. They were aggressive on the basepaths and they played solid defense.

They got great starting pitching in two of the three games and closer Brian Fuentes was lights out in his two appearances. Even the LA defense, which entered Sunday’s game with the worst bullpen ERA in baseball (5.51), stepped up big in the series finale. The Angels have now won five straight and seem to be playing their baseball of the season just in time for this week’s series against the second-place Rangers.

Texas swept Anaheim in May taking three games and beating Jered Weaver, John Lackey and Joe Saunders in that order. However this isn’t the same Texas team. Without the injured Josh Hamilton the offense has struggled. Case in point the once mighty Rangers managed just one hit Sunday against Chad Gaudin of the Padres.

Texas is 3-7 in its last 10 games and scored a total of 15 runs in those seven losses. The Angels are 7-3 over that same period in which they scored 12 runs on two different occasions and 1 runs in another.

Tonight’s pitching matchup has Angels rookie Sean O’ Sullivan facing Vicente Padilla. O’ Sullivan is 1-0 with an ERA of 3.00 while the veteran Padilla is 6-3 including a 3-0 mark with a 2.16 ERA in his last three outings.

Consider as well that with interleague play in the rear view mirror, Vlad Guerrero returns to the Angels lineup, giving them yet another weapon. If, or maybe when, Guerrero regains his power stroke, look out for the Angels.

Free Pick: Angels +120

The Colorado Rockies and Dodgers return to play in the Senior Circuit when Ubaldo Jimenez matches serves with Randy Wolf in Los Angeles tonight.

Jimenez enters tonight game in solid current form with three wins and a loss in his last four starts, posting a 3.23 ERA in that span.  Two of those wins came against the tough Tampa Bay Rays at home and on the road against Albert Pujols and the St. Louis Cardinals.

On the flip side, Wolf is in rocky form with a 6.66 ERA in his last five starts and favored (-130) to boot. With that, look for Wolf to drop to 6-15 on Mondays here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Colorado with Jimenez versus Wolf.

Free Pick: Rockies +110

Our Monday night MLB selection is on the Texas Rangers at home in Arlington over the Los Angeles Angels in a crucial AL West contest.

Interleague play is over and the Rangers are probably quite pleased about that.  Not that they played that badly in the games vs. the National League (they went .500 during the 18 interleague contests this season), but they definitely didn't want to see their chief rival in the division – and tonight's foe – have any more success at the expense of the NL.

The Angels simply killed their opposition during interleague play this season, going a league-best 14-4 and pulling into first place in the race for the AL West title in the process.  So this series is huge as we head towards the All-Star break two weeks from now, and the Rangers get to start out with their hottest starter of late, veteran righthander Vicente Padilla.

The one-time Phillie is not only the hottest Ranger pitcher, but he's arguably been one of the best in the AL over his past four starts dating back to June 7, going 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA.  Padilla isn't a strikeout pitcher as his 40 Ks in just over 78 innings will attest, but he's a smart veteran who relies on changing speeds and picking batters apart.

He's done well in his career against the Angels, going 6-3 in 12 lifetime starts against them, including a big win on May 16 at this same ballpark when he almost went all the way (eight innings).  He should step up big again tonight in Arlington.

Free Pick: Rangers -125

It appeared the AL Central leading Tigers would get swept in their first series of their current nine-game road trip, but a clutch homer by Brandon Inge put Detroit in the win column versus Houston on Sunday. Detroit will look to ride that momentum into a three-game series in Oakland with the first game set for Monday night.

The Athletics have lost five straight and are a league-worst 5-13 since June 9. The Tigers outscored the Athletics 34-9 during a three-game sweep in Detroit back in May, but the Tigers have struggled here when facing the Athletics, losing seven of their last eight trips to the Bay Area.

Oakland will send Brett Anderson to the bump with his record of 3-7 and 5.74 ERA. He has only faced the Tigers once and that was back in May giving up nine runs and six hits in 3.1 innings of work in a 14-1 loss.

The Tigers will send Rick Porcello to the hill with his 8-4 record and an ERA of 3.55. Porcello is 2-1 with a 3.67 ERA in five starts this month, and in his only appearance against the Athletics in May he threw for six innings allowing one run and three hits in a 9-1 win. We expect more of the same as the Tigers ride the momentum of Sunday's win over Houston and Porcellos arm to a victory.

The Athletics are 9-26 (-17.2) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Detroit is 22-6 (+14.2) after six consecutive games versus interleague opponents the last three seasons and 14-4 (+9.4) against AL West opponents this season. Lay the chalk with the Tigers as they get the win on Monday night over the Athletics.

Projected Final Score: Detroit-6 Oakland-5

Free Pick: Tigers -122

Bettors anticipated the American League East was going to be baseball’s most competitive division back in spring training, but no one was prepared for this:

• Boston Red Sox  46-29, .613 (+70 run differential)
• New York Yankees 42-32, .568 (+53)
• Tampa Bay Rays  42-35, .545 (+87)
• Toronto Blue Jays 41-36, .532 (+41)

You can make a strong argument these four clubs are the best overall in the AL. The Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers currently have better records than Tampa Bay and Toronto, but the latter pair is first and fourth, respectively, in run differential. With Boston and New York holding on to the two top spots in the division, bettors get a chance to handicap the other powerhouses in the AL East when the Blue Jays (41-36, +2.72 units) host the Rays (42-35, +1.98 units) for a three-game series beginning on Monday night.

Toronto ace Roy Halladay (10-1, 2.53 ERA) comes off the 15-day disabled list after missing just over two weeks with a strained groin to make his return on Monday night. Halladay suffered the injury in the Jays’ 7-3 loss as -210 home chalk to the Florida Marlins back on June 12, going three innings before leaving the game.

