In Part 3 of this four-part series we reach the back half of the Top 20 where we start to get into the meat of this year's college football teams, including Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson Tide.
20. North Carolina: It's all about talent and recruiting and Butch Davis knows how to do that. The Tar Heels are off an 8-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS season, going to a bowl. This offense was productive, despite a lot of injuries, averaging 27.5 points, 125 yards rushing and 192 passing. Junior QB T.J. Yates is back after throwing for 11 TDs, 4 picks and 1,168 yards in half a season (battling injuries).
His top wideouts are gone, but Davis has a slew of potential NFL prospects in John Blake, Todd Harrelson, Dwight Jones and Rashad Mason. Converted defensive back RB Shaun Draughn (866 yards, 4.4 ypc) provided a spark, and begins his sophomore season as the feature back. North Carolina was 8-4 over the total, with a good offense and a defense that allowed 20.3 ppg. There is plenty of hope under Davis and another bowl is likely.
19. Michigan State: Mark Dantonio has turned the program around. They are off an impressive 9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS campaign and have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense. The tough news is they lost their key players on offense in senior QB Brian Hoyer and power RB Javon Ringer. Sophomore QB Kirk Cousins (310 yards, 2 TDs and one pick) steps in, though QB Keith Nichol, the one-time super-recruit, is available.
There is a lot of experience at wideout and they hope for more from junior WR Mark Dell, who tore up Cal in the opener (9 catches, 202 yards), but wasn’t consistent. The defense allowed 21.9 ppg and has much of its top talent back. They were good overall, but gave up 49 to Penn State, 45 to Ohio State and 38 to Cal. There is a ton of returning experience, led by junior LB Greg Jones and DE Trevor Anderson leading a good front seven. The schedule is easier, though note that Michigan State is 9-18 ATS its last 27 home games.
18. Oregon: Head coach Mike Bellotti stepped down after his 14th season, taking over for Pat Kilkenny as athletic director. His timing was good, after back-to-back seasons of 9-4 SU/ATS and 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS. There is a lot of talent returning for new head coach Chip Kelly, the former offensive coordinator. His spread attack averaged 42 points, 277 yards rushing and 200 passing!
They are loaded at quarterback with junior QB Jeremiah Masoli is (13 TDs, 5 picks), who ran for 718 yards. Junior QB Nate Costa is highly thought of but didn't play in 2007 or 2008 because of an ACL injury. The offensive line lost its top players, so we will see how that affects senior RB LeGarrette Blount (1,002 yards, 17 TDs, averaging 7.3 ypc.) On defense, three-fourths of the interior is gone, headed by Pac-10 sack leader Nick Reed, while rover Patrick Chung was lost to the NFL in the second round, so the secondary has some shoes to fill. They get USC at home and the only tough road game is at Arizona.
17. Georgia Tech: Is there a better football coach than Paul Johnson? He worked wonders at Navy, then took over a .500 Georgia Tech program and went a sizzling 9-4 (8-3 ATS). This is a run-oriented team that averaged 282 yards rushing, 95 passing and 26 points. Johnson recruits speed for his option-attack and found an ace in junior QB Josh Nesbitt. He wasn't much of a passer (2 TDs, 5 picks, 43% completions), but ran the option for 693 yards.
Tech returns 17 starters, nine on offense and eight on defense. On offense, every skill position player returns, paced by junior B-back Jonathan Dwyer (1,395 yards, 7 yards per carry, 12 TDs), the 2008 ACC Player of the Year. All five offensive linemen who started the final four games of the season return, paced by second team All-ACC guard Cord Howard. The defense allowed just 18.8 ppg and is loaded. Georgia Tech carries a 7-4 run under the total into the new season.
16. BYU: Coming off a nationally ranked 10-3 season in 2008, the Cougars are rolling under head coach Bronco Mendenhall. The offense was electric, averaging 35 points, 135 yards rushing and 309 passing behind QB Max Hall (35 TDs, 14 picks, 3,957 yards), who is back for his senior season. Junior RB Harvey Unga (1,132 yards) is a bull.
The defense is stocked with eight starters back. The Cougars were the nation’s sixth-ranked passing offense last season at 310 yards per game and have been ranked in the top six in the country in three of Mendenhall's four seasons in Provo. BYU is 18-9-1 OVER the total the last three years with a deadly offense. September games against Oklahoma and Florida State are tough ones, but they are the favorite to roll to another MWC title.
