Boise State has to win and win big if they are going to impress BCS officials. Expect an all-out effort from the Broncos in a high-scoring game at Louisiana Tech on Friday.
Remember the old saying 'a win is a win'? That’s not the case in college football these days, especially if you’re the Boise State Broncos and waging two battles each week.
Every game is huge for Boise State. They’ve not only got the pressure to win but to do it convincingly. A win is good but a rout is almost mandatory. Such is life for the fifth-ranked Broncos who will be in Ruston, Louisiana tonight to battle Louisiana Tech.
Boise State is a perfect 8-0, including a 3-0 mark in the Western Athletic Conference.
Boise has won by a large margin in all but two games. They opened the season with an 11-point victory over Oregon, a victory that gets more impressive with each passing week. The beat Tulsa by seven but other than those two close calls they’ve rolled. Take away those two games and the Broncos are on the right end of a 47-13 margin of victory.
Louisiana Tech has a couple of “positives” working in its favor tonight. This is Boise State’s third road trip in four weeks with previous stops in Tulsa and Honolulu. Could jet lag be a factor tonight? Stranger intangibles have been known to affect a point spread.
La Tech is also a much better home team as indicated by their 3-0 mark vs. a road ledger of 0-5. On the season Louisiana Tech is averaging 27 points per game while allowing 24 per outing. The Bulldogs have won ten of their last 11 games at home (SU) with the lone loss coming to Boise State. The Broncos suffice to say have dominated this series winning seven in a row by an average of nearly 26 points per game.
QB Kellen Moore spearheads the Boise attack. He’s first in the nation with a passer rating of 171 and has thrown for 1,905 yards on this season with 24 touchdowns against just two interceptions. Austin Pettis, arguably one of the top wide receivers in the nation, has hauled in 41 passes including nine touchdowns. Moore is complimented by RB Jeremy Avery who has rushed for 638 yards on the season.
It’s worth noting that both Avery and Pettis attended high school less than an hour away from USC and UCLA but yet spurned the bigger schools for life in the WAC. That’s how big this Boise State football program has become.
Boise State also has the nation's 10th-ranked defense and is 11th in allowing an average of 13.6 points. It has forced six fumbles and 13 interceptions for the nation's fifth-best turnover ratio. Those numbers spell trouble for a Louisiana Tech offense that ranks 60th in the nation in total yards and 81st in passing yards per game.
Most of the trends support a play on the Broncos despite the heavy lumber. Boise is on a 9-2 ATS road run as a favorite and 12-3-1 ATS their last 15 WAC games. and given there history, there's a strong side from this corner for the 'over' with these two teams involved in some real shootouts in the past.
In 2007, the Broncos outlasted the Bulldogs 45-31 and the year before that rolled to a 55-14 victory. The Broncos have averaged nearly 44 points in winning their last eight series meetings and are coming off back-to-back blowouts of San Jose State and Hawaii by a combined 99-16.
Look for a Boise State win and the 'over' to cover. With the Broncos needing every possible point, don’t look for coach Chris Petersen to let up on the gas tonight. That will be good for Boise and good for us.
Free Pick: Boise St-Louisiana Tech Over 50 (-110)