Prior to hitting the DL, Halladay was on fire for backers, with only one start where he allowed more than three runs over his last nine outings. Not that the bump in the road was hurtful for Jays’ bettors’ bankrolls: The Doctor gave up four runs in a complete-game win over the Angels on June 2, striking out a career-high 14 batters as Toronto cashed as -170 favorites on the betting odds board.

Bettors should think twice about taking Halladay and the Jays as -185 moneyline faves for Game 1 (7:07 PM ET), and not just because of the hefty price on Toronto. Rays starter Jeff Niemann (6-4, 4.23 ERA) is up +6.60 units this season, good for fourth for major league starters this year. Tampa Bay is 10-4 against the moneyline in Niemann’s 14 outings this season, including 3-0 in his last three trips to the hill. Oddsmakers have the Rays as +170 underdogs for the opener, with the total set at 8.5.

The Rays are among the hottest wagers in the game right now, with seven ML victories over their last eight matchups. Tampa Bay is coming off a three-game sweep of the Florida Marlins at Tropicana Field, with David Price getting the win in Sunday’s 5-2 victory as -166 faves. B.J Upton was 2-for-4 with a homer for Tampa Bay, which hasn’t had as much success cashing away from home lately. The Rays are only 4-10 in their last 14 contests on the road.

The Jays are one of the most profitable home bets in baseball at +4.99 units (24-16 ML), although they didn’t take too much coin over the weekend. Toronto dropped two of three to the visiting Philadelphia Phillies, blowing a four-run lead to lose Sunday’s series finale 5-4 as -143 chalk. Brian Tallet allowed four earned runs over six innings to take the loss for Toronto, which has played over the listed total in 10 of Halladay’s last 12 starts north of the border.

Tuesday night’s Game 2 (7:07 PM ET) is a battle between the Rays’ Matt Garza (5-5, 3.61 ERA) and the Jays’ Scott Richmond (6-4, 3.68 ERA). Tampa Bay has struggled at the window when Garza takes the ball on the road this season, with only one payday in the righthander’s seven starts away from Tropicana Field. Richmond comes into the game 19th on the starters’ moneylist (+4.48 units), as Toronto is 8-4 ML in his 12 starts this season.

Wednesday’s getaway game (1:07 PM ET) sees James Shields (6-5, 3.41 ERA) toe the rubber for the Rays against surprising Jays lefthander Ricky Romero (5-3, 3.20 ERA). Toronto is 3-0 in Romero’s last three outings, during which he’s put up a 2.14 ERA. Tampa Bay is also a perfect 3-0 against the moneyline in Shields’ last three starts, as the Rays have gone 5-10 O/U in his last 15 trips to the bump.

The series is the first meeting this season between the division rivals. Tampa Bay took last year’s season series 11-7, with Toronto cashing in five of the eight games played at Rogers Centre.

The Detroit Tigers are coming off of a three-game series at Houston where they scored a grand total of nine runs, whole the Oakland Athletics have scored three runs or less in four of their last five games.

Now Oakland starter Brett Anderson has some very mediocre overall numbers, but he is coming off of one of his better outings vs. the San Diego Padres, and the spacious dimensions of McAfee Coliseum should help him also. It does not hurt his cause that the aforementioned struggling Detroit offense is batting just .231 vs. left-handed pitching on the road over the entire season, and he has the support of an Athletics bullpen that has a sparkling 2.63 ERA the last 10 games.

The Tigers counter with Rick Porcello, who is quietly having a very solid season with an 8-4 record and a nice 3.55 ERA in 14 starts. He has impressively allowed three runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts, including allowing two earned runs or less in two of those outings. He also has the support of a hot bullpen, as the Detroit pen has a 2.96 ERA the last 10 games, and he is facing an Oakland lineup that is batting .a pathetic 238 overall this year.

The bottom line here is we have two offenses with poor splits vs. the arm orientation of the opposing starter tonight and two solid bullpens, which should mean this game stays in singlr-digits.

Free Pick: Tigers, Athletics Under 9 (-120)

The Oakland Athletics are sad to see their interleague schedule come to an end vs. the Colorado Rockies today.

Oakland is 20-7 their last 27 interleague games vs. left-handed starters and they are 66-31 their last 97 interleague home games. The Athletics are 8-3 their last 11 games as home favorites. Starter Trevor Cahill has allowed three runs or less in his last seven starts.

Colorado is 23-55 their last 78 interleague games on the road and they are 15-46 their last 61 interleague road games vs. right-handed starters. The Rockies are 1-8 their last 9 interleague games vs. losing teams.

Play on Oakland with Cahill today.

Free Pick: Athletics -121

Seattle's 23-year old Felix Hernandez is arguably the hottest starter in baseball right now. In his last six starts he has a 1.00 ERA, giving up one or less earned runs in five of six of those starts. He has pitched seven of eight quality starts in a row and has a 98/31 strikeout/walk ratio on the year.

The Mariners have won his last seven interleague starts as he continues to dominate National League batters. He has beaten both San Diego and San Francisco, allowing just one earned run in 2009 interleague play.

They get to face Dodgers hurler Eric Milton who is coming off the disabled list. It's a great spot to fade the southpaw today who hasn't pitched since June 5. In what will be his first start back from a back injury, he has to take on a Mariners club that is batting .317 vs. lefties in their last 10 games.

It's always a good spot to fade or stay away from a pitcher in their first appearance back from the DL; a pitcher's body is used to a routine of pitching every five days and it's amazing how one 15-day trip on the DL can mess things up.

This is tremendous value with Seattle and the hottest pitcher in baseball laying such a short number against a guy off the disabled list who has pitched just 18.2 innings all year. LA is 1-4 in their last five games as home pups. Grab up the value with the Mariners to even things up tonight.

