Nevada's offense has put up some eye-popping numbers on the ground, but they won't have the same success against the Boise State Broncos on Friday night.
Nevada's offense has been rolling through the weak WAC teams while averaging a mind-numbing 438 rushing yards at 8.7 yards per rushing play and 579 total yards at 8.4 yppl in those seven conference wins.
The Wolf Pack has also allowed 6.3 yppl to those weak WAC opponents and that defense won't have a chance to stopping Boise's prolific attack in this game.
Boise St. is averaging 6.8 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and the Broncos have averaged 47 points per game in their 10 games since facing Oregon's very good defense in their opening game.
Nevada's defense, while horrible on a yards per play basis, actually allows a not so bad 25.6 points per game to teams that would combine to average 23 points against an average team, so Boise might not get their standard 47 points (although they should be close to that).
Nevada's offense hasn't faced a good defense since averaging just 5.0 yppl and scoring only 21 points in a home loss to Missouri in Week 3, so there is no evidence to suggest that the Wolf Pack will be able to move the ball easily against a good Boise State defense that's yielded just 4.8 yppl this season (to teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team).
That defense did give up some big running plays to Fresno State's great rushing attack, so Nevada should be able to score a good number of points. I just don't think it will be enough to stay within two touchdowns on a field where the Broncos are 20-3 ATS in conference games when not favored by 26 points or more. My math model favors Boise State by 17 points and I see no need to vary from that projection.
Projected Final Score: Broncos-45 Wolf Pack-28
Free Pick: Boise St. -13½ (-110)
