It is the rematch most talked about, a game that some thought
should not happen but for fans of LSU and Alabama it was the only satisfactory
possibility. Can ‘Bama gain their revenge or will the Tigers beyond a doubt
prove their superiority?
John Ryan has a 20 * graded play on Alabama as they take on LSU
in the BCS Championship game. He has also recorded a podcast for the game and thank you message to all those that contributed to his thread and analysis.
This is a rematch of the defensively dominated first meeting
where LSU came from behind and then won in overtime 9-6.
The College Football
Betting Line
The line for this Championship game opened at pick-em and that
certainly was not a surprise given how incredibly equal these two teams have been
this year and they are now playing the game in a neutral location. The Superdome is in
New Orleans and not a bad distance from the LSU home in the state capital of
Baton Rouge, but Tuscaloosa is not a big drive either. The BCS attempts to
spread ticket sales evenly, but I think there probably will be a few more
yellow jerseys in the stands, but not enough to make a significant difference
on the field.
The line has slowly ground its way to the current level of Alabama
favored by 2 points and laying -110. This line movement was in direct
contrast to nearly 65% of all bets being made, at 12 sportsbooks that I monitor, on LSU. This immediately implies that the sharps and big money
players are on Alabama and I never mind being with that crowd.
As a reminder, I am already set with a 5* play on the
‘over’ in this game and the article can be found at this link. This
line opened at 40 -110 December 4 and was bet immediately to 39.5 -110 price
level. December 5, the line moved to 39 where strong ‘over’ bets pushed the
line back to 39.5 where it oscillated between 39 and 39.5 through December 8.
The ‘over’ bets continued to come in and propelled the line to it’s historic
high of 41 -105 set on December 24. Since then the line has moved back to it’s
opening level of 40 -110 and a level I expect to be extremely solid between now
and game time. I like the ‘OVER” for a 5* amount.
Simulator projections are
on Alabama
My proprietary sports betting database and simulator show a
high probability that Alabama will win this game by three or more points. The
simulator shows a high probability that Alabama will gain between 150 and 200
rushing yards in this game. In past games where the Crimson Tide have gained this measure of rushing success they are 3-0 ATS this season and 8-0 ATS the
past three seasons.
The biggest difference between the two teams is that Alabama has
a more balanced offensive scheme. Alabama runs the ball 57% and throws 43% of
all plays run this season. By comparison, LSU runs the ball 67% and throws just
33% of all plays run this season.
Alabama used the ‘bunch’ formation successfully in the first
meeting. The bunch formation will feature two wide receivers and a tight end on
the strong side of the offensive formation. I also expect the Alabama defense to outperform the LSU version
in this game. The simulator shows a high probability that LSU will not gain
more than 300 yards of total offense. In past games where Alabama has allowed
250 to 300 offensive yards they are 7-1 ATS over the past three seasons.
Supporting System
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a
record of 45-18 for 71.4% winners spanning the last 10 seasons. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 that are
outgaining their opponents by 2.5 or more passing yards per attempt and after
allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game.
Here is a second money line system
supporting Alabama that has produced a solid 34-15 record for 69.4% winners.
Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after failing to cover the
spread in three out of their last four games and is a top level team that is
winning 80% or more of their games on the season.
Take
the Alabama Crimson Tide and Thanks again for a very strong College and Pro
Football season.