Free Pick: Mariners -123

The Rockies hit over .300 as a team (.305) while winning 17 of 18 games from June 4-22, but then dropped consecutive games to the Angels on Tuesday (4-3) and Wednesday (11-3).

After an off-day on Thursday, the Rockies beat the A's 4-2 last night, giving them 18 wins in their last 21 games. The win also snapped a seven-game road losing streak in Oakland to the A's.

Oakland has now dropped 11 of its last 16 overall and continues to struggle at the plate, entering this game with a ML-low .235 team batting average. Rookie Trevor Cahill will try to change his team's "mojo" and why not? He's 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in his last four starts (all Oakland wins), after going 2-5 with a 4.33 ERA in his first 11 outings.

A closer look at his 5-5 (3.38 ERA) season shows that he's had two starts in which he's allowed seven ERs, lasting a total of just five innings in those outings. In Cahill's other 13 starts, he's allowed two ERs or less 12 times, while allowing just three ERs in the other one. Eliminate those two awful outings and the rookie owns a 2.34 ERA in his other 13 starts, which is really quite impressive.

Jorge De La Rosa (3-7, 5.85 ERA) gets the start for the Rockies. The lefty opened the season 0-6 with a 5.43 ERA in his first 10 starts (team was 2-8), but is 3-1 in his last four starts despite a 6.97 ERA. Is he really getting better? I think not and if not for the fact that Oakland is just 10-17 (3.6 RPG) vs lefties in 2009, I'd be "all over" the A's in this one. As is, let's make Oakland a small play.

Free Play: Athletics -137

The White Sox send Mark Buerhle to the hill at home against Ryan Dempster and the Cubs this afternoon in Game 2 of this three-game cross-town rivalry.

Buerhle enters today's game with 17 wins in his last 21 home team starts.  The veteran southpaw has a 3.89 ERA in his last five starts vs. the Cubs, limiting their hitters to a .237 batting average.  The South Siders are 5-3 in his eight starts at The Cell this season.

Meanwhile, Dempster has dropped 10 of his last 11 road starts, including his last seven in a row. Stay at home with Buerhle and the Pale Hose here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on the White Sox with Buerhle versus Dempster.

Free Pick: White Sox -133

John Lackey of the Los Angeles Angels still does not look healthy since coming off of the Disabled List, and with the Halos offense in high gear, we look for a slugfest when they visit the Arizona Diamondbacks today.

Lackey is one of the best pitchers in baseball when he is healthy, bit he is obviously not 100 percent yet. He is 2-3 with an uncharacteristic 5.83 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, and the alarming part is that he is not getting any better.

He has allowed at least nine hits in each of his last three starts, during which time he has an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. He has also thrown 217 pitches over his last two games, which may have an effect on him considering his first start was not until May 16.

Now granted, Doug Davis has pitched much better than his 3-8 record for Arizona, but he has questionable stamina, which means that the bullpen will almost certainly be called upon tonight. That unit has imploded recently with a collective 5.40 ERA over the last 10 games, and the ineffectiveness of that unit is also the main reason that Davis does not have a better record with his 3.34 ERA.

Finally, do not lose sight of the fact that the Angels have scored 12 and 11 runs in their last two games respectively, so they are fully capable of gong Over this total by themselves.

Free Pick: Angels, Diamondbacks Over 9½ (-105)

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Starting pitchers just ain't what they used to be when going the distance in a game was the norm.  From closers to setup arms to middle relievers, bullpens are playing a bigger role in the outcome of games today.

Last week Cubs closer Kevin Gregg served up a two-run, walk-off home run to pinch-hitter Ryan Raburn in a 5-4 loss to Detroit. Lou Piniella's response was brief.

"Look, one-run leads on the road," he said. "Not the easiest thing in the world."

The Cubs started 3-10 in one-run games on the road. Unreliable relief pitching can prevent hot streaks and sap a team's confidence. In addition, if a bullpen has to be used more it could potentially tax others in the pen for the next game or two. That is a problem the Washington Nationals have had, with a league-high in blown saves.

Bullpens are an important part of baseball wagering these days. Expansion over the last 16 years has diluted the pool of quality starters. Many teams look for a fourth or fifth starter just to go five innings and hope for as little damage as possible. All of which makes the guys coming in from the pen for the final four innings of those games even more important.

Cubs starting pitchers have had a sizzling 2.69 ERA in June, far and away the best in the National League, but have a .500 record. Their team ERA was  one of the best in baseball, tops in quality starters, but one of the worst in saves in the NL. The Cleveland Indians have had a frustrating 2009 season, bogged down by what has been an awful relief staff.

Relief pitching has become an intricate, often overlooked, part of baseball. Starting pitchers are often pampered, making relievers ever more important. In 1970, there were eight pitchers who topped 290 innings for the season. Four of them topped 300 innings, with Gaylord Perry leading the way with 329.  In 1980, Steve Carlton threw 303 innings, and as recently as 1988, pitchers Dave Stewart and Orel Hershiser each topped 300 innings in the regular and postseasons combined.

It is a very different ballgame today. Three years ago, only three starters topped 240 innings, with Livan Hernandez (246), Chris Carpenter (241) and Roy Oswalt (241) leading the way. Only two did it last season, C.C. Sabathia (253) and Roy Halladay (246). Relief pitchers used to be considered less-significant specialists or guys who didn’t have the strength to be starters. Now general managers build teams with the idea of having several middle relievers, one or two lefty specialists, and a reliable closer. For most starting pitchers, logging 200 innings, not 300, is the new watermark.

Money is part of the reason. Many pitchers are coddled in the minor leagues because teams don’t want to blow out the arm of a promising young pitcher. Expansion has made pitching the rarest of commodities and organizations would rather have a young arm go seven innings instead of nine to save wear and tear. Few pitchers complain about the lighter workload, as their livelihoods are at stake.