15. Florida State: Hard to believe a football factory like Florida State is off back-to-back 7-6 and 9-4 seasons, but it's true. But hopes are high, with 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense. The offense (32.7 ppg) has junior QB Christian (14 TDs, 13 picks) and don't rule out sophomore QB E.J. Manuel, a terrific recruit from 2008. This ground game is loaded behind a strong offensive line and sophomore RB Jermaine Thomas (482 yards, a whopping 7 yards per carry).
The Florida State defense was strong up front, allowing 20.8 ppg, ranked 13th nationally in total defense. Both outside linemen are gone, but FSU returns two of its starters on the interior in Kendrick Stewart and Budd Thacker. The Seminoles led the nation in third down conversion defense last season. They are 3-1 SU/ATS their last 4 road games. A September trip out to Utah to play BYU is odd, plus they end the season with three of four tough road games (at Clemson, Wake and Florida).
14. Alabama: The third season for Coach Nick Saban and his first two Tide teams started strong and finished weak. Last season, they started 10-0, then lost to Florida in the SEC title game (31-20) and had nothing left for the bowl, a 31-17 loss to Utah as a big favorite. Oddsmakers were perplexed in 2007 as 'Bama was 4-8 ATS, but went 9-4 ATS last season. Saban prefers the power running game and last year's squad averaged 31 points and 196.5 yards rushing. They return nine starters on defense, four on offense.
Junior QB Greg McElroy was the backup and steps in, though he only threw 11 passes. The ground game is loaded behind the powerful Mark Ingram, along with veterans Roy Upchurch and Terry Grant and highly touted freshman Trent Richardson. Ingram ran for 728 yards and a team-high 12 touchdowns as a freshman, plus 6-4 sophomore WR Julio Jones was great as a freshman, with 58 catches for 924 yards. The terrific defense allowed 13 ppg. Alabama LB Rolando McClain and nose guard Terrence Cody were selected to the 2009 Lott Trophy Watch List, leading the nation's second-best rush defense. Road games at Georgia, Tennessee and LSU will make this a more challenging schedule than last season.
13. Kansas: The Jayhawks have senior QB Todd Reesing (32 TDs, 13 picks, 3,888 yards) back, after a 2008 campaign where they averaged 32.7 points, 129 yards rushing and 302 passing. 8 starters are back on offense, 7 on 'D'. Senior WR Kerry Meier (1,045 yards) and junior WR Dezmon Briscoe anchor a dynamite air game.
The Jayhawks also have senior RB Jake Sharp (860 yards, 4.6 ypc). Second-year defensive coordinator Clint Bowen has some holes to fill on a suspect defense that allowed 29.5 ppg, going 4-4 in the Big 12. Does that make the Jayhawks a team to look at over the total?
12. California: This is one great coaching staff at Cal, led by head coach Jeff Tedford. They are off a 9-4 SU/ATS campaign and the offense has 7 starters returning, the defense 8, including QB Kevin Riley and stud RB Jahvid Best. Cal's offense averaged 33 points, 187 yards rushing and 195 yards passing. Riley threw for 1,360 yards, 14 TDs, 6 INTs and doesn't have to share time with Nate Longshore. In his career he is 7-2 as a starter.
The offensive line returns three starters, blocking for star junior tailback Jahvid Best (1,580 yards, 8.1 ypc), a Heisman contender. He and sophomore RB Shane Vereen (715 yards, 5.0 ypc) give Cal the best backfield duo in the country. The defense returns 8 starters to a unit that allowed 20 points and 3.9 yards per rush. The 3-4 was so successful that all four linebackers earned All-Pac-10 recognition, with LB Mike Mohamed returning. The schedule isn't that bad and they get USC at home October 3, which is the BIG ONE.
11. Virginia Tech: The Hokies (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS) had another powerful defense that allowed 17.5 ppg. Despite a young team and all kinds of running back injuries, Coach Frank Beamer's team won a second straight ACC title. They were rebuilding in 2008, so expectations are high in 2009 with so much returning talent. The offense is a ball control unit that averaged just 167 yards rushing (3.8 ypc), just 128 passing, but their 28.7 and 22.2 points per game the last two years is because the defense set up great field position (or scored).
The QB situation is strong with mobile junior Tyrod Taylor (1,036 yards, 2 TDs, 7 picks, 738 rushing yards). Soph RB Darren Evans (1,265 yards) was lost for the season with an August injury, but there is a lot of backfield depth. The defense is loaded once again with sophomore defensive tackle Antoine Hopkins, defensive end Isaiah Hamlette and LB Derrick McCoy. They carry a 5-1 run under the total into this season.
Read Part 1 and Part 2; follow Feist on Twitter.