The case of the 1980 Oakland A’s starting staff has been well chronicled. Oakland had a talented young rotation of Mike Norris (age 25), Rick Langford (28), Matt Keough (24), Steve McCatty (26) and Brian Kingman (25). All pitched over 200 innings, with Norris throwing 24 complete games, Keough completing 20 and Langford leading the majors with 28 complete games. To put that in perspective, Halladay had nine complete games last season.

Old school manager Billy Martin thought pitchers developed arm strength by throwing a lot. That rotation developed more than strength: All five suffered arm trouble and flamed out fast as effective starters, prompting the rest of the baseball world to take note. The concept of the pitch count and coddling young arms was born, which is widely practiced today.

The bullpen is now a vital asset. No longer do teams put their worst pitchers in the pen and the Hall of Fame is slowly building a wall of talented stoppers. The 1990 Reds stunned the baseball world by upsetting the Pirates in the NLCS and the mighty A's in the World Series. Cincinnati stormed through the postseason with brilliant relief pitching in Norm Charlton, Rob Dibble and Randy Myers. Dibble and Myers were co-MVPs of the NLCS and when the Reds swept the Athletics in the World Series, managers around the league recognized how valuable a deep pen can be.

The Angels utilized a similar formula in winning the title seven years ago. Anaheim had a great offense, average starting pitching and a brilliant pen, anchored by Brandon Donnelly, Troy Percival, Francisco Rodriguez, Scott Shields and Ben Weber. In 2005, the White Sox had great starting pitching AND a deep, hard throwing young bullpen. The pen is mightier than the sword, but is it mightier than good starting pitching? Not if that pen can't get anyone out. Bullpen strength is a key component that can't be ignored - by baseball teams and baseball bettors.

Josh Beckett has been dominant and then some against the Atlanta Braves. The Texas fireballer blanked the Braves last Saturday going the distance on a five-hitter and needed just 94 pitches to get the job done.

He’s now 5-0 lifetime against the Bravos with a miniscule 0.45 ERA. Will he be even better tonight against Atlanta? Short of a no-hitter, probably not. But Beckett with just average “stuff” figures to be more than Atlanta can handle. Beckett hasn’t just dominated against the Braves either. He’s 8-3 on the year and is on a nice 6-0 run (one no-decision) and has an ERA of less than 1.50.

On the flip side, Jair Jurrjens, the clutch Dutch, is the best .500 pitcher in baseball. He’s just 5-5 but his ERA is a paltry 2.89.

However even with all the glossy pitching stats I’ve presented there’s the little issue of offense. The Red Sox have played four straight games to the high side while the Braves have a mini 2-0 Over streak.

Atlanta has seen Beckett’s best and they should fare much better tonight. The Red Sox are coming off a 9-3 loss to the lowly Nats on Thursday and should rebound with the bats tonight, especially in hitter-friendly Turner Field. Two of the three series matchups last weekend topped the total and I see another one tonight.

Boston ranks third in the majors in RPG and OPS. The Red Sox are fifth in HR’s and 8th in BA. Those numbers are a good indicator that a team as offensively potent as the Sox, aren’t likely to be shutdown for two days in a row.

Free Pick: Red Sox-Braves Over 8 (+110)

Yankees lefthander C.C. Sabathia only pitched into the second inning his last start before experiencing tightness in his throwing bicep. Not a good sign! Especially for a big name ace who is going to be favored a lot.

He says he's fine, but all pitchers say that. It's unknown what C.C. will be able to bring to the hill for this game and he faces a Mets team that is tops in the NL in batting average and steals, and second in OBP.

Mets starter Mike Pelfrey is decent overall this season (5-2, 4.74) and unbeaten at home in new Citi Field. He has a 3.95 ERA at home and offers great value tonight at this price pitching against Sabathia. Play the Mets.

Free Pick: Mets +153

Josh Johnson of the Florida Marlins has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball, while James Shields of the Tampa Bay Rays has always pitched well at home, so do not expect much scoring at The Trop tonight.

Johnson is 7-1 with an excellent 2.66 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 105 innings, and just like many other pitchers that have undergone the procedure, he actually looks stronger and has more velocity after his Tommy John surgery. You will be hard pressed to find a more consistent starter than Johnson, as he has allowed three runs or less in 14 of his 15 starts this season and he is among the leaders in the Major Leagues with his 13 Quality Starts.

Shields has pitched well at home ever since he became a fixture in the Rays rotation, and this year is no exception. He is 4-2 with a 3.07 ERA here, as he has allowed three earned runs or less in six of his last seven home starts, and he allowed only four runs on the lone non-quality outing. He is also in great current form, with four Quality Starts in his last five outings after allowing just one run on three hits in seven innings vs. the New York Mets on Saturday.

Finally, the Under is 10-4 in all Shields starts this year, and given the quality of his mound opponent tonight, we look for that trend to continue.

Free Pick: Marlins, Rays Under 8 (-110)

Ted Lilly has been the most consistent starter for the Chicago Cubs this season, while Armando Galarrago has allowed three earned runs in four of his last five starts for the Detroit tigers after an abysmal month of May.

Lilly has a 3.04 ERA and an excellent 1.06 WHIP in 91.2 innings this year, and perhaps most impressively, he now has nine Quality Starts in his last 10 starts. He has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five outings, and he is facing a Tigers lineup that is suddenly struggling vs. left-handed pitchers, batting only .208 vs. southpaws over the last 10 games. Also, the Under is 9-5, 64.3 percent in all games started by Lilly this season.

Galarraga had a break-through season last year followed by a terrific April, so his meltdown in May came seemingly out of the blue. His recent return to form is more indicative of his true form though, and the fact that the Cubs have never faced him before gives him an added advantage. It also helps that the Cubs have a poor .237 team batting average on the road this year while averaging only 3.76 runs per game.

Do not look for much scoring in Motown early this afternoon.

Free Pick: Cubs, Tigers Under 9 (-110)

The Detroit Tigers have won six in a row and own one of the better home marks at 22-11.But there's a reason why they are a home 'dog today. That reason is a pitching matchup of Ted Lilly against Armando Galarraga. It's enough to make me lay a small price on the Cubs.

Lilly is underrated. He has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the National League this season. He's 5-2 with a 2.78 ERA in his last 10 starts. He has a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his past 23.1 innings. Lilly is well suited to pitch in spacious Comerica Park, too, being a fly ball pitcher.

As for Galarraga, he shouldn't even be in the majors anymore. He is 0-7 with a 7.48 ERA in his last 10 starts. Opponents are batting .343 against him during this span.

The Cubs are one-for-23 with runners in scoring position during the first two games of this series. A correction is due in short order. Expect it to happen in this matchup.

The Tigers' bullpen worked four innings on Wednesday night. Closer Fernando Rodney had a rocky ninth inning throwing 24 pitches before getting out of a jam.  Chicago is the right call.

Free Pick: Cubs -117

This is not just any baseball game.

Two of the best pitchers in the majors are going to be on display in a special Thursday matinee at Citi Field between the St. Louis Cardinals (40-33, plus-1.87 units) and the New York Mets (36-34, minus-1.08 units). Taking the hill for the home side is Johan Santana (3.22 ERA, 3.82 xFIP), the two-time American League Cy Young winner for Minnesota. Replying for St. Louis is Chris Carpenter (1.53 ERA, 3.31 xFIP), who has pitched sparingly since taking the NL Cy Young in 2005. Our readers in the Big Apple will definitely want to catch this one on SportsNet New York at 1:10 p.m. Eastern.

Early betting odds had Carpenter and the visitors as -120 favorites with a total of seven runs. The under is 6-2-1 for Carpenter as he continues his assault on enemy bats, allowing 10 earned runs in his nine starts with a miniscule 0.72 WHIP. However, St. Louis hasn’t always managed to capitalize on this pitching goodness. The Cards are 5-4 in Carpenter’s starts for a profit of only 0.63 units.

Santana is in the same pickle. He’s throwing brilliantly as usual, posting a 1.19 WHIP on the season and holding the Rays to two runs on three hits last Saturday. Not good enough. The Mets lost 3-1 as –115 home faves to fall to 8-6 in Santana’s 14 starts, 0.34 units in the red. The under is 9-5 for the Mets in those games.

As you may have figured by now, run support has been an issue for both pitchers. The Cardinals are supplying Carpenter with 3.2 runs per game, while the Mets have been even stingier for Santana at 3.1 runs per game. There are some flaws in the offense for both teams, even with big hitters like Albert Pujols (1.154 OPS) and David Wright (.954 OPS) turning baseballs into mush. But this lack of run support is also the product of the two No. 1 pitchers having to face the opposing team’s ace so often – as they will in this matchup.

Ah yes, those flaws. New York was No. 12 in the majors at press time with a .765 OPS, but second from the bottom in home runs with 45. St. Louis is No. 12 in the majors with 78 home runs, but a mediocre No. 19 overall with a .327 OBP. The Cards have been leaning on Pujols (26 homers in 72 games) this year; they’ve been without 3B Troy Glaus (.856 OPS in 2008) all season and have watched transplanted SS Khalil Greene (.665 OPS) struggle at the hot corner. But it’s the Mets who are really suffering medically right now. Here’s the list:

• Carlos Beltran (knee, flu) .952 OPS, 11 SB
• Carlos Delgado (hip) .914 OPS
• Jose Reyes (hamstring) .750 OPS, 11 SB
• Gary Sheffield (knee) .876 OPS

And those are just the hitters. New York is also down a few good men in the bullpen, including would-be top closers J.J. Putz and Billy Wagner, with neither man expected back until August thanks to elbow injuries. Putz (5.22 ERA, 4.92 xFIP) has been a disappointment since coming East in a trade with Seattle, but the Mets bullpen is still ranked No. 5 in the majors with a combined 3.47 ERA. St. Louis firemen are No. 20 with a 4.20 ERA, although closer Ryan Franklin (another ex-Mariner) is amazingly effective this year with three earned runs in 27 innings of work.

Citi Field is doing its part to keep scores low with a park factor of 0.873 for runs. And the two managers in this matchup – Tony La Russa for the Cardinals and Jerry Manuel for the Mets – are both noted exponents of smallball, giving up outs in order to manufacture runs. That approach generally leads to fewer runs, although it does have its strategic uses. It might take a sac bunt or two for either team to score in this matchup.

The Pirates took the loss last night but I won't be surprised if they're able to build some momentum from yesterday's late rally. Down 5-0, the Pirates refused to give up and rallied with four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning.

Even though the defeat was Pittsburgh's fifth straight loss, note that the first four losses came on the road. The Pirates are still a solid 17-13 at home this season while the Indians are just 14-23 on the road. Additionally, note that prior to this series Cleveland had lost six straight games (and allowed 50 runs in those six defeats) before earning the 5-4 victory yesterday.

The Indians' bullpen, which entered the series with a combined 5.35 ERA on the road, almost did them in again on Tuesday and they've got more pitching problems than just the pen tonight. Carl Pavano gets the start for the Tribe and he's been awful in his last two starts. Indeed, he's allowed 15 earned runs on 20 hits in his last 9.2 innings.

Pavano's neck and shoulder have been bothering him and it looks like he's coming back down to his "norm" after enjoying some surprising success in April and May this season. He already has made 14 starts this season and, keep in mind; he has not started more than 17 games since the 2004 season. Injuries and overall ineffectiveness have been an issue for Pavano ever since his fine '04 season when he pitched for the Marlins. It looks like the "wheels are coming off" for Pavano on the '09 season right now.

While Pavano appears to be in "play against" mode right now, Zach Duke of the Pirates is off back-to-back quality starts. In fact, Duke has produced a quality start in 10 of his 14 outings this season. The southpaw has been very strong at home where he's 5-2 with a stellar 2.77 ERA and 1.058 WHIP. The Indians have only seen him once (at Cleveland in 2006) in his career and they managed just four hits in seven innings against him. Consider Pittsburgh.

Free Pick: Pirates -123

The Los Angeles Dodgers and White Sox resume their three-game series when Randy Wolf takes on Gavin Floyd in Chicago.

The old grey Wolf has won seven of his last eight starts, including each of his last three road starts. Only once in his last seven starts has a game produced more than nine runs, tonight's total, with the average in those seveon a little more than 6.5 runs per game.

Meanwhile, Floyd has never lost a team start at home in June in his MLB career, going 8-0. Only one of his last six starting assignments has gone over nine runs.

With Wolf 9-21 Under in his last 30 starts during the first half of the season the last two years and the White Sox 4-15 Under in June this season, look for this game to stay below the total here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Under in the Dodgers/White Sox game.

Free Pick: Dodgers-White Sox Under 9 (-120)

Our Wednesday MLB interleague selection is on the Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers going over the total at Miller Park.

This is an important series for both teams, especially for the Brewers who were in first place in their division when interleague play began but now have fallen behind the Cardinals due to their poor performances against the AL teams over the past couple of weeks.  The biggest reason for the regression has been the decline of Milwaukee's starting pitching.

Dave Bush (tentatively scheduled to pitch tomorrow afternoon's game) is a perfect example, going from a starter who could seemingly do no wrong in April and the first half of May to now being winless since May 19, and not throwing a single quality start during that time.

Tonight's starter, Braden Looper, has also fallen on hard times as he is winless in his four June starts with a 7.97 ERA and a .322 opponents batting average.  It is because of these types of performances that the Brewers are said to be shopping players like outfielder Corey Hart to other teams in search of some quality arms for the second half.

Twins righthander Nick Blackburn has been pitching very well of late and just threw his first career complete game in his last start.  But before you get too excited, consider that that latest gem was against the Pirates – perhaps the weakest offense right now in baseball – and the two starts before that were in Oakland and Seattle, two of the most pitcher-friendly places in the Major Leagues.  Take the Over.

Free Pick: Twins-Brewers Over 9 (+100)

The inevitable baseball burnout has begun for yours truly.  When there are a million games during the season, and I seem to have action on about a quarter of them, it’s bound to happen this time of year.  I’d like to say it is a Michael Jordan type burnout, where the constant winning became a bore to me, but alas, that is not the case.

I need a break from the stats, the streaks, and the trends once in awhile.  Last week I toyed around with my Bet-Like-a-Square project.  It involved a steady diet of Yankees, Red Sox, Phils and Cubs – either as large moneyline favorites, or on the run line.  The project ended with a dismal 1-6 record.  The lesson there is that when you bet like a square, you will probably lose like a square.

Budget that remains after Bet-Like-A-Square Project

New York Yankees -137
Atlanta Braves +127
It looks like my square betting will continue for at least one more game, as I’m backing the Yankees as a road favorite.  Joba Chamberlain (3-2, 3.89) and the slightly fading Yankees will be facing the Braves and their lackluster offense.

Kenshin Kawakami (4-6, 4.42) will be starting/getting knocked around by Yankee hitters.  He’s actually been fantastic vs. the AL East this year.  In three starts against Boston, Baltimore and Toronto he is 2-0, 1.90 ERA, 15 Ks in 19 IP.  New York’s high-powered hitting (second in MLB run scoring, first home runs) should change Kawakami’s AL East fortunes.  That’s the plan, at least.

Philadelphia Phillies +158
Tampa Bay Rays -168

Garza gets it done

When I am in need of a big win, I can almost always count on Garza.  Will he be able to shut down the NL East leading, defending world champion Phillies?  Will the highest scoring team in baseball be able to inflate Joe Blanton’s 5.28 ERA?  I hope so.  After last night’s throttling, they need some serious vindication.

Baltimore Orioles +128
Florida Marlins -138
How many runs will be scored in this game?  Ten?  Twenty?  Both starting pitchers own ERA’s off the Richter Scale.  Baltimore’s Jason Berken (1-3, 6.84) will face Florida’s Ricky Nolasco (3-6, 7.15).  The o/u for the game is only nine.  Something seems strange about that. 

I was going to play the Marlins, but over the course of the last 15 minutes, I’ve talked myself into the over.  Perhaps I’ll play both.  I’m loosey goosey these days and not putting too much thought into anything.  The number crunching will come back soon enough, but everyone needs a break. 

So the Yankees, the Rays as a big home favorite and an Over with two high ERA pitchers starting.  It looks like the square project is continuing.  Crap.

Manny Ramirez returns to baseball Tuesday night as he begins a minor league rehab in Albuquerque, New Mexico. It’s a state famous for its UFO sightings and the perfect place for a space cadet like Ramirez to begin his comeback.

The truth is baseball fans are suckers. How else can you explain the hysteria surrounding Manny’s return to baseball?  Over 40,000 tickets have been sold for the Albuquerque Isotopes four-game series against Nashville. The fans who have bought the tickets don’t really care why Man Ram is there. The fact that he was suspended 50-games for violating baseball’s drug policy and has to play in some minor league games to prepare for a return the Dodgers obviously doesn’t bother them, so why should it bother us?

After Manny finishes his stint in New Mexico he’ll rehab for two games with the Single-A club in San Bernardino, California. Ramirez is expected to play there Sunday and Monday, and both of those games are sellouts. How ironic is that Manny begins his minor league journey the day after the head of the players union Donald Fehr announces his retirement? As they say, timing is everything.

No doubt, the minor league hysteria surrounding his arrival will carry over to Manny’s Dodger Stadium homecoming. However July 3 in San Diego, when Ramirez is scheduled to return to the big leagues, you can bet the house that Manny will receive the Barry Bonds treatment and I’m not talking about intentional walks. Booing will be the least of his worries on the road.

Keep in mind that it wasn’t just a banned substance that cost him 50-games. He was taking a drug prescribed primarily for women. With Bonds, he was constantly pelted with syringes. I can only imagine what the creative fans will have waiting for Manny when he arrives.

I’ll bottom line it and give you my two cents: Baseball fans are as hypocritical as they come. They’ll bitch and moan about guys doing drugs unless it’s a guy on their team. And as much as I’d like to believe that Dodger fans will hold Ramirez to a higher standard, I’d be fooling myself. Myopic Dodger fans, who booed Barry Bonds for his steroid use, will roll out the red carpet and welcome him back with open arms. Just like they’ll do in Albuquerque and San Bernardino.

One final thought regarding Donald Fehr’s pending departure. Donald, I’ve got a great idea before you leave. How about you give the fans a nice parting gift and release that “list?” You know, the list that has the names of the other abusers on it? Because without it we’ll never truly know if guys like Albert Pujols or Raul Ibanez or Ryan Howard are clean. We’ll never know if we cheered loud enough for them or shouldn’t have cheered them in the first place.

Cheats like McGwire, Sosa, A-Rod and Bonds have made it difficult for us to know what’s real or synthetic. Now is the time for you, Donald Fehr, to do the right thing for baseball and the fans. Do it for the fans and the future of the game.

I’m showing some love today for the Houston Astros who showed signs of life this weekend taking two out of three from the Twins in Minnesota. The Royals were one of baseball’s biggest surprises early as they bolted out of the gates with an 18-11 record. But since they’ve dropped 18 of their last 29 games.

Zach Greinke gets the call tonight for the Royals as he tries to regain the form that saw him get off to an 8-1 with an ERA under a buck. Now Greinke is 8-3 and the ERA is just under 2.00. Those numbers are still great but mirror the recent struggles of his team.

Russ Ortiz, who has had more bounce-backs than he can count, is trying for another one with Houston. Seven years ago Ortiz was a poor Dusty Baker decision away from winning a World Series ring, now he’s fighting for a job in Houston after stops in Atlanta and Arizona just to name two.

Ortiz is 3-2 with a 3.60 ERA and is a key cog in an Astros pitching machine that has lowered its team ERA nearly one full run over the past 20 games. The Astros are making a nice, quiet run right now and I don’t forseee a lumping Royals team slow them down.

Free Pick: Astros +128

Our Tuesday night MLB interleague selection is on the Seattle Mariners home at Safeco Field over the San Diego Padres.

After a pretty hot start to the season in April (12-6 in their first 18 games), the Mariners hit a "cooling off" stretch which saw them go 9-20 over their next month of competition. But since then, Seattle has righted the ship again and has now won 14 of its last 22 games to get back to .500.  In fact, the Mariners just went over the .500 mark with a win on Sunday against the Diamondbacks.

The key for the Mariners has been the surprising pitching performances they've gotten from some of the most unlikely of sources, like starter Jarrod Washburn.  Even more surprising than Washburn has been the performance of starter Garrett Olson who wasn't even on the opening day roster, but now appears to have a full-time rotation job with this club and seems to be making the most of his opportunity.  With Erik Bedard back on the DL for a shoulder injury, the Mariners will likely be relying on Olson for as long as he can keep it up.

His last two starts were on the road against Baltimore and San Diego and he has earned this one back at home.  It's also a great matchup for him as he will face the Padres and struggling starter Chad Gaudin.  Gaudin just took the loss to Seattle in his last start at home and he is now 2-6 with a 5.98 ERA, not the kind of numbers San Diego was hoping for when they signed the veteran righthander about two weeks into the season.  Take the Mariners.

Free Pick: Mariners -133

When the Los Angeles Dodgers visit the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday, it will be on the 50th anniversary of the 1959 World Series matchup in which LA won that Series. If Chicago has plans to foil a repeat performance of that series they will have to continue to be on their game and have their newfound run support in place.

Jim Thome returns to the lineup to help the White Sox continue their recently improved run performance. Chicago is averaging 5.4 runs per game over their last seven outings against, a season average of 4.2 runs per game. They will need that on Tuesday against the Dodgers who average five runs per game over the season and 5.1 runs per game on the road.

Los Angeles sends Hiroki Juroda to the mound with an ERA of 3.86 over the season. Chicago starts with John Danks, who owns a 4.48 ERA on the season.  Kuroda is 1-3 on the road while Danks is 1-3 at home. Kuroda struggled in his last attempt against the Oakand A’s in which he game up five earned runs in six innings leading to a 5-4 loss. Danks pulled out a win in his last outing allowing only one run over seven innings of play.

Although the last three games between these two were played in LA, the White Sox won the series by taking two of three in June 2008.

Look for the road bats of the Dodgers to out-swing the home bats of the White Sox in this interleague matchup on Tuesday.

Free Pick: Dodgers +103

The Colorado Rockies enter into this contest against the Los Angeles Angels in red-hot form, as is evident by winning 17 of their last 18 games and outscoring their opponents during that span by an average of 3.16 RPG.

The Rockies bombed the Halos last night in Anaheim with an 11-1 win.  Aaron Cook held the Angels to three hits over seven innings to provide the pitching while Seth Smith, batting ninth in the DH role for Colorado, drove in four runs with a homer, single and sac fly.

With the Rockies starting hurler Ubaldo Jimenez in top form having garnered a 3-0 record along with a 2.43 ERA and 23 strikeouts while holding opposing batting orders to a .207 BA in his last four starts, the Mountain Men once again look to be a viable wagering option at a value price.

It must be noted that Jim Tracy, since taking over as the manager of Colorado, is 9-1 against the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or more and 9-1 against an above-.500 team like the Halos. Play on Colorado.

Free Pick: Rockies +100

Micah Owings of the Cincinnati Reds has turned his season around lately, and Brian Tallet is pitching much better than his numbers would indicate.

Owings was struggling earlier in the season, but he has now suddenly allowed two runs or less in three consecutive starts. In fact, he has pitched better than his 4-7 record for much of the season, but he has suffered from a lack of run support. Thus, it is really not surprising that the Under is 4-0 in his last four starts. Owings also benefits here from the fact that this will be the first time that the Blue Jays have ever faced him.

Similarly, the Reds will also be seeing Tallet for the first time ever here. Tallet is 4-4 with a 4.68 ERA overall, but his numbers are skewed by one dreadful performance vs. the Florida Marlins where he was charged with eight earned runs on 10 hits in just 3.1 innings. In actuality, he has allowed three runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts, and in 10 of his 13 starts this year overall.

Add in the fact that Cincinnati is batting a disgraceful .217 vs. left-handed pitching on the road this season, and we look for Tallet to have more success tonight, keying a rather safe Under.

Free Pick: Reds, Blue Jays Under 9 (+105)

The Colorado Rockies open a three-game series with the Angels when they send Aaron Cook to the hill in Anaheim Monday night.

Cook enters tonight's fray with a sharp 3-1 record in his last four road team starts with a 1.86 ERA, issuing four walks against 16 strikeouts in those games. He has also won his only other start in this park against the Halos in interleague play back in 2006.

Angels righthander Matt Palmer has been a money machine with the Halos 8-1 in his nine starts.  But his 35/22 strikeout-to-walk ratio is problematic and the Rockies come in the hottest team in the major leagues right now with 16 wins in their last 17 games.

With the Angels in off a big series with their intercity rival Dodgers, we'll back Cook and the Rockies here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Colorado with Cook.

Free Pick: Rockies +110

Aaron Cook for the Colorado Rockies and Matt Palmer of the Los Angeles Angels are both in fine form right now, so we do not see the combined total output of this contest coming near double-digits.

Cook is the Colorado ace, but he was off to a slow start this season. However, has now appear to have recaptured his All-Star form of last season, as he has reeled off three consecutive Quality Starts while allowing a total of only five runs in 21 innings. Cook has one of the bets groundball-to-flyball ratios in baseball at 2.47, and his sinker has gotten progressively better as the season has gone on.

Now we are still a tad skeptical about Palmer, as we do not feel his 6-0 record is a true representation of his ability, but we must admit that he too has gotten better with every start. We felt he was lucky early on as he put too many men on base, but he now has a 2.79 ERA with a much more respectable 1.29 WHIP in his last three starts. He also enjoys pitching in the smog of Anaheim, where he owns a 3.41 ERA this season.

Finally, the Under is 19-7-1 in the last 27 Colorado interleague games and this pitching matchup indicated that this pattern should continue tonight.

Free Pick: Rockies, Angels Under 9 (-120)

Just when you thought the Chicago Cubs were destined to play .500 baseball for the duration of the season, they’ve heated up for bettors.

After dropping five of six games coming off a three-game series with the Minnesota Twins last week, the Cubs (34-31, -4.97 units) have cashed four in a row against the moneyline. The hot streak up the MLB moneylist has lifted Chicago to within 2.5 games of the first-place St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. If the Cubs can get the payday in their make-up game with the Atlanta Braves (32-36, -10.07 units) on Monday night, they’ll have tied their longest winning stand of the season.

The teams split the first two games of their scheduled three-game set at Turner Field earlier this month, but the finale was postponed due to rain. The Braves won the opener 6-5 as -121 favorites on Chipper Jones’ run-scoring single in the bottom of the 12th inning, and the payday was the first against the Cubs in six tries. Including Chicago’s (+122) 3-2 victory over Atlanta the following night, the Cubs have taken seven of their last eight against the moneyline over the Braves dating back to last season.

Chicago outscored Atlanta 49-18 in the six-game sweep last season, including 29-9 at Turner Field. The Cubs hand the ball to Ryan Dempster (4-4, 3.92 ERA) on Monday night, with Lou Piniella hoping his offense can score some runs for the righthander. Just 5-9 against the moneyline in Dempster’s starts this season, Chicago is 0-3 in his last three outings despite his 1.89 ERA. Under bettors have cashed in on the Cubs’ inability to put runs on the board in Dempster’s starts, with the North Siders 0-3 O/U in the three games.  The total for this one has been set at 8 with the Under drawing the extra bit of chalk.

The Cubbies were listed as +120 underdogs for the contest at most sportsbooks through Sunday night, although they were available at +131 at one outlet. Oddsmakers had the Braves in the range of -133 to -140 on the moneyline with Javier Vazquez (4-6, 3.41 ERA) grabbing the rosin for Atlanta.

Vazquez has been dealt a similar fate as Dempster over his last three trips to the bump. Tied for the NL lead in strikeouts with the San Francisco Giants’ Tim Lincecum, Vazquez has received only eight runs of support over his last five starts. The Braves are 0-5 in those five games, and have played under the number in the last three games with Vazquez on the mound.

Atlanta has lost six of its last eight games, including two of three over the weekend in its three-game series at Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox. Nick Green’s walk-off home run off Braves reliever Jeff Bennett in the bottom of the ninth inning lifted Boston to cash on Sunday afternoon, as Atlanta was unable to reward their backers as +115 pups.